I'm writing this at 01:00 AM East Coast time on the early morning of Wednesday 9 November. Trump has not yet been called the winner but he's ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona, its pretty clear he will win the election.
So first, congratulations to the supporters of Trump including all who visited my blog and who left comments. Secondly, I was totally wrong with my long-term forecasts that Hillary was going to win, and my actual 2016 election forecasts about Trump that he could not win. I was also totally wrong about my interpretation of the polling results where I thought the polls showed too weak a result for Hillary and she'd outperform the polling.
It is now clear that there was no women's vote surge (it actually seems from exit polling data that female voter turnout was DOWN compared to previous elections). It is also clear that the Get-Out-The-Vote effort by the Democrats was not relevant in this election and apparently their 'big data' based voter targeting system also did not deliver this election.
I hereby end my commentary of the US elections (for this cycle). I don't think there is any reason to bother to dig into that GOTV effort or its data systems either, but I may do some follow-up on that, perhaps. A possible reason is that the Republicans have enough of a counter to the Democrats' advantage from 2012 and there is rough parity in the data wars and the ground game. I may return to that topic but the other election coverage on this blog will now end.
I am sorry that my forecast(s) did not turn out. I was totally wrong. Wrong to a huge degree. I was far more wrong than most pollsters and other forecasters. With that, this is my blog so you have to accept this blog entry, I won't be having comments to this entry.
We will return to technology-related topics and there should be some smartphone market share data coming shortly, once I sleep past this election nightmare. But yeah, congrats to all Trump supporters. You were correct. It must feel extra sweet, because everbody - including me - was telling you he could not win. The Trump Train did in the end, achieve a victory. His fans, they have truly delivered for Donald Trump.
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