iPhone Q1 Results: Second Year in Row that January Quarter Sales are Down in Absolute Units vs same Quarter the Year Before

So we're into the quarterly sales data in the smartphone wars. Apple reported 50.8 million units of iPhones in calendar quarter 1 ie January-March quarter. That is down 1% vs same quarter a year ago. More relevantly, this is now the second consecutive year that the first quarter of the year starts with unit sales actually down vs the same period the year before. Apple's best-ever Q1 was in 2015, when they sold 61.1 million iPhones. That came down to 51.2 million in Q1 of 2016 and now down further to 50.8 million for Q1 of 2017. Apple's peak year in total annual iPhone unit sales was of course also 2015 with 231.4 million unit sales. That came down to 215.4 million last year and now this weak start to 2017 suggests Apple heading to perhaps flat, perhaps even slightly more down sales this year. The market share picture looks worse, Q1 of last year Apple held 15.3% and now has 14.6% a decline of three quarters of one point of market share.

In terms of annual market share, Apple picked a good year to have declining sales last year, as the industry growth overall stumbled and was essentially flat. So Apple's market share did not suffer much. They dropped from 16.1% in 2015 to 14.6% in 2016. But the industry has returned to growth. The industry is now again growing at 4% per year and now if Apple sales are flat vs 2016, their market share will fall to about 14%. And until the next models arrive, there is nothing to rescue the rest of the year from the regular annual 'down-cycle' that Apple now is in. This before we consider the rumors that the new iPhone 8 may be delayed in its launch. 

If Apple ends at 14% it is nothing to sneeze at, Apple is safely the second-largest smartphone maker still this year, but Huawei might break into double-digits and if this year ends with a race say of Apple around 14% and Huawei around 12%, then NEXT year we could have a real race... Also please remember, Apple is the most profitable company in human economic history and sits on a gargantual pile of cash. They are more rich than god. So don't cry for Apple, they're definitely the biggest winner in smartphones, in handsets, in mobile, in tech and in corporate industry the planet has ever seen. But just don't think the iOS ecosystem is a 'mass market'. It is a niche market for rich people - albeit a very large niche market.  

Comments

[SuperCycle]

On the other news Apple Q1 2017 was excellent even that it was one week shorter than last years quarter. (Under 1% minus in sales corrected would be the same compared to the last year). It was excellent even that it suffered from strong dollar. Apple managed again raise the ASP of the iPhone and Mac. Something that NOBODY else has managed to do. iPad was again squeezed between larger iPhone and MBP. iPad is still the market leader with 81% marketshare (tablets over 300$). Excellent results and services are doing fantastically AppStore being twice as bis as Google Play store. Also Apple Watch is going strong with headphones. AAPL is all time high.

Apple is redying for the Super Cycle. This year India is the next China for Apple while Chinese market grows nicely.

[SuperCycle]

"They are more rich than god."

How true that is. "God" is always running out of money and asking you to lent him more.

[E.Casais]

@SuperCycle

"iPad was again squeezed between larger iPhone and MBP."

This is a very limited view of the situation assuming that only Apple products impact each other, ignoring the overall market context.

Phablets have been existing longer than large-display iPhones, many manufacturers have been competing with Apple in the segment of ultralight notebooks, and they introduced new form factors (hybrids like the Surface series) before Apple came up with equivalent offerings. The impact of those products has been felt for quite some time.

The whole tablet market has therefore been in intrinsic decline for years -- and the iPad is simply going down with it.

[SuperCycle]

"The whole tablet market has therefore been in intrinsic decline for years -- and the iPad is simply going down with it."

Actually use of iPads is up yoy because they have longer work life than expected. Larger iPhones do eat iPads share. Now when the big companies like IBM (400000 workers) and Volkswagen (625000 workers) are seeing the light the future is very bright for the Apple. Apple is gaining monumentally in the enteprise sector.

[Olivier Barthelemy]

@supercycle: are you sure the quarter was a week shorter ? I know Q4 was a week longer (and that more than explains all of their feeble growth then), but Q1 is normal-sized, thus no excuse ?

[Olivier Barthelemy]

@supercycle re: iPads: Apple has historically been unable to handle the corporate market. y guess is that Google will release ChromeOS tablets, and MS's devices might get legs, and both will put a damper on entreprise iPads. Like they did in .edu

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Supercycle

Otherwise ok comments but the market share of iPad is nothing like four out of five. You mentioned that this share only applies in premium-price tablets. So in real market share - all tablets - iPad is long past its peak and in perennial decline.

...just keeping the score straight :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Olivier Barthelemy]

@Wayne Brady: I think the main issue with tablets is that there's no reason to upgrade whatsoever. Whether iPads or Androids, 5yo machines still work fine. My brother-in-law is on a Cyanogenmodded HP Touchpad, and doesn't *want* an upgrade, I've sent out feelers at each bday/xmas. And I'm trying to find a reason to junk my own 2011 Galaxy Note 10.1... it doesnt do h.265 which is starting to hurt, but it does all the rest just fine. I can't even find a reason to cyanogenmod it to 6.0 or 7.0, it's on 4.1.
And those tablets aren't being disused like so many fitness trackers are. They're doing their job, and there's no need for them to do more/upgrade.

That's a concern for phones. Phones do benefit from a stronger fashion/social effect, but OEMs are struggling to maintain the pace of innovation required to justify 2- even 3- yearly upgrades. TouchID through the screen will be nice, but not enough to upgrade from a phone with broadly similar performance, picture, battery, screen... Samsung and Apple are playing the looks card, that's all that's left, and not worth much to many.

[Huber]

@Olivier/Wayne: Completely Most people I know use their tablets for a long time (like me, still typing this on my 2014 Sony Z2 tablet). Others skipped using tablets as a whole, though.

So I'd also assume that the shrinking tablet market is caused by a mixture of long upgrade cycles and tablets being a niche.

Regarding business, in my experience the hype of 2010/2011 is over - you see some iPads here and there (but almost no Android tablets), but there is not much talk about it and no bigger IT projects. Of course it can be different in other companies, but I see mostly small notebooks instead nowadays (not that I like those personally either).

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Ah yes, here we are again. :)

My linear toy model based on earlier performance predicted 51.7M, with a 14.9% quarterly market share and 14.4% moving average share.

I get 50.76M. The rest will have to wait a while, but in units I was 2% off. Interesting.

Apple profits are in no immediate danger, but they have started the slow decline glide. I predict the iPhone has a good 15 years left of this long glide unless Apple makes a really stupid mistake. At that point, their unit shares will look something like 30M-40M average sales each quarter (peaking at 55 and low peak 20).

And yes, it is the return of the see-saw pattern. So Tomi, looks like they are still sticking to their "One phone a year" strategy...

[Tester]

@PWE:

"I predict the iPhone has a good 15 years left"

... provided that there isn't another disruption coming. The developments in computing have been so fast that I wouldn't take long term viability of any product category for granted - even smartphones.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Tester:

A new disruption, right now, would be Apples worst nightmare (unless, of course, Apple creates it). I think the company will be late to such a disruption, but they could have an IE moment (remember Microsoft going all "Nah internet isn't important" and then Netscape eating their lunch, only for MS to do a 180 and dominate the browser field?) - if they push the exact right buttons at the exact correct moment.

With 600M-700M iPhone users, that is a huuuuuge customer base to kick-start any other business...

[Tester]

@Wayne Brady:

" So how could Apple sell 15M fewer this quarter and still grow the install base by at least 10%?"

I think you will find similar numbers on Android as well. It's simply what has been predicted for quite some time: The replacement cycle extends - and even 4 year old phones are still usable so they can be sold to price conscious customers.

[Tester]

@Wayne Brady:

"so then, would you say you support Cook's concept of an "iPhone pause"? Meaning that the lower sales aren't the result of defection of users from the platform, but users who are GOING to still buy their iPhone, but are simply waiting."

I think by now most people have made up their mind which platform to use. So logically those who use an iPhone but feel the new model is too expensive for justifying an upgrade will try to keep their existing device as long as possible.

I do see some danger, though, that long term some of these users may defect if Apple does not adjust their prices and the second hand market cannot serve them anymore.

The biggest risk in this business is entirely elsewhere, though: Apple's entire business model can basically be summed up as "Buy our device, make all future business with us". Say what you want but many people consider this anti-competetive so it's only a matter of time if some countries enact laws to stop it. What then? What if some country forces Apple to open up to third-party app stores, for example? Will they quit that market or risk losing control over the software that gets onto the phones?

[ch]

The fact that they have so many partners with which they have a contract in fact indicates their anti-competitive behavior.

Apple is also not good for those that really value security as you can lock down Android much better. IOS is better than average Android but doesn't come near the the best secured Andriods

[paul]

Apple is going down and down!
The fact that Apple is sitting on a enormous pile of cash actually is a big disadvantage for them because it will make Apple lazy and obese and loose the strong will to innovate. It will be so easy from now for Apple to buy and innovation than to innovate themselves. This will play against them on a long term because if one does not innovante by themself it will loose that muscle.

[Gul Dukat]

Apple only sell good looking.
Good looking = premium... apple say
No good looking = no premium

Apple dead sure, iPhone design not changing 9 year.
Reason no iPhone 8, but 7s this year cause by samsung
Samsung S8/S8+ too pretty, if iphone 8 (10th birthday) sell, it will fail, and shame
Apple know they lost, Apple wait iPhone 8 next year.
Apple era gone already, apple is dead zombie.

Apple no prety now, no secure most now. Apple is just faksion.

[paul]

Chipmaker Qualcomm is planning to ask a U.S. agency to ban the import of iPhones to the U.S. This is said to be in retaliation for Apple's recent decision in late April to stop licensing payments to Qualcomm.

http://www.komando.com/happening-now/399807/u-s-iphone-ban-apple-products-could-be-in-trouble

[ch]

Qualcomm will ask for it but wont get it

[Gul Dukat]

@ch

Apple = No God
Apple = Bad Man
If United State = Good, Qualcom = Win, iPhone = block to US

iPhone = big bezel
big bezel = not premium
Apple 8 = bad look = not premium now