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« Countdown to the End of Trump: Seven Days Left. Seven Days. One Week To Go, and Then He's Gone! | Main | Data Wars: Trump Bought Battery-Powered Toy Car for Toddlers; Hillary Runs Up-Engined Race Car (and a TEAM to run it). Perhaps the Biggest Lopsided Advantage of 2016 »

November 03, 2016

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PaulEdward79

Further evidence the republicans are screwing themselves for next decade or more regarding the Latino vote.

Quote: These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/clintons-30-point-lead-in-fla-hispanic-poll-is-terrifying-to-gop-nationwide-107067

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So onto the Hispanic wave. Florida has a fresh poll of only Hispanic voters by Univision. Florida has a mix of different ethnic background Hispanics of which the Cuban heritage are most pro-Republican and the Puerto Ricans most pro-Democrat. Overall in 2012, the state voted nearly 40% for Mitt Romney by far the best Hispanic state for the Republicans. He got 39% then (60% was for Obama so 21% Hispanic margin in favor of the Democrat)

Trump is doing worse. That we know. How bad is it? He's at 30%. Hillary matches Obama at 60% which gives the state of Florida a massive 30% margin for Hillary for the Hispanic vote. The difference is 200,000 votes that Hillary picks up, ie again, a swing of 400,000 against Trump. Thats worth a 3% margin in the count if the vote total is about 12 million for Florida.

The Republican party is despondent because if Florida moves to a state that has Hispanics voting against Republicans so badly that they only get 30% Hispanic vote, plus they already have alienated the black vote which is nearly as big in the state, then Florida becomes a light-blue state, no longer a battleground state, from about 2020 partly as the demographic shifts benefit Democrats.

If Florida is no longer competitive as a battleground, then the Republicans cannot win the White House. This is the same problem they already achieved once, in a purple state. California. It was the same stupid shit they pulled there. Racism against Hispanics. In 1994 Gov Pete Wilson (Republican) ran the Proposition 187 for a state referendum, to deny undocumented Hispanics from using state emergency services like hospitals. The law passed, it was later found unconstitutional and ended. But this law turned the passive and relatively neutrally-voting Hispanics of California utterly against Republicans and both activated them, and to be loyally Democratic. STUPID MOVE. Now Trump is doing the same in Florida where the GOP had its strongest remaining Hispanic support.

And what do we think this does to Hispanics of Texas and Arizona too? If Trump is turning the REPUBLICAN-friend Florida Hispanics against him, down from 39% to 30% of support, then what of those in Texas and Arizona who already only supported Republicans at a rate of about 30%. That will be now down to .. at best 20%, could be 15%.

And yes, there are MORE HISPANICS by population than blacks, and they are GROWING faster, have larger families and are younger by age. Its absolutely batshit crazy stuff to go anger that demographic TOO. After you lost the blacks. And here we go, Trump is Prop 187 again. And he seems to be costing the GOP Florida. If so, he is also costing them Arizona from being a red state to becoming permanently a purple state, and possibly now also turning Texas purple, even if Hillary can't win Texas yet this year (as I've said many times, I expect Texas to be decided by under 1% either way).

It ALSO means that most elected new Hispanics will be... Democrats. And those few Republican Hispanics like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio - will become endangered species. I am hopeful that Rubio loses his seat in Florida but thats a race thats tight but he still clings to a modest lead there. But we see for example President Obama attacking Rubio in Florida, trying to help unseat him.

So Trump seems to be driving away about one in four remaining loyal Republican-leaning Hispanics. That is a lot. If the rate holds nationally, expect the Hispanic vote for Trump to be around 22%. Romney got 27% nationally. The GOP said in its Autopsy that unless they get to 40% Hispanic support for this year, 2016 Presidential election, they cannot win the White House. Trump is headed to essentially half that level. Or in Trumpian words: He is losing 'bigly'.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Lugnut

Very good point, thanks. You seem to be new to our little club of chatting about the election - welcome! I have been doing big detailed Electoral College 'map' studies here for months. I do a weekly count-down that makes your point exactly. Its not a national vote, its 51 individual elections and the battlegrounds decide who will be President. Its a very good point, we do discuss that and I think most who read these political blogs of mine, have understood that point already a while back. But you're right, I did not mention that here. So yes, its the EV vote and the in-state polls that totally superceded a national poll or an average of those.

That said, as we've seen, Hillary has led the EV 'map' every single day its been measured and is up again today, by RCP 'no toss-ups' map. She is going to win this election and if the election was held today, and we used the latest polls of the states, she'd be the President. Those in-state polls have shown a few states bouncing back-and-forth (Florida, Ohio, Arizona) but not once has Hillary been that far behind, that the even momentary, daily snapshot, had her behind (in 2008 and in 2012, Obama was at times behind, but this season, Hillary has never lagged in the EV race).

So yeah. She is safely ahead there. She has a 'firewall' of several states that Trump can't take like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado etc - and there isn't enough time for those states to move enough for Trump to steal any of them. But he is of course trying and Hillary has massive superiority of every conceivable election tool to defeat his efforts from more surrogates to more money for TV ads to more in-state offices to more salaried staff to more volunteers etc. Trump can't turn that turkey around...

But thanks for mentioning it. We do know. That said, because not all states have that many daily polls out, to see IF there is a sudden change in the race - like say with p*ssygate or the debates - to see such changes, we look at the national polling first. And that is why we've looked at those recent polls like Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP etc who have been out in the past few days with big headline news, claiming its a tight race, Trump is ahead by one point, etc. And I made this blog posting just to point out, no this race is not suddenly tight. That is utter bullshit Republican propaganda. And now, just today, we have the Reuters/Ipsos poll that is consistent with my view that its about a 7% race, and its more spreading APART than coming closer together (Ipsos/Reuters finding it 8% today). But that too, is only one poll. We wait for more.

I will be collecting the final polls over the weekend and doing a last look to how the race ended, and see which states may hold surprises etc. That will all be based on in-state polls.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


It has been interesting. Can't wait to see the final numbers!

I'd like to bring up a couple of points.

1) The 'hidden' racists. Folks like the father of an acquaintance who used to curse Blacks, even after his daughter married one. His son was horrified at his dad's attitudes. He was Canadian. In some of the southern states, this may be more common. I know that when I was driving in some of the southern states I saw some of the Black neighborhoods, and they looked like they belonged in a third world country. How the 'hidden' rascists will impact the election I don't know, but folks like this do tend to be older, and often the kids are more cosmopolitan.

2) The big story of this election will be women. The increased turnout, plus the women in Republican households who cannot publicly admit they are voting Democrat is going to skew this election in ways that will really shake things up.

3) Voter suppression, whether through fake ads (you can vote by texting) or by trying to block folks from voting by not having enough voting booths/machines. I have no idea how much impact this will have.

But I'm still predicting a 14-18% advantage for Hillary Clinton. The Senate will flip, the House will be close, and we are going to see a number of state governments flip.

Yes, I intend to buy a ton of popcorn for Tuesday.

Winter

About voter suppression in the USA (does it happen elsewhere? I know it happened in Zimbabwe)

It’s the Republicans who rig elections, Donald: The GOP history of voter suppression goes way back
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/18/its-the-republicans-who-rig-elections-donald-the-gop-history-of-voter-suppression-goes-way-back/

America Is Already in the Midst of a Voter Suppression Crisis
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/10/republicans_are_already_suppressing_minority_votes_all_over_america.html

The Republican Party is an Anti Democracy Party. And it has been fighting one-man-one-vote since a loooong time.

Winter

North Carolina Republicans conspired to limit early voting to keep African-Americans from the polls
N.C. officials lobbied at least 17 counties to limit voting hours — especially on weekends and evenings VIDEO
http://www.salon.com/2016/11/03/north-carolina-republicans-conspired-to-limit-early-voting-to-keep-african-americans-from-the-polls/

Ievshenko

Interesting news coming around. First of, regarding the Latino vote: Latino Decisions, considered the best pollster of U.S. Latinos, polled seven different states to see how the Latino vote went. The polling is from September through late October, so a long time span, but I doubt there's been much shift in the Latino vote. If these numbers hold, Trump will lose bigly.
Arizona: 70%-18%
Florida: 63%-23%
Nevada: 72%-17%
North Carolina: 69%-19%
California: 78%-11%
New York: 75%-14%
Texas: 68%-18%

So yeah, Latino numbers looking bad for Trump. And so is early voting.
But apparently, a deadly opposition piece is set to drop today. Rick Wilson, Frank Luntz, and others have hinted at two devastating stories for Trump for weeks. And Kurt Eichenwald is releasing a story about Trump's ties to Russia. If the rumors are true (follow this guy for information on them https://twitter.com/noclador/status/794140936754368512), then all bets are off.

Winter

@levshenko
"Rick Wilson, Frank Luntz, and others have hinted at two devastating stories for Trump for weeks."

The stories must directly hurt uneducated, older white male voters. Because, most Trump supporters are absolutely not interested in the well being of other compatriots, and they are absolutely not interested in the continued existence of the USA. On the contrary, they want to bring down as many federal institutions as possible, if not the federal state altogether.

Draining the swamp of Washington DC means dismantling the USA as a federal state.

Winter

From next week on, we will see many more of these:

Trump Is A Clinton Plant.
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1141970/pg1

Because, their horrible loss could never be the fault of Republican voters being so stupid as to rage war against their own party and try to elect an utterly incompetent psychopath for president. This must have been a conspiracy to destroy the Republican Party.

We were not at fault, it was those satanic Clintons that did it.

Paul

Democratic insiders: Clinton's ground game will sink Trump

'Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure. HRC and the Dems have that cornered and are pounding the pavement to get out the vote,' said a Colorado Democrat.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

Winter

More about the GOTV:

The 7 voter turnout questions that could decide the 2016 election
What to watch for as both parties put their get-out-the-vote operations into high gear.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/1/12987600/turnout-get-out-the-vote-ground-game

"But by the metrics that are available right now (which, admittedly, aren’t always the best at measuring effectiveness), it actually looks like the Trump-hobbled GOP of 2016 might not actually be that far behind the inferior-but-still-trying GOP of 2012 — a party that certainly didn’t “win” the ground game but that definitely had some ability to mobilize its voters."

"The real doomsday scenario for Republicans is this: Trump might have even depressed turnout among his own fans. “If you say the process is rigged,” says Green, “you’re sort of implicitly saying the process doesn’t really matter” — an especially bad message if you’re trying to reach out to low-propensity voters to begin with. "

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

We have a tidbit into what the Trump Campaign has and is using for its targeting. They've paid at least 5 million dollars to British data mining company Cambridge Analytica to get a segmentation system with 230 million US voting age population and CA has assigned/calculated the propensity scores (2 scales, scores from 1 to 100) and created the target matrix of who is where.

The point is, CA has used TRADITIONAL classic old-fashioned inaccurate but better-than-nothing methods, of market research and consumer behavior data to populate that model!

So this is the same that Romney did, only done by a professional market data company. Its NOT the process Hillary's team (and Obama in 2012) used, to TALK TO EVERY VOTER.

The CA system has taken credit card info, magazine subscriber data, education levels, addresses, ages, all the past demographic and 'psychographic' data that was BETTER THAN NOTHING but is NOT BIG DATA. Its a LARGE database built on old-fashioned x-demographics. It is NOT INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE data. The voters have NOT BEEN CONTACTED. The Cambridge Analytica system MAKES A GUESS about the voter.

That system would guess that I listen to rock music, being a 56 year old white man. It would not guess that I listen to rap music. That system makes educated guesses and does it very well. But Romney's system was built on the SAME principle and the Obama system - of course - vastly outperformed it, because EACH VOTER WAS PERSONALLY CONTACTED to build those scores.

So yeah. Instead of doing what the Romney Autopsy said had to be done, Trump didn't. He instead was a cheapskate, instead of spending 100 million to go talk to the voters and find out who really will or won't vote for him (like those wives in Republican houses, who now secretly want to vote for Hillary) and instead Trump figured that he can get most of what everybody said he needed, simply by outsourcing it and buying the targeting model from Cambridge Analytica. YES, it will be better than nothing. But no, this is not anywhere near even an attempt to match what Hillary has.

Note - the Republican PARTY has its OWN system that is closer to what Hillary has. To see the story about CA and what it sold to Trump, note it has a video link, click also on the video link to see more. Here is the link to the story

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/trump-campaign-pays-millions-overseas-big-data-firm-n677321?cid=sm_tw

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
"So yeah. Instead of doing what the Romney Autopsy said had to be done, Trump didn't."

Trump is a terrible businessman. We already knew that. And it shows in each and every of his decisions.

Winter

A story about Clinton's efforts:
Meet the 21st-Century Political Alchemist Who’s Been Data-Mining for Hillary for the Past Two Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2015-04-15/meet-the-21st-century-political-alchemist-who-s-been-data-mining-for-hillary-for-the-past-two-years

Winter

More data mining:

Trump’s comeback plan includes building a ‘psychographic’ profile of every voter (from 30 October)
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/oct/30/trumps-comeback-plan-includes-building-a-psychogra/

And on voter intimidation, aka poll monitoring:

US election: Court deals Donald Trump setback in poll-monitor fight
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-04/us-court-deals-trump-setback-in-poll-monitor-fight/7995206

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

On the voter turnout. Trump has stepped back from the level of effort to deploy a ground game. At one point in early October Hillary had 4,000 paid staff total counting her HQ staff, the Democratic party staff, and the paid campaign staff in battleground states. Remember she has 130 paid staff just in Arizona alone, the furthest marginal state that she invested in last. She has between 200 and 300 campaign staff in most of the battleground states. And a big HQ support organization to help orchestrate the media and the campaign events with all their surrogates etc.

The TOTAL Republican effort at that time, Trump and GOP combined, was 800 paid staff of which Trump's side was 230. This is what that Politico survey of insiders was referring to. The Trump campaign is still NOW, a week before election day, HIRING staff (gosh, do they expect to be paid by Trump after he has lost, haha)

The Trump campaign has repeatedly said, that instead of a ground game in the states, they will rely on Trump rallies and Trump personal TV appearances (and now, increasingly also TV ads). First, on rallies - that is mathematically moronic. There is no way enough time to reach enough voters in person by rallies, to win an election. But its fun for Trump. What you DO with rallies, is excite the base, get your team 'fired up' and get volunteers to sign up, and to donate money, and to get voters registered. And to use the rally locally, to drive up local PRESS coverage to expand your message.

Trump doesn't do any of that with his rallies. He doesn't even do local media. He has moved to only do Fox News. Fox talks to a fraction of the voter population that Trump would need to attract. And he has locked the Fox viewer vote months ago. He should be expanding beyond it. But instead, the Trump team is blocking local newspapers from events and not doing local interviews with local TV stations and radio and so forth. Hillary and her surrogates OF COURSE do full local press all the time. But Trump hates all the other parts of the hard work of campaigning except when people love him - meaning rallies of only white racist people - chanting his name.

Now to voter enthusiasm. If you use traditional means, and a WIDE array of reaching voters, through a WIDE ARRAY of surrogates, if one has a bad day or you the campaign have bad moments, the SYSTEM will cover for you. The damage is not so bad. But if you have a good moment, the system can SUPPORT you, to expand and celebrate that message.

Now, look at Trump. He only lives on Fox. He has started to sound morose at times, downtrodden, he may lose, he isn't leading in all the polls, if he loses, it won't be such a bad thing. And his fans hear this. So where are the brainwashed collecting nightly? At Fox. And Fox has had a bunch of their analysts say, the race is going badly and Trump is behind and he will lose. And the Fox polling and the Fox battleground states map - they are brutally pointing out, he is far behind. SOME 'sane'-ish Trump voters ARE getting the message that this race is going badly.

And that means its DEPRESSING the Republican vote. We do not know how much or how little.

Contrast to the Democratic side. They are AFRAID of complacency. They are afraid that the battle is nearly won, and their side drops their weapons and goes home, and leave the victory hanging in the battlefield, ready to be stolen by Republicans. The Democrats are terrified only of one thing - a drop in turnout. A drop driven by a big victory. Democrats are lazy voters, they are far more prone to such big swings and if they think Hillary is coasting to a big victory, many will stay home on election day.

Now look at the SYSTEMS in place. Hillary's (Obama's) system was DESIGNED to solve this fault. They KNOW who has voted (who has been a nice Democrat) and they will TARGET those who haven't. And they have multiple ways to target each voter. The new 2016 version of Obama's system is so smart, it even knows WHICH COMMUNICATION METHOD you prefer to be contacted by, from the campaign. Are we surprised most voters want it via SMS? Yeah. You're welcome.

But yeah, Hillary's system EXPLICITLY can handle the turnout issue (while not obviously solving all of it, certainly mitigate for any losses in turnout, like right now, black voters). Trump has NO MACHINE to deal with this. His Cambridge Analytica system is designed to help target mass market advertising more precisely.

And now consider the two voter groups and the methods and the campaigns.

Trump voters who were previously promised Trump will win big, are being told the race is going badly. They hear this from Fox News and from Trump himself (implied, its no longer going greatly and that Hillary is trying to steal the election). Republican voters vote later, on election day. They are MORE vulnerable to a last-days-collapse of enthusiasm. Trump has no means to fix this problem - and he even has no system to measure its actual effect. Trump has stopped paying his POLLSTER owing him 750,000 dollars for completed previous polling work. Trump doesn't EVEN KNOW how bad his problem is. He will only detect any problems when they are reported in PUBLIC polling, weeks later than when the damage occurred. And Trump voters, explicitly, show last minute voter performance UNDERPERFORMING his polling (as in many but not all primary states)

Hillary voters who had seen stories of a tight race, and momentary glimpses of a big win, are again told by all media that its a tight race, and the race is GETTING TIGHTER. The Democratic voters start voting early and thus part of them are isolated from such effects, lessening the effects of a last minute emotional shift. Her team is pushing the narrative that this is a tight race, and you have to show up to vote. That every vote matters. Where Trump tells his voters, your vote doesn't matter and the game is rigged, this MESSAGE will get more voters to the polls, by how much or little, we can't know. And Hillary has the internal polling - of an enormous nightly polling sample of tens of thousands of people polled every day so she knows to a fraction of a percent, every single day, how did the race change today - and is there an emerging voter enthusiasm problem - and the well-coordinated campaign HQ sitting on this data, to drive the message to all the surrogates in the campaign. Then she has the TOOL to push GOTV effort on this issue. Target those voters who are safe to go vote NOW get them to 'bank their votes' and if its a hot issue now upsetting some voters (like the FBI letter) then let those voters cool off for a few days, don't agitate them now, then come back a few days later and say, see, it was nothing, now would you go and vote... Because each voter is individually known and contacted, the Hillary team can do this level of precision.

The Trump anti-Trump campaign, of how he often fights against himself, is a study of its own. This voter suppression OF HIS OWN SIDE will matter but it cannot be measured until after the election and will need its own studies. It is safe to say, there will be a 'Trump Book' by the GOP, of 'these are the deadly sins' of never do this again. Suppressing your own vote, that's a Trump trick. Don't do that if you intend to win an election.

I think there is also unknown psychology in play. A pollster asks you if you're likely to vote. How likely are you to vote. And based on that answer, they will then assign a score to your polling result, on whether your answers are counted in the 'Likely Voter' screen, versus the 'Registered Voter' polling result. Each pollster has their own exact methods of how to do this, its often more than one factor or one question that makes that final call. But its ONE way to consider that 'voter enthusiasm'.

BUT we've never in the modern era of polling, had a candidate who was telling his own voters, you are not going to matter, this election is being stolen from you and we will lose this election. And to see that result echoed in their own partisan media, that yeah, Trump is headed to a loss.

Note the semantic difference of 'this is a tight race that either side can win, and your vote is VERY important, please vote'. Like Michelle Obama was counting in one state, that Obama's margin of victory in the 2012 election in that state was literally 2 voters per polling place. Anyone in the audience that day, if they brought one friend, could have tilted that race for that polling district. This is totally the opposite PSYCHOLOGY.

And regardless of what the voter says in a poll, on a 'standard' question now, on November 8, they have to decide, do they bother to go and vote? Now, if you are a PARTISAN regular Republican, and you have OTHER issues to vote for - the Governor's race, the Senator you like, the local policy issue that is on the ballot, etc - then Trump stuff won't much matter. Republicans are loyal voters. You will show up, rain sleet or sunshine. BUT if you are a TRUMP cultist. Not a regular Republican but a Tea Partier or a Nazi/KKK or some other conspiracy nutter who loves Trump, and weren't really too bothered to even vote down-ticket for most Repbulicans, you just want your dude Trump to become President - YOU may be deeply impacted by the futility of voting for Trump if he's going to lose anyway.

Now consider the sub-optimization of the data systems. Trump's purchased data system drives his TV ad buys and online media ad buys. It doesn't know his voters personally even as it has all the voters technically targeted within it. About the only voters he has scored are the donors that he milks for more money.

The Republican party system is DESIGNED to help down-ticket candidate win, its not designed for the Presidential campaign. It is staffed by people many who hate Trump. The GOP has allowed its campaign processes to be separated from the Trump effort. Now it means there are many instances where the two are not optimized, and note, the Trump 'non traditional Republican' voter will NOT be eagerly engaged with - why would the loyal Republican want to try to attract the KKK members? And some of the GOP phone banking and house visit teams have actually made that split, where a HILLARY-voting moderate Republican or Independent is then attempted to be converted to become 'at least vote for the Republican Senator' to balance against Hillary over-reaches.

The Hillary team's machine is optimized and coordinated. They deliver the centralized message that once you are onboard with Hillary, you ALSO need a Democratic Senate and House (and local officials). The Republicans vs Trump are delivering (not consistently, but at times) a FRACTURING message to its OWN SIDE. Even if you don't like Trump, please vote for our other guys.

These will be voices of at the very least 'lost opportunities' for which there is an 'opportunity cost' of all the effort made (when you're vastly behind in all resources) that isn't yielding a common good; in the worst case, it suppresses your OWN SIDE.

I'm a trained marketing man, very very good at it. I've done it for 30 years. Every bone in my body says, the Trump campaign is DAMAGING its own support. It is also hurting the GOP (and vice versa) while the Democrats and Hillary are simultaneously playing it perfectly correctly. It CANNOT be 'not relevant'. Every bone in my body says, this will damage Trump MORE than what is measured now. On November 8, some voters on the Republican side WILL stay home. And where Democrats are prone to that problem more than Republicans, this year in particular, they are most immune to it, partly thanks to a pretend-tightening of the race, and partly because their system is designed to try to stop this from happening.

So look for example at Melania Trump's speech. A nice speech, written for her by professional speech-writers that she delivered well. And in the abstract, that would be a very good First Lady prospect's speech late in the race. A nice pretty elegant stylish First Lady candidate, with nice words for her husband and very uplifting goals to help heal the nation.

Except she talked of ending bullying? WHAT MORON WROTE THAT SPEECH? That BRINGS UP the whole bullying aspect of Trump AGAIN into the forefront. Its bullying at every level from the Khans to Judge Curiel to John McCain to Miss Universe to grabbing by the p*ssy to threatening anyone. Does she KNOW who her husband is? Cyberbullying? Has she ever read Trump's Tweets? The speech was written by a Republican speech-writer. But there was no sane Campaign Manager to overrule this speech and take out the bullying part. Thats just nuts to return to one of the most hated parts about Trump, literally 5 days before election day. She could have delivered a GAIN to the campaign, delivering the IDENTICAL same speech, with the bullying parts taken out. Say she wants to help kids learn, or whatever other bullshit the writers wanted. But to end bullying? Her husband is America's most notorious bully!

For Melania Trump to suggest she wants to end bullying is as if Tiger Wood's wife campaigned to end the game of professional golf. Its as if Beyonce's husband campaigned to put an end to the music industry. This is so utterly bizarre, but so is the whole Trump experience. Everything about Trump is consistent with a plan to destroy the Trump campaign.

Note that in my model I have not tried to calculate the effect of a Republican voter turnout suppression effort. I have proceeded always with the assumption that the final GOTV effort imbalance benefits Hillary but the Republican turnout is still 'normal' not down. If Republican turnout is down, even 5% thats another 2.5% change in the margin of victory added as a bonus for Hillary and the Democrats.

And what if some don't vote for down-ticket Republicans, as Trump encouraged them to do up to a month ago? Many who made up their minds about Trump, had gotten that message, and Trump never admits mistakes, he is not out on the trail saying - hey remember when I said you should not vote for the down-ticket horrible Republicans? I was wrong and this is why you SHOULD vote for the crooked Washington insiders - from our own side. So SOME of the most loyal Trumpsters, will likely NOT vote for ANY down-ticket Republicans. We don't know what proportion that is of total vote, but we will probably see that in the exit vote on November 8. There will be some slice of the voters that does that, and if this goes into high single digits for the GOP, it will be catastrophic for down-ticket Republicans.

We DO know that Trump bleeds Republican registered voter support away from himself, including not just voting for Hillary, but voting for the other third party candidates as well - and many Republicans will write in a candidate like Mitt Romney or John McCain or someone else. That will suppress Trump's vote - BUT THIS WE HAVE FACTORED IN. That is CAPTURED in the polling. Question is, how much of this effort will then ALSO hurt the other way? Hurting down-ballot Republicans. But against this, the GOP is attempting to get ticket-splitters out of some Hillary voters. We will see in the exit poll if this became an issue or not. But Trump's behavior has created this possibility.

Its possible that something like 3% or 5% of total Trump voters will not vote for ANY down-ticket Republicans (gosh, if they really hate Washington, it could be even higher).

This is an unknown that will only matter to down-ticket Republican races (and their Democrat rivals, possibly helping their chances somewhat)

Because Trump is undisciplined, and says whatever pops into his mind, and he KNOW these things are happening, and he will not be lectured on what he should be saying - he is damaging his own run by this kind of campaigning. And obviously he is also damaging the GOP's chances.

The exciting vote count on Nov 8 will be the House and Senate races. We may see a few surprises in the Senate, supposedly safe Republicans who will be ousted. And the House will be so close, its likely not called by dawn. That several House races are so tight, they will end up deciding the control of the House and those vote counts will continue long into November 9, when last provisional ballots are counted, and some losers will insist on recounts, and so forth. We may not know who won the House until December...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Oh gosh yes. I meant to write about that several times. The Trump election-watching vigilantes.

First. Its a CRIME to intimidate voters. Trump is encouraging vigilantism.

Secondly, his campaign has been sued in (at least) four states now about voter intimidation and has been told at least in one state already by a judge to cool it.

Third, this is damaging the GOP. The GOP tried this tactic (proposed by one of Trump's supporters back then, I forget which one it is, one of the lesser-know names of the dubious types that hang around his campaign) in New Jersey several election cycles ago, and the Republican PARTY was found guilty of voter intimidation and the PARTY agreed to not do it, and is UNDER WATCH by the courts.

So the period for which they must be monitored would end in 2017 if they have behaved nice until then and not done voter intimdiation. Now Trump is threatening to mess that up. The GOP attorneys were in panic trying to convince the judges that no, no, no the GOP has nothing to do with this. They don't want that 2017 date to be extended.

So the GOP has tried this before - strictly illegal - and been punished for it. Now Trump has gotten hold of those sneaky conspiracy nutters to try it again.

Ok. What does this do to TRUMP SUPPORTERS?

It AT LEAST takes their focus away from volunteering 'properly' to help Trump and the Republicans win. It further gives them a mission - that will now be defeated, because in several states the local police and FBI are sending in more resources to make sure there is no vigilantism - several REPUBLICAN attorneys general have said they will up their election site security and will not allow voter intimddation squads.

So it can be an excercize in futility. If they do run this. BUT its likely Trump is ordered not to do this and this effort - a rare volunteer sign-up effort - that Trump often talks about in his rallies too (wasting valuable talking time) - will now be simply cancelled. Trump can whine about how it was a rigged system against him.

But note - this IS a rare campaign-driven and consistent effort to build a volunteer group for Trump. Get your guns and baseball bats, lets go 'guard' some inner-city voting places so the brown people won't come out and vote. These are NOT legal volunteers to do house-visits and man telephone banks and learn to use the voter contact tools on their smartphones. These are white racist nutters out with their military rifles on the shooting range wearing camouflage pants and a Make America Great Again hat.

For the modest resources they have, and the modest volunteer outreach they have, and the modest field offices they have, and the total amount of campaign TALKING and email contact effort - the Trump campaign has wasted an inordinate amount of it in his vigilante army that is .. illegal. And it won't come and ride their motorbikes from Montana to stop the vote in Philadelphia that will decide Pennsylvania for Hillary. The Judge in Pennsylvania said very clearly - even local monitoring STATE OFFICIALS are not allowed to go into OTHER PRECINCTS to 'monitor' elections. They must stay inside the voting district where they are registered.

So yeah. Once again, even when Trump stumbles accidentially upon a sane thing to do - recruit volunteers - he then uses that method in so inappropriate way - to not help his campaign at all - but now - it DEPLETES resources that COULD HAVE been used for legitimate volunteer work!

Thanks Winter. I had meant to write about this many times, it just escaped me, because its so nutty, I can't 'remember' to think 'what else idiotic is he doing' haha.

Imagine you are a General in a war. Lets say its late World War 2, its Europe, you are Patton or Montgommery, on the Western Allies side. You are now facing fierce German efforts and you go recruit more troops. You get a volunteer group out of freshly-liberated Netherlands, who get 100,000 volunteers, 10 Divisions, very nice. So you train them to use poison gas. You get them all the equipment for poison gas attacks and how to use those effectively, you train them, and then find out - wait, we are not allowed to poison-gas our opponents anymore. Nevermind. Why don't you just sit this battle out, while we die on the frontline....

Its YET ANOTHER WAY that the Trump campaign is self-destructing. Its exactly like Stephen Elop was at Nokia. Just when you thought he had extinguished all possible ways to damage YOUR OWN SIDE, Trump discovers yet another way.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

On the data system wars. Please understand, Trump is doing the same METHOD of Romney. A psychographic profile, and assigning it to voters, based on their behavior like which magazines they subscribe or where they live or how old they are or what their credit card score is. Its the OLD-FASHIONED WAY. Romney lost using this method.

Hillary uses BIG DATA, it is not because the data is big. Its not because each voter is scored. It is BIG DATA because EACH voter (or consumer or citizen or patient) is INDIVIDUALLY contacted and scored. The Trump team guesses what our preference is. The Hillary team ASKS every voter INDIVIDUALLY. That is BIG DATA. Its not about the size. Its about the METHOD.

We TESTED these against each other, in the first-ever case study against the two methods going head to head. I wrote about it in 2015. Here is the blog

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/05/it-was-the-best-of-data-it-was-the-worst-of-data-mobile-marketing-use-of-big-data-analysis-using-cas.html

Trump is repeating the Romney way. Hillary is repeating the Obama way. Both have improved their methods. But Obama's way outperformed Romney's way by 4.5 to 1. Not 4.5%. Not 45% - by 350% !!!! It is 4.5 times better! Please do not be misled by Cambridge Analytica wanting to call their solution 'big data' it is not. Its BIG yes, it is a database yes. Its PREDICTIVE data, it is a GUESS. Hillary's team is KNOWLEDGE. They sent humans to go and INDIVIDUALLY SPEAK to every voter (or sent email or Facebook or phone call contact).

The psychographic system like Cambridge Analytica looks at me as a 56 year old Finnish affluent tech guy - and concludes I buy expensive blue jeans - because ALL Finnish men wear jeans and the richer ones buy good premium blue jeans. I don't. I don't own one pair of jeans. They are MAKING A GUESS. Its an educated guess. Its better than nothing, but the QUANTUM LEAP that changed data wars, was BIG DATA. Talking PERSONALLY to every customer or voter or student or citizen or patient. It is what Obama built in 2012. Their PREVIOUS system from 2008, that was still using psychographics. Trump is 8 years behind with his tech. While doing that tech no doubt, very well.

Re-read my blog. I explain this all

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/05/it-was-the-best-of-data-it-was-the-worst-of-data-mobile-marketing-use-of-big-data-analysis-using-cas.html

This is like the introduciton of the rifle to the battlefield. No matter how good you are with bows-and-arrows - you will LOSE EVER WAR on that tech, if the other side has rifles.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Tomi:

The U.S. tv "news" organizations are not. Their purpose is solely profit. They don't investigate; they regurgitate. Note how often they only report what they read at the NYT and WaPo. (Or, in the case of Disney/ABC, what they find on youtube).

Since Monday, Trump's PBS Trump Newshour has been *promoting* Trump. I can understand ABC, CBS, and NBC pushing whatever brings in more eyeballs to sell to advertisers, but what the hell is PBS doing? Is the Koch machine at work in the background or is it just a desperate ratings game?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

I wrote about the data wars, nothing really detailed, just making the point that having a large data system is not 'Big Data' and what Trump has is utterly outclassed by Hillary.

I will do again a full analysis of the GOTV effort and the data wars, perhaps more than one blog, as we get details right after the election

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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