I struggle to come up with new ways to discuss mobile stats as I release my new statistical volumes, but for the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016 that just came out on Friday (with all data current as of the end of the year 2016, ie end of December 2016) I think I came up with another way to help our industry understand the mobile phone 'normal' typical user, a little bit better. Lets talk about the 'median' user. Not the average user, because averages can be distorted by extreme numbers, but taking the median. The exact mid-point where half are 'better' and half are 'weaker' in this case, for a mobile phone population, by their performance metrics, ie their various features. Lets explore the 'median' phone. If all 5.8 Billion mobile phone handsets in use were to be laid end-to-end, with top iPhones at one end and basic text-based super-cheap phones at the other end, what is the mid-point phone, at 2.9 Billion plus one. The phone that sits at 2,900,000,001. Our median phone? What specs would that phone have. The theoretical 'most common phone' that anyone on the planet might have today, in their pockets. Not the median phone specs that were being sold in December, when last year 1.9 Billion new mobile phones were sold (three quarters of them were smartphones). I mean, really, 'seriously' the most useful valuable metric. The MEDIAN PHONE in use in the world today? That would be a brilliant guide for anyone reading this blog, to consider the 'typical mobile user' globally, wouldn't it be? And we do have that information! Lets see what the new Phone Book 2016 tells us.
UPDATE: My dear friend David Doherty aka the 3G Doctor who is on Twitter as @mHealthInsight has done it again. He prepared an infographic for us, to summarize this blog article for you. I think this is great to summarize my babble into one image. And remember if you want to know ANYTHING about how the healthcare industry uses mobile tech, David is the guy, his blog is mHealthInsight.com - so lets do David's Infographic first:
(that Infographic would probably be worth printing out and framing and having each of your programmers and designers and coders memorize, so they won't accidentially just make pretty mobile services that only look nice on an iPhone 7 Plus haha)
So just lets get the big numbers straight. The world has a human population of 7.4 Billion people alive of any age. For those people there are 7.8 Billion mobile subscriptions/accounts (SIM cards) either prepaid or postpaid. BTW, the median phone will be on a prepaid account (says the Phone Book 2016). It will be a 3G phone connected to a 3G network but not a 4G phone yet. So for those 7.4 Billion people with 7.8 Billion active mobile accounts, how many actual mobile phone handsets do we have in use? 5.8 Billion only. Some people have two, three even four or more SIM cards they swap into their one phone (this is very typical of consumers in the Emerging World) while others of us, like probably you and me reading this blog, for us two accounts equals also two phones in our pockets. But yes, so the big numbers we're looking at, right now, is a total planetary population of 5.8 Billion mobile phone handsets in use. And our typical phone, the median phone where exactly half are better and half are worse? It is no longer a featurephone in year 2016, for the first time that median phone is yes, a smartphone. Not an iPhone or Blackberry or Windows based smartphone, the median phone runs Android.
Lets look at this median device a bit more. On page 43 of the Phone Book we have a wonderful table that tells us a lot about the installed base of all phones in the world by the technical features. You and I have WiFi, GPS and NFC on our phones, the median phone does not have such 'advanced' features. The Phone Book reveals that for example GPS is only on 28% of all phones in use. But the median phone is a touch-screen phone. It will have an HTML browser, in fact 83% of all mobile handsets in use worldwide now have an HTML browser. The median phone will alsol have a camera, Bluetooth and a memory card slot. It will support Java apps. Of course it does the basics, has a color screen, supports SMS and MMS and has a media player. That all we learn just on page 43.
Then what about some specifics. What about that screen? Do we know the screen size? Page 60 has the table for us. The median phone is not a phablet, it is a small touch-screen phone by screen size, similar to the original iPhone, with a screen smaller than 4 inches in size, but just barely now, at the end of year 2016, yes, the median phone has a touch screen. A small touch screen but that is the specs we are looking at, if you want the exactly 'most common' type of phone, if you were for example designing a mobile service or program or app or game. Page 56 tells us the camera on the exact median phone has a resolution of 3 megapixels. Is it used for business or personal use? Page 80 gives us that answer, this is not a phone for business use including BYOD phones, the median phone is a personal phone. Page 39 meanwhile tells us the phone has an average replacement cycle of 29 months. It means the median phone owner bought their phone a year and 3 months ago, and will still hold onto this phone for another year and 2 months before replacing it.
And what is the price paid of exactly the median phone in 2016 when both smartphones and dumphones are calculated into the price equation? The AVERAGE phone owner paid 193 dollars for their prized possession last year, worldwide. (BTW this is pretty darned close to exactly the price of fhe new Nokia branded Android smartphones coming out in February, designed by HMD and manufactured by Foxconn). But this blog was not about the average of anything, including average prices. We want the MEDIAN, that phone price where exactly half are more and half are less. Well, we get a rough estimate of that number too. The Price Pyramid of new phones sold in 2016 is on page 32. It tells us the median phone price currently sold was in the price bracket of cheap smartphones in prices between 40 dollars and 149 dollars but that break-off-point would be near the top of that range. So lets say roughly 140 dollars is what the current owner would need to pay to replace his phone. If that phone was now 14 months old, then when he or she bought it, that probably cost about 120 dollars. (I want to thank sharp-eyed reader Abdul Muis who caught my mistake of mixing average prices with median phone specs, thanks Abdul). Don't you just love the Phone Book 2016? Who else has this kind of data for you? How incredibly valuable is this for your team considering what the 'typical' internet user is like globally? Or the user of your mobile wallet or the one consuming your ad or game or music or service? And where can you see these specs for free today?
The Median Mobile Phone Handset In Use on the Planet December 2016 Specs:
Smartphone on Android
Touch Screen
Smaller than 4 inch screen size
3mp camera
3G phone on 3G network
Prepaid contract
Bluetooth
MicroSD card slot
FM Radio
But no WiFi, no NFC, no GPS, no 4G
Is one year and 3 months old
Owner will hold onto the phone for another 1 year and 2 months
A median price phone would cost about 140 dollars today if owner were to replace it
(the phone as described would have cost about 120 dollars in 2015)
(prices are unsubsidised prices/SIM-free/no contract)
Source: TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016
The above table may be freely shared.
There! A novel way to explore the planet's most popular gadget, thanks to the brand new TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016. All the stats and facts you could hope for, in one ebook, that has 180 pages, over 100 tables and charts of every conceivable mobile fact and data item, and the whole thing is formated to fit on your smartphone so you can carry all the handset statistics in your pocket every day. The whole thing just costs a lousy 10 Euros too. Get your Phone Book 2016 today
Tomi, maybe Hans Rossling's infographics can be an inspiration?
https://www.gapminder.org/
Posted by: Winter | January 02, 2017 at 03:14 PM
@Tomi: any phone model sold over 10mio is a thing? http://consumer.huawei.com/en/press/news/hw-u_033702.htm
What should Nokia (HMD) do to have such model(s) in 2017?
Will they be capable to deliver in such volume?
Should HMD go for the median, full range or premium?
Posted by: zlutor | January 02, 2017 at 03:46 PM
@Tomi
I think you're wrong on the phone or the price of the phone. For US$ 193....
If I want Samsung, For US$ 193, around september 2015, I can get:
1. Samsung Galaxy J5 - 5.0" screen, 13MP/5MP camera, b/g/n wifi, 4G,
2. or perhaps Samsung Galaxy J2 - 4.7" screen, 5MP/2MP camera, b/g/n wifi, 4G
If I want Xiaomi, I'm in India/China, or perhaps in other part of the world and buying the grey import market phone, september 2015, I can get:
1. Xiaomi Redmi 2 - 4.7", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n wifi, 4G
2. Xiaomi Redmi 2 Prime - 4.7", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n wifi, 4G
Or Huawei, in September 2015, I can get
1. Huawei Honor 4 Play about US$120 when released in late 2014 - 5" screen, 8MP/2MP, b/g/n wifi, 4G
2. Huawei Honor 4C - 5", 13MP/5MP, b/g/n, 3G
3. Huawei Y625 - 5", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n, 3G
On Asus, For US$#193, September 2015, I can get
1. Asus Zenfone 2E, about US$150 - 5", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n, 4G
2. Asus Zenfone 2 ZE500CL - 5", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n, 4G
All the price I write here is FULL PRICE / UNSUBSIDIZED.
So, If you insisting on the US$193, I think the phone would be 4.7"-5" in size, have wifi 2.4GHz (b/g/n), perhaps have 4G or perhaps not.
Posted by: Abdul Muis | January 02, 2017 at 05:20 PM
@Tomi
PS:
I think all android phone have wifi. Samsung Galaxy J1, the cheapest samsung phone that were android, that were available in Q1 2015, priced around US$120 (4G version is US$130), also have wifi.
Posted by: Abdul Muis | January 02, 2017 at 05:57 PM
Hi Abdul
Perhaps I was not clear. The phone I described is the median by specs, such a phone does not exist in reality. One year and 14 months ago the median phone was not a smartphone, it was a featurephone and the average price even then was well below 193, it was around 150 dollars. The real phone you would look at was more in line with a Nokia Asha at that time.
But today yes, if you spend 193 dollars you'll get a pretty nice mid-specs Android. That is not what is the median phone in use. The median phone in use if going strictly by the exact mid-point of all phones is as I described.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 02, 2017 at 06:06 PM
@Tomi,
All the phone I wrote above is released before september 2015, and priced around US$193 or bellow US$193 at the launched time, which is BEFORE september 2015....
In early 2014, the latest generation of nokia asha, which won't have successor, were sold around US$60-100. If it's still available in september 2015 the priced will be even lower.
The latest feature phone in H2 2015 by Nokia have a street price around US$30-40.
Posted by: Abdul Muis | January 02, 2017 at 06:32 PM
Abdul
I hear you. You didn't listen to me. There is no such phone as I describe, it is a mathematical amalgamation. The EXACT same argument you use, could be used for phones from Japan, that they have featurephones that have NFC, 4G, WiFi, GPS and 16mp cameras, are waterproof. Because of the vast difference in the international markets - in India most phones are dual SIM for example, but in Europe most phones are not - we can't have the exact specs of what I described.
BUT if you are a DESIGNER, or advertiser, media, etc - then if you want to design your service to work on 'more than half of all phones' then these specs I outline give you that ability today. It can be 3G, does not need to be a 2.5G phone but you can't plan your service for 4G and hope to get to half of all pockets. It can be a touch screen phone yes for the first time now in 2016, but then it cannot be a phablet-sized screen, it has to be a small touch-screen phone.
There is no phone like I described and if you take a major market where the planet's phones are the cheapest (ie India) and hugely competitive, then of course you'll find 'better' phones at the price points that I describe. Now go to Latin America and try the same, they have much more controlled markets, far less competition and the markets beyond Brazil and Mexico are far smaller meaning their local prices tend to be significantly higher simply because of the distribution matters etc.
I can't help you with the truth that the exact mathematics produces a phone that doesn't exist and that a 'better' phone is (or had been) available. People do not buy that phone. In 2015 when you describe the world, the most-sold phones were still featurephones. BUT then, the featurephones most close to the median - would be closer to those Japanese phones than the by-then-dead Asha phones. I used the Asha example to illustrate to most of our readers that there are/were featurephones that were almost identical to lower-end Android smartphones by specs.
Again, there is no phone such as I describe. BUT the global median specs meet this imaginary phone I described. If you are a designer and prepare your app or service or ad or coupon or mobile wallet etc to work on '3G Touch Screen Bluetooth 3mp camera on 3.5 inch screen size' - you are SAFE that half of all phones in the world - including some featurephones - will work on that service by the performance and specs of that design. If you design for a 4G phone with WiFi, NFC, 5 inch screen and 8mp camera, you will with each item exclude parts of the phone population and end up with something closer to 10% of all phones than 51%. This is the point of this analysis and article. I am certain you agree, that even in India it would be foolish today to release a service running on specs you listed like Xiaomi Redmi 2 - 4.7", 8MP/2MP, b/g/n wifi, 4G. NONE of those specs meet half of India population today, not even close to half.
I hope that makes sense.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 03, 2017 at 02:13 AM
@Tomi,
About the phone specs... I agree, and think what you said is make sense. I also agree that if we line up all the phone that were used in 2016, the median will be a very low specs android phone with small screen.
My confusion (I quote my self) "I think you're wrong on the phone or the price of the phone." .... I think the median price is too high. I somehow think you accidentally put '1', and the median price should be $93.
Thank you.
Posted by: Abdul Muis | January 03, 2017 at 03:40 AM
Hi Abdul
No actually YOU are right haha. Now that you mention it, I did not talk about median PRICE, I used the ASP from the Phone Book which of course distorts this issue now, because the OTHER stats were all median but the price was average (high prices distort the average). I will go correct the blog. I should have used the price pyramid also in the Phone Book (although it reflects current prices) and the median price is below 149 dollars (the price bracket is 40 to 149 but the cut-off point would be near the top, so probably current median price is around 140 dollars and was maybe around 120 dollars fourteen months ago)
I'll go change the blog and credit you of course for spotting the discrepancy. Thanks. Of course if I write a blog talking about the differences of 'average' and 'median' it would be then have to be that precise blog where I myself make that very same mistake haha.. Thanks Abdul.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 03, 2017 at 04:50 AM
@Tomi
About price.... $120 make sense. But I'm surprised that the median were going up. I thought when the market were saturated, and the device life is longer, the median will go down.
One more thing.... About wifi.
I believe ALL (100%) of Android device have Wifi, and MOST high end feature phone also have wifi. Why the median phone doesn't have wifi, if both high end feature phone or cheap android phone have wifi. Are you mixing Wifi usage (whether the user use wifi or cellular data only) with Wifi capable (have wifi capability) device?
Thanks.
Posted by: Abdul Muis | January 03, 2017 at 05:21 AM
Hi Abdul
Median AND average price are going up because of the transition from dumbphones to smartphones. It was observed several years ago (I reported it already in the 2014 edition of the Phone Book and other phone industry experts have also reported the prices going up for the whole industry).
As to WiFi, most Android phones do have WiFi but all do not, its exactly the lowest-end phones that do not. That is where the cross-over is and in the next Phone Book we'll see WiFi has crossed the line to be also included in more than 50% of all phones in use. Already currently new phones sold are majority WiFi yes. Its only a point of time.
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 03, 2017 at 06:49 AM
Hi Everybody
To all in the thread, note that I have added an update to the blog. David Doherty has created an infographic summarizing main points of the median phone. An excellent simple infographic that is now on the top of the blog essentially telling the whole story in one picture..
Tomi Ahonen :-)
Posted by: Tomi T Ahonen | January 03, 2017 at 11:52 AM