Q3 Smartphone Market Shares and Prelim Estimate of Full Year 2017 Top 5 (plus installed base as always)

Time for some numbers. The average of the big analyst houses gives us a count of total smartphone market in Q3 globally of 383.1 million units. That is up 3% vs one year ago and up 7% vs the previous quarter ie Q2. We are on pace for something around 1.6B total smartphones sold this year, perhaps a bit under. The migration rate of new phone sales to smartphones is now at 82%. Because we have 3 quarters of data and the industry is relatively stable, I can also give you a preliminary projection for full year market shares (Top 5).

So lets do the Top 10. This is what the market looked like in the July-Sept quarter for 2017.

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2017

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2017 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  83.4 M . . 21.8% . . . . . . . ( 22.5% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 46.7 M . . 12.2% . . . . . . . ( 11.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 39.1 M . . 10.2% . . . . . . . ( 10.6% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . 33.4 M . . . 8.7% . . . . . . . (   7.8% )
5 (5)  . . . Xiaomi . . . . . .  27.9 M . . . 7.3% . . . . . . . (  6.5% ) 
6 (6) . . . Vivo  . . . . . . . . 26.5 M . . . 6.9% . . . . . . . (   6.0% ) 
7 (7) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . 16.6 M . . . 4.3% . . . . . . . (   5.2% )
8 (8) . . . LG . . . . . . . .  . 13.7 M . . . 3.6% . . . . . . . (   3.7% ) 
9 (9) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 12.5 M . . . 3.3% . . . . . . . (   3.1% )
10 (10) . Gionee . . . . . . .10.1 M . . . 2.6% . . . . . . .  (   2.6% )
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.2 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383.1 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared


So chart looks the same as in Q2. No changes in any positions (I don't remember that happening ever before since we started monitoring the 'bloodbath' on a quarterly basis at the start of this decade). Goes even more to show that this industry is now stable and 'boring'...

Global OS market share is Android minus iOS. The rest of OS is now under 0.5% so it is rounded off to zero. So easy math. Android is now 87.8% and iOS is 12.2% for this quarter.

As to Installed Base? That is starting to look a lot like Christmas... ie its starting to mimick the situation in new sales for OS.. slowly Android approaches its new sales share and Apple slowly reclines to near its new sales levels, and the other last remaining OS platforms die out even in installed base.

SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AT END OF SEPTEMBER 2017 BY OPERATING SYSTEM

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . . . . . Units Q3 . . . Market share  Was Q2 2017
1 . . . . All Android . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,660 M . . . 82 % . . . . . . ( 81 %)  
a . . . . . . Pure Android/Play . . . . 1,796 M . . . 55% . . . . . . ( 55%)
b . . . . . . Forked Anroid/AOSP . . . 864 M . . . 27% . . . . . . ( 26%)
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 M . . . 18 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 M  . . . . 0 % . . . . . . (   1 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . 3,261 M smartphones (ie 3.3 Billion) in use at end of Q3, 2017

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared


Yeah 82/18 is the current split of the 'OS war'. New sales is about 85/15. Apple iPhones had a peak of about 20% market share and this slow decline reflects partly that decline. It is slower than mathematically 'should be' because used iPhones have a better resale market than used generic Android smartphones so the iOS installed base is likely to remain a few points above the actual sales levels of recent 3 years or so. I foresee this pattern to remain for the foreseeable future (say next 5 years at least). If iPhone sells in 13% to 15% range for next few years, then its installed base can be in the 15% to 17% range. The lion's share will of course be Android. Apple's iOS is destined to same niche market future as Mac OS was in PC wars. Most developers will soon only do Android with iOS the possible secondary involvement. This will particularly be true in the 5/6th of the world market where most phones are sold (India just passed the US as a smartphone market, Apple's share in the US is 30%, in India it is 3% - that in a nutshell explains the predicament for Apple - the world growth is all in the Emerging World and iPhones are way too expensive to maintain share there. This means iOS has lost the war and will soon only be a 'rich market OS' while Android is the only 'global' reach market).

PROJECTION FOR FULL YEAR 2017

Lets also take the full year 2017. Since we have 3 quarters of data already, and we can see the market is remarkably stable, I can give a preliminary projection for full year 2017 smartphone market shares. I see it like this:

PRELIMINARY TOP 5 SMARTPHONE UNIT SALES FULL YEAR 2017
(Projection in November 2017)

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Market Share . Was 2016
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  21% . . . . . . . ( 20.8% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 14% . . . . . . . ( 14.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . .10% . . . . . . . (   9.4% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . . 8% . . . . . . . (   6.1% )
5 (6) . . . Vivo  . . . . . . . .  . 6% . . . . . . . (   4.9% ) 

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Projection 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data and TomiAhonen Consulting industry forecasting model.
This table may be freely shared

That is what the market looks like to me, at the end of Q3. If you were wondering who was at Number 5 that I see dropping behind Vivo? That is Xiaomi. They'll be close but I give 5th rank to Vivo (that is also the least confident of these 5 rankings, the others in the Top 4 are pretty well locked in stone and their market shares will not differ more than by one point at the most from how I see it now).

As always, this info may be freely shared.

Comments

[John A]

Google just announced Android Go. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek will ship units with it. So in the next move from dumphones to smartphones android will have a big impact to the overall userbase.

The aim is to have a good android experience even in low hardware. And the long term goal is probably to ”lock” in customers in the Google eco system and keep them there even if they later buy more expensive smartphones. So I think this is not good news for iOS in many parts of the world.

[E.Casais]

@Jim Glue

"Unlocked, SIM Free iPhone X's are now on sale via Apple's online store [...]. Same price as any other iPhone X."

And in Switzerland, the prices of unlocked iPhone X are falling. They are now as follows:

64 GB: CHF 1079.10 (down from 1167.25 two days ago, and 1199.00 at introduction).

256 GB: CHF 1250.10 (down from 1339.00, resp. 1389.00).

For comparison, the Samsung Galaxy Note 8 is at

64 GB: CHF 899.10 (from 949.00 a couple of days ago)

128 GB: CHF 999.00 (no change since 2017-11-27, previously 1039.00).

256 GB: CHF 1056.00 (from 1099.00 on 2017-11-20 and 1149.00 end of October).

As I wrote previously, a proper assessment of prices must be based on markets that are not subject to the massive distortions evident in the USA (locked devices, operator subsidies, staged releases by Apple). A market like Switzerland gives you a much better view of the actual price categories those different devices belong to.

The previous observation stands: the highest-end Note 8 is cheaper than the lowest end iPhone X. These are devices in completely separate categories.

[Jim Glue]

I'm happy to see the LATEST attempt by Google to deliver a good experience on the low end. But it's not going to change the existing dynamics. Google ALREADY owns the low end...there is no competition. Bada/Tizen/Sailfish/a dozen more...have all been relegated to the dustbin of history long ago.

Well...not just Google, but "Android". Perhaps the real desire is for Google to gain back market from it's own freely released AOSP.

We won't have that much visibility into the real situation with respect to "can Android keep it's customers" until the migration from dumb phone to smartphone is complete. Right now, the growth in Android due solely to this migration overwhelms any other thing happening when viewing only the global unit market share.

That's where this false narrative of Apple's falling market share is coming from. Oh, it's true that Apple's share is falling...it's just not true that Apple is in decline.

Eventually, the entire market will be saturated...like the PC market is today. Apple will have 10-12% of the market. Maybe 8-10%. Just depends on how aggressively Apple attacks the $200-$300 market.

So you'll have the momentum favor for team Android. Poor people being used to Android, moving up to better Android phones. Against that you'll have the "still better experience" Apple drawing people who are fed up with their cheap phones and wanting something new and better.

You'll also have the decline in Android's ability to support the development of high end components with Apple's ability to out invest the entire Android ecosystem. Apple will continue to benefit from tight integration and increasing control over hardware, software and services. The Android ecosystem will continue to find new and better ways to take away any money to be made selling Android handsets.

[Jim Glue]

Scale. It is so hard to grasp the enormity of the smartphone scale. Consider this data point. The very successful Sony Playstation 4 just past the 70 million units world wide. Not this quarter...all the years. All the years of the Play Station 3 added to 80 million. 80 million units of an initially $400 gaming system for the lifetime of it's run.

Apple, the big loser in unit market share for it's smartphone platform...is going to sell 80million iPhones THIS QUARTER...at an ASP above $700. And Apple's is the losing platform with only 600M or so STILL RUNNING AND IN ACTIVE USE customers where all the developers are soon to abandon.

Tough business to be in...smartphones. 70 million over years is considered a great platform business in other arenas.

[Abdul Muis]

@GoodTimes

Android user mostly use Google Photo for photo storage & sharing.

[Phil W]

"How emparrasing is that? They still can´t get the newest version of the Android out."

Nobody cares about this. (apart from Apple supporters). Nougat works today as well as it did last year. It's nice to have the latest but it's not important. As I said before, what is important is security updates and that is improving with Android.

The idea keeps getting planted that everyone who buys a budget phone is either poor or is just itching to upgrade to something more expensive at the next upgrade. This is wishful thinking at best. Most people make their purchase decisions based on their own personal use patterns and look for the phone that meets that at the best price. There are plenty of really good if priced phones that are more than enough for most people and they are more than likely to be perfectly satisfied. Just because a phone is a budget one does not make it cheap.

[Phil W]

That should have been "mid priced" and not "if priced".

[Phil W]

Also the last word should be crap not cheap.

[Abdul Muis]

@Phil W,

iSheep think, all will drive Ferrari or Lamborghini if they can afford it.

[Jim Glue]

Fandroids think that "no one will drive a Ferrari because a Tata car from India can be bought for $1000"

[Winter]

@Jim Glue
"Fandroids think that "no one will drive a Ferrari because a Tata car from India can be bought for $1000""

Who said that, or anything implying this? Citation please.

[Jim Glue]

OMG - Winter. Then entire Apple is doomed mantra is tied to iPhones being more expensive than Androids. The never ending fantasy is that one day the entire world will wake up and say "you know....why am I spending $1000 on an iPhone when you can get a $200 Android phone that does all anyone really needs"....yadda yadda.

After all....it's only FASHION that drives iPhone sales. Not well built phones, best app ecosystem, best in the industry support. No. iPhones only sell because rich folks want to show off how much money they have.

Any day now...iPhones will no longer be cool...but will still be WAY too expensive...THEN everyone will dump iPhones and make the sane, reasonable choice that Android fans are making.

Of course...we all know that for every true Android fan, there are a thousand others buying Android because it's all they can afford

[Abdul Muis]

I think you're a fool if you think apple is still better than Android. Apple just catching up by using AMOLED in iphone X. While samsung galaxy A series, a mid range phone already using AMOLED. I could go on and on like you... But my point is, Apple is not the best phone available.

And your sick thinking that anyone can afford iphone will buy iphone is a childish/ teenage girl thinking. I see iphone 7 (while its new) ride a bus, or drive a 10 years old car.

I seen a galaxy note user drive a mercedes benz.

[Jim Glue]

I have never said anyone who can buy iphones will. I have said that the reason most people buy Androids is because they are cheap. There's a difference between those two statements.

There are some very nice Android phones like the Samsung Galaxy S and Note and Google's Pixel lines. These cost around the same as iPhones. They are NOT the reason Apple's market share is small and getting smaller. The vast majority of Android sales are the low end.

Android as an OS and an ecosystem is not as good as iOS. But that's just an opinion shared by me and most people with a brain (I'm kidding). Like one better than the other. No big deal. They are not so different that one is "insanely great" and the other is "dog food".

[GoodTimes]

If you ask over 2000 dollars from a latest 2018 platinum coated Samsung "smartphone" you can for surely expect latest version of the OS To be in it.

[GoodTimes]

ve seen that citation used with all of the variations (Ferrari/Ford, TeslaS/Lada....)

Point is that all of the Tata drivers wish that they would have a Ferrari.

[Phil W]

"I have never said anyone who can buy iphones will. I have said that the reason most people buy Androids is because they are cheap. There's a difference between those two statements."

There you go again, you don't seem to understand that people do buy Android devices because they prefer them. The price is not the only decider.

I bought a £180 Nokia because it did all of what I need it to do. I could have afforded the top iPhone or Galaxy, I didn't buy them because they would have added nothing to my experience. Others would see things differently I know. The point is I didn't buy it because it was cheap, I bought it because to have spent more would not have added any more value for me. It's a subtle difference, but it is a difference and I would not be alone in this.

[Phil W]

Ferrari? I have a friend who has one. He has to keep it in a climate controlled garage and it only is taken out once a year for a drive to stop it siezing up.Why the hell would I want one of those?

[Jim Glue]

Phil - the vast majority of Android phones sold are cheap crap phones that no one would buy if they could afford better. Better Android phone...better iPhone. Neither you nor I are the typical smartphone buyer.

I can’t afford a Mercedes. I’m quite content with my Sonata. I just don’t pretend my Sonata is “just as good” as a Mercedes.

I bought a $100 Android phone. I’ve bought several in fact. I don’t pretend they are just as good as an $949 Galaxy Note.

Price is a huge factor in what anybody buys. It’s the only factor that Android has that led to its world wide dominance over the iPhone.

Android devices priced like the iPhone do sell. They just don’t dominate sales. Where Android dominates is SOLEY and ONLY about price.

Consider China. Samsung is no longer in the top 5 in China. Samsung used to be number 1. All of the Chinese compete against Samsung and Apple by being cheaper. Samsung has cheap phones too. Apple does not. Yet Apple is holding its own in China where Samsung has been hammered. Hammered by CHEAP Android phones.

It’s worse in India. China has a sizable middle class that is willing to pay good money for smartphones...and a billion poor who cannot. India has a tiny middle class in comparison and ONLY cheap phones sell (not “only” but might as well be).

Cheap cheap cheap. That’s the story of Android

[Abdul Muis]

@Good Times

"ve seen that citation used with all of the variations (Ferrari/Ford, TeslaS/Lada....)

Point is that all of the Tata drivers wish that they would have a Ferrari."

***ALL*** ???
You sure you can back up your claim that ***ALL*** tata driver wish that???

Not all tata driver have low self esteem. Some of them might be very satisfied with their tata, SOME of them might think to have better car such as suzuki maruti or perhaps a honda or toyota, but not ***ALL*** wish a Ferrari.