My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« We Can Now Estimate Global Android Forked Installed Base ie AOSP Devices vs 'full Google' Android | Main | Next Stage for Mobile and Identity? Yes UAE just deployed passport onto smartphones, first in use Dubai Terminal 3 and Emirates airline »

May 25, 2017

Comments

Abdul Muis


T-mo announce DIGITS....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaoS3TFqDnI

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne: The moving average? Yes, the market share stated is the moving average over the last 4 quarters. Quarter over quarter it fluctuates wildly, as we both are already aware.

I'll submit the new report once Tomi announces the Q2 numbers, since the model is built for the short term. And yes, it's calendar quarters as always. :)

@Bree:

I'm not convinced most people are interested in a larger than 5.5" phone. At that point we get Phablets, which have had lackluster sales historicly.

Only way I see iPhone growth is if they have a smash hit success in India - but given most people in India can't afford an iPhone, not even the 5S, well... I doubt they can get over 10% market share in India the coming five years, all the while Android will be running circles around them.

LearnAndRead

"It was only completed when Nokias then CEO eFlop announced that something is burning and some company with a bad history will fix it."

Yeah, right. Android outgrew Symbian a quarter before Elop did his idiotic moves so that really supports your theory.
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011013.html

Bree Van De Kamp

@Per "wertigon" Ekström

What is you prediclion number?

I think 5.7" for the big size is good for China/India. In India and China big phone = premium. Small phone = poor people. That's why samsung sell 6" Galaxy A9 Pro & 6" Galaxy C9 Pro in Asia, but not in USA.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Bree:

It says right there, 76.6M for Q4 this year. But yes, you might be right that size still matters in China/India. The model is mostly based on previous performance for that quarter coupled with the performance of the current quarter, and Apple has mostly run out of places to grow to.

In India, paying half as much for an Android phablet will also have a major impact.

Bree Van De Kamp

@Per "wertigon" Ekström

What phone size you think apple must make? Do you think 4.7" is good? Or a little small? I see 5" & 5.2" good size, but 4.7" a little small. Same for 4", little small. A 4.2" or 4.5" is better.

I think apple need to have new phone size to grow. number one reason buying phone is bigger screen, so each should big a bit. 4" grow to 4.2" (or 4.5"), 4.7" grow to 5" (or 5.2"), and 5.5" grow to 5.7" (or 5.9"). The big one is for India & China. They have big pocket & big hands.

Abdul Muis

"Apple needs xxx to grow. There is only one thing Apple would need for explosive growth - cheaper phones. Put iOS in a $250 phone and watch sales explode like a Samsung Note 8."

Really??? Right now in developing country iPhone SE is sold for $220. But it's not a success... because it's too damn small, it's a good phone, a good replacement for featurephone, but it's palled in usability because of small screen. For $220, the Galaxy J7 prime offer beter hardware, better screen (AMOLED + FHD & 5.5"). Or if you don't want big phone, you can get Galaxy A3 2017 with $220.

"Cheaper phones is all that Apple ever needed. But that's not Apple's business model."

The problem is, western like small screen phone. asia love big screen. but apple pricing model is not in favor for asian. Perhaps Apple need to make iPhone 7SE with 'cheaper' price tag and a big screen for asian market.


"Apple could cut its margins to 0 and still be near twice as expensive as the average Android phone."

Apple BoM (Bill of Material) of iPhone is WAY lower than samsung galaxy S series.

Bree Van De Kamp

@Wayne Brady

"Put iOS in a $250 phone and watch sales explode like a Samsung Note 8."

Like abdul say, $250 and big screen for India and China. India & China love big screen. Samsung make Galaxy A9/C9 for China/India.

"Apple could cut its margins to 0 and still be near twice as expensive as the average Android phone."

If case like this, Apple deserve bankrupt.

Bree Van De Kamp

@Abdul

"The problem is, western like small screen phone. asia love big screen. but apple pricing model is not in favor for asian. Perhaps Apple need to make iPhone 7SE with 'cheaper' price tag and a big screen for asian market."

Not love. Big = expensive = success. Using big phone equivalent to better phone. Just like cars, 7 series is bigger than 5 series, 5 series is bigger than 3 series, 3 series is bigger than 1 series.

Apple need to adjust their product to other market. Not market adjust to apple.

Tester

@Wayne Brady:

"Apple could cut its margins to 0 and still be near twice as expensive as the average Android phone."

I beg your pardon?
Last time I checked there's nothing special about Apple's hardware. It's just a run-of-the-mill smartphone that's mostly distinguished by using a different operating system that chooses to be incompatible with the rest of the world.

And let's be clear: The only reason why Apple can still do this business is because for historic reasons Android is saddled with some problems it cannot get rid of anymore, the worst of which is the notorious software update problems.

So what if, as some link in this discussion has shown, Google manages to pull off a miracle and release a truly modern, forward looking smartphone OS that solves these problems AND manages to provide sufficient compatibility with common Android apps?

Say what you want, but we are currently still stuck with 10 year old UI paradigms that were invented when touchscreen controlled mobile phones were new - and that goes for both iOS and Android. There's no doubt that things can be massively improved. In the past it had been Apple spearheading such endeavours, but with the current management it's almost a given that they just try to preserve the Status Quo to keep up the revenue stream. It's really time for some actual market disruption here - and by that I mean bringing some actual improvement, not just adding the next cool feature that'll be old news one year down the line - like almost everything in smartphones.

Gul Dukat

@Wayne Brady

"Apple needs xxx to grow. There is only one thing Apple would need for explosive growth - cheaper phones. Put iOS in a $250 phone and watch sales explode like a Samsung Note 8.

Cheaper phones is all that Apple ever needed. But that's not Apple's business model.

Apple could cut its margins to 0 and still be near twice as expensive as the average Android phone."

Baa-ram-ewe. Baa-ram-ewe. To your breed, your fleece, your clan be true. Sheep be true. Baa-ram-ewe.

chithanh

@LearnAndRead
If you really think that the iPhone disrupted Nokia, then you are very uninformed and should read Tomi more. The vast majority of Nokia sales were not even in a price range where iPhone sells.

About Android, a point could be made. But Symbian was growing despite its age and shortcomings, and Nokia was outgrowing Apple and Samsung in unit sales, until Burning Platforms Memo. This is not coincidence.

Also Nokia had a smooth transition plan to take all Symbian developers with them to MeeGo, and there are readers of this blog whose companies worked on MeeGo apps when the announcement came.

@Wayne Brady
> There is no reason for Apple to not make such a phone other than -- they don't want to.

Of course there is. A $200 iPhone would not only take share from Android, but also eat into sales of more expensive iPhones. Apple does not sacrifice profit for marketshare.

This is why Android is relevant to the future of mobile, while Apple is relevant to their shareholders.

E.Casais

"Just that it's as cheap to make an Android phone as a dumb phone anymore."

No. Dumb phones are those extraordinarily cheap ($10-$30) devices that are basically only voice and SMS capable. Android devices cannot be produced profitably that cheaply. Yet.

What Android has replaced are feature phones -- more elaborated devices -- that historically were sold $100-$300. These were no "dumb" devices in any way (look at the Nokia Asha line for a later major example).

coldspring22

Only isheeps fail to realize that Apple is being run by Steve Balmer. Apple has done nothing except to maximize profit in past five years. The two dominant force going forward in the mobile phone usage is longer and longer upgrade cycles - espeically for expensive premium phones (due to lack of exciting new innovations), and also continuing improvements in functionality and usefulness of the cheapest android phones being sold/given away. These days, you can get highly functional Android phones basically for free (from Metropcs, cricketmobile) for just cost of inexpensive $30 monthly plan. Bottom line, dominant trend of maturation in smart phone technology and saturation in userbase mean that there is almost no way for Apple to avoid shedding ever more market share, as Apple will never sacrifice profit margin to remain relavent in smart phone space. Apple fanboys predicted few years back about iphone marketshare hitting 60% and beyond! Talk about pipe dreams! Looking for Apple to hit single digit global market share in next couple of years

Abdul Muis

Talking about innovation...

This Auto Chart by Google is very impressive.
https://blog.google/products/g-suite/visualize-data-instantly-machine-learning-google-sheets/

Pekka

It looks like iphone 8 is gonna be a total monster that will crush all android phones. It will be completely bezel free. Not fat bezels like lg g6 and galaxy s8. It will fingerprint under screen which apperently were to hard for lg and samsung to implement and top of it it has a 3d screen which was just to complicated for lg and samsung to do.

Add it Cpu will probably make snapdragon 835 look like a total embarrassment. Expect upwards 90-100 millions iphone sold q4 2017.

Tester

"Tim Cook and Steve Ballmer HAS NOTHING in common."

They have one thing in common, and that is crucial: They are incapable of bringing business forward. Both have amply proven that they are good at making money from an existing product portfolio, they are also ok at maintaining an existing product and see that it can be modernized.

But both have so far utterly failed at doing anything groundbreaking. Both Microsoft under Ballmer and Apple under Cook have merely made money from the preexisting strength of their market position.
Whether that will last forever or not is a completely different matter.

Abdul Muis

@ReadAndLearn

"Tim Cook has been running daily things at Apple since he was hired by Steve Jobs."

Yes, daily rutin, daily chores on manufacturing, but NOT on decision making on higher level. So far, he only show his talent for reducing BOM. such as using a CHEAPER modem (switch from qualcomm to intel), switch to a cheaper gyroscope, keep using IPS panel instead of moving forward to amoled.

See this as an example:

Jobs think that the high price of apple campus would be justified
https://www.theverge.com/2013/4/4/4182174/apple-campus-2-spaceship-overbudget-rumor
"Even at $3 billion the budget for what is essentially an office complex was high, but Jobs believed the cost was justified as it could become "the best office building in the world." Speaking to the Cupertino City Council, Jobs said that "there isn’t a straight piece of glass on the whole building... and as you know if you build things, this isn’t the cheapest way to build them."

Tim Cook try to cut $1 of the cost
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/04/business/la-fi-tn-new-apple-campus-2-billion-over-budget-report-says-20130404
"Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook had previously said the completion of the campus had been delayed from 2015 to 2016. The Bloomberg report, citing unnamed sources, said part of the reason for the delay was that Apple was working with its architect, Foster + Partners, to cut $1 billion off the cost."

Tester

The Apple Watch wasn't groundbreaking. It wasn't even the first smartwatch. It only was the first smartwatch with a built in customer base that couldn't say 'no' to the latest fashion gadget.

Make no mistake here: A large portion of Apple customers is only buying Apple due to peer pressure and other social demands. The mere fact that all other smartwatches combined didn't even register as a hiccup clearly tells us that there's no actual need for the product itself, only for its 'value' as a status symbol in certain circles.

Ultimately it's just another good example of a CEO going for the low hanging fruit without much effort.

Winter

@Wayne Brady
"Name something groundbreaking Google has done after search?"

AI: Winning with Go.
Google Translate now makes really worthwhile translations.

Both accomplishments are watersheds.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati