Q4 Preliminary Estimate of Nokia HMD Quarterly Sales is 5.4M and full year 2017 ends at 9.7M

Now that we have the first solid number for Nokia HMD Q3 sales level, at 2.8 million, via Counterpoint that I mentioned on the blog already, we can start to make some preliminary estimates of Nokia's Christmas quarter 2017 sales performance based on some numbers not just my wild guesses....

We have so far only had 1 source (not confirmed by HMD or Nokia) for data on Q1 and H1 (thus also Q2) sales (IDC) and now Counterpoint is the only source for Q3 data. This is still very rough. But they suggest Nokia sold this level of smartphones in the first three quarters:

Nokia HMD Actual Sales First 9 Months 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones
Sources: IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

That gives us the makings of a rough trend line. Then you have to assume what you think is the logic on those first three data points. If we say there is linear growth, that the next period grows at the same linear rate as previous, we get to 4.2 million sales level for Q4. If you rather use a growth rate (and they doubled sales from Q2 to Q3) then you'd double it again to 5.6 million (or take any accelerating or decelerating factor into that assumption to change that number further). And a third method would be to use our rough analysis on this blog, the number of carriers reported by our crowd-sourced search of carriers supporting Nokia smartphone brand. By that way, there should be a 50% increase above the sales levels of Q3, which is 4.2 million. Any of these is reasonable and you can have other ways to analyze that data as well. But as any of these is a plausible method, lets just take their mathematical average, and to derive at 4.7 million as our rough number. 

That ignores the fact that the MARKET also grows for the Christmas period and that Nokia/HMD did not have significant advertising in the previous periods but did have ads in many of its markets and even expensive TV ads in some markets. The recent history has had roughly 15% growth from Q3 to Q4, in the overall market. This is the annual Christmas season bump, which is not visible on the first 3 data points we had for Nokia HMD numbers when the natural growth is only a few percentage points vs the previous quarter. So we could/should add a factor to the 4.7 million to reflect the Christmas season. Lets take that 15% and add that in, and we get 5.4 million. This is a number I am willing to say as my official preliminary estimate of Nokia HMD smartphone Q4 sales. So we get this as my estimate for the first year of Nokia HMD sales:

NOKIA HMD SMARTPHONE SALES FULL YEAR 2017 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones*
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones*
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones**
Q4 . . . 5.4 million smartphones***
2017 . 9.7 million smartphones***
Sources: * IDC and ** Counterpoint, *** is estimate by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

So that is my best guess on the early data we had. at 5.4 million units this ongoing October-December Quarter ie Q4, Nokia brand smartphones via HMD have about a 1.2% market share of all smartphones worldwide. Their global footprint among carriers is still growing, so this number should keep growing at least through Q1 and possibly into Q2 out of simply adding retail reach to their brand. In total sales, they are tantalizingly close to 10 million. If they do 5.4 million smartphones per quarter currently (1.8 million per month) they are doing 60,000 phones sold per day and would hit 420,000 phones sold in a week. They would be breaching the 10 million unit sales level within the first week of the new year and would pass 10 million cumulative sales inside of 12 months from launch but it would be very close.

As I've said several times before, that moment of when Nokia HMD sell their 10 millionth smartphone is going to happen near the turn of the year, and looks like first week of 2018. I hope they do mark the occasion whenever it is and celebrate their milestone (and that would give us also a direct verification of the math that we've been using now for several quarters from very limited sources).

With that, have a great new year to all our readers and all over at Nokia and HMD

Comments

[Abdul Muis]

Nokia 1 will bring entry-level specs and a price to match. The device is slated to have 1 GB of RAM and 8 GB of storage. Luckily, it will also have a microSD card slot for expandable storage. The display is rumored to have a 720p resolution, but we’ve yet to get info on how big it is. When it launches, the Nokia 1 should come in somewhere between €70-€80, which translate to $83-$95.

[NobodyMakesMoneyWithAndroid]

Haha.

Very good.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Abdul

Thanks! Yeah, I expect the Nokia 1 will be priced to hit almost exactly $99 (but hoping it will be lower like you were thinking).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Jim Glue]

OK....I am convinced. "Nokia" is rising from the ashes as a quality brand offering good quality at decent prices. They are also delivering on their promise to keep their phones running the latest Android. They are on a growth trajectory that I predict will accelerate.

I remain unconvinced, but hopeful, that they can return to being competitive at the high end. I do not think their first effort was successful.

So...who are Nokia taking sales away from? This will be the story I am most interested in following. I think it will be those that do not have the strong brand. Some from Samsung, but I think Samsung's brand is fairly strong in it's own right. I think Nokia will take most of it's sales away from Huwaie, Xiaomi and the other Chinese as they try to extend their reach outside of China. If HMD/Nokia grows fast enough, they might even help preserve Apple as the number 2 player.

[John A]

Saw some rumors that we might see a 4G version of Nokia 3310 soon. Still a featurephone but with slightly more functions etc..I think HMD Global (the new Nokia)take sales a lot from LG, HTC and Sony. Some from Samsung also, but they are so big so it would not matter so much for Samsung in the short perspective. Sony make a lot of camera sensors to other brands so I think they keep their mobile division alive for that reason.

But I would not be suprised if LG or HTC will pulling out from the mobile market. 2018 will be a interesting year in the smartphone war.

[Abdul Muis]

Tomi,

I was wondering how serious is Apple trouble is... Maybe you would shed some words about EU law.

http://bgr.com/2017/12/28/iphone-battery-crime-france-lawsuit/
Apple execs could face jail in France for slowing down older iPhones

"As for potential penalties, the law in France holds that the punishment for planned obsolescence is a fine of 300,000 euros, 5% of annual sales, and a maximum prison sentence of two years in prison."

[Marriam]

https://www.phonearena.com/news/Android-or-iPhone-What-do-you-have-and-would-you-like-to-switch_id101086
Good statistic phonearena.com

Phonearena visitor 72% Android - 28% iPhone
8.5% (of 72%) android user want to buy iPhone
10% (of 28%) iPhone user want to buy Android

iPhone lost user 1.5% (of 100% smartphone owner)

[Phil W]

Abdul, I do think that Apple could have avoided the furore if it had told people what it was doing and why and provided a software switch giving an option to disable the feature if desired. But I guess that is not Apple's way.

[Abdul Muis]

Tomi,

https://www.gizmochina.com/2017/12/29/huawei-shipped-153-million-smartphones-year-confirms-ceo/

Huawei is currently the world’s third largest smartphone manufacturer and it aims to gain the number one spot by 2021. In 2016, Huawei had shipped 139 million phones. According to Hu, by shipping 153 million units of Huawei and Honor branded phone this year, the company’s market share has surpassed 10 percent.

[Abdul Muis]

Phill W,

iUser don't like to think and want Apple to decide for them..... according to Apple. I really wondering if Tim Cook will serve a jail time in France..... that would be.... Epic.

[Abdul Muis]

@Marriam

WOW...
That's mean 30% of iPhone user want to change to android...
And only 12% of Android user want to change to iPhone...

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Marriam:

If those numbers are true, that is indeed another cloud on Apples horizon.

However, it seems to just be an online poll, and as such, not to be taken seriously. As with all online polls.

It would be interesting to see these kind of statistics from a carrier store or something like that, but as always... Be careful with your statistics.

[Tester]

I have to agree with PWE: That poll is to be taken with a grain of salt.

It still warrants the question whether Apple's antics to ensure customer retention are continuing to work or slowly start driving away customers.
The one thing I can say for certain is that the non-Apple users I know are driven further away by all that is happening. Apple is simply doing nothing to grow their customer base in a significant manner.

[Abdul Muis]

I think the number is good enough.

According to that poll, apple lost 1.5% (in percentage). If you put some error, let say 1% error. Still make sense.

What surprise me is the swing number.
Eventhough the same number of android user defect to apple as apple user defect to android the percentage of non-loyal apple seems higher because apple have less user. This not inline with Jim idea that apple have the highest loyal user.

[Wayneborean]

Abdul,

As a phone geek, you expect everyone else to act like a phone geek. Sorry, they don’t. That site caters to phone geeks, which skews the results badly. Instead let’s look at a different set of numbers.

World’s most admired companies as polled by Fortune
http://fortune.com/worlds-most-admired-companies/

Forbes has Apple at 20th place
https://www.forbes.com/sites/karstenstrauss/2017/02/28/the-worlds-most-reputable-companies-in-2017/#4ca3d63f2fe3

Barron’s has Apple in 2nd
https://www.rankingthebrands.com/The-Brand-Rankings.aspx?rankingID=307&nav=category

Even better Barron’s has a list of Apple’s rankings from other groups back to 2006!
https://www.rankingthebrands.com/Brand-detail.aspx?brandID=8

Most Apple AND Android users don’t give a damn what us phone geeks think. They want something that will solve their need (communications hardware) in a useful, and fun way.

So that particular poll is useless, as evidenced by lots of real world polls.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Abdul:

I'm with Wayne here, Apple has a fiercely loyal customer base that would defend even the iTurd for several generations before finally throwing in the towel. It's almost like a religion at this point. Even Tomi agrees the loyalty base is a thing.

So yes, Apple is a plane out of fuel, but not out of altitude and it can very well still make a nice glide landing. The descent will be slow, it will have ups and downs, but just like a rollercoaster - Peak Apple is a thing, too.

[John A]

I agree that iPhone users are very loyal. But the recent ”battery gate” had a very negative PR aspect for the company.

From a technical side it seems that we might see fingerprintsensors under glass with some brands in 2018. And Apple have decided that we will use face-ID insted, even if some people dont like that as the only solution. Apple are probably to stubborn to add a fingerprint sensor in the back.

So that decision might switch buyers in a upgrade process go for a Samsung Galaxy S9 instead for the iPhone X. Or the Nokia 9 upcoming flagship in 2018.

[Abdul Muis]

Guys,

Sorry for the 'surprising math'.

Let me explain.
Let say apple now have 600 million user, and android 2 billion user.

If apple got 100 million user from android
And android got 80 million user from apple.
Apple win 20 million new user.

But we could say 80 out of 600 (13%) of apple user defect to android while ONLY 100 out of 2000 (5%) android user defect to apple.

LOL...
I know this is a bad way to read stats.
But it could means that current survey that think apple user more loyal perhaps need a rethink

[Wayneborean]

Abdul,

You are missing the point. The survey you quoted is incredibly flawed, and cannot be relied on as a guide to what the average smart phone user will do.

Remember we are talking the AVERAGE user. We aren’t average. We know about phone the strengths and weaknesses of the various manufacturers. Joe and Jane Average don’t have a clue, and don’t think like we do.

[Murphy]

To Abdul,

Even if you realise that this switcher survey is less than useless you are still trying to invent numbers in order to celebrate yet another imagined deficit in the iPhone strategy. Possibly for the same reason that you'd like to see Tim cook in jail?

Try and be a bit more objective. You are missing the elephant in the room. There is a massive price differential between iPhone owners and Android powered smartphone owners. There are probably a billion or even more Android users who won't be switching to iPhones any time soon, whether they want to or not, simply because they can't afford one. On the other hand ALL iPhone users could switch to Android if they wanted to. That changes the maths considerably.

If you are really interested in this check out Ericsson's Mobility Report from a couple of years ago. (Spoiler: roughly 5% iOS to Android switchers. 4% the other way.