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May 23, 2018

Comments

BennyDover

@Per

Ef off! You try to claim things for Huawei because they released a press release earlier than Apple. Apples processors are here right now and they are crushing the Huaweis processors. Apple released now A12 Bionic that is amazing plus they released the S5-SIP. Apple Watch is now 64-Bit and it is more powerful than most of the Android phones. This is a sad day for the Android OEMs.

BennyDover

”in the VERY near future Apple will come with new iOS updates which will slow down the iPhone X.”

Actually they are making every iPhone since the iPhone 5S faster than they have ever been. IOS 12 is out and it is absolutely fantastic. Best mobile os ever made.

BennyDover

Apple releases later in October the new A12X processor for the iPads. Apple keynote had lots of bad news to the competition they are now doing almost everything in house. Even the camera lenses are now Apple's own instead of Sony.

BennyDover

TSMC moved to 7nm process only because Apple stepped in with their money and with their orders. Huawei has nothing to do with this and they are riding the wave that Apple created. actually, Apple is more like tsunam. Samsung isn't moving to 7nm process because they can't justify the investment yet. They simply do not have enough orders yet.

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

@Benny

Your statement is not only false, is a big lie.

TSMC moved to 7nm is not because of apple money. All foundry (TSMC, intel, AMD, Samsung, etc) always in constant to upgrade their manufacturing capability. The problem is, it's not easy. For the 7nm race, TSMC just happened one step ahead of samsung.

I know you were a big iSheep, but please, don't make up a lie too big, that make it easy to spot.

BennyDover

@theidiot

”TSMC went into volume production with 7-nm tech in April, and rival Samsung is moving toward commercial 7-nm production later this year or in early 2019. GlobalFoundries recently abandoned its attempts to develop a 7 nm process, reasoning that the multibillion-dollar investment would never pay for itself.”

Apple will order around 300 million processors with the 7nm process in the first year and around billion 7nm processors in the first 3 years from the TSMC. So the TSMC knows that their investment to this process is secured. Apple also pays this investment. Without their best customer, they would not do it. Apple does not need to say jump because TSMC has already asked how high Apple wants them to jump. Samsung loosing the Apple as their processor customer is a huge blow to everything they do and Intel is on line too. That is why Intel turned to TSMC to make the new processors with the 14nm process for Apple. Money makes the world go around.

BennyDover

It is not the TSMC that has developed this 7nm process. It is one Dutch company that makes these machines for it and you have to have the money to order them.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Benny:

Spoken like a true fanboi.

Tell me - If I have an iPhone X what tangible reason would I have to buy an XS?

Now if I have a 6, 6S or even 7, that's different. It's a natural upgrade.

But an X to XS? Nope.

And yes, Apple customers can no longer buy an iPhone with a 3.5mm audio jack, and in two years, when the iPhone 8 falls off the cliff, they will also not come with a dongle. So, if 3.5mm is your thing, which it is for a lot of people especially creative musician types, then Apple is a big no-no.

Also, Apple will no longer sell older models than 2 years back, and are completely abandoning the 5C customers that actively *want* a smaller screen phone.

These are facts, not opinion. Cold, hard and unmoving facts.

Will they affect Apple? Not really.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Oh, and Apple watch - is there any compelling reason to get one still? Last I heard there were no killer app features and more and more devs are abandoning ship.

Jim Glu

If you have a Note 8, what possible reason do you have to buy the Note 9. Why are we always saying the latest iPhone isn't necessary because last year's iPhone is still fantastic? That's the same for ANY new phone from ANY manufacturer.

Keep in mind, that your last year's iPhone brings in a healthy trade in value making getting the new iPhone a bit easier. It's hardware as a service, and many telco's in the USA, and Apple itself, have some version of "iPhone forever plan" that allows you to upgrade easily every year.

The bulk of the new iPhone sales are going to come from the massive install base. The 215M unit sales area already baked in, a shoe in. Samsung is still looking for a way to stop the bleeding, and the Galaxy S 9/Note 9 do not, once again, appear to be the solution. Nice phones though.

I'm not getting a new phone this year....but I'm getting an upgrade in the next couple weeks. iOS12 is going to give me a 30-40% speed boost! One of my kids' phone is in need of being replaced due to "kids are rough on phones"...it's a 3yr old iPhone 6s. I'll be finding a refurbed iPhone6s to replace it. The 6s is still a great phone.

Jim Glu

Benny is right about Apple's volume paying the way for TSMC to go to 7nm. For companies that don't have the capital to expand to meet Apple's needs, Apple prepays, sometimes for years, for expected production. Apple also is known to buy the capital equipment needed and puts them in the partner's factories. Just one of the many advantages to running an very profitable business.

I'm quite surprised that the same people who laud Android for features that only geeks and enthusiasts will use...have ZERO interest in the amazing Apple A12 Bionic. 5 trillion machine learning computations per second? 9x the CoreML speed at 1/10th the power.

Hello Pokemon Go type apps that won'd drain your phone in a couple hours.

Hello real time machine learning that's not a cloud based advertising data mining operation. Mining YOUR personal data.

And of course there aren't that many new apps to take advantage of this power YET. But they will come because there will be 45-50Million install base in a year with these abilities. Cutting edge game and app developers will continue to develop for iOS because that's where the cutting edge capabilities are and where there is a sizeable base of people to sell into.

Timo

@Per
" in two years, when the iPhone 8 falls off the cliff, they will also not come with a dongle"

Had you paid attention you would have heard Tim Cook say in iPhone XS launch event that starting from now the iPhone 8s shipped will NOT have a dongle in the box.

So no need for two years, future is here already.

BennyDover

Android Lemmings Whining Barometer (tm) tells that Apple is going to sell hundreds of millions of these new iPhones.

I haven’t preordered yet because I can’t decide do I want to have a red X R or go with a gold X S Max. Apple Watch Series 4 Nike GPS+Wireless is coming.

This annual jabbing about the iPhone prices is so stupid that you could stop it next year.
A) Learn to save money
B) Go and ask if the operators have a good deals for you
C) Buy something else
D) Don’t anything this year
E) Buy a refurbished later
F) Buy a secondhand one later

BennyDover

The dongle issue. First. Everyone wants wireless headphones. It is idiotic to produce over 220 million dongles. Those are electronic waste because Apple provides headphones with the lightning cable with the iPhones. If you need one you go and buy one. Prices are from 1€ to 9€ per piece.

BennyDover

Apple Watch has a killer feature and that is the ECG.

BennyDover

Apple Watch is not only the number one smart watch in the world, it is the number one watch in the word. Apple is the biggest watch producer in the world. It is awful when Apple fails like that. /s

BennyDover

Let’s let the Horace explain you again what the facts are:

http://www.asymco.com/2018/09/13/lasts-longer/

Jim Glue

I don't know, Benny. Sounds like Apple is extolling the virtue of lemonade....which they had to make as the result of the lemons of a matured premium smartphone market. And it's certainly a sales pitch to say iPhones last longer and are worth the extra money. But they've always lasted longer even when the new iPhone started at $650. I do not believe today's newest iPhones will last longer than the iPhone 6 line.

Mind you, they may well be worth it for all the other reasons that make them great phones. And given that gross margin has not ballooned along with the ASP...even with the "free money" that comes from services that is also ballooning....it's a reasonable conclusion that these iPhones cost more to buy because they cost so much more to make.

And Apple removed it's $350 iPhone SE option. We are looking at yet another $100 increase in ASP I'd bet.

Just like the DLSR's....I can no longer buy the latest and greatest. I spent $3300 on the first Canon 5D...the first "reasonably priced" full frame DSLR. I was shooting weddings at the time and used it to make more money than I spent on the camera. I no longer shoot weddings....and still have that 5D as my main portrait camera. I can buy a used one now for $500. I bought a used 7D a year or two ago for $650.

The time is coming that I will begin to see iPhone's that way. These announcements will tell my what my iPhone 2 years from now will be. It will still be an iPhone....just not at the $1449 new top of the line iPhone price.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

You are staring yourself blind on Samsung, which is very interesting.

If I want an iOS phone I can right now only buy seven alternatives, all from the same manufacturer:

iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus, iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, iPhone XR, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max.

If I want an Android phone, I have at least a *dozen* different manufacturers to choose from with 20 different brands, each providing phones up to two years old. Most of these are mid-range, granted. But Samsung isn't really important to Android - Huawei and Xiaomi are starting to take over.

And I think you are wrong, the built in upgraders are not 215M but more like 200M at the moment.

We'll see how these two quarters will fare; I think sales will be good but not astounding and Apple will end up at around 215M, 220 if they get really lucky for the end of the year. It'll be apparent soon however what will happen. So, let's see what they say at early November and February... :)

Jim Glu

Samsung is the only true competitor IN Apple's space. The only company that has any volume to speak of in the premium price segment.

The companies that are eating Samsung's share are all the Android cheap to mid phones from China, and iPhones at the high end.

That Apple has pricing power is a sign of just how truly strong Apple's business is. 200M-220M, is there that much of a reason to cheer or jeer one number over the other when the ASP is marching upward towards $800.

Far from being worried about erosion of market share by the cheap competition...Apple has raised prices because they are creating more expensive phones. How so? Have you noticed Apple's margins haven't changed much? Even with the huge growth in services that has HUGE margins. Apple's overall margin hasn't changed even as the price of iPhones have grown. Those 30,000 dot projectors and facetime camera and custom cpu's etc. aren't cheap.

Android is making commodity phones cheaper. Apple is making more premium phones.

And why not? There just isn't all that much money to vie for in the Android market. Apple has a lock on the best 600M customers. They may hold onto their iphones longer, but they get an iPhone when they buy their next phone. In the mean time, they spend lots of money throughout Apple's ecosystem. Which is WHY developers of leading edge apps (or most any app that isn't a regionally targeted app) for iOS first and sometimes only.

But -- clearly -- the majority of the market doesn't care or can't afford iPhones. Which is why Android won and has an insurmountable lock on the world wide unit market share. Thing is...Apple is just fine with that. Just as Google is just fine with making big bucks of off iPhone customers.

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