Return of the Jedi: This HMD Will Bring Nokia Brand Back into the Top 10 in Less than 2 Years. Total Bullseye with the 4 new phones in Barcelona today

That is perfection. A standing ovation for you HMD. Your four phones shown in Barcelona today, they are a bullseye. They are as perfect as any 'comeback' attempt could ever be, at any industry, in any time. You have a set of hit phones on your hands. The people responsible for these 4 phones all are worth their weight in gold, do not let them leave, and do let them design more phones for you. Their judgment is immaculate. My greatest admiration for whoever is behind the retro 3310. That is the cherry on the top. So lets do the official CDB blog review of the Comeback Quartet from Nokia via the HMD company. What does 'the most accurate forecaster in mobile' say about Nokia brands's chances with these four? The sweet short simple answer is: They are back. The Jedi has Returned.

ADDENDUM on 27 Feb, 2017. I have been reading mostly silly reporting from Western tech media (some of it is actually very good) and some very interesting - almost universally positive reporting in Emerging Market media (those that publish in English, obviously). So let me make this addendum to the top, for any readers visiting this article.

The Nokia smartphones on Android, Nokia 6, 5 and 3; as well as the Nokia 3310 are NOT designed to help Nokia 'win against Apple'. That is utterly silly. They are NOT designed to win against Samsung's GALAXY class either. That is just lazy reporting. These four phones are NOT designed for Nokia to win over a lot of market share in Oceania (ie Australia) the smallest inhabited continent of rich people where under 30 million people live (NZ and Fiji included). These four phones are NOT designed for Nokia brand to make a miraculous comeback in the US market (North America is the second smallest inhabited continent by population). They are NOT designed to win in Western Europe either - which may sound odd as Finland is a Western European nation. These phones are NOT designed to win in China - that seems like a ridiculous statement to make knowing that Nokia 6 was already LAUNCHED in China (the only market that sells the phone currently).

Understand this point. These four phones are not made for small markets where there is TIGHT COMPETITION and MANY CARRIERS messing up the market. These four phones are designed to win in TEN countries. Ten countries that all are in the EMERGING WORLD (and are not China). Ten countries where there often is no local handset maker rival or the local rivals are weak (vs say China or USA where local rivals are strong). And these ten countries together account for one THIRD of the total planet's phone sales.

These ten countries are the core of Nokia best customer loyalty and satisfaction where they LOVE the Nokia brand and where both its smartphone and dumbphone brands have ruled forever. Countries like Nigeria, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Brazil. In THOSE countries, these phones will be this year's hit phones and they will crush their competition. Do not read Western journalists pine about some fancy flagship phone and complain that these phones sit in a crowded mid-field. Don't read Western journalists write bemused articles about the 3310 when their OWN NETWORKS will not support this phone. These four phones were NOT INTENDED to win in those markets - while in some Western markets the mid-range Android Nokias will actually sell quite well (especially Europe).

Understand that these four phones were DESIGNED to WIN where it matters! Those 'low-hanging fruit' countries where more phones are sold than in the USA, more phones sold than in Australia, more phones sold than in Europe, more phones sold than in China. And these 10 countries are where Nokia brand is seen as golden (in many of these 10 countries, the Nokia brand is more valued than Apple !!!)  and in these 10 countries, there is a huge loyal customer base eagerly awaiting these phones. Understand that distinction. These phones were not designed to take on Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy. These phones were designed to take on a market AS BIG AS TOTAL SAMSUNG and TOTAL iPHONE, combined !!!! And within THEIR intended market, these 4 phones will rule. Read this blog and understand. I am the most accurate forecaster in mobile and I made EVERY CORRECT call about Nokia in its recent past (also about Apple's iPhone and Samsung's Galaxy and Xiaomi and Huawei etc). Read this blog to understand. These phones are brilliant but not for what you and I wanted. They are briliant to achieve something quite different.

 

So Samsung: Be afraid, be VERY afraid. This company that came up with these 4 phones this fast, this company will breach 1% global market share by the Christmas Quarter of 2017 yes in only 10 months from now. And this company, this HMD, that designed these 4 phones - that HMD will bring the Nokia brand back into the Top 10 largest smartphone makers by Christmas Quarter of next year, 2018. Yes, Nokia via HMD will have 2% market share or better by Christmas of next year (that quarter, not the full year yet). Why? Because these four phones show that this HMD has what Nokia used to have. These four phones are 'aspirational'. Not for you and me, reading this blog. We want our flagship phones (one for each pocket). No, not for us. That time will come, mark my words; but these 4 phones are the ASPIRATIONAL phones for THEIR PRICE POINTS. That is what Nokia was best at. Apple knows only its niche market segment - and is the best at serving it. Nokia was the best at serving ALL OTHER consumers - Nokia dominated ALL OTHER PRICE POINTS except the one where Apple resided, and many years until idiot-Elop showed up - many of those years Nokia OUTSOLD Apple even at the top price range. The people who were having a heart-attack today - they were the management in Gangam, the people of Samsung HQ who have seen their eternal nemesis suddenly reborn. Nasty as ever. It will take many years for Nokia to return to near the top, but this team that came up with these 4 phones, at this time - this is where the comeback truly starts. In two years Nokia will be in every phone store and in all markets (except maybe not USA) and will be a formidable mid-tier player with always a viable desirable phone for every major price point and every major consumer segment. That is what these 4 phones reveal today.

NO FLAGSHIP (YET)

So first off, there was some gossip of a flagship class phone. None seen today. The Nokia 6, the most expensive smartphone will only cost 299 dollars (unsubsidised price) so its half-way to a proper flagship. Its specs are all consistent with a mid-tier premium phone, just slightly above a mid-price smartphone. The average price of smartphones sold last year was.. 254 dollars (as we know from the fresh TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016 that just was released two months ago). That is why the Nokia 5 costs 249 dollars and the Nokia 3 costs 199 dollars. They are hitting this sweet spot of smartphone prices from just the right 'striking distance'. How many phones are sold annually at this price band? The PhoneBook 2016 tells us that too. Mid-price smartphones (costing between 150 and 450 dollars) sold 26% of all phones last year. If we use mathematical average for allowing 25 dollar lee-way ie from 175 dollars to 325 dollars, thats 58% of this segment, so in units of handsets, these 3 phones hit the sweetest of sweet spots where 300 million smartphones are sold per year. That is a Samsung-sized market! And HMD/Nokia aimed at that - with 3 phones that will be DESIRABLE - within that price range.

So what is the Nokia 6? Runs Android, 5.5 inch screen in 1920 high def, has 16 mp main camera with LED flash (no Carl Zeiss branding) and 8mp selfie camera. Includes microSD support, FM radio, a real audio jack for headphones, NFC and fingerprint scanner, is 4G of course, has all other normal tech specs in this price level. The CPU may be a bit slow, the onboard memory is not astronomical but against that, Nokia says it has a good battery life and then comes the Nokia strenghts. As in durability. Gorilla glass and metal body (for Nokia 3 its only a metal frame with plastic body but still, at least a proper metal frame even at that price). There is a dual SIM version for the many countries where this matters and the single SIM version for those where carriers still fight against dual SIMs. Android is Nougat, and is plain-vanilla, no bloatware added. There is great sound via Dolby. So yeah. Its NOT a flagship but its nicely decked out, for a 300 dollar phone. And here is the kicker. It seems DESIGNED. It seems DESIRABLE. Take ANY rival major brand, and look at what they offer you in 299 dollars, and you get plastic and cheap and compromise. But the Nokia - against rivals that don't cost more - and are new phones now - this is a WINNER. This is DESIRABLE. That is what Nokia used to do - at every price point. Their phones were always desirable. They were not usually the cheapest but they were desirable. This Nokia 6, in the 300 dollar price bracket - is just about the most luxurious-seeming phone currently going. When it is shown in the store, for a potential buyer who compares a Samsung and LG and Huawei and ZTE (there is no Xiaomi in most countries yet) - this will seem 'the classiest'. Specs-wise you lose nothing, but this seems just a little bit luxurious. Enough - to sway a LOT of buyers. Yeah, I'll take the Nokia. Do you have it in the color of...

The Nokia 5 and Nokia 3 do the EXACT same thing in slightly lesser price ranges and with slightly less tech specs, but matching quite perfectly what that price point tends to bring in terms of major specs. None of the 3 Android Nokia smartphones make any clear 'omission' or stupid choice. I'd have liked a removable battery yes, but that is not a deal-breaker and neither is not being waterproof. The non-removable battery has now become so normal, that it makes sense (cheaper to manufacture, less chances of pirated batteries spoiling the brand's image etc). And waterproof is not yet expected at this price point but I hope they will do it in the flagship class coming later.

MicrosSD, FM radio, dual SIM - these are all staples of consumer expectation in the markets where this will sell like hotcakes (and not appreciated in the USA where reviewers will not bother singing their praises about these things). What are the low-hanging fruit countries for Nokia? Its not, strange-as-it-may-seem China, even though the Nokia 6 was rush-launched there in January. No, the lowest hanging fruit for Nokia are India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt, Brazil, Russia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa and Vietnam. The Nokia smartphone brand market share (prior to Elop nonsense) was at 70% or better in these 10 countries and the Nokia DUMBPHONE brand was also the brand leader in each of these markets. Their total handset market size is 639 million handsets sold per year !!! (Again, detail we get from the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016 that just came out two months ago, costs only 10 Euros, get your data now, 180 pages, 100 charts and tables, every single data point you ever wanted to know about mobile phones... all current as of December 2016 ie 2 months ago). That is just shy of one THIRD of the total planetary mobile phone market, in just those 10 countries. And those 10 countries will LOVE this set of phones. They will go gaga over them. Watch THEIR press and THEIR reviews. Their mobile operators/carriers and their retailers will be rushing with their orders now. They KNOW their own home markets and they KNOW how their customers will react to this trio of smartphones and they KNOW their COMPETITION will carry all 3 smartphones.

Then there is China. China will be good for HMD/Nokia but in China there is a huge array of entrenched domestic competition with cut-throat pricing. Nokia will not become the market leader in China again (it was before Elop destroyed the brand). But this trio will help Nokia get back into the game also in China. China is obviously the world's largest smartphone market. Then we have Europe. Nokia will do well in Europe with these but it will need a lot of cooperation from the local carriers/operators and handset retailer distribution. That is where the brilliance of the 3310 comes in.

WINS IN STORE

The way the 3 Android phones are designed is pure Nokia insight into how you win INSIDE the store (nearly half of all handset buyers have changed their mind when inside the store, compared to what phone they thought they would be buying). What is it that consumers WANT? The most? Screen size and camera. That is what these 3 Android phones do extremely well. The wide angle 8mp selfie cam will impress in the store. The BRIGHT large screen displays will seem... 'brighter' in the store.. These phones are DESIGNED to win when two or 3 phones are considered side-by-side inside the store, when all phones cost nearly the same. And that is where the impressive 'expensive' looks will help. Immeasurably. If an unknown brand tries to be 'luxurious' you will feel very suspicious. Can this brand I never heard of, be that good? Is this some kind of trick? But when a known premium brand like Nokia - does a metal 'premium' body - especially after the plasticky-Lumia experiences (and Asha) - this will SEEM like really impressive phones - at THIS PRICE POINT. These consumers CANNOT AFFORD an iPhone or top-end Galaxy. They will be comparing these Nokia Android phones to other smartphones that will only cost 250 dollars plus/minus a few dozen dollars either way. Go and see what is available at 299 US dollars and then see the specs, and see the finish. And compare to the Nokia 6. Or do the same for Nokia 5 or 3 These three Android phones were designed to WIN INSIDE THE STORE. They will be EASY for the sales rep to showcase and highlight 'why' that Nokia smartphone is a great value and why its is 'better' than whatever alternative the customer was just considering from Huawei or ZTE or Samsung or some local brand. That is where this set is brilliantly designed. In the store it is difficult to 'experience' the faster CPU speed haha. But a camera and large screen - they are obvious advantages, as is microSD support and the headphone jack and the other goodies Nokia is tossing into these packages. If HMD can get the carriers to just stock a few of these phones per store - they will SELL LIKE HOTCAKES (in the 10 countries I mentioned, and at these price brackets)

3310 IS THE JEDI MOVE

Whoever came up with the idea to do a 'retro 3310' among HMD - that person deserves double his or her max bonus. That is not just a stroke of genius, it is truly a Jedi move. It is so much marketing perfection, future marketing books will include this as must-read case studies of MBA classes. It is the ultimate marketing move. And it will be viciously profitable for the HMD-Foxconn partnership too.

What is the 3310? The original 3310 was the phone that introduced many of the world to Nokia's popular Snake game (thanks to reader MIke for correction on this). It was a near-indestructible phone (a dog ate one, it rang inside the dog's stomach. Then later the dog pooped the phone out - it still worked. That is the legendary 3310). It was not a smartphone. The retro 3310 is also not a smartphone. So this is a dumbphone. To call it a 'featurephone' is somewhat a slight to more advanced featurephones but yes, it has a camera and color screen. This retro 3310 is technically a featurephone. Featurephone, you say potato, I say tomato! Its a dumbphone. So its not even 3G (neither was the original iPhone). It has a 2mp camera (BTW so did the original iPhone). The original 3310 did not have a color screen. This one has a 2.5 inch color screen - which is NOT a touch-screen! It is operated by T9 yes, you have to press 3 times to get an alphabet letter - you remember those old style phones? That is how this phone is operated. It is not a smartphone, it is not one with a touch screen. But you know what? Actually 47% of ALL PHONES IN USE TODAY still operate on the basic keypad. Yes, only 53% of all phones in use are touch-screen phones, 47% are operated by keyboard. You know your crazy uncle. You bought him a smartphone for Christmas and he hated it, he took it back to the store and exchanged it for a dumbphone instead. Yes, there are millions of such customers. Many who have dumbphones - ASPIRE to have a smartphone yes. But also - an INCREASING proportion of those who still use a dumbphone - hate or fear or don't know how to use a touch-screen - and will LOVE the 3310.

So what is the retro 3310. It is as similar to the original 3310 as the New Beetle from Volkswagen is to the original VW Beetle. It has the apperance but is different, you see the family resemblance definitely yes. That to you and me, today is a disaster. For those customers who STILL USE THEIR OLD 3310 - or another old T9 based Nokia - it is a God-send! It is what they have hoped and dreamed of. It is EXACTLY what they wanted from 'their Nokia'. It doesn't do the fancy internet and touch-screen and those frightening apps and all the nonsense. It is a basic phone, doesn't even do 3G. It does voice and text. That's it. It has an FM radio (hey that's a great addition - in our family there is only the one FM radio that came on dad's new phone!). Does it have battery life? Gosh yes, 22 hours talk time, one MONTH of standby time. And the battery is removable (so you can carry a spare to double your battery life). Wow, this is THE phone for the Emerging World where reliable daily electricity is not guaranteed! That is all you need - if you are for example illiterate - 800 million adults in the world are illiterate - but most of them do now use a mobile phone. They have no use for Facebook or Twitter. But they will love this phone from Nokia.

Some consumers fear smartphones. This is a dumphone. Some consumers hate touch screens. This is T9. Some consumers don't want to pay any extra for anything they don't use. This is nearly as basic as it gets. Some consumers hate phones that are too small for their hands. This is not the tiniest phone made. Some consumers demand long long LOOONGGGG battery life. This is the king of that. Some consumers break their phones all the time and want a durable phone, so durable you can hit a nail like it was a hammer. This is a Nokia. Duh. Some consumers NEED voice and SMS but on MULTIPLE devices. They don't NEED the internet or apps on more than one device. Think of a taxi driver who has GPS and big screen phablet as his GPS device - as the primary phone. But that connects to one network. What if customers want to call him from other networks (to use their bundled minutes or lower tariffs). That is why almost all taxi drivers have phones on all networks. And except for the primary phone - the others need nothing but voice & text. Thats it. And incredibly long battery life. And SINGLE-HANDED operation!!! (you're driving a car). This retro 3310 is PERFECT as the SECOND phone for taxi drivers for example. What if you're a parent, afraid to give your child the first phone (dropped in the toilet forgot it at Macdonalds, ran up a 500 dollar phone bill on the mobile internet and apps, etc). This is the perfect FIRST phone - ultra-durable, cannot go to the internet to get too much mental pollution and its cheap (Update - I am seeing some reports that the 3310 will come standard with Opera Mini browser but the official HMD/Nokia website does not mention this in their specs. It MAY have a basic browser for slow speed 2.5G network use and modest internet browsing but that would just about be enough to do Facebook...). But its a Nokia. And it has the camera...

A 2 mp camera. And 2.5 inch color screen. Who does THIS type of specs on this type of phone? Nobody else does. Sony, Motorola, they've already exited the dumphone space. Lenovo, HTC, Apple haha never even were there. Samsung, Huawei, ZTE are giving lip-service to the dumbphone segment. Suddenly Nokia does a DESIRABLE dumbphone. Which at a 49 dollar price point gives a ton of the most valuable things a consumer in THOSE 10 MARKETS appreciates. Like dual SIM, like FM radio, like microSD support. But lets talk about that camera. Many who still use an ancient Nokia dumbphone (yes there are still some original 3310 phones still in use in most networks) will not particularly 'like' that fancy camera they are getting. Many will say its way too much - but will end up buying this phone anyway. Its not 'too much' but it is 'borderline' for many. They will say - I have no need for this camera on my phone. I would have preferred it not be included and the device be 10 dollars cheaper. But they will buy it anyway. And that is the JEDI MIND TRICK. So first, lets be clear - MOST consumers DO appreciate a free camera and for a consumer who can barely afford to buy a 49 dollar phone every 2 years - they do NOT own a separate digital camera. Their current mobile phone is the most expensive gadget they own and it does not have a camera. For MOST who aspire to this phone - they will love not just that it HAS a camera - but gosh, its a 2mp camera - it TRULY is 'worthy' of that 'expensive' price tag. That is what you expect if you pay a massive 49 dollars for a new phone (without contract) and possibly had to save 6 months of your salary to afford it (plus sell the old phone to make up part of the price).

But MANY people who have never owned a camera, have no idea what it means and how useful it is, and what those MEMORIES will mean, months and years later. They will learn. Some will try that fancy camera right away - since it is on that new Nokia phone, and it costs nothing to try it, the pictures do not cost anything why not? But many will FORGET it exists and not bother to use it or learn it. And their use will be VERY gradual - driven by their younger relatives. If its their own kids, or their grandkids, or even their grand-grandkids they will LEARN because the youth will ASK them to take pictures. And they will learn and they will UTTERLY FALL IN LOVE with this camera on this phone and that 'massively big' screen. That is the Jedi Mind Trick with the design of the Retro 3310. Not to put apps on it. Not to put the internet on it. But to put the CAMERA on it. Because think of your phone today. What if you lost its pictures. Yes, you probably have them stored on a cloud storage somewhere - but imagine if THAT storage is suddenly 'destroyed' by say a global virus attack. Imagine if your own cameraphone pictures were suddenly gone. All you have are those pictures that you happened to save somewhere else or print out or somehow post on Facebook or whatever. Imagine the loss you would feel. Now think of someone who has NEVER had a camera before, and two years from now EVERY PICTURE THEY HAD EVER TAKEN IN THEIR LIFE, is on that Nokia 3310 phone? They will want their NEXT phone to be a Nokia with that camera quality (and a microSD card slot and Bluetooth 3, to move the old pictures to the new Nokia in about 2 years from now).

EVERYBODY WAS KUNG FU FIGHTING

And now think of HMD's challenge. Stephen Elop destroyed Nokia's CARRIER RELATIONS and its RETAIL CHANNEL DOMINANCE. Whatever wonderful phones HMD can design and Foxconn can manufacture, are facing a hopeless task in reaching the SCALE of the retail presense that Nokia had only six years ago. That is where this 3310 is the true marketing masterstroke. Trying to convince skeptical carriers to promote and stock the Nokia 6, Nokia 5 and Nokia 3, after all the long series of broken promises before, with the Lumia launch, the N9 MeeGo un-launch, the Lumia relaunch, the Lumia re-relaunch, the Nokia sale to Microsott and proper Microsoft push of Lumia and the firing of Elop and the non-Elop Microsoft 'lets try this one more time' re-re-re-relaunch of Lumia. The carriers will not love the idea of trying yet another Nokia play - they even once helped market Nokia branded Android smartphones for a brief moment before those popular phones were then taken away (by the Eloppian madness). No matter what HMD and Nokia now say, there is a lot of bitterness, years of wasted effort and a long long long line of broken promises that will take a long time to heal. No matter how 'sexy' the Nokia 6, the Nokia 5 and Nokia 3 may seem - they will not get 'typical' Nokia type of support from the retail channel - thanks to the total poisoning of the well by Elop who openly feuded with his retail channel.

But no handset maker bothers to APPEAL to dumbphone buyers. In those 10 markets that I listed, dumphones accounted last year for 60% of all phone sales! Globally smartphones outsold dumphones by 3 to 1 but in these 10 markets as a whole - dumphones still rule today.  60% of that phone market is a market of 160 million phones. In JUST TEN COUNTRIES. Thats nearly an iPhone-sized market by unit volumes (but obviously nothing like that in revenues haha). The 3310 will be a HIT phone in ITS SEGMENT. It will be DEMANDED by consumers. And nearly every carrier/telco still sells at least some dumbphones (a few have ended dumbphone sales and only sell smartphones). Similarly many countries have ended 2G phone sales (the retro 3310 is not a 3G capable phone, it is yes, and ancient 2G standard phone). But for THIS SEGMENT of 2G phones under 50 dollars and not-touch screen - there is butkus. There is nada. There is nothing from any BRAND that bothers to pursue this segment. Whatever the carriers/telcos and the retail channel may feel about their experience with Nokia recent smartphones - they will LOVE HMD for giving THIS SEGMENT - where 60% of THEIR CUSTOMERS spend their money - a DESIRABLE phone. From a 'major brand'. The 3310 will be HMD's bestselling phone and it will be a profit engine both for HMD and for Foxconn. But most importantly - no retailer in the Emerging World can afford to NOT stock the 3310. And since they are taking the 3310 they might as well take a few of the other 3 Nokia smartphones ALSO....

HMD's biggest challenge was NOT to design a desirable phone - a challenge they ALSO had - and wow have they done that within these price points. HMD's biggest challenge is the retail channel that Elop destroyed. How to rebuild THOSE bridges. They cannot get global scale without retail - just look at Xiaomi. It took Apple brand four years to build a global presense and get most carriers to support their phone. HMD needs the retail comeback. And while the three Android smartphones are priced and designed well enough to sell very well in their price points - that is not enough to overcome the years of bad will generated by Stephen Elop. What WILL soothe those sores, to an incredible degree - is the REACTION the world will have to the 3310 - in those domestic markets in those 10 countries I just mentioned. This retro 3310 is the true masterstroke. It tells me the marketing and design people at HMD are truly ready to go, they are ready to prove to the world that there is one more comeback in store with the Nokia brand - and this team will bring Nokia brand back into the Top 10 in smartphones, in less than 2 years from now.

Bravo HMD. Bravo! We want more! This is as good as you can possibly hope for. Ignore any nay-sayers in the press who wanted a flagship now. Take your time and do the flagship with the same level of extreme meticulous detail as you put into these four phones so far. You will make all us Nokia fans so proud with what you will achieve. Keep your eyes on the desirability aspect - per segment you want - and proceed only when you are totally satisfied that segment will love your phones. You don't need to sell one unit in the USA, if you can capture the low-hanging fruit just waiting to give you their money, in India, in Nigeria, in Brazil, in Indonesia, and the other 6 countries, you are golden. These four phones are perfection in terms of understanding the marketing and design effort needed for the Nokia brand to be able to come back. Now here's to the NEXT phones. An Nokia 8 as your first flagship, a Nokia 2 to pursue the lower end of the Android family and please say yes to those inside you team who are suggesting 'should we try a Retro Communicator'? Yes please do it! And do a Pureview, put something like a 50mp sensor and give us the modern Android variant of the 808 Pureview (but in a sexy black all-metal expensive-seeming camera body of course). PS PS if you haven't finalized 808 Pureview Retro phone yet - pls include the standard tripod mount screw - SELFIE STICKS USE IT. Show the world that you understand their desires even today, in the selfie-stick age.

PS my Almanac was also just released on Friday. Get the 2-for-1 bundle of both the new Almanac and new Phone book, see more here.

Comments

[E.Casais]

The 3310ng specs reveal that HMD considers the basic phone market to be in its irresistible terminal phase: HMD did not even bother to implement 3G on it.

As such, it is a nice marketing move to scrape the very last bits of revenue from that market segment by taking advantage of Nokia brand and styling recognition from yore, but nothing more. A bit like what Nokia did with the Ringo line for NMT networks in the late 1990s.

As for the other models: I said last year they would be me-too products, and just from the specs, they are. Where is the USP? Having a "pure" Android environment falls short.

The lack of removable batteries is also a downer. I contend that a device with a sealed battery has no excuse to exclude waterproofing; conversely, a non-waterproof device has no excuse to exclude a removable battery.

There does not seem to be anything earth-shattering from other manufacturers at MWC'2017 anyway.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi E

Good points and mostly agree. Now put yourself in the shoes of a customer who has a bugdet limit of 300 dollars for the next phone and walks into the store in July. Compares the offerings from Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, LG; plus some local brands, and then the store clerk puts the Nokia 6 into that buyer's hand. It will seem like the sales rep made a MISTAKE. It SEEMS rich and luxurious. And its a 'genuine' Nokia (and this new Nokia runs Android).

It doesn't 'need' ANY 'wow' factor in SPECS - at this price, it is the most desirable phone when you feel it in your hand - simply because none of the rivals bother to make their mid-tier phones 'this good'. They put all their design effort into the flagship.

These 3 phones will be the bestsellers in their price ranges in EVERY market where they are given fair treatment by all retailers (will not be even half of all countries in 2017 but will be many more in 2018). These phones were designed to 'steal customers' INSIDE THE STORE. They give nothing away in specs (no obvious missing tech specs) but they just seem cool and sexy and 'expensive'. Befitting the reputation that Nokia HOLDS IN THIS SEGMENT in 4 of the 6 inhabited continents where most of the planet's population lives.

The nice thing for us geeks is, that the Nokia 6 sets up the HMD team for quite a challenge for their first flagship (I expect Nokia 8 not Nokia 9) at maybe 499 dollar price point. Then we need high-end specs and some real 'wow' factor of something nobody else has, for it to have a realistic chance of say 'smartphone of the year' type of honors that Nokia once used to win all the time. Remember it will then go against the NEXT Galaxy and the NEXT iPhone haha still to come this year. I am very very optimistic after these 4 phones, that HMD will do 'exactly' the type of flagship you and I will also love. A 'typical' Nokia flagship that will instantly be a front-runner for smartphone-of-year honors (and also for cameraphone-of-year honors, with Carl Zeiss optics I am certain).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Aryan]

The 3310 would have been a very good phone in many developed countries as well, if it had 3G.

The 3310 would have been a perfect "backup" phone for a lot of people. I know many in my tech circles wanted to buy one just to have around. It also could have addressed the grandma/grandpa segment of the market (a growing segment in the developed world). Many of them are now using smartphones grudgingly, they only use phone and SMS on the phone, and complain about the smartphone's battery life. The only reason these folks got a smartphone in the first place was because their dumbphone stopped working, they went to the shop, and there were no dumbphones to buy anymore.

But the 3310 missed all of this by not having 3G.

Mind you, I don't think it needs 3G for fast connectivity, but 2G networks are being shutdown in most of the developed world. in Australia, Telstra has already shutdown their 2G network and the other two carriers are also shutting them down this year. In the US the 2G GSM networks are being shutdown this year and into 2018. It will be the same story across many European countries, where carriers are shutting down their 2G networks to use that spectrum for 4G LTE instead.

The 3310 totally missed the mark by not having 3G connectivity, and hence being useless in these countries. I really hope Nokia/HMD quickly releases a 3G version of the phone soon, cause otherwise they have missed a big opportunity.

[Aryan]

Tomi,

As for the looks, and being a lot classier than anything others have to offer at that price, have you seen the new Moto G5 and the G5 Plus? They also target exactly the same price point (starting from €199) and they also have unibody metal builds and everything you think is very desirable here. Oh and the G5 also has removable battery.

The industrial design standard have been lifted, and frankly in 2017, a $250-$300 phone is expected to have a luxurious metal like we used to see in the high-end. The cheap plastic build is now relegated to the sub $150 segment, and it won't last long there either.

SO yes, Nokia has done well here, but nothing exceptional frankly.

The think that makes me value Nokia above the others at this point is their pledge to release Android updates, and especially security updates quickly and promptly. If they stick to that pledge, I will be recommending them to all friends and colleagues.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Aryan

Great point but obviously 3G adds cost. There is plenty of opportunity to use other classic Nokia phone models to do the same for the Industrialized country markets - but that is NOT THE POINT of this phone. This phone is INTENDED for the Emerging World markets where 5 out of 6 humans live. Where Nokia DOMINATES as a brand. Where MOST phones sold are still dumbphones. And there 3G would add unnecessary cost where this phone is literally twice as expensive as the AVERAGE dumbphone. This is a 'very' premium price dumbphone at 49 dollars unsubsidised price. You can get Android plain-vanilla smartphones with touch screens from no-brand local suppliers for 40 dollars.

I get it Aryan that you'd like this phone to serve ANOTHER need. That need ALSO exists - but you probably will agree that the total market of rich country consumers buying a retro T9 based Nokia phone is FAR smaller than the market in Emerging World where 2G dumnphones are still normally sold and dumbphones outsell smartphones. Again, HMD did the WISE choice to NOT serve the needs of customers like you describe - that is not the 'low hanging fruit' which HMD needs to get to first - because they cannot give us a dozen phone models next year unless these first four phones sell REALLY WELL to begin with. And unless they offer a dozen phones, there will not be something similar to this but with 3G haha. This phone HAS to be a hit, for you to possibly get the phone you wanted. It is the profits from THIS phone (3310) that will drive the speed of which HMD can issue new phones. The three Android phones are likely also profitable but by a FAR thinner profit margin than what is on the 3310.

I hear you, yes, this type of phone could ALSO have had 3G and then in that case it would have ALSO been good in many rich countries - but that would have been a bad choice by HMD for this device. Now, a 3G 'sister' for this, perhaps for Christmas - that is a different story. Easy to do then, if they have sales volumes counted in the many millions for just this device....

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Aryan (second posting)

About the Moto G5. First, haha, Moto/Lenovo availability? Nothing like what Motorola once had so its patchy in terms of global reach. But yeah, there ARE other phones also with metal bodies. But the G5 loses pretty much across the board then on specs. It has a smaller screen, it has a lesser resolution main camera, lesser resolution selfie camera...

That is always a series of tradeoffs, but on specs (without having seen or used either device and I am not a phone reviewer haha) I'd say the Nokia 6 will win 'by slim margin' most reviews against the G5. I didn't mean to say its the only metal body phone - just that at this price point, and these specs, the metal body is the differentiator. The Moto G5 is a lesser phone - but in a nice body... it loses already before we put them into the hand for the final choice... (most consumers rating screen size and camera as the number 1 and 2 criteria in selecting a new phone)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grogxd]

The no-3g maybe also serves Nokia as a planned obsolescence feature. If this phone is as durable as an original 3310, then maybe it will work until the shutdown of 2g networks in the third world(5 years from now? 10?). "The damned government and telecoms are killing my beloved neo Nokia 3310, what does Nokia have for me now?"

[kk]

I am ex-Nokia, but have to truthfully say - there is very little chance of Nokia/HMD succeeding. In the war of eco-systems/marketing muscle and brand name - Nokia simply cannot touch Apple, Samsung and some of the Chinese powerhouses. Nostalgia alone will not help Nokia.
If you dis-agree - can you tell me why it would succeed? Does Nokia still have its supply chain, its carrier and retail channels, it channel marketing? All of that is gone. And all the best people have left the company a long time ago.

It is sad - but it is time to move on.

[jj]

And didn't they promise sw updates once a month? That's cool. I will have Nokia 6 definitely plus a new 3310 for nostalgy reasons.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi grogxd, kk, Paul and jj

grogxd - Haha good point except that note, in MANY Emerging World countries 3G networks only now being rolled out. Yes, roll-outs NOW. That means at least 20 more years of 2G network operation and even this retro 3310 will not last 20 years haha...

kk - I hear you. You personally don't like these phones and can't see why they would succeed. So you're the pessimist type. You clearly did not read the blog article carefully, I explained VERY clearly that this quartet of phones was not intended to serve the needs of you and me. These four phones are designed to win the war in 10 countries. The countries of 'low hanging fruit'. They WILL win their market SEGMENT in those ten countries. Most of those countries (but not India, Nigeria, Indonesia) do not have strong local handset brands to put up a serious fight like China and USA have. Those 10 countries all have a STELLAR view of the Nokia brand. In India still three years ago, Nokia was the strongest brand in the COUNTRY. Not strongest TECH brand. Stonger than any other brand in ANY industry like Mercedes in cars, Rolex in watches, Apple in computers. Nokia not only utterly crushes all other PHONE brands in India, it dominates all other brands too. That was when the brand was in the doldrums and after years of brand abuse. Now this legacy can be used to resurrect that brand. Same in markets like Nigeria, Pakistan and Indonesia. Some of the 10 I mentioned are more affluent and closer to the European/US markets like Russia and Brazil, but still even there, Nokia was a huge market leader until quite recently. These phones will easily win in those markets too.

The distribution and sales - you are correct, that those have been decimated and HMD has to now rebuild. This will take time. It will be helped GREATLY by a hit phone - which is what the 3310 is. It doesn't matter that the 3310 is not a smartphone - it will be one of this year's best-selling phones - sold in the SAME stores that all smartphones are sold, by the same retailers - that means, WHEN they order more 3310 models, they will also take some Nokia 6, Nokia 5 and Nokia 3. And while 3310 is winning in the dumbphone sector - when a CONSUMER in a store, compares a contemporary Samsung or LG or Huawei to the Nokia 6, 5 or 3, in those price brackets (175 to 325 dollars) - they will OFTEN go with the Nokia, even if the Nokia was not their original intention. Nearly half of all phone buyers will change their minds INSIDE THE STORE. They will compare, and those 3 smartphones were designed to WIN inside the store, the screens are huge and BRIGHT (for their price range) and the cameras are powerful esp the selfie cam (for their price range) and then the metal finish and Nokia brand - all come together. This helps create a 'Motorola Razr' moment for Nokia where these phones far exceed their initial market expectation (in these 10 countries) and THERE those phones will really jump off the shelves. kk, you need to go visit a phone store in Indonesia or Nigeria or Brazil to understand. These phones were not designed to appeal to you and me. They were designed to win INSIDE THE STORE, in those 10 countries. Where they will run away with the market share within those price brackets.

Paul - To quote John Maynard Keynes, "When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir". I told you CLEARLY in my original blog what I expected would happen by now - that DIDN'T happen. So the forecast was made on those assumptions. I told you what my assumptions were and what would result. Now we see the reality, and it did not square with my assumptions. Would I not seem like a lunatic to you, if now under radically changed conditions, I still said 3%? Paul? Are you serious?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Pekka]

The most important thing about these Nokia phones is that they resolve as good as it possible to solve the android update problem. The update problem is the biggest problem about Android. Only Google Nexus or Pixel phones are up to date and all others are running old or really old version of the software. Nokia will offer plain android with monthly updates from google. These Nokia phone are not competing against Google's offerings. If I will buy an Android phone it will be plain android, because of the update problem of the modified android phones.

[jv]

First, I am buying 2 new 3310's for my parents who are still hanging onto their old 3310's. And they will appreciate the camera, not detest it. Then, I'll get myself a Nokia Android phone - the one I have been waiting for a loooong time. From a point of view of mobile markets, it maybe too little too late from HMD. But from the point of view of this one grumpy customer: "IT'S ABOUT F*CKING TIME!" It seems prepostorous we had to go through all this crap to eventually get to the point where you can buy a Nokia with the specs people want. It's 101 of marketing people, its not that difficult! Sheesh!

[E.Casais]

"the Nokia 6 sets up the HMD team for quite a challenge for their first flagship"

I would say this is only subsidiary to the most important challenge for HMD: what will be the transition phone, between the 3310ng and the 3, that will support the migration of the considerable feature phone and basic phone user community to smartphones?

You rightfully and persistently insisted on this evolution as paramount for the success of "generalist" manufacturers (such as Samsung, old Nokia, LG, etc), showed that Nokia had a long-term strategy to channel that migration towards its products, and how it is essential in a market where the high-end segment (the increasingly boring battleground of Apple vs. Samsung that is always debated) is saturated.

HMD will have to provide something at a price point of about €80-€90 (a Nokia 2? or a Nokia 1?) And that is where a technical difficulty arises. There have been quite a number of sub-€100 Android devices -- but everything I have seen and read consistently shows that they do not work well.

The hardware required to run Android, plus the features expected from a smartphone (e.g. 3G, WLAN), add to the production cost -- but because cost saving occurs in other parts (e.g. very limited RAM, flash memory, slow CPU), overall the features, generally expected to compare favourably to those of a traditional S40 feature phone, exhibit poor usability. The result: the smartphone costs less than €100, yes, but it is not good value for money anyway. If one can only rely consistently on messaging and calls, then a basic phone is half the price...

HMD/Foxconn must provide a genuine Android device at sub-€100 price point whose feature above a 3310ng are effectively usable, i.e. that represents genuine value for that money. It will be tough.

"The no-3g maybe also serves Nokia as a planned obsolescence feature."

I agree, this was also my point. HMD does not believe that 2G will last, or that basic phones will be relevant long enough for 3G -- for which it will try to push the line of "Nokia n" devices.

Thus, the 3310ng is not quite a swan song, since HMD has been producing other 2G basic phones recently and will probably launch a few more -- more like entering the last stage of a fireworks feast.

[paul]

I am already looking forward to getting some Nokia phone in our house!

I guess that Nokia will have no problems whatsoever in getting 4-5% world wide market share. It will be much tougher breaking the 10% market share though!

P.S. I am the real Paul!

[ChrisB]

One aspect not mentioned in the article is that either Foxconn or HMD inherited the dumbphone sales organisation from Microsoft, a unit that was always profitable, even under MS's tutelage. HMD can now use this successful department to channel its smartphones into the (for now) relevant markets.

Personally, I'd like to see a successor to the 515, the perfect hybrid between a smartphone and a featurephone and the ideal second phone with a very long battery life, an indestructable case and the ability to install apps. I'm using the 515 much more than my Samsung Galaxy, because I can listen to music and watch videos for at least a week in addition to using the device as a phone, without having to re-charge it every few hours/days. Plus, the sound quality of phone calls is so much better than on most smartphones.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi jj, Pekka, jv & E

To everybody - I have been reading the world press reviews. Clear divergence of opinion. In almost all Western press, the view is that of mild disappointment, pessimism and feeling that the 3310 is a PR ploy which won't go far. Meanwhile in the press from the Emerging World (obviously I'm only able to read those that write in English haha) - there is CONSIDERABLE excitement but also warning that the local price is not yet known, and the exact timing of availability is their concern. They are READY TO BUY these phones in the Emerging World and only worry - with considerable reason too - that there may be launch delays that Nokia is notorious for. But if these 3 smartphones (and 3310) launch in the 10 countries I said, by June - they will be HIT phones in all 10 of the markets I identified. Go read the press. It is a CLEAR divergence of opinion. Don't read what a British or American tech writer thinks of these phones, they are disappointed (or bemused by the 3310 while pointing out that their own country 2G networks are shortly shutting down haha). These 4 phones were NOT TARGETED at the small markets of Europe and USA. They are targeted for the FAR LARGER phone markets. Those 10 countries that I listed are larger than China! They are larger than Europe! They are larger than the USA. They, those 10 countries by themselves account for 1/3 of all phones sold - and the local press in those countries are loving this launch.

jj - yeah, very good point. It is a significant differentiator. I don't think most consumers will care about is the OS updated and what exact version it is (that is something only us geeks care about) but for SOME who wanted Nokia to do an Android phone for years - this is very good news. It won't 'win the war' for Nokia smartphones but it will help convince some, more geeky but mid-price buyers.

Pekka - same thing as jj. Agree with your views but this is a tiny slice of buyers for whom this would be a concern. Most who end up buying a Nokia 3 have never thought about the OS before, and for many of them, this will be their first-ever smartphone they will buy (very many were Nokia Asha owners by the way, who will now buy these Nokia models).

jv - haha, great comment! I think many of us will be buying 3310s as gifts to the more elderly relatives we have - as long as our national networks still support 2G long enough haha. But also, assuming 3310 turns out to be a good seller - expect HMD to give another old classic Nokia phone the retro treatment to do a 'Western' variant of this strategy, but on a phone that then also has 3G. I'd say pretty safe bet they'll have that phone out well before Christmas for Xmas gift-giving exactly like you said, we want to give this modern Nokia dumbphone to those relatives who simply will not accept any smartphone haha...

E - great great points! Yes, that migration will be very very important. And the 3310 and the Nokia 3 both signal the early intent on how to tackle that issue. There is plenty of 'space' in the naming and pricing scheme for a Nokia 2 and Nokia 1 to go for say $149 price for this Christmas season (Nokia 2) and then $99 for next Spring with Nokia 1. The issue of Android needing CPU and memory capacity is a considerable issue at the bottom end, you are totally right. That will partly be resolved over time due to Moore's Law. So the processor capability will get more powerful over time. And secondly, Nokia was never the phone with the fastest processor. They are traditionally willing to make that compromise, give the consumer more tech features but at a cost of some processing power & speed. For the first-time-user, coming from a dumbphone to their first smartphone - that will not matter one iota. As long as the smartphone reasonably well functions, they won't know what a faster phone even COULD be...

But this will take considerably more design effort and thus, the Nokia 2 & Nokia 1 will come later. When HMD has had more time to refine its exact design specs and the phone technical capability. Note also, that this is in Google's interest - they want Android on every phone, the market is growing at the bottom end - they WILL be trying to make Android more workable on very low-end spec phones. Again, not a perfect solution but this will help from that side.

If someone is capable of designing a sub $100 dollar smartphone that runs on Android and does an adequate job at it - haha, that is most def Nokia. They were ALWAYS doing the low end phones remarkably well.

HMD has the good fortune that the Asha/Lumia and very basic Nokia buyers of the past 2-4 years are now going to come to the stores to see these phones (especially the Androids) and in the store, these phones will easily sway any 'Nokia brand lover' that gosh, compared to the competition at this price, this is the best Android phone... These phones WILL lock most of those return customers to the new HMD-Nokia smartphone series. Obviously us who want the flagships, we will be disappointed but these phones were not intended to fight for that fiercely competitive space...

PS loved the ending, not a swan-song but entering last stage of fireworks feast. Indeed. And I can't wait to see HMD's next unveiling event with 2-3 more phones...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

PS 'Real Paul'

I know you are, don't worry. I was talking to the imposter-Paul

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Mike]

Hey Tomi
I agree with you in all the other things, but come on - 3310 introduced snake ?! Snake was already on first mobile I owned, which was 8110 in 1998, couple of years before 3310 was introduced. And on any next Nokia phone I had.

BTW: I was always under impression that first mass market phone and "enabler" for mass mobile phone utilization was 5110. This was the first phone that just everybody had, not 3210 or 3110. But probably it depends on part of the world we're talking about

Stupid dump journalists keep comparing these phones to flagships and "are dissappointed". Morons.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Mike

Thank you, yeah, my bad. How can we possibly remember all those stupid numbered phones and what did what haha... I corrected the article and thanked you for the correction.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi (Real) Paul & Chris

(hey this blog reaction seems like 'old times' - back whenever I used to write about either Apple or Nokia, the comments section would explode with tons of reactions... I blame.. the 3310!)

Paul - haha you too? Yeah these first phones have done the part of 'true to Nokia identity' very well. A lot of Nokia fans will love these as the first step and for those, for whom these hit their budgets, they will sell. For the rest of us, we hope when HMD does 'our' price bracket, we will be equally happy that Nokia still remembers our needs and why we loved Nokia too...

Chris - great point and I am still curious about the exact nature of the HMD-Foxconn division of labor and Foxconn's actual use of its 'asset' ie the dumbphone business. You'd think the 3310 should have been introduced by Foxconn haha. Or have Foxconn now relegated that part of the partnership to HMD and perhaps also letting HMD manage the sales/distribution etc - where Foxconn just focuses on making phones and doing that profitably at their end? But you're correct that even through most of Elop's fiasco days, the dumbphone side of Nokia's handset business was profitable - and that is the part that Foxconn bought and what this 3310 is (or should be) part of.

Now what can Foxconn do with this asset? You'd think they want to 'Lenovo' the brand. So bring the Foxconn brand alongside the Nokia dumbphone brand like Lenovo did with IBM Thinkpad laptops and eventually they became Lenovo Thinkpads and the IBM name was left out. You'd think that is Foxconn's 'strategy' to capitalize on their asset (or is there some behinds-the-scene deal already done, about handing all of Nokia's dumbphone design & marketing also to HMD and this was maybe a way to get Microsoft to save its face and agree to the deal where MS could not take the humiliation of selling Nokia handsets back to Nokia directly haha).

BTW - the design team and talent who created these 4 phones, they are 'ex Nokia' people. Microsoft and Elop once had these people, or well, lets say Elop once had them and part of them may also have been still at Microsoft. But imagine if this was allowed to be the parallel track for Nokia in 2012 where Nokia tried Windows but ALSO did Android (like Samsung, like HTC, like Sony like Motorola like haha, almost any other sane Windows partner). Nokia could have done the plastic-tacky-colors Lumia on Windows and then these metal-body Androids (on then-2012 specs obviously) and haha, offered those side-by-side to their distribution - gosh Nokia would still be the biggest smartphone maker today...

Tomi Ahonen :-)