Ok My Final-Final Call. 12 Point Landslide for Hillary on Tuesday and Texas Goes Blue

Updated on election night: I was totally wrong. I am leaving the text here but overstriking it. I won't hide from the fact I made this forecast but I was clearly totally wrong.

 

I didn't want to do one more forecast. I had hoped that my last one from 3 weeks ago could stand. But... we had a 'semi' October surprise out of the FBI letter, that I yelled and screamed about that its a total nothingburger - and it was nothing. It was a letter about ANTHONY WIENER'S emails, not Hillary Clinton emails, and yet, idiot American media obsessed about those emails the last week and what happened? The attention on Trump's women and Russia connections and all other problems was swept aside.

That said. I still think it will be a double-digit election landslide. I think the numbers 'can' support this view but I recognize that as of 11PM (23:00 hours) East Coast time on Monday night, the average of the 11 last polls out either Sunday or Monday, say its a 4% race. Fair enough. Those 11 polls however, they have a huge amount of undecided voters still - 5.6% - and those have to be allocated.

So this is how I thought it through. The MEASUREMENT of the race today. Because of the FBI Director's silly letter, the race stabilized around 4% in the 4-way race and ended around there, in the polling (3.5% as the mathematical average of the 11 pollsters). I first eliminate the 3 pollsters who have an atrocious record of being pure propaganda pollsters and consistently showing silly results against what others find (Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and Gravis). I kept Bloomberg while it also had a Republican bias, as they didn't issue ridiculous polls systematically. Of the remaining 8 polls, I took the average result, and then took the undecided count (5.4% as measured of these 8 pollsters). I allocated that 5.4% by a mix of the two 'Non-Trump' models I talked about earlier today - one is based on an even split 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 between Hillary, Johnson and Stein. This assumes many also hate Hillary so the two will vastly outperform their proportion. And the other method takes strict mathematical proportion of these 3 remaining choices (which greatly favors Hillary). I think its also likely that Hillary will get more than just a third of these last votes because of her powerful GOTV effort that the two others don't have.

But after the undecided vote is allocated, I come exactly between a race of 7% or 8% ie exactly 7.5%. And then I need to allocated the actual election-day performance gain to Hillary that I said before, would be worth 4%. That takes us to 11.5%. The last rounding off that I imagine comes from 'hidden Hillary-voting married Republicans' who would not dare admit to anyone they'll actually vote for Hillary. There is a gender gap already among Republicans favoring Hillary but I think it will be modestly bigger. That gives us the gap between Hillary and Trump when all votes are counted, around Friday of this week - to be 12%. Then the remaining votes I allocate to Johnson 6%, Stein 3% and others including McMullin 1%.

So I predict Tuesday election result will be:

Hillary 51%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%
Others 1%

This is less than my previous forecast that said 16% but the ending of the race did take off some of that top end. I yes, say Hillary will win by 12% tomorrow. I predict her victory is called at 11:01PM EST when California vote comes in. And of how far she goes, I predict she wins Texas, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina plus all states that Obama won in 2012. That means she also wins Ohio and Iowa where she is currently behind in in-state polling.

I further predict Hillary wins the one vote out of Nebraska, and McMullin wins Utah, so the EV vote will be 413 for Hillary, 119 for Trump and 6 EV votes for McMullin. Here is the map via Real Clear Politics of what I think tomorrow's election result will look like:




I'll say Senate goes 51/49 Democrat. Democrats hold Nevada, pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Florida Rubio seat will be far less than 1% and could go either way. I say he just holds his seat. House stays red but Democrats pick up 19 seats.

We will see tomorrow how this - quite wild - forecast turns out. I am convinced Hillary will outperform her polling and that these polls we have, do not quite adequately measure how far she is ahead. 12% election result. Double-digit enormous landslide. Trump kept to under 40% and Texas goes blue (Texas will be counted into the morning hours and it will be decided by less than 1%)

Comments

[grouch]

C'mon, Tomi. Shove those numbers around some more and try to rescue me from RED. You have no heart.

[grouch]

Tomi:

Would this be filed under "Trump: Political Genius"?

A commenter on disqus describes being invited by the Trump campaign to do phone banking, after telling them "about a dozen times" to put him on the do-not-call list. He then gets two account verification emails and waits (4 and 7 hours, respectively) for account approval emails.

"How did they actually think that contacting people Sunday evening and/or Monday morning, with a system that requires two stages of processing, would provide them with an army of phone volunteers that would be able to call people before the election was over? Exactly the level of dumpsterfire you would expect from the god of dumpsterfires."

Now THAT is a GOTV machine to be reckoned with!

[Millard Filmore]

The first result is in!

"Source: CNN

8 total votes

4 Hillary
2 Trump
1 Johnson
1 Romney

Hassan-Ayotte 4-4"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141619415

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi grouch

Yeah, great example. There is also the anecdotal evidence of some poll watching volunteer who begged for info for weeks, finally was told 6 hours before he had to be - IN ANOTHER CITY - to go get his badge and materials and get to a polling place. Yeah. Brilliantly organized, just like everything with Trump haha..

They are trying to do something but as we've seen, the main thing Trump wants at every stage, is him on every stage. Like now, haha, in Michigan. Or how Trump got off script when someone handed him a Halloween mask of himself. There was some event a few days ago where the front-row Trump supporters were muttering 'Stay on message, stay on message' knowing, anytime Trump gets off-message, there is less chance to convince any possible undecided voters haha...

But 40% is the magic number. After we factor in the Hillary GOTV effort, can Trump hit 40%. I think he'll stay under it and hence, 12% election. The 51% vs 39% split is by the way what the Wall Street Journal found in its survey of people who had already voted nationwide. Now, early vote favors Democrats and Republicans show up on election day, so under any normal year, that would be mad to say, that if the early vote was 51/39, for Hillary to finish with that number - but now its again the GOTV machine, they can focus on an ever shrinking target and get them to the polls, while on the other hand, many Republican voters are going to be pretty downcast that all polls say he's lost it, when last time Romney was essentially tied (and lost it by 5).

(haha Trump is just holding his last rally of the election in Grand Rapids Michigan, I have it on BBC but turned the sound off, I'm so sick and tired of hearing his voice. I can't wait to never hear him drone on and on about his idiotic ideas again)

Oh, what will I do after tomorrow. Life will never again be this exciting. Maybe I'll go back to watching some movies on DVD or TV series.. hey, I used to do that before Trump came along. What was that one secret-agent guy, Jimmy Bond, something?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Millard

Yeah its those two villages that vote early somwhere up in the NorthEast, was it New Hampshire or Maine or Vermont. And its gonna be... a Hillary landslide!!!

Haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/kurt-eichenwalds-huge-list-of-trump-failures-destroys-gop-nominees-self-proclaimed-business-prowess/

Bonus at the end of that is David Fahrenthold's list of personal charitable contributions by Trump.

[grouch]

Dammit. I keep leaving the 'h' out of Fahrenthold's name.

[Olivier Barthelemy]

What worries me is that in elections with mavericks, especially the douchy kind, polls usually understate the maverick's results by quite a bit.
Hopefully you're right.

[cornelius]

I admit I am a coward. But being a coward has its advantages, like for example being able to post a totally boring (and gutless) forecast. This is what I wrote on October 18th (three weeks ago):
"So my forecast at the moment is 7% victory for Clinton. Trump will win Ohio, Arizona and Iowa. Clinton will win North Carolina, Nevada and Florida. Clinton will get 322 electoral votes. The Democratic Party will get the majority in Senate."
Then last week, after Comey endorsed Trump, I downgraded my forecast to 5%. Now I believe it will be between 5% and 6%. So here are my final numbers:
Clinton: 48
Trump: 42
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2
Others: 1
I'll post it on twitter under @fugazidrumpf

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Olivier

I worry (a lot) about that too. But gosh, however many times I go back to the math - the women will vote more for Hillary than they voted in Obama vs Romney. There is no way Trump matches Romney. No way. Then blacks and Hispanics will vote more for Hillary than for Trump. Again, no way it goes against that. I can't see math that has this a tight race haha.. The magic number is 40. If Trump is held to 40 (or below) its a double-digit landslide blowout, and 12% is just about Texas.. But gosh, yeah, sometimes those lunatics get in (like haha Gov LePage in Maine)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

Sorry, I left off the name of the town: Dixville Notch, NH

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hey cornelius

What was that coward bit? It didn't make any sense to me...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

hi grouch

No, I think you spelled Fhahrentholdh right... cheers.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

Hi Tomi,
Well, just saying that i don't have the balls to go big, do bold predictions. Kind of like self-sarcasm. My sense of humor is a bit weird sometimes, especially when I am very excited (hint: tomorrow) :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

So Politico runs the story about early voting. And what do they find. A surprisingly strong Hispanic surge and a strong women's vote surge. Women's vote in early voting at about 55/45 levels. I estimated it at 54/46 for my model (for 2 points of the total gains above the polling). The Hispanic surge means Florida will go to Hillary, Nevada and Colorado won't be close and she'll steal Arizona too. Question is really only about Texas, that'll be counted late.

The women's vote, that goes nationally and if she gets to 55/45 instead of 54/46 gosh thats a 4 point cushion.. Obviously early vote is not the total vote and Democratic-leaning voters like to (or are driven to) vote earlier than Republicans but still. Thats a solid sign for a big surprise brewing for the vote count Tuesday night

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[cornelius]

@Tomi
I suppose this is the link?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-trump-early-voting-230916

[cornelius]

OK, time to review the positive effects of this election:
1. Trump destroyed his brand and spent many millions on this election (he recouped some of the money but I believe he still spent more than he recouped). Hopefully he got himself closer to bankruptcy.
2. Trump totally destroyed the GOP (it will take many more years for GOP to come back)
3. Trump helped elect a sane president that will continue Obama's legacy.
4. This election helped reveal some major issues from Trump's past and got him into a few lawsuits and an FBI investigation (his foundation, a rape, Trump's so called University, etc.)
5. Trump wasted his time and his energy on a complete failure of a campaign. He is tired and frustrated and angry which is great.
6. Trump remains in history as the typical sore loser moron clown piece of shit.
Did I forget anything?
If Melania is a smart woman, she should divorce him and squeeze a few millions from Trump before it is too late.

[Paul]

My prediction is:

Hillary 53%
Trump 38%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
Others 1%

[Ievshenko]

My fear is that the voter suppression that took place in North Carolina for the African American vote will not be made up today. But hey, in theory, all of the people who couldn't find time to vote early because of the reduced polling locations can now vote today.

Here's an important point: In Florida especially, but also in North Carolina, Clinton's team focused specifically on low propensity voters. They wisely predicted that since their normal voters would just show up on Election Day, they should get the unlikely voters who need a bit of pushing to vote early. Essentially, they used early voting to add new voters instead of just shifting when their likely voters vote.

[steve]

Ted Nugent vs Springsteen......

sheeeeeeeeeesh.....