My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Q4 Preliminary Estimate of Nokia HMD Quarterly Sales is 5.4M and full year 2017 ends at 9.7M | Main | Nokia HMD Comeback? First national numbers for December are out. In Taiwan Nokia HMD ranked 7th with 3.2% Market Share »

January 22, 2018

Comments

FIGJAM

@Winter

Thanks for your concern man, but I wouldn't worry about that. Belarus (who already is in a Union with Russia with much closer ties than the Russian Federation countries, there are no borders between the two countries) isn't going to be invaded by Russians and by the "people from the outskirts of the Russian Federation" any time sooner than The Netherlands will be overrun by the Moroccans and the rest of the enriching "migrants" from all over the 3rd world so I would rather worry about that and would start to get acquainted with the Koran (like they are doing with your youth in your schools) if I were you (IIRC you are a Dutch).
In Belarus there already are (totally integrated) sizeable Russian, Ukrainian and Polish minorities by the way (from Soviet Union times), but none of the trash "from the outskirts of the Russian Federation" and none there will be as long as Lukashenko is at the helm.

Right before the last elections in Belarus, Lukashenko faked his usual overtures to the EU with the aim to get more financial aid from Putin. Do you know what one of the conditions from the EU to open formal negotiations regarding commercial ties was..? Opening fucking "migrant" hot spots!!
Those motherfuckers are hell bent in destroying every last bit of remaining white vital space! They can't crash and burn soon enough.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

That is an interesting and very valid 'strategic' viewpoint. It is better for Trump to keep running a dysfunctional administration and get nothing done, than to learn to govern (and from the Democrats' point of view, therefore get more NASTY things achieved). Good point. I hadn't thought of it from that side.

In that way, even if a prolonged silly season of CRs (Continuing Resolutions) and brinkmanship with a series of shutdowns WERE to be split evenly (in terms of political blame) then the Republicans would be neutered in the process... I can see that.

I'll think on it.. :-)

PS great comments everybody, keep the discussion going..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@FIGJAM
"The Netherlands will be overrun by the Moroccans and the rest of the enriching "migrants" from all over the 3rd world so I would rather worry about that and would start to get acquainted with the Koran (like they are doing with your youth in your schools) if I were you (IIRC you are a Dutch)."

I am indeed Dutch. I have indeed read the Koran (long time ago), just as I have read some of the bible (also, long time ago). As I am an atheist, I consider all religions equally ridiculous/valid.

And about all the foreigners pouring into our country. That is all more heat than light. I see it as a diversion of the real problems, which are more along the lines "Private wealth and public poverty". All in all, I am glad there are still people who want to come here to work for us. That is how our wealth started in the 16th century, and how the EU keeps being ricch. That is how the US became the most powerful country on earth. That is how Australia became a developed country.

When you look at it, Belarus is a poor country full of poor people. Just as Russia still is, even with its massive natural richness. You really are the exception. Many, many fewer people migrate from the EU to Belarus or Russia than vice versa.

Pekka

Chuck schumer folded because he never had any cards Tomi. The shutdown was a mistake and Chuck realised it. And blaming it on Trump or the republicans seems hypocritical considered 2013 republicans shutdown the government to defund ACA. Now Democrats shutted down the government over daca deal not getting done.

It doesn't matter if Donald turned down the "bipartisan" deal, democrats still shut the government down over an immigration issue.

It seems leftist somehow believe a daca deal must be done. But considered Trump campaigned on ending DACA, so stop complaining if he ends it. He campaigned on ending it.

john

Welcome back Tomi to US politics!

First, I still find hard to believe that the press in US do not have the courage to call the president a LIAR. They still fall on their back that OMG is the POTUS.

Obviously, Trump is turning the clock back. Also is really unfit for POTUS and this has as effect that the far right people around him are bullshitting him. The effect is that Trump is far more conservative president than Bushes. Exactly what alt right wanted. On top of this Trump is the biggest bullshiter. Also Trumps loves to lead thru chaos by creating more chaos.

Regarding the Russia gate, Trump is guilty as hell BUT he will not be impeached for it. If Trump is impeached, it will be for some other thing that Russia, like for example obstruction of justice. I really doubt that even the dems will want to impeach a president for treason (by the way, collusion is not illegal in USA).

FIGJAM

"I am indeed Dutch. I have indeed read the Koran (long time ago), just as I have read some of the bible (also, long time ago). As I am an atheist, I consider all religions equally ridiculous/valid."

I am an agnostic and as an ex-expat who has lived and worked all over the world (my gigs lasted from a few weeks to a few months each) I have been in several Muslim countries (both rich ones and poor ones) on 2 different continents and came to know Islam and muslims pretty well, and while I too may consider all religions equallly ridiculous I do not consider them equally dangerous and harmful. As a matter of fact, most religions' teachings are quite peaceful. The one exception is, uncoincidentally, the one religion recently labelled "the religion of peace"... The other religions don't need that label and the apology that comes with it, Islam does.

"real problems, which are more along the lines "Private wealth and public poverty". All in all, I am glad there are still people who want to come here to work for us. That is how our wealth started in the 16th century, and how the EU keeps being ricch. That is how the US became the most powerful country on earth. That is how Australia became a developed country."

No, it is not.
In the 16th century you had no mass 3rd world immigration.
In the 16th century *you had no 3rd world immigration at all* .
The kind of immigration that "started your wealth" that you had from the 16th century until very recent times is the exact same kind of immigration that the US (and the exact same goes for Australia too) has historically had from its birth until the late '60 and which made that country great: WHITE European immigration.
The Netherlands got Portuguese and German Jews, French Protestants, Italian, Greek and Russian merchants, Germans and Hungarians in search of fortune and sailors from Norway and Ireland.

The ongoing mass 3rd world immigration, which is the topic here (not actually successfull white European immigration), is a monumental NET LOSS from whichever point of view you choose to look at it. Economically, socially, culturally and demographically.

Just as a quick reminder of what mass 3rd world immigration really means (this is from the 2011 report "Dutch-Moroccan Monitor 2011" produced by the Rotterdam Institute for Social Policy Research at the Erasmus University Rotterdam for the Dutch Ministry of Interior, the data were taken from the Herkenningsdienstsysteem, a nationwide database where the Dutch police register criminal suspects.): 40% of Moroccan immigrants in the Netherlands between the ages of 12 and 24 have been arrested, fined, charged or otherwise accused of committing a crime during the past five years.
In Dutch neighborhoods where the majority of residents are Moroccan immigrants, the youth crime rate reaches 50%. Moreover, juvenile delinquency among Moroccans is not limited to males; girls and young women are increasingly involved in criminal activities.
The "Dutch-Moroccan Monitor 2011" also reveals that most of the Moroccan youth involved in criminal activities were born in Holland (i.e. second generation, i.e. they are not integrating at all).
Finally, over 60% of Moroccan youths between 17 and 23 drop out of school without even a basic qualification; Moroccan youth unemployment in the Netherlands is around 40%; more than 60% of Moroccan males between ages 40 and 64 live on Dutch social welfare benefits.

"When you look at it, Belarus is a poor country full of poor people."

Yes, a poor country where a girl in a miniskirt can walk home alone through a dark park at 3 am and nothing ever happens. A poor country where even taxi drivers give you back the money that you mistakenly gave them in excess, a poor country with no muslim terrorism and above all no no-go zones and no skyrocketing violent crime stats like in the Netherlands and in the rest of the rich West.
I prefer to be rich in civility, safety, cleanliness, politeness and social harmony and cohesion rather than in money, thank you.

"Just as Russia still is, even with its massive natural richness."

I am not interested in Russia, Russia is just as doomed as the West. They have the same demographic problem as any other white country in the world: below replacement birth rates and fast growing minorities (who in their case are the Muslims from "the outskirts of the Russian Federation", as you put it). The European city with the highest number (not percentage, mind you) of Muslims is today... Moscow.

"You really are the exception. Many, many fewer people migrate from the EU to Belarus or Russia than vice versa."

I am not the exception at all. Countries like Germany, Sweden and indeed *your own* are experiencing a growing NET OUTFLOW of *natives* (i.e. REAL, ACTUAL Germans, Swede, Dutch etc) fleeing the sinking multicultural ship.
(and by the way, I already made my money, I am 43 and I retired 1.5 years ago, a lot more people would follow me to Belarus or somewhere else away from Western Europe, if they had the means to do so)

Things are only going to get worse in the West, first and foremost in North-Western Europe.
I don't imagine that you are aware of what's going on in South Africa with the Afrikaners, even though they are your flesh and blood. Well, that's a preview of what's going to happen at home...

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

One major development in the shutdown-aftermath. The funding for the Wall is off the table, by Democrats. This is via Politico who report that Chuck Schumer actually told Trump on Sunday that this part of the deal was off. That part smells a little bit. It may be that this is 'creative remembering' and would sound like Schumer was ratcheting up the pressure then on Sunday, why fold on Monday? Meanwhile, my gut says, Schumer took so much heat from his side, he had to issue this position (which he might not have wanted to, cautious negotiator) to calm down the Liberal side of his base.

Nonetheless, it now seems that the Democrats have laid down THEIR position. The immigration deal will not have money for the Wall. If they do somehow get 'any' deal that protects the 'Dreamers' even if that deal only protects them to the end of this year, but that deal has no money for Trump's Wall - then my orig analysis in the blog will hold true. This will become a MASSIVE political blunder by Trump.

I am not at all confident this is how it plays out but if it does, then yes, well played Schumer and the Democrats. Now they HAVE to not only hold on no money for the Wall (either in this immigration deal before 8 Feb, but also in the overall budget or continuing resolutions). And there HAS to be a deal on immigration. We'll see how that folds. Only a couple of weeks to go to see how it plays.

Meanwhile the drama elsewhere? White House Chief of Staff (real person with second most power in White House behind President, far far more power than VP or any Cabinet member) has now become persona-non-grata for Trump. John Kelly has been acting too much like the real king, and even suggested that Potus is just playing golf or on Twitter. Trumpie don't like that! So he's told his daughter to go find a new Chief of Staff. (Is it time for Chris Christie haha?)

And the big mushroom cloud over Trump? Mueller's investigations into Russia connection. OUCH. Just fresh news, a few hours ago, Mueller indicates that he wants to interview Trump within next 30 days, about the firing of two of his staff. Those staff have ALREADY been interviewed by Mueller. And it seems, that they have been talking, and Trump has been doing something naughty in their FIRING. (What else is new). This may grow to far more threatening dimensions for Trump by late February.... Expect more drama..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Now to replies

First Winter. Yeah, good point

"Emboldening Trump to misbehave is primarily bad for the Republicans. Note that I clearly see that this strategical bickering is bad for the US. But I do not see what other strategy could help. Obama tried to bridge the gap, but that only lead to a more dysfunctional GOP."

That is quite profound. I am reminded of Winston Churchill and their secret service (JAMES BOND!) in WW2. They had several plans to assassinate Hitler (a few early ones had already been attempted) but suddenly around 1943, Churchill ordered all plans to assassinate Hitler to be ended. They had seen that Hitler was so bad at running the war, the more he was in power, the bigger blunders Germany would make - and that in turn, would shorten the war. Smart move.

Now Trump. Same thing. We've seen his first year. Even when he should be doing his victory lap about their only big legislative achievement - the huge tax cut - Trump then goes onto jump on THAT good news story, by his shithole countries tirades and various Twitter nonsense. Now when they should have had the big 1 year anniversary party in Florida, due to HIS shutdown, he was denied Air Force One and couldn't go there to HIS party. And who is talking about tax cuts anymore? Even today, they are instead talking about the DEMOCRATS fave topic, the undocumented immigrants who are 'dreamers'. So yeah. Trump will mess up anything he does (5 casinos...)

There was the first year. THAT is when the new President gets the most done (if he/she had prepared). By now, year 2, comes the mid-term elections. This spring is still potentially 'work time' but after the Summer, it is only election-talk. So time is running out for the extreme wing of the Republicans to 'do' anything more. It makes sense for Democrats now to use whatever tricks they can to obstruct and delay the GOP and prevent them from 'damaging the country more' - assuming that the Democrats can then pick up the House in November's elections. If they can do that, then they can stop most of Trump's agenda from 2019 onwards (and frustrate him to no end)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Foobar

On dreamers. Yeah. They are the pawns in this game. But they do understand that the Republican party official position is to deport them, and Obama protected them, and the Democrats now in Trump's time, are doing their best to try to help them. This issue WILL end up 'won' by the Dreamers (for what are left of them) but the GOP may be able to get a small part of them deported before that happens.

Meanwhile this hardens the minority and youth support of DEMs against GOP. The GOP is poisoning the well into their demographic future regardless of if they're able to get 20,000 dreamers deported before the end of the year, or something like that. They can't get anything like half a million of them out before the new Congress is sworn in. And MANY in the GOP do WANT a deal. It is only the racist Trump wing of the party who want to deport all brown people.

A deal for the Dreamers (even if only 1 year deal) would be best.

What would be second-best (for Dreamers) is a collapse of Trump's support and/or a rift inside his base voters. If he hears from part of his base, that wait - we don't want THIS or - you're going too far - then those 'normal' Republicans in Congress could come onboard and force Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to let an independent immigration bill get a vote - and it would pass. The reason the two leaders are holding the line, is because they sense this is their political gain (to keep their base from going into revolution mode)

I don't see any way that ANY legislative action and positions on either side, could erode 'significantly' the support the Dreamers have. If that is 80% or 70% or whatever, it is MASSIVE in favor of letting them stay vs deporting them. So the calculation of 'maybe their case will suffer' is not going to really matter. This is a 'winning' argument strongly for DEMs in November and help them pick up a lot of seats.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

So then on the Russia investigation.

This is how I am guessing eventually, when all is said and done, we'll find out rougly what happened.

First off. Trump's past-due loans of several hundred millions were held by Deutsche Bank, who then passed those loans to Putin's bank. Nothing inherently illegal about Trump owing say $300M to DB, but that he could not pay, tells us he's no Billionaire, he was hundreds of millions in the hole. That revellation will be a nasty hit to his credibility on anything.

The fact Trump owed several hundred million to ANY foreign bank should have been an absolute barrier to him ever becoming a nominee for President (or any high office) far less win the election - but that in itself is not illegal.

The transfer of the loan from DB to Putin's bank probably happened before the sanctions from Crimea were slapped onto Putin's bank. So probably nothing illegal in that transaction.

BUT if Trump interacted in any way with Putin's bank when it was in sanctions - that is a major crime for which top managements go to prison. And we know the bank had its New York office in Trump Towers, the NY building where Trump's personal residence is. And that there was a 'direct email link' between Trump and the Russian bank. I believe this is where the 'Russian connection' generic illegality starts. And I believe Mueller already has this evidence secured (he has hired a special investigator onto his team, who just does cyber crime). That is BEFORE the election stuff.

Then there is the election meddling. That is a foreign government interfering with a US election. If anyone on Trump's team assisted in any way that foreign entity, that person is doing treason. And will be in prison. This smells to me, that it includes Trump's adorable Neo-Nazi children.

But if there is MONEY that came from Putin to Trump's election - THAT is a massive election fraud foreign government impact of ENORMOUS size - which hits Trump personally. And there is at least some reporting, that apparently some monies arrived from Russia to the Trump campaign, including a month before election day. This alone will sink Trump and land him in prison. There is no way any Republican can stand by Trump if he knowingly took millions of dollars from Putin, to be able to fight his election battle against Hillary.

Beyond this, it then gets REAL nasty. There is CLEAR evidence from BEHAVIOR, that the early Trump transition-team, and early Trump administration, acted in ways that were favorable to Putin. From Ukraine/Crimea and NATO, to Syria, to the actual sanctions against Putin, and those close to Putin like oil and banking tycoons of Russia. I cannot imagine these happening 'randomly' and without ANY paper trail. Rather, I would expect there were plenty of internal paperwork talking about how and what to do.

THAT will be political suicide dynamite. I could imagine literally, that Trump commits suicide as those stories come out. If you remember the live TV appearance of Nixon when he resigned, that image comes vividly to mind now. Except this is 100x worse than Watergate was to Nixon.

If Trump 'just took money' from Putin, as purely a business loan transaction, with NO quid-pro-quo whatsover, then he might be able to survive it. If he acted in any way against US interests and in favor of Russian interests, or even just DISCUSSED such moves, motivated by the money that came in - then he is so screwed, he'll become the official mascot of the American Screw Association haha.

And my gut says, all that happened. PLUS of course, Mr Stable Genius, then acted in numerous stupid ways to try to cover up the criminal behavior.

I do hope this comes out SOON, and that it ALL comes out. And the next President will not pardon Trump. (VP Pence, haha). I do hope Trump does not commit suicide, or die of heart attack.

PS wouldn't it be funny, if it emerges that one of the ploys hatched up by Trump and Putin (eg via nutter General Flynn, already interviewed by Mueller and granted immunity) - is that Putin would send some of his KGB thugs to create a terrorist attack to the USA in around September, October, that can be blamed on Muslims - so that both the next election is a victory for the GOP, and Trump's popularity would rise as always Americans rally around their President when there is such an attack. I am CERTAIN this has been entertained as a thought by some of the darker minds around Trump. Wouldn't it be funny if there is evidence on record that this happened and Trump welcomed such ideas........

The Mueller investigation certainly seems to be moving into a direction, that ends with Trump behind bars. GOOD..

Ok, now for more comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayneborean


Tomi,

Forgot to mention CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program). Part of the deal was CHIP funding. This takes a weapon out off the Republican’s hands.

That’s one of the reasons I think that the Democrats won.

Wayneborean


I never expected that Trump would actually last a year. The last two days reporting on Trump-Russia makes me think I wasn’t too far off. It looks like the only Trump staffer who hasn’t sold out Trump is some leftover from the Eisenhower days still working in the basement of the White House because everyone has forgot him/her.

ピコ太郎

@Tomi

Are you sure Russia/Putin behind trump?
Could it be Trump play DB & Russia bank?
Or perhaps Netanyahu paying the billing behind the scene?

It seems Netanyahu is the winning of trump situation, and Russia in hot water

Winter

Tomi

Voices are starting to be raised that try to tell the GOP that this "victory" might not be the victory they want:
https://thefederalist.com/2018/01/23/schumer-shutdown-shows-mcconnell-will-give-democrats-deals-wont-give-republicans/

On the other hand, all this jubilation about how the Republicans won starts to sound a little hollow. Why is this such a big, big deal? Why are the Republicans so keen on labeling Schumer unfit to lead the Democrats? If your mortal enemy tells you your leader is bad for you, what would you think?

As I understand it (which might be completely wrong), the support for DACA is very strong. Well over 70% of the population wants the dreamers to stay. This means that few Republican senators would want to vote to deport them. Such a vote could come back to haunt them this fall. Which means that if a vote would come up in the senate, the dreamers would most likely get to stay. On the other hand, any legislation that would let the dreamers stay would be considered a "WIN" for the Democrats. With the elections in sight, the Republicans would want to prevent such a win for the Democrats at all costs. So, I cannot see how this would actually come up to a vote.

Which means that the Democrats have everything lined up for a new shutdown stare down.

Wayneborean


Guess what folks? Donald Trump is blaming Samsung!

https://twitter.com/RealDonad_Trump/status/956012770293616640?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Em5%7Ctwgr%5Eemail%7Ctwcon%5E7046%7Ctwterm%5E3

Guess Korea is one of those shithole countries.

ピコ太郎

https://www.rt.com/usa/416903-trump-mueller-under-oath/

Trump ‘looking forward’ to under-oath meeting with Mueller – report

Wayneborean


Yes, that’s been reported on and off for a month or so now. What does it mean?

1) The reporting may be wrong.
2) The reporting may be accurate, and Trump 100% innocent.
3) The reporting may be accurate, and Trump thinks he can snow Mueller.
4) Something else altogether.

Popcorn time! 🍿

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

On shutdown aftermath. It was so short, it is near impossible to even pin-point its effect in terms of the polling. But there are now a bunch of polls out which did their polling partly during that brief shutdown. And polling from now onwards will mostly or totally be conducted after the shutdown was ended and with newer things on voters' minds.

So lets close this matter. What happened? Trump polling is up to 40.1% (movement of 0.2 points) and the generic vote Democrats vs Republicans moved into the Democrats' favor and is at 7.9% (movement of 0.3 points). Both of these are much too small to matter, are easily within normal daily/weekly 'noise' and could simply be rounding off errors. So net result? No change. Shutdown was too short to have any meaninful impact even in the daily polling measurements.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

As to political aftermath..

Trump has issued a weird statement. He not only is ready for legalization of the 'Dreamers' he actually now talks of amnesty to them, of a path to citizenship that would happen in 10-12 years. Trump also says he has the right to extend Obama's 'DACA' executive order which grants temporary safety to those Dreamers that they cannot be deported in the interim (DACA expires early March). Trump of course ALSO says he wants money for his wall, and he wants more money for border security. Ok...

If THAT deal goes to the Democrats, they will take it. The votes are there immediately on the Democrat side to give Trump some money for his wall, if this means citizenship to the Dreamers and an extension of DACA before that. A deal is a compromise and some money for Trump's Wall is a small price to pay for that.

But the RIGHT WING of the Republicans would be angry as hell because of the citizenship part. Some kind of junior non-citizen (non-voting) second-class citizen condition for these Dreamers, some on the right would have been willing to accept that, in trade for the Wall and other 'strong' measures about the border, but total capitulation? Amnesty? Citizenship? THAT is 'betrayal' and....

Now votes? In the Senate there are plenty of votes on the GOP side to make this deal work. In the House, it is possible that Paul Ryan simply won't bring the deal to a vote (and then no law can pass). It would be a position Ryan has left open to himself when the shutdown ended. There are probably enough Republican moderate votes in the House, that with all Democrats, they'd get the law passed - to furious protests by the Tea Party - but Ryan MAY just hold the vote and not let it happen. And there can be a private deal between Ryan and Trump, that they will play good-cop/bad-cop on this. Trump gets some of the good will of attempting a deal, and Ryan proves to the base, that he's their guy, and won't let it come to a vote. This way the REPUBLICAN party's base voters are suddenly very eager to come and vote in November, fearing that the brown people will be given full citizenship, unless they do keep the House in GOP hands.... I would not be surprised if this kind of good-cop/bad-cop play had been staged by GOP leadership when they met.

Now onto citizenship to illegals? ....this WAS Trump's original position on immigration way way WAY long ago, back around before he started to run for office. This is kind of 'the real Trump coming out'.

Here is how I read it - first, a 'grand bargain' vs the minimalist least deal - tends to favor BOTH SIDES (much as I hate it, yes this would benefit Trump's image). But the Democrats would also benefit in a big(ly) way. What is funny (and one could say fair) is that if Trump DOES get this deal passed (amnesty/citizenship and the Wall) then the GOP rescues some popularity among the Hispanic vote. MOST will know, this was a fight carried by Democrats. BUT some will fall prey to the propaganda that Obama failed, and only the Republican President was able to deliver the citizenship to the Dreamers. This would actually be a relatively smart way to get out of the hole that the GOP has dug itself into...

Now on more immediate issues. One, Trump changes his mind by the hour. This deal was floated and it probably will also float away and nothing comes out of it.

Two. On WHY would Trump be 'allowed' to say this? I think his Nazi White Supremacist White House Chief of Staff is effectively fired and Trump no longer lets him talk, as they seek his replacement. This is similar to when Trump fired a series of Campaign Managers if you remember. Then we get suddenly a totally different 'New Trump' and we certainly have seen a series of New Trumps in the past two and a half years. I think, the ultra-Nazi position/s on immigration are now gone. Trump feels he got murderously bad advice from his Chief of Staff, specifically on immigration. He now has 'fired' that Chief of Staff, and will instead rely on Trump's own gut, on what to do. And he wants this deal. He really hated what he saw on TV when he was stuck in the White House last weekend and was forced to watch clips of himself saying all those things - plus listening to all that advice.

Oh, one MORE thing. Why NOW? The immediate Monday propaganda was 'war war war' (about immigration issues) but suddenly we see kinder-gentler Trump now, on Thursday? What happened?

The Pennsylvania special election. Very small tidbit in the sea of political news, but in a VERY heavily gerrymandered, VERY safe GOP seat, in Pennsylvania's local Senate election, a Republican had run far ahead of the Democrat. Then the race came close, and Trump joined in and supported the local guy, even had an event in person in Pennsylvania. That result came in - the Democrat won by 15 POINTS !!!!

It is special election number 31 out of 35 so far, that the Democrats have won (they should have been about 50/50). And of the 4 that the GOP has won, in all of those, the Democrats picked up huge points, on average about 15 point gain in the four elections they lost (vs last time). Note this Pennylvania election vote MARGIN was +15 to the Democrat, in what should have been -10% or more, so the REAL gain now is nearer +25% for the Democrats. And this is 'Trump county'... This is Pennylvania, a blue state, that Trump was able to win in 2016. This is the BASE of Trump Democrats, those in the middle who were taken in by Trump's promises. And Trump PERSONALLY went to PA to campaign for this guy who now lost. That is worse than what happened in Alabama's Senator election where Trump didn't support the guy.

Now Trump kind of 'knows' that they are losing massively the upcoming House vote. And that his own personality cannot help rescue drowning Republicans. The pattern is VERY VERY strong, 31 of 35 special elections lost since Trump took office. November is going to be a bloodbath. And even for his 'magic' in elections and his 'cult' of followers, Trump lost 'his man' in Penna on Tuesday night. THAT is probably a lot on Trump's mind and the mind of Republican leaders.

The EXTREME wing has been in power (White House Chief of Staff) and Trump had played 'that role' for many months including the shutdown. THAT role isn't working and is counter-productive. A kinder-gentler Trump COULD work and taking that change from Reagan, he campaigned as an extremist, but he governed as a near-centrist, mild Conservative - THAT model could work - or Trump could be testing the waters, of should he try this model instead. He does hate it that his popularity is the worst it has been for any President at the 1 year mark... no doubt he heard THAT too on all TV channels last weekend, when he had nothing else to do, and ended up watching MUCH MORE than just Fox TV haha...

Am I optimistic about a reasonable resolution? Yes. Should we assign optimism to possibilities with Trump, no. Of course not. This is one fleeting sign of hope, drowning in a sea of Trumpian nastyness, not least, next up in Davos where his minions have already sketched out a path for weird unconventional(ly bad) policies like lets tank the US Dollar's value haha. That should not go particularly well to an economic/business audience.. And ANY hints of the US government deliberately wanting to devalue the dollar, would mean an instant run on the dollar investments where major banks holding dollars will start swap them out for Euros, Yen, the RMB of China and currencies like Swiss Franks etc (probably not UK pounds this time haha). So if Trump really says that in Davos, gosh we could see the US dollar down 10% by next week.. Can anyone spell Zimbabwe?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

The Real Cause of the Last Government Shutdown—and the Next One
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/why-the-government-shut-down/551402/

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati