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February 02, 2017

Comments

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

Actually @Per using your words/argument that iPhone cornering the premium market. He quote you as how many percent iPhone market was then and now. And using that, he plug in the number apple sold the device, and draw a GREAT conclusion, that the premium market were shrinking.

He might be right, or perhaps wrong.... BUT, if you want to continue using your argument that Apple killing samsung at the high end, then his conclusion is right that's the premium market were shrinking.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Premium share is falling in absolute numbers as well, not only market share.

Just do the quarter-by-quarter analysis of Apple absolute numbers vs Apple share in premium market.

Go on. Post the last two years worth of premium market sales vs Apple share. I'm waiting. :)

Abdul Muis

"What doesn't follow is that "Apple's potential market is falling". It's Android's premium market that is falling. Apple continues to take sales from Android (Tim Cook's "switchers") and midrange Android is taking sales. It's like how both Android and iOS gained share at the same time because there were Windows Mobile/Phone and Blackberry customers to take sales from."

Let just say that you were correct...
With Apple sales number falling in 2016 compared to 2015, that's mean:
1. If the premium market is NOT falling, then, Apple is loosing the race
2. If the premium market is falling, then, @PWE is right.

3. Above statement from Cook's is WRONG!!! If Apple is winning the race (stealing Android user), then, Apple should GROW in 2016, NOT SHRINK.

Abdul Muis

On the Android vs. iOS generate money bla bla bla....

In Snap’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing from last week, it was revealed that Snapchat’s active users weren’t increasing outside of the US, where Android is the more prevalent platform.

The Snapchat Android app itself was partly to blame, suggests The Information, with bugs, crashing and battery issues appearing after the rollout of its Memories update last year.

Since its executives identified the problems, Snap has offered its employees a free Android phone, hired more devs with Android experience, and Created a team in its Seattle office dedicated to the operating system. The company’s CEO Evan Spiegel has even taken to Reddit to interact with Android users first-hand.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000119312517029199/d270216ds1.htm

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

The bubble is bursting.

Apple will find it very hard to grow beyond 250M units, almost impossible to grow beyond 300M units, and the premium race is either shrinking, or they are slowly losing their grip on the premium market.

The numbers do not lie Wayne. Either way is not looking good for Apple, today.

You can either accept it and move on, or stay in your delusional bubble and experience all the shock that comes with you when it finally irrevocably pops. If iPhone 7 grows Apple it will be by very, very little.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Again. That cash generating machine is not going to keep on going even if Apple keeps up with 230M.

You are missing the big picture, which is that the entire deck is stacked against Apple.

Will they disappear tomorrow? Heck no.

But they will sell fewer and fewer phones each year, this is guaranteed due to two things. One is Android network effects.

The second is that these iPhones will be so damned great, they'll last for like five-six years. Meaning the need to replace your phone every third year will be gone... :)

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

230 million iPhone/year is more than enough... it's INCREDIBLE!!!! Problem is not the number, but the perception, expectation, blablabla!!

Right now, a lot of expectation build up on iPhone 8. **IF** iPhone 8 sells WAY bellow iPhone 7 number, it would shatter the imaginary world that Apple create so hard.

Second, as I post above about SnapChat IPO, it happens to all other apps company in USA. One day, they realize they must focus on Android. Put their MAIN effort on android.

Abdul Muis

"You may have not noticed, but I haven't been one to hype the upcoming iPhone. I try my best to ignore the rumor press."

It's not you, I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about the fashion driven user. Or should I say the iSheep. The one that using the phone as a status symbol.

"And frankly, the iPhone 7 outsold the 6 anyway in the big Christmas quarter. But so did the 6s so,we have to wait for the coming quarters to see if the 7 falls as much as the 6s did."

Not really.... So far, the 1st quarter after Apple release a phone is a story about production capacity because demands outstrip suply. ***BUT*** Q4 2016 show that perhaps iPhone already hit a peak. Because Apple add 1 more week to their report earning to make it looks like it sell more than Q4 2015. Perhaps the demand have weaken. Apple certainly hope that Q4 2017 demand is higher than their production capacity, but.... if it's not, Apple might need to add 2 weeks to their quarterly earning report.

About iPhone SE, I believe Tomi wasn't saying SE would be able to get lots of marketshare. Tomi say that it make sense not to leave money on the table. Just make it, even though it adds 5% or 10% it's good for apple.

TomR

The saving point for Apple is that it is much easier to create apps, sites, services for iPhone. The number of hardware/operating system configurations is incomparably smaller. Try to test your product or service on all android phone types... You can't even write user manual properly as many producers use their own GUI addons, so the user interface differs. And many Android phones don't get updates - so the bugs are not patched... How can you even assure your app or service works on a buggy equipment? iPhones in contrast are uniform and get updates. This way Apple can get apps and services, while not being a dominant phone - it is just more helping at creating, testing, maintaining them.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Many (including me) have hoped for info on the forked Android and unregistered Android user count. We have a good indication to roughly estimate that size of the market.

Google has announced it has 2.0B users on Android (includes tablets). This gives us a good comparison point for the unregistered and forked OS Android phone users (ie mostly Chinese brands). As you know, I counted 2.6B Android smartphones in total in use globally at end of the year. Out of Google's 2.0B active Android users we have to eliminate tablet users - say 200M roughly - then it leaves 1.8B as active Android official, registered smartphone users (vs my 2.6B number for apples-to-apples comparison). Thus about 31% of all Android smartphones (800M out of 2.6B) would be the forked. Sounds about right. Very large part of that will be in China.

So for an 'ecosystem' argument point-of-view, out of the nominal installed base of 2.6B Android phones, the real 'reachable' market is only 1.8B Android phones. That compares with the real number I have for iOS iPhone users, at 600M so Android currently for the practical real market is about 3x larger than iPhone smartphone market. Remember that reality for both is however larger, as an ecosystem, when we add tablets etc. Then we get to that roughly 2.0B total Android vs 1.0B total iOS/Apple users ie 2x larger, but most who own either of those alternative devices, will ALSO have that same OS smartphone - so for uniques, the 3x number, 1.8B to 600M is the relevant comparison.

I am sure many of the readers would love these numbers. When I do the Q1 market share numbers (yeah, yeah, I'll get to it soon-ish) I'll also add this insight there.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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