Q3 Smartphone Market Shares and Prelim Estimate of Full Year 2017 Top 5 (plus installed base as always)

Time for some numbers. The average of the big analyst houses gives us a count of total smartphone market in Q3 globally of 383.1 million units. That is up 3% vs one year ago and up 7% vs the previous quarter ie Q2. We are on pace for something around 1.6B total smartphones sold this year, perhaps a bit under. The migration rate of new phone sales to smartphones is now at 82%. Because we have 3 quarters of data and the industry is relatively stable, I can also give you a preliminary projection for full year market shares (Top 5).

So lets do the Top 10. This is what the market looked like in the July-Sept quarter for 2017.

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2017

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q2 2017 
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  83.4 M . . 21.8% . . . . . . . ( 22.5% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 46.7 M . . 12.2% . . . . . . . ( 11.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 39.1 M . . 10.2% . . . . . . . ( 10.6% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . 33.4 M . . . 8.7% . . . . . . . (   7.8% )
5 (5)  . . . Xiaomi . . . . . .  27.9 M . . . 7.3% . . . . . . . (  6.5% ) 
6 (6) . . . Vivo  . . . . . . . . 26.5 M . . . 6.9% . . . . . . . (   6.0% ) 
7 (7) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . 16.6 M . . . 4.3% . . . . . . . (   5.2% )
8 (8) . . . LG . . . . . . . .  . 13.7 M . . . 3.6% . . . . . . . (   3.7% ) 
9 (9) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 12.5 M . . . 3.3% . . . . . . . (   3.1% )
10 (10) . Gionee . . . . . . .10.1 M . . . 2.6% . . . . . . .  (   2.6% )
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.2 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383.1 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared


So chart looks the same as in Q2. No changes in any positions (I don't remember that happening ever before since we started monitoring the 'bloodbath' on a quarterly basis at the start of this decade). Goes even more to show that this industry is now stable and 'boring'...

Global OS market share is Android minus iOS. The rest of OS is now under 0.5% so it is rounded off to zero. So easy math. Android is now 87.8% and iOS is 12.2% for this quarter.

As to Installed Base? That is starting to look a lot like Christmas... ie its starting to mimick the situation in new sales for OS.. slowly Android approaches its new sales share and Apple slowly reclines to near its new sales levels, and the other last remaining OS platforms die out even in installed base.

SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AT END OF SEPTEMBER 2017 BY OPERATING SYSTEM

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . . . . . Units Q3 . . . Market share  Was Q2 2017
1 . . . . All Android . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,660 M . . . 82 % . . . . . . ( 81 %)  
a . . . . . . Pure Android/Play . . . . 1,796 M . . . 55% . . . . . . ( 55%)
b . . . . . . Forked Anroid/AOSP . . . 864 M . . . 27% . . . . . . ( 26%)
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 M . . . 18 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) 
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 M  . . . . 0 % . . . . . . (   1 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . 3,261 M smartphones (ie 3.3 Billion) in use at end of Q3, 2017

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared


Yeah 82/18 is the current split of the 'OS war'. New sales is about 85/15. Apple iPhones had a peak of about 20% market share and this slow decline reflects partly that decline. It is slower than mathematically 'should be' because used iPhones have a better resale market than used generic Android smartphones so the iOS installed base is likely to remain a few points above the actual sales levels of recent 3 years or so. I foresee this pattern to remain for the foreseeable future (say next 5 years at least). If iPhone sells in 13% to 15% range for next few years, then its installed base can be in the 15% to 17% range. The lion's share will of course be Android. Apple's iOS is destined to same niche market future as Mac OS was in PC wars. Most developers will soon only do Android with iOS the possible secondary involvement. This will particularly be true in the 5/6th of the world market where most phones are sold (India just passed the US as a smartphone market, Apple's share in the US is 30%, in India it is 3% - that in a nutshell explains the predicament for Apple - the world growth is all in the Emerging World and iPhones are way too expensive to maintain share there. This means iOS has lost the war and will soon only be a 'rich market OS' while Android is the only 'global' reach market).

PROJECTION FOR FULL YEAR 2017

Lets also take the full year 2017. Since we have 3 quarters of data already, and we can see the market is remarkably stable, I can give a preliminary projection for full year 2017 smartphone market shares. I see it like this:

PRELIMINARY TOP 5 SMARTPHONE UNIT SALES FULL YEAR 2017
(Projection in November 2017)

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Market Share . Was 2016
1 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  21% . . . . . . . ( 20.8% ) 
2 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 14% . . . . . . . ( 14.5% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . .10% . . . . . . . (   9.4% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . . 8% . . . . . . . (   6.1% )
5 (6) . . . Vivo  . . . . . . . .  . 6% . . . . . . . (   4.9% ) 

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Projection 24 Nov 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data and TomiAhonen Consulting industry forecasting model.
This table may be freely shared

That is what the market looks like to me, at the end of Q3. If you were wondering who was at Number 5 that I see dropping behind Vivo? That is Xiaomi. They'll be close but I give 5th rank to Vivo (that is also the least confident of these 5 rankings, the others in the Top 4 are pretty well locked in stone and their market shares will not differ more than by one point at the most from how I see it now).

As always, this info may be freely shared.

Comments

[Øyvind Mo]

I read a while back that BBK Electronics Corporation owns both Oppo and Vivo (and by extension even the minor players OnePlus and imoo : https://www.phonearena.com/news/Did-you-know---smartphone-makers-OnePlus-Oppo-and-Vivo-are-all-owned-by-the-same-company_id82439

This makes BBK the second largest handset producer, right behind Samsung, or are there any particular barriers between these fully owned subsidiaries which make it more useful to consider them separate producers?

[James Glu]

Destined to the Mac niche? Already there. Unless you mean the Macs percentage (5% for most of the time, something like 8% now).

I do not see the iPhone ever taking anything close to 20% of the total market. More like 10-11% once the complete switch to from dumb phones is over.

Unit sales in the 300million range....Apple will be doing just fine. Install base around 750Million.

Shout out to Nokia for releasing their Oreo update for their flagship phone....and beating Samsung to the punch. This is very good news. Of course, the real “this is something new and wonderful” comes when they deliver Oreo to their budget models. Go HMD!

[Phil W]

Beat me to it Jim!

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Ovind

Good point and we've had some other readers make it in the past too. I think I should split the Top 10 to have one listing of 'Brands' where Vivo & Oppo (& OnePlus etc) would be counted separately like now - but also splitting out for example Motorola out from Lenovo numbers.

And then separately do a 'manufacturers' listing which is the more accurate competitive measure of the players, where BKK is listed as the entity owning Vivo, Oppo, OnePlus etc, and add their numbers together. That would be like adding all Volkswagen Group brands together for total VW corporate unit sales or in US context, adding all GM brands of cars rather than counting Cadillac separate from Chevrolet etc..

Certainly currently the methodology is not consistent. We also previously added various brands of a given manufacturer together like TCL's brands like Alcatel, Palm, Blackberry and Radio Shack.

If I feel inspired, I might do that for full year 2017 numbers haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

And with that my linear toy model shows I got the iPhone number wrong with 2% and the global number wrong with 0.6% (estimates were 45.75M and 385.5M respectively). Pretty nice estimates, all things considered.

Apple moving average share at 14.23%, a slight increase since last quarter, if anyone cares.

This coming quarter my model predicts 76.84M units for Apple and 453.79M units for the global number. That would bring the yearly totals to 215.33M for Apple versus 1543.39M for the global market.

However, the surge of iPhone 6 upgraders will happen this year, so I would say that boosts sales by about 10-20%. Thus I think Apple will have between 84.52M units and 92.21M units for Q4, and that would place the total at somewhere between 223.0M and 230.70M units.

Note that this will only tangent their record from 2015, it will not break it. The year after they might climb again to 235M-245M. Then it will be back to regular numbers for two years before another, smaller surge.

The motions of inevitability has started to show... :)

[John A]

Interesting to follow the statistic as always. I wonder when we will see Nokia in top ten or they not will make it? TCL got many brands but I think they are kind of slow with the BlackBerry brand. Very few models so it might not be a strong comeback after all.

I am also interested in the smaller Chinese "garage brands" so to speak. Elephone, VKworld, and so on. I think maybe Vernee will get a sort of break.They have released a lot of models recently. And the latest launch will be "Vernee Active" the companys phone with full global frequencies. Will work in the US market in other words.

So I think brands like HTC are in danger to vanish with all new players.

[John A]

I have no doubt that iPhone X selling fine. But I also read many sources about the new OnePlus 5t are the companys best selling phone ever. So It seems that the Android camp also got a hero device that going very fine.

Samsung probably will releasing the new Galaxy S9 in the CES event shortly. So it seems like always iPhones got a big peak a quarter or so, then decline when all the other new phones coming out to. So the long term trend is a shrinking marketshare.

But who know its rumour about some new iPhone SE, maybe a relativly cheap phone who might change the trend? Only time will tell.

[Jim Glue]

Best selling phone ever from one of the geographically constrains, also rans. Not that big of a story compared to Apple increasing the price of the iPhone another couple hundred dollars and increasing sales. iPhone used to be $650, and sold subsidized for $200. Now it's $999 and the $1150 model is outselling the $999 2 to 1 and together they are outselling any previous iPhone. THAT is unusual. That flies in the face of the "iPhone is doomed because of cheap, good enough Android".

The OnePlus 5T is just another example in the cheap, good enough race.

I doubt the new SE 2 will come in at a lower price. It will either come in higher, or the same as the SE, with the SE price dropping.

Apple doesn't give breakouts of sales by model. The 80M quarter we are about to experience is including a range from $350 to $1150 with 8 phone models....something quite new for Apple.

Yes, Apple's market share is falling (might not this quarter). It's not falling due to losing customers to the OnePlus 5T, or Samsung's Galaxy/Note, or Google's Pixels. Apple retains 95% of its customers when they buy their next phone. The market is simply growing as the dumbphone to smartphone migration continues.

[Jim Glue]

It's going to be a good year for Apple. However, I don't think we should move on so fast from the amazing year of the iPhone 7 pair. A third year with the same form factor. Meh...me too (allegedly) features. Forever and always as too expensive. Apply had a very strong final second half of the year where they were supposed to be weakest.

Meanwhile, the Samsung folks are already saying "wait till next phone"...isn't their Note 8 supposed to be the best phone of all time? Oh right, that's what the pundits were saying about the previous year's Note 7 before they started exploding.

Who's going to take the over/under about Apple outselling Samsung for this quarter?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Jim:

Apple isn't outselling Samsung. They may be outselling a specific model, yes, but not Samsung as a whole, that's ludicrous. :)

I still say, iPhone is a nice phone, but not so nice I'd want to pay thrice the money for it.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

A few related stats. Gartner has its Top 5. Same as us, same for their total shipment number for Q3, off by a few decimal points..

IDC has counted phablet screen size phones for 2017 which is 611M = about 40% of new smartphones sold.

Also IDC's count finds global ASP growing and is at $317 (because of the 1,000 dollar price phones at the top of the price pyramid, obviously low end is where the growth still is). IDC numbers at Datamation article:

https://www.datamation.com/mobile-wireless/phablets-becoming-the-preferred-smartphone-form-factor.html

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Jim Glue]

Hi Per,

Of course Samsung sells more phones than Apple - and everybody else less. Even after consolidating 3 Chinese companies into one, and Lenovo buying Morotola...they are still selling less phones than Apple (and Samsung).

That doesn't change the story. Apple isn't competing against Samsung's cheap phones anymore than Apple is competing against any of the low end. No more than Blackberry ever competed against Nokia/Motorola's feature phones.

But Samsung has two lines of phones that are directly aimed at the same market the iPhone is. Very nice phone lines...the best in the industry not made by Apple.

But if you are buying phones 1/3rd the price of iPhones...you aren't buying Samsung's best either. Which is fine. You are describing the largest part of the market after all.

Markets are a logical grouping. It was logical to separate Blackberry phones from feature phones. They were priced much differently and sold to different audiences. All we are seeing today is that feature phone buyers are buying smartphones now that the price has dropped enough. They still are "feature phone" people, paying feature phone prices, using feature phone levels of telecommunications services...and not spending anything at all on the broader ecosystem.

Apple didn't sell feature phones and isn't selling cheap smartphones to feature phone users. This is the only area Android is dominating Apple because Apple isn't participating.

[Jim Glue]

Nokia 2 comes to the US - via BestBuy (already there) and Amazon (just checked, not yet).

While I love my iPhones as my daily driver, I am enthused about the low end Android phones as backups and "Android Touch" devices.

$99 unlocked, running stock Android 7.1 with promised update to Oreo. Unfortunately, it only runs on GSM (AT&T, TMobile) and not CDMA (Verizon, Sprint).

Also, no option to upgrade from the 8gig storage. I've already learned that "expansion memory" is no substitute for having your apps installed on internal memory.

I doubt the camera will be acceptable to me either. My current "second phone" is going on 2 years old. Not sure the Nokia 2 is QUITE it for me.

[Best Smartphones Under 5000]

smartphones are getting cheaper day by day so here is the list of Smartphones Under 5000. Nice post thanks

[Jim Glue]

Unlocked, SIM Free iPhone X's are now on sale via Apple's online store (and presumably at Apple retail locations). Same price as any other iPhone X.

[Paavo]

@Tomi
This is supposed to be the best time of the year for Apple and Kantar Worldpanel reports that iPhone is losing market share. Need to take down the estimate of Q4 sales?

[Jim Glue]

Hi Paavo,

Did you read past the headline? During the time when the iPhone 8/8+ were for sale, and the iPhone X had been announced and was not yet available for sale is the period being discussed.

All signs point to an outstanding sales cycle for the iPhone X and a surprising improvement in availability due to increased output.

Bad news for Apple isn't "current customers waiting for for the newest/most expensive phone before buying".

[Mata Hari]

IPhone X is inferior to Samsung's new phones, Consumer Reports says
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/05/iphone-x-is-not-as-good-as-galaxy-s8-consumer-reports-says.html


So much for the iPhone X being the best phone ever. At least according to Consumer Reports.

The influential publication just released its full review of the $1,000 device, and concludes that Samsung's latest smartphones, and even the cheaper iPhone 8 series, are better options for most people.

"Taken as a complete package, this phone ranked a bit lower than Samsung's S8, S8+, and Note8, mainly because of their superior battery life," Consumer Reports said. "But many longtime iPhone users aren't interested in switching to Android, so the real question for them is whether to save a few bucks — or, actually, a couple hundred — and go with an iPhone 8 or 8 Plus instead."

[Jim Glue]

80 vs 81....how horrible.

Go ahead and read the actual review: https://www.consumerreports.org/smartphones/iphone-x-review-test-results/

It's very complimentary of the iPhone X. The extra battery life of the Samsung's tipped the scale.

No extra points awarded for the amazing, worked really well in their testing, FaceId...nor for being a lot faster phone.

iPhone X screen and camera were rated best. you know...in case "all day battery" is enough for you (19.5hrs) and you care about your photos.

[Abdul Muis]

Happy birthday tomi....
LOL....
I mean....
Happy birthday SMS.
🍺 🍺 🍺 🍺