I’ve Been Bigly And Bad (The Trump Musical) - here full manuscript. The reviews are fantastic:
‘Sidesplittingly funny’ - Variety
‘Hilarious, you’ll die laughing’ - Village Voice
‘Superb, magnificent, hysterical’ - Time
‘Best show on Broadway 27 years running’ - Newsweek
‘Disgraceful and disrespectful of the former President languishing in prison’ - Fox
Here is the original manuscript of the runaway hit Broadway Musical of the dumbest American President including all the parody songs we so love, from the Beatles to Elvis to Queen to Abba to Justin Timberlake to Creedence Clearwater Revival and Bing Crosby. 21 parody songs and a script to put the sillyness together for you. As you might not always remember exactly how that given song went, I have included a link to the original recording so you can match the original artist singing to the new lyrics in this parody version. Enjoy
Excerpt from the Broadway play program guide: I've Been Bigly And Bad (The Trump Musical) is America's longest-running hit Broadway play now in its 28th year selling to sold-out rooms. Featuring 21 parody songs the play chronicles the short but increasingly messy Presidency of the man now listed as 'Moron-In-Chief' in history textbooks. The Musical features numbers covering all main characters from this chaotic point in US politics, including Rudy Giuliani, Michael Cohen, Vice President Pence, Vladimir Putin, Stormy Daniels, Sarah Sanders and all the names we now associate with that shameful period like Avenatti, Melania, Mueller, Maddow, Kelly, Scaramucci, Don Jr, etc. The musical includes the popular confession song by Trump of his true feelings about President Obama.
ACT 1 - STORMY
(Curtain opens)
(a dishevilled middle aged office worker man is working hunched in a dark office, overstuffed with books, cobwebs, dust, he is working on some accounting ledgers and consulting paperwork)
(door opens)
Secretary - Mr Cohen, here is Mr Trump’s latest pornstar’s contract
Cohen - Thank you Mildred, place it on the pile of porn star contracts there
(Michael Cohen, Donald Trump's attorney and 'fixer' pauses, stretches on his chair, gets up, starts to sing)
(a choir forms to sing backup for Cohen)
MONEY MONEY MONEY
(Abba) (Link to the song)
I work all night, I work all day, to pay Trump girls I have to pay
(Ain't it sad)
And still there never seems to be a payment from Trump back to me
(Makes him mad!)
In my dreams I have a plan, I’m gonna sing to the Mueller man
I wouldn't have to lie at all, I'd tell the truth: I taped the call!
Money, money, money, to that honey, it’s the Stormy girl
Money, money, money, must be runny, in the Trump man's world
Aha-ahaaa, all the things he can hide
As he has a little money, tt's a Trump man's world
A girl like that is hard to find but Trump can't get them off his mind
(Ain't it sad)
And if one’s willing for a hump, we know they’d never fancy Trump
(That's too bad)
So he must leave, he’ll have to go, To Las Vegas or else Moscow
A prostitute will have no shame, his life will never be the same...
Money, money, money, Playboy Bunny, in the Trump man's world
Money, money, money, ‘Pee Tape’s’ funny, in the Trump man's world
Aha-ahaaa, no more things he can hide
As he’s having no more money, it's a Trump man's world
Yes every woman understands, about the man with tiny hands...
(Ain’t it bad?)
The sex so lame, you have to pay, and make them sign an NDA
(Ain’t it sad?)
To find his wives, he'll have to go, Slovenia or Kosovo
And pay a fortune in a sham, else no woman takes that man
Its just: money, money, money; never sunny, in the Trump man’s world.
Its just, money, money, money, pretend honey, is the Trump man’s girl.
(Spotlight dims, Cohen turns around, walks back to the desk and resumes his work)
(while office light dims into darkness, a spotlight lights up the front of the stage)
(Trump walks onto the front of the stage, dressed in a business suit. Behind him his Hitler Jugend kids walk in all wearing matching Nazi uniforms, the boys carrying stuffed heads of lions and giraffes)
Trump - hey kids, isn’t it great to be a Trump?
Trump Kids (in perfect unison) - Yes, dad, we love being a Trump
Trump - now wait while I make a phone call
(Trump walks to edge of stage, mumbles into a phone)
(Trump kids talk amongst themselves)
Ivanka (to Don Jr) - So, Junior, are you going to take the fall for daddy? You know, lie about the Trump tower meeting with the Russians?
Don Jr - I dunno…daddy has never shown me as much love he’s shown you
Ivanka - Are you jealous of our relationship? You know that I’ve always been daddy’s favourite! That thing he said about me to Stormy just proves how much he loves me. Besides, daddy has shown how much he loves you – he wanted to bang your ex-wife, so that should be proof enough! Anyway, jnr, remember, the 4 of us Trumps stick together, coz if one goes down, we all go down
(Trump finishes his phone call and calls out to his kids)
Trump - Lets sing our song
PUTTIN’ ON THE RITZ
(Irving Berlin)(here link to song)
If you're blue and you don't know where to go to
Why don't you go where treason sits?
Puttin' on the fritz.
Different Trumps who wear a bad suit pants with stripes
And cutaway coat with portly fits:
Puttin' on the fritz.
Dressed up like a billion dollar loser.
Trying mighty hard to look like Putin’s Pooper.
(Super-scooper)
Come let's mix where fortune-tellers walk with crooks
And con-artists in their midsts.
Puttin' on the fritz.
(Trump family exits Stage Left)
(lights dim, the curtain closes)
(the people suddenly stop moving)
(all people on the stage start to sing)
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
(Queen)(link to song)
Is this his real life?
Is this his fantasy?
Caught in a big lie,
No escape from reality!
Open your eyes,
Stop telling lies,
And seeeeee...
You're just a rich boy,
You have no empathy.
Your lies are easy come, easy go -
We go high, you go low.
Any way your hair blows,
No one really wants to see....
To-oo seee...
Melania, he's killing us...
Putting guns in teachers’ hands,
Spreading discourse through the land,
Melania, we were already great...
And now he’s gone and blown it all away.
Melania...ew ew ew
How the hell d’you touch that man?
If you left town with someone else tomorrow ...
we’d understand....we’d understand.
Because he’s a cheating bastard.
Oh God.
He is so dumb!
Send shivers down my spine,
my head’s aching all the time.
Goodbye Donald Trump!
You’ve got to go!
Just leave us all alone, and tell the truth!
Melania ...oo oo ooo!
I don’t wanna die!
I sometimes wish he’d never been born at all!
Carry on, carry on
Coz I don’t care, do you?
I see a little silhouetto of a man.
Scaramucci, Scaramucci how you did the fandango!
Trade wars and tax scams,
Very, very frightening to me!
O Pompeo! O Pompeo!
O Pompeo doncha know?
Pinocchioooo!
I’m just a rich boy,
Nobody loves me!
(He's just a rich boy,
From a weird family!)
Spare us our lives from this monstrosity!
Easy come easy why won’t you just go?
Bismillah! No! We will not let you stay - make him go!
Bismillah! We will not let you stay - make him go!
Bismillah! We will not let you stay (let me stay!)
Will not let you stay (let me stay!)
Never, never!
No, no, no, no, no, no, no!
Oh mama mia, mama mia,
just let America go!
Beelzebub has a devil put aside for you,
For you,
For you!
So you think you‘ll betray us and spit in our eye?
So you think you’ll be treasonous and leave us to die?
Oh ya Big Baby, can’t do that to us. Maybe
you oughta get out, just gotta get out of the White House.
Ooh yeah, ooh yeah...
Nothing really matters...
Anyone can see...
Nothing really matters,
nothing really matters to meeee...
'Cept for grabbing pussyyyy...
(Trump walks in from Stage Right with Melania. Trump grabs a picture from a table and looks at it)
Trump - Hey Melanie, er, Melania, what’s that picture I see of you smiling with the worst president ever – Obama? Why don’t you ever smile in photos with me?
Melania - Oh Donnie, you know Obama is way hotter than you and if I could just…you know his hands are larger than yours…?
Trump - Well, Ivanka is way hotter than you…if I could just…
Melania - You already have Donnie…
Trump - I have to go make a phone call
(Trump leaves through the door on Stage Right)
(Melania sings)
WHITE CHRISTMAS
(Bing Crosby)(link to song)
I'm dreaming of a sane POTUS
The way Obama used to be
Where reporters listen, including Wolf Blitzer
To hear sane answers factually
(curtain closes)
Voice 1 female (off stage) - yes, did you have an appointment?
Voice 2 female (off stage) - yes, I am here to see Mr Trump
Voice 1 female (off stage) - what is your name
Voice 2 female (off stage) - Stormy Daniels
Voice 1 female (off stage) - yes, Mr Trump is waiting for you, step right into his office.
(Curtain opens)
(bedroom scene)
(Trump nearly naked, dressed in white underpants, wearing black socks, lies in his bed)
(a sexily-clad voluptuous woman climbs out of the bed, walks off the stage)
Trump - Stormy, don’t go! Spank me one more time!
(door slams shut)
(Trump climbs out of bed looks into audience and starts to sing)
MAMMA MIA
(Abba)(here link to song)
I've been cheating on her, since I don't know when.
So I made up my mind, Stormy comes to an end.
Look at me now, will I ever learn?
I don't know how, but I suddenly lose control;
There is nothing within my soul.
Golden shower I can hear a bell ring;
One stolen kiss, and I forget everything, w-o-o-o-oh.
Stormy Stormy, here we go again!
My my, how can I resist you?
Stormy Stormy, does it show again?
My my, just how much I've missed you.
Yes, I've been pussygrabbing;
Blue since I had your spanking.
Why, why did I ever let you go?
Melania, she should never know,
My my, I can never let you go.
I've been bigly and bad, about the things that I do.
I can't count all the wives that I've cheated with you.
And when you go, Putin slams the door;
I think he knows, they won’t be pee’ing on me for long.
You know that I'm not that strong.
Prostitutes, and I can hear a bell ring;
One Playmate. and I forget everything, w-o-o-o-oh.
Stormy Stormy, here we go again!
My my, how can I resist you?
Stormy Stormy, does it show again?
My my, just how much I've missed you.
Yes, I've been pussygrabbing;
Blue since I had your spanking.
Why, why did I ever let you go?
Melania, she should never know,
My my, I can never let you go.
(phone rings, rings twice)
(Trump walks up to the phone, stares at it)
(phone rings a third time, then fourth)
(Trump picks up the phone)
Trump - yes, dear? I am still at the office yes, the meeting is running late, but why don’t you start with dinner, Melania, I’ll get there as soon as I can.
(Trump hangs up the phone)
(Trump walks up to the table on the side, snorts some cocaine)
(Michael Cohen walks in from Stage Left carrying a device in his hand. Cohen looks at Trump doing cocaine in the right corner)
Cohen (talks to the audience) - The one iron rule I have learned about Donald Trump is, that whatever Trump says that is always a lie. You could in fact call it the Iron Rule of Trump. Whatever he says is never the truth.
(Trump notices Cohen)
Trump - Hey Michael
Cohen - Yes boss?
(Trump sings)
YAKETY YAK
(Coasters)(link to song)
Take out the porn stars and the trash!
And don’t you pay them too much cash.
If you can’t shut up that Playboy whore,
Send some goons to beat her more.
Yakety yak:
Don’t tape that!
My golden showers starting soon;
Lets get the guards to leave the room.
Move all those porn tapes out of sight;
So my wife won’t know this night!
Yakety yak:
Don’t tape that!
Just finish moving money soon,
Putin cash coming in by noon.
The G-O-P and N-R-A,
will move that cash and sneak away!
Yakety yak:
Don’t tape that!
(Trump walks back to his table, snorts some more cocaine)
(Cohen looks at the item in his hand. It is an old-fashioned cassette tape recorder. Cohen takes a tape from his pocket, sticks it into the cassette recorder. He grabs a microphone from Trump’s bedside table, sticks the mic cable into the tape recorder. Then he uses it like a rock singer’s microphone and starts to sing)
Cohen (talks to the audience) - The second iron rule I have learned about Donald Trump is, that whenever Trump denies something, that is always the truth.
(Cohen sings alone, he is later joined by a large choir)
I’D LIKE TO TEACH THE WORLD TO SING (IN PERFECT HARMONY)
(also known as the ‘Coca Cola song’)
(The New Seekers)(link to the song)
I'd like to tape-record the world,
And tarnish it with Trump.
Show whopper lies and bigly crimes,
And snow white cocaine gloves.
I'd like to give the Feds this sting,
In perfect treachery.
I'd wire-tap Republicans,
In present company.
I'd like to see Deplorables,
All cuffed from hand to hand.
And hear them echo through the hills,
On tapes throughout the land.
That's the crimes I hear,
That the boys sing today;
Its the crimes that I hear,
That won’t go away.
(Trump walks off the stage)
(A group of people walk onto the stage, the choir, in various civian clothes, depicting normal people, they settle into a choir formation at the center of the stage. Michael Cohen steps in front of them and stands, waiting)
(Michael Cohen sings, the cast join him as backup singers)
(the piano intro to John Lennon’s Imagine starts to play)
IMAGINE
(John Lennon)(link to video of song)
Imagine a recording,
It's easy if you try.
Our Trump among us:
Telling how he’s gonna lie.
Imagine all the voters,
Hearing it today!
You may say he’s a moron,
But he’s not the only one;
Cohen really did record all!
And that Trump will be gone.
(curtain closes as Michael Cohen walks through curtains, light dims)
(Trump walks onto the stage with a well-dressed attorney, Rudy Giuliani)
Trump - I’d like you to represent me in this horrible fight with Michael Cohen
Giuliani - sure, Mr Trump, I’d be delighted to
Trump - Cohen is really a nobody, I barely knew him, he’s done nothing for my company
Giuliani - I understand, yes Mr Trump, I understand
(Trump and Giuliani stop and seem to discuss something privately. The light dims.)
(A spotlight points to Stage Lett. Michael Cohen walks into the spotlight and stops)
Cohen (talks to the audience) - The third iron rule of Trump that I have learned, is that for every Trump opinion there has to be an equal and opposite Trump opinion. Just earlier this week Trump said how much he loved me and my work.
(the spotlight dims. Cohen steps away from the stage)
(Giuliani shakes Trump’s hand. Trump walks away. Giuliani walks up to center stage and the lights come on)
(a choir of supreme court justices walk onto the stage, in very sexy robes)
(Giuliani sings, the choir of justices join to sing the chorus parts and some of the song is done split duet singing)
SEXY BACK
(Justin Timberlake)(link to song)
I'm bringing lying back
Other attorneys don't know how to act
I think I'm special, yet I know jack?
I’ll turn around the truth to twist the facts
Take it to the bridge
Dirty mean
You see these wrinkles
On my face you see
I’ll just lie all time and misbehave
Giuliani makes you feel this way
Take it to the chorus
Come Rudy
Giuliani go with it
Stray from the facts
Go Rudy, be gone with it
Insane Man
Go ahead, be gone with it
Lies on me
Go ahead, be gone with it
Let me see what you're twisting with
Go ahead, be gone with it
Look at those lips
Giuliani go with it
You are so vile
Go ahead, be gone with it
Rudy man-child
Go ahead, be gone with it
And get your lying on
Go ahead, be gone with it
I’m bringing Rudy back
(No!)
The motherfucker don’t know how to act
(No!)
He lies for Trump and now picks up the slack
(No!)
He’ll burn in Hell as Rudy lies so fast
(No!)
Giuliani on
Go ahead, be gone with it
Giuliani on
Go ahead, be gone with it
Get you Rudy on
Take it to the chorus!
Come here girl
Giuliani is that git
Come to the back
Go ahead, be gone with it
Asshole man
Go ahead, be gone with it
Joke’s on you
Giuliani is that git
Let me see what you're twisting with
Go ahead, be gone with it
Look at those lips
Giuliani go with it
You are so vile
Go ahead, be gone with it
Rudy man-child
Go ahead, be gone with it
And get your lying on
Go ahead, be gone with it
You loonie?
(Yes!)
You loonie?
(Yes!)
Giuliani?
(Yes!)
You loonie?
(Yes!)
Take it to the chorus
(curtain closes)
Male voice (off stage) - CNN Breaking News, here is Wolf Blitzer
Wolf Blitzer (off stage) - CNN has just learned that pornstar Stormy Daniels attorney, Michael Avenatti has signed up more women and he says that Michael Cohen has over 100 tape recordings of conversations. Stay tuned to this breaking story.
(curtain opens, the full cast is ready to sing, the porn stars are in the front row)
ITS RAINING MEN
(The Weather Girls)(link to song)
Hi! We're your porno girls
(Ah-huh)
And have we got news for you
(You better listen)
Get ready, all you Trumpy girls
And leave the NDAs at home
(Alright!)
Hannity is rising
(Mmm rising)
Broidy's getting low
(How low, girl? Uh-oh)
According to all Trumpsters
(What Trumpsters, now?)
The court's the place to go
(We'd better hurry up)
Cause tonight for the first time
Just about those bastard apes,
For the first time in history
It's gonna start raining tapes!
Start raining tapes
It's raining tapes! Hallelujah!
It's raining tapes! Amen!
I'm gonna go out to run and rip it all up:
That N-D-A was all fucked up!
God bless Avenatti, he's Stormy’s lawyer too
He ripped up the contracts, Stormy did what she had to do
He taught fallen angels, and rearranged the sky
So that each and every pornstar could sue that bastard guy
It's raining tapes! Hallelujah!
It's raining tapes! Amen!
Tall, dark, thug and mean
Cohen last? In prison seen!
(curtain falls)
(intermission)
ACT 2 - HELSINKI
(Curtain is closed)
Male announcer (off stage) - Stay tuned for breaking news on CNN
Wolf Blitzer (off stage) - CNN can report breaking news, that President Trump will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in..
(a Wolf Blitzerish dramatic pause)
Wolf Blitzer (off Stage) - ..Hel-sinki, Finland. We go to our Dana Bash for more details What can you tell us Dana?
Dana Bash (off stage) - Yes, Wolf, Trump will be meeting Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, and the meeting will be just the two of them and their interpreters. Nobody else will join them.
Wolf Blitzer (off stage) - Isn’t that unusual for a meeting like this?
Dana Bash (off stage) - Yes, Wolf, this has never been done before and many on Capitol Hill are expressing grave concerns about this type of meeting)
(the curtain opens, there are two podiums three flags: Finland, USA and Russia)
(the cast is seated on the floor, facing the podiums. They get up, turn to face the audience, and settle into a choir formation in front of the stage)
BAD MOON RISING
(Creedence Clearwater Revival)(link to song)
I see the bad mood rising,
I see Putin on the way.
I see censorship, its frightning!
I see bad times today.
Don't go Tweet tonight.
Trump Tower you knew all right.
There’s a bad mood on the rise.
I hear Michael Cohen a-singing,
I know the end is coming soon.
I see Giuliani lying,
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Don't go Tweet tonight.
Trump Tower you knew all right.
There’s a bad mood on the rise.
Hope you got your act together,
Hope you are quite prepared for life.
Prison food can seem like nasty weather,
Your bed shared with your prison wife.
(the crew turn back to face the podiums and settle to sit on the floor)
(Trump’s podium shrinks, Putin’s podium grows on the stage, Putin, a smaller man than Trump, is rising on his podium to be towering over Trump and Trump bends his knees to seem even shorter and smaller behind his podium)
(Trump sings)
YESTERDAY
(The Beatles)(link to video)
Suddenly,
I’m not half the man you thought I’d be.
There’s a Putin looming over me,
Oh Helsinki came suddenly.
Why I had to go?
I don’t know, I cannot say.
I said everything wrong,
NATO left in disarray, ay, ay, ay.
Dossier?
All those spies they seemed so far away.
Now it looks as though they’re here to stay.
Oh I prefer the Putin’s way.
Why'd I have to say?
I “would” say, I “wouldn't” say?
I said something wrong.
Now I want to run away!
Yesterday!
Strength was such an easy game to play.
Now I need to yell at Merkel, or May,
I don’t believe in USA
(Putin’s podium is lowered to normal height, both men depart to their respective ends of the stage)
(the choir gets up, turns to face the audience, settle again in choir formation in front of the stage)
WATERLOO
(Abba)(link to song)
My my
At Helsinki Our Trumpster did surrender
Oh yeah
And he had met his destiny in quite a Russian way
The history book on the shelf
Is always repeating itself
Helsinki! Trump was defeated, they won the war
Treasonous! Promise to love Putin ever more
Meddling! Couldn't admit if he wanted to
Evidence! Knowing the facts he still lies to you
Wow Wow Wow Wow
Treasonous! Finally showing his loyalty!
My my
We tried to hold Trump back, but he was dumber
Oh yeah
And now it seems his only chance is giving up to them
And how could Trump ever refuse
He feels like he wins when we lose!
Helsinki! Trump was defeated, they won the war
Treasonous! Promise to love Putin ever more
Meddling! Couldn't admit if he wanted to
Evidence! Knowing the facts he still lies to you
Wow Wow Wow Wow
Treasonous! Finally showing his loyalty!
(the choir split up and wander off stage)
(The Finnish and Russian flags are removed but US flag remains. One podium is removed)
(Trump walks up to the podium. A group of journalists are gathered to the side. Trump is asked questions)
Journalist 1 - Mr Trump, do you believe American intelligence sources and your own state department, or do you believe the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin
Trump - Well, Mr Putin spoke very strongly and I believe him
Journalist 2 - What did you discuss with Mr Putin in the private conversation you had for over 2 hours
Trump - We discussed tremendous things, we will be doing bigly things soon. That is all, sorry, I have to go. I have to sing a song.
(Trump walks to the front of the stage and sings)
(guitar riff to song starts)
WOULD I LIE TO YOU
(The Eurythmix)(link to song)
Would I lie to you?
Would I lie to you voters?
Now would I say something that wasn't true?
I'm asking you voter,
Would I lie so much to you?
Putin! Knows what's in store.
NA-TO won’t be nomore.
I've told my lies.
I've walked them back.
Now watch me talkin'.
Walking back some more
Believe me - I'll fake it fake it
Believe me - I'll fake it fake it
Would I lie to you?
Would I lie to you voters?
Now would I claim something was ‘just fake news’?
I'm asking you voter
Would I lie lie lie to you?
Helsinki? I’m in submission.
Hostage! But no collusion!
I’m the biggest fake.
That much is true.
I’ll blame someone else.
I am deceiving you-u-u-u
Believe me - I'll brake it brake it
Believe me - Putin will take it
(Trump and Donald Trump walk across the stage, talking)
Trump Junior - Daddy, did you hear that South Park has stopped writing material about your presidency?
Trump - That’s great Junior, but you know I never liked South Park – they make fun of me and my friends, just like the fake news channel, CNN
Trump Junior - Well, actually, they stopped writing material because you provide it all for them by just being you (guffaws)
Trump - It’s such an awful show that nobody watches it anyway. And that little fat one – whatever his name is, he’s so rude, so rude
Trump Junior - You mean Cartman?
(a small overy-fat boy (wearing a pillow) dressed in bright red shirt and blue jeans, looks about 10 years old or younger, walks into the front of the stage. He is Cartman)
(Cartman sings initially alone, then the cast joins him as the song progresses)
KYLE’S MOM IS A BITCH
(Cartman of TV series South Park)(link to video)
Trump’s a bitch, he is Putin’s bitch!
He's the biggest bitch in the whole wide world!
He’s a stupid bitch, if there ever was a bitch;
He's a bitch to all the boys and girls!
In Finland he’s a bitch!
In London he’s a bitch!
From Singapore to Washington he’s Putin’s bitch.
Then in Moscow with the pee tape girls,
Trump was and still is Putin’s bitch!
Trump’s a bitch, he is Putin’s bitch!
He's the biggest bitch in the whole wide world!
He’s a stupid bitch, if there ever was a bitch,
He's a bitch for Vlad to toss and twirl!
On Monday he's a bitch!
On Tuesday he's a bitch!
On Wednesday to Saturday, he's Putin’s bitch!
Then on Sunday, just to be different:
Trump's a super King-size Putin bitch!
(Cartman marches off the stage with head held high, the other singers look puzzled and start to wander off the stage)
(four men march in from Stage Left, two in uniform, they set themselves into a quarter to the side of the stage and wait)
(Trump walks in from Stage Right, sets himself in front of the quartet, nods at them, then turns to face the audience)
(Song in three voices. Trump sings his 2 lines solo, the featured singer sings his own part solo, and the choir sings the two lines together)
Trump - I never wanted to be billionaire, anyway. I wanted to sing, to sing
I’M A LUMBERJACK (AND I’M OK)
(Monty Python’s Flying Circus)(link to video)
I’m an idiot and I’m ok
I tweet all night, I tweet all day
(He’s the President its not ok)
(He tweets all night, he tweets all day)
Iraq War vet, US Marine
The White House Chief of Staff
That General John F Kelly
Called Trump unhinged; we laugh
I’m an idiot and I’m ok
I tweet all night, I tweet all day
(He’s the President its not ok)
(He tweets all night, he tweets all day)
Rex Tillerson, an Eagle Scout
Ran Exxon ten years on
As Secre-tary of State
Called Trump fucking moron
I’m an idiot and I’m ok
I tweet all night, I tweet all day
(He’s the President its not ok)
(He tweets all night, he tweets all day)
Gulf War vet, Iraq War vet
The General could not cope
That NatSec-Man McMaster
Confess’d that Trump’s a dope
I’m an idiot and I’m ok
I tweet all night, I tweet all day
(He’s the President its not ok)
(He tweets all night, he tweets all day)
At Goldman Sachs, he was big boss,
Then did the economy bit
But Gary Cohn, Advisor
Said Trump was dumb as shit
I’m an idiot and I’m ok
I tweet all night, I tweet all day
(He’s the President its not ok)
(He tweets all night, he tweets all day)
Rex Tillerson (to Trump) - Why can't you be like Obama?
(the quartet turn and march off stage)
(Trump is left alone)
(lights go dark, Trump gets spotlight, he sings)
(piano intro to the James Bond classic movie theme starts to play)
NOBODY DOES IT BETTER
(Carly Simon)(link to song)
Obama did it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as him
Barack, you're the best
I did try looking, for your birth documents
I tried to claim you’re from Kenya
But like my wife Melania
Everybody loves 'ya
It rips by guts out each and every night
As, Obama you are better
And always you know no-one could
Nobody does this quite the way you do
Why'd you have to be so good?
The way that you answer
Whenever they ask you
There’s some kind of magic inside you
Your mind keeps on thinking
The reasoning coming
How’d you learn to speak so well you do?
And nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for all of us
Nobody does it half as good as you
Oh, Obama, you're the best
(Trump hunches his shoulders, dejected, and wanders off stage)
(a large bunch of people flow onto the stage, they set up into chorus formation, they all are looking at their smartphone screens while watching and exclaiming 'Mueller', 'Mueller' some to themselves, some to the screen, and some to each other)
(then they stop, and sing)
DARE ME
(Pointer Sisters)(link to song)
You've got a chip on your shoulder
With one name on it (Mueller’s there!)
So don't just stand there tweetin'
If you don't want it (Mueller’s there!)
I say you're either a loser
Or you are a liar
So don't spank her too hard
You're playin' with fire
Trumpy, make your move
Step across the line
Tweet him one more time
Come on, dare him
He wants to take you on
He knows he can't lose
We'll be hating you
If you just dare him
Looks like you're lookin' for Mueller
And I'd say you found him (You found him)
You'll have to go right through him
There's no way around it (You found him)
I hope that mean shithole look
Means what it's saying
'Cause we're just sittin' on ready
Ready and waiting
Come on and dare him
If there's any truth
Behind your collusions
Mueller’s gonna end up on fire
You better believe it
You better believe it, oh baby
Oh, dare him, dare him,
Dare him
(cast moves away from front of stage, reveals a Sarah Sanders standing at the back of the stage, she is taking questions from a few reporters)
Reporter 1 - Did President Trump sleep with Stormy Daniels?
Sarah - That question was answered, next reporter?
Reporter 1 - No, you haven't answered it
Sarah - Yes, now moving along
Reporter 1 - No, you never answered it.
Sarah - I just did, now you?
Reporter 2 - Did President Trump sleep with Stormy Daniels?
(The reporters turn towards the audience and start to sing)
BETTE DAVIS EYES
(Kim Carnes)(link to song)
Her face is looking old
It comes from telling lies.
Her stare is dead and cold,
She’s got Sarah Sanders Eyes.
She’ll turn the public on you,
Shouting “fake news” lies.
She hates the Free Press, you know.
She’s got Sarah Sanders Eyes.
And she'll hate you, and berate you
All the better just to grate you
She's obnoxious, and she knows just
What it takes to make a bigot gush!
She’s got John Candy’s stand out thighs,
She's got Sarah Sanders Eyes.
She won’t answer when you ask,
It whets her appetite.
But she’ll take you to task,
She got Sarah Sanders Eyes!
She’s got the smoky eye down
It’s made of crushed up lies.
One goes up, and one goes down
She's got Sarah Sanders Eyes.
She'll expose you, when she snows you
Mixing lies with the crumbs, she throws you.
She's ferocious and she knows just what it
Takes to make a presser rush.
All she wants is some french fries,
She's got Sarah Sanders eyes.
(Curtain opens)
(A girl is playing with train set)
(She has short blonde hair, she is skinny, looks about 12 years of age)
(Off-screen we hear her mom yelling)
Mom (off stage) - It’s time dear!
Girl - Yes mom, just one more minute
Mom (off stage) - No, you come here now!
Girl - Just one more junction.
Mom (off stage) - No more junctions or debunctions!
Girl - Mom, just one more minute?
Mom (off stage) - Rachel Maddow! You get down here right now! You have to do your TV show, all of America is waiting!
Girl - Yes mom, I’m coming, tell the TV crew I’ll be right there
(Girl gets up, takes a train and some tracks with her, walks off the stage)
(Whole cast walks in and starts to sing):
KILLER QUEEN
(Queen)(link to song)
She keeps Moët and Vodka
In her pretty cabinet
‘Show them the tape,' she says
Just like ole’ Tim Russert
A built-in remedy
For Limbaugh and Hannity
At anytime an invitation
You can't decline
Analysis and evidence
Well versed in etiquette
Extraordinarily nice!
She's a Killer Queen
Maddow is on the scene
Debunction with a laser beam
Guaranteed to blow your mind
Anytime
Recommended at the price
Insatiable an appetite
Wanna try?
To add to complications
Trump changes lies within this mess
In conversation
Cohen taped him with no finess
Met a man from Russia
Went down to Helsinki and, oh
Then again incidentally
Putin confessed who he preferred..
Transcripts came naturally from typists
Naturally
For words we couldn't translate
Yet accurate and precise
She's a Killer Queen
Maddow is on the scene
Debunction with a laser beam
Guaranteed to blow your mind
Anytime
Drop of a line, she's right onto that
Tears it like an alley cat
Words momentarily building fiction
Temporarily tries the lies
To absolutely drive us wild, wild
She's all out to get you
She's a Killer Queen
Maddow is on the scene
Debunction with a laser beam
Guaranteed to blow your mind
Anytime
Recommended at the price
Insatiable an appetite
Wanna try?
You wanna try
(the phones of the cast start to beep, all take out their smartphones and start cheering, with words like 'prison' and 'impeached')
(whole cast joins front of stage to sing final song)
JAILHOUSE ROCK
(Elvis)(link to song)
When Mueller threw a party at the fed’ral jail
The Trumpo gang was there and they began to wail.
Manafort was grumpy and the joint began to swing.
You should’ve heard those treasonous stooges sing
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
Daddy Trumpy ‘played’ the tenor saxophone,
Little Don was ‘blowin' on a slide trombone.
The drummer boy called Hannity went crash, boom, bang,
Mitch McConnel section was the Turtle Gang
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
Number forty-five said to Pence VP:
You're the gayest jailbird I ever did see.
God sure would be delighted if you slept with me
Come on and do the ‘small-hands jive’ with me
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
Sarah Sanders was a sittin' on Roger Stone
Both over in the corner weepin' all alone.
Mike Cohen said, "Hey, lovers, don't you be no square.
I’ve tape recorded you with my mic right there”
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
Kevin Nunes said to Rand, "For Putin's sake,
No one's lookin', now's our chance to make a break."
Paul Ryan pointed out as he told Hope Hicks,
We wanna stick around as Trump’s ass gets kicks
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
Let's rot, everybody, let's rot.
Everybody who’s a shameful blot
Was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rot.
ENDING COMMENTS
First off, please tell us which song or songs you liked the most. Please mention here in the comments, or on Twitter, and we'll see which songs and jokes connected the best with our readership.
This manuscript of a parody musical was written by Tomi T Ahonen and my friend Maritsa Adams. The parody lyrics to two songs were by my Twitter pal NaKina who is @Nakinatalbert. Her lyrics were the parodies based on Bohemian Rhapsody (Queen) and Bette Davis Eyes (Kim Carnes). All other song parodies were by me, Tomi T Ahonen aka The Seventh Steve aka HatRat aka T Dawg. Most of the lyrics had been released through Twitter prior to this blog but some edits have been made to some lyrics.
This blog is released under creative commons and we would love for this play to be performed somewhere in some form. We do not own any of the rights to the music so please respect those rights and proceed with the original songs as appropriate. The humor and jokes and the play manuscript parts here, they are free to use, but we ask that we be recognized for our contributions if works are performed based on this manuscript..
So this blog is about the Helsinki Hostage Summit where Trump was exposed as being Putin’s Puppet, on global TV and to the horror of Americans and the world. I have a working theory of how we got here, and the key is: the Republicans thought they’d get away with it, because everybody knew, that Trump could not possibly win against Hillary Clinton.
So this is my first political blog since the election (welcome back political readers, and no, there is NOTHING in this blog about my other topics, tech, media and mobile). Lets start first with the jokes. If you just visited this blog to get ‘those jokes’, they are here in the top and the lyrics to the songs are far on the bottom. So first the jokes.
After the Helsinki Hostage Summit, we now know not only that Trump should spell his name with two letter P’s as he is the TrumPP; he is Putin’s Puppet.
The Republican party is often called the GOP for the Grand Old Party. That no longer is true, the GOP now is Government Of Putin.
The National Rifle Association ie the NRA is now the National Russia Association (or if you want to be pedantic, it should be called the National Russification Association).
I had been calling Trump the Moron-In-Chief. He is many things like the Liar-In-Chief and the Racist-In-Chief. But now we have the worst conceivable title for what should be the USA’s Commander-In-Chief. Trump was revealed to actually be the Traitor-In-Chief.
And his flock? Those in the Republican party who support Trump? That is a cult. That cult was built meticulously over the years, over decades, cultivated and refined in its purity and hatred, by Fox News. We have a name for them. They are the Cult45. As in Trump President number 45 and a play on the Colt revolver pistol and a ‘malt liquor’ (lager beer) of a similar name. So here our new mocking terms
Helsinki Hostage Summit
Putin’s Puppet
GOP = Government Of Putin
NRA = National Russia Association
Moron-In-Chief is now Traitor-In-Chief
Trump supporters = Cult45
And from our 'best hits' collection, if you're here just for the jokes, lets do the old classic 'The Three Iron Laws of Trump'
First Laws Of Trump = Never Believe Anything Trump Says
Second Law Of Trump = Anything Trump Denies Is The Truth
Third Law Of Trump = For Every Trump Opinion There Must Exist An Equal And Opposite Trump Opinion
There you go. Feel free to use those and mock the Trumpsters with them. Now if you’re here only for the jokes, not the analysis, jump to the bottom of this long blog. I will have the song parodies there (Sinatra, The Beatles, Amy Winehouse, Abba, Eurythmix and more). Meanwhile if you want my analysis of HOW the White House was sold to Vladimir Putin of Russia, lets get to my working theory. Follow me beyond the fold here:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(welcome back)
So. I am now convinced that Trump will be convicted of treason. Yes, you read that right. I am not saying impeachment. I am saying treason. He MAY get a plea deal of something less, but the evidence will be overwhelming that Trump sold his candidacy to Putin for millions of dollars and has been acting as an agent of a foreign power while in office, from the day he took office. It is not only one or two instances of questionable behavior. It is systematic actions in favor of Russia and Vladimir Putin. And the bribes were not modest numbers in the thousands. Trump took millions. The crimes are so enormous, Trump will die in prison. I expect he’ll get something like 1,000 year sentence eligible for parole in 600 years.
Before you laugh. This blog predicted that Trump will win his GOP nomination before the first vote was cast in Iowa (that is not remarkable, Trump was ahead in polling) but this blog NAILED the DATE that Trump would clinch - and that while everybody thought Jeb Bush was the other strong player, this blog correctly predicted the FINISH of the GOP race that Ted Cruz would come second, and Marco Rubio third. Yes. I said all that on this blog, in JANUARY of 2016, before even one vote had been cast. NOBODY ELSE gave a prediction of the date when Trump will clinch when I made my prediction. I was literally the first on the planet to call when Trump would clinch (but then, obviously, like EVERYBODY else, I predicted that Hillary would win in November).
Trump dies in prison for Treason. And yes, I have to write my working theory now, as most are still struggling to UNDERSTAND what happened at the Helsinki Hostage Summit. Note this article runs about 10,000 words, should take you about 20 minutes to read and you should get a cup of coffee before you start..
TREASON?
Yes Treason. Acting against your own country’s interests and in favor of another country. It is even worse in the case of Trump because he did so while in an official government position. Treason is the only crime left, on the federal level in the USA, for which they have the death penalty. Usually the LAST crime in any country, when death penalty is outlawed, the last crime they kept, was treason. Serving to help another nation against your own.
There is a great example of an American convicted of treason in WW2. An American lady, 'Axis Sallie' ie Mildred Gillars in Germany recorded propaganda stories in English, to scare American soldiers, to tell how they would die if they attacked Nazi Germany from England (in what became the Normandy Invasions, Saving Private Ryan, etc, that movie). The purpose of the recordings was to erode the fighting morale of US soldiers. They tried to make American soldiers lose their confidence and for example refuse to fight, or to become a deserter. That is ‘aiding and abetting’ an enemy. She was convicted.
But take another woman. Jane Fonda traveled to North Vietnam, posed with their soldiers and spoke out against the Vietnam War while Americans were fighting on South Vietnam’s side. She earned a nickname as being 'Hanoi Jane' and some in Congress demanded she’s be accused of treason - but it was not seen as treason because there was clear debate already then about the validity of the war, so it fell onto the side of free speech. She was arguing that the war was unjust and the US Government was lying to Americans (as it turned out, they in fact were, so Jane Fonda was also correct).
THE PUTIN PUPPET
At this point we have not seen the indictments, we have not heard the full evidence, but there are enough tidbits to see that Trump is fully owned by Putin. There is enough gossip and circumstantial evidence, to see that yes, Trump took millions, at least dozens of millions, possibly as much as 100 million from Putin - to Trump’s 2016 Presidential campaign. He did this knowingly, it was arranged by Paul Manafort (who currently sits in jail awaiting his two court cases where he will be convicted for life behind bars just for earlier crimes, even before we get to the treason with Trump).
To be clear, first off, it is totally illegal to take money from foreign entities in a US election. Trump took money from anyone, not just Putin. Trump took money from several Arab countries (UAE and Saudi Arabia at least) and many other places. But most of all, he took from Putin. And he collected bucks by the bucketload. These would be election finance crimes, and even at enormous levels, they are not necessarily going to get you for life behind bars.
However, if Trump then did ANYTHING as a ‘quid pro quo’ to help the nation that paid him - that is treason right there. That is selling your country to another. It is life imprisonment and could be even the death penalty. And then WHERE do we begin? Trump started even before he was President, by removing language from the GOP Party Platform that defended Ukraine against Russia. I want to point out that Russia is currently in a shooting war with Ukraine, and Ukraine is an ally to the USA for example fighting with American troops in Afghanistan. This is outrageous. But Trump takes Russia's side on everything. He talked of easing sanctions against Russia set up by Obama and NATO and the EU. When Russia continued its mischief around the world, and Congress passed new sanctions, Trump delayed punishing Russia. He helped Russia stay in Syria to keep the Tartus naval base (that Russia was already abandoning as the murderous dictator Assad was about to fall; Trump also let Assad survive - but Trump loves dictators, lets not get side-tracked here). And on and on. Trump’s whole Presidency has been a love-affair of Putin, praising him at every stage, and Trump has advanced PUTIN’s agenda on the G7, on NATO, on WTO on the EU, etc. Every time, Trump takes Russia’s propaganda position and against the closest allies that the USA has, like Britain, Canada, Germany, Japan and France.
HELSINKI HOSTAGE SUMMIT
Up to the Helsinki Hostage Summit, one could have argued that it is all conjecture and coincidence and a conspiracy theory. Until we saw the ‘Leader of the Free World’ act as if he was the hostage to a smugly-grinning Putin. When Trump arrived to their joint press conference he looked like he had just spent the previous two hours personally licking the ass of Putin. And Putin arrived to the meeting smiling as broadly as someone whose anus had been carefully licked for two hours straight. Look at the tape and look at their demeanor. It was the Sex Master and his Slave. It was disgusting.
And then we heard it. Trump, the US President, was aping Russian propaganda points, on his largest TV audience on the global stage. WTF? Trump? Yeah, we want to set up a joint cyber-security force? WHAT THE FUCK TRUMP? Russia just ATTACKED YOU. And now you think its a great idea to let the criminal come and look at YOUR SIDE of the investigation? When Putin suggested that he’d like to interrogate Americans - Trump said he felt that was a great idea. When Trump was asked, who is at fault for the bad relationship with Russia - which was solely caused by Putin, who annexed Crimea in 2014 - Trump said that BOTH SIDES ARE AT FAULT. And when Trump was asked, who do you trust, the American Justice Department and the consensus of American intelligence agencies, or rather the word of an ex-KGB Colonel, Putin the leader of Russia, Trump said that he felt Putin was speaking very strongly, so he TRUSTED PUTIN. Even after changing his tune "oh, I mis-spoke, I meant to say wouldn't when I said would" that removes none of the language of Trump saying that he trusted Putin because Putin 'speaks so strongly'?
That was a puppet show. The Helsinki Hostage Summit. And Trump went onto Fox to give similar comments. All these were in line with his previous attacks that week on German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May. And then, after Trump’s political team witnessed the overnight polling catastrophe, that 20% of Republicans felt Trump failed in Helsinki, and half of Republicans believe the intelligence officers rather than Putin and Trump - Trump was forced into one of his very rare retractions (it was not even a non-apology). Trump spent half a day with his national security team trying to fix the damage. They decided he’d claim he mis-spoke and said “would” when he meant “wouldn’t”. And if you desperately need to believe, that Trump is a patriot and not owned by Putin - that will do. They will believe anything Liar-In-Chief says. But anyone who saw the event, or who listens to the tape - will see, that changing that one word - does NOT change the meaning, of the context of what came before and after. Trump CLEARLY meant it, in Helsinki, that he took Putin’s ‘strong’ words rather than his own Intelligence agencies AND his own Justice Department - which is run by a man APPOINTED by Trump (And a Republican).
Fine, so if you want to believe that it was an honest mistake, and Trump mis-spoke, you probably better quit reading here, and don’t read further. But if you want to know what Tomi thinks happens next and HOW the White House was sold, read further.
KOMPROMAT AND THE PEE TAPE
Trump’s behavior is NOT CONSISTENT with an American President. Trump’s behavior IS consistent with someone who is controlled by Putin. That is it. Did you notice, now in this total clusterfuck, Trump decided to invite Putin to come visit the White House. PUTIN. Who attacked the US elections less than 2 years ago. Putin who annexed Crimea four years ago. Putin whose soldiers massacred 270 civilians in the MH 270 airliner over Ukraine. Putin who poisoned people in Britain (another two possibly now, looking ever more like it was also Putin). JUST LAST WEEK the US Justice Department (yes, run by Trump’s own man) identified that the Russian ARMY intelligence performed cyber attacks against the USA. This week, another Russian spy was outed who was corrupting the NRA (National Rifle Association, a close ally of the Republican party). And the US experts say the Russians are continuing currently their attacks on the USA. Trump is so oblivious to the doom awaiting him only weeks or months from now, he is proceeding towards the cliff and just hitting the gas pedal on his car.
We know Putin has something.
They call it ‘kompromat’ in the spy trade. When the KGB got something, usually some compromising sex tapes, of government officials or military officers or sometimes major industry business leaders or also journalists, to use as leverage to blackmail them. It was standard operating procedure - on BOTH sides - in the Cold War. So yes, the CIA did this just as much as the KGB. And remember, Putin was so competent in the KGB, he rose to the rank of Colonel and ran the the Dresden bureau of East Germany's KGB office so also oversaw the hated brutal East German Stasi (think of the Gestapo, but a really truly brutally cruel version of the Gestapo).
We KNOW there is a Pee Tape. Why else would Trump bring this up TWICE to the then-FBI director James Comey? It has been in the gossip for a long while. And when Putin was asked about it - he very cleverly avoided answering the question but left the impression he did. He let the audience think that no, nobody would actually try to collect Kompromat on 500 people. Haha, in Putin’s Russia? Of COURSE they did, on all those 500. But Trump was WAY more valuable to Putin in 2013, than ANY of those 500 Americans who attended the St Petersburg Economic Summit this year. Hardly any of them were even in the ‘Billionaire class’ of people haha. Just ‘normal’ American business leaders.
Because Trump himself is paranoid of the Pee Tape, we know that exists. But that may have been useful once, it became utterly worthless, by the time Trump was found of bragging about pussygrabbing, and not suffer political damage. No, while the Pee Tape DOES exist, and once was the strongest of the kompromat that Putin held over Trump, that has been FAR superceded by what Putin now holds.
THE NON-BILLIONAIRE
Trump had two imaginary publicists, John Miller and John Barron. Trump assumed one of those two personalities and telephoned up journalists to pitch stories about Trump. Yes, he is that sick in his mind, he has invented two alter egos to try to build a reputation that he doesn’t have. These two tell us about Trump’s priorities and explain the kompromat. John Miller told of Trump’s sex life. He invented stories of how many famous women supposedly Trump had slept with - and if a journalist wrote that story - the woman would complain bitterly that they hate Trump. But Trump - who is emotionally incompatible with a relationship - could not get any regular dates, he had to buy his women (apparently about 100 of those Stormy Daniels types of paid sex relationships including the famous Playmate etc). Trump’s three marriages were also all paid for, the women never loved Trump for a moment but were happy to do the sham marriage for money. And obviously Trump was serially unfaithful throughout all three marriages. But this blog is NOT about his sex scandals. Who cares. This is about TREASON.
So John Miller BRAGGED about Trump’s sex life. John Barron did the money bit. Trump was never a billionaire. The Forbes analyst who put Trump onto their list has later admitted that they were tricked. And Trump has built an ILLUSION of wealth, by borrowing from one sucker and then borrowing from the next, to pay the first. ALL AMERICAN BANKS have put Trump on a black list. They will never lend him a wooden nickle. And then he went to Britain - same thing. Today they won’t lend him any more money. Then next, European banks. No more. Now even the last of them, Deutsche Bank said - no more. And then he went to Middle Eastern banks and then China and Russia - Putin. But get this, John Barron was regularly calling up the business papers to plant stories about how rich Trump was, and what clever deal he was working on, to get more investors onboard, and to get convenient publicity - while Trump was pitching his latest scam to some new banker or investor. They all got burned of course.
But note. John Miller invented sex stories that were lurid, and Trump was proud about, even where women said they were not true. And with John Barron, Trump tried to inflate his net worth. John Barron would always call and complain if someone wrote a story where Trump value was less than someone else had said, etc. A kind of pyramid scheme of financial wealth.
If someone accuses Trump of being a sexual pervert, he will like that. It is not a good thing for a President, but his voters will forgive him, if they forgave his pussygrabbing. But his wealth? THAT he takes as his most important attribute. The carefully crafted illusion, that he supposedly is worth many Billions. He is not. He is bankrupt. He owes something like half a BILLION dollars to Putin alone (from long before the election) and his kids owe another about 250 million dollars to Putin. All handled via Putin’s Alfa Bank that has convenient offices in Trump Tower. Yeah. Convenient.
Trump is so paranoid about the illusion of his wealth, that when journalists were researching stories that Trump is not worth what he claims - those journalists received immediate threats of lawsuits. Most journalists ended up not writing those stories.
WILY FOX
This is the kompromat. Putin can tell the world how for the past 5 maybe as much as 10 years, Putin has kept Trump from bankruptcy. That he is NOT worth 5 Billion dollars, he is not worth 1 Billion dollars, that Trump is not worth 1 Million dollars; that Trump is 500 million dollars in debt, but Putin has politely bankrolled this clown, because he was useful to Putin, and Putin is so ridiculously rich, he can afford this toy. Besides, the Putin money - all from his oligarchs (Billionaire-slaves, imagine how sickeningly rich you have to be, to have a dozen BILLIONAIRES as you slaves to do the ugly bit like touching money) - has at least some collateral in various Trump real estate properties.
And judging by Putin’s investment, he got the White House on a true bargain. Well played, Putin! Bravo. Well played. The chess grand master. A true Jedi move. Bravo!
Putin has all the records, and did you see the Helsinki Hostage Summit press conference? Putin actually ADMITTED that yes, he ordered his army to attack the US election. And that yes, he wanted Trump to win. Trump has tried continuously since 2016 to say, no Putin did not help him, and more importantly, that Putin would have preferred Hillary Clinton to be President, so of course Putin would never have helped Trump. That somehow apparently Trump wants Americans to think that Hillary would have been an ‘easier’ opponent to Putin than Trump. Well, yeah. Those of us who live in the real world, will remember Hillary MET Putin, when she was Secretary of State for President Obama. And that Putin truly hated the strong woman in Hillary. He certainly wanted his own puppet and would not want Hillary in the White House. But yea, that was only speculation up to Monday. But now in the Helsinki Hostage Summit, we hear from the horse’s mouth. Putin said openly yes, he ordered the attack on the US elections and why? Because Putin said he wanted Trump to win the election...... CASE CLOSED.
If this was the case - and Trump WAS told of Russian meddling in the election already in 2016 right after he had won - any PATRIOTIC American President would have ordered a total investigation (what became the Mueller investigation AGAINST Trump’s wishes) and would have IMMEDIATELY held a press conference and IMMEDIATELY issued new sanctions to Russsia. And the patriotic President would have ordered a massive overhaul of all elections systems to prevent any meddling in the future. Instead, Trump has spent the past 2 years continously denying what he KNEW, and then once the Mueller investigation started, Trump has acted to undermine that, systematically. That is not the behavior of someone innocent. That is the behavior of someone VERY guilty. Someone very afraid of the outcome. We KNOW now how this will end. The signs, now at and after the Helsinki Hostage Summit, give us enough of the proof. We know Trump is compromised. And then it becomes valuable to ponder the How. How could this happen - and who else. Yes, gosh, who ELSE is involved
THE NATIONAL RUSSIA ASSOCIATION
I had often speculated about a possible NRA connection. There was a drip-drip of gossip and occasional odd news items but this week we heard of the Russian spy caught in the USA, who was organizing the NRA connection for the Putin money to come to Trump, and to the Republican party. Suddenly a REALLY big piece of the puzzle fits in place, and now, I have enough, that I can try to solve the puzzle, finally. Hence this blog. What truly happened. How did Putin purchase the White House?
The NRA. America’s gun owners’ club. A fiercely patriotic, very red-blooded, REPUBLICAN club. It is not a gun-owner club while people often think it is. It is actually the firearms manufacturers’ industry association. Yes, the gun manufactures like Colt and Remington and Winchester and Smith & Wesson etc (whatever their current owners are) are the NRA. BUT they offer memberships ALSO to gun owners, and various benefits like discounts to gun shows, shooting galleries, and all other sorts of things. And there are membership cards to their members. Of the many gun clubs in America, the NRA is the largest and by far the most famous. But while most think, it is a gun owner club, it is a gun MANUFACTURER club, where gun owners get to be associate (junior) members only. Famous Americans have been (figurehead) leaders at the NRA like actor Charlton Heston once.
There is almost no political organization that on its surface would seem like more ‘red-blooded’ Patriotic and ‘militaristic’ pro-USA and almost by definition anti-Russia, than the NRA. But somehow, in the past few years, the NRA has formed an unholy alliance with Putin - and yes, now the evidence is JUST starting to emerge, that the NRA corrupted the GOP for the 2016 election cycle. Note, that when this spy woman was asked to be interviewed for a bipartisan Congressional hearing about Russian interference in the 2016 election - the REPUBLICANS refused to let her be called to testify. The GOP knew that she would tell of the NRA connection which GOP wanted to keep a secret.
The reason the NRA needed to be brought in, is campaign finance law. The NRA can give money openly to candidates it likes. And the NRA can collect money in larger amounts and had apparently whether legally or perhaps illegally, been able to take money from Russia. In effect the NRA did money-laundering. Illegal for foreigners to give money to American politicians. Not illegal for the NRA to have foreign members (it is an association of MANUFACTURERS not citizens) and then for the NRA, an American club to give money to any American politician they want. A very convenient money-laundering tool, in fact.
It is VERY likely that ALL money from Putin, was laundered via the NRA, whether it went to Trump’s 2016 campaign or to any members of Congress. A direct connection from Putin to Trump would seem (to me) to be too vulnerable and possibly caught with Alfa Bank in Trump Tower, etc.
If the NRA was involved in this money laundering scheme, their leaders will rot in prison - YIP-PEE we get rid of that onerous Lapierre, finally! And the obstruction of the NRA to sensible gun control will also disappear. An honest gun OWNERS club will emerge after the NRA is outlawed as an anti-American association that was found guilty of treason.
CULT 45
So now about them Trumpsters. The ‘Deplorables’. Where did THEY come from and how can they be so incredibly dumb? They are not dumb. Ok to be fair, some are. But there are lots of totally sane people in the Cult45. Where did they come from? They were manufactured over 2 decades, by Fox News. They are a cult, like those of Reverend Moon, or the Scientologists etc. They are fanatical. And they have no idea they are in a cult (nobody inside any cult ever knows it, and will vehemently deny belonging in a cult). And they have been brainwashed. Systematically, the methods that Hitler’s propaganda minister Goebbels developed. Repeat a simple lie often enough and it will be believed. This cult existed but was without a leader, and without a political candidate. They yearned.
An easy test has been around for nearly ten years. Was Obama born in Kenya? All sane (non-brainwashed) people know that he was born in the USA. If an American responds that Obama was NOT born in the USA, that person is a Trump Cult45 member. Almost perfect correlation. It is not the full membership, because there are plenty MORE Trump supporters who don’t believe that lie, and there are more who VOTED for Trump who are not (or may not even have been) Trump supporters, such as some who just hated Hillary more; but the brainwashed core Trump supporter base? The believe Obama is a Kenyan. And that correlates very closely with one metric: TV channel. If you watch Fox News and don’t watch other news channels, odds are you believe Obama is a Kenyan (and you will be a loyal ‘base’ Trump supporter) if you watch multiple news channels regularly (not just rarely) (I don’t mean other right-wing, I mean CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC) then almost certainly you won’t believe that Obama was a Kenyan, and you are far less likely to be a core Trump supporter.
Fox has brainwashed its viewership to believe all idiotic conspiracy theories, they fear the ‘deep state’. They don’t trust the American institutions like the FBI and US justice system, etc etc etc. And Trump has added a VERY powerful addition to the mix, actually first pitched by Sarah Palin - that the ‘mainstream media’ is against Republicans. That the ‘mainstream media’ lies all the time ie they offer ‘fake news’. Most Americans KNOW that most journalists do a good job, and that they are human, and honest news organizations will issue corrections when they make mistakes. Fox News is the ONLY News Network whose policy is NOT TO CORRECT mistakes. BTW they also are every year the least accurate network too (most mistakes). So this fear of ‘fake news’ will insulate Trump at his own base, from anything covered in the other media, and meanwhile Fox feeds its viewers an alternate reality. They ARE brainwashed.
But Trump did not find them, the cult found Trump. Trump just started off as a loudmouth racist (at his roots, he is a racists, his dad was in the KKK and Trump is very close to Nazi ideology; his favorite book is the Speeches of Hitler). The Cult was looking for their ‘messiah’. And many in the cult - who believed Obama was not a Christian, and was from Kenya - had racist attitudes. Trump’s speech that all Mexicans are rapists and murderers, connected with that lunatic racist edge of the Republican party (who were Democrats till the 1960s, but then the Democrats kicked the racist wing out of their party).
The idiotic whack-job conspiracy theory nutters of Fox News audience wanted someone to speak to THEIR needs. And Trump didn’t know the language or what they wanted. As Trump himself had no political views other than Trump wanted to become rich through politics, anything was ok by him. So the year of 2015 Trump spent on the trail, speaking at rallies, and throwing thoughts out to the crowd, to see what they liked. The stuff they liked, became Trump’s position. Even if he had only the same day said the opposite. Because Trump is a systematic pathological liar, it was no problem for him to make ridiculous about-faces on any and all of his positions. On ALMOST every political position that Trump now holds, he has held the opposite position at least once within the last three years. Often Trump has jumped back and forth on opposite views, as far as I know the fastest triple flip-flop was within one interview (a world record) and four opposite positions inside a 24 hour span. Trump is the most deceitful - or most inconsistent - politician in history. And as the Cult45 only cared to HEAR what they wanted, when Trump said the right thing, they registered it (And cheered loudly) and if Trump said the opposite, they instantly forgot it and forgave. Trump soon learned what were the magic phrases that got the big audience reactions, so he soon developed the right vocabulary to sound like the priest of this cult that had found him.
The key point to understand is, that Trump never built this base. The base was there. But nobody had spoken to this base like this before. So they HONESTLY believe Trump and will remain with him until the very end. It is sad because they ARE brainwashed. Some will recover after Trump is gone, others never will. And this Cult45 was built by Fox News. Through propaganda. You CANNOT reason with a cultist. It is impossible. They will not ever believe you. They cannot see truth anymore. They will trust Trump’s lies over their own eyes or ears.
GOVERNMENT OF PUTIN
And before we get to Trump, how about the GOP? It seems, all the symptoms of behavior, and a lot of logic, suggest that gosh, in 2016, not only Trump - but the Republican PARTY itself, took millions from Putin. Yes. This is not just corruption of the President. Congress is owned by Putin as well. THAT EXPLAINS A LOT.
Tomi this is a plot from a bad movie. No it isn’t. Putin has bought MANY governments in the past. And his ultimate gamble was Trump 2016. But this kind of puppet? Look at Kasakhstan and look at Belarus. Yes, I know, you can’t even find them on a map. They’re both countries about the size of Texas. Putin has bribed them and turned those independent and nominally democratic countries into his puppet states. They have no border controls anymore, they use the Ruble as their currency and a military alliance too. Putin had this same scam going with Yanukovich in the Ukraine - Yanukovich a kleptocrat Trump would be proud to call his own son - and the EXACT same playbook as Trump. Including... Manafort !!! Luckily for the Ukrainians, they found out and had their revolution, Yanukovich escaped and Poroshenko became their new President.
So the Grand Old Party. How CAN it be involved. Look at the evidence. The HOUSE Republicans are nutty and prevented sane investigations into Russia’s meddling, and have been calling for Mueller to be fired. The SENATE Republicans are mostly acting semi-sane, and the bipartisan Senate hearing found that yes, Russia DID meddle in 2016. Why is this? The House gets elected in every 2 years. All House members had an election in 2016. Imagine IF there had been a massive infusion of Putin’s millions, that were ‘cleanly’ laundered via the NRA - in that case, ALL of the GOP House members who ran in 2016, would have taken that money (well, lets say most, not all). And it explains the lunatic behavior towards the Russia investigation in the House.
But the Senate? They serve six years. So only about 1/3 of the Senate was re-elected in 2016. A few of their Senators are acting truly massively badly and singing Putin’s tune - case in point, Rand Paul. Wow is he up to his neck in Putin money. But others (Marco Rubio also had his Senatorial election in 2016). But Rubio probably did not want to get involved with Trump collaborations and may well be clear of the Putin money. And as there only are 100 Senators, if 33 had re-elections in 2016, the total Republican field was only about half that, say 17 Senators, and a few of them probably didn’t go for Putin money - hence someone like Rand Paul is totally screwed and dies in prison for Treason (unless he asks for asylum in Moscow when he visits Putin now haha) but someone like Marco Rubio probably walks away from this damage scot-free.
There are plenty of OTHER reasons to think why the House is nuttier to begin with - more of a Tea Party influence there, and gerrymandered districts purify the party and no moderates are needed. But how can the ‘patriot’ party, the ‘America’ party of Republicans, suddenly love Putin and Russia so much? It does look like something VERY fishy is going on. Hence I am convinced that at least part of the national GOP (mostly on the House side) and the leadership is guilty of taking Putin millions (and that is treason, they are going to die in prison). Note, their campaigns did it, so their campaign managers and heads of their finance operations will also do the time but some perhaps time only measured in decades, not for life. We could look at 200 to 600 Republicans who are NOT in the White House, who will be tried for treason. This is BY FAR the biggest political scandal - and conspiracy - ever to be seen in America and one of the largest in the world.
TRUMP THEN AND NOW
So Trump. How did he get to the point of taking Putin’s millions. I think he was compromised early (the pee tape) and then Putin bought Trump with convenient bank loans when other banks said no. And I am pretty sure Trump walked into Putin’s lair, totally cocky and confident, that Trump would win, because he had tricked so many other bankers in the past. And Trump had no idea, that NOBODY on the planet prepares better than Putin - and Putin had one of the world’s largest intelligence agencies at his own personal beck and call. Putin had played the chess game to its check-mate before Trump he even had time to open his mouth.
But like a good fisherman, Putin slowly worked Trump and reeled him in. First were the loans to keep Trump solvent. And there was no end to how much Putin would give Trump. And Trump’s kids who are also utterly inept at business. I estimate that Trump took maybe half a BILLION dollars from Putin personally, ie $500 million dollars, and his kids owe Putin another $250 million. This all was before the campaign even started. And Putin was getting good value out of Trump, who would talk on pro-Russian and pro-Putin talking points and was seen as someone who could easily get onto TV and the press, and onto the Republican party events.
Then came Crimea. Putin was stunned at how harsh the reaction was. Angela Merkel and President Obama ratcheted up the biggest sanctions that Russia had ever seen, even bigger than what Reagan did when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. And Obama targeted the oligarchs around Putin who handle Putin’s wealth. It really stifled them to a great degree. And did you see who started from right then, to argue that the sanctions should be lifted, they are too strong, Russia needs some breaks (especially in real estate)? Trump of course, Putin’s man. And what did Trump get in return - more of Putin’s money. Part of that $500 million that I talked about, part of that came DURING the sanctions. So Trump was sanctions-busting. At the money levels involved (several hundred million since 2014), that alone is lifetime in prison, no parole. Trump WILL die in prison.
THE GLORIFIED BOOK TOUR
So how did the campaign money get in from Putin? Remember Trump the early candidate who was ‘self financed’? Trump is a cheapskate (and broke). He couldn’t afford a campaign that ran 6 months. He HAD to drop out before the first primaries started. He had the tiniest staff of nobodies. But he had the star-power that he could get on TV. And strangely, Trump could insist the TV stations come interview Trump at Trump Tower. So he didn’t have to pay to travel to the states where whatever was happening that week. Trump could ‘telephone it in’ and be part of the hoopla. Trump was running his campaign on a shoe string budget, often from his own living room. And he was selling MAGA hats, and promoting his new book. The idea of the glorified book tour, Trump got from his pal Newt Gingrich (remember Captain Moonbase from 2012?). So just take the free TV visibility of the debates, be ‘provocative’ so you hog the media attention, and fight with the others. Because Trump never needed any political allies in the future - he was going to drop out before Iowa Caucuses anyway - then why not sit the early part for the ride and get a huge amount of free publicity? And sell books (and Maga hats).
Nobody could understand how well this would work with Trump. He was perfect for this role. And so he started to bully his rivals - because NO other politician ever was that vicious, knowing they might want to ask that other politician for support sooner or later (and possibly for a JOB) nobody fights hard inside your OWN party. Trump did. He started with truly vicious attacks on his rivals and very soon bullied them to submission. and rose to the top of the polling. Now Trump was stuck in a dilemma. He can’t go forward, he is broke, and he can’t drop out, he was leading all the polls. So somewhere in December they made the decision, hey, we’ll actually GO into the primary season and see how it goes. The early states are so few, and cheap, it isn’t too expensive. And Trump switched from being ‘self financed’ to seeking TONS of money from anyone. But by now, no competent help was available and Trump himself refused to stoop to the level of begging for money, it was beneath him, so this didn’t work well. Then they had the scam of stealing money from the veterans (remember the debate to be chaired by Megyn Kelly, that Trump cancelled out of fear, so he staged a bogus veterans event. Trump ended up stealing money that was supposed to go to vets, into his bankrupt campaign. Yeah, that is the kinda guy we’re talking about. A true scumbag. Stealing from war VETERANS. this from a man who himself is a four-time draft-dodger (ie he did not serve in Vietnam when others did)). Oh, of course Trump still kept up the lies that he is self-financing.
Trump’s series of scams kept his boat alive for the early season, then came the heavy lifting needed for the primaries. In March the primary season got heavy, and you could not just go visit one state at a time. Now you needed real money to buy TV ads and do heavy travel. Now Trump was screwed. He led in the polling but unless he spent real money, he’d lose. His rivals all had good war chests for this very moment. And this is when Manafort stepped in to provide the poisoned chalice. Manafort was a professional who could do a good job as campaign manager but wanted a better title so he was made Campaign Chairman. And he brought the secret Putin cash. Suddenly, the ‘self financed’ Trump started to spend money like a drunken sailor. UTTERLY out of character. And now they started to hire staff and their organization grew rapidly. Here is where the cancer of Putin got hold of the Republican Party in 2016. Through Trump’s idiotic campaign that had just succeeded way too well. If Trump had dropped out as planned, we’d never be in this mess, but Trump made a deal with the devil.
Which he came to regret. Manafort started to manage Trump and he hated that. Manafort took no money (!!!! this should have set ALL alarm bells ringing) ie Manafort was not paid for, and not loyal to Trump. Who paid Manafort, well duh, obviously it was Chess Master Putin. Obviously. And then Manafort started Putin’s agenda. One was to name Pence as the VP. Trump wanted Newt Gingrich and would have preferred Chris Christie as his second choice. Mike Pence was not even on the horizon. Yet Manafort forced Trump to take Pence. It was so bad, that on the night that Pence was announced, Trump didn’t bother to dine with Pence. Pence had to take his wife to a regular chain restaurant in Manhattan for some burgers, on the happiest day of his life, when he has just been named the VP choice for his party’s President. Trump has always despised Pence and yeah, that was typical of what Trump tought of him. What the exact Russia and Putin connection is with Pence, I don’t know (and not really care much) but obviously the only one who wanted Pence was Manafort (and thus, Putin). And Trump was already then clearly so much in Putin’s pocket, he had to swallow the bitter pill of Pence.
TRUMP CAN’T WIN
Now fast forward to the Convention. By then Trump is down ten points to Hillary Clinton. Everybody privately is saying November will be a bloodbath, and because the Republican voters picked this unelectable idiot, the party will lose the White House. And very likely they will lose the Senate too. But they might be able to hold the House, if they had enough money - but Hillary and the Democrats were easily outraising the Republicans in campaign funds. It didn’t help, that Trump was feuding with all factions of the party even during the convention, from Ted Cruz to John Kasich to Mitt Romney. Here is where I think the unholy alliance happened. Consider the logic. If Trump is going to lose ‘anyway’ and Trump is taking Putin money - then NOBODY will be investigating the funding of the guy who lost !!! This is a little bit like the play and movie ‘The Producers’ where they try to find the worst play to put on Broadway, that is a flop (‘Springtime for Hitler’) and then the producers can make a profit. Because the GOP was certain Trump will lose, and thus nobody will ever ‘know’ that he was taking Putin money, why not take some of that money - to safeguard the HOUSE seats. Even if the GOP lost the White House and Senate to the Democrats, at least they’d hold the House. I think this was the poisoned apple that Manafort brought to the GOP - and the NRA. And the first clear evidence of the PARTY being in Putin’s pocket was that GOP Convention, when they removed the language condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
That was a VERY clear sign, that Manafort and Trump were cooking something with Putin, and that at least some in the leadership of the GOP were involved. Now with hindsight, we can see the vehicle how the funds were distributed (and laundered) was the NRA and seems like most of the GOP House delegation and some Senators got Putin money. I don’t see any reason that any Governors or local races would have gotten Putin’s money. So this is only really Trump, some Senators, and then House members (and their senior staff). Now looking over the past 2 years, we can see yes, those people HAVE had a remarkable love affair with Putin and Russia, as has the NRA. Obviously Trump had loved Putin from years ago.
HE WINS?
Now, Trump HIMSELF did not think he’d win in November. He had planned a new TV empire (his love is TV, and ratings, not this messy unpopular job of being POTUS). And all the polling said of course Hillary wins. On election day morning, all early results were consistent with Hillary winning. But the afternoon a FEW states, and a FEW districts within those states went surprisingly-heavily for Trump. I do not know if this was actual voter fraud (it may have been) or just a very well executed get-out-the-voter drive and simultaneous successful voter suppression of the other side. But the game shifted in the afternoon, and Trump won. Trump was so stunned, he had not planned a speech of victory, and he had not made ANY real preparation about his transition (which led to his very botched early months in office and to this day, he is missing a full staff).
We know now, that Putin’s army - literally military - helped in the cyberwar. We also know that election SYSTEMs were hacked. We don’t know - and we may never know for sure - IF Putin managed to ‘change votes’. It IS possible that he did. It is possible, IF he did, that we will find out. It is equally possible, that if he did, we will NOT find out, and the holes will just be quietly fixed and this election rigging-disaster would be hidden forever from the public. Who knows? But we DO know Putin TRIED to influence the election, and he did it to help Trump and hurt Hillary. And yes, the polls were tight on the eve of the election (months of Putin-fed propaganda and his online troll army did a great job) and that may be what did it. But it is possible that actual voting systems were hacked (or even, possibly, some local election fraud happened in Trump’s favor, would not be the first election with fraud haha.)
This messed up the gambit that the Putin money could never be uncovered. And now Trump was stuck being President. And right from the start, he was told, that Russia had hacked the election. And right from the start, Trump - KNOWING that - started to push the lies that there was no attack by Russia - or it could be anyone, a 400 pound guy on a bed - and that there ‘was no collusion’. Note, nobody apart from Trump’s team has ever accused Trump of collusion. There is no CRIME of collusion. But Trump has successfully inserted that defense into the debate, by repeating it, and his surrogates repeat it endlessly. No collusion, no collusion. When journalists or rival stalk of Trump’s possible crimes they talk of CONSPIRACY not of collusion. The only times they use the collusion word, is if they QUOTE someone from the Trump team. Collusion is not a crime! But Trump has been promising us now for nearly 2 years, that ‘there was no collusion’. But then inspite of all the desperate attempts to hide Russia’s role, we end up with the Mueller investigation. And let me sing a short song of praise about Bruce Wayne (=Batman). Or if you prefer, James Bond.
BRUCE WAYNE
Robert Mueller is a Republican. He is as straight-nail cop as you can hope for. He is a multiple-decorated Vietnam War veteran. He was a Marine, he went to Parachute school (very special super-Marine) and then he passed the Army Rangers school (the toughest military school for infantry in ANY country. All other friends of America will send their BEST special troops to train with the Rangers. It is THE most elite, you can hope to be in the military. A super soldier. A US Army Ranger. This, from a MARINE (they are rivals).
I could stop here. But I won’t. Mueller then went into law enforcement. And he tried THE most demanding MASSIVE conspiracy cases and notorious criminals. The most impossible Mafia boss to catch, the ‘Teflon Don’ as he was called, John Gotti. Gotti had avoided convictions by multiple prosecutors over several decades. Mueller finally caught him and put behind bars. The most notorious drug lord, Noriega. Mueller caught him. The Lockerby bombings of Pan Am in Scotland by Libya? (ie Muammar Gaddafi) Yes, Mueller ran that investigation and got his conviction. He is SUPERMAN. And this man is beyond any shred of doubt about his honesty and integrity. What makes me most amazed about his case against Trump, is that up to today, there have been no leaks whatsoever. Mueller is certainly the best prosecutor alive in the USA, he is probably the best prosecutor ever to have lived, in any country. He WILL get to the bottom of this, and he no doubt knows already today who all are guilty, and is just meticulously building his case, starting from the foot soldiers, and then moving on up. EXACTLY like a Mafia case like John Gotti.
It is possible that I am wrong about Trump or the GOP or the NRA. if so, Mueller will not be bringing charges against anyone who is not guilty. We will know in coming months. But he WILL get everybody who IS guilty. And if I am correct - and all the signs suggest this is true, that Putin funneled millions into Trump and the GOP in 2016, through the NRA, anywhere from $50 million to $100 million, then it is treason-time. Putin bought the election and Trump sold it. He used Manafort and the NRA as a middle man, and the GOP or at least parts of it, were also in it, and become collateral damage. Essentially all who were in Trump’s campaign, and most senior people serving in his White House will also go to prison.
And because we have systematic behavior by Trump in Putin’s best interest, against America’s best interests, we can be sure Trump gets a monster-size sentence for treason. I do hope they will not give him the death penalty, that would be too easy. I want him to live a very long life, eating healthy food, no more greasy hamburgers, in prison, and serve out as much of his sentence as doctors can keep him alive. And yea, he could get a cumulative sentence in the scale of 1,000 years, eligible for parole after 600 years...
PUT YOURSELF IN MUELLER'S SHOES
Imagine if you were a cop. Regular cop. And you found evidence of a vicious child molester rapist murderer. You already know who it is, you've seen the mutilated bodies, and you start the investigation against the perp. First, how would you FEEL. Utterly totally disgusted and angry. Then, how would you proceed. you KNOW the legal system will TOSS the case out (he gets to walk free) if you mess up. You cannot go beat him up no matter how much you would want to. Your only recourse (for a cop who is not corrupted) is to proceed meticulously and make sure you have the perfect solid case, that when it goes to trial, this horrible criminal ends in prison. Right? Much as you might be disgusted and angry, you KNOW you have to proceed within the legal guidelines. And if you are VERY motivated to 'get this guy' you will be EXTRA careful not to mess anything up, and not to MISS anything.
Now put yourself in Robert Mueller's shoes a year ago. He sees the accusations. He sees some evidence. He starts his investigation. And right from the start he has SOME evidence which makes it perfectly clear - Trump had NEGOTIATED with Putin (directly or through middle-men) on how to take MILLIONS of bribes from Russia - RUSSIA - to sell the American Presidency - WTF? Trump was negotiating to sell the US GOVERNMENT? To Russia? There is no question, Mueller knew this a year ago. There is SO much tidbit evidence in the public domain about Putin money - and now we see Putin admissions of helping Trump in the eleciton (so of course Mueller would have had that info from US sources already from 2016) and Trump is such an inept fool, his Keystone Cops method of being a Mafia boss leaves fingerprints in every crime scene. Mueller has KNOWN that Trump sold out to Putin. Mueller has known this for a year, but he needs the evidence to convict. And he has found a VAST conspiracy that includes the NRA and at least parts of the GOP, in addition to Trump crime family and his close campaign people. So imagine HOW Mueller feels? He sees his own President, selling the USA to Russia. Can you imagine Mueller letting anything fall through the cracks? Can you imagine - a Vietnam war vet, wounded in battle, to see his President sell the country to Russia. This is why Mueller has the best team conceivable to assist in the investigation and they will get everybody. And everybody will be so deeply proven with evidence, everybody lands in prison. But spare a thought for Mueller. He sees Trump and some traitor Republicans attacking him daily. Yet he doesn't flinch, and there still are no leaks. If there ever was a patriot, it is Robert Mueller.
THE END GAME
So how will this play out. Mueller knows Trump is dirty and just about every single other person involved. Because this involved international money transfers, Mueller got hold of the right bank ‘IBAN’ codes and the rest is history. He follows the money trail. And then he starts from the bottom and works up. But WHEN? I thought it was the Michael Cohen raid in April that will destroy Trump. That turns out to be so trivial, now Mueller just told New York to wait, he first does the big crimes they can do the small-time stuff later. And Mueller will be FAR better served if the House is in Democratic hands, so he will slow-walk this to early next year. Expect the end of Trump to come early in 2017 and once Mueller brings his evidence first privately to the Congress bipartisan leadership, they will all agree, this is way beyond just a minor problem. It IS possible that they prepare for formal impeachment. But in the case of truly irrefutable treason, I do think the Congressional leadership will instantly agree, this has to go via Trump’s resignation and plea of guilty and public TV speech admission of guilt.
I would think it then plays out so, that Mueller drives up to the White House in a line of FBI cars, with the full Congressional bipartisan leadership and they walk into the Oval Office. Trump will have been waiting and having nightmares of this day. He knew they are coming. And Mueller says, we know what you did. You’ll get 1,000 years. We have you on tape. We have all required evidence of the wire transfers etc. And enough of your underlings have testified. You will be impeached later today in a special session of Congress. Or you can resign. If you resign, you read a full confession on live TV and you can walk into that FBI car without handcuffs. If you don’t agree, these FBI officers will take you into custody and we’ll have the perp walk.
The deal for Trump is that he resigns immediately and makes full confession to camera, signs the confession and agrees it was voluntary, with his attorneys present (in the presence of a panel of federal judges to testify). He immediately hands his Presidency to Pence who will take the Oath of Office. Trump then goes to federal prison for the rest of his life - but he WILL have a private wing, so Trump never need fear any other inmate will stick some polonium poisoning into Trump. And he will have a retired US Navy cook who will cook all his food fresh, so he can’t be poisoned through the food either. And he will plead guilty to all charges and will die in prison. If he agrees to that deal, he can walk out with his dignity. His fate is already sealed. But the nation is far better served if the President reads a full confession now, rather than a prolonged fight. Then of course there will be the court case, when Trump has his short jail haircut (semi-bald).
They will ensure that Trump’s total legal team is there to give him advice, the network TV cameras are told to come to the White House and then Trump is given say one hour to decide. And of course he takes it, he knew all along, this is a crime he is doing. His luck has run out. And he is a coward. Putin has put the fear of god into Trump and Trump knows unless he is inside a maximum security prison, Putin will come and give a polonium poisoning injection to Trump. This is his only way out.
Ok, or it could go the normal way, he resists, they have to run it for weeks in Congress until they impeach.
And separately, obviously all other co-conspirators - hundreds probably - will be rounded up essentially in a giant FBI operation. Many of the people are millionaires and could try to flee the country on their private jets or yachts etc.
And it will be done suddenly, with no warning. We’ve seen Mueller’s ship is the tightest there has ever been. There are no leaks. When Mueller is ready, he will do it. I expect him to wait until early in the New Year.
I would think Pence has to be a Putin stooge too. So he signs a similar deal, he stays President for a few hours only, then resigns and reports to prison. But just long enough that Congress can appoint a new VP for Pence who then takes over as the first ‘clean’ President. And wouldn’t that be perfect poetic justice if that turned out to be the person who got more votes than Trump in 2016, ie Hillary Clinton haha..
AFTERMATH
What then? The NRA will be dissolved and their leaders go to prison for life plus many hundred years. A new gun group will be formed for gun owners, and probably the gun manufacturers will eventually set up a new lobby but they will never have any meaningful power in politics anymore. This means that sensible gun legislation is easy to pass in 2019.
The GOP will not die. A lot of is NATIONAL politicians and their campaign staff, plus essentially all who worked in, or are working in the White House will be behind bars. But there will be plenty of the Republican party left. To a VERY large degree, the prisoners will be ‘Tea Party’ members ie the Sarah Palin nutter wing. Nice thing, it would be healthy for the Republicans to get rid of that baggage.
I think the Democrats will bring back the old law of ‘The Fairness Doctrine’, a broadcast regulation that Reagan got rid of. That change in laws spawned Fox News. I think a modernized Fairness Doctrine governing also cable news, and possibly even Facebook etc, will help remove the cancer of ‘fake news’ like the brainwashing done by Fox News.
The next elected President will be the total anti-Trump. And the Republicans will for decades to come, have major debates about who is the ‘most not Trump’ - so everybody will release tax returns back to when they were 12 years old, etc.
Lots of election laws will be changed to ensure this can’t happen again. I think part is the corruptive effect of money and the ‘Citizens United’ ruling will be legislated out, by laws that the Supreme Court will accept. I would hope, that the appointments by Trump, would all voluntarily step down, and allow themselves to be re-nominated on merit, if the new President wants, including the two Supreme Court nominees, but that may be the wishful thinker in this blogger who always hopes for the ‘Hollywood’ ending.
America will survive Trump. Democracy will prevail. This cancer will pass. But we ARE witnessing the biggest political scandal of our lifetime. Enjoy the ending stage of the spectacle.
Now, here at the bottom some parody songs I’ve written about the Helsinki Hostage Summit:
THE SONGS
I've been inspired to write new lyrics to several songs after the Helsinki Hostage Summit. They are very similar in their jokes, so just pick the type of music you prefer to enjoy. In no particular order:
Trump's fave artists include Frank Sinatra. One of MY fave Sinatra tunes is the one he sang as a duet with his daughter Nancy Sinatra, Something Stupid
Something Stupid: Frank & Nancy Sinatra
I know I stand in line until you think you have the time
To see Helsinki with me.
And if I will belittle France I know that there's a chance
You will be laughing with me.
Then afterwards we drop into a messy Syria
And have a war, or two?
And then I go and spoil it all by saying something stupid
Like I trust you.
Like W saw in your eyes that you despise those Polish guys:
NATO at your door.
And though it's just a port for you Crimea new
We’ll let you keep it heretofore.
I deceive every day to find some clever ways to say
To make the Germans hate you.
But then I think I'll wait until the trade wars getting late
And all of Europe fears you.
The time is right your nuclear might it fills our fears
The sky gets red and, oh! The blasts, so true.
And then I go and spoil it all by saying something stupid
Like I trust you.
Original lyrics by The SEVENTH STEVE aka HatRat aka T-Dawg based on
Frank and Nancy Sinatra duet Something Stupid. Nobody stupid was hurt or
humiliated in the creation of this joke, although anyone ‘stable’ level of genius
would be too dumb to even understand such slights. Meanwhile in Trumpoworld,
our Traitor-In-Chief is studying the meanings of ‘would’ and ‘not’. He is
currently still failing his tutorials.
Then one of the first songs I thought of after seeing the Helsinki Hostage Summit, is the ultimate song about defeat, ie Waterloo by Abba (the song that started their international career and was the Eurovision Song Contest winning song)
Abba / Waterloo
My my
At Helsinki Our Trumpster did surrender
Oh yeah
And he had met his destiny in quite a Russian way
The history book on the shelf
Is suddenly repeating itself
Helsinki! Trump was defeated, they won the war
Treasonous! Promise to love Putin ever more
Meddling! Couldn't admit if he wanted to
Evidence! Knowing the facts he still lies to you
Wow Wow Wow Wow
Treasonous! Finally showing his loyalty!
My my
We tried to hold Trump back, but he was dumber
Oh yeah
And now it seems his only chance is giving up to them
And how could Trump ever refuse
He feels like he wins when we lose!
Helsinki! Trump was defeated, they won the war
Treasonous! Promise to love Putin ever more
Meddling! Couldn't admit if he wanted to
Evidence! Knowing the facts he still lies to you
Wow Wow Wow Wow
Treasonous! Finally showing his loyalty!
Original lyrics by THE SEVENTH STEVE aka T-Dawg aka The HatRat,
based on Abba lyrics to ‘Waterloo’. No toilets (loos) were harmed in the
making of this song. No water was boarded either. But Trump just crawled
up Putin’s ass and licked it on public TV. The world is disgusted (but Putin
seems pleased). Please feel free to sing Waterloo and serenade the Cult45
Deplorables with this song.
Then there is one of the most horrible songs I know, but somehow the words just seemed to work for this song. It is 'Seasons in the Sun' by Terry Jacks and I apologize if you happen to hate this song as much as I do. Feel free to skip this entry.
Terry Jacks: Seasons In The Sun
Goodbye to you, my trusted friend
We've known each other since fourty nine or when
Together we've climbed hills and trees
Learned of wars and ABC's
Purple hearts, amputated knees
Goodbye, NATO, it's hard to die
When all the turds are shitting in the sky
Now that Putin’s in his hair
Pee-tape girls are everywhere
Think of Trump and he'll be there
We had spies, we found out, we had reasons to be glum
But the lies that Trump spout, were just treasons of our time.
Goodbye, Papa, please pray for me
You are the black sheep of the family
We tried to teach you right from wrong
Too much pussygrabbing going on
Wonder how you get along
We had spies, they attacked, Russian spies are on the run
But the lies Trump gave us, were just treasons he has done
Original Lyrics by Seventh Steve / HatRat / T Dawg based
on the hit song Seasons In The Sun by Terry Jacks. No
seasons were hurt in the preparation of this joke.
Ok lets take something more modern, How about Amy Winehouse? Her monster hit Rehab or better known as 'No no no!'
Rehab / Amy Winehouse
They showed me Russians hacked our election
I said no, no, no
Yes, I knew of the hack
By my pal Putin, we know, know know
I ain’t got the time
And my voters think I’m fine
They showed me Russians hacked our election
I said no, no, no
I’d rather be abroad with Putin
I ain’t got seventy days
'Cause there's nothing, there's nothing you can teach me
That I can't learn from my friends at Fox news
I didn’t get blessed with much class
But I know that Trump balloon has a big ass
They showed me Russians hacked our election
I said no, no, no
Original lyrics by The Seventh Steve / HatRat / T Dawg based on Amy
Winehouse hit Rehab. Nobody was forced into rehab in the creation of
this joke.
And certainly we should do some of The Beatles, to serenade our Fool On The Hill. I picked Yesterday as the perfect song, that Trump might sing, when before Helsinki, all his troubles were so far, away....
Yesterday / The Beatles (Trump Edition)
Suddenly,
I’m not half the man you thought I’d be.
There’s a Putin looming over me,
Oh Helsinki came suddenly.
Why I had to go?
I don’t know, I cannot say.
I said everything wrong,
NATO left in disarray, ay, ay, ay.
Dossier?
All those spies they seemed so far away.
Now it looks as though they’re here to stay.
Oh I prefer the Putin’s way.
Why'd I have to say?
I “would” say, I “wouldn't” say?
I said something wrong.
Now I want to run away!
Yesterday!
Strength was such an easy game to play.
Now I need to yell at Merkel, or May,
I don’t believe in USA
Original lyrics by The Seventh Steve aka HatRat aka T Dawg based
on The Beatles song Yesterday. No days were hurt or damaged in the
creation of this joke.
Or then how about some Eurythmix? Annie Lennox powerful vocals and that song which seems to be made to describe Trump: Would I Lie to You?
Would I Lie To You (Trump Ed)
(based on The Eurythmix song)
Would I lie to you?
Would I lie to you voters?
Now would I say something that wasn't true?
I'm asking you voter,
Would I lie so much to you?
Putin! Knows what's in store.
NATO won’t be nomore.
I've told my lies.
I've walked them back.
Now watch me talkin'.
Walking back some more
Believe me - I'll fake it fake it
Believe me - I'll fake it fake it
Would I lie to you?
Would I lie to you voters?
Now would I claim something was ‘just fake news’?
I'm asking you voter
Would I lie lie lie to you?
Helsinki? I’m in submission.
Hostage! But no collusion!
I’m the biggest fake.
That much is true.
I’ll blame someone else.
I am deceiving you-u-u-u
Believe me - I'll brake it brake it
Believe me - Putin will take it
Original lyrics by The SEVENTH STEVE aka HatRat aka TDawg
based on The Eurythmix song Would I Lie To You. No lies were were
broken, faked or fact-checked in the creation of this joke. In unrelated
news, a Mr T in DC has been attending advanced linguistic courses on
the finer aspects of advanced vocabulary such as ‘would’ and ‘not’. His
professors report that his proficiency level remains stubbornly at ‘stable’.
And with this many songs, it couldn't be a HatRat sing-along, if we didn't have Monty Python's Lumberjack Song, eh? YET another version of I'm a Lumberjack and I'm OK....
I’m A “Patriot” (and I’m OK)
(to tune of Lumberjack Song by Monty Python)
I never loved America anyway
I just wanted to sing, to sing...
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I trust Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Believes Putin, who lies all day)
The FBI, and CIA
Told me that in ‘16
our election day was hijacked
by Putin’s army team
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I trust Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Believes Putin, who lies all day)
My Department of Justice
Said they knew all along
They said it was the Russkies
But I insist they’re wrong
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I trust Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Believes Putin, who lies all day)
When CNN and ABC
Told us of Russia’s moves
I jumped right in to declare
It’s disgraceful fake news!
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I trust Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Believes Putin, who lies all day)
When Canada, and Germany
plus France, Holland and Brits
Said Putin threatens NATO
I bravely blamed their wits
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I trust Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Believes Putin, who lies all day)
In Helsinki I met Putin
I wilted like a flower
I crawled all up his asshole
And licked him for the hour
I’m a “Patriot” and I’m ok
I love Putin, I always say
(He’s the President its not ok!)
(Owned by Putin, behaves that way)
Original lyrics by The Seventh Steve aka HatRat
aka T-Dawg, based on Monty Python’s The
Lumberjack Song. No lumberjacks were maimed
or even cut severely in the creation of this joke.
ABOUT THE SONGS
So these are obviously parody wordings to existing songs. I never wrote the originals and I have no rights to the original lyrics. I made parody songs. I have no problem on MY work being used by anyone but please respect all rights ie the song and original lyrics if you use them in any way. From my part, I am happy to immediately here and forever give away my rights, but if anyone does perform any of these songs, please make some recording of it (take video with your moblie phone or whatever) and then please post somewhere like YouTube or Twitter or Facebook and send the link to me so I can send my followers to see it.
ABOUT COMMENTS
I welcome discussion and am very open to all points of view. Be aware, if you have not read the full article and post something stupid, I will delete your comment without mercy. And I have already admitted that I - like almost everybody else - got the 2016 forecast wrong. If you even mention that matter in your comment, I will delete it. Since I admited back in 2016 on this blog, that I was wrong, there will be no gloating now. Finally, if you use the terms 'fake news' or 'mainstream media' or 'deep state' I will delete your comment for being one who is brainwashed. EVEN if you feel you have a valid reason to believe something needing those words, I won't waste my readers' time on it - so don't bother. Stay on topoic, stay away from fake news, main stream media (or lame) and deep state and we're good.. You can disagree with me as much as you want I look forward to some good debate, back when I was writing tons of political blogs in 2015-2016, I learned VERY much from the comments.
(more songs might be coming later, I am not 100% convinced I am done yet... check back later)
Sorry for the radio silence on the blog, but there hasn't been that much really 'news' in this space, compared to years past when we sometimes had to write several blog articles on the same day..
So the past month or two? The Quarterly results cycle came in. The item often of great interest is the Apple iPhone performance. 52.2 million iPhones shipped and that gives roughly a flat market share compared to the year before, so about 14%-15%. I'll come and do the full math later of the quarterly data. That race is no longer in any way interesting.
But two Top 10 smartphone brands ARE in the news. One who is facing imminent death and the other who is making a miraculous return-from-dead. So imminent death and current Top 10 brand first. ZTE. The Trump administration has put a massive squeeze on ZTE and the company is in serious trouble of imminent collapse. Then bizarrely, Trump reversed course and felt he needed to protect CHINESE employment (???) and after yet another typical Trump-mess, we now are at a Never-Neverland where Trump's own party Republicans are revolting against their President and well, ZTE may end up a casualty of this mess. We'll keep an eye on it.
In supremely delightful news, Nokia's come-back is well on schedule. The first major analyst house has now ranked Nokia smartphones back in the Top 10 (Strategy Analytics, for Q1 global numbers, see this article via Nokia Power User). They have given a count of 4.1 million Nokia smartphones sold in Q1 with 1.2% market share and a global ranking of 9th. Congrats HMD !!! Excellent work. Good luck further this year. This is the first analyst to give a Top 10 position for Nokia smartphones and that is only for the 'down' quarter that follows Christmas sales peak quarter, so lets not yet read too much into it. But I predicted Nokia will return to the Top 10 this year, and even if currently they are on the cusp, and other analyst houses don't see it quite that good yet for HMD, this is a great trend to be on, continuing growth in market share, and we should see plenty of major analyst houses report this data during the Summer and then Autumn periods.
Then onto more good news: Facebook is in serious trouble. Duh, they are the Evil Empire Mini-Me (with Microsoft being the true Evil Empire of all time, in tech). So just noted in passing, with the Cambridge Analytica mess, that Facebook is finally caught up in the disastrous business ethics their company was built upon. As I always preach in my lectures and seminars: "Don't spam, don't spy; ask permission and satisfy." Facebook is the very antithesis of good behavior and the sooner they die away, the better. I don't in any way suggest Facebook (or Microsoft) to die in the foreseeable future, but I do expect that the next US Congress (when Democrats take control again) will act decisively against Facebook's over-reach and probably split up the company similar to how AT&T the telecoms giant was broken up several decades ago.
Ok, that is my quick brief update. I'll do the math on the Top 10 smartphone market share data in the near future too, for the record. And of the comments? Somehow the comments have been misbehaving on the blog, I'll try to sort that out, but we should all have comments open, of course, as always.
It is time for the annual picture. Smartphone races. This blog is the only place where you get the full Top 10 market shares every quarter (for free). And the installed base of the smartphones. And the OS wars. With no registration. No ads. No spam. Just the facts... Plus as a bonus, my analysis as well...
Let us start with the big picture. And before I do that, I need to tell you that I have changed the way I count one of the players. If you are not a regular reader of this blog, you probably never heard of 'BBK' before. But if you follow smartphones, you probably have noticed the rapid rise of Vivo and Oppo out of China. Well, BBK is their parent and yes a giant Chinese electronics company that first started out making DVD players etc. Over the past few years they've moved quite aggressively into the smartphone races.
BBK is to smartphones what say General Motors is to cars. GM sells the popular Chevrolet and Pontiac and Cadillac brand cars (and used to also own the Opel brand in Germany, Vauxhall in Britain, Holden in Australia etc). Yet 'GM' or General Motors generally is not a consumer car brand (although GM does sell trucks and heavier vehicles by that brand). Similarly BBK doesn't use the BBK brand to sell phones. It sells the increasingly popular Vivo and Oppo mass market brands that are major brands througout Asia, and are starting to appear on other continents as well. And what would be the Cadillac brand of BBK? It is OnePlus, the third major phone brand of the Chinese corporation (which has others as well). So to be clear. In the past, I listed BBK brands separately (Vivo and Oppo were large enough to fit into the Top 10). But that is not fair, as I count Motorola smartphone sales into Lenovo numbers, and Palm and Blackberry sales into TCL numbers together with Alcatel and their other brands. And we count Nubia into ZTE, etc. So we really do need to handle BBK as a manufacturer and do the proper global market share with the two big BBK brands added together. But do not despair. I will ALSO now break out the brand-based Top 10, as a separate table. So you get (of course) the best info, via the CDB blog. Your favorite source of all mobile industry stats... Now to the big table. Who won the year? (That was no contest, it is the same brand that wins this race every year - and by a mile)
2017 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURER SALES STATISTICS
Rank . Manufacturer (Brands) . . . 2017 units . . Share . . 2016 units . . Share . . 2015 units . . Share
1 (1) . Samsung (Galaxy) . . . . . . . 317.2 M . . . . 21.1% . . 308.9 M . . . 20.8% . . .322.0 M . . . 22.4%
2 (3) . . BBK (Vivo Oppo OnePlus). 225.0 M . . . . 14.9% . . 174.0 M . . . 11.8% . . . . 85.0 M . . . . 5.7%
3 (2) . Apple (iPhone) . . . . . . . . . . 215.8 M . . . . 14.3% . . 215.4 M . . . 14.6% . . . 231.4 M . . . 16.1%
4 (4) . Huawei (Honor) . . . . . . . . . 153.0 M . . . . 10.2% . . 139.0 M . . . . 9.4% . . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5%
5 (7) . Xiaomi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92.5 M . . . . . 6.1%. . . 54.3 M . . . . .3.7%. . . . 71.0 M . . . . 4.9%
6 (5) . ZTE (Nubia) . . . . . . . . . . . . 60.8 M . . . . . 4.0% . . . 57.0 M . . . . 3.8% . . . 57.2 M . . . . 4.0%
7 (6) . LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.0 M . . . . . 3.7% . . . 55.1 M . . . . 3.7% . . . . 59.7 M . . . . 4.2%
8 (8) . Lenovo (Motorola) . . . . . . . 48.9 M . . . . . 3.2% . . . 53.1 M . . . . 3.6% . . . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3%
9 (-) . . Gionee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.0 M . . . . . 2.6% . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - . . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -
10 (9) . TCL (Alcatel, Blackberry..) . 24.7 M . . . . . 1.6% . . . 38.0 M . . . . 2.6%. . . . 43.5 M . . . . 3.0%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285.6 M . . . . 19.0%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,505.5 M . . . . . . . . . . . 1,480.9 M . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 27 Feb 2018
This data may be freely used and repeated
Congrats Samsung. So for the actual global manufacturers, the big change is that Apple falls from number 2 slot last year (a position it has held since year 2012 after Nokia fell and Samsung jumped past Apple to take the top slot) to number 3 for year 2017. Note that Apple is on a downward trend from a peak of 20% global market share 6 years ago, to the last three years of 16%, 15% and now 14%. I expect Apple to drop to 13% by the end of this year, 2018. Meanwhile BBK the new number two? They have had a rocketship ride to number 2 and only breached the Top 10 three years ago. They were ranked third at the end of 2016 (with the revised accounting, by which their separate brands Vivo, Oppo and OnePlus are added together, as I have done for the above table). But look out Apple! Lurking in the wings is manufacturer brand number 4. Huawei! The Chinese giant is steadily growing, and last 3 years has gone from 8% to 9% to 10%. This year we will likely see a single quarter where Huawei outsells Apple, likely one of the summer quarters. And next year (2019) we'll see the fight for 12% market share, will Apple hold that third ranking or will Huawei snatch it? The trend says Apple will lose its share by 2020 the latest and fall to fourth rank among smartphone manufacturing companies globally.
By the way, for those who 'hate Apple' (and please don't count me into that group..). If you want to see the glass really really less than half full... Apple sales were flat in a year that was flat. Out of the Top 5, all other 4 manufacturers GREW their sales - Samsung by 3%, BBK by 29%, Huawei by 10% and Xiaomi by 70%. Don't fall into the silly trap to think, that Apple is somehow 'doing fine'. It is LOSING the battle. Market share down AGAIN and now the reality is starting to come home to various developers, especially in the Emerging World, that actually, all you need is Android. This is EXACTLY the same disaster that hit the Mac world back way before Apple went close to bankruptcy. The believers were finally forced to face reality, that even as the Mac was far superior - as a user interface - to the early Windows - the Windows personal computers were 'good enough' and most users wanted the major platform. And then the developers stopped supporting the tiny platform. The Mac OS never had 10% market share. iOS touched twice that, but is headed towards similar levels to ten percent. Currently at 14% and still declining. Now, if Apple 'wanted to' - it COULD reverse this decline. But will they do that, or will they just continue to milk the rich users, until the users get fed up with paying the iTax? Who knows. Currently Apple is the richest company in the world. It won't remain that if it continues to abuse its customers. But still today, iPhone loyalty and customer satisfaction is incredjbly strong. Apple has a long time to figure out what it wants. Yet, as I've said for years, the mistake of abandoning the future will come back to haunt Apple. Now most sane people see that iOS is a niche market, and only Android is a mass market. I told you so ten years ago...
As to the industry, growth is down to snail's pace now. The global market for smartphones grew only by 1.8% last year vs 2016. The earlier part of the year showed better growth but the final quarter had a significant slowing down, all three of the major analyst houses that reported Q4 numbers had the quarter down vs the year before. As to the total annual sales, the three houses (Gartner, IDC and Strategy Analytics) don't quite agree. One thinks annual sales declined while tow think they grew. I use their numbers for the average of total market size, as always. Then I use my own sources and public sources to allocate the market shares on a 'best fit' basis. Where companies are brave enough to give a true number (like well, it seems we're down to Apple and Huawei) we use those. Else I start from analyst reports and then use my best judgment for what math works best. Well. That is the manufacturer 'race'. Let's do the new 'brand race' table here as well, where we separate out the various brands like Vivo, Oppo for BBK and Motorola out of Lenovo, etc..:
2017 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE BRAND SALES STATISTICS
Rank . Brand . . . . 2017 units . . Share . . 2016 units . . Share . . 2015 units . . Share
1 (1) . Samsung . . 317.2 M . . . . 21.1% . . 308.9 M . . . 20.8% . . .322.0 M . . . 22.4%
2 (2) . Apple . . . . . 215.4 M . . . . 14.3% . . 215.4 M . . . 14.6% . . 231.4 M . . . 16.1%
3 (3) . Huawei . . . . 153.0 M . . . . 10.2% . . 139.0 M . . . . 9.4% . . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5%
4 (4) . Oppo . . . . . . 116.7 M . . . . 7.7% . . . . 91.0 M . . . . 6.1% . . . 50.0 M . . . . 3.5%
5 (5) . Vivo . . . . . . . . 96.3 M . . . . 6.4% . . . . 73.0 M . . . . 4.9% . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -
6 (8) . Xiaomi . . . . . . 92.5 M . . . . 6.1%. . . . 54.3 M . . . . .3.7%. . . . 71.0 M . . . . 4.9%
7 (6) . ZTE * . . . . . . 54.7 M . . . . 3.6% . . . . 57.0 M . . . . 3.8% . . . 57.2 M . . . . 4.0%
8 (7) . LG . . . . . . . . 55.0 M . . . . .3.7% . . . . 55.1 M . . . . 3.7% . . . 59.7 M . . . . 4.2%
9 (9) . Lenovo ** . . . 39.6 M . . . . 2.6% . . . . 53.1 M . . . . 3.6% . . . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3%
10 (-) . Gionee . . . . . 39.0 M . . . . . 2.6% . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - . . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -
Other . . . . . . . . . . . 326.1 M . . . . 27.6%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . .1,505.5 M . . . . . . . . . 1,480.9 M . . . . . . . . .1,437.3 M
* ZTE without Nubia brand; ** Lenovo without Motorola brand
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 27 Feb 2018
This data may be freely used and repeated
So in the brand wars, Samsung safely number 1, holding market share even at 21% vs last year same. Apple slowly fading, now down to 14% again one point down vs the previous year. The Top 5 stays the same as the year before. Xiaomi doing a second run at the Top 5, just misses it. Gionee is the new brand that kicks out Alcatel/TCL from last year.
BTW how good was my guidance? I told you in November what the Top 5 will look like for the full year. Three months ago I said that the Top 5 will be Samsung 21%, Apple 14%, Huawei 10%, Oppo 8% and Vivo 6% and that Xiaomi would be 6th. How did it turn out? EXACTLY that. Sammy 21, iPhone 14, Honor 10, Oppo and Vivo 8 and 6. And Xiaomi was left to 6th ranking.. Yeah.. Perhaps I do know a bit about this industry...
OS WARS
So what about the operating systems? That war was won years ago by Android. We know that Apple sold 14.3% of all the smartphones in 2017. That is the OS market share for iOS. Android is nearly the rest. There is less than 0.5% of 'other' OS platforms which nearly all have died. So Android has.. about 85.4%. So Android sells 6 times as many smartphones than Apple. This is just the smartphone new sales (bearing in mind, that Apple share is contiuously declining and Android continuously growing) but there also are 'non smartphone' devices that you should add, to get the full reach of a platform. For Android we have tablets, smart watches, TV sets etc. For iOS it is the iPads and Apple Watches and whatnot. But this blog isn't about all tech platforms, I focus on where the most relevant tech is - the only universal gadget on the planet - mobile phones - and their evolution (= smartphones) and the various tech we do with them from voice calls and messaging to the cameraphone to the mobile internet (and haha, 'apps' which is only games if you want to make money) to the future of such things as mobile money and Augmented Reality etc. For mobile phones, 79% of all phones sold in year 2017 were smartphones. I have revised my estimates of when the last dumbphones will be sold, and now look at year 2021 as the target year, when 'all' ie by Q4 of that year, more than 99% of all new phones sold would be smartphones. From that year, it will still be a couple of years further, until the installed base reaches 99% smartphones (because older phones remain in use). Which brings us conveniently to that topic of 'installed base'... how is that installed base of smartphones doing? Lets take another table
SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AT END OF 2017 BY OPERATING SYSTEM
Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2017 units . . share . 2016 units . . share . . 2015 units . . share
1 (1) . . Android . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,696 M . . . . 81% . . 2,560 M . . . . . 80% . . 2,079 M . . . . . 79%
a . . . . . . Pure Android/Play . . . .. 1,806 M . . . . 54%
b . . . . . . Forked Android/AOSP . . . 890 M . . . . 27%
2 (2) . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 612 M . . . . 19% . . . 602 M . . . . . 19% . . . . 505 M . . . . . 19%
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 M . . . . . 0% . . . . . 31 M . . . . . . 1% . . . . 56 M . . . . . . . 2%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,316 M . . . . . . . . . . . 3,193 M . . . . . . . . . . 2,640 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 27 Feb 2018
This data may be freely used and repeated
So the smartphone installed base is at 3.3 Billion devices globally. Four out of five smartphones globally now run on Android, one in five runs on iOS. Out of the app store reach, pure Android OS that can access Play Store now number 1.8 Billion devices which is 3 times the reach of iPhones that can access Apple's App Store. Out of all Android compatible devices, one third are forked AOSP devices, two thirds are 'pure' Android. Again with these numbers, remember these are only the smartphone reach. Tablets and other devices are excluded from both sides. Yes, once again only the CDB blog gives you the installed base race, not just the new sales. This is the relevant table obviously if you're any kind of developer.
Q4 NUMBERS
And last but not least, here is the final calendar quarter of the year, Q4 numbers. New sales. By Manufacturer.
BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2017
Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2017
1 (3) . . . Apple . . . . . . . 77.3 M . . 19.1% . . . . . . . ( 12.2% )
2 (1) . . . Samsung . . . . 74.2 M . . 18.4% . . . . . . . ( 21.8% )
3 (2) . . . BBK * . . . . . . . 56.7 M . . 14.0% . . . . . . . ( 16.4% )
4 (4) . . . Huawei . . . . . . 41.6 M . . 10.3% . . . . . . . ( 10.2% )
5 (5) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . 28.0 M . . . 6.9% . . . . . . . ( 7.3% )
6 (6) . . . ZTE ** . . . . . . . 16.6 M . . . 4.1% . . . . . . . ( 4.3% )
7 (7) . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 13.7 M . . . 3.6% . . . . . . . ( 3.6% )
8 (8) . . . Lenovo *** . . . . 12.5 M . . . 3.1% . . . . . . . ( 3.3% )
9 (9) . . . Gionee . . . . . . .10.1 M . . . 2.5% . . . . . . . ( 2.6% )
10 (-) . . Coolpad . . . . . . . 5.4 M . . . 1.3% . . . . . . . ( - - - )
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.7 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403.8 M
* BBK includes Oppo, Vivo, Oneplus; ** ZTE includes Nubia; *** Lenovo includes Motorola
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting 27 Feb 2018
This data may be freely used and repeated
So that is the race in the latest quarter and once again the CDB blog is the only source that gives you a current Top 10. What is worth mentioning? Remember the iPhone annual sales pattern. There is no sudden surge by Apple. Samsung is SAFELY the largest smartphone maker (Annually) but for every year, the Christmas sales cycle produces the best quarter for Apple. Their share now declines in the next 3 quarters as it has done every year. I'm now adding Vivo, Oppo and the other BBK brands into the BBK manufacturer ranking. That brings Coolpad back into the Top 10. Note the sales level that gets you into the Top 10. It takes about 5.5 million smartphone sales. Our old pal Sony are at 4.0 million. TCL/Alcatel/Blackberry/Palm etc is at 4.2 million. And ahead of both... is the rapidly returning Nokia, via HMD, which is at roughly 4.4 million units by my estimate. They are going to make a run for a Top 10 position this year, and could breach the Top 10 ranking as early as by late summer data and hopefully by Christmas Quarter at least.
PS thanks to reader Gustavo Vera correcting me on the current status of the (ex) GM car brands... and Per "wertigon" Ekström for noticing the Q4 ranking error (numbers were correct but ranking order was wrong). I always appreciate the help of our readers. :-)
We have the first published report of Nokia HMD smartphone global sales, via Nokiamob website and the stats are reported by Counterpoint. They find Nokia HMD smartphones to have 1.0% market share at 4.15M units for Q4, worldwide.
UPDATE 14 FEB 2018 - Counterpoint the analyst has revised their Nokia HMD number from 4.15M to 4.4M units as per this story at Gadgets 360. I have updated the math based on the 4.4M story. The original article from Feb 3, had 4.15M as the Nokia number.
That gives us a good number to get the full year sales of the first year come-back for Nokia brand into smartphones. This is what we have, via IDC and Counterpoint numbers that have been published:
Nokia HMD Smartphone Sales By Quarter in Year 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million
Q2 . . . 1.4 million
Q3 . . . 2.8 million
Q4 . . . 4.4 million
Total . . 8.7 million smartphones shipped in 2017
Sources: Published numbers via IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 14 Feb 2018
This table may be freely shared
I want to thank two readers. My Twitter follower Stipe Hrzic aka @stipe1906 who tweeted about the story. And then also thanks to blog reader 'Sonan', who observed that Sony just sold 4.0 million smartphones and speculated, Nokia HMD may have already passed Sony for global smartphone sales. Thanks Sonan. It certainly seems like that has already happened in Q4.
Nokia HMD is at 1.0% market share globally. The level to return to Top 10 is roughly twice that, from about 2 percent market share. Nokia HMD has been growing at about 1.5 million units more sales per quarter for two quarters (with slight growth) and was adding more countries and networks still in Q4 of last year. We should see some more growth organically just with more distribution added. Then the heavier lifting will start. Some of the fans of Nokias had gotten their first phones back, and that excitement will subside. The sales reverts to more traditional sales and marketing issues. Need to invest in more marketing and especially get carriers/operators to support the Nokia HMD comeback. We may well see a slowing down of the growth rate now, after the first year of excitement. But for Nokia HMD to already pass Sony, that must be good news.
Now when will they pass 10 million units shipped? The current run rate is 1.5 million phones per month (4.4 million per quarter) and by that rate, sometime just about now, first week of February Nokia HMD will probably have passed their 10 millionth smartphone shipped, in their come-back. If so, we could expect Nokia HMD to celebrate that milestone at say Barcelona in a few weeks.
This was one analyst giving a Nokia HMD number. We may get others. Let's see how that goes. But there IS a serious come-back going on. Already now. Nokia is at 1% of global smartphone market and growing. I told you last year that 1% by the end of the year was well within their cards. And if so, then 2% by the end of this year, 2018, would be also plausible. And THAT would be on the brink of returning to the Top 10. We may see Nokia back as a brand in the big smartphone wars in about a year from now, if these early growth trends continue. That would be amazing!
UPDATE 14 FEB 2018 - So the same article with the updated Counterpoint number, gave also other details. They count Nokia current global market share at 1.0% and the rank of Nokia brand among Top 10 smartphones as number 11. Meanwhile another analyst, Trendforce, has counted 11.5 Million as the final Nokia HMD smartphone number for year 2017 (significantly more than my count of 8.7M), and they also have Nokia currently at 1.0% market share, but Trendforce has given their projection that they expect Nokia to be at about 20 million smartphones sold this year 2018. Good signs...
I will still wait, in case any other analysts report any Nokia numbers. When we have all data in, I'll do a forecast for this year.
Apple results are out (yes, world's most profitable company. This blog is NOT about profits or wall street stock performance). So how did Apple iPhone do in the smartphone wars? Lost another point of market share last year. That is what it did. Apple sales 77.3 million units in calendar Quarter 4 ie October-December Quarter. That is down 1% vs the same quarter last year (while the industry grew 5%). Currently Apple has its best moment of the year as the new phone models came out, and only manages 17% quarterly market share (previous years the Christmas Quarter had done better than 21% even). This is down from 18% market share this same quarter a year ago.
For full year numbers, Apple just barely inched better sales than the year before. It was up by 400,000 units from 215.4M to 215.8M but that IS growth, technically. In reality it is less than half of one percent - so it is flat vs year before. Don't kid yourself. Apple annual sales were flat. And considering its headwinds this past year, that is doing pretty well, all things considered. But market share, that is a different story. Apple annual market share lost another point and is now at 14%.
For the record, the Top 5 smartphone manufacturing companies globally for the year 2017 are:
1 Samsung about 320 million units and 21% market share
2 BBK (=Vivo, Oppo & OnePlus brands, from China) about 250 million units, 16% market share
3 Apple, 216 million units, 14% market share
4 Huawei, 153 million units, 10% market share
5 Xiaomi, about 90-95 million units, 6% market share
And for Apple watchers, at one point Apple did 20% of all smartphones sold. The last three years? 16%, 15% and now 14%. I think we see the trend, eh?
And obviously, it means that currently iOS only sells 14% of all new smartphones, constantly dropping in share, as Android is at 86% of new sales.
Separately, that 77.3M gives us an intriguing wait for the estimates of Samsung's final Q4 number. I have it roughly estimated at 77.0M. And obviously if I happened to hit that number, then Apple would be larger than Samsung for the Q4 quarter (but obviously not for the full year). This means that the shortly-announced Q4 numbers from the major analyst houses will be an interesting news cycle. Some may be tempted to slightly push Samsung estimates down, to get Apple above Sammy, to get a good news story. And I'm not suggesting any reputable analyst house would do that. It may very well be, that Apple did beat Samsung in the Christmas sales period. Now, if I was Samsung, AND if my number was above 77.3M, I would come out with my official number. Samsung very very rarely release any official or semi-official counts of their phone business. BUT obviously if Samsung is below 77.3, then they'd just continue their normal policy of not releasing the number. Some intrigue there. Lets see how the big analyst houses count Sammy and take that average, and see who won the Christmas sales period last year. It will be nail-bitingly close...
Ok. Remember in the comments, no discussion about Apple's obscene levels of profits, yes they are the most profitable company of all time. This blog is not a Wall Street investment blog. We are interested in the tech platforms and whatever hope some silly analysts had, of Apple somehow winning the platform wars, that myth was busted years ago. Apple's iOS is a niche OS platform for rich customers mostly in the Western and Industrialized countries. Android is the only smartphone platform of global and almost universal reach.
I'm waiting for the final numbers to come out, so we can do the full year 2017 smartphone numbers and the numbers for Q4. Before we have our final numbers, a lot of individual news stories are expected.
First, expect the story that 'Apple sells more than Samsung' smartphones. This is the Q4 measurement (calendar Quarter, so October-to-December, not fiscal quarter) and it looks like Apple will have outsold Sammy in Q4. That does NOT mean that Apple is in any way ahead in the race. On the contrary, Apple is FALLING FURTHER BEHIND Samsung. How can that be? It is the LAUNCH CYCLE for Apple's new model. Every Christmas Apple has its best quarter, then does ever worse the next three quarters. So the real measure is the FULL YEAR sales. For full year sales, Samsung held even in market share at 21%, while Apple is far behind, at 14% and Apple yes, fell one point in market share from 15% in 2016. So the gap between Samsung and Apple is INCREASING, Apple is FALLING FURTHER behind. But that is reality. Expect many silly business & tech writers, in the USA in particular, to fall for the story, that Apple is ahead of Samsung. Any honest reporting will tell readers that for full year sales, Samsung is safely ahead of Apple. Any 'fake news' reporting will only talk about Q4 numbers and leave the reader with the impression that Samsung has fallen.
Secondly, learn about the smartphone manufacturer company from China called BBK. We know that company for its smartphone brands Vivo, Oppo & OnePlus. I have counted those brands separately into our Top 10 in the past, but that is not fair, as we count Motorola brand sales into Lenovo sales, etc, so as a manufacturer, yes, BBK has to be counted where its individual brands are added together. A year ago, using that method, BBK was the world's third largest smartphone maker in year 2016, behind Apple and ahead of Huawei. Now, for 2017, BBK has passed Apple. There will be a separate story, that Apple has FALLEN TO THIRD.
So simultaneously we will hear stories that Apple is larger than Samsung, and that Apple has fallen from second rank to third rank in the smartphone races. Haha. And both are technically true statements.
But yes, expect to learn a lot more about BBK. And yes, it is the world's second-largest smartphone manufacturing conglomerate, behind only Samsung and ahead of Apple, Huawei, LG, Xiaomi and the others that we so much love to follow on this blog. And if you want to know more about who is this BBK and how did they 'suddenly' appear onto the scene, here is a great synopsis of the company, its founder and the history from DVD players and videogaming consoles to smartphones today, via Android Authority. Very good (and short) read.
Now on the individual brand races, where is the race? Samsung is flat for the year, keeping its 21% from the year before. Far above Apple who falls from 15% to 14% this past year. And who is rushing up to fight against Apple brand? It is Huawei, who again added a point of market share, and now globally sells 10% of all smartphones (vs 9% a year ago). Apple has lost one point every year last 3 years, while Huawei has gained a point each of the last 3 years. This trends suggests that next year (2019) we will see the iPhone at 12% and Huawei at 12% and the two big global smartphone makers will be literally neck-to-neck. By year 2020 Huawei will have passed Apple.
(and behind those two brands, we find the 3 BBK brands, Vivo, Oppo and OnePlus, of course, who combined are larger than either Apple or Huawei. And this year, BBK will start to approach Samsung for the title of top dog...)
Now a mathematical curiosity. It looks like we have a perfect symmetry in the top 3 (brand) race in smarthphones globally (annual numbers, of course). Samsung is 45% larger than number 2, Apple. And Apple is 45% larger than number 3 (Huawei). Haha .Nice symmetry there. But that won't last long. Samsung is holding steady at 21% market share. Apple is bleeding market share one point per year, and Huawei is catching up to Apple one point per year in market share. So in one year it will be more like Samsung ahead of Apple by 56% and Apple ahead of Huawei only by 21%.
BTW of the top 3 brands, we know Samsung's rough semi-official full year number, it is 320 million total smartphones sold (plus another 40 million dumbphones). And for Huawei, we know their official full year 2017 number at 153 million. Apple will end up somewhere near 220 million, maybe a bit under. BBK will be well above 250 million across their three brands.
Then in milestones to come. MASSIVE number is upon us, this Spring. I have Samsung cumulative shipments of smartphones lifetime at 1.9 Billion. We're passing 2.0 Billion cumulative Samsung brand smartphones shipped, sometime this Spring, probably this first quarter. I hope Samsung celebrates that 2 Billionth smartphone in some way. (for comparison, Apple at 1.3 Billion cumulative iPhones since 2007, Nokia next at 600 million smartphones lifetime, and Huawei is next, past 500 million already)
Meanwhile in the kiddie table. Where is Nokia's comeback? I am hoping some analysts will give some numbers on Nokia. For the full year they are well below half a percent as they only started to sell their smartphones to a broad market in the summer. But for Q4, they may well be above 1% market share already. I'd love to see some analyst quote a Nokia HMD smartphone unit count number so we'll have some visibility to that scale. I was expecting Nokia HMD to sell about 5.4 million. Hopefully we'll see some numbers too about that. Ok, with all that, lets await the various numbers.
If you remember my famous forecast from year 2010, that if Moore’s Law holds, then someone can clone any superphone of year 2010, and match those specs by year 2020, for the cost of $10. Superphones of year 2010 included the original iPhone 4, Samsung Galaxy, Nokia N8, Blackberry’s Bold, etc. And a superphone back then cost $600 without handset subsidy (ie clean, without contract). Excepting for local taxes and import duties, that price was also pretty well ‘universal’ globally. In year 2010, you’d be expected to pay $600 for a top-line smartphone by a major brand.
To be clear, right from the start, I emphasized, that Apple will not sell us a $10 iPhone in year 2020. I said it would be a clone-phone-maker, probably running Android or possibly one of the low-cost smartphone OS systems that were then in development. But 8 years ago, in year 2010, if you went into a mobile phone shop anywhere, and picked the top model, you’d get roughly the same specs, which were:
3G
Smartphone
Touch Screen
3.5 inch size screen
WiFi
Camera of 5mp
With LED flash
GPS
That was my spec list. If you did that phone today, you are essentially matching an iPhone 4 from year 2010. And that phone was considered a ‘superphone’ back then. A powerful internet-phone on both 3G and WiFi, a ‘real’ camera that was able to capture reasonably good images. A flash that let you take pictures in the dark. GPS for mapping. And yes, touch-screen obviously. And back in year 2010, a phone screen of 3.5 inches was considered ‘massive’ in its size. Today it is considered ‘tiny’.
MOORE’S LAW
So I applied Moore’s Law to the tech specs of the iPhone 4, in year 2010. And that law said that computer processing power doubles every 18 months. The corollary to Moore’s Law is that the same performance computer tech will cost half, in 18 months. And then I just ran 18-month cycles and cut the price of the ‘iPhone clone’ into half every 18 months.
This said that the price pattern for a new smartphone, matching 2010 flagship smartphones by spec, which cost $600 in year 2010, should cost as follows:
Summer 2010: cost $600 (starting point)
Winter 2011: cost $300 (was achieved)
Summer 2013: cost $150 (was achieved)
Winter 2014: cost $75 (was achieved)
Summer 2016: cost $38 (was achieved)
Winter 2017: cost $19 (is now due)
Summer 2019: cost $10
And based on this pattern, I boldly forecasted a $10 dollar price for a new smartphone, when sold in year 2020, that (roughly) matched the specs of what once was a superphone, in year 2010. Fair enough. And nicely, this gave us milestones, to see how this forecast was doing. I showed this slide since 2010, with always the latest period highlighted, as we followed how this forecast was turning out:
That forecast held through 2011, 2013, 2014, and even up to Summer 2016. I was able to find a new smartphone in the summer of 2016, that matched (or exceeded) the specs required, in India, for the local price of 2,443 India Rupees which was $36 US dollars. We were 2 dollars BELOW the target price for the forecast. The forecast looked good.
FORECAST NO LONGER HOLDS
Now I have some bad news. The forecast no longer holds. I have searched a dozen countries and phones of hundreds of brands, and cannot find a smartphone that matches those specs, at a price around $19. The nearest I’ve gotten is again in India. A smartphone by the name of Microkey, model E12, (new phone from Nov 2017) is nearly the specs we want. 4.5 inch (larger than required) touch screen Android smartphone, 8 mp camera (better), with LED flash, 3G and WiFi. But this phone does not have GPS. And it is available locally for $1,799 India Rupees. That is $28 dollars, not $19. We have now failed to match the predicted price path. We are 50% above where it should be.
This means, first off, that it is nearly certain, that by year 2020, we will not see anyone (yet) selling a new smartphone that matches the 2010 iPhone 4 in specs, and costing only $10. It looks like we’ll fall short from that amazing price point, BUT we ARE on track for a smartphone year 2020, that costs about $20. And considering the collapse in price from $600, then whether it is $20 or $10 doesn’t really matter. We will have achieved a computer into essentially every pocket, even in the Emerging World.
Note, that the price decline now is proceeding at a slower rate than it has been before. Part of that is the inevitable end to Moore’s Law which some say is upon us, others say will shortly arrive. But in this case, new smartphones costing under $30, we do have the issue of the non-digital elements to the cost of a phone. The plastic casing for the phone is not experiencing a Moore’s Law. Plastic does not become cheaper by half every 18 months. Similarly the battery. Batteries are getting cheaper but nowhere near as fast as Moore’s Law is lowering costs of computing. Also labor costs do not fall by Moore’s Law. The shipping and marketing costs do not fall by the rate of Moore’s Law. So the final non-subsidised non-contract price of a new smartphone model right now, if the bottom end is at $28, only a small part of that price is the electronics of the ‘smart’ and ‘phone’ part. The other elements that do not live by Moore’s Law are now a far larger proportion of this cheap smartphone, than were parts of the original iPhone 4 back in year 2010.
NEW PRICE PREDICTION FOR NEXT 5 YEARS
It WAS a wild ride, for 6 years. We DID match, exactly the predicted price path, up to the summer of 2016. Now that ride has ended. Smartphones are STILL becoming cheaper, but now the price shrinks more slowly. It literally was cut in half every 18 months since 2010, now it seems to be cut by one quarter, every 18 months (ie the price drop rate has fallen into half). This suggests, that going forward, we could expect this type of price pattern at the very lowest end of smartphone prices:
2017 Winter cheapest new smartphone $28
2019 Summer cheapest new smartphone $21
2020 Winter cheapest new smartphone $16
2022 Summer cheapest new smartphone $12
2023 Winter cheapest new smartphone $9
We should prepare for this pattern and now it is likely in year 2020 we won’t find $10 clones of the 2010 iPhone (by tech specs) and instead, that year we’ll find the first phone at $20, roughly matching the specs of our 2010 iPhone. And if this slower rate of price drop continues, then expect the first new $10 smartphone to be upon us around year 2023.
PS obviously we ignore the nonsense fake phone deals that never materialized. Secondly, these will not be ‘as good’ smartphones as what the original iPhone 4 or Nokia N8 or Blackberry Bold etc were in year 2010. The cheap clone ‘superphone’ will be very cheap plastic and may have all sorts of quality etc issues. But I am not considering discounted old models sold at prices to get rid of inventory. I mean it has to be a new model that year, that is sold at a fair price in its market. And while we won’t see the $10 smartphone yet in year 2020 we seem to be getting gosh-darned close to that, at $20. And that the $10 smartphone is likely postponed to year 2023. Still, only 5 years from now....
Even when a precise forecast isn’t coming perfectly to form, I am so happy to be able to revisit old forecasts to see how they are doing. And this one, once again, was a remarkably useful forecast in year 2010, when there were no smartphones really below the $200 level. To be able to give guidance to the industry, that prepare - in a decade, smartphones will cost a tiny fraction of what they were costing back then...
So for the record. I am now shifting my forecast. No $10 iPhone-clones in year 2020 (yet) but the new target is $20. And the $10 iPhone-clone is likely to arrive around year 2023.
So we're monitoring the Nokia HMD comeback. Hopefully this period (next 7 weeks or so) will bring more numbers. But ONE country has already released national market share numbers that are VERY positive for HMD Nokia's first reasonably-complete quarter of a portfolio of smartphone sales. It is Taiwan. A rich Asian country, of only about 20 million total population (half the size of South Korea or Malaysia for example) but still - that is almost as much population as Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark - combined.
What is the verdict? Taiwan domestic December (one month only) market share has Apple first, Samsung second, Asustek third and... in seventh ranking is HMD Nokia with 3.2% market share. This is VERY VERY good news for Nokia/HMD smartphone comeback story. It is so far the only December number we have. But if Nokia and HMD can get near 3% in many Asian countries and many rich world countries in some ways similar to Taiwan - then Nokia HMD could be around 3% for December, then or perhaps closer to 2% for the full Quarter in market share across all such countries. If so... Nokia could well be somewhere near 2% global market share (as its BRAND is far stronger in the Emerging World markets which are not very similar to Taiwan, like say Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil and etc).
BTW there is gossip that Nokia HMD might innovate in cameraphones again. A 'penta lens' camera setup may be shown at Barcelona, and may be released for late 2018 into the market (possibly for Christmas sales period of this year 2018). Lets see.
Meanwhile, GREAT news HMD !!! Great news Nokia !!! We hope for MANY more markets where your first full quarter of a significant portfolio of smartphones, gets you to around 2% market share... gosh that is good news.
(NOTE an early version of this article mistakenly said fourth quarter, when the data was only for the month of December)
UPDATE MONDAY
The shutdown is already over (lasted only 3 days). My blog was written on the premise of the recent pattern of prolonged shutdowns. I did write in the blog, that if the Republicans are smart, they will end this shutdown immediately, as it was THEIR mistake. And they did. The shutdown is over. Note that my analysis was assuming a long drama. As it is over, no real sense in reading that long article 'of what might have been'. I will leave it of course here onto the blog, if anyone is interested in that analysis but the drama is over. I'd call it a draw. It depends on the aftermath, if there is some marginal gain or loss on either side. I'll return with more politics later when relevant, and continue now with tech/mobile/media items for the time being. You can read the full article below:
After the election I felt it inappropriate to continue my snide remarks and ridiculing of Trump because he had won, fair and square, and had not even taken office. I wanted to give him a fair shake and the benefit of the doubt. It was theoretically possible that Trump would be a good or efficent President, and that maybe his election politics ‘persona’ was just weird. I don’t care if the President has infidelities (Bill Clinton) or speaks weirdly (Daddy Bush) or can’t pronounce ‘nuclear’ (W Bush), or is of different color than me (Obama) it is the results of the Presidency that count. So I wanted to give Trump a chance. The President’s term in the USA is 4 years, so now we have exactly the 1 year anniversary of his term (he started in January, not election day in November) and we have a record. One quarter of his time is done (of the first term, he could win re-election and get a second 4 years of course). And boy has this been a circus, even more wild than the election.
I am not going to comment on everything about what he did in his first year. Because we have just witnessed something spectacularly weird. A massive colossal political blunder by the (still learning to be the Great) Blunderer-in-Chief. Anything else Trump has messed up (or achieved) in the past 12 months pales with what just happened now, into this weekend. So as this is the 1 year anniversary, this is the perfect microcosm, the ‘case study’ and benchmark for Trump’s Presidency. In particular because this will have ENORMOUS repercussions into the next 2 election cycles (Mid Term elections in 2018, and Trump’s re-election in 2020).
THE SHUTDOWN
So on Friday, the US government was shut down. Let me first state categorically, the SHUTDOWN ITSELF will not be a big factor in 2020 in Trump’s chances of re-election. The shutdown will not even matter much in the Midterms of this year. Yes, it will matter on the fringes, but other things matter much more, like healthcare, immigration, defense, etc. When I say ‘enormous repercussions’ I do not mean that this act of shutting down - the memory of it ‘the shutdown’ will matter much even now in November 2018. What I do mean, is that the AFTERSHOCKS from what now was done, are truly seismic. It is like the earthquake under the ocean. It may shake some island 200 miles away, but not do much damage. Not until the tsunami wave RESULT from the earthquake starts to form, and wipe out a nuclear powerplant in Japan, etc... THAT is what just happened. We had that soon-forgotten earthquake under the ocean. That is what the shutdown is (will be remembered as). What I am foreseeing is the tsunami that follows. This is a perfect metaphor for the Trump Presidency and how it destroyed itself, and much of the Republican party, and most of the Tea Party, and much of Right Wing media, all in the process.
What is a shutdown? The US government (like any government) runs on a budget. The US system has clearly defined roles of who does what. The Congress passes a budget (both the House and the Senate have to agree to that, and there often are tough negotiations between these two bodies, especially if one party controls one and the rival party the other). And then the President has to sign it. The actual procedure is for the President to draft the budget, with help from Congress, and sends it to Congress to be approved. But if the President faces a Congress where both chambers are held by the other party, then often Congress does it’s own budget and sends that to the President. And we get then the tough negotiations - will he sign it or ‘veto’ it by not signing it and Congress then has to rewrite it (to remove whatever the President didn’t want). And obviously at these moments, is where the shutdown looms large. If there is no budget, the government is shut down. Government offices are closed. You can’t get a passport. Government building projets are paused. Almost all government employees are sent home. Soldiers cannot stop their work - but get this - they won’t be paid. It is a huge mess, obviously. The last shutdown that the Republicans arranged in 2013 cost about 20 Billion dollars and caused the national economy to lose about one half of one percent in GDP. A huge cost.
To understand how enormous that amount is. The US Navy operates a dozen nuclear powered aircraft carriers. They cannot AFFORD to operate more. The ‘war hawk’ wing of the Republicans keep insisting that the US military is too weak. One way the US could increase its military is by a larger navy. The 20 Billion dollars that the GOP threw into a garbage can and burned to no gain, simply wasted taxpayer money in 2013, that 20 Billion dollars would have paid for TWO of the latest Gerald Ford class nuclear powered aircraft carriers. To put it another way. Army. The US main battle tank is the A1 Abrams. It cost $6 Million a piece. The 20 Billion dollars would get you 3,333 tanks. How relevant is that? The TOTAL inventory of US Army tanks is 6,000. So yeah. Republican Congress loonies who ‘want a strong military!’ then took the money to by three thousand tanks, and burned it. They could have grown US military’s tank supply by 50% with that money. But now. The Tea Party wanted a shutdown.
A shutdown is a massively expensive and hideously stupid thing to do. And shutting down the government is hated by vast majority of US population (but it is beloved by the Tea Party, those nutters who thought Sarah Palin was a genius. Well, perhaps she was the prototype ‘Stable’ sort of genius).
But again, remember, the shutdown will not be ‘the election argument’. I am just explaining ‘the earthquake’ that then produces a tsunami, that wipes out a nuclear powerplant...
Currently TV talking heads and pundits will be debating ‘who is at fault’ for causing this shutdown. That is a lot of heat and very little light. I can tell you how it will be judged. A bit of fault on both sides. Some will say, roughly even steven. Most Republicans will blame Democrats but some Republicans will know that Trump did this. Of those Republicans who understand the truth, some will take the ‘both sides are at fault’ ploy. Some will be honest. Others will take the purely political stance and blame the other side, because they are fighting a propaganda war, not caring about the truth. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, most know this time this was all GOP, especially the President. Some will fairly think, both sides have some blame. Some will admit that technically, due to Senate vote rules, this was also yes, brought to a close by Democrats although because the Republicans lost 9 votes of their OWN in the shut-down vote, the reality even of that math is, that Repulicans created this shutdown. And of the independents in the middle - they remember last time GOP wanted the shutdown and got it. That Trump and the Tea Party wing have been wishing for shutdowns, and that Trump had a deal in his hand, that he rejected, which would have prevented this shutdown. The VAST majority of independents will blame the Republicans and Trump for this shutdown.
How does it split? About two-to-one split blame Republicans by latest polling, before the shutdown. The nation knows this is the Republicans who are playing with fire. But most loyal Republicans will be blaming Democrats. So while you will hear a lot of pundits on this, the general noise will likely be across all media, about 60/40 in the blame game, a little bit blaming more the Republicans than the Democrats. If you want to read a good sampling of the LEADERSHIP views from both sides and by neutrals, in the typically fair ‘all sides’ coverage of the immediate aftermath of the start of the shutdown, at Politico. This is a good read. But in the end, you’ll see what I just summarized. A bit on both sides, a lot of partisan finger-pointing, but a fair reading is 60/40 more caused by Republicans than Democrats, and the single biggest cause of the shutdown is of course Trump himself.
Is it not good to shut down the government? No. If you don’t see that, please go back to school and do not post comments here. Anyone who can’t see, that the bridge that was under construction, but suddenly the government interrupts its construction - and won’t pay - will make the SAME BRIDGE more expensive. it has to be built anyway. But now after the shutdown - ALL THE WORK for that bridge STILL HAS TO BE FINISHED. there is nothing that becomes CHEAPER this way. BUT there are MANY MORE EXPENSES NOW to get that project BACK to work. So it becomes MORE EXPENSIVE to finish that same bridge. Most of government work is like that. The passport that gets delayed by the shutdown? STILL has to be processed, issued and manufactured. Etc. This is just absolutely batshit crazy stuff which the desperate side will resort to, as a last resort, when the political situation in Washington has gone into breakdown mode. When the two sides are at so poisoned relations that they cannot get along.
"When both sides..".
Yes, when both sides. So this is a situation that ONLY happens when one party controls the Presidency, and the other party controls one of the chambers (or both) of Congress. It is a sign of total utter sheer incompetence, if one party holds ALL elements of political power, and somehow shuts ITSELF down...
To understand how utterly totally bizarre and ridiculous THIS shutdown is, you have to understand what a shutdown is. A shutdown is an ultimatum, a desperate boycott move. We will not give money for government (or President: I will not sign this budget) and we will be willing to take the enormous political penalty for doing this, because of the political extremism. This has NEVER happened with one party holding the White House, the Senate AND the House. This is ludicrous! This is the Republican Senate, the Republican Congress and the Republican House, feuding so badly among each other - that they shut down THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT ???????
Again. Historically, this has never happened. It is bewilderingly weird. And the timing. Government shutdowns tend to come towards the end of a Presidency, not the beginning. It is a sign of the individual President’s power declining. As Donald Trump himself said, a shutdown is a sign of a weak President. The shutdowns tend to come in the second term of a two-term Presidency, again when the Presidential power has declined a lot from its peak early in the first term. There has never been a shutdown in the first year. Good job President Trump, you’re a record-setting President. And by ‘good’ job, that is special MAGA speech similar to how ‘Mexico will pay’ is translated into normal English as we have to rob American children’s school lunch money (literally) to pay for Trump’s wall. Oh, Mexico pays for it!
(Are you already saying, I missed Tomi’s analysis?)
So to be clear. When one party controls the White House, the Senate and the House, then there is no problem possible. They pass a budget and ram almost anything on their agenda into law (can you spell Obamacare?). This is what Obama and the Democrats did in 2008. This is what W Bush and Cheney did in 2000. The shutdown only becomes a tactic when the OTHER party gains some power. So the Republicans if Trump was the slightest teeny-weeny bit the genius he thinks he is, should have a budget and run their own agenda. Except they haven’t even PRODUCED a budget!!! They are running the country on ‘continuing resolutions’ (CRs) from month to month. It was the latest CR that became victim of the shutdown. This whole situation has NEVER existed before when one party held all 3 power in Washington DC.
THE DEAL
So how did we get to the shutdown? There was a deal on immigration. Trump had met with Senators from the Democrats and Republicans. He wanted a deal. He (Trump) said he can accept a deal that helps some undocumented immigrants, if the deal includes some payment to the Wall he wants (that obviously now Mexico is not paying - Trump wants the US Congress to pay for the massively expensive and mostly pointless but ugly wall, with US taxpayer money). And Trump said, he will sign whatever deal the Senators bring to him. This was well documented and reported at the time.
Then the Senators went and did a deal that included DACA (tech mumbo jumbo) and helped immigrants and paid for a (very small) part (under 10%) of the Wall, and brought this to Trump to sign. If Trump had kept his word, we would have no shutdown today.
So first, understand what this means in negotiations. Trump said, go make your deal and I will sign it. He let HIS party bosses in the Senate, negotiate with the Democrats in the Senate and come up with a deal. And they did. And when Trump saw it, he said, I’m not signing that!
He would have gotten his Wall. Not the whole Wall, but a start to it. It would not have been paid for by Mexico but that was never going to happen. The con artist would have successfully have swindled the US electorate, first promising it won’t cost a penny ‘because Mexico will pay’ and now the Democrats were willing to let it be paid with US taxpayer dollars instead. For Democrats that is an intensely bitter pill, go into a nasty compromise (for them) to give the Trumpster at least a tiny corner of his Wall, so the Democrats could protect their own interests, in this case children of immigrants who came here illegally, and those children were too small to even know their parents did anything wrong. Those kids are all Americans for all intents and purposes, it would be utterly cruel to deport them (as some on the Tea Party edge of the Republican party - but not all in the Republican party) want to do.
In the 2018 elections (mid term, Congress) the issue of IMMIGRATION will be big, the issue of ‘shutdown’ will be long forgotten and occasionally mentioned. The Wall may be a topic, maybe not. So again, we are first understanding the earthquake that happened under the sea, before we get to the tsunami, that will damage our nuclear powerplant.
Let me comment on duschbag Trump as negotiator. He did this his whole life. No sane successful sensible businessman ever does business with Trump twice. All US banks have put Trump on a blacklist (will never loan another penny to him). It is not just that businessmen won’t deal with Trump, this is far more important in politics. Especially in the Senate, who have 6 year terms (vs Congress, where they have 2 year terms, and are essentially running for re-election since they start to work). A Senator is not a ‘businessman’. He does not offer anything ‘concrete’ to a negotiation. He cannot promise tha this factory in China manufactures these smartphones for this price, that Apple can put an Apple logo on it, and call it an iPhone. No, a Senator ONLY has his word. Nothing more. Then he either stands by it, or doesn’t. I do not mean ‘election promises’ haha. I mean deals in the Senate. Once you agree to a deal, you’re in, or you need a really good valid ‘excuse’ to get out. But to pull the sleazebag used-car-salesman trick, that changes the price when you come back - THAT is Trump. He just lost whatever remaining political power he had in Congress. He told Senators he’d let them work out the deal, and he will sign it. And he didn’t. He just lost ‘bigly’.
This is the beginning of the end to Trump. But he doesn’t know it.
Chuck Schumer will be the counterpart to Trump in resolving this shutdown. Schumer is the leader of the Democrats in the Senate. Because they need 60 votes in the Senate to pass whatever compromise is negotiated to end the shutdown, and the Republicans only have 51 votes on their side, they need a minimum of 9 Democrats to join (Sen McCain, illness, blah blah, lets not get into the political weeds). Even if Trump gets the House (Paul Ryan) and Republicans in the Senate (Mitch McConnell, the turtle-looking guy), he can’t now end this shutdown. Chuck Schumer holds the power. Can you imagine how moronic a political move Trump did, by making himself and his party now the hostage to Schumer's will? And Trump keeps annoying Schumer... Schumer holds the cards. He can say yes, he can say no. Note, ALSO McConnell and Ryan can do the same, but that is not - or should not be - the argument now. They SHOULD be in agreement with THEIR President. This shutdown will be resolved by a handshake by Trump and Schumer. And Schumer knows this. I am not sure if Trump really understands this (yet, but he will, soon).
And Schumer was just burned by Trump. Schumer was part of the negotiations that led to ‘the deal’. So he was slapped in his face, when Trump then didn’t take the deal, that he had worked hard (with other Democrats, and equally much work by Republicans in Senate).
It is possible that Trump holds all the cards. That he can ‘win’ with this shutdown. That Schumer has to come to Trump and grovel and beg, and accept a LESSER deal than what Schumer had the first time. This is the weird delusion inside Trump’s head. Many on Fox and the various right wing reality denial zone believe in this childish fantasy.
The reality is, that Schumer holds all the cards. He can sit this and wait. This shutdown itself will be blamed more on Republicans than Democrats. The longer it runs, the greater the pain, and this INCREASES how much the nation will hate the Republicans for this stunt. This is exceptionally much blamed on Trump. This is politically perfect for the Democrats. The Congress is in disarray (on the Republican side) they cannot enact their neo-Nazi agenda (they don’t even have a budget) and time is running out, as the midterm 2018 seem to suggest a big wave election coming to help the Democrat political cause, and thus stop the ‘monopoly on power’ that Trump now enjoys. Why on earth, would any sane President shut down his own government when he had all the power? Well, maybe this is what they mean with the ‘stable’ level of genius.
My thesis is. That this is a ludicrously bad move by the Republicans and the longer it runs, the worse it will become for them. The only way out, is clearly a new deal between Trump and Schumer. That deal - will be worse for Trump and better for Schumer. I would guess, the new deal is identical to old, except without any money for the Wall. If so, Trump lost MASSIVELY in this gamble. But that is only the beginning (earthquake under sea). Please note, my thesis could be wrong. It is possible that the alternate view held at Fox and various right wing nutter pages, is that Trump and the Tea Party can win out of this. For that to happen, then the new deal between Trump & Schumer has to be one, where Trump gains and Schumer loses. For example Trump getting 20% of his Wall paid instead of under 10%. Then yes, Trump would have ‘won’ in this political gambit. I will have a clear SIMPLE test for us, that determines how it turns out. A fair, three-part, totally independent objective test.
THE TRUMP MIND
So we saw this guy up-close in the campaign (one disaster stumbling into the next). Yet he became President (says A LOT about Hillary Clinton, how she was able to lose to this clown. Hillary warned us many times she was not the great campaigner like her husband. Maybe we should have listened... (and yes, a few or the readers of CDB did warn this writer many times, yes, I remember!!)). The chaos got only worse in the past 12 months. We are learning about it. The Bannon confessions in the book Fire and Fury, that for example up to election night Trump and his team never EXPECTED to win. They had all planned a lucrative after-election-loss life to have great profitable careers to follow. And were utterly stunned to have won.
The preparation was non-existent. The ACTIVITIES during the campaign were self-destructive. Where Obama in 2008 made continuous positive bridge-building gestures to his early rivals DURING the late election, to ensure he had the best Democratic talent available for his cabinet if he were to win, Trump did the opposite. He carried on long feuds even past eleciton day, with various Republican rivals. So we’ve seen the Mickey Mouse club that was the early Trump administration.
Record number of resignations and firings.
Yeah Scandals-R-Us is the current White House. There are so many scandals, we can’t even keep count. The number of investigations is record-breaking (at this stage, remember, this is the first year of his administration) and the independent Mueller investigation looms over the whole Trump entourage.
But consider the PREPARATION. There are two months of time from election day to when the President takes office. That should be done to vet the best possible team to start the new Presidency. What did Trump do? Played golf and sent Tweets. Then the start of his administration? He didn’t know what he was to do, and how to do it. As I said, the Republicans have not even passed a budget. Their first year (of only 2 years they held all power) is already gone. And not even a budget. Good job! Maga!
So now this shutdown. When the LAST shutdown happened, in 2013, caused by the GOP, that was when Obama prepared very well for the shutdown, to make sure as much as possible that the nation was ok, and as much as possible the pain was mitigated. Trump was caught so much unawares, that he had arranged a weekend party in Florida (at Trump’s mansion, with high-prices paid guests) to celebrate his 1 year anniversary as President - and because of the shutdown, he didn’t get to fly his government jet, Air Force One, to Florida, and has to stay in Washington! He was livid. And morose. Now he’s stuck to watching TV replaying clips where Trump says any shutdown is the fault of the President, and only the President can get the shutdown to end. Oh, and previous-Trump also lambasted the shutdown then, for being so bad to the economy etc.
We can imagine how he feels. His mind has the attention span of a gerbil. And he is hypnotically attracted to the news, and obsessed by whichever channel has his face on it. So when all the pundits do the finger-pointing - he can feel ok, seeing partisan bickering, but when they run clips of his own words - that is all kryptonite for the sitting President - himself!!! He has ALL the advice there on TV, with TV Trump saying that this was the President’s fault and the President is weakened by the shutdown and the President has to negotiate to get out of it. And even a ‘stable genius’ like Trump knows, that now when he negotiates with Schumer - he has to give some concessions to Schumer, not the other way around.
Trump will feel he was tricked into this shutdown. He was let to believe, this would be good for him. And every night from now until the end of the shutdown, there will be more bad news about HIS shutdown, with the same Trump quotes played endlessly. Trump will want to lay blame. He can’t accuse Democrats of tricking him into this shutdown. He will find plenty of skapegoats among his own side. Expect poisonous Tweets from Trump as this drags on. Yes, MOST of his vitriol is at Democrats (obviously Obama caused this shutdown) but he will seek someone to blame at his side. He feels he was trapped into this dilemma. And he DOESN’T want to ever see that bastard Schumer again. Trump will postpone any meeting with Schumie like we might postpone the visit to the dentist. So he’ll look for someone to blame. Trump will be ‘interesting’ during this shutdown, mark my words.
What Trump can take easily for long periods is the other side blaming him. He’ll brush that off with ‘losers’. What Trump cannot stand, is his own side blaming him. And worst, is if his popularity polls sink. So for Trump the real motivator to get out of the shutdown is his own popularity sinking. Until/unless that happens, he isn’t in any way motivated to try to compromise with Schumer, far less abandon anything he feels he already gained last time in ‘the deal’.
The CONGRESSIONAL Republicans will feel the pain. Senators more than House members (House members pain depends on their district, some in Tea Party gerrymandered districts will feel no pain). Democrats will almost all feel the pain almost immediately. That is however, something their leadership UNDERSTANDS and knows the politics of it. They are VERY competent to handle a shutdown stare-down. Chuck Schumer in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House. On the Republican side we have Paul Ryan who is smart enough to know this is political suicide for their party (but will do the bidding on laying blame on the Democrats, of course). But he has almost no power because of the revolt brewing in the Tea Party wing. Ryan has no power whatsoever to hold his caucus. And lets not talk about Turtle-face. Senate leader McConnell is in deep shit and utterly above his own mental abilities. McConnell is so incompetent, the Republicans lost NINE GOP SENATOR votes from THEIR side, that would have prevented this shutdown. He is a wimpy limp d(u)ck. This is now a waiting game. The only ones who can resolve this are Schumer and Trump. And Trump has to make concessions. He isn’t quite aware of that fact yet. And his own side is spectacularly inept, at even attempting to help him process the thinking. And his own administraiton is a bunch of loonies, who couldn’t manage to successfully heat a microwave dinner.
So Trump will be remarkably dependent on his family, giving advice, and what he sees on TV talk shows. And that message is reasonably calm now, at the start of the shutdown. The more the real pain of the shutdown starts to come in (this was for the weekend, Monday is the first weekday when the bad news parade properly begins). The news cycles from now on will be increasingly bad for Trump and his shutdown. A critical chance is when some of his fave channels shift their coverage and start to urge Trump to make a deal, and/or start to feature the ‘harm’ coverage of the damage of the shutdown.
OUR OBJECTIVE TEST OF WHO WON
The big motivator for Trump is his popularity. It is at record-low levels for a first year President. Yes, Trump is the most unpopular President in American political history, for as long as political polls have been run, for the first 1 year of any administration. So lets lock this number. We’re using again of course the RCP average (Real Clear Politics, the gold standard of polling aggregation online for US politics). Today Trump’s RCP polling average is at 39.9% approval rate.
If the shutdown causes this to shrink, that urges Trump to move. If his popularity stays flat or even improves, Trump has lots of leverage and would seem immune to damage from the shutdown.
So then what of Congress? Who wins, who loses? The metric is the same. The RCP current average, from polls conducted just before the shutdown. The ‘Congressional generic vote’ poll average has Democrats currently holding a better image than Republicans, at 7.3%. If that moves away from Democrats it is good for Republicans, and vice versa. Note the level. The statisticians estimate, that because of the gerrymandered districts and various other reasons, a 50/50 split in this measure will not result in a split Congress. The Republicans (currently) hold an advantage. And because they have an advantage of 34 seats, the Democrats would need about 8.0% generic polling advantage, to flip the House in November 2018. It is tantalizingly close today (but 10 months is forever in politics, those numbers can go any which way during the interim months).
So we have the test I suggested. If POTUS rating drops below 39.9% then this hurts/hurted Trump. If his rating improves, then clearly he gained. Similarly Congress, the generic vote now strongly favors Democrats. While both sides WILL be blamed this is the perfect measure of who gets MORE blame. How does 7.3% move. If it goes to say 9.4% Democratic advantage, then the Republicans have damaged themselves with this stunt, but if it moves to say +3.2% Democrats, then the GOP would have gained.
Lastly we have the deal. Is the new deal the same deal as Trump initially rejected? If so, it was a stalemate and no gains/no losses politically to either side. If the deal that resolves this shutdown gives more to one side than other, that side ‘won’. I am saying, Trump popularity will be down, the generic ballot shifts more to Democrats and the final deal gives more to DEMs than GOP. This is a classic lose-lose-lose deal for Republicans. It is what a loser President would do. No, I shouldn’t use such language when discussing the US President. I should use a bit more classy, ‘Presidential’ language. Yes this deal is what a shithole President would do. This is the kind of winning Trump was referring to when he said, there would be so much winning, we would be begging for him to stop with the winning. Yeah. Republicans WILL want Trump to stop ‘winning’ this way. The Democrats will laugh all the way to November.
THE TSUNAMI WAVE
Ok. You get my thesis. This is a ‘Republican’ shutdown (some disagree). President Trump will be blamed (some disagree). The political negotiating position for Trump is horrendous and he has to give concessions to Schumer to get out of this mess (not all would agree). But whether my political gut is good on this or bad, we will know soon. This shutdown will end. Likely in a few weeks. And then we can measure, by that 3 point test. And I am confident enough in my forecast, to study the AFTERMATH of THIS shutdown. So YOU can see the signs, and observe the political patterns that emerge. (and sound super smart when you talk about these things assuming the first steps go as I suggest).
So lets see the political impacts of the shutdown. The first is almost invisible but massive and already happening now. It is mind-boggling. I do not see this discussed in the press (some do mention it, nobody makes a big deal about it).
Trump’s strongest election promise, and the Republican party’s calling card, and the favorite of EVERY Republican party candidate at any level, is the theme that they cut taxes, and the other side raises taxes. The Democrats at EVERY level struggle with this regularly. It is a brilliant four-word slogan invented for the Jimmy Carter era (and before) Democrats as a slur by Republicans. It is ‘tax-and-spend Liberals’.
The Republicans celebrate as being the party that always cuts taxes, and gives big tax cuts. It started with the biggest tax cut in history, by Reagan. A record then to be broken by the biggest tax cut in history, by W Bush-Cheney, and that record one would think could never be broken, was just superceded by Trump, with the biggest tax cut in US history. Republicans love giving BIG tax cuts, especially to the rich. And then they blame the Democrats for raising taxes.
This is a conjuring trick. A nasty, smelly Flint Michigan poisoned water degree fraud, that the Republicans have been getting away with.
It is true, that Reagan, W Bush, Trump cut taxes. And they were consecutively the biggest tax cuts in history. Yes. Most of the tax cuts went to the rich. Millionaires. (nice, MAGA!). But there also were tax cuts to the middle class yes. This part is true. In any magic trick some parts are true.
Was this sane economics? No. Each of these tax cuts is (was) a DISASTEROUSLY bad thing to do, economically. EACH of the previous two led to HUGE BUDGET DEFICITS. All of them including this latest by Trump add(ed) MASSIVELY to the national debt.
Consider how unfair it is. If the country has to go into DEBT to pay for the tax cut, it means that your KIDS have to pay for the money you now received ‘as a tax cut’. The money HAS to be paid back. It is a debt. But it is paid WITH INTEREST. It costs MORE to run your country this way, than not go so much into debt. How f*cking unfair is that? And to take money from YOUR kids (and THEIR kids, your grandkids?) to pay for some white old fogies who are MILLIONAIRES anyway? This is ludicrous. As Daddy Bush said of Reagan’s idiotic economic plan, it is ‘Voodoo Economics’. And even Reagan had to raise taxes to partly try to fix the damage he did.
A lot of REPUBLICANS protested this with W Bush-Cheney, the ‘fiscally conservative’ wing who to this day hate W Bush ‘the MBA President’ for being such an economic moron and driving up the nation’s debt to record levels. Now Trump runs that same gambit.
LETS BLAME THE DEMOCRATS!
Here is the diabolical part to this, as a political gambit. The NEXT GUY has to fix it.
So I get to spend to buy my toys (say two wars in the middle east) and the poor sucker who comes after me, has to raise taxes, to pay for this.
THAT is why Daddy Bush and Bill Clinton, after Reagan, had to raise taxes to bring the budget back into balance, by Clinton’s time and start to pay off some of the debt.
THAT is why Obama had to raise taxes after W Bush-Cheney, to pay for the silly spending. And whoever comes after Trump, will have to pay for this lunacy now - it means more taxes. Of course. This is mathematics (something Republicans are increasingly incapable of).
Note the pattern:
Reagan (R) - tax cuts!! (oops, debts are growing)
Clinton (D) - ok, lets raise taxes
W Bush (R) - tax cuts !! (what, the debt is ballooning?)
Obama (D) - ok, lets raise taxes
Trump (R) - TAX CUTS !!!
This is a conjuring trick. The Republican President deliberately over-spends in his term, so that the next sucker Democrat President has less money, and has to raise taxes. THEN the Republicans can on election day blame all Democrats as ‘tax-and-spend Liberals’.
This is a brilliant political tactic and it has worked pretty well for Republicans so far. But you can see, this has run 3 DECADES. And there is only one moment in a President’s career, early in his administration, that he has the power to pull this silly stunt and go wild on the family credit card and ruin the family’s credit rating... The Democrats also see through this but are unable to stop it, until they get back into power in Congress to stop this sillyness. And they know, SOMEONE has to pay for that spending the Republicans ALREADY did. They know the longer they wait, the more it will cost, and they will every time, go through with the tax increases to try to get the budget back in balance.
This is a conjuring trick. It is a total myth that Republicans are fiscally responsible and the Democrats overspend and overtax. The ‘tax-and-spend Liberal’ went extinct in the Democratic party with Walter Mondale’s loss in 1984. Up to that time, it was a fair accusation. Since then, the irresponsible party is the Republican party.
But this trick WORKS (politically). You and I reading this blog can see the lunacy of the tactic, from an economic point of view. It is like if you have maxed out your credit card, rather than start to save, you go get ANOTHER credit card for MORE debt (and immediately with it, you spend all you can, on the NEW card... ). But politically it works, because GOP candidates can fairly point at history - look Reagan, W Bush, Trump: Tax cuts. Look at Democrats, they keep raising your taxes. Don’t vote for the tax-and-spend Liberals !!
MEDIA SATURATION OF TAX CUTS
With this massive, only-once-in-a-President’s career opportunity, the occasion HAS to be maximized. There will not be another for Trump. When the biggest tax cut in history is enacted, you don’t let anything mess with the news cycle. You don’t go calling other countries shitholes and you don’t want any pending stories out about some pornstar named Stormy Daniels. You want every second of every news channel to be about the massive tax cut you just achieved. This is TOTALLY Republican-owned material. What can the Democrats do? Come and say ‘yeah yeah good for tax cuts’? And sound like they love Trump? Or try to say ‘no no no tax cuts because of (technobabble)’ and the sound bite played at your next election is ‘no no no tax cuts’. All citizens love getting tax cuts. Always. This is irresponsible governing by Trump but it is GOOD politics. Except for the (increasingly rare) fiscally responsible Republicans, all others love tax cuts. Note, on BOTH sides of the aisle. Democrats too love getting tax cuts!
What you DON’T want is for your big tax cuts celebration to be drowned out by some other political story. Gosh, not a DOWNER story of shutdown. Gosh, not a downer story that BLAMES YOU for the shutdown. And gosh, gosh, gosh, not to drown out the tax cuts by a story that you just COST THE COUNTRY 20 Billion dollars!!!
So regardess of whether a shutdown might be a good or bad thing to do. This is the WRONG TIME to do it. Because the tax cut was the big news, and nobody would be saying one word of shutdowns now, if Trump had signed the deal he had in front of his ugly orange-color face. The Republicans could be taking a victory lap with their signature legislation and Trump would have Air Force One fuelled to fly to any trivial gathering to sing ‘tax cuts tax cuts, largest tax cuts in history’. This is lunacy to run the utterly unnecessary shutdown NOW. The first legislative victory of the Trump administration. And he utterly squandered any publicity for it. A Stable Genius.
So one of the most popular ‘trademark’ items that the Republican party is known for, is now mostly hidden from the news. But they still did enact that tax cut, they’ll get benefits of it on election day. Just that the publicity and propaganda opporunity is wasted. A wasted opportunity while not strictly ‘damaging’ the GOP. However, most members of Congress will HATE Trump for taking this celebration away from them. That may have consequences down the line, in eroding Trump support.
CRIPPLED PRESIDENCY
But the big damage comes via Trump’s stature. He was elected as the strong powerful businessman. Only he could fix things. It took his genius to sort things out. He is the master negotiator who wrote the Art of the Deal (a brilliant book ghost-written for him which clearly Trump himself has never read). He would build the Wall on the border, it would not cost one penny in taxes because Mexico will pay, and Trump will keep America safe. Maga! The Democrats were weak and incompetent and idiots. The Stable Genius would fix all the damage starting from eliminating Obamacare.
Up to today, Trump has maintained a reasonably good illusion of the strong President. Oh, no, I don’t mean to us, sane people. I mean reasonably good illusion to his base voters. The ones who would listen to Sarah Palin too. And he gets the image of being the strong President regularly reinforced on Fox News.
When Trump has to capitulate to Schumer on the compromise, and take a lesser deal than he once had. The emperor will have no clothes. There will be no way anyone can put lipstick on that turd, when he HAD money for (a small part of) the Wall and now has to go without it. The Republican base will hate how Trump gave away DACA and allows illegals to remain and get some sort of amnesty. The fiscal conservatives will be livid that Trump tossed 20 Billion dollars into a garbage can and let it burn - for THIS? A deal WORSE than what we just had? What kind of lunatic IS HE? This is the type of man who could conceivably bankrupt a casino! (Five actually. A world record in casino management incompetence but lets not go into Trump University or Trump Airline or Trump Vodka).
The voters will hate Trump for this pointless waste and damage to the USA. His standing among his base will crumble - a LITTLE TEENY WEENY bit. Barely noticeable. But his standing among those in the middle politically, who were duped to vote for him in 2016 - will collapse. And the sillyness of this gambit will embolden sane Republicans to start to call Trump out as a loonie. This first year, when Trump popularity is the lowest ever measured for any President at the 1 year mark - will be remembered as the ‘golden year’ for the man with the golden hair. (yes am calling Peak Trump). It will be FAR worse when his own side deserts the madman and he feels ever more isolated and abandoned. Even a strong President suffers from that. But a narcsissist? He will be suicidal.
ITS THE ECONOMY, STUPID
But all that could be averted, if there is salvation at the end. November 2018 will be the midterm elections. All seats in the House are up. One third of the Senate are also up. And the one overriding power in US elections is the economy. If the economy is strong, the President’s party gets good results. If the economy is tanking, the President in power and his party, get the blame.
We know, readers of this blog, how utterly unfair that is, because the President has no control of the economy. But that is how it is. And we know, the economy runs in cycles. There ARE always upswings that ALWAYS are followed by downswings, which then are followed by the next upswing. It is a wave. Has always been, will always be. And we are now on the tail end of the Obama economic wave that is soon to end. It will end. The only question is when. Will it be this summer or this next winter, or maybe go onto next summer. The end is coming. It is a wave. It is basic economics. Economics 101.
And did you notice, many banks have issued forecasts that in about a year, the US economy will be in recession. There you go, Donald Trump. When it comes, YOU will be blamed for tanking the economy. It is utterly irrelevant what is the real (lack of) power that a President has. The next recession will come, and you will be blamed. We (readers of this blog) know that the economy runs in cycles, the next recession is months or a few quarters away. Will come before 2020. Will it come this year or 2019, that is the question. It will come. It is unavoidable. Trump will preside over the next recession. And he will hate it, that they will refer to the good times as the Obama economy (with the longest streak of job growth in US economic history; jobs are always lost in recessions).
We don’t know how deep (devastating like with W Bush-Cheney) or light the next recession will be, but it will come. And then all that bullshit about Trump being great for the economy will be exposed for the myth it was, and people will remember VERY fondly (and unfairly) how good the times were under Obama. And MANY in the business side, will point to, or remind audiences, that by the way, remember the shutdown? That shutdown helped bring about this recession. So there is a nasty ripple effect in that direction too (damaging Trump).
Now recessions mean jobs will be lost. THAT hits Trump and the Republicans where they are vulnerable. Those voters who tend to vote Democrat, but took a chance with Trump. They will HATE ‘his recession’. The longest period of job growth under Obama, the good economy, is ended by the Billionaire who doesn’t care about the little guy. Because it will mean job losses, where the Orange Haired One promised jobs. Oh, Coal. Clean Coal. MAGA! MAGA! Gosh what a fraud!
Why am I writing about the economy? Because one thing is CERTAIN. About the only thing a President could do, to impact the economy, is to TANK it. To PUSH it into recession. Like how, tell us Tomi, how? By running a shutdown, that will damage the economy!!! The last shutdown was only a few weeks. It damaged the GDP by 0.5%!!!!! Half a point! That is a massive hit, on an economy that is GUARANTEED to go into recession, and the only question is WHEN. Trump has just brought FORWARD his own recession! This is indeed, a ‘stable’ sort of genius.
One of the news sources Trump loves, is the business news. THEY will make this point every day during the shutdown. And he will HATE it that he is being blamed for bringing the country to recession.
I don’t know IF this will end up bringing the recession up in time of the mid-terms 2018 by November. But unless Trump ends the shutdown now, this first week, the damage will be significant enough, to probably bring the next recession up by one PERIOD (3 months). That is madness, if you’re the ‘economy’ President. Trump will defend rising unemployment and lost jobs, when his re-election campaign comes in 2020. This hits not just Trump but all vulnerable Republicans in rustbelt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio etc). And those states have a lot of Trump-critics on the Republican side, who can’t wait to jump on their party’s baffoon President. Like Ohio Governor John Kasich (a Republican who hates Trump) haha.
Now, if Trump was a ‘smart economist’ like say Bill Clinton, he’d be PREPARING for the downturn and ensure it is as short as possible and the damage is as little as possible. Trump has no competent support and is utterly incapable of understanding the economy himself. So the DAMAGE to the economy both of this shutdown, and the later Trump administration steps to end the recession - will be feeble and often counter-productive. This is like Trump would be laying a minefield IN FRONT OF HIS OWN TROOPS as they march forward.
(can you sense a tsunami wave building already, or is it just me?)
THE BETRAYAL
I told you, Trump doesn’t know what he is doing and he got bad advice from watching Fox News. Schumer is not a fool. He will insist on a private deal with Trump. No Senate and no House participation. Trump will love this. He likes to be 'in control' and to do the deal among the two of them, as Trump increasingly distrusts Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan. And the bargain Trump and Schumer will strike, will be the holy hand grenade by Schumer. If the Senate GOP are not there to see Schumer’s tricks, this is like a grown up playing monopoly with a six year old.
If Trump was wise, he’d jump at the earliest opportunity to end the shutdown now this week (and get away with very mild concessions). But Trump doesn’t deal well with reality. He is self-destructive and plays brinkmanship. He will NOT do the easy sane thing. He will make this FAR worse - on himself - and the GOP - which only helps the Democrats. It will take a long while for Trump to ‘get it’ that he HAS to negotiate, personally, with Schumer. (Trump HATES it that Schumer is a better negotiator than Trump is, and now Schumie holds all the cards). And Trump will try any other gambit to not do that. He will send anyone else as his envoy. But because this time Trump personally f*cked Schumer, Schumer won’t waste his time with another bait-and-switch gambit. He will wait, and the longer Trump waits, the more it will cost the GOP. And now remember. This is a conflict of interest. Trump personally, has utterly different interests than the GOP as a party. Trump doesn’t understand HALF of what is being discussed. So Schumer can pull any trick he wants. Trump can give away half of the store to Schumer and not understand how that might anger some in the GOP.
And it is in Schumer’s best interest to get the GOP to fight against each other - in an election year. That is not just how you win back the House. That is how Schumer could get to even flip the Senate this year, and not have to wait until 2020.
It is utterly possible that the ‘first deal’ by Trump & Schumer ends up NOT passing the HOUSE. That their deal gets the votes in the Senate and fails in the House. And then Schumer will say - Trump, you failed. I delivered my part. And walk.
And guess what. The REPUBLICANS kept the hated shutdown GOING.
Schumer is in a “can’t lose” situation. He can patiently wait until Trump is on his knees and take whatever Schumer wants. This is the biggest political blunder in US political history.
And it will be played out in prime time. Trump’s image, for what was left of it, will be severely tarnished by this spectacle.
So what ends up out of it? At some point there WILL be a deal. Very likely Schumer insists on a budget through December, and it will be reasonably ‘sane’. It probably doesn’t have any money for the Wall, and it very probably has full protection of the ‘dreamers’ that were part of the origins of this fight. This will make individual factions of Trump’s base LIVID. He gave away the store. And they have no more leverage, because the CR nonsense (Continuing Resolutions, every month extensions rather than an annual budget) will be gone. So the Tea Party loonies can’t do the shutdown hostage game anymore this year.
That means that many who have trusted the Shithole-In-Chief, will suddenly feel utterly betrayed. He promised us the Wall. Now we have no wall but he gave amnesty to the illegal bastards? And this is our ‘master negotiator’? A part of the most loyal Trumpists will sense that sensation in their back, as if someone has stuck a knife in it, and is twisting that knife? They won’t like it. They will have a VERY loud voice in the right wing echo chamber. And that starts to erode Trump’s loyal base. What happened to the guy who wrote the Art of the Deal. And the snarky right wing radio hosts will be more than happy to gleefully remind readers - oh Trump didn’t write that book himself. But here’s an interesting book (picks up latest tell-all book from ex Trump admin members) and the most loyal edge of Trump’s support starts to rebel against him. THIS will be epic infighting just in time for a November 2018 mid-term election, where Tea Party Trumpists will feud against Tea Party extremists, both of whom are rejected by Coca Cola Classic ie GOP classic and the Democrats will laugh and laugh. And pick up the House.
(is this feeling like smart strategy, this shutdown?)
THE GRAND FRACTURE
The long-festering Republican Civil War calmed down once Trump won. They’ve now had all power in Washington DC and due to the strongly divergent interests, the GOP as a party (apart from Trump’s own ineptidude) has been remarkably weak at capitalizing on this rare moment in political power. This stage comes to most Washington DC politicians only once in a career. And they’ve squandered already half of that opportunity. But the Tea Party nutter wing has been rock-solidly behind their President.
I believe that the New Compromise that Trump has to strike with Schumer, THAT will start the Grand Fracture. A new fault starts to form in the Republican Party Civil War. It will not be only Tea Party vs GOP Classic. The new fracture is among Trump supporters. Those who still love him (the super-delusional) and then this fracture wing - of Tea Party supporters. They will be primarily driven by immigration fear politics. They fear foreigners. They are the ones who most wanted the Wall (was on the table, Traitor-Trump gave it away) and don’t want the brown people’s kids to be given Amnesty. Which Traitor-Trump now gives. THIS will fracture Trump’s support. And the problem is, that these were in his base. They will start to spread the fear, that perhaps ALL of Trump is actually a fake. He is a fraud. He lies 2,000 times per year. Then comes the next conspiracy: Actually... he may be a DEMOCRATIC PLANT. He is what we feared. He is an anti-christ. He is the White Obama. He is the embodiment of everything Tea Partiers fear (to these immigration-nutters). And the Trump loyalist cult will see ITS OWN civil war. Remember. Trump has no recourse. He IS a fraud. He built an elaborate illusion. It is all fake. It WILL collapse at some point. This aftermath of the shutdown - if he loses the Wall but gives amnesty - that I believe WILL fracture his base. Some will call him a traitor or a Democrat in wolf's clothing.
That is most of the nutter edge talk shows and blogs and experts. I would see a Ted Cruz type to lead this revolution from the outside, while obviously a John Kasich (Ohio Governor) type will lead the ‘traditional’ Republican revolt from the opposite side. Just in time for November 2018 elections, the Republicans will be in a three-way-screaming match about who is more wrong and who is the biggest traitor. This is what Trump meant, that there will be so much winning, that we’ll be tired of all the winning.
I don’t mean the GOP splits (yet) three ways. I mean that the ROCK SOLID block of Trump support we’ve seen since late 2015 - those who would stand by Trump if he shot someone on the street. THAT will see its first serious fracture. And then all in the Trump camp HAVE to pick sides. Is he a noble man for calling countries shitholes? Is he a family man for having an 11 month affair with a prostitute while married? Is he a honorable man if he paid 100 women to shut up about his affairs with them? Is Melania an illegal immigrant and shouldn’t she be deported first for having broken laws? Is Trump a Christian man for grabbing women by their (I don’t want to say that word again). If this fracture forms INSIDE his loyal base, THAT could be the cancer that destroys his career even beyond his failing Presidency.
I believe that this shutdown will be seen as the trigger that caused that Grand Fracture in his base. It will start from here, and will be in full effect by Autumn but the split won’t be happening until after the carnage of the midterm loss in November 2018. The REALLY bad years for Trump start in 2019.
A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT GETS HIT...
So I had the analogy. The shutdown is like an earthquake in the ocean, almost not noticed. A few islands will have tremors. Only the political pundit class will blabber on about this (like haha, me on this blog, boring you to tears). BUT it has repercussions.
The shutdown (earthquake) results in immediate effects, that will end up in the end of the shutdown. My analysis says that this will end up being decided by Trump and Schumer. At that time Schumie holds all the cards, Trump is on his knees and the deal will be brutal to Trump. Because Schumer has to teach Trump never to try to go back on his word again, to Schumer. He cannot let these kind of brinkmanship games continue.
The ending of the shutdown has a new compromise. That deal and the effect to Trump i the tsunami that forms from the earthquake. It will now start to build with ever worse effects as it rushes towards the shore.
The tsunami hits the shore. A nuclear powerplant is there and is damaged. What is this last part.
ELECTION MASSACRE
The immediate effect of the tsunami wave finally reaching landfall is the November 2018 election. There have been 34 special elections so far since Trump got elected. The voters have a clear mind about how much they are against THIS President and his party. In 30 of 34 elections the Democrats won. In the four they lost - they did better on average by 15 POINTS vs the Trump election of November 2016. The Democrats by this measure are CRUISING for a massive election victory in November 2018. There has never been a situation, where this type of special elections wave, was somehow ‘cancelled’ by election day. There IS a hatred of Trump already in the air. The voters will show up and issue their protest.
The first midterm of the Presidency is ALWAYS a loss to the party in control. That is how it goes in US politics. Even if Americans LOVED their President like they did Obama, they still will give the other side gains in the midterms. It is far worse, if they HATE their President.
This is the year of the woman. There are more women registered as candidates than ever before (the vast vast majority of those are Democrats, against sitting men Republicans). And the Democratic party is energized (against this President) and have fielded for the first time in ages, a candidate in every Congressional district (you cannot win if you don’t even put someone up for the vote). There are a record number of Republicans who have quit the re-election (already). All the ‘mechanicals’ in this election are bad (for GOP).
Before you say, But Tomi, you said this also of Hillary in 2016 - I did, and I gave you my analysis here on the blog - and she won 3 MILLION more votes than Trump. But she lost the election yes. In this case it is over 450 individual elections to all House seats and one third of Senate seats. If I am right, and they too win their VOTE COUNTs, then no amount of tricks can get them all to avoid the election punishment coming their way.
So the indicators? We noted the RCP generic ballot? It is at 7.5% in favor of Democrats (very high at this point in election cycle). The President? He is at 39.9% approval - literally the record worst approval in polling history for the 12 month point in a President’s term. The economy is still going good but it may stall at any moment. The shutdown will bring an earlier end to this economic boom period. Maybe brings it for the election.
Now the effects of the shutdown and its aftermath. Trump will be severely weakened. His word will be a joke. Many who installed so much desperate hope into Trump, that he could bring back jobs and ‘clean coal!’ and get rid of those ugly brown people - that illusion is shattering. Meanwhile the Democrats talk to their unfaitful voters and say, we will fix this. And they will come back. Not all, but enough. Trump cannot get HIS voters to go bring in Congressional bums to mess up the picture. The shutdown is the perfect picture to draw to Republican voters - that hey, this Trump bozo made things WORSE.
That means less energized Republicans (low turnout) and this shutdown truly hurts mostly poor people (high turnout). Women voters & women candidates (high turnout - to Democrats). The Dreamers solution to the shutdown will be cheered by minorities (Democrat voters). The Tax Cut, while popular among REPUBLICANS is seen as a ridiculous gift to millionaires by most of the voters (will hurt more than help). The picture is in place for a much much worse election drubbing than what 7.5% generic ballot today would suggest.
And that is before the individual rats abandon their POTUS. The special elections have freaked out the professionals on the GOP side. They see the landslide rolling down the mountain. They are pros. THEY are telling THEIR GUY (or rare gal, on GOP side) that hey, save your own ass, abandon Trump. Trump will see unprecedented rejection of a first-term President by his own party in the midterms. This we have NEVER seen.
It is normal for the SECOND term POTUS to be so unpopular that he is not wanted in election work by members of his own party. But not in first term. I would guess about one third, could be half, of Republicans will refuse to be seen with Trump this Autumn in the campaiging. That will of course infuriate the Stable One. And he will issue Twitter edicts about the traitor wing to the party. This of course will the result in ever more bickering and chaos.
A divided party cannot win. I foresee the House flipping in November. I believe it will not even be close. So prepare for Nancy Pelosi again. And if Trump thought these negotiations with Chuck Schumer were tough (when he finally makes his deal, he hasn’t yet seen the angry Chuck Schumer), wait until he sees Pelosi, who is back as Speaker of the House, with an angry Democratic Congress hating the President and demanding he be investigated for Russia and so forth. The nightmare for Trump starts in January 2019. This year will be seen as the 'calm' year for the Genius known as Stable. The chaos will get progressively worse with the in-fighting, fingerpointing, investigations - and everybody publishes tell-all books that try to top each other, revealing ALL THE DIRT.
Because of where the seats are, I dont’ see the Senate flipping now (it will in 2020). It might flip already now, if thing really go against the Trumpo-monster. And as to POTUS fight in 2020, do not dismiss the enormous capacity of the Democratic party to nominate unelectable stiffs, like Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. What the Democrats needs, is another Billy Clinton or Barack Obama, but those kinds of candidates are not exactly on the cards for 2020. Maybe one will emerge. I don’t think Oprah will run (she’d win easily). The ultimate candidate would be Michelle Obama (won’t run). There is a danger Hillary or Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden will make yet another run and then Trump would have a good chance of being re-elected. It depends. Lets wait with 2020. But for November 2018. This shutdown means, the election result is sealed. Trump blew it.
ABOUT COMMENTS.
I welcome comments to the blog, please do. But you MUST have read the full article. If you post anything where I would need to reply and say ‘if you had read the full article’ then I will not do that. I will not waste the time of my readers - and your comment, however valid it may have been - will be deleted mercilessly. READ the FULL article before you post. But this blog is open to all views. PS no discussion about 2016. I admitted I got that forecast wrong. If you try to gloat here now in 2018, I will delete those comments too. Keep it about this President and this Shutdown.