Full Year 2016 Smartphone Market Top 10 Numbers, and OS platforms and Global Installed Base, all here. Oh, and Q4 market data as well

Its time to do the full-year smartphone numbers. I think we have just about all the data that will be made public, as increasingly many of the major players don't release smartphone unit sales numbers, and even the number of major analyst houses who used to provide a lot of data has shrunk to two who reliably do that anymore (IDC and Strategy Analytics). So we will do our best. We do get the total market size simply as the average of the big 2 analyst houses. For Q4 that number is 433.6 Million units. It is a growth of 8% vs the same quarter one year ago. But as our industry experienced its first-ever recession earlier in the past year and for two quarters year-on-year sales actually declined, the total year turned up with only slight growth of 3%. We end the year 2016 with still not quite 1.5B smartphones sold, we reached 1,481 million, ie 1.48 Billion. So lets start with the big tables everybody wants. The Top 10 smartphone brands for year 2016:

2016 FULL YEAR SMARTPHONE SALES STATISTICS

Rank . Brand . . . . 2016 units . . Share . . 2015 units . . Share . . 2014 units . . Share

1 (1)  . Samsung  . . 308.9 M . . . . 20.8% . . 322.0 M . . . 22.4% . . .314.2 M . . . 24.2% 
2 (2)  . Apple  . . . . . 215.4 M . . . . 14.5% . . 231.4 M . . . 16.1% . . 192.7 M . . . 14.8%
3 (3)  . Huawei . . . . 139.0 M . . . . 9.4% . . 108.0 M . . . . 7.5% . . . 75.0 M . . . . 5.8%
4 (8)  . Oppo . . . . . . . 91.0 M . . . . 6.1% . . 50.0. . . . . . . 3.5%  . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - - 
5 (-) . . Vivo . . . . . . . . 73.0 M . . . . 4.9% . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -  . . . . - - - . . . . . . - - -
6 (7)  . ZTE . . . . . . .  57.0 M . . . . 3.8% . . 57.2 M . . . . 4.0%  . . 46.1 M . . . . 3.5%
7 (6)  . LG  . . . . . . . . 55.1 M . . . . .3.7% . . 59.7 M . . . . 4.2% . . . 59.1 M . . . . 4.5%
8 (5)  . Xiaomi . . . . . . 54.3 M . . . . 3.7%. . 71.0 M . . . . .4.9%. . . . 61.1 M . . .  . . 4.7% 
9 (4)  . Lenovo  . . . . . 53.1 M . . . . 3.6% . . 76.3 M . . . . 5.3% . . . 95.2 M . . . . 7.3%
10 (10) . TCL-Alcatel . 38.0 M . . . . 2.6% . . 43.5 M . . . . .3.2%. . . . 41.4 M . . .  . . 3.2% 
Other . . . . . . . . . . . 396.5 M . . . . 26.8%
TOTAL . . . . . . . . .1,480.9 M . . . . . . . . . 1,437.3 M . . . . . . . . .1,300.6 M
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated


There's the big table for you. The top three are stable, have been the same now for two years so Huawei was the company able to break that dangerous 'third place jinx' that seemed to doom so many rivals who were once in third place during the 'smartphone bloodbath years' we had early in this decade. Vivo is the big newcomer jumps in at number 5 and Oppo (part of the same family) is at number 4. Xiaomi never was a serious threat for world domination, and now is lingering in 8th place and doing so badly, the company stopped reporting quarterly unit sales figures. Lenovo is struggling to get traction out of its Motorola brand, LG is back to making losses with its handset business and TCL went and bought Blackberry rights after it previously had acquired Alcatel and Palm brands. The one nearly invisible mid-tier player that is solidly doing a decent job but nobody talks about them is ZTE, riding its carrier relationships and selling smarpthones and climbed one rank from 7th to 6th place.

What can I say? The 'thrill' of the bloodbath and astonishing turmoil in the Top 10 has long since passed. This is a three-horse game, Samsung, Apple and Huawei are set in their positions and that won't change in the next year, there is too much distance between the three players and the rest of the field that tries to climb up. The fight in the mid-tier is jockeying for position but thats a cut-throat Android price war going on there, same type of phones with same specs and no real loyalty anywhere. Chinese brands may climb fast on their domestic market if they have a hit phone (see Xiaomi) and then are unable to turn that into the same success globally because of .. carrier relations (see Xiaomi). And even former powerful brands like say Lenovo's Motorola or TCL's Palm (and now Blackberry) can't turn a player into an overnight success. It takes years to build the global footprint even if you are Apple (who managed it in four years) so don't expect Oppo or Vivo or any next tier player like a Meizumi or any other brands from other countries like say Karbonn or Micromax from India, to have any fast success either, even if they make it into the Top 10. If you want to watch someone, it is how Oppo does. Can it follow in Huawei's footprints (Huawei was at about the same market share two years ago). I doubt it but they're about the only interesting story in this Top 10. And outside the Top 10? HTC continues to play its long-form death. Google's Pixel hahahahaha yeah that was funny when some said they thought Google would be challenging Apple and Samsung. But the outsider to watch is. Nokia. Return has started. The only Android phone model already being sold, did over a million units of sales in China in its first week. HMD the company now running the Nokia phone brand will be showing several phones in Barcelona this month at the big mobile industry event, and they will likely have half a dozen Android smartphone models by the end of the year, sold in most major markets where Nokia used to be strong. Nokia is the dark horse to watch this year, especially towards Q4. I'll give you more of my prognosis after we see the official announcements of their first phones later this month.

So that was the Top 10 brands. What about smartphone OS systems? No race there. For the year it was 84% Android, 15% iOS and less than 1% for all the other brands to share with none getting even large enough to hit 0.5% so we could round-off the number to a pretend-one-percent share. This part of the smartphone 'race' has been settled years ago as I wrote on this blog.

INSTALLED BASE

The most useful info out of this blog article series continues to be the installed base calculation, that nobody else is reporting. What is the total installed base of smartphones in use, rather than what numbers were sold in the past quarter; and more importantly for any developers, what is the SHARE of the installed base, by OS platforms.


SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE AT END OF 2016 BY OPERATING SYSTEM

Rank . . OS . . . . . . . . 2016 units . . share . 2015 units . . share . . 2014 units . . share
1 (1) . .  Android  . . . . 2,560 M . . . . 80% . . 2,079 M . . . . . 79% . . 1,696 M . . . . . 77%
2 (2) . .  iOS . . . . . . . . . 602 M . . . . 19%  . . . 505 M . . . . . 19% . . . . 406 M . . . . . 18%
Others  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 M . . . . . 1% . . . . . 56 M . . . . . . 2% . . . 108 M . . . . . . . 5%
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . . . 3,193 M . . . . . . . . . . . 2,640 M  . . . . . . . . . . 2,210 M
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016
This data may be freely used and repeated

So the smartphone installed base is almost at 3.2 Billion. One in five smartphones in use worldwide is an iPhone, the other 4 out of 5 are Androids. To find ANY other smartphone OS, your chances are 1 in 100, and thats then more likely to be an ancient smartphone clutched by a loyal Nokia brand fanatic on the ancient Symbian OS, or an equally fanatical Blackberry user. Even less likely, but in some places, like in India it may perhaps be a Tizen user. And there is essentially no chance you'll find a Windows user who isn't actually working for Microsoft or is one of its suppliers.

Let me say here that if these numbers are not good enough for you - remember this is a free blog, no registration and no advertising to bug you either - nobody else gives this depth of data for free about smartphone market size - then please yes, do get yourself the brand new TomiAhonen Phone Book. It has all data fresh from one month ago, effective December 2016. For a mere 10 Euros, it has over 100 charts and tables of every conceivable statistic you could hope to find. Screen sizes, camera resolutions, NFC, GPS, Bluetooth, everything you could hope to know about the handset market globally and by regions as well. See table of contents and ordering page here: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016.

(For those who only occasionally visit this blog, note that the previous year's installed base numbers are lower in last year's edition of this statistical summary. We did a recalibration of the installed base numbers last year when some international user data came out. These numbers are the best ones I have, please ignore the old blogs which used the older data model).

Ok, then all we have left to do is for the serious statistical propeller-heads, the Q4 numbers as well.



BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q4 2016

Rank . . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2016 
1 (2) . . . Apple  . . . . . . . 78.3 M . . 18.0% . . . . . . . ( 12.3% ) 
2 (1) . . . Samsung . . . .  77.5 M . . 17.9% . . . . . . . ( 19.8% ) 
3 (3) . . . Huawei  . . . . . . 44.9 M . . 10.4% . . . . . . . (   9.1% ) 
4 (4) . . . Oppo . . . . . . . . 30.6 M . . . 7.1% . . . . . . . (   6.5% )
5 (5) . . . Vivo . . . . . . . . . 24.3 M . . . 5.6% . . . . . . . (   5.3% ) 
6 (8) . . . ZTE  . . . . . . . . 22.6 M . . . 5.2% . . . . . . . (   3.7% )
7 (7) . . . Lenovo .  . . . . . 16.5 M . . . 3.8% . . . . . . . (   3.8% )
8 (6) . . . Xiaomi . . . . . . .15.2 M . . . 3.5% . . . . . . .  (   3.9% )
9 (9) . . . LG  . . . . . . . .  . 14.2 M . . . 3.3% . . . . . . . (   3.6% ) 
10 (10) . TCL/Alcatel . . .  10.5 M . . . 2.4% . . . . . . . (  2.5% ) 
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.2 M
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433.8 M

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis 2 February 2017, based on manufacturer and industry data
This table may be freely shared 


There you go. The industry numbers all here. Top 10 brands and OS platform wars and installed base. Bookmark this page and send your friends, its the only place that has all the market share data in one place. And I report these numbers every quarter here, so expect the next update in April for Q1 of 2017. Last year's numbers are here if you need it.

And yes, if you need more data on the handset market - best data source on the planet is the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016. Get it while it's hot.

Comments

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

Actually @Per using your words/argument that iPhone cornering the premium market. He quote you as how many percent iPhone market was then and now. And using that, he plug in the number apple sold the device, and draw a GREAT conclusion, that the premium market were shrinking.

He might be right, or perhaps wrong.... BUT, if you want to continue using your argument that Apple killing samsung at the high end, then his conclusion is right that's the premium market were shrinking.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne:

Premium share is falling in absolute numbers as well, not only market share.

Just do the quarter-by-quarter analysis of Apple absolute numbers vs Apple share in premium market.

Go on. Post the last two years worth of premium market sales vs Apple share. I'm waiting. :)

[Abdul Muis]

"What doesn't follow is that "Apple's potential market is falling". It's Android's premium market that is falling. Apple continues to take sales from Android (Tim Cook's "switchers") and midrange Android is taking sales. It's like how both Android and iOS gained share at the same time because there were Windows Mobile/Phone and Blackberry customers to take sales from."

Let just say that you were correct...
With Apple sales number falling in 2016 compared to 2015, that's mean:
1. If the premium market is NOT falling, then, Apple is loosing the race
2. If the premium market is falling, then, @PWE is right.

3. Above statement from Cook's is WRONG!!! If Apple is winning the race (stealing Android user), then, Apple should GROW in 2016, NOT SHRINK.

[Abdul Muis]

On the Android vs. iOS generate money bla bla bla....

In Snap’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing from last week, it was revealed that Snapchat’s active users weren’t increasing outside of the US, where Android is the more prevalent platform.

The Snapchat Android app itself was partly to blame, suggests The Information, with bugs, crashing and battery issues appearing after the rollout of its Memories update last year.

Since its executives identified the problems, Snap has offered its employees a free Android phone, hired more devs with Android experience, and Created a team in its Seattle office dedicated to the operating system. The company’s CEO Evan Spiegel has even taken to Reddit to interact with Android users first-hand.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000119312517029199/d270216ds1.htm

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne:

The bubble is bursting.

Apple will find it very hard to grow beyond 250M units, almost impossible to grow beyond 300M units, and the premium race is either shrinking, or they are slowly losing their grip on the premium market.

The numbers do not lie Wayne. Either way is not looking good for Apple, today.

You can either accept it and move on, or stay in your delusional bubble and experience all the shock that comes with you when it finally irrevocably pops. If iPhone 7 grows Apple it will be by very, very little.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne:

Again. That cash generating machine is not going to keep on going even if Apple keeps up with 230M.

You are missing the big picture, which is that the entire deck is stacked against Apple.

Will they disappear tomorrow? Heck no.

But they will sell fewer and fewer phones each year, this is guaranteed due to two things. One is Android network effects.

The second is that these iPhones will be so damned great, they'll last for like five-six years. Meaning the need to replace your phone every third year will be gone... :)

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

230 million iPhone/year is more than enough... it's INCREDIBLE!!!! Problem is not the number, but the perception, expectation, blablabla!!

Right now, a lot of expectation build up on iPhone 8. **IF** iPhone 8 sells WAY bellow iPhone 7 number, it would shatter the imaginary world that Apple create so hard.

Second, as I post above about SnapChat IPO, it happens to all other apps company in USA. One day, they realize they must focus on Android. Put their MAIN effort on android.

[Abdul Muis]

"You may have not noticed, but I haven't been one to hype the upcoming iPhone. I try my best to ignore the rumor press."

It's not you, I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about the fashion driven user. Or should I say the iSheep. The one that using the phone as a status symbol.

"And frankly, the iPhone 7 outsold the 6 anyway in the big Christmas quarter. But so did the 6s so,we have to wait for the coming quarters to see if the 7 falls as much as the 6s did."

Not really.... So far, the 1st quarter after Apple release a phone is a story about production capacity because demands outstrip suply. ***BUT*** Q4 2016 show that perhaps iPhone already hit a peak. Because Apple add 1 more week to their report earning to make it looks like it sell more than Q4 2015. Perhaps the demand have weaken. Apple certainly hope that Q4 2017 demand is higher than their production capacity, but.... if it's not, Apple might need to add 2 weeks to their quarterly earning report.

About iPhone SE, I believe Tomi wasn't saying SE would be able to get lots of marketshare. Tomi say that it make sense not to leave money on the table. Just make it, even though it adds 5% or 10% it's good for apple.

[TomR]

The saving point for Apple is that it is much easier to create apps, sites, services for iPhone. The number of hardware/operating system configurations is incomparably smaller. Try to test your product or service on all android phone types... You can't even write user manual properly as many producers use their own GUI addons, so the user interface differs. And many Android phones don't get updates - so the bugs are not patched... How can you even assure your app or service works on a buggy equipment? iPhones in contrast are uniform and get updates. This way Apple can get apps and services, while not being a dominant phone - it is just more helping at creating, testing, maintaining them.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Many (including me) have hoped for info on the forked Android and unregistered Android user count. We have a good indication to roughly estimate that size of the market.

Google has announced it has 2.0B users on Android (includes tablets). This gives us a good comparison point for the unregistered and forked OS Android phone users (ie mostly Chinese brands). As you know, I counted 2.6B Android smartphones in total in use globally at end of the year. Out of Google's 2.0B active Android users we have to eliminate tablet users - say 200M roughly - then it leaves 1.8B as active Android official, registered smartphone users (vs my 2.6B number for apples-to-apples comparison). Thus about 31% of all Android smartphones (800M out of 2.6B) would be the forked. Sounds about right. Very large part of that will be in China.

So for an 'ecosystem' argument point-of-view, out of the nominal installed base of 2.6B Android phones, the real 'reachable' market is only 1.8B Android phones. That compares with the real number I have for iOS iPhone users, at 600M so Android currently for the practical real market is about 3x larger than iPhone smartphone market. Remember that reality for both is however larger, as an ecosystem, when we add tablets etc. Then we get to that roughly 2.0B total Android vs 1.0B total iOS/Apple users ie 2x larger, but most who own either of those alternative devices, will ALSO have that same OS smartphone - so for uniques, the 3x number, 1.8B to 600M is the relevant comparison.

I am sure many of the readers would love these numbers. When I do the Q1 market share numbers (yeah, yeah, I'll get to it soon-ish) I'll also add this insight there.

Tomi Ahonen :-)