Noted in Passing: Microsoft Smartphone OS Platform Passed Away

So it comes as no surprise to readers of this blog. But it's now official. Microsoft has announced that it has stopped the development of the smartphone OS platform that once was known as Windows Mobile, at another time Windows Phone and most recently Windows 10 Mobile. The existing product is not yet ended but all development has ended. You say tomato, I say potato. Same difference. Windows on smartphones is dead. Good riddance too!

Very briefly, I was chronicling the rise of Windows onto smartphones and chaired the world's first smartphone conference. I kept tabs on the role of Windows which briefly was the world's second-bestselling smartphone OS a decade ago. I warned of the mistakes Microsoft was making that started the death-spiral - very importantly from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, the bizarre arrogant decision by Steve Ballmer to not have a migration path to Windows Phone OS (this was still before the Nokia related end to the platform). I was proven right and Windows lost half its share and fell to fifth ranking in smartphone OS wars just as the 'Bloodbath' was heating up (which we followed intensely on this blog).

Then came the end. The unholy alliance of Nokia and Windows, orchestrated by the worst CEO in corporate history, Stephen Elop (aka E-Flop as he's often called in Finland). Nokia's inept CEO messed up what chances the partnership would have had. I predicted that Nokia sales would collapse (as they did) and Nokia's handset unit which had never one in Nokia's history produced a loss - would start to produce losses (which it did) and that Nokia would never return to profits in smartphones (which it didn't) and that Nokia would have to sell its handset business (as it did) and that would be to Microsoft (as it occurred). Not bad predicting, eh.

And a few months after the Nokia deal, Steve Ballmer then put the final nail into the coffin of Windows smartphone hopes - when Microsoft purchased Skype. Once again, as with the previous forecasts, when I explained why Skype was the death-nail to the smartphone OS platform, numerous readers came and loudly protested in the comments, claiming I was a fool. Yet in a matter of weeks, all other major Windows Phone handset makers instantly quit the platform (like SonyEricsson, LG, Motorola, Dell) or dramatically cut down the Windows Phone product portfolio (like Samsung and HTC) and Windows share collapsed from 5% the year before to half that by the time the first Nokia branded phones started to ship on the platform. It was not the Nokia deal that killed Windows, it was Ballmer's purchase of Skype - as I explained and as turned out to be true. The carrier community put Windows smartphones into a sales boycott and Microsoft never recovered. This all happened before Nokia started selling Lumia phones on Windows, but later, when Nokia CEO was asked about a sales boycott, he admitted one existed and that it was hurting all Windows phone makers, including the then-brand-new Nokia Lumia sales. Various other Nokia and Microsoft execs admitted the boycott or in some synonyms like 'carrier reluctance' to sell the Windows OS phones (not just Nokia Lumia but from other Windows vendors too that remained, like Samsung and HTC).

Nokia Lumia edition 1 failed as I predicted. It was replaced by edition 2 on a new version of Windows Phone OS which failed, as I predicted, and then the third edition failed, by which time Elop was demoted and Nokia sold the whole handset business to Microsoft, tossing Elop in the package back to his former employer too. I predicted that Nokia would recover with the telecoms infrastructure business which is at Nokia's core telecoms competence (as it did). I predicted that the ex-Nokia handset business would continue to be a failure at Microsoft, exactly as it did fail too.

Of the Nokia handset business sale to Microsoft, again, I made a series of predictions, that now every single one of my predictions came true. I said that the first recourse at Microsoft to the failing handset business would to fire the incompetent Elop from running the handset business (as it did). I said Microsoft would give their handset unit to another exec to run (which it did) and that exec would have two years until the business unit would be shut (as it happened). I even postulated a fantasy 'Hollywood ending' scenario by which Nokia's handset business would be sold back to Nokia, after it had failed at Microsoft. While that technically did not 'exactly' happen, gosh, it is close, considering how the sale happened to HMD. I then said that the OS platform itself, was obviously doomed because HMD aka 'New Nokia' would release Android phones, not Windows phones - as it happened - and now we see the end of Windows smartphone OS itself. Incidentally about the timing? I said Windows OS at Microsoft had a rough life span as a doomed 'dead man walking' division of never producing profits, of about two cycles of two years ie four years. Look at the calendar? Its autumn 2017. Four years on the dot.

There is nobody else in the industry who gave all this in predictions before they happened. And nobody else who explained each of these events WHEN they happened (no migration path Windows Mobile to Windows Phone, Skype Purchase, Nokia Partnership, Nokia Purchase, ex-Nokia Sale to HMD) and how that would impact Windows smartphone OS platform. Every single step in Windows fall was predicted correctly here on this blog and nobody else saw all that happening. This is now the final part. Yeah. It makes me happy to see Microsoft suffer, I hated Microsoft long before they got involved with Nokia. But regardless of my feelings about the company, the actual events - every single one I predicted, came true, and nothing I ever predicted did NOT come true. I even pointed out the silly forecasts of famous industry analysts who promised Windows would be bigger than the iPhone today in 2017 haha and have something above 20% market share of smartphones today. I was here,  when it happened, and told you exactly what would happen. As it all happened.

Oh. One more bit. I was the first to also tell you that Google won the battle of the century for the OS of all high tech - when Android was passing Windows (all devices, not just smartphones, but PCs included). Nobody else told you that either. It is now becoming apparent to many experts that Google owns the tech world via Android. Who told you first? The dude who saw how Windows was truly collapsing and that iOS was never a threat to Google's world domination plans. Yeah, we'll return to those issues in coming years no doubt. Goodbye Windows smartphones and by darn it, good riddance too! Ballmer gone. Elop gone. Lumia gone. Windows smartphone OS gone. Now when can we see Microsoft the company gone too, please, next?

Comments

[Abdul Muis]

Standing applaus....
Bravo bravo....

Tomi,

I was wondering what do you think of google duo. Voice/Video call aps that now pre-installed on new Android phone.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Abdul

(Thanks!) On Google Duo. Yeah, inevitable, the traditional voice call (and cellular network video call) is gradually disappearing. The big dog is Skype obviously but increasingly any social media service will have its voice call and video call parts starting with Whatsapp obviously. Apple has done its part and there will be lots of Skype clones but Skype has such a huge lead in reach, it may have achieved the lead that it may hold forever (forever in a digital age measurement, say 5-10 years). Similar to the lead Facebook achieved in Social Media and cannot by current tech and market conditions be caught by anyone who might want to become 'the next Facebook' haha like say Twitter or gosh, Linked In.

It may be that Skype will be one of the last parts of 'Microsoft' that consumers still use, once we get rid of Windows on the consumer PCs too (eventually killed off by Android and iOS, on a 5-10 year time frame) haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[BoltmanLives]

I also predicted the downfall of Apple a week prior to iPhone 6 launch... I'm spot on too as Apple is near single market share with decade-old iPhone and Animojis is their big whoop. I am pretty smart too

[NobodyMakesMoneyWithAndroid]

" Elop gone. Lumia gone. Windows smartphone OS gone."

But Elop isn't.

You will refer him countless of times for years to come.

Very good! You know, I am also a good when predicting. :)

[paul]

@NobodyMakesMoneyWithAndroid

> Very good! You know, I am also a good when predicting. :)

You are not! And also you do not have our own blog!

[Jim Glue]

I was wrong. I don't agree with each of your "windows is dead because" points...but it doesn't matter. I was one who believed in the power of Microsoft. I thought they would stick at the mobile OS battle the same way they stayed with both internet browsers/search and the XBox. I never thought they'd succeed spectacularly, but I did think they had what it would take to carve out a 3rd platform.

I thought that IF ANYONE could do it, Msft could. Well, turns out that nobody could do it (Meego, Sailfish, Bada, Tizen, WebOS, Blackberry OS, Firefox OS, Ubuntu Mobile...)

Msft's failure is so utterly complete, Tim Cook/Apple doesn't even make snarky comments about them.

I do like and use several Msft mobile apps and services. Nadella(sp?) giving up on mobile is a win for the rest of Microsoft

[Suba Radhakrishnan]

- the world has been always unfair to Microsoft.
- Google can preload voice apps. Hangouts are equally popular as skype. But Microsoft can't
- Google take advantage of their Google.com home screen to promote chrome but if Microsoft did in their own OS it will be fined.
- Google can unethically copy iOS for android and nobody bats an eye. But the role Microsoft's windows copy from iOS will be spoken for decades.

Let me tell you one thing.
If Microsoft wasn't there, there will be no Google. It was Microsoft's vision to put a computer at every desk in a home.
Google used and using this platform till date to make money.

If Microsoft was given full rights on their OWN OS. Had it made Google and Google Ad words not run on their OS just like how Google made sure none of their apps runs on Windows Phone, Google would be dead. Microsoft can still kill Google but the world will be unfair.

All said, Microsoft came up with an innovative and beautiful UI for windows phone instead of copying iOS like Google did. I am proud of it and I will never have any respect for Google's hypocrite behavior.

[Tester]

Windows Phone was the ugliest and least usable UI ever conceived after the iPhone.

In the end it simply failed because nobody wanted it, neither the carriers nor the end users.
Microsoft had to virtually buy its market share to overcome the utter apathy toward their platform.

Of course it could not succeed with such obstacles in the way, never mind the small number of people who liked it.

As for Microsoft vs. Google: Microsoft once was able to build a really nice user interface, that was back in 1995. In the following two decades they managed to nearly destroy everything of that success, mostly because Ballmer had no clue what to do. The same filtered down to their mobile UI, making all the wrong decisions that made people stay away. Google on the other hand realized how a good mobile UI had to look and work. They may have copied Apple, but so did Microsoft a very long time ago when Windows was born.

And the aftereffects still linger in Windows 10 making parts of that system a pure shitfest. I hope they get gradually phased out, now that the mobile platform is finally dead.

[Winter]

@suba
"If Microsoft was given full rights on their OWN OS. "

If there had been no laws, MS could not have enforced its monopoly. But these same laws limited what MS could do with their monopoly.

Even with the law, MS rather paid $1B per year in fines and settlements than obey the law. Until the courts started to rack up the fines to a good billion per incident.

[Jim Glue]

It's hard to feel sorry for Msft. They have done good things as a company, but they are the poster child for abusing their position and succeeding BECAUSE of terrible things they also do.

Google is just as bad as Msft. Google has done good things too, but they are every bit as willing to abuse their power and succeed via nefarious ways as well.

Amazon...ditto.

Apple....ditto. Apple is able to avoid the monopolist charge via it's premium niche strategy. But, speaking only from within Apple's ecosystem...Apple does great things, and Apple is willing to abuse it's power as well.

It's a toss up between Msft and Google in my mind as to which one has and is willing to abuse their position to the detriment of their competitors.

But...I think Samsung takes the cake in corporate bad practices.

[Markus]

I've noticed a recent uptick in the promotion of MS apps in Android forums. I strongly suspect that they are going to release handsets running their own flavour of Android, probably next year, and this astroturfing is to prepare the ground.

They will not have the Play Store (as that will require bundling Google apps) but they will entice devs to upload their Android apps to their own store, likely by paying them. They will Embrace AOSP, Extend it with apps they can still force people to use (i.e. Office), and try to Extinguish Android that way.

Remember that they funded Cyanogen Inc. that famously threatened to "put a bullet in Google's head". And as everyone here knows, they have a long history of fighting dirty.

What do you guys think?

[Huber]

@Markus:

Microsoft already sells their version of the SGS8 - stock Samsung plus all MS Android-apps:https://www.windowscentral.com/samsung-galaxy-s8-microsoft-edition-everything-you-need-know

But releasing an AOSP-fork without the Google Play services is a recipe for disaster: Customers don't want this. The return-rate will be sky-high when buyers realize that Google Maps etc.is missing.

Also you have to keep in mind that alot of Android apps use Google Play features, e.g embedding maps of using the Play store's payment service. These apps have to be accordingly adjusted before running well on pure AOSP, and you need a replacement for each and any Google service.

Even for the likes of Amazon and Microsoft this is no easy problem to solve.

MS is out, end of story.

[Tester]

@Markus:

I think it's bullshit. They failed once and lost a lot of money in the process. They got a new CEO in the meantime - one who started an exit strategy nearly the day he took the office but had to wait until now to pull the plug for good.

The bottom line is, they have absolutely nothing to gain from maintaining their own mobile OS now - they cannot monetize it against the competition and they'd have to fight an uphill battle against two very strong competitors and wouldn't have anything to show for it that could get them the customers they need.

If a new mobile OS is supposed to materialize it cannot just be an iteration on existing technology - it would have to be magnitudes better - comparable to iOS against feature phones.

[Jim Glue]

Hi Markus,

I wouldn't put it past the Balmer Microsoft, but I don't see it today. There is no upside for Microsoft. They are embracing Google Android and iOS. They want Microsoft apps and services used by anyone with a smartphone. I use several myself. They have made arrangements to have them preinstalled already.

There is no upside for Mstr to be at war with Google over Android at this point. No money to be made selling Android handsets.

Embrace, Extend, Extinguish is the old, tried and true Mstr strategy. I'm sure they will still try this wherever they can. They simply can't do on mobile what they did when they owned the PC platform.

[Malcolm]

I was one of the last Windows Mobile dead-enders until recently when I switched to a new Nokia 6 Android phone. Unlike some of the other commenters here, I found the User Interface, with the Live Tiles, to be its most distinctive and interesting feature. Definitely more beautiful and futuristic looking than the dead mackerel eyes/Windows 3.1 look of my new Android icons.

Alas, the live tiles were so bug infested that they brought to mind the dictum of a broken clock, which shows the correct time twice a day (in the USA, at least). No one, not even Microsoft itself, apparently could get them to operate correctly. They were a warm and reassuring presence, though, as they twinkled through your contacts and photo albums.

Not that Android is any better, my GMail dead mackerel already inexplicably shows the same wrong number of new email messages. And don't get me started on how it's a "feature" for Android to not support user-specific SMS text tones.

Always a pleasure reading your analyses of the industry, as painful as they can be to read being a business applications developer using Visual Studio for the Windows platform.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Suba

(Welcome to the blog). I hear you. But I am guessing you weren't around the tech scene in the 1980s when Microsoft started on its journey to become the definitive Evil Empire. Every single rival Microsoft had in any field it was interested in, Microsoft crushed - by illegal means. The remedies from lawsuits and punitive government actions were too late to save the rivals. That is where many of us older tech geeks learned to hate Microsoft like no other. This is decades before they got into mobile. They used their monopolistic position with DOS and Windows on personal computers to throttle and often totally crush rivals from WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 to Novell Netware and on and on. Then when they came to mobile, they continued right with the same song, starting with the raping of their first 'partner' smartphone maker, Sendo of Britain (stealing their intellectual property and giving it to HTC who was then next Microsoft's lapdog).

This recent 'history repeats itself' and 'unfairness' such as 'why is Microsoft blamed for Skype but Google not for doing similar things' is also a fair point. In the context of the above, it is perhaps a more 'understandable' point. But there is an angle you are probably not aware of. The issue of Skype itself, and the timing of the carrier boycott against Microsoft.

Today most major consumer software providers have some type of so-called OTT service like Skype on voice calls or Whatsapp on messaging. These are eating what remains of the 'cash cows' of how traditional telecoms operators/carriers made their money before the internet and before mobile. The voice telephony service alone was worth over half a Trillion dollars to fixed landline telecoms carriers/operators about a decade ago. That is far bigger than the TOTAL internet, bigger than TOTAL PC industry, etc. So it was a ton of money.

They were not afraid of 'small' VOIP providers like say Vonage, who catered to a tiny corporate specialist market and were leading a change in tech. The carriers/telco operators THEMSELVES all deployed VOIP in some manner into their networks too. Skype was different because Skype didn't 'play fair'. Skype was based on grabbing consumer market share, by offering an ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE product for free. Skype never made any profits, and didn't care - because of the massive 'growth in users' they always managed to find another richer owner, to buy Skype and pay more for the fun. So the carriers/telcos hated Skype with an unfathomable passion, because Skype was like an aronist, just burning down the house - a very valuable house.

So back in 2011 when Microsoft bought Skype, there were no global viable major VOIP providers (yet, they would come) and Skype was the only big boy around. And so the full hatred of the carrier community was pointed at Skype. And when Microsoft bought Skype, that was now refocused on Microsoft (and its mobile mission, Windows Phone).

So while technically it is fair to compare say Google Duo to Skype, in the historical context of WHEN this happened, Skype was the only threat around and hence it got a far bigger reaction than what Apple or Google or Facebook can now expect from the same community. Yes, if you love Microsoft, you can fairly comment, that his is unfair. But Microsoft didn't become evil in 2011. It was sleeping in the Evil bed it had built for 30 years prior to that. And as to Skype, at the time, it was the wrong thing for ANY company to do. Had Nokia or Google or Apple or Vodafone bought Skype, they would have received the IDENTICAL WRATH of the carrier community. I was there, I saw it and heard it at the various strategy sessions and saw the fear and loathing. And obviously I reported it contemporaneously on this blog as a warning to the industry (and to Microsoft).

So yeah, I hear you, it is kind of unfair that others get to do what Microsoft did, and are not punished the same way. But Microsoft had a long history of being the most evil of evil tech companies; and Skype was the worst red flag imaginable for the carrier community back in 2011 when that happened.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[chithanh]

The Windows fan community is lamenting on the usual Microsoft-centric websites how Satya Nadella backstabbed Windows on smartphones.

Then some uninformed journalists wrote that Microsoft arrived too late on mobile - forgetting or too young to remember the time before WP7.

Then we had Microsoft's own Joe Belfiore claiming that they tried very hard to entice developers to develop for Windows Phone. Yes, handing out free devices to Symbian app developers, paying companies to make apps, writing apps yourselves even - but at the same time not giving a s**t about repeatedly obsoleting their code during the .NET Compact/XNA/Silverlight/WinRT/UWP transitions.

[John A]

Windows Phone/Mobile are gone. But I dont Microsoft itself will go away. Yes they might be a new IBM as some sort.

Maybe the future for Windows actually are Android? Bill Gates and Joe Belfiore using android phones now. They bringing the Edge webbrowser there to.
So I guess we might see a android device with Microsoft pre-installed apps of some kind.

Without a mobile precense it will be hard for Microsoft in the future. So Microsoft apps on android are better than nothing at all I suppose.

[Abdul Muis]

@ Tomi

Thanks for the lengthy explanation of skype / evil empire / google allo timing. This time I'm 100% Crystal clear. Perhaps, this is why google don't seriously do IM at that time.

@ John

I'm surprised that joe belfiore didn't get fired for his lousy metro/modern UI.

[Abdul Muis]

There is a way for micro$oft to steal google thunder.... DirectX & Xbox.

Microsoft could create directX for android, and make an app store that have directX. So, the Xbox/PC game developer can port their game easily.

Furthermore, microsoft could make that if buy game in Xbox, you can redownload the game thru Microsoft apps store free (if the apps for mobike version also available).