Whispers From the Void - When nothing is going on in tech, a few brief observations on the occasional news tidbits

This seems to be an exceptionally quiet summer for tech. I don't remember this quiet a summer in mobile/tech news in 20 years.. but there have been a few slight items that may be worth mentioning.

Nokia comeback ie HMD. In India Amazon has seen 1M preorders of Nokia 6 in one month (before it ships). That is a VERY healthy sign for HMD.

Talking of Nokia, haha, this is the 'real' Nokia not HMD - Apple reached settlement to pay $2B yes BILLION in royalties to Nokia out of iPhone patent infringements and a long-running lawsuit. Yes. Apple admits by this action (while not admitting in public) that it had been stealing from Nokia intellectual property for YEARS. And this proves finally and conclusively that even APPLE admits, that Nokia was the leader that they stole from. Which confirms my long-running thesis we've often laughed at on this blog - to see what will be on the next iPhone, just look at a 3 year old Nokia flagship haha... Yes, Apple now paid $2 Billion dollars. 

By the way, can you imagine working for a tech company that was 3 years ahead of Apple - AHEAD of Apple - and twice the size of Apple in Apple's 'main' business ie smartphones (which wasn't even YOUR main business at that time, when Nokia's main business was still 'featurephones' ie dumbphones) and then your CEO declares that your company is sinking and you have to jump off a burning oil platform? You'd be suicidal and know your new CEO was a maniac. And obviously he was, the worst CEO in corporate history - Stephen Elop. Yes Elop, the E-Flop as many called him in Finland, the dimwit CEO who took the company 3 years ahead of Apple, selling more than 2x the number of smartphones than Apple, profitably, and the only handset maker that had never reported a loss even in two tech recessions, either in its dumbphone unit or its smartphone unit - and the CEO threw all that away.

PS Windows Phone is of course dead. An increasing number of major app developers are now abandoning the support of the platform. It is dead. It has been dead for years.

Now onto other companies. What is it with Samsung. Hey, first CONGRATULATIONS. Did you notice it? Samsung just passed Intel as the world's largest chip-maker !!! Wow. First Sony (TV sets) then Nokia (handsets) now Intel (chips). Wow. Samsung rulez...

And what about our favorite race? Is it possible that Sammy is going to bring us DIFFERENTIATION? We have 3 items of interesting news. There is a new FLIP phone Sammy with dual large screens inside the flip. Interesting experiment in form factor. What about camera races? Rumors say Note 8 will have 3x optical zoom. Oh, I'd love to see some real competition again in camera tech on smartphones.... and what about the thing we most want in our phones? BATTERY LIFE. Rumors suggest Galaxy 9 will feature a BIGGER battery. While Apple obsess about making the ridiculously-thin iPhone EVEN THINNER (who said their phone was too THICK?) like a supermodel attempting to slim down by throwing up all the little bit of food they temporarily digested - as the iPhone focuses on silly-thin specs, Sammy finally seems to have listened to what consumers BEG for - better battery life. Gosh, a bigger battery in Galaxy 9 - that could be another killer feature where Sammy leads the iPhone for several years again... good move (if the rumor turns out to be true, of course)

Talking of rumors - Apple rumors suggest iPhone will launch on time. Lets hope so. And here's to wishing Apple give us a monster iPhone that will celebrate 10 years of iPhones and set the Christmas sales period on fire. (Although all rumors of the new specs seem to suggest nothing spectacular at all)

Did I mention Windows Phone is dead? Oh, and Elop was the Worst CEO Ever? Good.

Comments

[Wayneborean]

There's been some reviews of the Nokia 6 on Amazon. Overall people seem pretty satisfied with it.

https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/B072MFT1VK/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_cmps_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews

[Abdul Muis]

I only wish New Nokia has a bigger screen & bigger battery.

[Summer]

@Wayneborean
And Lumia 900 had 5-star reviews in Amazon as well. Let's see sales data when it's in.

[Huber]

"Check, check and check. iPhone is fantastic slomo camera, it has (7+) additional wide angle camera and the facetime/selfie camera is very good."

The Sony Xperia XZ Premium has 960FPS slow motion. There is no way in hell the iPhone can compete with this. Also, it hardly has the best-in-class selfie camera.

But be it as it may, the resident Apple-lunatics behave as always, pretending Apple is the best in every single feature and has no downside at all. Ridiculuous. I never ever have seen a single product without a downside. My Apple-using friends complain a lot, unlike 5 years ago. But they are Apple customers, not iSheep, which probably makes the difference.

[Huber]

"AS IF there was a single phone that had all those features and thus is "vastly superior" to an iPhone.

Just depends on what you PERSONALLY like most"

I completely agree. For me, any phone with unlockable bootloader and good developer support is vastly superior to iPhones. But most people don't care about such things, their mileage may vary.

To each its own, I just cannot stand fanatics.

[Tester]

@Huber:

" My Apple-using friends complain a lot, unlike 5 years ago."

Same here. And tell me what you want, this is not a good sign for Apple. Sure, the iSheep will accept this as an inevitability, but what if the rest of the user base eventually decides that if there's too much to complain they may just buy something cheaper instead...

[Jack]

@Jim
It's 600€ (roughly US $700) for Nokia 8.

[E.Casais]

"tiny bezels" as a "significant feature"?

Only in the sense that it signifies that manufacturers are desperately trying to compensate the lack of genuine innovation with faddish look&feel gimmicks -- today "tiny bezels", yesterday "edged display", earlier "ultra-slim".

Apart from that, all HMD devices so far are pretty much middle of the road. The Nokia 8 does not have any USP justifying its price. I do not see how HMD can be successful with that approach.

[James Glu]

Hi E,

I do see value in more screen in a smaller phone. The Galaxy S8 is a beautiful phone. Not sure that the curved edges are a hindrance to usage or not, but they are pretty.

An iPhone 7 Plus sized screen in a phone just a bit larger than an iPhone 7? Yes, I'd find that useful.

But whatever you or I may think, Apple and Samsung have been and will be spending big money making those "infinity screens" a must have. HMD has a "bothie" as its marquee feature. I don't see that HMD has brought forth an iPhone/Galaxy S class competitor to go with that price.

[Pekka]

Huawei is not gonna pass Apple sales in 2019 nor 2020. Huawei is barely growing at this point(basically 0 increase in sales from 2016 to 2017). Next year Apple is gonna release 3 bezel less iphones model with Oled screens (5,2, 5,8 and 6,4 inch). These phones will sell like butter just as iphone 6 did but probably much more. Huawei stands no chance, you read it here first.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Pekka:

Apple has saturated their markets.

Huawei will take a huge chunk of India, Apple will mayhe get 2-3% of that market.

So while yes, the latest iPhone will sell like hotcakes, just like iPhone 7, and 6s did...

It is a saturated market now, so the only way Apple can go is a slow and steady decline.

Oh, sure, they *can* get a new iPhone 6 smash hit - but then, again, the following year will be disastrous in sales.

[Abdul Muis]

It's been a couple of days since Nokia 8. I think Tomi write a 200 pages essay about it.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Sorry, it's you guys that are in denial.

The only growth left is the low-end smartphone segment. The good news is, there is a lot of growth there.

Now, question: Does Apple cater to the low-end segment? Nope.

Is Apple interested in catering to low-end segment? Nope.

So, I'm with Tomi on this one - Apple growth could still happen if the stars align perfectly for another iPhone 6 moment. They cannot, however, grow past 250M annual sales, and they are most likely already in terminal market share decline, and perhaps unit share decline as well.

Huawei though? That is a different beast alltogether.

[Tester]

@PWE:

I generally agree with your prognosis.
There's one thing, though that might fool all those iSheep that still believe in iMagic:

As prices go down, Apple's share of the premium segment will grow because unlike Android where there's cheap alternatives, in Apple-land these do not exist. Obviously that's another bullet point that may convince them that everything's fine and peachy and eternal profits are guaranteed.

I think the real disaster for Apple will strike if the price difference between a 'good enough' Android and an iPhone becomes so large that customers actually start to defect. Of course, because by all standard metrics this scenario cannot be detected it will eventually come as a sudden surprise when the time is due. Meanwhile, Apple's market share will slowly but steadily decline - the occasional hit phone nonwithstanding.

In any case, we should keep in mind that the predictions for how Apple developed after the iPhone 6 matched what the sceptics predicted, not the Apple fans, which extrapolated endless future magic growth (which never came.) - and they still do.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Tester:

Agreed. If Apple takes over the premium segment completely - then Android phones *will* eat their lunch once they become "good enough".

If you can get three Android phones that does *everything* your iPhone does, only slightly worse, at the same price, would you switch?

[E.Casais]

"The question is - can Sammy defend it's turf against Apple,"

Yes, but it will remain a very hard tussle.

" against Google,"

easily;

" Essential and Nokia 8"

Oh yes, easily.

"....AND...the commoditized "good enough" phones."

No, and that is where the problem for Samsung (and Sony, and...) lies.

Mid-range phones are good, and in many cases have a better feature/price ratio. Samsung customers can always smoothly go down in range without loss -- and keep the Samsung UI, accessories and the like if they need to, while remaining in the Google environment.

Apple customers can only go high-end and must commit to keeping within the Apple environment. Going down in range also means the hassle of changing the service environment.

And no, the 3-4 years old Apple model is _not_ a cheap phone -- I already proved that those older Apple models remain amongst the most expensive mobile phones anyway.

So yes, the future looks much brighter for Apple in its well-delimited, firmly occupied and fortified turf than for Samsung (or the other Android players) in the vast remaining field of mobile which is a battleground without borders for movement warfare amongst a myriad players.

"Apple will also be there for when today's cheap Android customers move upscale in life and can afford a premium phone."

Ah, but that is a very uncertain assumption.

Low-income people living in Asia and Africa spend a total monthly average of mobile services a full order of magnitude lower than what a typical mobile subscription costs in Western developed countries. When will their income have increased by an order of magnitude to afford an iPhone? Two generations? But that is where the only growth market for smartphone is...

Furthermore, it should not have escaped you that, even in developed countries, incomes have stagnated or have been going down for at least a couple of decades amongst the middle- and lower-class. This has already bitten: a few years ago, as the effects of the financial crisis were the most deeply felt, units sales of mobile phones and ASP went down in several European countries (e.g. Spain). Overall, you are assuming that the general socio-economic environment will greatly improve -- I am personally rather pessimistic.

I have therefore what I thing is a more realistic view for the foreseeable future: there will be a persistent leakage of high-end Android customers to Apple (remaining high-end) _and_ to mid-range and perhaps entry-level Android devices as well.

The leakage of Apple customers to Android will remain negligible as long as Apple does not botch in a major way, and the upscaling of entry-level Android to Apple will remain marginal as well. That should explain the evolution of Apple and Android-manufacturers ASP, market share, and unit sales.

[LongAAP1997]

"Sorry, it's you guys that are in denial.
The only growth left is the low-end smartphone segment. The good news is, there is a lot of growth there.
Now, question: Does Apple cater to the low-end segment? Nope."

What the hell are you talking about?????

With the iPod Apple first started from the high end and then expanded to cheaper categories and exhausted everybody else from the market. They now expanded iPad line to even higher end and lowered the price for the cheapest iPad. iPad sales turned back to the growth. They are spreading the "umbrella". Same thing happens after few weeks with the iPhone. With the Mac line they cover everything from 500 dollars to over 20000 dollars. You say that Apple can't do this when the evidence and history tells totally different story. And BTW same happens at the moment with the Apple Watch.

Apple plays this game using their own play book. They are extremely agile considering how huge they are and they are ready to take risks and try things. But please do not try to teach them. Instead try to learn from them, because they are the ones who does better than any other in the business.

[Poit Piot]

@Piot

Tomi = calling iSheep by name = brave
Piot = acting like iSheep = bad

[Abdul Muis]

The thing about iPhone. Its sustainable as of now because the apps development still count iPhone as a platform that need to be supported.

Once iPhone user low enough, and the need to develop/support apple is gone south, thats where the problem start, and the domino effect unstoppable.

[Wayneborean]

Maybe Tomi should have another contest - who comes closest to guessing Apple's sales gets a whatever.