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« Smartphone Stats: Full Year 2017 Top 10, OS Installed Base and Everything Else You Ever Wanted | Main | The Helsinki Hostage Summit, Putin’s Puppet Trump, and my Working Theory of How the White House was Sold (and joke songs at end) »

May 23, 2018

Comments

BennyDover

”Per "wertigon" Ekström
@Benny:

These are the facts.

China - 8% in decline (for 2017 full year)
Malaysia - 7% in decline
Phillipines - 3% in decline
Thailand - 7% in decline
India - 2% flat
Indonesia - 1% flat”

Thank YOU idiot!

Can you please give your idea of how much these markets did go down. >:( And tell the names of the all companies competing in these markets and increased their market share, installed pace, revenue and profit.

I can give that for you so that you do no need to worry.

APPLE

Thanxs TIM

BennyDover

”(1) 7nm *IS NOT* apple innovation. Apple manufacture their chip in Samsung foundry or TSMC foundry.”

Thank You! It is just the innovation of the Dutch company that Apple has a Very Good Business Relationship. AND NOW GO AND STUDY THE WORD FOUNDRY.

BennyDover

”Taking that analogy a bit further, Apple reminds me of a person suffering from the early stages of cancer”

No. It is just you.

BennyDover

”(2) Apple *DID NOT* create any CPU/GPU. Apple license a CPU/GPU design, and build an SOC (System on Chip). The Apple A12 is an CPU + GPU + kitchen sink called SOC.”

ARE YOU EFFING TRYING TO BS ME?

Apple, Acorn and VLSI builded the company that is ARM. Apple will take care of Intel.

BennyDover

And why the hell cant the Android keep up speed with A9? Are they out of mo nii?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Benny:

You're simply deluded. Sorry, you are. :)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2018/02/25/why-apple-despite-the-iphone-x-will-lose-china-market-share-in-2018/#4fed5e37462e

Oh, still not convinced? Then...

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/fallen-apple-why-iphone-is-losing-smartphone-war-to-china-s-xiaomi-in-asia-118022000126_1.html

I could keep this up but not sure how many more links I'm allowed to post before ending up in Tomis spamfilter. :)

And yes, while Apple do temporary gains in market share, like the latest one, they are temporary. The trend is downwards with the occasional speed bump along the way.

Once Apple has increasing market share 3 years in a row in these countries, call me... :)

Jim Glu

Actually, developers can be and are iOS exclusive. Android an be, and usually is in the beginning, completely ignored. Until an app is successful, then Android version is built. Or....the other way around if you are in the poor countries of the world. If you actually manage to make a successful Android app, you then create the iOS version.

Neither platform can be ignored (except in the beginning).

Name one example of a successful Android App that isn't on iOS? Not some utility that only works on Android. Name a Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, Line, Candy Crush, Clash of Kings...any global money making App that is on Android and not on iOS.

Now, it's VERY EASY to name global apps that are launched on iOS first, and who's iOS version remains the latest and most feature full. This isn't controversial outside the fanboys on this forum. Even the Android websites talk about the app gap and the app quality gap.

And for tablets? The Android app situation is lightyears behind iOS.

Google pays more than a billion a year to be the default search engine on iOS. Google once TRIED to keep the best features for Android apps on Android...it was the turn by turn voice navigation for Google Maps. Apple responded by coming out with Apple Maps...which was initially a disaster.

Or was it? The moment Apple Maps was released, Google caved and brought it's voice turn by turn to it's iOS app and has made sure ever since then that all of it's iOS apps are first rate. Sometimes even better than they are on Android: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjpoOPghavbAhWb3oMKHc1mDKkQFggpMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theverge.com%2F2016%2F7%2F8%2F12109832%2Fgoogle-apps-iphone-android-motion-stills-gboard-search-hangouts&usg=AOvVaw1t1ENG1UX8TN7I-FxNvKyS

Learn more: https://www.makeuseof.com/tag/ios-apps-still-better-android-apps/

A more thorough treatise on which platform to choose first and why: https://themanifest.com/app-development/android-vs-ios-which-platform-build-your-app-first

Basically, if you don't care about money or are serving only emerging markets...choose Android.

But selling more to the poor is no more valuable to Android software developers than it is to Android manufacturers. Which is why your theories on why iOS will go the way of the dodo hasn't happened already and isn't going to happen.

Jim Glue

Abdul - you are incorrect about Apple's licensing of ARM technology. There are two types of licenses...those that allow you to make an ARM chip "as is" and those that let you use the ARM technology, but also extend it any way you wish. Apple is doing the latter. Which is why Apple is putting out the best "ARM" chips in the world and why Android has been at a performance disadvantage for years despite running their chips at faster rates and loading far more RAM on their devices. And STILL Android can't match the buttery smooth operation of iOS that iOS has had since the original iPhone. (Of course, that's not a chip problem, but a "java kinda sucks" problem).

Apple is tuning it's ARM chips to work with it's iOS OS, and tuning its iOS operating system to work with it's Chips. It's also how Apple came out with a 64bit chip, shocking the world at the timing as no other ARM chip maker had plans for another 2 years. And iOS is now 64bit only. Android will likely NEVER be able to free themselves from the need for 32bit compatibility.

Apple's mobile chips are so good now, it's just a matter of time before Apple puts them in the Mac, replacing Intel.

Jim Glue

So how WILL we recognize that Apple is in some form of trouble? It's not that I believe Apple can do no wrong, nor that Android isn't able to compete.

But first - there is NO WAY that Apple has gone from "nice iPod and Mac" company to the world's #1 company in value and profits in 10 years - if any of Android's current advantages mattered. Why? Because Android has had those advantages the entire time. The ENTIRE TIME. At it's height, the iPhone had some 20% annual unit market sales....and that was many years ago. The vast part of Apple's iPhone sales and profits have come during it's decline in unit market share. Unless you think that having 20million annual phone sales with a 25% market share is somehow better than 14% market share with 200 million unit sales at a $250 increase in ASP is "getting yourself in trouble"....then you have to understand that Apple is vastly successful despite declining unit market share.

Ok...so...how to recognize when Android is really putting a hurt on Apple. It's rather simple, when iPhone customers start choosing Android at a rate greater than those switching from Android to iPhone. When customers who can afford an iPhone start choosing Android (whether or not that Android phone costs the same or less)....then Apple can be said to have something to be concerned about.

Not anecdotes of this or that single person making the switch. But Apple actually losing sales in Apple's target market to the competition. And this needs to become a trend, an ongoing trend for a couple years....or a massive drop at one time.

It can't be due to an exploding-iphone fiasco that might ruin a single year.

Nothing about sales to the world's poorest billions will ever affect iPhone. Hasn't before, won't ever.

Having down years in sales and profits won't be the end of Apple. Mature markets ebb and flow. It has to be that actual iPhone customers, and new to mobile customers that WOULD have been likely to go iPhone in the past....choose Android phones instead.

That's it. And it's not happening nor likely to happen

Jim Glue

lol! Per, you seriously didn't just post a Forbes article with a prediction of Apple performance? Forbes can't even get their stories right about what HAS happened. They were gleefully on the "iPhone X sales are terrible" bandwagon that turned out to be false: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2018/03/05/apple-iphonex-iphone-sales-supercycle-failure/

But let's read YOUR article. Guess what? iPhone won't due well in China because....drum roll...because it's too expensive.

That's right folks. Step right up and get your never before heard prediction that Apple can't succeed due to being too expensive.

RIGHT AFTER, Apple just raise it's ASP significantly, put out a $300 more premium iPhone and GAINED SHARE in China.

Again, folks, you have to wonder why your past predictions of doom haven't come true. Apple's iPhone has ALWAYS been tee expensive for China. Allegedly. The entire time there has been cheaper Android phones. Now there are a LOT of Cheap Android phones sold to the poor in China. And yet Apple gained share at the same time they raised the price. And it was the most expensive iPhone, according to Cook, that has been the #1 selling iPhone every week. Every week....a first for the iPhone.

Why did Apple gain share? Because Android is in a sales slump. Independently of the iPhone. The vast majority of Android sales are in the cheap tier where iPhone doesn't compete....at all. So iPhone loses share when THAT segment grows....and gains share when that segment slows.

They are independent and unrelated. The iPhone X didn't "kick butt in China"....it just had nice sales. Overall, iPhone sales only grew a couple percent. The marketshare gain comes from Android sales decline. Declining from that segment of the market that don't buy iPhones no matter what.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

So what you are saying is that Apple is in a bubble market of their own.

Right, you keep believing that. Not gonna change a damn thing for the next few years. :)

Meanwhile, Android will climb, iPhone will fall, and the only question is how long Apple can dodge the reaper in their ever-shrinking market bubble.

Snowball... Meet the Arizona desert.

Jim Glue

Bubble market? Is the Mac a bubble? Are smartphones (iPhone and Androids) going the way of the iPod? Are PC's a bubble?

No. They are all sustainable business product categories who have gone through the well established S curve of demand and are now mature. Mature doesn't mean "pops like a bubble".

The one product that looked like it might have been a bubble was the iPad. The iPad had meteoric growth. Growing much faster than iPhones did originally. Some thought that iPad's incredible growth rate would continue. What happened was THREE YEARS of falling sails. And yet, nobody was stealing away iPad customers. It's just that iPad replacement cycles turned out to be much longer than iPhone sales.

Apple split the iPad line into two....with a Pro, more expensive line and cutting the price of the "normal" iPad to $320 ($299 for schools). The sales slump eventually ended and iPads are back to growing. Not a bubble.

Just like the end of the hyper growth of Android is not being followed by a bubble bursting. There will be growth quarters and decline quarters. Growth years and decline years. Same for iOS and Android

Abdul Muis

@Jim

"you are incorrect about Apple's licensing of ARM technology. There are two types of licenses...those that allow you to make an ARM chip "as is" and those that let you use the ARM technology, but also extend it any way you wish. Apple is doing the latter. Which is why Apple is putting out the best "ARM" chips in the world and why Android has been at a performance disadvantage for years despite running their chips at faster rates and loading far more RAM on their devices. And STILL Android can't match the buttery smooth operation of iOS that iOS has had since the original iPhone. (Of course, that's not a chip problem, but a "java kinda sucks" problem)."

If you compare flagship to flagship. ALL ANDROID flagship is buttery smooth.
In fact, MOST 2017+ android with antutu score larger than 50K is buttery smooth.

Android have performance disadvantage?? whatttt........... Learn the truth!!!
On day 1 of Android device release.... FLAGHSIP android device is as fast as Apple iphone on comparable year
BUT AFTER 1 YEAR OF USAGE... the android device is still as fast as it should be, where's the Apple iPhone device will be AT PERFORMANCE DISADVANTAGE because it won't be buttery smooth. iPhone performance degrade over time, because Apple have done some CPU design mistake. Apple pushing the single core speed, which is not good for battery health. At this time, I think Apple need to pursue different approach.

Android loading MORE RAM???
PLEASE EXPLAIN the ipad with 4GB memory!!!!
because the ipad want to run 2 apps side by side!!! multitasking...
at the time when apple introduce the 4GB RAM ipad, iphone have 2GB RAM.

"Apple is tuning it's ARM chips to work with it's iOS OS, and tuning its iOS operating system to work with it's Chips. It's also how Apple came out with a 64bit chip, shocking the world at the timing as no other ARM chip maker had plans for another 2 years. And iOS is now 64bit only. Android will likely NEVER be able to free themselves from the need for 32bit compatibility."

(1) The only advantage of 64 bit is if you want to use larger than 3GB of RAM, which Apple don't need to do at that time. Yes, Apple surprised everyone for upgrading the 32 bit to 64 bit with no gain from the upgrade.
(2) You're wrong on the 32bit android... Google already set a deadline for 64bit only

Jim Glu

You are simply silly, Abdul. Android PHONES have been running at higher clock speeds, more cores, and more ram for YEARS than the iPhone and STILL are anywhere from 1 to 2 years behind the iPhone performance.

Here's an article explaining: http://bgr.com/2018/02/07/best-android-features-hidden-menu-increase-speed/

Android phones slow down over time: http://library.uco.edu/UCOthesis/AdamsKK2015.pdf

And that's WITHOUT getting new OS versions...like happens on iPhones. Sure if you have a bad battery (and lets see you try and make the claim that somehow Android batteries don't degrade over time like ANY batteries)....or put on a new OS version on an iPhone...you MIGHT have some slowness issues.

But Android gets them for just USING Android.

And you CAN'T describe the "Android" experience only from the top, most expensive, isn't where the vast majority of Android phones sales happen....handsets.

I think it's hilarious that Samsung is advertising against Apple's "throttling"....as if Samsung's batteries (when they aren't exploding) don't wear out over time as well. Only Samsung has added NOTHING to their software to secure ongoing safe performance whether or not you upgrade the battery. And that's all you need to do, upgrade the battery....you don't have to buy a new iPhone. And for this year, you can do so for $29 as a "sorry we didn't communicate this very well" apology from Apple.

Then again, nobody's smartphones stay active anywhere near as long as iPhones. Which, btw, get 5 or more YEARS of OS upgrades. Upgrades you don't have to install if it turns out they slow down your older iPhone.

Tell me what happens to a 5 year old Samsung that gets the latest Android. Oh shit....such a thing doesn't exist anywhere in the Android world.

I just upgraded my BLU HD R1 Android phone to Android 8.0 (from 6.0). It cost me $130. Well, the BLU Vivo XL3 cost me $130 and I bought it to have the "latest" Android on a cheap back up phone. The Nokia 2.1, 3.1, 5.1 announced today had me THINKING about returning the BLU. But they aren't available in the US yet, and they are not price competitive at the low end. The Vivo XL3 is priced like the Nokia 2.1 but is spec'd more along the 3.1/5.1. The 2.1 with only 8mg ROM is a non-starter.

Tester

@PWE:

"So what you are saying is that Apple is in a bubble market of their own."

A very apt term for what's happening there. The only reason why Apple hasn't taken larger damage yet is this weird insulation field many Apple users live in.

But let's not forget that the main problem with bubbles in general is that eventually they burst. Bubbles are not sustainable, no mstter what environment they happen in. So let's just comfortably sit back and wait... :D

Jim Glue

"Weird insulation field" - also known as "Apple derangement syndrome". The inability to accept the customers genuinely like and find value in Apple products - even at Apple prices.

Everyone that buys an iPhone could buy an Android phone....and a nice one at that. The vast majority of Android sales are at price points that don't exist for iPhones. iPhone users that have a choice whereas most Android buyers do not. And 600M of them choose iPhone. Probably 1.5B of Android's 2B customers couldn't buy an iPhone even if they wanted to.

And still, that leaves hundreds of millions of Android customers that can afford an iPhone and don't currently buy Apple. That's what Apple see's as "growth opportunity".

Sure, Apple removed the headphone jack from iPhones but at the same time released the amazing AirPods. I just misplaced mine for 2 weeks (they are damn small) after wearing them daily for 1.5 years. OMG - how terrible it is to go back to wired or regular Bluetooth headphones. Many Android manufacturer's followed Apple's lead and removed the headphone jack WITHOUT creating anything close to AirPods. And the few "AirPod killers" that have come out since, cost MORE.

If you want a great smart watch experience....there is only the Apple Watch to consider...which goes with your iPhone.

If you want a great phone/tablet combo experience....nothing beats iPhone+iPad.

Best computer/phone pairing? And iPhone and a Mac. By far.

If you have an iPhone - you get all of Apple's apps and services AND all of Google's, Amazon's, Microsoft's, Facebook's, Tencent's, Alibaba's. If you buy an Android - you don't get any of Apple's apps and services, and delayed access to most cross platform apps and services.

Buy an iPhone and be assured of 5 years of new OS support....on the same day that the OS is released (if you are the type to upgrade before letting others be the guinea pig).

Lots of reasons to be a happy iPhone customer.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

You are saying Apple has their own market, and that market cannot be influenced by that other market.

Which of course is hogwash, even something as essential as the detergent market is influenced by other markets to one degree or another.

You are also saying that Apple iPhone, iPad etc are not regular products for their segment but have a special segment of their own, e.g. Apple only competes with Apple.

And... For Apples sake, I seriously hope this is not the case, because that would mean Apple decline is merely two or three years away.

If you cannot see why a $400 product can beat a $1000 product, even for a person with large disposable income, then you are simply an idiot. Plain and simple.

Jim Glue

@PER - of course the iPhone IS in competition with a SEGMENT of Android, but only a segment.

As for $400 vs $1000 -- have you looked at Mac laptops? They have been selling great for a long time despite cheaper windows options. Not as well as Windows unit wise....but enough such that Apple makes more money than the top 5 computer sellers combined (and that stat was from years ago and and only gotten stronger since).

And let's not pretend that every iPhone owner has to pay $1000. You can get a new iPhone starting at $349. You can get used iPhones cheaper than that. You know....just like there are $1000 Android phones, just not ones that many people buy.

That's the Apple difference. Samsung Galaxy S and Note phones are certainly iPhone competitors. But those are not the phones that Samsung sells the most of. But at least Samsung sells them in the 10's of millions. Poor Google, HTC, Sony et. al. They have expensive models too, but they are a statistical blip.

It's a good thing that cheap Android phones have brought computing to the masses in ways that Apple never could. Just don't consider them competition to the iPhone. The Android ASP was something like $206 last I read. Now, that's average, I'm not sure where the mean is. But I think we can rest assured that the mean is lower still.

These are the phones, likely a billion or more...that make it appear that Android is a juggernaut. Well, Android IS a juggernaut...but none of these phones take sales away from Apple. How so? None (in a statistically meaningful way) of these phones are sold to people who were iPhone buyers. Not before the iPhone, not after. Apple has zero chance of selling new phones into this market as Apple's cheapest phone is twice as expensive.

Just like Hyundai Sonatas do not compete with Mercedez. When I bought my Sonata, Mercedez didn't lose a sale. Mercedez never had a chance at my business. When I buy a Timex Watch, Rolex did not lose a sale.

If someone would publish the numbers of Android phones that genuinely are competition to iPhones (who's sales comes at the expense of an iPhone sale)...you'd see that Android has gone from parity with the iPhone (around the Galaxy S4 time frame) and has been going down ever since.

The vast majority of cheap Android phone customers do not participate in the smartphone ecosystem. They don't subscribe to music, don't pay for apps or buy in-app purchases, etc. They are feature phone customers with Android as their feature phone operating system.

ManuTM

@Jim

"Android phones slow down over time: http://library.uco.edu/UCOthesis/AdamsKK2015.pdf"

No offence but what are you smoking?

E.Casais

@ManuTM

Quite amazing, isn't?

Tomi's post is about iPhone, ZTE, Facebook, Nokia.

What do we get? The nth re-edition of reheated arguments on Apple vs. Android by their respective thurifers.

At least this time we can give top mark to Jim Glue for a startling, utterly out-of-the-box reasoning based on the "Richardson Fanning Controversy and its Effect on Spirituality in the Stone Campbell Movement".

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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