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November 04, 2016



The Republican Orca system had a meltdown on election day. Did tbe Republicans do test runs?

An untested IT system will invariably fail.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Yeah we knew that, we reported on it at the time. The Orca System was delivered so late, they had no training on it, it wasn't tested and it had its first full run on election day. It crashed many times and in the state of North Carolina the system could not be put into use at all.

Meanwhile Obama's Narwhal system, far larger, was fully deployed, fully tested - all staff were fully TRAINED on it, and knew how to use it. Oh, the Romney Orca system had even problems getting users on it, as the user manuals were supplied on the Monday-Tuesday night to users haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Yes indeed. But did they learn? Did they do full scale "dress rehearsels"? That is expensive and time consuming.

An untested IT system does not work.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

So for this year, Trump does NOT have a field organization to use such a system at all. The Cambridge Analytica system is used to target their TV ad and online ad effort. Trump does not have any level of required volunteers to take advantage of a data system on election day even if they had built one. And they didn't.

Now the GOP, that is the mystery. They DO have a GOTV effort and its an evolution of Romney in 2012. Part of that is THEIR data system which we do not know much about, but which sounds a lot like Cambridge Analytica's system (which sounds like Ted Cruz's system too). They also talk about those 100 point scores on two axis (copying what I reported here on this blog about the Obama system of 2012, early on; while later we found out the Obama system actually had five, not 2 scales each of 100 points).

The key difference is, that we do know that the GOP is contacting voters, knocking on doors, telephoning them etc. Are they doing it in line with a demographics-based model like the Cambridge Analytica model - ie layering some data on top of the CA model, or are they actually buiding a Big Data system, at least perhaps partially, and contacting not just some friendly voters but deliberately all voters.

Then the internal polling. The Hillary team runs a massive survey daily to know to the n'th degree the precise race every day. Why would the GOP do this on the national race? It doesn't make sense for them to pay for that which would ONLY benefit Trump - and not have Trump pay for it. If they do ANY polling, it will be only local polling for local races - like its highly likely they ARE doing that in Wisconsin because most of the top brass of the GOP are from that state and seem to be devoting a lot of their resources in getting re-elected. But national polling? So if you HAVE some degree of a data system of many/most voters - but then don't know how their opinions are shifting daily, then it runs the danger of being static and obsolete by election day. But there is no reporting of any major polling expenditure of the GOP. There IS big expenditure every month from Hillary on polling.

It may be that the GOP has a kind of 'hybrid' or 'semi Big Data' system built on top of Cambridge Analytica, that they populate partly with voter data. If you are deeply resource-deprived, then there is not much sense in bothering to go ask known Democrats about might they like Trump. It makes sense first to try to find all of your own flock. So if the Republicans have a partially filled data system of their own voters (in battleground states) then it likely has mostly registered Republicans who have been contacted, and after they are reached, start to contact Independents.

Now. WHY would you do this? Its primary purpose is to drive election day turnout. Lets take military analogy here. If you have a radar that sees 20 kilometers out, but your guns only can shoot 10 km distance, there is not much sense in trying to increase your radar range to 50 km. If the GOP is in short supply of volunteers to do any election-day phone banking and door-knocking and driving people to the voting places then who cares if they can target all voters? But the Democrats gosh, I saw the Hillary team talking about having over 2 million volunteers (may be they meant people who have donated money) but still, they have the resources on election day to take advantage of such detail and precision and to use that kind of information.

Of the Hillary machine, we have at least the basic level of where they were before the upgrades and its pretty awesome performance.

On Trump, we know its an outsourced data mining operation that uses profiling on various voter data. Its not a Big Data system but it could be used for rudimentary targeting. Its best use is in stuff not so precise, like TV ads.

Of the GOP machine, that is the best mystery in this set. I don't see the scale of their effort to build a full Big Data system and have its data also populated and updated but it could be a partial system, kind of hybrid - and if so it will be BETTER than what Romney had in 2012, and better than what Trump has now. If so, then the DOWN-TICKET races will be far more competitive than the Presidential race (as also many polls seem to suggest).

Back to dress rehearsals. Hillary obviously has, and their team is tested. They've trained all users, they've run full mock-elections etc. Last time there was a story about them testing if the whole HQ data center went down, how could they run Election Day without any input from HQ etc...

But the GOP? I'm imagining its always a local effort. So it is likely to be strong in states where the GOP has a strong organization like Wisconsin or Ohio. And it may be a big mess in states that have had internal strife and turnover with fired staff etc like say North Carolina. But you're correct, the system should be fully deployed and tested and trained before Election Day. The earlier the full data system project was completed, the more time there is to do bug-fixes and testing. The more money you have, and the more complete the starting point was, the more you can focus on these. The GOP however, is underfunded, running their project in parallel with the Trump campaign and starting from near-scratch because it was supposed to be that the candidate would cover this part of the election. So at least to some degree, this is a rush-job, emergency job, done under considerable stress.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@crazy-person: "Why is there no mention on your blog about Hillary's voter fraud?"

After 30 years of probing, hundreds of millions of dollars put into the effort, investigations up the wazoo by prosecutors, special prosecutors, congressional committees, special committees, subpoenas that can scoop up stuff that only the feds can reach ... and what is the result?

Nothing. No convictions, no indictments. The only thing pinned on Hillary is bad optics.

But you are in luck buddy. The Republicans in congress have promised to lock up her presidency in useless witch-hunts until the end of time. No judicial appointments at any level, block any laws (if Hillary is for it, they are against it), do you know if they can block her cabinet selections as well? That should really help Russia to grab bits of Europe back into the empire.

But hey, go with your conscience and vote the Trump-Putin ticket. GOP ... from the party of Lincoln to the party of treason in only 160 years.

Millard Filmore

@crazy-person: one more thought, copied from a comment on

"A Grumpy Cat

THIS. All of this. It’s like Penn said on an episode of BS – they couldn’t cover up fucking Watergate, FFS. But Hillz is running a criminal enterprise the size of fucking Canada, while leaving no evidence??"

If she is THAT good, maybe you should vote for her.



Re: The shocking incompetence of the U.S. press...

The real Clinton email scandal is that a bullshit story has dominated the campaign

In total, network newscasts have, remarkably, dedicated more airtime to coverage of Clinton’s emails than to all policy issues combined.

This is unfortunate because emailgate, like so many Clinton pseudo-scandals before it, is bullshit.

Brent Logan


How dependent is Hillary's system on the internet? Could a massive DDoS attack negate her advantage?

It seems to me (and I'm just guessing here), that her system relies on communication that could be crippled.

Maybe I'm just paranoid. ;-)

Wayne Borean

LOL. The trolls have come out of the woodwork! That's often a sign that you are hitting too close to home for them to feel comfortable.

I did cold calls on Fortune 500 companies. Our firm ran a database of companies, their staff, including who was directly responsible for projects, and who made the cash decisions. I used that database to decide who to target, how big the market was for products, etc. It also covered a wide range of other things that were specific to our business.

Was it as good as Orca? No. But it helped. A lot.

It started out much like the Psychographic style of database, which we then tweaked based on contacts with potential customers. It morphed to something part way between Psychographics and Big Data. We didn't do test runs, for our purposes that wasn't necessary because often projects took four to five years to come to completion, and our customers would make decisions two to three years before 'Election Night' because of design times (we were much more like Qualcomm than Nokia).

You did not contact a customer who was using Gasoline engines with Diesel engine products. You mentioned the Diesel products in case that customer decided to introduce a Diesel line, but you went in depth on Gasoline with that customer and vice versa.

I have to admit I'd really love to see the Obama/Clinton big data system. I also at one time worked as a programmer and did some database design work myself, so I have an interest in the system from two sides of my work experience, though I'll happily admit that I was a far better sales and marketing person than I am a programmer.

Millard Filmore

Huge voter turnout in Nevada.
The early polls will be open as long as there is a line.

@RalstonReports 33m33 minutes ago
50,000 threshold officially crossed at 8pm in Clark County.
50,106 and counting.
What a spectacle.

Isceald Glede

Not sure about arrows, but spears have defeated rifles:

There are plenty of requirements: Home ground advantage, 10:1 numerical advantage, first rate strategy against a commander not following basic defense and reconnaissance procedures and suicidal bravery. While you are at it, throw in enemy office politics, perfect weather and an eclipse.

The rifles were supposed to be lined up and spaced so that a man fixing a jammed rifle can be protected by his neighbors. The rifles were set up on a curve. Zulus stood up and got shot at until a Brits were surrounded by smoke from their rifles. The Brits regularly took a few steps forward to get ahead of the smoke. Because of the curved lines, the perimeter increased to the point where a soldier with a jammed riffle was not sufficiently protected. A Zulu could sprint in and spear a Brit before getting shot. This left two riflemen sufficiently isolated to be targets when their rifles jammed.

Battle ground states are either purple or red, so Trump has partial home ground advantage. His staff and volunteers are more outnumbered than Siilasvuo. Trump has demonstrated extreme self destructive reactions to diversions instead of following even his own loser strategy while Hillary has run perfect defense with plenty of reconnaissance. There are some Trump supporters with suicidal bravery, but they are not deployed to advantage. Clearly Trump lacks the preconditions to win a spears vs rifles battle.

Wayne Borean

Here's something a bit lighter, about a Republican father's advice to his son on which girl to marry. I know the chap who wrote this, he is a fantastic song writer, and will happily take orders for songs. A different sort of business model!

Jenny be fair, and Jenny be fine, and wants me for to wed,
And I would marry Jenny, but my father up and said,
"I hate to tell you something, son, you maybe never knew,
But Jenny's voted Democrat since Nineteen-Eighty-Two."

Well, Julie be fair, and Julie be fine, and wants me for to wed,
And I would marry Julie, but my father up and said,
"Now listen, boy, a girl's a toy for cold and lonely nights,
And Julie's worked the last decade for womens' equal rights."

Well, Mary is fair, and Mary is fine, and wants to marry me,
But Father said, "You're out of your head, she's not the girl for thee,
She works in an abortion clinic, lives with pain and strife,
And might get blown to smithereens one night by Right to Life."

Well, Rachel is cute, and thinks of me as husband-on-the-hoof,
But when my father heard of it, he up and hit the roof:
"How can you think to marry her? My God, the girl's a Jew!"
I didn't mention Stephanie, who's pagan through and through.

Fine! Gail is cute, and Gail is tough, and wants to be my pal.
But Dad said, "Marry her if you must, but don't befriend a gal!"
I tried to tell him Gail does not want to marry me,
But Gail told him better than I -- best two falls out of three.

Well, every time a woman seems to be the one for me,
My father blows it all to Hell with his philosophy,
But I prefer my lady friends, and they have much more class,
So I'll have an affair with whomever I care, and Dad can kiss my ass.


Latino Early Vote Surges From Florida to Nevada
Quote from the article:
"Latino early voting is up 100 percent in Florida, 60 percent in North Carolina and up 25 percent in Colorado and Nevada."
Clinton is getting 79% vs. 18 for Trump (while Romney got 27% vs. 71% for Obama).
And now check this table:
This means that the Hispanic vote is going to make triple history. Not only this is the largest Latino turnout, but this is the lowest number for any presidential candidate in recent history and the highest deficit in recent history. The previous records belonged to Bob Dole at 21% Latino votes and he also hold the record for the highest deficit at 51%. To say that Trump will get bob-doled is a yuge understatement.
I think Florida is definitely going Clinton's way. And without Florida Trump is done.

Wayne Borean

Win or Lose, Trump Has Destroyed the Conservative Movement and Revealed Its Racist Base

Wayne Borean

Tomi says the Republicans have to grow up. I'm of the opinion that they are structurally unable to, and this is one of the reasons.

Why the Right-Wing Media's Vise Grip on the GOP Is Only Going to Get Tighter

Wayne Borean

And here is another reason the Republicans can't grow up.

Dave Daubenmire: Hillary Clinton Smells Like Rotten Meat Because She Is Demon-Possessed

Wayne Borean

And another reason the Republicans can't grow up.

Oath Keepers Prepare For Post-Election False Flags, Black Lives Matter IED Attacks

Wayne Borean

And a fourth reason.

Anti-Choice Movement Placing Its Hopes In 2016 Election

Wayne Borean

The Republicans have problems, the biggest of which is the Demographic Time Bomb.

But they also have a huge issue in that parts of their current coalition will resist change to the death. I have no figures on exactly what percentage of each of the above is part of that coalition, but we already know from data posted here by Tomi and others that the Republicans have a built in limit, a steel roof, which like Trump they cannot rise above.

I am dead tired, and can't remember the exact numbers, but let's say that:

Democrats - 35%
Republicans - 30%
Independents - 25%

The groups mentioned above each make up a small but significant portion. Assume:

Republicans minus Racists - 30-1=29%
Republicans minus Religious Right - 29-1=28%
Republicans minus Oath Keepers - 28-1=27%
Republicans minus Fox News Viewers - 27-1=26%

As I said, I have no idea the exact numbers, and there is overlap between the groups, but that covers the basics. I personally feel that the Religious Right may make up 1/2 of the Republican Party, which could make sanity on Same-Sex Marriage and Abortion impossible.


It Sure Looks Like FBI Renegades Are Trying To Swing The Presidential Election
One of the most unsettling developments yet in a campaign filled with them.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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