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« Prepping for Q4 and Full Year Smartphone Stats. Some things to look out for | Main | Nokia HMD Comeback? First Year Finishes with 8.7 Million Smartphones Shipped and 1.0% Market Share by Year-End (Updated) »

February 01, 2018

Comments

stoplivinginthepast

"Wow!!!! May i know the source of your finding?"

The data was from Strategy Analytics.

patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apple-widens-the-smartphone-profit-gap-with-samsung-and-takes-a-whopping-756-of-north-american-profits.html

patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/the-success-of-apples-holiday-quarter-continues-with-the-iphone-capturing-51-of-global-smartphone-revenue-share.html

E.Casais

@Jim Glu

"Does Apple need to disrupt the iPhone? No."

Incumbents never want to disrupt themselves. That is a fundamental principle of the theory of disruption.

"Does Ford need to disrupt cars?"

Historically, Ford emerged because it actually _disrupted_ cars (think Model T as such, its production method, and the way it was marketed).

"It's not inevitable that disruption will occur to every company every 5 years."

Straw man, as I never argued that. There has been no disruption in the mobile phone business for 10 years.

The market is maturing, solidifying, the shortcomings of current approaches (esp. OS updates) are becoming painful. The situation is slowly maturing for a disruption.

"Having 97% of India isn't going to help Android in the enterprise."

Oh my, again those US blinders. There is no such thing as _the_ enterprise.

Thus, in India, "the" enterprise is to 97% micro, small or medium sized, to 94% unorganised. Only 10m people work for what you think are "enterprises" -- out of about 500m workers.

What Apple provides will not help "the" enterprises in India -- although they are probably in dire need of support.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Stopliving:

Except, Android has already carved out the mid and low-range market and established itself there. Apple will not disrupt those markets but enter a market they are notoriously weak in.

Apple selling low-level devices? That will end in abysmal failure and drive the company to ruin that much sooner, see 1995.

@Jim:

Apple in Enterprise is bound to go the same way as Solaris in enterprise. The Wintel Android combo will brutally murder them, just like they did every other competitor that dared set their foot there. What is worse is that the Enterprise market is almost completely orthogonal to the Consumer market.

Enterprise wants stability. Apple fails at that, and providing it kills their consumer market.
Enterprise wants easy to manage computers. Apple fails at that too.
Enterprise wants control over their data and business secrets. Apple fails MISERABLY and anyone thinking "Let's put that in the cloud!" needs to be shot on the spot.

Ask any competent sysadmin why Unix is so rare on desktops today, and you will understand why Wintel droids own everything.

Jim Glu

Google is far worse at "stability" than Apple. Well, unless you count the inability to get OS upgrades out as "stable".

Meanwhile - the ENTIRE TIME of this new age of mobile that the iPhone ushered in, Android has been there (ok, not the first year). Android has been CLOBBERED by Apple in the enterprise. Windows Mobile and Blackberry and Symbian have been kicked out of the enterprise. It is Apple that has gained the enterprise crown. Salesforce dropped all support of Android except a couple of Samsung models.

Android hasn't "carved out" the low and mid range. Android is there because there is no competition from Apple. Android has NEVER lasted as "number 1" the moment the iPhone entered any of the arenas. People forget there was a time when Apple wasn't on every carrier. There was thought that all the iPhone customers were on the one carrier in a country that had the exclusive rights. But the moment the other carriers got the iPhone, Apple took half or more of the Android business.

But that was back when Android phones had not yet become cheap. Everywhere Android dominates now....is SOLELY based on price. This is no mote of protection. This is fish in a barrel just waiting for Apple to decide if and when they will step down a rung in price and take half or more of that market. And then only time and Apple's whim protects the price layers even lower.

And Apple is on it's way. The iPhone SE starts at $350 with models every $50 or $100 all the way up to $1,150. Why do you think the Indian phone manufacturers are pressuring their government to stop Apple? You think they are worried about the 3% Apple currently takes? No. They know that Apple could flood their market with low cost USED iPhones and take their market away.

Sure, there are people that prefer Android no matter the price. Probably a good 10% of the market. Apple can take the rest whenever they want to. But really...WHY?

Apple already makes most all the money there is to be made making smartphones. Apple could grow "market share" - but that's not what Apple is judged on. You have to grow revenue and profits. Products like the AirPods, HomePod, Beats, Apple Music, iCloud - will have far more effect on Apple's growth than going down market much below the $250 price point.

Meanwhile, Apple is cranking up the AR tools and technologies. It isn't THERE yet, but it's coming. That will continue to drive the desire for the highest performing phones. And in the wings...Apple AR glasses.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

You do not understand what stability means in this context. Stable as in, not changing, not as in no bugs. Some Android vendors offer this. Others do not. Apple would have to stop automaticly upgrading iOS with every release, and that runs counter to the consumer industry and Apples current modus operandi.

Apple cannot go below $400 for new phones. And no, Apple cannot take back much market share at all at this point. Android is too big now. Apple might regain up to 20% market share at an enormous cost to their company, beyond that... Impossible.

reallyyoushouldstoplivinginthepast

You do not have to believe me. Just listen when the money talks:

"Enterprise wants stability."
"Enterprise wants easy to manage computers."

IBM says Macs save up to $543 per user
IBM already has the world's largest enterprise Mac footprint, and it adds 1,300 new Macs every week. The company says its Apple devices save IT time and money, but the cultural changes at the 105-year-old company may be even more valuable.

"He says the average PC user drives twice the number of support calls compared to Mac users, and 27 percent of PC-related issues require in-person assistance versus 5 percent for Macs. Those factors mean PCs are three times more expensive to manage than Macs at IBM, he said."

cio.com/article/3133945/hardware/ibm-says-macs-save-up-to-543-per-user.html

"Enterprise wants control over their data and business secrets."

"Apple, Cisco, Aon, and Allianz announced a first-of-its-kind cyber insurance plan that could lower cyber insurance deductibles for companies that use the security-focused Apple and Cisco products. This deal could ultimately allow more companies to pay for cyber insurance as well as improve their security in order to lower the deductibles for that insurance."

tomshardware.com/news/apple-cisco-cyber-insurance-deal,36460.html

"Apple in Enterprise is bound to go the same way as Solaris in enterprise."

It is doing the total opposite. With the partners like HP (new), Cisco, IBM, Deloite, Accenture, GE and so on the enterprise adoption is wildly succesfull and getting bigger and bigger.

"The Wintel Android combo will brutally murder them"

This is a joke right? Really bad one. What the hell is Win(dows,In)tel, Android (Linux=Unix-like+ Java) combo? And BTW Android and OS X-based OSes (Unix) have more common than Windows and Android. Intel is in dire straits because of the competition from ARM. It is only question of time when companies are going to abandon Intel (even Microsoft is looking in to this). And reminder the mobile phone companies do not use Intel processors. Some of them use modems and memory from Intel.

"Apple cannot go below $400 for new phones."
Yes it can. It can even give billion phones totally gratis if it so wants. Apple did this with the iPod and iPad. They do this when they so choose and no it is not time to do it now. Also Apple Watch wit eSim can be cheaper than the $400.

reallyyoushouldstoplivinginthepast

@Per

Even the Linus Thorvalds uses Apple hardware. He though runs Linux in his Macs. You can ask him what he thinks about Microsoft and how much he likes Intel.

reallyyoushouldstoplivinginthepast

"Android is the only smartphone platform of global and almost universal reach."

Yes Apple has some work to do and they will take their time. They are investing billions of dollars to the India through their partners. It is the Android that has everything to loose. Samsung is a good example. It suffers from Apple (high end) and Chinese OEMs (low end). Generally Android OEMs sleep like babies. They wake up screaming every hour being afraid that Apple goes after the rest of their market share cake. Apple already has eaten the strawberries and cream from their small pieces of the cake with chambagne of course.

reallyyoushouldstoplivinginthepast

The most important thing for the mobile operators is the ARPU. The iPhone helps it to go up and the Android takes it down. Mobile operators wants to get the ARPU up not down so they have a very good incentive to sell more iPhones. That works globally and also in India.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@reallyyou...

Sorry, you're looking at an US-centric corporation that has the technical know-how on how to work with Macs. Most enterprise aren't like that.

Apple do things like... Yeah, remove useful ports. In enterprise, this means that new model is completely unusable.

Imagine there comes a USB-D connector sometime in the future. Apple, not fearing change, decides "Let's go USB-D" and releases their new laptop with this newfangled USB-D port. Except, Enterprise is stuck on USB-C and will be for very many years.

That's one problem. Apple is not flexible enough for the Enterprise and there is a reason even enterprises running Macs say "Only use these for like 15-20% of the workforce".

Jim Glu

Android has global reach. That is true. There is no mobile future that does not include Android. Enterprises definitely prefer iOS but need to support Android as well for their business to consumer apps. It's just that enterprises are more than able to specify that hardware and the software for their own uses. iPads and iPhones are dominating these choices

Nobody thought Blackberry was in trouble when it's ONLY customer base was in the enterprise and 95% of the mobile world used dumb phones. Now Apple owns the space, and it's a MUCH LARGER space....AND apple has 20% of the installed base of all smart phones which is a much bigger market than "all mobile phones" were in Blackberry's hey day.

Nobody was worried about Nokia's smartphone business even though Apple sells twice the yearly rate of smartphones than Nokia EVER did.

But Blackberry and Nokia were disrupted and so can Apple. True. Same as the heat death of the universe will be true. Some day. However, not only was it Apple that did the disruption...the disruption was foreseeable.

Tomi long heralded the coming "music phone" that was going to destroy Apple's most profitable (at the time) business. It was easily foreseeable.

People didn't see Apple coming into the smartphone business...but they COULD have, SHOULD have. Apple is a computer company and the smartphone was a computer. More "phone first, some extra computing options bolted on" but still....it was not hard to see that a company with 30 years experience making the most easy to use computing in the world could well upend the...wait for it....Apple Cart!

What next? Does anyone here know what will replace the computer in the smartphone such that nobody buys smartphones anymore? I sure don't

Stoplivinginthepast

USB problems are Intel's screwups not Apple's. Apple wants things to be wireless.

Timo

@Jim Glu
"Does anyone here know what will replace the computer in the smartphone such that nobody buys smartphones anymore? I sure don't"

No, I don't think anyone here knows what...

...but we all agree that *something* eventually *will* replace the smartphone.
Just like PC's replaced typewriters as they could do the same thing and more, more conveniently.
Just like mobile phones replaced wired phones as they could do the same thing and more, more conveniently.
Just like smartphones replaced dumbphones as they could do the same thing and more, more conveniently.
Just like smartphones and tablets to a great extent replaced PC's at home. They could do the same things *people were using their PC's for* - more conveniently.

There will be technological solution X that does what smartphone does - and perhaps more - and more conveniently.

Stoplivinginthepast

"...but we all agree that *something* eventually *will* replace the smartphone."

For 4 hours at the time Apple Watch already reblaces my friends iPhone with AirPods. Few generations and then Apple Watch is your smartphone. I still cant buy it.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Stopliving:

You missed my entire point.

Imagine you buy $2000 worth of Macbook peripherals. Screens, keyboards, Mac-compatible printers and projectors, et cetera.

Then the next model of Macbook decides "Fuck that, all you need is USB-C".

That's $2 000 worth of money that just got either worthless, or now require dongles for $500 more.

How is this in any way in the advantage of a consumer or company alike? And while a consumer might not care as much about this, I can assure you... Enterprise does.

Abdul Muis

Welcome us$85 nokia 1
With android go

Murphy

Sorry to interrupt all your quibbling but 2017 is officially over (bar the shouting!) and the three main analysts have published their smartphone figures.

In order: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics.

2017 full year: 1536.5 - 1472.4 - 1507.5 ____ AVERAGE = 1505.5 million

vs.

2016 full year: 1496.0 - 1473.4 - 1488.2 ____ AVERAGE = 1485.8 million


YoY market share for the 3 main players:

SAMSUNG = 20.8% 14.33% (53 weeks 2016 vs 52 weeks 2017)

HUAWEI = 9.36% < 10.17%


For the record.
Q4 total sales fell sharply. iPhone did not and gained considerable market share for the quarter AND 12 trailing month share for the first time in a couple of years.
No iPhone didn't lose 'another' one percent in annual market share. It lost just a small fraction... and if you want to call a year 52 WEEKS (like i do) then iPhone lost ZERO% for the year.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Murphy:

So, total quarter was 415.9M, and Apple itself went up with 0.1% market share Quarter-over-Quarter but down .2% YoY. Or, in absolute percentage, from 14.54% to 14.33%.

However, if the sales in total are this bad, this means we will see Apple start taking a dive for the worse as well in units. The numbers still support a 2B smartphone market - but the rest .5B will be in the bottom, and we may not reach it this decade. Apple will only shrink from here on out. Expect a Q1 around 47.5M units for Apple. Also expect new record profits.

stoplivinginthepast

@Per

USB is Intel´s disaster and my opinion is that Apple should move away from USB as quickly as possible. (Unfortunately not going to happen fast enough)

You can study more about the USB disaster here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB

Any complaints about USB please send them to Intel. They effed it up. It is theirs and at the same time they effed up us. Apple is not happy about it too.

stoplivinginthepast

"Then the next model of Macbook decides "Fuck that, all you need is USB-C"."

That is not the only model and what comes to peripherals when I moved from iPod-connector to the lighning I sold my peripheral (dock) with my iPhone and bought a new one or actually two more. The person who bought my old iPhone was happy with the dock. Thank Jobs that Apple did not move to the mini-USB. Those a really horrible. I know lots of people who have broken their phones mini-USB port. Again complaints about that to the Intel. They deserve as much shit about it as possible.

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