My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« iPhone Q4 Numbers? A good quarter in a bad year. Q4 unit sales up 5% but full year 2016 sales down 7% vs 2015 | Main | Celebrating 15 Years of TomiAhonen Consulting with CDB Blog Readers & My Twitter Followers - Giving everybody free version of previous TomiAhonen Almanac 2015, unedited, not copy-protected, full unrestricted pdf file 212 pages & 105 charts & tables »

February 02, 2017

Comments

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Also, arguing the network effects are fake because they haven't happened yet is pretty much as stupid as arguing global warming isn't happening because Florida isn't drowning yet.

It's already happening, but the pace is too slow for you to notice. :)

Abdul Muis

@PWE,

My previous post, I think it's a prove that Android already BEAT iPhone in Gaming revenue.

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2017/02/full-year-2016-smartphone-market-top-10-numbers-and-os-platforms-and-global-installed-base-all-here-.html?cid=6a00e0097e337c883301b7c8d1f92e970b#comment-6a00e0097e337c883301b7c8d1f92e970b

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Abdul:

Yes, great find! :)

John A

Interesting statistics. I wonder what might happend with the brands out of the top then list? Sony, HTC, LG.
Who will survive or who will dissapear?

Abdul Muis

@PWE

What I find even more interesting is if we put income per capita into equation........
.
.
.
.
From: http://images.response.unity3d.com/Web/Unity/%7Bbfd9d8a6-823f-4c7d-a185-b7c01a165041%7D_Unity-2016-Mobile-and-VR-games-year-in-review.pdf ......Pages 7

Japan Smartphone gamer spend US$ 70 average monthly
Korean Smartphone gamer spend US$ 60 average monthly
British .... just over US$ 30 .....
China ..... US$25 .........
USA ..... US$25 .........
.
.
.
and then... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Japan . . . US$ 70 . . . $38.8K
Korea . . . US$ 60 . . . $37.9K
British . . US$ 30 . . . $42.5K
China . . . US$ 25 . . . $15.4K
USA . . . . US$ 25 . . . $57.2K

So, it seems that what iSheep have been promoting that poor user is useless is wrong!!! China with income per capita of $15.4K spend as much as USA with income per capita of $57.2K

Tester

@Wayne:

No, you are wrong here. Apple is not magic, they are subject to all the same market principles as anyone else. The developments here are very slow, the comparison with global warming is surprisingly accurate. These things happen, but you cannot see them from one year to the next, you will have to take longer periods of time. Of course that won't work when a market is still young, and 9 years is close to nothing in this regard because if you want to go back far enough to study these effects you land right in the middle of the strong growth phase which gives no useful data to analyze.

I can tell you a scenario this might go. Absul provided some interesting data that lets us draw some interesting conclusions.

Asia is clearly the market with the strongest growth, it's also the market with the most customers, so it will increasingly become the focus for most players. Games, for example, will no longer primarily focus on US and European releases but far more strongly pushed towards Asia.
And behold, here we already have the first point that will hurt Apple long term: Asia is strongly Android focussed, so in order to serve Asia, the Android version of games will become significantly more important to do first, because although in strong Apple markets like the US, Android users may not be as willing to spend money as Apple users but they are not a no-show. The producer trades a bit of loss in the US against huge wins elsewhere in the world.
And if such a pattern solidifies it will mean that the hardcore gamers may be jumping ship, which will only accelerate the development.
But since this is one of the most heavily spending demographics it will erode the economic viability of the Apple ecosystem - but since it's a slow moving process it will take time to become apparent.
But once this group of customers is gone, the entire system will lose part of its appeal and possibly make the next customer group jump ship, and eventually the entire market will be weakened enough to no longer being viable.

It's precisely how Windows got to the monopoly on the desktop market in the 90's.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Yes, there is *some* overlap currently, *but* consider the following:

If you are correct, and Web Apps will keep playing second candle to Native Apps, then over time Apps will favor Android due to the installed base. It's possible to delay the inevitable, but over time, Android first will be an inescapable fact of the landscape.

Once Android first is the norm, Android will start receiving killer apps not released to the iPhone. Once enough of those are made, iPhone will lose out on customers. This is assuming Apple develops the most perfect end-all be-all phones imaginable, which they most certainly won't. Imagine the next Uber app as Android-only (and by that I mean, app that gets as viral as quickly as Uber). The market will slowly move to Android as well.

If I am correct in my assessments, then Native Apps will eventually be replaced by web apps. In this scenario, there will be no killer apps for either phone, because both phones will have access to both Apps. BUT - Android will be the leader, and iOS will be the follower, always the follower.

In this scenario however, it is plausible that the iPhone could take a leading role by developing safe ways to do webapps, and therefore ensure that iPhones are not pushed out of the game completely. This however would mean undermining the profits of the App store cash cow - so why would Apple do this? The more realistic path is that Apple will not pursue this road until it's apparent the App store is futile, and at this point they may be so far behind the game they cannot catch up any longer. Even if they do catch up, at this point they will be at the whims and mercy of whatever the highly innovative Android companies provides, and Apple will be known as the company lagging the competition since they can only respond with yearly updates.

Android has a product cycle of 3 months. iOS has a product cycle of 18 months. You do the math - and the only way for Apple to reach a similar turnaround rate is by opening up the code. Which again, hurts the profits tremendously, as well as that consumer-grade quality polish we all know and love from Apple.

I simply cannot see a single path that ends with Apple having more than 7% market share by 2030, but that share can be sustainable if the web ecosystem by then is sustainable. If it is Native Apps first however... By then the writing will be on the wall and visible for all to see. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne: Again. It is inevitable that this happens. Tomi says so, and so do I.

Inevitable.

Do you not understand this word?

Inevitable. Look it up.

Now, inevitable does not specify a time frame - only that it will happen. And indeed, is already happening in many, many countries already.

Except for in the U.S.

So yes... It not only will happen - for many regions, it already HAS happened. :)

Abdul Muis

@Tester

"Android users may not be as willing to spend money as Apple users but they are not a no-show. "

This is not true.
As it is said in report that Average Gamer in China spend US$25/month, the same as in USA US$25/month. This is ACTUALLY incredible if you consider that average monthly salary in China is lower!!! According to Wikipedia average salary in China is $15K/year, compared to USA $57K/year!!!! So, Gamer in China willing to spend 1.9% of their salary, compared to USA Gamer that only spend 0.5% of their salary to play game.

In fact, Korea (another asian country who mainly android too) spend 1.9% of their salary to play games. Korean have an average salary higher than China, therefore, Korea Smartphone Gamer spend MORE than china (and USA), which is US$60/month.

Here the complete table

Country . . Average Monthly spend on Game . . Income per year . . % Spend of income for game
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japan . . . . . . . . . US$ 70 . . . . . . . . . $38.8K . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2%
Korea . . . . . . . . . US$ 60 . . . . . . . . . $37.9K . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9%
British . . . . . . . . US$ 30 . . . . . . . . . $42.5K . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8%
China . . . . . . . . . US$ 25 . . . . . . . . . $15.4K . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9%
USA . . . . . . . . . . US$ 25 . . . . . . . . . $57.2K . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5%

Gamer in Asia SPEND 1.9%-2.2% of their salary to play games!!!!

USA & British gamer, who were MOSTLY apple user, ONLY spend less than 1% of their salary to play games.


Please also note, that MOST asian buy their phone FULL PRICE, NOT SUBSIDIZE!!!!!

Abdul Muis

"The remaining 2 billion are even poorer customers."

THIS IS NOT CORRECT!!! The remaining 2 billion is:
* NOT RICH YET, but will be with the help of android, and will be loyal to android
* technological illiterate, don't know how to use smartphone YET, but WILL BE, and will be loyal to android once it got a hang of it
* still NOT old enough to own one

Abdul Muis

Delusional iSheep reporter who drank too much iCola:
http://smartstocknews.com/54867-apple-inc-aapl-is-destroying-samsung-group-slowly-and-gradually/

"It is pretty evident that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is making huge strides in the smartphone industry and the company is posing a serious threat to its main rival, Samsung. The competition in the smartphone industry is increasing at a rapid pace, thanks to the resurgent Samsung Galaxy Note 8 and iPhone 8.

Subsequently, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that Apple is certainly winning the battle, following its latest earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. Many analysts believe that Apple is making all its efforts to retain its position as a market leader in the smartphone industry. Adding to that, as per the data revealed by Counterpoint’s Monthly Market Pulse, the iPhone maker has managed to acquire a competitive edge over Samsung in the high-end smartphone market ever since it rolled out its latest flagship smartphone, iPhone 7.

It is worth mentioning that during the last summer, it was reported that Apple mustered 50% market share in the high-end smartphone market, and Samsung captured 25%. However, by December 2016, the iPhone maker has managed to capture 70% market share, while the South Korean tech giant acquired only 17%. Also, many tech gurus believe that considering the recent moves made by Apple, the company seems pretty serious towards positioning itself as a dominant force in the smartphone industry.

Moreover, it is reported that Apple is planning to celebrate the 10th anniversary of its iPhone this year, and rumors are making rounds in the tech space that the company is planning to change the name of its upcoming smartphone to iPhone X instead of iPhone 8. This indicates that Apple is planning to step up its game to entice more users into buying its smartphones. Many experts believe that the South Korean tech giant should focus on introducing new innovative features to survive in smartphone industry in the future.

It seems that Samsung lost many of its loyal customers after Note 7 fiasco and Apple capitalized on the opportunity by enticing those customers to switch to its platform. In any case, Samsung should consider stepping up its game to challenge Apple again seriously."

This iSheep need to start reading communities dominate blog before making a fool of himself more.


Wayne Borean


Yawn. Same old, same old. Whenever Tomi posts numbers we have a civil war break out here.

Wayne Borean


@Tester,

You are wrong on how Microsoft Windows wiped out all the other operating systems. I've read many of the Microsoft emails about crushing their competition by denying them access to the market. Hell, I have talked to a couple of tech company execs who told me how Microsoft screwed them over when Windows 95 was released.

Windows didn't win because it was better, it won because Microsoft blocked the other OS companies from making sales.

Abdul Muis

Apple selling more Plus models than ever
https://www.dpreview.com/news/7585786342/apple-selling-more-plus-models-than-ever

24 million iPhone 7 Plus unit...... 55% increase....... from 15.5 million iPhone 6s plus...... Q4 2016 vs. Q4 2015.
The 24 million iPhone 7 plus.... is a 40% of all iPhone 7's (iphone 7 + iphone 7s) sales.

in China, in Q4 2016, 52% buy the 5.5" iPhone..... compared to 40% in Q4 2015.

So, the big screen are in. It just iSheep need to take time to understand it.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne: So you refuse to acknowledge the word "inevitable"?

"Windows didn't win because it was better, it won because Microsoft blocked the other OS companies from making sales."

No, that was not it. I am a Linux fanboi, and even I disagree with you on this point.

Windows 95 did play dirty yes, this is true. But, it blocked out other OS:es from the market in pretty much the same way Android did; by sucking up all the oxygen. Their path to victory was merely accelerated by those dirty tricks.

Back in the day, Windows 95 got a leap start because of MS DOS, and that led to them gobbling up large pieces of market share and becoming top dog. On PC, Win95 was hands down the best PC OS for x86 when it came out, and x86 in turn won the race because they were cheap to work with - even if Amiga and Apple were technically superior, x86 was so much easier to find replacement parts and compatible software.

Abdul Muis

@PWE

Back in Win95 era, I use OS/2. OS/2 WARP 4.0!!
It's better than Win95, but the ecosystem...... that's a different story....

So, I agree with Wayne Borean on this one.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Abdul:

OS/2 was the technicly superior operating system, yes, I do not dispute this. Win95 was pretty shite as an OS.

But as you said, the ecosystem was lacking, and platforms are first and foremost their ecosystem. An open ecosystem is better than a closed one, and the Wintel ecosystem was much more open than any other ecosystem at the time. Win95 in and of itself was not the best solution - Win95 on x86 was!

Win95 won the crown by having a great ecosystem, and Android won the crown for the same reason. The iOS ecosystem is already in decline because of it, and soon-ish, unit sales and customers will follow. It's a slow process though.

Winter

@PWE
"Win95 won the crown by having a great ecosystem, and Android won the crown for the same reason. "

In addition, MS were able to pay $1B a year for a decade in fines and setlements for illegal cartel actions to destroy alternatives to their "ecosystem". W95 was a joke as an OS, but by destroying every possible alternative with highly illegal actions, there simply remained no other option.

Here, I do not see any parallels with Android.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Winter:

It was the bundling that gave Windows it's huge market share.

All other OSes were sold separately, while if you bought a PC you either got MS-DOS or Windows 3.1 / Windows 95 on it.

Microsoft's dirty business practices came after Windows 95 was already the dominant OS. And I do not condone those, mind you, and yes I think MS under both Gates and Ballmer were holding the development back decades.

See for instance:

https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Microsoft-Windows-become-worlds-most-popular-Operating-System

Tester

Ultimately Windows 95 became dominant for one simple reason:

It had an excellent upgrade path from its predecessors.
One OS that effortlessly ran all that old DOS software AND all that cool Windows software AND opened up the doors for NT-based 32 bit software.

It was never meant to be the perfect system, but it provided exactly what the market needed: A step into the future while retaining compatibility with existing software, something the more modern Windows NT was unable to do. It was the right product at the right time to turn into a great success.

How could any other system compete against that? That system was basically irresistible for developers and customers alike, the customers could continue to use their existing software until it got a more up to date replacement and developers had a platform that got an immediate large customer base so they focussed development here, where the customers were. That indeed sucked out all the oxygen off the market for the competitors.

It's strange that with Windows Phone 7 they completely forgot how they became the dominant player in the desktop market and did the exact opposite of their biggest success story.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati