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« TCL Continues its World Domination Plan, now adds Blackberry to its Brands (to Alcatel and Palm) | Main | Preview from TomiAhonen Phone Book 2016 Edition: Internet Users Globally... by Screen Size »

December 21, 2016

Comments

Applewontstopyou

"but LG? LG was another Top 10 brand, it has been ranked at its peak at number 3, it still happily sells smartphones as a Top 10 brand and still sells a few dumbphones too? You can't argue 'scale' because the scale argment went for Samsung"

Actually you can argue "scale" because Apple provides it for LG. Apple does not steal technology. They buy it. Apple is LG's biggest customer. LG produces huge amount of displays and other components for Apple. Apple is a giant and rules more than any one of you realize. Apple is Intels and Samsungs biggest customer. Everybody wants to be part of Apples supply chain because even though they are the tuff customer they are ready to pay and the pay in advance not like Nokia 3-6 months later.

E.Casais

"And the N9 was better than the N8"

Sorry, when the N9 was released I looked into it and in many aspects it was definitely inferior to the N8.

Inferior camera. No Xenon flash. No replaceable battery. No HDMI connector. No microSD card.

Regarding the OS, at least the user interface was superior -- but overall the OS left an impression of not being quite polished.

"Frankly, it's ONLY Nokia's brand that's going to be offered."

I have been saying this all the time. These will basically be ODM (Foxconn) devices. The old Nokia expertise is gone, scattered to all winds.

Be prepared to be disappointed.

"I don't think Nokia's camera tech is light years ahead anymore."

On the contrary, it probably still is. However, it is being put into use for the new Nokia products like the OZO -- not for mobile phones.

"I look to Lenovo's purchase of Motorola, and Blackberry's Android products as reason to not put TOO much stock in "brand power".

The specific case of Motorola is a bit different. It only continued to be a brand in America. In Europe and Asia, Motorola had disappeared from the market long ago.


Abdul Muis

Size....
Phablet is the ultimate size that kill medium size phone & tablet...

https://9to5mac.com/2016/12/27/flurry-analytics-2016-apple-leads-holiday-phone-activations/31874464376_063ee2db9e_o/

Tester

@applewontstopyou:

"What a comblete bullshit. If you want to have company specific app you do not need go through the App Store. You are completely free from Apple's supervision and you can do what ever you want to. Apple does not slow you down in any way or form. They actually provide all the tools what you need."

Not if BYOD comes into the picture. They you are back to square one. And you'd still need to do the app twice, i.e. double the costs. For the price of app development you can buy 30 low end Android phones easily. iOS development here only pays off if everybody is using an iPhone, it really doesn't matter if only one out of 10 relevant employees is having one.

Abdul Muis

http://www.androidpure.com/nokia-e1-ta-1000-passes-3c-certification-coming-soon/
Nokia E1 TA-1000 passes 3C certification, coming soon

Winter

Fun for the holidays:

OLD GROWTH iPHONE FORESTS IN DANGER
http://www.satirewire.com/content1/?p=6181

Abdul Muis

@John

It's about BB brand....

In BB OS 7 era, BB hardware+OS is very bad. Many user fix their phone issue mainly by pulling the battery. Do you think they will buy another BB just because it have hardware keyboard?

In BB OS 10 era, BB software selection is very dull. Most of BB device also have weak/slow hardware. So, those who move to other brand (OS) suddenly feel that their live with BB was a joke.

So, I think the reason that BB Priv is not selling well is because most of BB users/customers already moved on to other brand. No one intrested in BB device anymore.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi John & Abdul

About the Priv and QWERTY keyboards. First. Confession time: I am a proud owner of a Priv. I like it.

Now. About Blackberry, QWERTY keyboards and hybrids. First, John you're wrong. Its a common misconception by people who don't visit the Emerging World markets and see the reality. QWERTY keyboards are still evident but not in large numbers anymore. Blackberry clones are still 'a thing' but yes, in diminishing numbers. Samsung made still two years ago a Galaxy branded 'Berry clone' at the lower end of the price point sold in countries like Thailand, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines. I'm sure it also sold in places like India, Bangladesh, Kenya etc but I didn't see one there when I was there roughly at that time. I did not do a thorough search haha.

So first we have to separate the hardware QWERTY keyboard from the company and product, the Blackberry. While most Blackberries had QWERTY keyboards that was not the reason why Blackberry was briefly a huge hit in the consumer market. It WAS part of the key to why BB was a success in the corporate market (email). The brief success in the consumer market from 2008 to 2011 was due to... BBM not the keyboard. The Blackberry Messenger was the first globally-available IM service to hit mass market level of success and was the first to supplant youth from SMS addiction, as I wrote on this blog and in my books, it was the 'harder drug' where SMS was the 'entry drug'. Now Whatsapp has taken its place.

Blackberry could have had the world if it struck when the iron was hot, in 2010 or so, and pushed hard at the youth market, powered by BBM. They could have 1 Billion users today (like Whatsapp) but selling a PHONE to them as well (ie selling 400 million devices per year, like Nokia did at its peak). What RIM ie Blackberry should have done in 2009-2010 was STUDY why there was a suddenly-addicted huge fan base globally for Blackberry and SERVED THAT need, rather than launch a tablet to compete with Apple.

Now, BBM works with ANY old Blackberry. So once Blackberry the phone decided to not really be competitive against the Samsung Galaxies and Apple iPhones and various smartphones from LG and SonyEricsson and HTC and even Nokia back then, but rather Blackberry ran through its delays-upon-delays-upon-delays with its new OS, that was when the market window-of-opportunity died. Any youth or young adult who loved BBM and had friends on it, could use the OLD Blackberry still, and they would instead replace their OTHER smartphone every 18 months. And Blackberry never saw the repeat business, they went rapidly up a mountain, stepped over a cliff, and fell to their death.

Had nothing to do with the hardware keyboard; everything to do with BBM. Whatsapp came in at the right moment to steal the addicted IM messaging users.

Now ENTERPRISE customers are a sticky bunch, they don't switch phones often and OS systems very rarely. BUT when you the OS provider make a generational change - like with BB 10 - THAT IS THE DANGER MOMENT. That is when you LOSE some customers who were waiting to reduce their total IT overload and limit the number of OS platforms being supported. When Blackberry did BB 10 OS, it was geared to consumer markets but it ended up opening a door the enterprise customers would not have even noticed - the door to exit the old BB system. And many left. So while BB 10 was not able to convert consumers to Blackberry, it enabled the exodus of many corporate clients. That accelerated Blackberry's fall.

With that, what of QWERTY then? QWERTY keyboards if done well (Nokia E-series, Blackberry) are the fastest way to type text. No matter how good a touch screen keyboard can be, a physical QWERTY dedicated keyboard is faster. And many who are very heavily addicted to messaging or in work - email - or also to a lesser degree in Facebook and Twitter the social media crowd - they will love the speed of a physical QWERTY slider keyboard (like me loving that in the old Nokia E7 and now in the Blackberry Priv).

BUT the comparison in the late 2000s decade was NOT comparing a Blackberry to a touch-screen Galaxy or iPhone, most who were considering a Blackberry were USING a T9 based basic keyboard phone back then (phones bought in the middle of the decade). And against a T9 keyboard with 12 keys where you press 3 times for any one alphabet letter, the QWERTY was MANY TIMES faster. BUT one the touch screen keyboards got good enough, a touch screen keyboard was ALSO faster than a T9. And easily twice as fast. So now the difference between a touch screen vs QWERTY screen was only modest advantage to QWERTY. And the baggage was often a smaller screen and often no touch screen. So now the touch screen, while not fastEST for typing, was still fastER than T9. But touch screens far superceded pure QWERTY (classic Blackberry style) smartphones on everything else.

Then it was a question, do you want a hybrid (like Nokia Communicators or now the Blackberry Priv, where you have both a touch screen AND a separate SLIDER or folder QWERTY). Those are bulkier and more expensive. Both the Nokia E7 in 2011 and now the Blackberry Priv in 2015 were the most expensive smartphone sold in the market when new. More expensive than top iPhones (and haha, yeah, I had to have them both, I'm a QWERTY guy). And then its a lot about the price/performance and marketing support issues. The Nokia E7 was setting sales records on fire in China in January 2011, but then Elop did his Elop Effect and destroyed Symbian and E7 sales collapsed. The Priv, well, it seems to have been far too little far too late (and probably overpriced too).

Can there be a market for a QWERTY hybrid smartphone? Yes. Is that market large enough to sustain a global brand and its marketing? That is not certain anymore. The Priv is a hard lesson and it was a kind of 'Hail Mary pass' attempt by Blackberry. Running on Android, with pretty good flagship specs and the slider QWERTY in a very slim phone for a slider, it is nice and sexy and could have been a hit phone. But this is a hits business, if your phone is NOT the hit of the moment, it won't give you your Motorola Razr moment in the sun. The Priv was not meant to be.

I think HMD will look at physical hardare keyboards in the style of the Nokia N950 and E7 and the previous Communicator styles. They would have the competence to do those well and there would be a pent-up demand by some, and the phone itself would be instantly identified as a premium Nokia phone. It could even be branded a Communicator again. BUT it would be a gamble. I would not expect HMD to try this when they are getting onto their feet. They'd need to first get their main business in order.

But if you look at cars, there are fashions in cars, that come and go. Sometimes a concept in cars seems to die out and then suddenly have a resurrection. I use the example of convertible-top cars, that nearly ended out in the 1970s but were brought back in large part by Saab (original convertible versions by the way, were conversions done in Saab's factory in Finland, as were previously the sportiest Saabs, the turbo models, as were also Volvo's first turbo models haha. Something about Finns and cars).

If HMD Nokia were to have a flagship phone in say year 2018, branded Communicator, super-specced out with flagship stuff, and a QWERTY slider, it could be a comeback phone, and it could spark a return of the form factor. BUT it could just as easily flop like the Priv did. I am not holding my breath haha. I'd hope HMD focuses on the big market opportunities first, gets itself very well set, and then do some smart market research. BUT.. the EXECUTIVES in telecoms often also drive these things. A cool 'must have' killer luxury Nokia Communicator could be the thing to buy their love and loyalty, to be something that technically blows both the iPhone and Galaxy away. THAT could be a monster phone.

One last point - folding screens. The folding screen coming from Samsung could herald an era back to days of full QWERTY keyboards on premium phones. Don't be surprised if that happens...

PSPS the full stats on keyboard, inputs, screen sizes and types - are all in the PhoneBook 2016 out later tonight..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

paul

@Wayne

Apple will cut iPhone production to start 2017

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-apple-to-cut-iphone-production-in-jan-march-quarter-nikkei-2016-12?r=US&IR=T&IR=T

Apple to cut iPhone production by 10%

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/30/report-apple-cut-iphone-production-10/96001250/

So from now on is only one way for Apple to go and that is down!

paul

Nokia TA-1000 Specs: First Nokia Android Phone with 3C Certificate; Nougat OS, 5.5-inch Device could be E1, Not D1C

http://www.universityherald.com/articles/57936/20161230/nokia-ta-1000-specs-nokia-android-phone-3c-certificate-nougat-nokia-e1-d1c-review.htm

paul

@Wayne

> of course Apple is doomed.

Haha... everybody is doomed. Everybody will die sooner or later. Everybody will go down sooner or later. It is a matter of time only. There will be a time when Apple will be bankrupt. That time might be in 2 years, 20 years, or 200 years. So... nothing is new! Everybody (even Apple) just tries to die or go bankrupt in the slowest possible way. Apple is doomed and eventually will go bankrupt!

> the news is actually good. Q4, the Christmas quarter, is Apple's volume max for the cycle.

Sorry, not interested at all in that!

paul

@wayne

Tim Cook’s terrible year in review

http://nypost.com/2016/12/30/tim-cooks-terrible-year-in-review/

Abdul Muis

@Paul

I think Tim Cook is not the best man to run Apple, and Apple need to find someone to replace him, before he turned Apple into BB downward trajectory.

In Steve Jobs era, Apple would spend $1 million dollar to build iconic staircase.

In Tim Cook era, Apple try to cut cost by using not the best material such as using intel model to cut cost (http://cellularinsights.com/iphone7/). This cut cost measure is not the first/only one done by Tim Cook.

paul

@Abdul Muis

I do not like Apple because of the way it treats its customers and employees BUT I have to say that Steve Jobs was the best thing has ever happened to Apple.

Abdul Muis

@paul

agree with you.
I also don't like the way Steve do his tenure, such as when he want to thermonuclear the competition. But I agree with you that Steve was the best leader Apple had.

Tester

@Abdul Muis:

"In Tim Cook era, Apple try to cut cost by using not the best material such as using intel model to cut cost (http://cellularinsights.com/iphone7/). This cut cost measure is not the first/only one done by Tim Cook."

It's even worse with Macs. Steve Jobs at least knew how to keep an operating system competetive, but Cook?

- build quality of Macs has decreased significantly.
- unlike older models it has become nearly impossible to replace components.
- a gradual transition from industry standard APIs to vendor lock-in.

The last one in particular reeks of Steve Ballmer, who did the same with Windows where only the quasi-monopoly saved his ass. But seeing how Cook botched 3D APIs on current Macs will really hurt Apple. Developers are not interested in Metal, the market share is far too low. Where's Vulkan?

Catriona

@Tester, if you read the Steve Jobs' biography, you'd know that Jobs was NOT a proponent of easy upgradability or repairability. He wanted computers to be appliances that customers didn't see the inside of. Wozniak the engineer disagreed.

Regarding the iPhone modems, I think Apple is trying to avoid once again becoming too dependent on a single vendor lest they help finance another future competitor (e.g. Samsung).

As for vendor lock in, note that Apple is now shipping both the MacBook and MacBook Pro lines with industry standard charging ports that do not require proprietary accessories. While the transition from the legacy USB-A/mini DisplayPort/MagSafe isn't painless, in the long run Macs will be more in line with industry standards than before.

Abdul Muis

@Catriona

"Regarding the iPhone modems, I think Apple is trying to avoid once again becoming too dependent on a single vendor lest they help finance another future competitor (e.g. Samsung). "

I don't think so. I think Tim Cook trying to find a way to negotiate the price of the modem with Qualcomm. Using some of the iPhone with intel modem is just a test in the water for Apple, and a warning for Qualcomm.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Catriona:

"if you read the Steve Jobs' biography, you'd know that Jobs was NOT a proponent of easy upgradability or repairability. He wanted computers to be appliances that customers didn't see the inside of. Wozniak the engineer disagreed."

But those concepts are not mutually exclusive.

A car does not require a mechanic to drive, yet a car is usually relatively easy to upgrade and repair. I see no reason why computers can't be the same - If you don't care about what's inside them, more power to you, but if you can cater to those who *do* care, well...

Apple used to be *the* computer for power users and the people wanting it simple. They are more and more losing their grip on both target groups...

chithanh

Microsoft apparently stopped selling Lumias in their stores. All listed models are out of stock. A couple devices exist in the channel still.
Not surprising since they sold the factory that produced Lumias to Foxconn.
Meanwhile, still no sign of the Surface phone.

About Apple: As we are past peak iPhone of course there is only one way the sales can go.

About the Intel vs. Qualcomm modems: Intel factories are underutilized, and they desperately tried to get into mobile for years. Intel probably offered the 4G/LTE modem at a price Apple just could not refuse. This of course shows how much consideration Apple has for their users vs. for their profits.

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