Noted in Passing: Microsoft Smartphone OS Platform Passed Away

So it comes as no surprise to readers of this blog. But it's now official. Microsoft has announced that it has stopped the development of the smartphone OS platform that once was known as Windows Mobile, at another time Windows Phone and most recently Windows 10 Mobile. The existing product is not yet ended but all development has ended. You say tomato, I say potato. Same difference. Windows on smartphones is dead. Good riddance too!

Very briefly, I was chronicling the rise of Windows onto smartphones and chaired the world's first smartphone conference. I kept tabs on the role of Windows which briefly was the world's second-bestselling smartphone OS a decade ago. I warned of the mistakes Microsoft was making that started the death-spiral - very importantly from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, the bizarre arrogant decision by Steve Ballmer to not have a migration path to Windows Phone OS (this was still before the Nokia related end to the platform). I was proven right and Windows lost half its share and fell to fifth ranking in smartphone OS wars just as the 'Bloodbath' was heating up (which we followed intensely on this blog).

Then came the end. The unholy alliance of Nokia and Windows, orchestrated by the worst CEO in corporate history, Stephen Elop (aka E-Flop as he's often called in Finland). Nokia's inept CEO messed up what chances the partnership would have had. I predicted that Nokia sales would collapse (as they did) and Nokia's handset unit which had never one in Nokia's history produced a loss - would start to produce losses (which it did) and that Nokia would never return to profits in smartphones (which it didn't) and that Nokia would have to sell its handset business (as it did) and that would be to Microsoft (as it occurred). Not bad predicting, eh.

And a few months after the Nokia deal, Steve Ballmer then put the final nail into the coffin of Windows smartphone hopes - when Microsoft purchased Skype. Once again, as with the previous forecasts, when I explained why Skype was the death-nail to the smartphone OS platform, numerous readers came and loudly protested in the comments, claiming I was a fool. Yet in a matter of weeks, all other major Windows Phone handset makers instantly quit the platform (like SonyEricsson, LG, Motorola, Dell) or dramatically cut down the Windows Phone product portfolio (like Samsung and HTC) and Windows share collapsed from 5% the year before to half that by the time the first Nokia branded phones started to ship on the platform. It was not the Nokia deal that killed Windows, it was Ballmer's purchase of Skype - as I explained and as turned out to be true. The carrier community put Windows smartphones into a sales boycott and Microsoft never recovered. This all happened before Nokia started selling Lumia phones on Windows, but later, when Nokia CEO was asked about a sales boycott, he admitted one existed and that it was hurting all Windows phone makers, including the then-brand-new Nokia Lumia sales. Various other Nokia and Microsoft execs admitted the boycott or in some synonyms like 'carrier reluctance' to sell the Windows OS phones (not just Nokia Lumia but from other Windows vendors too that remained, like Samsung and HTC).

Nokia Lumia edition 1 failed as I predicted. It was replaced by edition 2 on a new version of Windows Phone OS which failed, as I predicted, and then the third edition failed, by which time Elop was demoted and Nokia sold the whole handset business to Microsoft, tossing Elop in the package back to his former employer too. I predicted that Nokia would recover with the telecoms infrastructure business which is at Nokia's core telecoms competence (as it did). I predicted that the ex-Nokia handset business would continue to be a failure at Microsoft, exactly as it did fail too.

Of the Nokia handset business sale to Microsoft, again, I made a series of predictions, that now every single one of my predictions came true. I said that the first recourse at Microsoft to the failing handset business would to fire the incompetent Elop from running the handset business (as it did). I said Microsoft would give their handset unit to another exec to run (which it did) and that exec would have two years until the business unit would be shut (as it happened). I even postulated a fantasy 'Hollywood ending' scenario by which Nokia's handset business would be sold back to Nokia, after it had failed at Microsoft. While that technically did not 'exactly' happen, gosh, it is close, considering how the sale happened to HMD. I then said that the OS platform itself, was obviously doomed because HMD aka 'New Nokia' would release Android phones, not Windows phones - as it happened - and now we see the end of Windows smartphone OS itself. Incidentally about the timing? I said Windows OS at Microsoft had a rough life span as a doomed 'dead man walking' division of never producing profits, of about two cycles of two years ie four years. Look at the calendar? Its autumn 2017. Four years on the dot.

There is nobody else in the industry who gave all this in predictions before they happened. And nobody else who explained each of these events WHEN they happened (no migration path Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, Skype Purchase, Nokia Partnership, Nokia Purchase, ex-Nokia Sale to HMD) and how that would impact Windows smartphone OS platform. Every single step in Windows fall was predicted correctly here on this blog and nobody else saw all that happening. This is now the final part. Yeah. It makes me happy to see Microsoft suffer, I hated Microsoft long before they got involved with Nokia. But regardless of my feelings about the company, the actual events - every single one I predicted, came true, and nothing I ever predicted did NOT come true. I even pointed out the silly forecasts of famous industry analysts who promised Windows would be bigger than the iPhone today in 2017 haha and have something above 20% market share of smartphones today. I was here,  when it happened, and told you exactly what would happen. As it all happened.

Oh. One more bit. I was the first to also tell you that Google won the battle of the century for the OS of all high tech - when Android was passing Windows (all devices, not just smartphones, but PCs included). Nobody else told you that either. It is now becoming apparent to many experts that Google owns the tech world via Android. Who told you first? The dude who saw how Windows was truly collapsing and that iOS was never a threat to Google's world domination plans. Yeah, we'll return to those issues in coming years no doubt. Goodbye Windows smartphones and by darn it, good riddance too! Ballmer gone. Elop gone. Lumia gone. Windows smartphone OS gone. Now when can we see Microsoft the company gone too, please, next?

Comments

[Winter]

"Banks should be afraid. Be very afraid."

The EU is currently opening up the banking sector. They are forcing banks to share data with third parties after the client consents. The EU considers data the property of the data subject, that is why.

But I think that the EU is not doing this to let Google and Facebook scoop up all the banking business. So, I expect some strong market power oversight. I expect some more multi-billion euro fines to reign in those mega companies that try to overrun the banking sector.

[Jim Glue]

On the topic of "peak iPhone" - I'd rather call it "mature iPhone". We can debate till the cows come home about whether we've already seen the peak. We've had 1 slightly down year and are awaiting the results of this year to see if it's a trend.

What now? Certainly not the free fall collapse of the iPhone or Apple. Just because the growth phase of a market matures, doesn't mean it's followed directly by a plummet into death.

What if 230M phones, give or take a few million or 10 million either way....is all that Apple ever can sell.

I'd say that Apple would have a terrific cash generating business that's stable for a decade or more to come. Longer if some OTHER type of technology doesn't come and replace the smartphone.

Apple will look to grow revenues in other ways. We already see that. For the last 2 years Apple has been preparing their investors to pay attention to their service revenue. Then you have complimentary products like the iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones, and the forthcoming Homepod.

We haven't seen "peak iphone install base" yet. Even with the first down year in new sales, Apple's install base grew.

I'm not suggesting Apple has given up on increasing sales. They have reduced the entry iPhone to $349, increased the amount of handsets such that you have options from $349 to $1149 at every $50 to $100 spot between the lowest and highest. Lower spots are reached with the vibrant used iPhone market. iPhones are all built to flagship quality level so they last a long time and get new OS updates for 5 years or so.

I'm just conceding that at SOME point there will be a top. Just like at SOME point there will be a top for smartphones in general.

Apple's strategy will be to continue catering to their customer base (the western middle class and everywhere the middle class is emerging) with new products and services rather than going after the slim to none margin business.

Nobody is better positioned than Apple to thrive in a mature market.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Jim don't post lies

I deleted the rambling post

Now WATCH it or I'll start to delete more postings. Don't post clear lies

Tomi Ahonen

[Tomi T Ahonen]

(PS John F / Gonzo)

You really think I'm that dumb? You haven't learned anything in your years on this blog? Try that again, and I'll delete the pathetic little bit you've contributed since.

I really don't care for your contributions and will be most happy to oblige you if you'd like me to delete them too

Tomi Ahonen

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Jim:

$349 for their, at this point, 1 and a half year old phone. That's not contending at a new price point, that's serving yesterdays meal.

Show me a new phone at the same price point, that isn't a revamp of a previous phone (the SE is a revamp of the 5S)... And now we're talking business.

Sadly, that we will never see from Apple, and nor would it make sense for Apple to do that. And that's why Apple cannot see more growth.

[Raptor]

These pathetic Windows fanboys that keep coming up with these idiotic ideas of Microsoft creating their own Android phone or releasing an Android phone with the Play store and only Microsoft apps are just as delusional and pathetic as they were when they were doing free PR work for Windows Phone by posting how great the platform was and convincing their friends and family to switch to Windows phone.

No one is going to partner with a company that has cancelled and osbourned as many products and services as Microsoft. The list of Microsoft failures in the consumer space is long and well deserved.

[Raptor]

>the world has been always unfair to Microsoft.

Looks like we have a butt hurt Microsoft fan that is mad because his favorite company couldn't compete with the big boys. Ballmer laughed at phones with no keyboards - they're not very good "email machines" the buffoon said.

>Google can preload voice apps. Hangouts are equally popular as skype. But Microsoft can't

What are you talking about? What do you think all of the Windows apps on Windows 10 are? Did you really think Google would allow Microsoft to preinstall Apps on THEIR OWN OS? Are you delusional?

>Google take advantage of their Google.com home screen to promote chrome but if Microsoft did in their own OS it will be fined.

Have you been to Microsoft.com lately? They're pushing their Edge browser. So please quit bullshittng. One more thing, unlike Google, Microsoft bundles third party bloatware on their desktop OS, pushes you to use Edge and shows Ads on Explorer asking you to upgrade your storage.

>Google can unethically copy iOS for android and nobody bats an eye. But the role Microsoft's windows copy from iOS will be spoken for decades.

What an idiotic statement. iOS has copied Android more than the other way around. BTW, in case you didn't know it Google has a patent on mobile notifications.

>Let me tell you one thing.
>If Microsoft wasn't there, there will be no Google. It was Microsoft's vision to put a computer at every desk in a home.

What a pathetic theory. Google would still be around regardless of Microsoft, but they'd probably be even bigger.

>Google used and using this platform till date to make money.

And Microsoft uses Bing to lose money.

>If Microsoft was given full rights on their OWN OS. Had it made Google and Google Ad words not run on their OS just like how Google made sure none of their apps runs on Windows Phone, Google would be dead. Microsoft can still kill Google but the world will be unfair.

Silly statement like these make me wonder if you even understand how technology works. Your comment is so void of logic that it is embarrassing. You're so obsessed with defending Microsoft that you've resorted to lying and coming up with delusional fantasies.

>All said, Microsoft came up with an innovative and beautiful UI for windows phone instead of copying iOS like Google did. I am proud of it and I will never have any respect for Google's hypocrite behavior.

Windows phone was a hideous disaster with one of the ugliest UI's to ever grace a mobile device. The UI was so toxic that it caused the failure of their Windows 8 and 8.1 OS. People despised it so much that they had to scale back those disgusting tiles and hide them behind the Start/Windows icon. Thankfully you can get rid of them all if you like. One more thing, when your POS WP dies, please get an iPhone. WP militants like you deserve to use iOS full time.

[Raptor]

>There is a way for micro$oft to steal google thunder.... DirectX & Xbox.
>Microsoft could create directX for android, and make an app store that have directX. So, the Xbox/PC game developer can port their game easily.
>Furthermore, microsoft could make that if buy game in Xbox, you can redownload the game thru Microsoft apps store free (if the apps for mobike version also available).

Where do these Microsoft fanboys get their idea's from? Do they actually read and understand what they type? Does this person really think that Microsoft could release DirectX for Android? It's like this person doesn't even understand basic OS concepts. They couldn't even get game developers to make games for their own platform and yet he thinks putting DirectX on Android (hilarious and impossible) will magically get them back in mobile? The delusions these people have is just pathetic. They can't accept the failure of their favorite company so they come up with this fan fiction BS that belongs more in comic books than message boards.

[Abdul Muis]

@Raptor

"What are you talking about? What do you think all of the Windows apps on Windows 10 are? Did you really think Google would allow Microsoft to preinstall Apps on THEIR OWN OS? Are you delusional?"

Some of samsung phone has Microsoft office + Skype pre-installed... At least, some samsung phone in some country.

Google is not Microsoft. Google will not abuse it's power of monopoly.

[Abdul Muis]

@Raptor

Microsoft can make directX for android if they want because android is open source & Snapdragon processor support DirectX.

Second,
There's a couple of apps in linux that can be use to play directX game such as wine (wine is not emulaor). Microsoft have inside knowledge to DirectX & more manpower, so it would be pieces of cake for them if they wanna do it.

Third,
When I'm talking about directX, I'm talking about porting windows desktop game to smartphone

[Jim Glue]

@Per - The iPhone SE with the 6s internals is still a great, quality smartphone. The cheap Android phones that were built to be cheap, are no competition.

That's like saying a new BMW 325i that is a 2015 model is a worse car than a 2018 Kia. "Well the Kia is new, and the BMW is a 3 yr old model".

Not that I'm debating you that iPhones are ever cheaper than Androids...they are not. I would gladly buy an iPhone SE than any Android phone built new to sell at $349.

And we haven't even touched the used market where iPhones still command above average resale value and sell despite new Android phones at the same price.

[Abdul Muis]

1 year in mobile phone is like 10 years in car. iPhone SE is like 1987 BMW.

If iPhone SE is the best smartphone in its price segment. More than 50% will buy iPhone SE instead.

Resell value is relative. In Asia, Samsung phone have better resell value than iPhone.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

LOL Abdul

Brilliant comment '10 years..' LOL

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tester]

Well not quite:

Drive a 30 year old car and people ask how you managed to get that car to work for this long.
Use a 3 year old phone and people ask you why you are still using that old clunker...

:D

[Raptor]

@Abdul

>Some of samsung phone has Microsoft office + Skype pre-installed... At least, some samsung phone in some country.

Actually, they're not apps, but stubs that launch the Play store so that you can install them if you want. Thankfully, you can disable these 1KB stubs and be done with any Microsoft software on your device.

[Raptor]

@Abdul

>Microsoft can make directX for android if they want because android is open source & Snapdragon processor support DirectX.

I don't think you understand what you're talking about. Google decides what goes into Android and what does not. Secondly, no Android game developer is going to use DirectX over OpenGL or Vulkan. What you're saying is so silly that it isn't even worth talking about.

>There's a couple of apps in linux that can be use to play directX game such as wine (wine is not emulaor). Microsoft have inside knowledge to DirectX & more manpower, so it would be pieces of cake for them if they wanna do it.

Some (DirectX 9) Windows games work on Linux using WINE because WINE has it's on DirectX 9 implementation and translates the calls to OpenGl. Again, this is all irrelevant as it is preposterous to even think of doing something this silly and futile.

>When I'm talking about directX, I'm talking about porting windows desktop game to smartphone

Microsoft couldn't even port their own XBOX games to Windows phone and now you think they're going to be able to port windows games to Android? BTW, let me state a very simple fact - Microsoft doesn't make many games. The majority of games on Windows are from third party publishers and they're not going to waste their time on this bizarre and silly idea.

[Abdul Muis]

@Raptor

"I don't think you understand what you're talking about. Google decides what goes into Android and what does not. Secondly, no Android game developer is going to use DirectX over OpenGL or Vulkan. What you're saying is so silly that it isn't even worth talking about."

I think we're talking two different thing.

I meant....
1. Microsoft could make microsoft flavor of android, and produce the phone.
2. Microsoft could make their own android app store, like Amazon did. But they will support directX for easing the port from PC to phone.

"The majority of games on Windows are from third party publishers and they're not going to waste their time on this bizarre and silly idea."

If those 3rd party developer can port the game with less time (i.e. safe 75% time/money) wouldn't they be tempted?

[Tester]

@Abdul:

"If those 3rd party developer can port the game with less time (i.e. safe 75% time/money) wouldn't they be tempted?"

Nobody will make a port for a fringe platform if with a little more effort a much larger one can be targetted.

So no, having DirectX on MS-Android won't help them one bit. They'd still have to port their games to Vulkan or OpenGL. And once they need to do that anyway they can just start out with Vulkan so that they target all relevant non-Apple platforms with one API.

Considering this, it's merely inertia that keeps Direct3D going. Right now the most viable 3D API is clearly Vulkan, because it has by far the broadest target range: All of Windows plus lots of Android plus Linux. Once this reality sinks in that Windows and Android as the majority platforms can be targetted with the same low level code I'd expect a significant decrease in use of Direct3D.

(BTW, I find it ironic that Apple with their Metal idiocy is playing into Microsoft's hands here. If they also went with Vulkan I'd expect all other 3D APIs to disappear in a very short period of time.)

You are also grossly misjudging the places in the code where most effort is needed. You won't save 75% of time and money on the low level 3D API. The biggest change from Windows to mobile is the user interface. The 3D API at the bottom of the code is normally just a minor part of the whole picture.

[Abdul Muis]

@Tester & @Raptor

I'm not rooting for Microsoft.

What I'm saying is, microsoft can ruin Google's Android **IF** somehow they can port DirectX to Android, and control the DirectX development.

[Tester]

@Abdul:

You are grossly overestimating the importance of DirectX for game development.

Especially with DirectX 12 the differences to Vulkan are merely syntactic, porting one to the other is relatively easy - and since most modern 3D engines need to run on Android anyway, any game developed with one of these will be easy to do.

And releasing a phone without OpenGL/Vulkan - which would be the only incentive to use such an API - would kill the attempt right away, because it's not compatible with stock Android anymore, i.e. the initial reach would mean that most developers would gladly skip that platform.

Remember: Microsoft already had such a platform. By your reasoning Windows Phone would have been the #1 platform to go for game developers. And we all know this did not happen.

I'd estimate that game development will gravitate more to Vulkan in the future because it got all the advantages of DirectX 12 with none of its disadvantages.