My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Nokia HMD Comeback? First Year Finishes with 8.7 Million Smartphones Shipped and 1.0% Market Share by Year-End (Updated) | Main | iPhone Quarter, ZTE Troubles, Facebook Troubles, Nokia Come-back »

February 27, 2018

Comments

stoplivinginthepast

"Interestingly enough, was just made aware that MacOS and iOS now support Vulkan through a middleware layer.

I think this will be the final nail in the coffin for Metal"

Vulkan works on top of the Metal so Metal is not going to go anywhere.
On Windows Vulkan is also not made by Microsoft like the Vulkan on MacOS is not made by Apple.

arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/02/vulkan-is-coming-to-macos-ios-but-no-thanks-to-apple/

"The portable subset will also soon be able to target another platform: DirectX 12. Expected within the next few months, a similar translation layer is being developed that will enable Vulkan applications to use a DirectX 12 back-end. While Windows, unlike macOS, does have Vulkan drivers from GPU companies, applications sold through the Microsoft Store are only permitted to use DirectX."

stoplivinginthepast

"And I have yet to understand why falling prices are bad. They are good for the consumer, which is the most important part."

If the prices falls too much the company will not make any profit. It will make a loss. This is not good for the customer if the company goes bankrupt because then the customer will not get support or continuity for their purchases. When the companies compete themselfs to death with the prices the result is also end of innovation. (Look at the Wintel PC-business). Nobody has money to develop new things because those costs usually billions of dollars. Now newest Samsung Galaxy S9 & S9+ have processors that are 2 years behind the Apple´s A-series processors. Even the A10 beats it.

anandtech.com/show/12478/exynos-9810-handson-awkward-first-results

stoplivinginthepast

Again fantastic work from Horace Dediu:

asymco.com/2018/03/01/determining-the-average-apple-device-lifespan/

stoplivinginthepast

Somebody complained that I am too US centric and Apple can lure only big American companies.
Well ok. So yes most (4 out of 7) of the Apple´s partners are huge American companies, but not all of them or actually the list goes like this:

IBM = USA
SAP = EU (Germany)
Accenture = EU (Ireland)
Deloitte = EU (UK)
Cisco = USA
GE = USA
HP = USA

These companies have partnered with the Apple for a reason. (I would never have believed that even the HP would join Apple. Reminder: IBM sold their wintel pc business to the Lenovo because they were not making money with it. HP sees more profit from Apple side of the products. That is interesting.)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Stopliving:

1. Apple refusing to support industry standards, even if those standards are invented by someone else, is entirely Apples fault. Stop giving blame where there is none.

2. If no-one codes to Metal and instead codes to Vulkan, Apple might as well adopt Vulkan. Same thing with DX12. For the first time since the days of 2D, we might actually see a unified graphics subsystem that is portable, performant *and* free to use.

3. You do not need obscene profits to be sustainable in any market. You only need to make some profit.

4. There was a time when smoking was considered healthy as well. Google it. :)

5. We know Apple installed base will not exceed 650M users as things stand. That will eventually be around 11-12% final market share, at the top. Too little. Right now Apple can only go down... But the next five years will still be obscenely profitable for Apple.

Meanwhile, the world will have an installed base of around 6B smartphone units eventually. Annual markets will depend on the upgrade cycle - if it's 3 years then yes the annual global market will be 2B units, but if it's 5 years then annual global market will only be 1.25B units.

And remember, Apple will find themselves stonewalled in any markets they do not already have a high market share in. This is already happening. They are already losing market share rapidly in most of Asia (exception is China/South Korea/Japan), South America and Africa. In three years or so, they will find it all but impossible to succeed in these countries, where the native programmer population codes Android only 95% of the time.

Developers will gravitate towards the more popular platform. The reason Apple has not yet felt this is because the competition was splintered between Windows Phone, iOS, Symbian, Linux and Android. Now that only two remains, most will go for Android.

Again, Android won the OS wars, but the effects of that take time to manifest. Android won, but only now installed base is starting to reflect that for real. The sub-prime mortgage crisis did not happen overnight either - the decisions that led to the crisis took a few years to manifest.

Apple, I think, will do business as usual until they run into a stone wall - and then anything they try will be too little too late on the mobile side. If they are to turn around, now is the time, because in a couple of years it will be too late.

Jim Glue

MWC - and Android is going CRAZY over the notch. My God people. I HAVE an iPhone X and I deal with there being a notch. It’s not a GOOD thing. A little extra top bezel is ok.

Now Samsung’s answer to Animoji is the right way to copy. Oh yes, it is a copy - but not EXACT copying for no good reason.

Copy the right things folks...and put a unique and value added spin on it.

Jim Glu

I love you iPhones won't exceed 650M (even though installed base hasn't stopped growing) and Androids will grow to the size of human population including babies.

Might as well look at the energy market. Is energy use in line with the unit share of the population of the earth? Are Russia, Urban China, Japan, the US and the Euro 5 dwarfed in population by the rest of the world....also merely sipping at the world's energy usage?

The meek might eventually inherit the earth....but in the mean time, there is a huge disparity of wealth and influence and the smartphone world reflects that.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

Look at installed base numbers for iOS.

2015 - 505M
2016 - 602M
2017 - 612M

Extrapolate that to a curve. What does that tell you? It tells you, the installed base growth is slowing massively. From 19.2% growth in 2016 to 1.6% growth in 2017.

Could be that 2017 is an outlier, and we will see something like 6-7% growth in 2018. That would mean 654M units. Growth will still slow down from here on out though, and given the way the global economy - and smartphone market - is headed, 7% growth of installed base would require a Jesusphone 2.0 AND Samsung messing up just as bad as they did during the iPhone 6 release... And even then it's not guaranteed.

Numbers simply do not support the theory of Apple ever reaching more than 650M units in installed base.

Also, you miss the fact that the world population will end up at 11 billion people, next to guaranteed. If you do not believe me google Hans Rosling 11 billion. He explains it very pedagogically.

Wayneborean


Oh dear. LG phone catches fire on plane.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/passenger-suffers-burns-after-cellphone-overheats-on-plane-at-pearson-1.4557162

stoplivinginthepast

"Apple refusing to support industry standards"

Apple selects the industry standards that they support. USB is not a industry standard. It is proprietary system from Intel that Intel licenses for others. AAC and G4 wireless those are industry standards but also with license. Vulkan is not a industry standard. Apple is a member of the Khronos group and they have the reasons to have Metal in place. One is that Apple does not want to wait for a committee to make decisions that are critical for its products.

"Apple might as well adopt Vulkan. Same thing with DX12." You are dillusional. Apple will never adopt DX12 because that sh1t is proprietary system from Microsoft. Apple will never let Microsoft to make decisions of anything.

Apple makes their own processors and they also make their own code. That means that they can integrate the hardware and software better than others and the way they want. There is no way in hell that others get to decide these things. Apple has a history of disappointments with the processor makers. First IBM and Motorola, then NVIDIA and ATI, now ad Intel to the mix. With their own processors they are free to do what they want and what they need and they will do it.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Stopliving:

Apple has always a choice. Support the industry standard it previously supported, or stop supporting it. Apple chose to stop, and the consequences of that choice, good as bad, are therefore entirely due to Apples decisions. End of story.

As for Apple adopting DX12, no never going to happen. But both Microsoft and Apple may adopt Vulkan over DX12 and Metal respectively, in the future - if this framework comes out within a good time frame then people can write Vulkan-only programs for 95% of all applications.

Abdul Muis

I want to post link that Nokia is the mentioned company in MWC 2018.

But failed..... I can't post the link from nokiamob

stoplivinginthepast

Vulkan is not an industry standard. End of that discussion.
If Khronos group wants to make the Vulkan for macOS or iOS then it is their headache. Apple will not make an effort for that. They concentrate to Metal and that is it. They are already designing their own GPU´s and they will show up in the coming A-series processors and Metal is the layer for that.

So stop whining.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Stopliving:

... Vulkan is an industry standard as well, but I was talking about things like the 3.5mm headphone jack, DisplayPort Mini, HDMI, FireWire and a lot of other things Apple has chosen to stop supporting.

Also, you are obviously not familiar with how Apple works in regards to it's display drivers. In the Windows and Linux world, AMD, Intel and nVidia provide the drivers. In Mac and iOS, Apple provide the drivers.

This means Apple decides what graphics library to use - if any. And right now, that is OpenGL 4.1... Or Metal, which is not an option for software ports.

Jim Glu

I don't know where you get those installed numbers from. I know that you pulled 6B Android phones out of your ass.

Even so....600M....600 MILLION SIX HUNDRED MILLION of the most profitable customers to have. 1.2 BILLION active iOS devices per Tim Cook. Wealth, power and influence are not evenly distributed. Apple sits atop the very best customers in the world to have and that will keep Apple's ecosystem well supported.

Apple has a larger base than the entire smartphone market prior to the iPhone. That market was enough to support Symbian, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, Palm and some sort of Java. iOS developers are making FAR more money than the entire ecosystem of "smartphones" that existed prior to the iPhone. You can't just take some arbitrary percentage of market share and declare "below this, one cannot succeed" with no appreciation for SCALE. Not to mention the disparity of economic size per customer that iOS has over Android.

I used to think it was obvious that Android must surely eclipse iOS in terms of economic value....hasn't happen, isn't looking like it's going to. But even so...first or second....both markets are HUGE in terms of economic value and there is no way either one of them are going away.

The only progress Android has been making in the last couple years is to scoop up all the dumb phone to smartphone customers and the never had a phone before....poorest of the poor people in the world.

Consider India. Greatest opportunity for "smartphone growth". Sure, absolutely. But that's not the same thing as "there's a pot of gold awaiting in India". There isn't. The ARPU in India is going to be a mere sliver of what it is in the developed world. The arrival of smartphones to the illiterate is going to be a huge boon to their society. It's not going to be an economic windfall for Android app and services vendors.

Huber

Hi Him Glue,

"Consider India. Greatest opportunity for "smartphone growth". Sure, absolutely. But that's not the same thing as "there's a pot of gold awaiting in India". There isn't."

This statement is so funny! You should have had a look at Wikipedia before posting this :-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_of_living_in_India

"With one of the fastest growing economies in the world, clocked at a growth rate of 7.6% in 2015, India is on its way to becoming a large and globally important consumer economy. According to Deutsche Bank Research, there are between 30 million and 300 million middle-class people in India.[1] If current trends continue, India's share of world GDP will significantly increase from 7.3 in 2016 to 8.5 percent of the world share by 2020.[2] In 2011, less than 22 percent of Indians lived under the global poverty line, nearly a 10 percent reduction from 29.8 percent just two years prior in 2009.[3]"

So in India the middle class gets bigger and bigger. Too bad Apple is a niche player with 2-3% market share. But Samsung will happily sell their flagships in India to a growing number of wealthy people.

Again, an American-centric view which ignores what is happening in other parts of the world.

Jim Glu

AS the middle class in India grows...so will Apple's sales of the iPhone. "Fastest growing economies" is one of those lies, damned lies and statistics. Growth from WHAT BASE? And, pertinent to this discussion "what value per person in India".

Apple sales rule in middle class China. Android sales dwarf the iPhone in China because MOST people in China are poor. No one is getting rich off the poor.

There is no middle class economy in the world that prefers Android over iOS. None. That's why Android rules everywhere price is the determining feature. Android is King of the poor...and pretty damn good among the middle class. Apple is pretty damned good too, in the middle class.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

What does the iPhone has to offer any of the indians compared to Android, and is it worth double the price tag?

What did the Mac have to offer over a Microsoft PC in the nineties, and was it worth twice the price?

Look at it this way - the India middle class make perhaps $15 000 a year ($1250 a month). A smartphone is NOT worth your monthly pay for most people. Even $200 is a lot for these people. Double the cost with a factor of five, and you understand where they are coming from. Would you buy a great phone for $5000, when you could get a decent one for $1500?

A third big factor is that the iPhone has hidden costs. You almost certainly will not have a pair of headphones compatible with the latest iPhone if you use a $200 Android device, for instance. Thus, if you want headphones to your iPhone, that is another $50 spent ($250 in your world).

Feel the pain yet? :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

And here is where that 6B number comes from.

We know, as Tomi is no stranger to point out, that having and owning a mobile phone is becoming increasingly important. We know, that mobile phone is used in the home 24/7 and is used to do all kinds of neat stuff, from paying your bills to planning your road trip across the world. It is your single most valuable piece of tech.

We also know that the world population will hit 8 Billion people by 2023 and is currently at 7.6B people, of which around 2B are below the age of 15.

Most older people know how to handle a computer and smartphone, these days. Above 75, not really, but below that... And the people above 75 are about one billion.

This means, of 8 billion people, 3 are not using a smartphone. So what are the other 1B coming from? Many people still buy two phones today, smart or otherwise. So that's where.

Now, let us assume by 2025, world population is at 8.2B, and no more dumbphones exist - only smartphones. That's 6 billion smartphones, quite easily. I personally think 6B is a bit of a lowball, this could easily become 6.5B or even 7B, it all depends on when kids start receiving their first smartphone. I know my 6 year old nephew got one for instance, but then again his parents are a bit of an odd case.

But anyhow, that's where that number comes from. It might be optimistic, sure. But not impossible, and definitely plausible. And no, it's not 6B Android units, but 6B Android + iOS + whatever else units.

zlutor

@Tomi: HMD should be in hurry with new communicator - SailfishOS was proven to run on Gemini PDA... ;)

Not to mention the feature phones, where it provides Androiapp compatibility!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=HnnngoFtrSQ

BTW. was it a 3310 theh used for demonstration? ;)

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati