Nokia HMD Comeback? First Year Finishes with 8.7 Million Smartphones Shipped and 1.0% Market Share by Year-End (Updated)

We have the first published report of Nokia HMD smartphone global sales, via Nokiamob website and the stats are reported by Counterpoint. They find Nokia HMD smartphones to have 1.0% market share at 4.15M units for Q4, worldwide.


UPDATE 14 FEB 2018 - Counterpoint the analyst has revised their Nokia HMD number from 4.15M to 4.4M units as per this story at Gadgets 360. I have updated the math based on the 4.4M story. The original article from Feb 3, had 4.15M as the Nokia number.


That gives us a good number to get the full year sales of the first year come-back for Nokia brand into smartphones. This is what we have, via IDC and Counterpoint numbers that have been published:

Nokia HMD Smartphone Sales By Quarter in Year 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million
Q2 . . . 1.4 million
Q3 . . . 2.8 million
Q4 . . . 4.4 million
Total . . 8.7 million smartphones shipped in 2017

Sources: Published numbers via IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 14 Feb 2018
This table may be freely shared

I want to thank two readers. My Twitter follower Stipe Hrzic aka @stipe1906 who tweeted about the story. And then also thanks to blog reader 'Sonan', who observed that Sony just sold 4.0 million smartphones and speculated, Nokia HMD may have already passed Sony for global smartphone sales. Thanks Sonan. It certainly seems like that has already happened in Q4.

Nokia HMD is at 1.0% market share globally. The level to return to Top 10 is roughly twice that, from about 2 percent market share. Nokia HMD has been growing at about 1.5 million units more sales per quarter for two quarters (with slight growth) and was adding more countries and networks still in Q4 of last year. We should see some more growth organically just with more distribution added. Then the heavier lifting will start. Some of the fans of Nokias had gotten their first phones back, and that excitement will subside. The sales reverts to more traditional sales and marketing issues. Need to invest in more marketing and especially get carriers/operators to support the Nokia HMD comeback. We may well see a slowing down of the growth rate now, after the first year of excitement. But for Nokia HMD to already pass Sony, that must be good news.

Now when will they pass 10 million units shipped? The current run rate is 1.5 million phones per month (4.4 million per quarter) and by that rate, sometime just about now, first week of February Nokia HMD will probably have passed their 10 millionth smartphone shipped, in their come-back. If so, we could expect Nokia HMD to celebrate that milestone at say Barcelona in a few weeks.

This was one analyst giving a Nokia HMD number. We may get others. Let's see how that goes. But there IS a serious come-back going on. Already now. Nokia is at 1% of global smartphone market and growing. I told you last year that 1% by the end of the year was well within their cards. And if so, then 2% by the end of this year, 2018, would be also plausible. And THAT would be on the brink of returning to the Top 10. We may see Nokia back as a brand in the big smartphone wars in about a year from now, if these early growth trends continue. That would be amazing!


UPDATE 14 FEB 2018 - So the same article with the updated Counterpoint number, gave also other details. They count Nokia current global market share at 1.0% and the rank of Nokia brand among Top 10 smartphones as number 11. Meanwhile another analyst, Trendforce, has counted 11.5 Million as the final Nokia HMD smartphone number for year 2017 (significantly more than my count of 8.7M), and they also have Nokia currently at 1.0% market share, but Trendforce has given their projection that they expect Nokia to be at about 20 million smartphones sold this year 2018. Good signs... 


I will still wait, in case any other analysts report any Nokia numbers. When we have all data in, I'll do a forecast for this year. 

Comments

[deadonthefloor]

Compare with Google's first party offerings, I'd say HMD Global/Nokia are in great shape.

[Henrik Nergard]

A new book about Stephen Elop and Nokia translated to English:

https://medium.com/@harrikiljander/operation-elop-6f2b043f52c5

Interesting reading, and basicly they got the same conclusion as Tomi Ahonen that Elop was probably the world worst CEO in all times.

[Paul]

@Henrik
I thought that book was verboten as a topic as it clearly says there was no conspiracy behind Elop, he did not intentionally drive down Nokia to get a bonus and there was no Skype boycott - all three exact opposites to what Tomi says?

[Henrik Nergard]

@Paul

If you read the full book and all episodes in the link.
1. They mention the Skype boycott.
2. The burning platform memo that Elop write had a huge impact on the sale of of the Symbian phones in a bad way.

Im not sure of all details in the book are correct. But I suppose it basicly backing up Mr. Ahonen in his statement that Elop was a bad CEO.

[Henrik Nergard]

From chapter 16 in the book:

"On May 10, 2011, Nokia received a blow under the belt from its new partner. Microsoft announced the purchase of the internet phone company Skype for almost six billion euros ($8.5 billion).

The deal was poison to Nokia’s dreams about a network-provider-friendly ecosystem and showed where they stood with respect to their relationship with Microsoft. Nokia’s interests did not weigh when bigger wheels started to turn. Skype was a thorn in the flesh for network providers, because internet phone calls ate into their voice call revenue. Providers weren’t making a profit selling Windows Phones if it was too easy to make internet-based phone calls on them."

Anyway its history. Looking forvard now for HMD Global and the new Nokia.

[Paul]

I don’t think there has ever been any kind of disagreement on Telco’s not being fond of Skype.
But what comes to global carrier boycott arranged in cooperation between the carriers...
...not mentioned. In fact, Skype is mentioned only seven times in the entire text, all in that chapter and near to each other. Closest thing to a Skype boycott is this:

“Vodafone, in particular sent a clear message along the lines of “if our solution cannot be configured on equal terms with others, we will not sell these devices.””

Which merely implies that Vodafone would’ve sold Lumias had their service been able to be set as a replacement for Skype.

But you are right in one thing - it is a good read.

[Abdul Muis]

LTE speed vs. coverage
http://opensignal.com/reports/2018/02/state-of-lte

[john F.]

This will be the battle that maters, make money or die..... and finally some numbers that make sense of the most important segment, the one where companies make actual "money" not just " % " .

Strategy Analytics executive director Neil Mawston points out that “Apple now accounts for more revenue than the rest of the entire global smartphone industry combined.” iPhone ASP is flirting with $800, while the broader industry’s ASP is approximately $300. This latter metric was up 18% year over year, as both Apple and Samsung saw success with their respective premium flagships. Samsung’s Note 8 and Galaxy S8 remain popular, but Samsung is also a large player in terms of unit volumes at the lower ends of the market. However, the South Korean conglomerate has seen its position in low-cost smartphones slip in large markets like China, leading to its ASP jumping 21% to $254.

Their numbers put iPhone revenue at 51 percent of the market, Samsung’s at 16, and Huawei’s at 7. You don’t hear much these days from the folks who thought the higher price of the iPhone X was a bad idea....

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@John:

1. The iPhone X is so abysmal a failure, it's the first iPhone that will get put out of stock after one single year. THAT is how great it is.

2. So the Apple ASP is around 260% higher than the Android ASP, that should mean, with current market share of 14%, that the entire industry ASP is around $375. This is however also a useless fact that tells us nothing, since we are comparing low-level piece-of-crap phones with iPhones in that comparison.

So what you are admitting here yourself is that it's fair to compare a $100 phone to the iPhone. So what you are saying is that the iPhone is massively massively massively overpriced since you can get a $100 phone that does everything the iPhone does. That is a huge problem for Apple if that is the case, is it not?

[John F]

@Per

1. The iPhone X is so abysmal a failure, it's the first iPhone that will get put out of stock after one single year. THAT is how great it is.

Facts and solid data to back up this claim or you read some click bait? Remember, solid facts ..... numbers...

-))

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@John F:

https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-production-citing-poor-iphone-x-sales/
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/01/22/kgi-apple-will-discontinue-original-iphone-x/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/apple-may-discontinue-iphone-x-around-mid-2018/articleshow/62614490.cms

You're welcome :)

[John F]

@Per

ahh.... thanks a lot, lots of click bait, you corroborated exactly my point

Many of those click me click me articles died a sudden death after Q reports, but what's funny is that you probably did't even read the actuals
that were reported.

My recommendation, read well, solid data and facts are not found in click bait articles but in official reports

Kou is an analyst, not an insider or a company officer, far from perfect and many of his claims about the X were flat out wrong..... like Apple faced "technical challenges" in embedding Touch ID into the display... the end result? face ID ... he "thought" like many that Apple was moving the touch ID to the back

Reality check --- analyst guess, that's it

Facts.... numbers, please supply them

Solid data

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@John F:

Kou has an amazing track record, but yes upon further inspection the X will not be discontinued because of poor sales... It is because there will likely be three iPhones, and the X will probably out-compete their newer models (XS).

https://www.macrumors.com/2018/01/22/kgi-apple-will-discontinue-original-iphone-x/

As for hard numbers, I'm not an Apple employee. Do you happen to work there to get a hold of these numbers? Would love to see them.

[John F]

@Per

Would love to see them.....

Congratulations! Now we are talking sense... Kou or any other analyst didn't see those numbers as well, but you just believed it, until now that you brought back common sense to the conversation

But please feel free and check apple yearly and Q reports, they are freely available, check the ASP for last Q, the only way it makes sense at all, for the ASP to climb so much is that they sold a TON of X ... abismal would have destroy the ASP.

You are clever I can see ... you know abismal is way too wrong and the ASP only makes sense if the product sold well

[Abdul Muis]

@John

I will quote our GOD (TOMI)
The only way to count apple sales is by using a 1 year running average.

[Abdul Muis]

Motorola Study Shows Alarming Results That Confirm Need for Better Phone-Life Balance

https://blog.motorola.com/2018/02/21/motorola-study-shows-alarming-results-that-confirm-need-for-better-phone-life-balance/

Motorola has hosted a study with Dr. Nancy Etcoff, expert in Mind-Brand Behavior and the Science of Happiness at Harvard University. Dr. Etcoff is also the Psychologist at Massachusetts General Hospital Department of Psychiatry.

A third party research company surveyed 4,418 smartphone users between ages 16 and 65 in the US, Brazil, France, and India and came up with these findings.

33% of participants put priority on their smartphones over engaging with loved ones who want to spend time with them.
Younger smartphone users face the most behavioral issues with 53% of Generation Z users describing their phones as their best friend.
61% of people surveyed agree that they would like to get the most out of their phones while they are on them and the most out of life when they are not using a phone.
60% of people say it's important to have a life away from their phones.

A Quiz that you can take yourself to see what your phone-life balance is like and learn whether you have an emotional dependence on your smartphone. https://phonelifebalance.motorola.com/#/

[Tester]

Nothing really new here but the findings are still disturbing. It's really troubling to see how much inflence a phone can get over a person.

[Abdul Muis]

@tester

The finding is kind of validating tomi's favorite phrase on how much we see/unlock our phone in a day

[Abdul Muis]

https://www.blog.google/products/android/best-android-and-google-android-oreo-go-edition-and-android-one/

Google's Hiroshi Lockheimer said.
"Today, Android powers more than 2 billion active devices from 1,300 brands across 24,000 unique products."

[Abdul Muis]

Welcome $85 nokia 1
Powered by android go