Whispers From the Void - When nothing is going on in tech, a few brief observations on the occasional news tidbits

This seems to be an exceptionally quiet summer for tech. I don't remember this quiet a summer in mobile/tech news in 20 years.. but there have been a few slight items that may be worth mentioning.

Nokia comeback ie HMD. In India Amazon has seen 1M preorders of Nokia 6 in one month (before it ships). That is a VERY healthy sign for HMD.

Talking of Nokia, haha, this is the 'real' Nokia not HMD - Apple reached settlement to pay $2B yes BILLION in royalties to Nokia out of iPhone patent infringements and a long-running lawsuit. Yes. Apple admits by this action (while not admitting in public) that it had been stealing from Nokia intellectual property for YEARS. And this proves finally and conclusively that even APPLE admits, that Nokia was the leader that they stole from. Which confirms my long-running thesis we've often laughed at on this blog - to see what will be on the next iPhone, just look at a 3 year old Nokia flagship haha... Yes, Apple now paid $2 Billion dollars. 

By the way, can you imagine working for a tech company that was 3 years ahead of Apple - AHEAD of Apple - and twice the size of Apple in Apple's 'main' business ie smartphones (which wasn't even YOUR main business at that time, when Nokia's main business was still 'featurephones' ie dumbphones) and then your CEO declares that your company is sinking and you have to jump off a burning oil platform? You'd be suicidal and know your new CEO was a maniac. And obviously he was, the worst CEO in corporate history - Stephen Elop. Yes Elop, the E-Flop as many called him in Finland, the dimwit CEO who took the company 3 years ahead of Apple, selling more than 2x the number of smartphones than Apple, profitably, and the only handset maker that had never reported a loss even in two tech recessions, either in its dumbphone unit or its smartphone unit - and the CEO threw all that away.

PS Windows Phone is of course dead. An increasing number of major app developers are now abandoning the support of the platform. It is dead. It has been dead for years.

Now onto other companies. What is it with Samsung. Hey, first CONGRATULATIONS. Did you notice it? Samsung just passed Intel as the world's largest chip-maker !!! Wow. First Sony (TV sets) then Nokia (handsets) now Intel (chips). Wow. Samsung rulez...

And what about our favorite race? Is it possible that Sammy is going to bring us DIFFERENTIATION? We have 3 items of interesting news. There is a new FLIP phone Sammy with dual large screens inside the flip. Interesting experiment in form factor. What about camera races? Rumors say Note 8 will have 3x optical zoom. Oh, I'd love to see some real competition again in camera tech on smartphones.... and what about the thing we most want in our phones? BATTERY LIFE. Rumors suggest Galaxy 9 will feature a BIGGER battery. While Apple obsess about making the ridiculously-thin iPhone EVEN THINNER (who said their phone was too THICK?) like a supermodel attempting to slim down by throwing up all the little bit of food they temporarily digested - as the iPhone focuses on silly-thin specs, Sammy finally seems to have listened to what consumers BEG for - better battery life. Gosh, a bigger battery in Galaxy 9 - that could be another killer feature where Sammy leads the iPhone for several years again... good move (if the rumor turns out to be true, of course)

Talking of rumors - Apple rumors suggest iPhone will launch on time. Lets hope so. And here's to wishing Apple give us a monster iPhone that will celebrate 10 years of iPhones and set the Christmas sales period on fire. (Although all rumors of the new specs seem to suggest nothing spectacular at all)

Did I mention Windows Phone is dead? Oh, and Elop was the Worst CEO Ever? Good.

Comments

[E.Casais]

There are no news about outsiders either (Jolla, Fairphone), and the noise about the Pixel has almost completely receded.

As for the promising Google Tango technology, the single successor to the initial Lenovo Phab2 Pro has been the Asus Zenfone AR ZS571KL (about which the technosphere seems to have been silent). Another Google dud (after so very many of them?)

"Rumors say Note 8 will have 3x optical zoom."

High-quality, high-factor zoom is still a major issue that leading cameraphone manufacturers will continue to tackle with a variety of approaches.

"all rumors of the new [iPhone] specs seem to suggest nothing spectacular at all"

which is nothing out of the ordinary. Apple tends to introduce major changes in its mobile phones only in a two-year rhythm. The iPhone 7 brought significant changes already -- in the interface (e.g. home button, ditching the 3.5 jack) and camera.

"this proves finally and conclusively that even APPLE admits, that Nokia was the leader that they stole from."

There were supposed to be 32 patents in question, but I could only find out the details about 18 of them (the Landgerichte Mannheim, Düsseldorf and München do not seem to have an electronic docket where one could peruse the claimants' documentation).

6 of them deal with video coding, 2 with subpixel interpolation (relevant for Pureview?), 1 with automatic translation of natural language into database queries, 1 about the design of smartphone chassis, 1 about remote device management.

There are furthermore 7 patents dealing with wireless (1 about dealing with unreliable RF signal, 3 with optimizations of implementation of RF subsystem, 2 about optimizing power management, 1 antenna design).

That the patents Apple was infringing deal with image processing and especially wireless -- bolster my contention regarding the actual core competencies of Apple, and that I exposed in other comments elsewhere.

[Wayne Borean]

Tomi,

You forgot to mention that Windows Phone is dead.

Fifteen years ago everyone in North American tech was terrified of Microsoft. Now everyone ignores them.

The mighty have fallen, and no one cares.

But it was fun to watch.

[Wayneborean]

Hmm. Let's try this again, and see if my profile pic shows.

[Wayneborean]

Ah. You have to sign in with Twitter before commenting!

[Abdul Muis]

@TomiC1uckzacde

Please grow up.
You're not successful in intimidating Tomi
But you're successful in making you look unintelligent.

[Abdul Muis]

@E. Casais

"Another Google dud (after so very many of them?)"

If you're affraid of failure. You already failed.
This is what makes Google a Google now.

[E.Casais]

"If you're affraid of failure. You already failed."

I am not sure about your message, but clearly Google has often launched promising technologies, in which it invested quite a lot, and made a big initial splash, only to seem to lose interest in them very soon thereafter.

I mean, not redefining them after experience with the initial and relaunching a V2.0, but simply letting them die on the vine without any effort at improvement or reformulation.

Google glasses is a prominent example. I was quite impressed by Tango initially. Now it seems to be handled in a "stepmotherly way" as Germans say (only two devices in 9 months, no prominent services, no promotion).

[E.Casais]

"Perhaps taking pictures of birds is something Samsung customers do more of than photos of people."

Yes, photographing animals is a very nice use case. Although 3x is probably insufficient for birds.

"To get long and bright, you get heavy and big."

There is no eschewing the laws of physics.

Whether relying upon monster sensors+optics like Nokia did in the 808, or clever optics like the ASUS Zenfone Zoom, sacrificing the ultra-slim phone body is unavoidable. Personally, I do not mind handling a bulkier frame. These are no bulkier than what most phones were 7 years ago, anyway, so I wonder why marketing people seem to think it is such a big deal. A monster like the Samsung K Zoom, on the other hand, clearly oversteps the usability boundaries.

[E.Casais]

'I just can't help but see the 3x as a "we can beat Apple by putting 1 more x" and "damn the consequences".'

Nokia 808, Asus Zenfone Zoom already provided 3x, so it would not even be a first.

On the other hand, we should remember this is just a rumour, so there is little point in getting over-excited about it (for or against).

[PAULO BERNARDOCKI]

Hi Tommy. Any insights about Huawei? Looks that it is quickly grabing ground from Samsung.

[Lullz]

@E.Casais

Nokia 808 provided about 2x zoom for 8MP images. Maybe just slightly more but nowhere close to 3x.

The iPhone 7 Plus has 5.6x lossless zoom for 1080p video while Nokia 808 has about 5x lossless zoom for 1080p videos.

About Apple paying Nokia 1.7 Billion.

Apple paying 2 Billion to Nokia is lost of money, but may be much or it's not that much depending on for what time period that money is paid for. In 2008 decade Nokia paid even more to Qualcomm in a similar situation. Now Apple paid 1.7 Billion while in 2008 Nokia paid Qualcomm 2.3 Billion.

Now I wouldn't be that sure that Apple paying Nokia 1.7 Billion would mean Nokia is the leader or Apple stole from Nokia. I wouldn't also be sure that Nokia would have been stealing from Qualcomm in 2008 or that Qualcomm would have been the leader in some way even while Nokia had to pay Qualcomm 2.3 Billion for using Qualcomm patents without licensing them. Pretty much the same Apple did now.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Paulo

Welcome to the blog. Nobody can possibly 'grab ground quickly' in the Top 3 of mobile phones (unless the top dog is doing something stupid like Nokia announcing a switch to Windows). The mobile market is different from other consumer electronics where there is a 'gatekeeper' in the market space - the mobile operators. They get to put their fingers on the scale, to either help someone into the market or more likely - to prevent someone from growing too quickly. See how long it took best mobile company in history to get into the Top 3 (Apple). The carriers/operators were the gatekeepers.

So same is true of Huawei vs Samsung. Huawei IS doing VERY well (compared to say pretender Xiaomi who briefly popped into the Top 3 and then fast fizzled even out of the Top 10). But H is growing steadily, building on its base (China, Africa) and then gradually growing into other areas (rest of Asia, Europe, now Americas). They build their carrier relationships powered in great part by their sales of ALSO the network hardware (like Nokia and Ericsson used to do). So please ignore this quarter's momentary glory (and that of Q3). In ANNUAL sales, Huawei has shown steady growth last 5 years: 2011: 4%, 2012 4.5%, 2013 5%, 2014 6%, 2015 7%, 2016 9% (and currently annual share is about 10% for 2017). This is not anything like 'grab ground quickly' haha.. This is STEADY methodical meticulous marketing work, done deliberately to become a sustainable Top 3 and to start to challenge Apple NEXT YEAR and beyond. H will pass A around year 2019 or 2020 in annual market share...

To understand why sudden temporary phenomena like Xiaomi could come and mess up the picture - that was China, when China became the largest smartphone market, and China was in hypergrowth stage - then if you were the most sold smartphone of China (that quarter) you'd pop temporarily into the Top 3. But that is not sustainable as China isn't large enough and now India is growing faster and has become the second largest market, so it isn't even if you do 'China and USA'...

So for a brief moment it was possible to become temporarily a 'major player' simply because you had the 'hit phone' of the moment in China. Even that is now fading, and if you have a hit phone in today's China, that means you're only a Top 10 player, not Top 3. But Huawei, it is genuinely the world's (not just China's) third-bestselling phone and they are building that market systematically. They are here to stay.

Now why was Huawei so close to Apple? That is because Apple has its launch pattern where they do their big phone in the Autumn. That means their big sales jump in any year is for Christmas. And obviously, for the rest of the year, their sales then fall, until the next jump for the next Christmas. So Apple is now at its 'annual bottom' which is not the real market situation, only that Apple has an unusual sales pattern. If you look at annual sales, Apple is steady at approx 15% range, well above Huawei (and far below Samsung) ie past few years Apple has had market shares of 2013 16%, 2014 15%, 2015 16%, 2016 15%, this year probably 14%). The momentary moment of glory for Huawei is an illusion this year, they are not really that close to Apple, it is only because this is Apple's lowest point in their annual sales pattern.

But NEXT year the race is real, and Huawei may well pass Apple in one or two quarters, and like I said, I expect H to pass Apple for annual sales around 2019 or 2020. They definitely will (unless their management does something utterly stupid like haha Nokia)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[E.Casais]

"They jumped on Android early. They were also already a mobile powerhouse having popularized the flip phone. [...] So what happened?"

The first Motorola phone running Android seems to have been the Cliq -- but barely one month before the Milestone (called Droid in North America).

Those were released in October and November 2009. At a time when Motorola was already on the ropes -- both as a mobile phone and as a mobile networking manufacturer.

Thus, Motorola was no longer the "mobile powerhouse" of once. Already in mid-2011, it was acquired by Google, just as HTC, LG and Samsung had all overtaken Motorola in the Android market.

What happened? Motorola was probably paying years of inconsistent product strategy, heavily reliant on single-bestseller bets (the RAZR, then the Milestone), the subsequent exploitation thereof (through numerous variations and new editions of the successful original), and the brand degradation due to releasing too many re-boots of the same product with limited innovation.

By that time, Motorola could not have done better with Android than competitors (whether they held to their OS or adopted Android). As an organization, Motorola had already deteriorated too much, and lost quite a lot of good people and skills.

Neither Google nor Lenovo have been able to revive it (Motorola has long disappeared from the top-10 vendors), despite producing some respectable devices since being acquired.

[E.Casais]

"Wireless charging is first of all slow as **i*."

There is only one advantage of note with wireless charging: the phone port does not incur the stress caused by constantly plugging in and out the device for charging -- possibly desoldering the port socket in the long run.

[Huber]

@LongApple: "The problem is that all those things are not in one phone. They are in the different phones from different companies."

This is because you hardly can cram all Android features into a single phone. Sony has an additional slow motion camera, LG has an additional wide angle camera, other phones focus on the selfie camera etcetc.

This is called CHOICE.

[deadonthefloor]

Windows phone is dead, but the cellular PC is on the horizon.
With flavours running Intel and ARM, it looks to be an interesting new form factor.
That's where I'll be spending my dollars. I will never own a G or A phone.

[Wayneborean]

Slightly off-topic, but Apple TV has expanded...

Kind of. Apple is moving into the streaming video market with $1 Billion clams to buy shows.

If you have a good story idea, strike while the iron is hot.

[Winter]

@Jim Glue
"I can't imagine what an Android phone would have to be to make me switch."

An Apple Logo?

@LongApple
"The best iPhone has everything and you do not need to sacrify anything."

Sit down, take a few deep breaths. Maybe a cold shower will help?

[Perttu]

So... Nokia 8 - the flagship of the "new Nokia" was launched and everyone here talks about iPhone?
The world has truly changed.

[Lullz]

@Perttu

"So... Nokia 8 - the flagship of the "new Nokia" was launched and everyone here talks about iPhone?"

It has been like that for almost 10 years. Almost every single phone launched during this decade has been compared to iPhone. The iPhone is the industry standard for comparing different phones.

@Winter

On iPhone almost everything is good and there is rarely a risk of sacrificing any features. There are of course some occasions where that happens but stuff like 3.5mm connector do not happen that often. With Android you really need to study the alternatives and spend lots of time there if you want to make sure something important is not missing. With iPhone everything important missing is easy to see. The missing features are all over internet and super easy to find. That's because almost every phone is compared to iPhone.