The TomiAhonen Almanac comes around late February every year. It offers the freshest numbers on the just-ended year, ie the 2017 Almanac will report on what year 2016 was like. As the months move on, other sources will report on some of those numbers. For example on mobile subscriber numbers, we get annually updates by Ericsson, the GSM Association, Cisco, GSM Suppliers Association and then, right at the end of the year, also the ITU, the International Telecommunications Union. There are also others who occasionally report on the industry’s top number. Note, during 2016, when those institutions reported their numbers - they all reported the 2015 number. My resource is always first out with the numbers, hoping to aim for Barcelona Mobile World Congress, sometimes just-in-time, sometimes shortly thereafter. But as my numbers are early, and those other ‘big’ institutions release their numbers, it does make sense to compare, how well do my numbers stack up. And I do this every year of course. So lets do that comparison. I am talking about this, one of the most popular tables out of my Almanac series:
You’ll see that last spring I felt the world had 7.6 Billion total mobile subscriptions when machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are included. I felt the world had 7.2 Billion total subscriptions when excluding M2M and just counting those in use by humans. And the most relevant number (bottom line) is the ‘unique’ mobile users, which I felt was an even 5.0 Billion humans in 2015. The chart also has the total handsets-in-use statistic which I felt was 5.6 Billion at the end of 2015. Note that I was literally the first person to report on the distinction of the unique user count vs total subscriptions and I have been urging, nearly begging for the big industry giants to also measure that number. They are slowly joining in that count. Similarly to M2M, we also are now starting to see others report M2M counts. I have yet to see a major mobile statistical provider give a global count of devices in use. That will hopefully come also, soon. But lets examine these three numbers that we now do have other sources, a year later, to see did I know what I was doing.
WHEN YOU ARE OFF BY 1%
When you hit a number that solidly, that it is off by 1 percent, that is essentially perfection. Especially in an industry moving as fast as mobile (the most dynamic giant industry in human economic history). This is what my peers said about the global mobile subscriber count for year 2015, when they released their final counts during year 2016:
GSM Association counted 7.6 Billion mobile subscriptions
Cisco counted 7.9 Billion
Ericsson counted 7.3 Billion
The GSM Suppliers Association counted 7.6 Billion
The Mobile Marketing Association counted 7.45 Billion
And the International Telecommunications Union counted 7.2 Billion
The average of those 6 sources is 7.51 Billion.
What did I report in the TomiAhonen Almanac 2016 edition? I said 7.6 Billion total mobile subscriptions (including M2M). If we accept that the truth is nearest to the average of those other 6, then the truth is 7.51 and I was off by... 1%, the slightest sliver above what the consensus view is. That is essentially perfection. (Yeah, you’re welcome).
BUT WAIT... There was more in that table. What about M2M? Yeah. Sure. Lets do M2M. Five major mobile subscriber count measurements have included a separation of the M2M component. Ericsson says there were 240 million M2M connections in 2015. The GSM Association counted it at 300 million, Cisco counted 550 million, Strategy Analytics found 368 million, and the ITU counted 325 million. The average of those five numbers is 356 million. So I’m a bit ahead of the average of those five, with my number at 400 million. Thats an argument of 12% but I am not the outlier, I am within the extremes reported by those others. 12% off is not perfect but its not bad. Fine, I’ll take that.
WHAT ABOUT UNIQUES
So then the ‘bottom line’ haha. The most important ‘real’ number on mobile users, as opposed to the beautiful big number. What is the unique user count of humans who use a mobile phone today. We now have five sources giving a count of the unique users globally. Ericsson counted 5.1 Billion unique mobile owners for the world in 2015, as they reported last year. Cisco counted 4.8 Billion. The GSM Association found 4.7 Billion. The GSM Suppliers Association measured 5.0 Billion. And Radicati reported 5.8 Billion. When we take the average of these 5 sources, we get 5.08 Billion. What did the TomiAhonen Almanac 2016 tell you one year ago, was the total count of unique mobile users in year 2015? I said 5.0 Billion. Haha, not bad! That is off by 2%. The 5.0 Billion count of uniques is VERY solid number, yes. The ‘best’ number in the world, I’d say. But against my peers, I am 2% below their consensus average. That is gosh, pretty darned good. And thus on 2 of the 3 numbers I am above; on one of the 3 numbers I am below. I am not even someone who consistently 'overcounts' or 'undercounts' the industry. I am pretty darned near spot-on.
WHO IS MOST ACCURATE?
Now what about the others? Only three of those eight sources report each of these three vitally important mobile numbers (total subs, M2M connections and unique mobile users). How far off are THEY? You really can't 'compare' the accuracy of one statistician until you compare to the peer group. So if we average my error across the three measurements my average error is 5.0%. The next most accurate is the GSM Association whose average error across these 3 metrics is 8.0%. Ericsson is next with an average error of 12.0% and worst is Cisco with an average error rate of 21.3%. So who is your daddy? Who knows this industry the best, and who gives you the best numbers. Any year. Mr Mobile Numbers?
That is what you get from my numbers. Solid, solid, reliable numbers that will be valid. And numbers that the author will come back to examine and defend. And I will be the first to announce when any of my numbers change (like last Spring when the total smartphone installed base number changed, as we received new consumer survey data from a global survey by Pew). Now about that handsets in use number? There is no comparison for that (yet). I hope we’ll get numbers soon to verify that statistic as well. But like that, my Almanac has tons of numbers nobody else reports but numbers you really want to know. So with that
First off, if you have not bought my Almanac, get the free 2015 edition now! It has very recent numbers that are FAR BETTER than nothing. And they are by the most reliable stats guy in the industry. Best of all, that version is SHAREWARE and you can share it with anyone! Its not that you are here, on this blog, and reading my numbers. Some of your colleagues are not, and you know they ‘should’ have all the numbers. Give them the Almanac 2015 edition! It is shareware. You are allowed to email it to your friend! Unrestricted pdf file haha. Get the free shareware version of the TomiAhonen Almanac 2015 here.
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