iPhone Q2 and IDC and Strategy Analytics Top 5 Smartphone Numbers.

The Apple Q2 Results gave pretty much expected iPhone unit sales (ignoring the last-minute hysteria of some analysts) ie Apple hit pretty much a 12% sales level of 41.0 million units. We now await to find out the other data points we'll get and I'll do the Top 10. Meanwhile IDC and Strategy Analytics both gave their Q2 numbers for Top 5 and they both agree, its Samsung first, iPhone second, Huawei third, Oppo fourth and Xiaomi fifth. They also agree on market shares of others except SA had a slightly larger total market size, so by their numbers, iPhone market share would be rounded off to 11% if we round off market share to full points. In that case SA would have iPhone and Huawei both at 11% (while H is smaller, they are rounded 'up' while iPhone is rounded 'down' to 11%). So even by SA numbers, Huawei did not quite catch up to Apple (yet). They will. Probably this time next year Huawei will start to hit quarterly sales ahead of iPhone and the quite possibly in year 2019 Huawei would pass the iPhone in annual smartphone sales dropping Apple to third rank. As I've said consistently on every quarterly review since Sammy took its top spot, they are SAFELY the world's largest smartphone maker as they are. Nobody, neither Apple nor Huawei (nor haha Xiaomi) is challenging their lead. The silly articles that suggest that are, well written by writers perhaps you should stop following.... :-)

 

Anyway, getting ready to return from vacation, I'll do the Top 10 when we have all the info in that we can utilize. Meanwhile we know the Top 5.. :-)

 

Comments

[Peter F.]

Please let us know your take on Nokia numbers and some background on Nummela.

[Abdul Muis]

Some great iPhone number

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/8/3/1017993-15017920402348707_origin.jpg

[Abdul Muis]

As usual, Tim Cook way to save money, means iUser were milked over the edge.....

Judge Allowing iPhone 4 Owners to Pursue Class Action Suit Against Apple
http://fortune.com/2017/07/31/iphone-4-lawsuit-apple-facetime/

Apple has failed in its bid to dismiss a lawsuit claiming it disabled the popular FaceTime video conferencing feature on older iPhones to force users to upgrade.

U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh ruled late on Friday that iPhone 4 and 4S users can pursue nationwide class action claims that Apple intentionally "broke" FaceTime to save money from routing calls through servers owned by Akamai Technologies.

Neither Apple nor lawyers for the plaintiffs immediately responded on Monday to requests for comment.

Apple began using Akamai's servers after losing a lawsuit in 2012 in which VirnetX Holding claimed that FaceTime technology infringed its patents.

Testimony from a 2016 retrial in that case showed that Apple paid Akamai $50 million in one six-month period.

The plaintiffs said Apple eventually created a cheaper alternative for its iOS 7 operating system, and in April 2014 disabled FaceTime on iOS 6 and earlier systems.

Koh said the plaintiffs alleged some measurable loss to their phones' value, and could try to show that Cupertino, California-based Apple's conduct constituted a trespass and violated state consumer protection laws.

The San Jose, California-based judge twice quoted from what the plaintiffs said was an Apple employee's internal email characterizing iOS 6 users as "basically screwed" because of the disabling of FaceTime.

She also rejected Apple's argument that the plaintiffs suffered no economic loss because FaceTime was a "free" service.

"FaceTime is a 'feature' of the iPhone and thus a component of the iPhone's cost," Koh said in a footnote. "Indeed, Apple (aapl) advertised FaceTime as 'one more thing that makes an iPhone an iPhone.'"

The plaintiffs are led by Christina Grace of Marin County, California, and Ken Potter of San Diego County, California, who both owned the iPhone 4. Akamai (akam) was not named as a defendant.

[Abdul Muis]

BTW,

samsung beat Apple sales in USA.

[Baron99]

@Leebase
"Nothing does well compared to the iPhone."

But the iPhone is still just a copy of LG Prada, right?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Interesting, my linear toy model predicted 41.75 M units...

Which seems to be right on the money (41.03 M units)!

The moving average market share was predficted to 14.25%, actual moving average is 14.20% (This assumes a global average of 363M this quarter). Market share is slowly declining.

[Wayne Borean]

@PWE,

Nice calculations.

It will be interesting to see if Huawei has the marketing skills to pull this off, and how exactly they do it.

And of course I'm waiting to see how well Nokia does. I like comeback stories!

[John A]

I waiting for the Nokia 8. But in general I think we will not see HMD Global in the top ten yet. Maybe in six months, when they got more models avaible.

But saw some TV Nokia commercial for Vodafone Turkey with Nokia 3, 5 and 6 recently. So it seems that the company going forward and re-building the Nokia brand in phones.

[jumbli]

Xiaomi topples Samsung in the budget segment in India:
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/timeline/Business/9310/52162/xiaomi-topples-samsung-as-smartphone-sales-keep-increasing

Nokia is so late in market it's almost already doomed:
https://www.themobileindian.com/news/is-it-too-late-for-nokia-already-18681

[Abdul Muis]

India market is very value oriented. Apple phone is only good for showing off, not value oriented.

So, I don't think Apple will sell well in India.

[Wayneborean]

Abdul,

Define 'well' from Apple's viewpoint. Since we don't know Apple's economics on an Indian iPhone, we really don't have the information we need to determine that.

[Abdul Muis]

Apple only have a couple of percent in India.

[LongAAP1997]

"India market is very value oriented. Apple phone is only good for showing off, not value oriented.
So, I don't think Apple will sell well in India."

I could bet that, that is exactly the same what you sayd about Apple going to China.

[Abdul Muis]

@long

Apple did 5x-8x better/more in china than in india. Apple sell more higher end model in china (bigger screen) compared to USA.

Unfortunately for apple,... Chinese customer were turning away from Apple. The reason is simple, Chinese love to compare specs. This is why samsung have Galaxy S8/S8+ with 6GB RAM in china, but not other market.

[Abdul Muis]

@JimGlu

Apple were lucky balmer did a costly mistake. With android it seems that android already surpassed apple, and apple will have a hard time going forward.

Perhaps... Going forward... Apple could still in 10%, but i doubt it will take the most premium market.

[Abdul Muis]

"The jury is out whether the Chinese "turned away" from Apple or are holding onto their phones longer. That's what we are about to find out with the new iPhones. We don't have evidence that people who have iphones are switching to Android."

Well, perhaps you need to explain your theory. Because when I see apple sales number going south in China, while android sales number going up, thats the only logical explanation to me.

"Doubting Apple will take the premium market? Apple already has the premium market."

No, Im saying apple user were changing. In the past enthusias who want the best device buy iphone. Now, grandma/grandpa who think apple easy buy the cheapest iphone.

And i was also talking about india, where's iphone sold there were mostly not the top of line.

"Just think, the iPhone 6 is now a 4 year old phone and is still a terrific phone."

If you not power user, its terrifix for you. For me, using iphone 6 in 2017 is considered shitty phone.

[Abdul Muis]

@long

If you constantly visit or have business in both china & india, you'll know the different.

China middle class is growing, and they have money to spend, and they want great experience and willing to buy it.

India is different. Their want/willing to spend, but they dont value "bubble" or "gimmick" or "fashion", the way apple promote their segment.

[Abdul Muis]

@long

Ex.
When apple say "retina display"
India mobile phone review magazine will say. It just HD screen (or full hd for bigger size phone). Not as good as samsung/sony/xiaomi/etc

[Abdul Muis]

@Jim Glue

"Where we part ways is in ascribing all of the iPhone's success to fashion or prestige. People have been trying to predict the fall of the iPhone forever based on the fickleness of fashion."

From your response, I believe you never been to china, or have relation with China in any way. When Apple enter China through carrier, people were curious, they want to know why the Western say Apple is the best. They want to also have the Apple experience promise --- "it just works". But after trying iPhone for a while, they decide, that it's only fashion, bubble. Apple era in China is already over. You might not believe it, because you see that in USA, Apple still rule. But not in China.

Furthermore..... The WeeChat incident...
WeChat have a "tipping" system. So, if you read some article on the net, and you want to tip the author or commenter because you think they good, you can tip them from 10 (US) cents. The problem is, Apple want 30% cut if those WeChat user use Apple. This is really hurting Apple image in news. And those 1 million+ people that make article, keep making a negative article about Apple. This is huge. You could only understand if you have China relation.

Well, it's only a couple more months, before your word can be weight against my words on Apple in China. But, I don't think Apple could sell as much as it used to be. The sale of the iPhone X will be more than previous model, but won't beat the Apple Golden era in China. The real question here is, how long can the increase of iPhone X in China will be. Will it be only 1 quarter, or perhaps 2 quarters, or as you wanted (lonnnngggg)..

China is NOT USA
India is NOT China/USA
It's different.....

[Abdul Muis]

@JimGlu

"Apple didn't just put more pixel density in for no reason. "What do we need so that you can't see the dots". Thus the "retina" display is "enough to not see the dots". Once Apple makes something a marketing difference, the Android horde goes into overdrive to EXCEED whatever Apple says is important. Look at us. We got us MORE pixels per inch. 'Cause more is better, dontcha know."

Do you really believe this hogwash??? Do you really want me to believe this hogwash? Apple just happened to be loosing the edge, and they were making up an excuse...

I really hate 720p screen, even on 4.7" phone. FullHD on 4.7"-5.2", and more than FHD on 5.5" phone. Or perhaps I have a better eyes than most iPhone user did. Because I can see the dot on retina display.

About battery life vs. screen resolution...
Perhaps Apple should switch to AMOLED, because AMOLED screen use less electricity, and pay Qualcomm the $5.90 patent for making the phone use less electricity before blaming the screen resolution eat battery.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-end-qualcomm-row-with-8-billion-payment-1502119206
Apple Could End Qualcomm Row With $8 Billion Payment
Apple could digest a payment, and an ongoing rate of $5.90 per phone as could be acceptable to both parties.