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« Election Scorecard 3: As of Oct 3, 2016 with just over 1 month to go to election day: All the numbers, all the analysis, all the grading | Main | Measuring the Bounce from the First Debate: Super-Targeting Campaign: Nationally Hillary took 2.2% gain but in Battleground 'Swing' States her bounce was twice that: 3.9%. Oh, and Trump lost more than Hillary Gained »

October 04, 2016



I am convinced by your argument. I could see Trump derailing his own party and its supporters over the past few weeks due to so many of his scandals. Let's just see how much of a landslide Hillary gets over Trump!


I still think that there is a good chance of 16% or more landslide for Hillary because only now we see very damaging articles in the press about Trump, like for example the Trump's 900 million business loss.


It's getting interesting now. This really is the first time in this campaign that such a damaging piece of evidence against Trump was unveiled. Let's see how the polls go next week. But I can't imagine that this doesn't have an impact on Republican working class voters.


There is a realistic chance that the Trump campaign will collapse before the elections.

When the polls go bad, Trump could start panicking, as he is already. At a certain point, the staff could get so demoralized and disorganized, that the whole campaign team folds. Then the down-ticket candidates will spin away from Trump to save what they can, pushing Trump down even further.

This would likely severely depress voter turn out for the Republicans. If anything, this scenario would be the aim of the Clinton campaign, if just as a possibility to plan for.


I am not the only one who suspects this:

It's not just a 'bad week': Donald Trump's campaign is collapsing

Dave Barnes

I think is a better metric than RCP.
RCP is too picky about what polls they include.
I like Nate the best, but his weighting method is fraught with danger.


Hi Tomi,

Thank you for the article. It was an interesting and refreshing read. I am still not convinced. I find it very unlikely that all the stuff goes Clinton's way. In a perfect scenario maybe that will happen but in the real world that is statistically impossible.
The good news is that Assange's ticking bomb fizzled in a deplorable way. Trump's supporters have stayed awake until 4:00 AM to get a big NOTHING. The bad news is the bomb may still explode but I suspect it's a tiny bomb, it won't damage Clinton significantly. Assange said he has some election stuff. Since he must rely on hackers to obtain his stuff, it is very likely that he gets some help from Russia. And since Russia is helping Trump, it is very likely that Assange's stuff is going to damage Clinton.
But in a tight race it could make things very interesting. There is also a new report about Trump using his foundation to bribe his way to become a GOP leader so he could be a nominee.
My current prediction for November is Clinton 48%, Trump 42%, Johnson 7%, Stein 2%, McMullin 1%


@Dave Barnes

I prefer NY Times to 538 because it is more optimistic :-)
Actually I prefer the page below because it compares nine prediction engines in one page. And it links to all of them if you want to see the details.

Wayne Borean

There are other things in play which we haven't seen explode yet. Like buttons which say 'I paid more taxes than Donald Trump'


@Wayne Borean
I am a Canadian working in the US. I pay income tax to the US and California, and after that I pay income tax to Canada and Quebec. Four income taxes! How dumb is that? But Trump is smart. Few people realize that a tax break for the rich is a completely selfless act on Trump's part. He doesn't need a tax break because the current loopholes allow him to not pay any taxes anyway. So he is fine, but his fellow businessmen desperately need a tax break.

Wayne Borean

Clinton up 10 points in Pennsylvania.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

On the VP debate, a nothingburger. I'd say both sides will claim victory. Tim Kaine may have scored a bit better into the after-debate sound-bites but he also appeared especially early on, to be auditioning for interruptor-in-chief, a look that I think did not serve him well. Mike Pence came on far more calm but he was stuck defending a nasty running mate so plenty of the mud did stick.

I don't think this debate moved the needle in any way and it won't have any lasting effects or particularly memorable moments. Kaine did use it to underline the current narratives especially about Trump's taxes and Putin connection (doing it moderately well towards the end) and Pence did a better job of pivoting to attacks on Hillary on a broad range of issues than what Trump did, from emails to the Clinton Foundation but the impact of those issues is trivial at this point as they're well worn and the Trump stuff is fresh.

I think in their hearts many Democrats are disappointed in HOW Tim Kaine debated, and Republicans quite openly pleased in how their man came across. I really think its very close to a draw but I'd give it on points to Mike Pence. But no bounce either way from this noisefest of talking over each other.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

I saw the VP debate, did not like that Kaine kept interrupting. If we assume Hillary has a master plan, maybe Kaine's job was to keep Pence moving along and NOT defending Trump.

From a comment at [1]:
"According to John, King Trump is not pleased, he’s listening to the post game, and he doesn’t like the fact that they keep saying that Pence won for Pence, and that he didn’t defend Trump, and that Pence and Hillary are better debaters than Donald Trump."

Maybe Hillary's evil plan is to get another tweet storm out of Trump over this.


Isceald Glede

cornelius: Donald can solve your tax problems!

There is no need to wait for any time-wasting legislation to get through the house. Simply do not bother to pay your federal taxes, then log on to "", select "tax evasion" and enter the amount you will not pay. You have to send a filing fee to the Trump Foundation, but in return, you get a presidential pardon rubber stamped by Donald's junior assistant toady himself.

What could be more selfless?

Eduardo M

Most interesting comment on NPR after the debate was that Pence didn't really defend Trump on issues where he disagreed, but presented himself as a standard conservative, and that meant he wasn't trying to appeal to more moderate voters.

I agree that Pence handled himself well, which meant way better than Trump.


Clinton does not have to do anything to demonize Trump's supporters. They can do that themselves and do it much better than the Clinton campaign:

An Indiana parade featured a 'disgusting' float showing Donald Trump executing Hillary Clinton


Compare GOTV efforts of both camps:
Trump’s risky early-voting strategy
The GOP nominee throws standard campaign practice out the window.


Ok 13 point victory for Hillary - seriously? The difficulty for Tomi is that he uses multiple facts and figures and his powerful mind to rationalize his position which is that Trump is a horrible person. This is Tomi's position which is essentially an emotional reaction to Trump. He's an analyst and brilliant on issues like Nokia - amazing.
But we can't expect reasoned analysis of Trump because Tomi's position has not been arrived at by reason.


Which means you can educate us on the errors of Tomi's ways and explain to us what is wrong with his analysis.

So, what IS wrong with the above analysis? Is it only the conclusion you have troubles with? Or the data? Or the assumptions? And which of these, specifically.

A person can have strong opinions and still do a correct analysis of the facts.

Tomi T Ahonen

hi Everybody

GOSH that's weird. No. gosh THAT'S weird. No. Gosh that's WEIRD. We just had our VP Admiral Stockdale moment, and it wasn't even in the VP debate (Stockdale was Ross Perot's running mate when Perot ran as 3rd party independent candidate in 1992 in the Daddy Bush - Bill Clinton election which many Republicans still feel cost Bush his re-election; they obviously are again the type of Republican who can't do math, but thats another story. But yeah, Admiral Stockdale said in the VP debate, literally 'who am I, what am I doing here' haha. Iconic debate moment).

Yeah. THAT's weird. Our Stockdale moment. Third party... Johnson. His VP is.. Bill Weld. Weld has just announced that he stops campaigning for the ticket and will focus the end of the election to just attack Trump.

Ok THAT's weird. That's WEIRD. That's yeah, the Stockdale moment for us. So Johnson is REALLY REALLY sunk when even his own VP abandons the race.

Ok. Did I say Johnson has peaked and his polling will erode and it will end up going to Hillary, not to Trump. I think yeah, safe to say, Weld will work hard to make sure none of the departing 'Libertarians' go back to Trump haha.

Wow that's weird. And I would not put it past Weld to run in 2020 for the GOP ticket, as a very VERY strongly principled non-Trumper.

But its just the election of a lifetime.. what incredible intrigue every day :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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