Awaiting Last Quarter Data: Notes From Smartphone Wars Just Before Xmas

Merry Christmastime to all our readers. Remember, Santa comes from Finland not from the North Pole...
Some notes from the Smartphone wars as we start to await data about the last quarter of the year.

India (world's second largest smartphone market, behind China ahead of USA). India instituted a 5% tax increase to imported smartphones. So most iPhones all Lenovos/Motorolas but no Samsungs are touched by this tax change. There are several domestic brands like Micromax & Karbonn who should find some assistance from their rival prices being forced to be raised. Some brands like Vivo, Oppo & Xiaomi of China decided not to raise prices in India and absorbed the price increase. Apple passed 3.5% of the tax onto its customers by raising the prices of all of its top end and medium price iPhones (the SE model is manufactured locally in India and is excempt from the tax rise). So expect India to see some shifts unrelated to the overall market trends due to the tax change. If it hurts Apple in India, that would be a gain to Samsung in India..

Talking about Apple. In its home market the USA, Apple will be seeing a new strong rival as Huawei has scored carrier deals and will expand its offering but this will only happen next year. Spells some more trouble for Apple back home and a - shall we say - more challenging year for 2018. But this won't impact now Q4 sales of course.

Talking of Q4 sales, remember we have our Nokia HMD comeback blog where we collect info about the various countries and carrier support. I just visited the three Finnish operators/carrier websites and their monthly reports of their bestselling phone models. Nokia HMD has climbed into the Top 10 for one carrier (DNA) and is inside the Top 15 bestselling phone models on two carriers (2 models at DNA, 1 model right at the bottom for Elisa). The third operator formerly known as Sonera, ie Telia, only reports a Top 10 and they don't yet list Nokia inside the Top 10. Based on the models (most are Samsungs, Huaweis & iPhones) I estimate the November Finland market brands in smartphones to be 1 Samsung, 2 Apple, 3 Huawei, 4 OnePlus and 5 Nokia HMD. Nokia brand is growing and has advertising in Finland, so for December expect better performance but this is a quarter (October-to-December) so the lesser performance in October will mostly balance out any improvements in December. In very rough terms, expect Nokia currently to be ranked 5th in its home market in Finland for the Christmas Quarter. On par with what we expected toward the end of the year. Top 5 in Finland is a long way from being Top 5 in Europe or around the world haha...

Then about China. Digitimes does often excellent analysis of smartphone market and especially the China market (they are based out of Taiwan). They report that 3 of the big Chinese brands, Vivo, Huawei & Oppo are reducing production by 10%. This is a strong signal of weak or at least sluggish sales for those producers and a soft market in China (worlds largest smartphone market). Xiaomi is not reporting a reduction according to Digitimes. Separately Samsung had been reporting strong sales recently and is reportedly rushing out their next flagship release to be one month earlier than usual, so the boys in Gangnam seem to be feeling optimistic and sensing strong sales. Apple meanwhile haha, well, the news is all over the place with some rumors saying X is not maintaining its price level others saying iPhone is slowing, others say they can't sell all the demand would ask and still other articles saying X is not even achieving balance of supply matching demand until in the new year. Take that mess as 'anything goes'. Some think iPhone sales will be down, others think iPhone sales will be up. Haha. I can't help you with that yet, as we really don't have good numbers to go by. Kantar only gives numbers to October, I'll wait until we see November numbers from Kantar that can give some realistic view of what the market shapes up for Xmas (relating to iPhone in select markets)

LG replaced its handset boss (10 quarters of losses in the unit). I read this as the possible sign of 'this is the last chance'. If the new boss can't quickly turn LG's smartphone unit back into profits (say 1 year) then its quite possible LG will sell its unit. And note, this could be ALREADY the moment when LG decided to let go, and the new boss might be there to 'fatten the cow' before it is sold. That is not definite, but I think those are typical moves large corporations make, when a key unit refuses to return to profits.

That is all I'm seeing now, please add what you found into the comments.. Full Q4 and full-year 2017 Top 10 stats will be on this blog of course, but in February when all the major sources have released their numbers. But we DO know the Top 5 largest smartphone makers of year 2017 of course. Once again this was the first source anywhere to report the final year top 5 rankings as always. All the best stats, first and most, here on the CDB blog.

Comments

[Jim Glue]

I doubt that Apple will take a hit from Xiaomi and Hauwei in the US. Android already owns the price sensitive part of the US market. There have been plenty of cheap Android phones for years, they do well. Android sells a bit more than the iPhone in the US. Now SAMSUNG...Samsung will feel the pain.

Looking forward to the quarter results, particularly out of China.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Jim

You're ignoring history. In the USA, in 2012 iPhone had 47% in the October period by Kantar. Tied with Android. By 2015 they were at 41%. Now the latest October period iPhone is at 35% in the USA. Who took that if not Android rivals? Obviously Apple is feeling the heat also in its own market and the damage is exactly same PATTERN as in the world and the winner is Android. Now when the world's third-largest smartphone brand gets carrier support in Apple's home market - of COURSE it will hurt Apple. But it hurts other brands strong in the USA as well, including yes Samsung (and what is of Motorola etc).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Jim Glue]

The US is pretty much Apple and Samsung. And I wouldn't go by Oct's time frame for Apple's average market share. It's always lowest right before the new release.

Time will tell.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Wow Jim..

I picked October because it is the latest period that Kantar reports. It is THE SAME PATTERN every period Kantar reports AND YOU KNOW THIS

I'm in no mood for you playing games. You KNOW Apple market share in USA has fallen in the past 5 years - STEADILY

And you KNOW that the winner was Android

I just got rid of one of our pests on this blog. Don't turn into another. I won't tolerate you pretending you don't know this, and hiding behind some bullshit

Tomi Ahonen

[Huber]

What about the new Pixel 2/ Pixel 2 XL from Google?

Last year's models were a rounding error in market share, but this year I see TV ads and major carriers and resellers selling and promoting them - at least in Germany.

So will Google get some more market share this year, or is it all the same again?

[Wayneborean]

@Huber,

It will depend upon how the phones are sold. But I’ll bet that Google won’t sell huge numbers. Which is not the same as profitable numbers, assuming profits are Google’s game. They could be pushing Samsung and Huawei into providing current releases of Android...

[John A]

The Indian market will be interesting for Nokia. As I understand all Nokia devices are made localy there. Same in Indonesia. So they will avoid the import taxes in those countries.

[Abdul Muis]

@John A,

For Indonesia,
Nokia need to make the phone in Indonesia
The Indonesian govt BANNING the import of 4G smartphone.
The new elected president is nationalist protectionism.

[Huber]

The first lawsuits against Apple have been filed after it turned out that Apple deliberately slowed down older iPhones when updates were applied:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/days-after-iphone-battery-fiasco-lawsuits-against-apple-begin-to-mount/

[Abdul Muis]

iphone Q4 sales....

Sinolink Securities analyst Zhang Bin said in a report on Monday that handset shipments in the period might be as low as 35 million, or 10 million less than he previously estimated.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi all

Flurry data is out for the Xmas week activations. Their data sees apps and activations via those on 2.1B devices (smartphones+tablets) vs just 3.3B smartphones already in use. Obviously for consumers who don't install apps, those type of consumers are invisible to Flurry. Their measurement technology skews towards USA and rich world. But it is still a massive while skewed sample. They saw Xmas week activations led by Apple. Apple was flat vs last year. Second place was Samsung, up massively vs 2016. And third rank went to Huawei, also up a lot vs last year. Seems like Apple could expect a performance for Q4 of roughly similar to year 2016 in Q4. But Sammy and Huawei could expect a big Christmas bonus..

Also smartphone/tablet ratio in new activations was 88/12. The smartphone screen size statistic has large screens now being the majority of new phone activations. The ratio of phablet screen sizes (above 5 inches) vs smaller is now 60/40 (was reverse last year this time).

Here link to Flurry

http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/168998333465/apple-wins-2017-smartphone-holiday-season

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Jim Glue]

5% up from last year, I wouldn't call that massive. It's also the result of last year's exploding-phone recall and eventual canceling of the entire Note 7 line. I'm actually surprised at how small a percentage of Samsung's unit sales it's best smartphone is. Still, clearly the exploding phone did no long term damage to Samsung's brand.

I think we are also seeing Apple's extended iPhone line up in full display. From the $349 iPhone SE to the $1150 iPhone X (256gb storage). Apple's sales are across 10 different models. The two best sellers being the iPhone 7 and iPhone 6...THEN the iPhone X. The 8's don't come next, the iPhone 6s and 7Plus do.

Of course this is Apple's time of year and these are Apple's kinds of customers (download apps). Still, 44%...almost HALF. I wonder if flurry gives calendar year breakdowns. Would go a lot further to explaining how the iOS ecosystem still reigns despite 14% total unit market share.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Jim:

This is Apple we're talking about here.

Apple.

You know, the company with the most healthy App economy, and the most app-savvy users? The company who have a higher percentage of app users than anything else?

Thus... These numbers mean one of two things, both suck for Apple.

One, Apple units will be flat for the year, and market share will dip slightly below or just barely maintain 14%. This means Apple growth has ended.

Two, Apple are starting to attract less App-savvy customers. Which, well, means the App store will matter less and less as time goes on.

So either way you cut it, Apple is in for a rough quarter. But sure, one bad quarter does not mean they will not recover... :)

[Jim Glue]

Doesn't mean any of those things. The same percentage of a LARGER market means growth occurred (at the market rate). Apple always has amazing 4th quarters...I am not expecting a huge jump from Apple's peak qtr. Nor am I expecting an end to Apple's unit market share decline until the end of the transition of dumb phone to smartphone is over.

I was also not expecting the iPhone X to do so nearly well at the price. But we are still in the "early adopter" phase of the year. These are Apple's most devoted and passionate customers, the type who line up around the world to get the newest iPhone. But look at the iPhone 7 and 6 percentage of sales. These are the value oriented customers and those are the ones that will either slow Apple's market share descent or even raise it over the next 2 quarters.

I see nobody taking Apple's premium customers away. And here is Apple successfully moving down market in price.

Samsung, meanwhile, only eked out a 5% grab of share in a comparison to a year ago when they had canceled the Note 7.

[Jim Glue]

Let's take a crack at the "battery gate" affair. It's one of those things that confirm in the Apple hater's and Apple lover's minds. Same fact, different reactions.

Here's the facts. Lithium Ion batteries do not last forever. The average lifespan of an iPhone is longer than the average lifespan of ANY such battery. Apple customers were experiencing and complaining about their phones shutting down while the batter indicator said there was more life. It's about peak usage and the iPhone shutting itself down when there was a chance of damaging the phone when there wasn't power sufficient to the peak power need.

Those are the base facts. They aren't different than any other smartphone with sealed batteries. Not. At. All.

Apple added code to detect the battery situation and then slow down the processor as a way to avoid the phone shutting down and extending it's useful life.

The rest are opinions. I think this is smart and am glad Apple did it, and I expect Android phones to follow. Others will view this as Apple trying to force it's user's to upgrade. Stupid logic, but it's that kind of logic that separates those who hate and love Apple.

Now, I agree that sliding this change in with no indication whatsoever of what was going on was a very Apple-ish thing to do and another reason why some hate Apple, and some love Apple. iOS is the "just works" device and Android is the "tweak anything and everything you want" device. Apple customers appreciate that they don't have to make such decisions, Android fans hate that anyone would control or limit their choices.

I love how Apple has responded. They apologized, clarified, are changing their code AND are offering a steeply discounted price for upgrading the battery. If your OnePlus with sealed battery needs a change...how do you know and where do you go? I will just go to my local Apple store. Two of my kids had already received free out-of-warranty battery replacements so their phones are fine. My wife and my phone...we will wait for the new pricing to kick in and then get the batteries replaced.

I wonder if this whole controversy will usher back in the era of the user accessible and changeable battery?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Jim:

We are in agreement. Premium Apple customers will not move to a different platform. Why would they? But Apple will not gain very many new customers either, and they will lose those non-premium users slowly but surely.

And based on current reports, Apple would see a very modest to flat growth, probably come in right under 225M in units (e.g. 4% growth if that even) and still down in market share for this year. And then next year will require a miracle if Apple isn't going to start going downhill. Maybe a mere 5% downhill, but still downhill. It all rests on how great this quarter will be.

And finally, Samsung went up from 21% to 26% e.g. a 25% increase, and Android holds an impressive 56% of all Christmas activations.

[Jim Glue]

Hi Per,

I'm still looking at the current quarter. The year total is mostly about the run of the 7/7Plus. Third year in a row without a change in format. And still Apple grew sales. The 6s, Apple's first down year flag ship, did not turn out to be the start of a trend...rather the hangover from the spectacular run of the 6/6+ (Apple's first large screen phones, long over due).

This coming year is about both the up market iPhone X (with stellar start given it's high price points) -- AND -- Apple's deepest foray yet with pricing. From $350 - to $1150, Apple has 8 models covering the widest price array yet. And from the numbers we were just given...apparently seeing good success in selling the older/less expensive models.

So I see nothing in the current Android lineup that is going to move the needle against Apple at the high end, and Apple reaching further down market than ever. Folks not wanting to pay the highest prices have more options to stay with Apple than ever.

Market share will continue to decline, sure. $349 is still well above the ASP of an Android phone...near double. Android's growth is coming the even lower price tiers.

I'll take the over on the 80M unit sales of iPhones this quarter and will say that next fiscal year Apple see's 10% unit sales growth.