We now know Hillary will win by landslide. We now know she will have not just a female voter gender GAP that is historic; she will have a female voter SURGE which is only now being reported - a surge that does not show up in the POLLING. We also now see that Hillary is powering a Hispanic voter turnout of historic proportions which puts Florida out of reach for Trump, and which turns Arizona and Texas purple. Yes, Hillary will win not just Arizona but Texas too. That is not because of the women vote, that alone would not do it. AZ & TX are powered by a simultaneous Hispanic voter turnout machine which also clinches Hillary the often-tight races of Nevada and Florida (and put Colorado out of reach). Trump is lost just on those votes alone. It doesn’t matter how he does in Ohio or Virginia or Pennsylvania, if Trump loses Florida and Arizona, he can’t become President. And Any Republican who loses Texas, drowns in a tsunami-wave. This is a double-digit blowout. And anyone sane and rational can see, it cannot be anything else. You have to believe in imaginary mathematics and delusional statistics to think Trump can win this election. Even Trump’s own people are now privately admitting that its over. Even Trump himself allowed that he might lose the election. Whatever happened to ‘we will win so much that you’ll be tired of winning’ haha. Yeah. We’ll see so much of the vile Trump, that we’re tired of Trump, instead.
This is a blog reviewing two articles. The most accurate article written about the 2016 Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump election, written in the year 2014, when Trump wasn’t even known to run and it was not certain Hillary would either. A full two years before today. The best article not just of the year 2014, written about the then far-in-the-future upcoming election, the best article written about this election now, at any time not just in 2014, but the year 2015 as well. The only article that defined - the female voter gender gap AND that there is a SEPARATE female voter SURGE. The same article that explained a Hispanic voter turnout and a greater Hispanic voter gap for Hillary than her not-yet-selected Republican rival; plus things like Hillary’s historic surrogate army; Hillary’s unprecedented war chest and how lopsided the fund-raising would be. I even predicted - yes in October of 2014 - that the REPUBLICAN would RUN OUT OF MONEY because the FUND-RAISERS WILL QUIT before election day, on the Republican side, because the loss was looming so large. It is BY FAR the best article, written about this election, of the year 2014. So good in fact, so accurate and with so much foresight, no other political article written in the next year-and-a-half, not one during the full year 2015, would match it, or exceed it.
The only article even better to describe what was going to happen this November, was when we knew it would be Trump, for sure (this to a statistics nerd like me was already in March) and then I wrote the follow-up blog article in March of 2016, where I did the full election preview of Trump vs Hillary, calling it the Godzilla vs King Kong matchup. That is the single best preview of the November 8 election day result, of any political article or forecast written in the first half of 2016 (through June). I wrote it in March, on this blog, free for my readers (a blog that has no ads, and has no registration either, but has had 6 million readers in its eleven-year history).
This blog is my ‘told-you-so’ article, reviewing what went right and what went wrong in those earlier long predictive articles about this election now in 17 days. This blog will also be a summary of the biggest factors why even today, less than three weeks out, the POLLING will not show the landslide in its full scale. Currently RCP average shows the polls suggesting a 6% to 7% election victory for Hillary. When we compared to recent past elections, she is more ahead than Obama was in 2012 against Romney, or Obama against McCain in 2008, or where Bush was against Kerry in 2004. So yes, its fair to think that if this election goes like 2008, Hillary’s lead will increase from where it is now, to something like a 10 point election landslide. I say it will be a 16 point election and mark my words, November 9 election night count will be nearer to 16% for Hillary than 10%. And current polling only shows 6% to 7%. If you read this article, you will understand why. And all of this has been foretold. The most important reasons were discussed by this blog in 2014, and ignored by almost all of the pundits until now.
So I am a professional forecaster by trade. If you’re a tech expert you know me. If you’re from politics, you have no idea who I am. I am the person who said Apple’s iPhone sales had peaked. I literally am the first person on the PLANET to call that peak. I am the person who called Nokia’s collapse. Literally, the first person on the PLANET to say Nokia was about to collapse, when it did. I am not the kind of person who yells ‘the sky is falling’ every year and then point out to the time it did. I had NEVER before said Apple iPhone was about to peak, nor had I ever before suggested Nokia was in any trouble of collapsing. I also called Apple’s iPod music-player’s peak. I also called Samsung’s rise to become largest smartphone maker (when it was ranked FOURTH in the Top 10). I told my readers that Xiaomi would not, and indeed could not become the third largest smartphone maker. I told my readers Huawei was and would continue to be the third biggest instead. I told my readers the Apple Watch was not going to be a massive global phenomenon like the iPad and iPhone and iPod had been. I am the most accurate forecaster in my industry, mobile tech, and by a wide margin too. You should see some of the silly forecasts my peers made for example about Microsoft’s Windows Phone smartphone operating system (I was, duh, the most accurate on that too, that it would fail utterly totally and comprehensively, even though recently Microsoft had 12% of the world’s smartphone market).
Mobile telecoms is the fastest-growing giant industry in human history (far bigger than television or cars or computers or the internet or airplanes etc, today). Mobile telecoms is also the most volatile giant industry in human history. So for a forecasting challenge, nothing is as difficult to forecast as my backyard, mobile. And I’m the most accurate in that field (and trust me, I’ve had a lot of wrong forecasts too, most famously on Blackberry, only even there, nobody got Blackberry BETTER than me, even though I was off, I was less off than my peers).
Something like politics is far easier to forecast than mobile, haha. BUT politics is a passion for me. Especially US Presidential politics. I’m a Finn, I now live in Hong Kong, I can’t vote in US elections, but I have followed US Presidential elections since Nixon-McGovern of 1972. I lived in the USA for 12 years, studying for my bachelors and MBA degrees for 6 years, then working for 6 years under work visas, to earn enough to be able to pay off most of my considerable student debts. I lived in the USA during the Reagan-Bush 1 years, from 1983 to 1995. Bill Clinton won in 1992. So I saw up-close the Reagan-Mondale, Bush-Dukakis, and Clinton-Bush elections. And then, luckily the internet happened, and while it would have been more difficult to remain closely involved and following the details of US elections, by 1996 I was able to use the internet to stay closely monitoring the 1996 & 2000 elections from my native Finland the 2004 election from my then-new-home in England, and since the 2008 elections from my now-current home in Hong Kong.
To understand how obsessed I am with US politics, I studied Marketing as my bacherlor’s degree at Clarion University of Pennsylvania in the 1980s. My first ‘Minor’ degree was in Computer Science (I learned to program the old-fashioned way, on mainframe computers, Fortran, Cobol, Pascal etc; ‘old school’ haha). And my third focus area, how bizarre to that almost-unheard-of pairing of university study, was... political science! Yes, even though I knew I would never get a career in politics in the USA or in Finland, I had ZERO interest ever to pursue a JOB as a politician or supporting politics, I did, yes take enough courses at Clarion University, to qualify for a Minor degree in Political Science. Don’t try this at home, readers, I am a trained professional.... :-)
So the intricacies of the Electoral College, the issues of fund-raising and gerrymandering and voter suppression and Get-Out-The-Vote etc, this is stuff I didn’t pick up reading Politico. I STUDIED these issues three DECADES ago and trust me, I aced my courses (I graduated with Cum Laude Honors). I know this stuff. And I sat through those courses about politics simply out of a curiosity and passion about the US political system. For the fun of it. I took computer science courses because I wanted it in my career. I was going to be a ‘businessman’ and even in 1983, before the PC was anywhere a valid business instrument, I knew I would need to know and understand computers in my business career. But politics, gosh, I have not done ANY work in ANY way relating to politics in the three decades since. But, occasionally, I have written a blog article about it.
In 2008 I called the Obama McCain election on this blog. In 2012 I decided to try to do better, I wrote one WEEK before election day, my final forecast, for the Obama-Romney election. An election that was razor-thin by polling at the time where the election was LESS THAN ONE PERCENT apart. I called correctly Obama’s big election victory, missing the total count of states won, by one state. I was as accurate as the famed Nate Silver from 538 blog. And how about Trump? In JANUARY, before any states had voted, I called the Republican primary race, getting Trump’s victory, his top 2 highest finishers by delegates in the right sequence; I called the exact date when Trump will clinch; I called the exact dates when his top rivals will quit; and I even got the count of states Trump would win - off by only ONE STATE. I made this - by far the most accurate forecast by anyone, when one third of those states did not EVEN HAVE A POLL out. Either I am incredibly lucky, or I know about forecasting. You make the call.
This year’s election, in the aftermath written with hindsight, from November 9, will say, that Hillary’s victory margin was powered by two voter segments - female voters and Hispanics. She will achieve the biggest MARGIN in those voter groups. A larger gender GAP with women (largest ever measured); and the largest Hispanic voter margin in her favor too. Many pundits will say this was driven by Trump. That is superficial bullshit analysis. Hillary has powered the female surge by methodical systematic work tracing to BEFORE Trump even announced. She set that surge in motion exactly seven YEARS before Trump announced. And the Hispanic voter surge? The Clinton family has worked to prepare Hillary’s Hispanic voter surge for nearly four decades, from the time Bill Clinton was still the Governor of Arkansas. Yes, Trump ACCELERATED those trends, but whoever the Republicans put up against Hillary this year, the ‘generic’ Republican whether Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz or John Kasich or Chris Christie or Marco Rubio, Hillary would have still won by double-digits because of those two giant DEMOGRAPHIC waves that she had worked to build for literally, YEARS. Even DECADES. Women and Hispanics delivered this election for Hillary. She became an unstoppable force.
BUT, she ALSO won the debates! This was not obvious to all pundits. Many honestly thought that Trump was so unconventional, and because he had defeated his Republican rivals, he could win against Hillary (Hillary is the most experienced television debater in the history of television, of any country. She has done 37 televised Presidential election debates when primaries are included. Guess what is her win/loss record. Yeah. She went against Obama, the greatest orator of all time, so that record cannot be pristine, can it. Or can it. Do you REMEMBER 2008? Obama would soar with his big rallies, then come meet Hillary and be pillaried, in EVERY debate they had. Hillary was 25-0 in win/loss against Obama. And she is 9-0 against Bernie. And now 3-0 against Trump. Even Obama lost one debate against Romney. Hillary is a debate MACHINE. Utterly unstoppable. Its her ultimate stage. She is an incredible 37-0 in televised Presidential debates including beating the greatest orator in political history, a massive 25-0. Yeah. Well, I was a professional debate coach in my earlier days too. A pro sees these things. There is technique and skill and preparations. That is, may I use the term already, Madam President Clinton. Undefeated World Champion debater. The undefeated world champ. I told you so in 2014. I said she is superb. And yet people were always worried before Bernie debates and even before Trump debates. Haha, haha. Yeah. Haha. No, she smiled a genuine winner’s smile in those debates. She had those covered. Her toughest matches were the ones from 2008, against Obama. These were children as rivals, compared to Obama of 2008).
So yeah. Debates. What about FUND-RAISING !!!! Who told you that Hillary will have the biggest fund-raising machine ever created, and that she will outraise the Republican rival this cycle, WHOEVER it was. Even would outraise Jeb Bush of the famed Bush family machine. When it turned out cheapskate Trump, that money margin was far better, but I told you in 2014 that she will have the money edge.
What about SURROGATES? Now the pundits are amazed that Trump spend a week in Florida on a bus tour (what happend, Trump? Did the jet run out of jet fuel? So sad. Money trouble, much? Why did you cancel two million dollars of TV ads in Virginia?). Hillary flies her surrogates - Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Cinton, President Obama, Michelle Obama - to separate states to campaign; while her VP Tim Caine and Hillary herself do ‘normal’ campaigning like Trump and his VP Mike Pence (may I interject here, I find it ironic that Mike Pence seems to be also campaigning AGAINST his own Presidential nominee, by how much Pence consistently takes positions against those of Trump; so in some way, even Pence campaigns kind of against Trump). And Trump has ZERO surrogates who can hold a campaign event and draw an audience. When Paul Ryan finally agreed to start to run campaigns for Trump, Trump’s sex tape story broke, and literally even his first campaign event for Trump, was cancelled. Trump is alone, even Paul Ryan’s events could be seen as campaigning partially against him. I told you in 2014, that watch out for the surrogate difference. Hillary will have a historic field of surrogates. And that is how it turned out. There is no article as good about this November, written in year 2014 or even year 2015, than my article, on this blog, written on October 30, 2014, entitled ‘How’s this for an Early Prediction: Hillary Clinton will Win, by Landslide of 12%”. That written literally two YEARS ago. Lets take a look. Here is a summary of what I wrote two years ago:
So lets talk 2016. The short version: Republicans will face a total drubbing, Hillary Clinton will walk all over them and win by a modern-era record landslide. Her margin of victory will be bigger than we’ve seen any first election of a President and biggest margin since the Gipper’s re-election over Walter Mondale, yes I mean the total wipeout that Ronald Reagan gave the Democratic challenger in his re-election vote of 1984. And I am totally convinced not only that Hillary will win and win by a landslide. I am even willing to call it, that this election will end with a result of 56 to 44 or better. Hillary’s margin of victory yes, will be at least 12 points in the electorate. And yes, I am fully aware that in his historic ‘landslide’ first election of 2008, Barack Obama only won by 7 points over John McCain (53 to 46 percent of the vote).
As to states won, roughly speaking Hillary win all states Obama carried in 2008 plus win about 6 to 10 more states than Obama’s landslide against McCain (excepting for the home state or states of the rival candidates, whoever those will end up being). I know perfectly well that US Presidential elections tend to be tight and close, Obama beat Romney only by 5 points and that was seen as surprisingly big victory. George W Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 by 3 points and actually lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 1 point in 2000. I know the general elections tend to be close and 2008 was an anomaly and the last time we saw a double digit blow-out was back in 1984 when Reagan was at his pinnacle of support in his re-election.
I also explained WHY I was writing this. Like my epic analysis blogs of why Nokia was doomed or why the Apple Watch could not become a mass market sales success, or why Google Android would win over Microsoft’s Windows, I wanted to give my readers the insights of WHY. So they could see the facts, did they evolve as I foresaw them, and then understand the issues that lie underneath. I wrote
This blog is based on a lot of sound reasoning but probably many things you might not have thought of (yet) and some things many pundits will not even think of until long into the last weeks of the race two years from now. If you are also a political junkie and have followed US Presidential election, this may be of interest. I hope to give you plenty of insights that you can then use to monitor and analyze the election cycle as it starts now in early 2015. I think several of the observations I have here, you will find useful if you ever get into a discussion about US politics, because this upcoming 2016 election will be historic, but how historic, many pundits have not yet weighed in on all these matters.
HILLARY AS CANDIDATE
I explained that Hillary is the strongest rival Obama had ever met, and Obama easily beat Romney by 5% and McCain by 7%. And since 2008, Hillary had only worked on her electability, getting stronger, older and better. I wrote in 2014: “That was Hillary in 2008 when she lost. Have you been paying attention to what kind of Hillary Rodham Clinton has been seen in the public now, in 2012, when she’s stomping for Democratic candiates around the nation? This is a new Hillary. The happy warrior? She’s always laughing and making jokes.”
What did we see at the Convention? What did we see in the debates? This is the ‘campaign mode’ Hillary. Not the primary mode Hillary or the stealth-mode Hillary before the first Democratic Primary debates. This is the fully-fledged ‘NastyWoman’ haha that many feminists now like to claim as their honorific for her. She is a force in campaigning.
ISSUES
I said the Republicans had drifted to an unprecedented political position where they are against the majority of American voter views on almost all major issues of the day. What was in the news in 2014 is not exactly the same as now, obviously, but consider this paragraph:
Legalizing pot. Republicans are on the wrong side of history. Democrats push it. Hillary on the right side of history. Gay marriage. Republicans are on the wrong side of history. Democrats push it. Hillary on the right side of history. Green energy. Republicans on the wrong side of history. Democrats push it. Hillary was on the right side of history The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. As Secretary of State Hillary was even involved in part, in bringing a negotiated end to those long wars. Global warming. Ebola. Science. Education. Student Loans. Voter suppression. Lower taxes for millionaires? Minimum wage. Consistently the Republican party is running away from facts, into the arms of Fox News and various conspiracy theories by the extreme fringe right. Bobby Jindal said the GOP has to stop being the Dumb Party. It hasn’t. These all will come to hurt the Republicans in ever increasing levels in coming elections not just in 2016, until the Republicans find a new leader to bring them back from the medieval age into enlightenment.
I finished that part with this view from a personal angle, having truly studied US politics as a fair outside monitor who was interested, but could not actually vote in those elections, meaning I had no bias to either side. I wrote: “On just about every issue the GOP today stands on the wrong side of history. Yes, their Tea Party wing loves those positions but the vast majority of the nation doesn’t. When will the Republicans wake up to reality? Again, as an outsider watching the evolution of the two parties, somewhere during the Bush 2 years, the Grand Old Party just seemed to abandon all reason and took a journey into the Twilight Zone. Please come back Republicans, the nation needs two strong SENSIBLE parties not one adult party and one spoiled child that lives in delusion and denial (haha, lets shut down the government...).”
That was two years ago. Now instead of starting on a journey back to reality, the GOP went full Trump in 2016. They could have lost this election by 44-56. Get at least 4 out of 9 voters to support their side. That is still a major party. Instead, Trump will get votes in the mid 30s. His version of Republicanism repels literally two thirds of the nation. That is a fringe joke, not a serious political party.
ITS NOT THE ECONOMY
Most US elections are decided on, or severely influenced by the economy, and recently, economic arguments have favored the Republicans. Then I explained how most elections are decided on the economy, but in 2016 this argument would not be won by the generic Republican, whoever it was. I explained that the key was who were those arguing it on the Democratic side, and why the argument itself now suited Hillary’s team. I wrote:
After these midterms are done, the only thing that matters anymore to Obama will be his legacy. He will want the nation to remember he fixed the broken economy. It will be in Hillary’s interest to argue time and again that the Democrats are the fiscally sensible party while the Republicans wreck the budgets, give tax cuts to millionaires and shut down the government to cause billions more of damage. But the Big Dog? So two great orators will be singing this message. Then we have the Big Dog. Bill Clinton is the master at this song. He loves this story as it helps build his growing reputation for his legacy (that his Presidency was more than Monica Lewinsky and his time was a good time in America). Obama rarely used Bill Clinton in the economy-election of 2012. Hillary will happily use her husband Bill everywhere. And he’ll always hammer that message.
MONEY RACE
Most years, the Democrats have more registered voters, who are lazier to show up while Republicans have smaller number of voters, but they are more loyal. The Democrats have a larger pool of volunteers to create their campaign effort, while the Republicans then have the money advantage and can buy resources (look at Trump’s high salaries) and can afford to do more TV advertising while the volunteers of the Democrats have the time to bring more leaflets to homes, etc. This year its different. Hillary has the largest fund-raising advantage ever. And she’s the Democrat. But was this fore-seeable? I wrote two years ago:
Before Obama, Bill and Hillary had built a strong financial support base out of Wall Street and New York City. They were, to begin with, by the time of Hillary’s Senator campaign, some of the best-funded politicians that ever were. Hillary probably would have had more money than McCain had Hillary gotten into the general election in 2008. But yes, Obama broke the bank, so to speak, inventing a radical new fund-raising methodology that yields far bigger amounts, based on the internet and social media (and even SMS text messaging based fund-raising). In 2008 the two systems went head-to-head, and Obama’s fund-raising outraised Hillary’s. In 2012 Hillary wasn’t running and Obama’s machine broke its own record for most money raised. Now Obama doesn’t need his machine anymore and it will be available to Hillary. So now we get the full Clinton ‘New York’ money machine merged with the Obama online-grassroots fund-raising machine. She will definitely set a new record for fund-raising. Hillary will be so wash with cash, she won’t know what to do with it.
She will be so wash with cash, she won’t know what to do with it. I wrote in October of 2014. The Hillary campaign is now adding new TV ads in totally red states like Arizona, Texas, Indiana and Missouri. She has so much money, she doesn’t know what to do with it. Her SuperPAC has already shifted some of the Hillary TV ads booked to run SENATOR ads for Democrats instead. Already in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. They will expand that strategy to more states. Hillary’s I’m With Her is the richest campaign ever and it used to be that the Republicans could count on being the wealthy campaign. Now Trump is forced to ground his jet and take the bus. This sounds like John McCain in his last weeks when they were counting pennies and grounded their jet and took the bus. The Trump campaign has run out of money. Hillary has so much money, they are literally showering it to races where she isn’t even running. In the article I explained that even the fund-raising from the Republican side will switch to fund Hillary instead! Yes, I told you this was happening, two YEARS ago. I said “Hillary will be so wash with cash, she won’t know what to do with it.” Who else told you this?
And I underlined what this meant for 2016. This is how I wrote about what the money advantage would come down to. Look at the STATES that I mention two YEARS ago:
As the TV-ad wars will be lopsided, Hillary with unlimited funds and the GOP rival out of money, the Clinton machine will redirect much of the ad-slots to support the local candidates with a massive superiority in ad spending and campaign support. It also means, that Hillary won’t have to defend many ‘traditional’ battleground states like say Wisconsin or Iowa or New Mexico or Colorado - they will be so far into her camp by September that they need not worry - it means Hillary can ‘invade’ red states pulling them into play like Georgia, Arizona, Texas yes Texas. The fight in 2016 will not be about who wins, it will be about massively big will Hillary’s victory be. And that means, its about how long are her 'coat-tails’ ie how many Senators, members of Congress, Governors and other elected Democrats can she help win in 2016 being on the same ticket with her on the top.
This is what the ‘intelligent’ pundits now focus on. The Presidential election is decided. The last chance for Trump was his third debate. Now they, the pundit class, is focusing on the down-ticket races. Will Hillary flip the Senate (of course she will) and can she flip the House (she might). The down-ticket races. I told you this was INEVITABLE, back in 2014. If you read that article, you didn’t need to believe me. All you needed, was to understand the scenario. Its possible Tomi has understood what will come, and monitor the signs. Is Hillary outraising Trump. Is she outdebating Bernie. Is she getting Obama to be her surrogate, etc. All that I predicted, came to happen, and that was by no means definite. Jeb Bush started his campaign last year with an unprecedented 100 million dollar fund-raising haul to start his Primary run. But I told you, the fundamentals of fund-raising had shifted in the Obama period and Hillary would be the richest campaign in history. As she now clearly is. Even Jeb would have drowned in this race.
HISPANIC WAVE
So Florida, Colorado, Nevada (even New Mexico), considered battleground states. We will see on November 8 as the votes are counted, that Hillary won all those states by 5 points or more. They were not in the end, battlegrounds. This is not because of Trump. This is because of a Hispanic wave. Yes, again, Trump made that wave BIGGER, but that wave was built by Hillary and the Democrats, over decades. And it was made bigger by the Republicans BEFORE TRUMP, in their silly war against Hispanics. Their own Autopsy of the Mitt Romney election told us what they had to do, yet they did the opposite. So again. Florida, Nevada, Colorado, these are not in play anymore. Hillary has won them, and won the election (if Trump cannot win Florida, he cannot win this election). Its why Hillary and her team are so calm and happy and smiling. They know te Presidential election has been won (but they need turnout, so of course they are not talking about this, and what their internal polling tells them). What was it about the Hispanic turnout? I told you in 2014, first explaining that Obama’s big black voter wave would subside, but only to its normally strong level, from its peak Obama level:
Yes, there will be a natural decline in black support in 2016 to historically normal levels, just about. But against that, there will be a significant upsurge of Hispanic voting to a record level. But this trade-off will be to Hillary’s gain on many levels. First of all, there are more of the Hispanics than blacks. So in numbers, this is a trade-off that adds Democratic turnout not reducing it. However the silver lining to a golden cloud is the location. Hispanics are far more concentrated in the Southern red states like Texas, Arizona and purple states like Florida etc where Democrats ‘need’ help while many blacks live in Northern states that are safely ‘blue’ like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. This ‘trade-off’ will benefit Hillary a little bit in the overall vote count but it will help massively in winning battleground states and even winning some states that she really should not be winning, which are somewhat red.
The trade-off of losing some black vote but gaining Hispanic votes, will help Hillary not just get a bigger election result (because there are more Hispanic voters than black) but it will drive STATES that she will win, because blacks are in many safely-Democratic states while Hispanics are in many states that now will flip - Arizona and Texas - and in states that are normally battlegrounds - Nevada, Florida, Colorado. Who explained this to you in 2014? I’ve been on this blog several times discussing the various in-state polls this year, about what is going on in Nevada or Colorado etc (or Arizona, Texas) and why Hillary’s actual vote will end up better than that given poll that just came out. She wins in the fundamentals. We are NOW seeing it. This was not visible in polling in the summer or certainly not in the Spring. But it was inevitable and fore-seeable. I told you two YEARS ago. The second largest element that delivered Hillary’s margin, the historic level of Hispanic vote. I told you in 2014, this will come, that Hillary and Bill have worked for more than 30 years to build this wave for her. She was registering Hispanic voters in Texas three DECADES ago. Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win Arizona since World War 2. This was no secret. But who told you about this? They were focusing on Dr Ben Carson’s Pyramid theories and Donald Trump’s feud with the Pope.
WOMEN
But Hillary’s big election win, of the scale of Obama in 2012, will instead turn into a double-digit election blow-out (I say 16% in my last forecast, out this Tuesday, exactly 3 weeks before Election Day). That is not powered by Hispanics or the TV ad wars or the power of her surrogates. Hillary wins because there will be a once-in-US-History level of voter surge in the single largest voter block. Women. Here is how I wrote two years ago, why Hillary’s victory will be a blowout landslide:
Consider Hillary’s natural wave. Its not a tidal-wave. Its a goddamn genuine tsunami-wave: women. It is the first time a woman is on the top of the ticket and every single woman who doesn’t think Democrats are literally evil, will want to show up to vote in that election, as its been a long time coming. They will want to join in that party. If they possibly can find an excuse to pull the Democratic lever, those women will want to be able to say, yes I voted for Hillary, even if they are conservatives or registered Republicans.
Remember. Women are more than half of the nation. They voted 55-45 for Obama over Romney. Since 2012 the Republicans have continued their silly war on women. Now if the ‘sleeping’ women are awoken (40% of electorate who isn’t voting) and say only one quarter of those sleeping non-voting women are activated by the Hillary campaign.. thats 10% of women total registered women voters ie a little bit more than 5 percent of the total electroate just there. Signed sealed and delivered. One quarter of women who are eligible to vote who normally can’t be bothered to vote. Get them to the polling booth and Hillary’s win goes from single digits to double digits. And this election may well be one that nearly half of eligible women non-voters will register and come to vote. It will be an avalanche burying the Republican candidate.
Again. Who told you this? Many have talked of a gender gap. A gender gap that was dangerously big after Mitt Romney. A gender gap that was growing perilously large by the early Primaries. A gender gap that was catastrophic by the time Trump was nominated. I also talked of the Gender Gap, but nobody else was talking of a female voter SURGE. This is what powered Hillary’s landslide. The female voter surge. And get this, the female voter surge is NOT MEASURED in the polling. The pollsters ELIMINATE this gap, by assigning a percentage target of how many women and men will be polled. They are nearly even. They’ll typicall poll between 2% and 4% more women than men. The polling as an instrument is DESIGNED not to measure the surge wave!
The actual female voter TURNOUT will be larger than ever. The difference in female turnout will be at least 6% and can be 8% or even 10% vs men. It was 4% for Obama vs Romney. And this female surge is not surging to vote for Trump! They show up to vote for Hillary (or, to be fair, in some cases for Jill Stein the Green Party candidate too). We have JUST had the first reporting, by Politico, that there is a SURGE in female vote. As a separate issue from the gender gap. Duh! I told you in 2014 this was coming. But now, for the first time, only 3 weeks to election day, as the first early votes are received, is this even ABLE TO BE MEASURED. But its real. And duh, OBVIOUS. And now go back to what I wrote, and take out that one sentence about Republican women: “Women will want to be able to say, yes I voted for Hillary, even if they are conservatives or registered Republicans.” Who are the most vocal Republicans coming out for Hillary? Its WOMEN from former First Lady Barbara Bush to Republican CNN pundit Ana Navarro. Women are split in Republican households where the husband says I will vote for Trump and the wife says, she is voting for Hillary instead. Who told you in 2014, that Hillary will have a wave of REPUBLICAN WOMEN to vote for her?
Note, Republicans could have prevented this by nominating a strong woman against Hillary. They could have nominated Susana Martinez or Condi Rice or Kelly Ayotte or Nikki Haley or even Carly Fiorina. Instead they nominted a rapist, Donald Trump. Yes Trump made this issue also bigger for Hillary but she would have had a female surge against Jeb or Kasich or Rubio or Cruz as well. This was fore-seeable. But who talks about the SURGE in female voters? It has only now, 3 weeks before Election Day, emerged as oops, this is a big thing. Yeah. Oops. I told you two years ago.
NATIONAL SECURITY
Then I discussed Hillary stealing Republican voters. I showed the main Republican voter blocks and said the Evangelical voter block was solid, and the Tea Party NRA nutters would also stay loyally against Hillary, regardless of who was on the top of the ticket (ironic, considering Trump the most anti-Christian candidate in history, to have such strong Evangelical support). I pointed out that some economy voters/small business voters will find Hillary palatable but her big steal will be national security voters. This is how I wrote:
This will be where ‘Hillary Republicans’ will be found. The current field of Republican candidates has nobody with any foreign policy credentials or actually served in the military before getting into politics. They are domestic Governors or else Senators or members of the Congress none of whom have served abroad as Ambassador or Secretary of Defence or State or the National Security Advisor or in any such capacity. So if you are a conservative and find national security the overriding reason to vote, and you find Hillary was Secretary of State and then the Republican field has no competence in that area - this is a danger sign. It is a VERY serious danger sign. So they reluctantly go vote for Hillary in 2016 even though recognizing on many social issues, they disagree with her. I would guess the exit polls in 2016 will show that women voters who are registered Republicans and who think national defense or foreign policy is the top issue - such women voters will break for Hillary, yes, she’ll take the majority of that slice of Republicans. The men who hold those views will give a minority slice also to Hillary.
And yes, unprecedented series of REPUBLICAN foreign policy experts have endorsed Hillary. Even Foreign Policy, the most respected journal of foreign policy which is strictly neutral, and which has never endorsed, came out and endorsed Hillary. She has over 100 Generals and Admirals supporting her, by far the largest support of any Democrat who actually hasn’t served in the military (Military support goes to Republicans by huge margins, even with that, Trump’s support is weakest of any Republican ever).
PRIMARY RACES
So then the campaigns. I said the primary race will have Hillary the known quantity, giving no new ammunition to her GOP rival, but the Republicans would have a gruelling death match primary race that has them taking ever more silly positions in the debates with truly damaging videotape. Even I could not imagine Trump, but look at how much truly devastating video Trump did just in the primary race. All efficiently harnessed by the Hillary campaign against Trump. And what did Bernie get out of Hillary? Her Wall Street speeches? Thats it. And that issue only matters to the very socialist edge of the Democratic party, it is not disqualifying in the least to any undecided voters in the middle, that Hillary has a good relationship with Wall Street. Did I foresee this year? Look what I wrote about this political season, two years ago:
This means that going into the general election of 2016, Hillary’s team will have hours of nasty videotape of what Republicans have said about her eventual opponent but the GOP won’t have the same ammunition on her. Then when the Republicans try to run some Bengazi-gate claims in TV ads, they will not seem at all relevant and are quickly fact-checked by the media and corrected by Hillary’s ample TV budget. But all the nasty stuff that was just said some months ago by the other Republicans about their nominee, the electorate will easily remember and the videotape is very compelling evidence. A Democrat will not need more evidence to vote for Hillary but those negative ads will demoralize the Republican voters and help convince some of their voters to switch and vote for Hillary. Others will look at the miserable polls, and stay home.
FLIP-FLOPS TO GENERAL ELECTION POSITIONS
I then contrasted the two parties for their primary fight and the need to pander to their base, and to then pivot into the general election. I explained that Hillary was in the position to need to do this the least of any politician in living memory, and the Republican conversely needed to do this the most (partly due to the Tea Party and partly due to Citizens United funding). So I concluded the flip-flopping with:
While it always happens in all elections that the candidates have to move towards their base in the primaries and then back towards the center in the general election, this time Hillary needs almost none of this, and this time the Republicans feel the pain more than usual. They have to do more of the pandering, for a longer time than in past, over more issues than before, under unprecedented spotlight, and towards a GOP base that has more Tea Party flavor than ever before.
So during the general campaign, one of the many damaging TV ad formats that Hillary will run constantly is the flipflop ads what all her rival has recently switched positions on. And when the contrast is that Hillary in October 2016 says still the same things we all heard in 2008, she will be seen as reliable and steady as a rock while the Republican sounds like the most despicable of politicians, the one who panders to every audience and whose words mean nothing. As this was also the label that stuck very strongly to Romney, this will very much start to apply to all Republicans. That, in turn, will be well exploited by the 2016 Democratic political field throughout their campaigns as there will by then be plenty of those flipflops by their rivals on issues from Obamacare to immigration to minimum wage to personhood to gay rights etc etc etc etc. Because the Democrats now stand on the right side of history, they don’t need to flipflop but Republicans have to.
Then look how I ended that section and consider Trump. I did not foresee Trump. But look at my WARNING to what kind of candidate the Republicans might nominate:
Then the most damning things will happen - several Republicans will flipflop on the very issues that Hillary’s campaign is pushing. These will be local candidates or some members in Congress or Senate who have decided not to run for office anymore, but thoss voices will be devastating. Not to registered Republican voters but to Independents. When Hillary stands on the right side of history, her Republican rival argues for the wrong side, and suddenly rats start to jump off the sinking ship. So the campaign of 2016 will see either a record-breaking flipflopper in the GOP candidate who does understand his or her political chances and loses by 12 points, or else, a stubborn extremist who goes down in flames to a 20 point thrashing (worse than Mondale to Reagan). Either way, the Republican candidate is doomed on the forced extremist views he or she has to take in the primary season.
So consider Vladimir Putin the good guy, and Ronald Reagan the bad guy? That Hillary Clinton the ‘Democrat’ is arguing free trade and the Republican is for trade wars? That Hillary Clinton is FOR the military alliances like NATO and the Republican against. That Hillary is for a balanced budget and Trump wants to explode the budget deficit. On each of these issues, its moderate REPUBLICANS who come, often very reluctantly, on the side of Hillary, and more of them, at least against Trump. I told you this would happen. She was destined to have this happen, but Trump made it only worse for the Republicans. But I foresaw this year’s campaign again. And again, take my ending of that section. Could this not be more prescient of this Autumn’s campaign?
So the campaign leading from the primaries to the general election will feature either a record number of obvious blatant flipflops by the GOP candidate, to try to shift the image from a fiercely conservative to a moderate, or else run as a totally extremist right-winger. In the first case the Republican candidate will be the butt of all jokes on latenight TV and in the other case, the Republican candidate will be the butt of all jokes on latenight TV. The comedians will have to then resort to making jokes about Hillary’s wardrobe and haircut to get something to ‘balance’ the jokes. Hillary will seem like the only adult in town by October.
Hillary will seem like the only adult in town by October. Here we are in October and what are all reasonable, sane, moderate, independent opinions writing about this election? Trump does not have ONE daily newspaper endorsing him. Hillary has a bunch of so conservative papers that they in over 100 years of existence have NEVER before endorsed a Democrat. Oh, and Trump was just endorsed by the newspaper of the KKK. What do all the opinions about Hillary say? That she’s the only adult in the room. I told you this was inevitable.. two YEARS ago. It was not just Trump, this year was destined to bring out the madness on the Republican side. Look at normally-semi-sane John McCain and his loonie-tunes positions he now is taking. Its not just Trump, its HIS VOTERS who are drunk on Tea Party madness. Saturday Night Live in its last debate jokes, had to resort to Hillary’s posture joke leaning against a chair, and her way of walking. Because she is too sane to be able to crack jokes about anything she actually says. Its like trying to make jokes about Obama. You have to resort to his ears.
CONVENTIONS
Donald Trump ran the worst Convention in history. It was literally the only one, which caused the favorability of its candidate to fall during the event, not rise. After a 4 day free prime-time TV extravaganza that a TV CELEBRITY organized, he was unable to get people to like him. Meanwhile Hillary ran a perfect Convention, that was very inconveniently wrecked at the start by Wikileaks, and they still salvaged a totally unified party and a huge bump in her popularity. Did I foresee this? This is how I wrote two years ago:
At the very least, the Republican nomination convention is a mixed message and inefficient. In the worst case its a fight still then. The Republican convention will be even more bitter and argumentative and split because the polls will show already then a massacre coming. The blame-game will be already on, at least on Fox News and the right wing talk shows. So the party will be torn on should it stand with its obviously-going-to-lose Presidential candidate and let Senators, Members of Congress and Governors go down in flames with him/her or should they abandon the candidate and save their own skins. Compare to the Democratic convention. It will be organized, it will be united. It will be a party celebrating the huge lead that Hillary will have in all the polls by then Obama was not the close darling of much of the base of the Democratic party but now Hillary is. So its a huge rainbow coalition party from the gays to labor unions.
And consider the lineup. Would the Republicans really want George W Bush to speak in 2016? Not likely. If so, then only via videotape and only briefly. How about Dick Cheney? John McCain? These are not electrifying speakers even if you do have them speak. What about the DEMs? So want a superstar speaker? How about the sitting President? Remember, its a convention. How does Obama do his speeches? Oh my gosh. It will be another epic Obama speech. This is his church, he will shine like rarely seen before.
I could not imagine that the Republican nominee would be such a fool he’d deliberately CONTINUE his feuds with his rivals like John Kasich and Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney into the Convention. But I did see a badly splintered Convention where the blame game was already on, and that there would be no superstar speakers. Scott Baio? Seriously? Scott Baio? And that Hillary’s Convention would not only be united (at the end, as it turned out to be, even inspite of Wikileaks) and had an unprecedented lineup of speakers, where the best speech was not even by President Obama, who arguably delivered his best speech ever, it was by Michelle Obama, arguably the best political speech in history and which has lines repeated now by Democrats up and down the ticket from Hillary on, saying, when they go low, we go high.
SURROGATES
And who told you Obama would not just be asked to be a surrogate, he’d agree, and that he’d be good at it, and that his POPULARITY would be above water? Obama was 5 points under water in 2014. Why would anyone even WANT an unpopular President as their surrogate? John McCain did not want W Bush to campaign with him. Al Gore didn’t want Bill Clinton to campaign with him. If Obama would now be 5 to 10 points under water in his popularity, you’d understand if Hillary was campaigning as being against Obama and anything with Obama in it, like Obamacare. Instead, what happened? Obama is at his highest popularity since 2009!! He is more popular now than he was even in his re-election against Romney. Was this fore-seeable? Did I tell you this two years ago? I Wrote: “As the conservative mass media led by Fox News has shifted its guns from bitching about Obama to attacking Hillary, it means the relentless barrage of nastyness about Obama finally comes to an end after Hillary offially announces in January 2015, and that means Obama’s favorability ratings also start to rise.” Exactly. The Republican hate-machine turned to focus on Hillary, and voila! Obama’s favorability bounced right nicely back to where it normally would be, clearly above water. He will leave office as the most popular living President ever measured by Gallup. And yes, of course, Hillary is embracing him and he is eagerly campaigning for her. Its his legacy which is at stake. Both Bill Clinton and W Bush were hurt that their successor-candidates did not want them campaigning with them. Hillary knows the power of incumbency and wasn’t going to let this go unused. And the President? He loves going onto the campaign trail for Hillary, and to attack Trump and the Republicans like now, Marco Rubio in Florida. But I told you in 2014. Again, this was by no means certain, it was in fact UNLIKELY, yet I called that too, perfectly. Two YEARS ago.
I also called it that Michelle Obama will speak at Hillary’s Convention and would campaign for her (no previous Presidential spouce had campaigned for their successor, ever).
BATTLEGROUND STATES
I wrote that Hillary will have a stronger lead that Obama did in the main battleground states. I wrote some details of the main states and why she’ll be ahead in each. I don’t want to copy all that. I want to take the surprise state, that essentially nobody considered a battleground state before June of this year. Its Arizona. This is how I wrote about AZ two years ago:
Let me mention one of the surprise states Hillary will run away with. Arizona. Arizona was just off the map with Obama, he considered it but found it out of reach. Now Hillary is the older candidate, Arizona has a large elderly retired population. Arizona has a large military vote, and Hillary appeals to that. And yes, Hispanics. Its not just one of the states where Hispanic population is a big minority, they also have had many fights with Jan Brewer the Governor and the ‘papers please’ laws etc. As the Democrats have been prepping the state to become purple and working to activate the non-voting Hispanic community, Hillary’s run will bring them out. I think Hillary will win Arizona rather easily with these advantages (as long as an Arizonan is not on the ticket). She will have to fight for it, but she will win it.
We see now that AZ is in play. Hillary is up by the RCP average in Arizona she was down last month but up in July. Who told you in 2014, that the trends suggested that Arizona was going to be a Presidential battleground for 2016? Not many said that two years ago. I told you so. And I did not list all 50 states. I don’t have a paragraph there about Oklahoma or Alabama or Montana. I understood what were Hillary’s strengths and what mattered in Arizona, and I called it. Brave call, two years ago, don’t you say? When Obama lost Arizona by 8 points in 2008, when his national victory against McCain was 7%; and Obama lost Arizona in 2012 by 9 points, when his national victory over Romney was 5%. So a total effective margin of how bad the ‘Generic Democrat’ did in Arizona was 15% in 2008 against a native Arizonan in John McCain and was 14% without an Arizonan on the ticket. And this massive deficit, I said Hillary can cancel and WIN in Arizona? I said that 2 years ago. I singled out, only Arizona, as the state that perfectly fit her campaign and that very red state, that she would flip. As she now seems headed to do, by current polling. Talk about a wild guess!
REPUBLICAN VOTER COLLAPSE
And then, I said that the Republican side will see its collapse. That there will be desertions of Republicans who will abandon their candiate, and announce in public that they will be voting for Hillary instead. This is not because of Trump. This is not a unique phenomenon only due to Trump’s silly campaign. This was ALSO inevitable and fore-seeable, because Hillary ran a campaign designed to generate this result. It would have been the same against Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or John Kasich or Chris Christie. This is how I wrote in 2014:
There will be a collapse of Republican support. First, there will be a chorus of conservatives and past Republicans who will express admiration and support of Hillary Clinton, to the disgust of the GOP candidate. Then the money will vanish. Why would Republican donors bother to give money to the obvious loser. The support by the party will disapper, ever more of the sitting Senators, Governors etc will not want to be seen with the obvious-to-lose candidate. This all will be a vicious circle which means the polls will only worsen. There won’t be enough money to run a reasonable TV ad campaign and not enough money to travel as much as needed. The candidate will start to abandon states where they previously campaigned and claimed they had been competitive. The malaise will spread.
And then the ultimate happens, there will appear a small but very widely reported group of moderate Republicans and conservatives (mostly women) who will endorse Hillary. The election will be totally over by then. On election day many volunteers will not show up and actual voters will be severely depressed on the Republican side. Now, on the Democratic side there will also be a deflating of voter enthusiasm in as they feel the election is ‘in the bag’ but again - Hillary effect, the biggest single voting block - women - will not want to miss this opportunity. Even if overall Democratic voting intensity will be down for the blowout polls saying its a foregone conclusion that Hillary is going to win, nonetheless, women will show up in record numbers to celebrate the first female candidate for President. Even on this final election factor, Hillary can bank on her side winning big even when turnout is surprisingly low.
I said Republicans will start to endorse Hillary “...to the disgust of the GOP candidate.” That is exactly what we have seen. Then I said the money will vanish. Yep, that happened. Then I said the support of the PARTY will disappear. That just happened. Then I said not enough money to run TV ads, or to travel. Now Trump is cancelling TV ads in Virginia and getting onto a BUS Tour. Mr Billionaire. Mr Self-funding Billionaire is humping it on a bus. A BUS. Then I said the candidate will start to abandon states.. Like Colorado, like Virginia, like Michigan. Yes. This is exactly what is happening. And yes, we have moderate Republicans endorsing Hillary. I told you in 2014 this would happen. The election was over when that started.
That is spooky, in how perfectly I saw this year’s election when I wrote that two years ago, and where the whole blog mentions Donald Trump only once as a fringe joke of the Republican party. I said Hillary would not fall into the over-confidence debater trap that caught Obama by surprise. I said Hillary will have enormous coat-tails to bring in Senate and House election victories and have so much money and time and surrogates, she can shower those to the down-ticket races. This is how I concluded my very long essay in 2014:
There has never been an election where one side holds all the cards. Democrats have more voters, their margin only growing due to demographics. Because the Republicans have not stopped waging war on the demographic and ethnic groups that are growing, this issue alone decides it for Hillary. The money and ground game are both in the DEMs column. The issues domestically all on Hillary’s side and she’s by far the more competent on foreign policy too. For women this is the surge election where unprecedented number of normally non-voting women will show up. Their numbers are that enormous that this issue alone not just decides the election but guarantees a landslide victory. But the other demographic trends also help Hillary and hurt the rival. Even worse for the GOP those trends tend to impact Southern ‘red’ states to flip to vote for the DEMs. Hispanics will vote in record numbers, and Hillary will steal many Republicans from the national security/military wing.
Hillary’s campaign is better, she is the better candidate and she has an unprecedentedly strong surrogate team. Her rivals are forced to ridiculous extremist positions in a bitter long nomination fight probably meaning discord also at their convention. That contrasted to the party that the DEMs will throw for Hillary. Her supporters are very enthusiastic while most Republican supporters will be severely demoralized. Because there seems to be no hope, at some point in the last weeks the Republican support will simply collapse and Republican voters will not even show up. She has so much dominance to spare, she can help most other Democrats to also win. The mutual support will create a virtuous cycle where all Democrats and even some Republicans support her, and Hillary will help them win.
There has never been an election where one side held all the advantages. In elections with far lesser advantages, first-time (ie non-incumbent) Presidents have managed to win in landslides like Reagan and Obama. Hillary is destined to win by landslide even if all the luck goes against her. The only possible thing that could derail her is a major health issue like a heart attack and even that would not necessarily end her chances. Pay attention to the 2016 election, it will be historic.
Yes. Pay attention to Hillary’s run in 2016. It will be historic. And yet, for all the incredible preparation and hard work and talent and skill and money, this election coverage, from November 9, will be overshadowed by Donald Trump. That he lost this election for the Republicans. The reality is, this was predestined. Hillary held all the cards and would have easily beaten even Ronald Reagan at his peak. But its not bad, that the narrative now becomes ‘Trump lost it’ because that means, that the Republicans will be delusional about what happened. They will think that their sick Tea Party infested mob can win a general election with their wars against blacks, wars against Muslims, wars against Hispanics, wars against gays, wars against women. And thus, they will nominate another loser in 2020, who will go down in epic double-digit loss as well (as I also predicted in my 2014 blog). Yes, Hillary will be a two-term President. The first election where the Republicans have a chance is 2024. If they grow up and learn their lessons after the 2020 election catastrophy that is sure to follow this disaster.
I ended my blog with these words two years ago, on October 30, 2014:
Yes, there are many who already now are coronating Hillary Clinton, I am not the first to do so. But not many are daring to predict today before the 2014 midterms are done, that Hillary will win by double digits. I will be here in November 2016 for you to come and ridicule me if this was a silly posting or to discuss how it went, if I end up near the mark. And I will return periodically to this topic as we get into the contest, when significant developments happen, to update you if my prediction is still on track. But I have to tell you, I am stunned looking at my analysis, to find that yes, indeed, every conceivable advantage is with Hillary Rodham Clinton, the next President of the United States elected to office two years from now. Wow.
You will not find a more accurate article covering EVERYTHING that matters in a political election and getting every major item perfectly correct or at least mostly correct. I should say that blog also discussed many other things, some that we will not yet know (the full power of the Get-Out-The-Vote effect for example) and that the Putin gambit has so far turned out even more weird than I expected (I thought Putin would start another invasion, not actually interfere with the US election and for the Republican candidate to sing Putin’s praises while disparaging Ronald Reagan and the Bush family). I did say I expected Hillary to pick a Hispanic VP which did not although Tim Kaine obviously does speak Spanish fluently. So there were items there, that were not perfectly in line. But the big picture. Nobody said there would be a female voter SURGE in ADDITION to the female voter GAP. Nobody said Arizona and Texas would be in play, because of a Hispanic wave. Nobody said Obama’s popularity would inevitably rise and he (and Michelle Obama) would turn into Hillary’s surrogates. These are bold, very unconventional forecasts from two years ago. The money advantage, some had written about that yes, the Ground Game, the Electoral College map, some had talked about that already in 2014. And nobody, absolutely nobody said in 2014 that Hillary would win by double-digits. I said. I said 12% election victory against the generic Republican, before we knew it would be Trump. I also said, if the Republicans were so dumb to nominate an extremist appealing only to the extreme wing (what Trump turned out to be) that the election would be such a rout, that candidate would get less than 40% of the vote. Talk about a powerful predictive blog indeed.
THEN THE MARCH 2016 TOTAL UPDATE
So lets move 18 months into the future. In March of 2016 it was obvious to anyone who understands statistics, that Trump would win the most delegates. While that did not guarantee him the nomination because of the splinters in the party, he might have been beaten by a coalition of ‘never Trumpers’ but he was destined to get the most delegates won in the Primaries. That was obvious by March. So he was the clear front-runner to get his party’s nomination. So I wrote my follow-up to that above blog, updating ‘everything’ to 2016, as of March. I wrote my ‘Godzilla vs King Kong’ blog. The preview of the actual title bout of Hillary vs Trump. How would that go. I said Trump would indeed not get to more than 40% of the final election - BUT in March, it was not obvious that we would have third-party Candidates (yet) so I gave Hillary all of the non-Trump vote ie 60%. I predicted that she would get a 20 point election crushing of Trump. I stand by that prediction today, that I am 100% certain, Trump will not get more than 40%, but because SINCE THAT FORECAST, there have emerged two national and one local rival to both, as viable third party candidates - Gary Johnson on the Libertarian party, Jill Stein the Green party and Ewan McMullin the rebel Republican/Independent in Utah, that the non-Trump vote will be at least 60% and Hillary will easily win the election taking the vast lion’s share of that. But with that caveat, lets go to my March blog. Godzilla vs King Kong. Alien vs Predator. Hillary vs Trump.
Note in that article that I start by discussing the VP selections and that part I was totally wrong. I thought Hillary would pick Julian Castro and I thought Trump would pick someone who could help his campaign on the middle. We did see that Hillary considered Castro but picked Kaine instead. I can understand that decision even on the top-line public reasons, we don’t know what else may have been involved underneath (possibly reasons why Castro ended up being unelectable, we will probably never know).
The Trump VP selection turned out a nightmare for him. Almost all of the best choices I listed, Condi Rice, Susana Martinez, Kelly Ayotte etc - were indeed approached who very rapidly and loudly said no. Trump went down the list and had a total of 11 rejections of ever less useful VP choices until his final decision was between Bridgeboy Chris Christie or Mike Pence. Trump wanted Christie, his political team and kids were able to almost-convince Trump to go with Pence instead. And then we had the ‘final-final’ fiasco and the botched roll out and poor Pence, so despised by Trump, that Trump didn’t bother to take his VP out for dinner, when the Pence family had arrive to New York City to Trump Towers to the biggest day of dad’s life, being announced as the VP for the Republican party. Trump dumped them on the street, they had to go to Chico’s to eat Mexican food by themselves. And since his choice, it has often seemed that Trump’s own VP is campaigning if not against Trump, then in a weird parallel Campaign detached from Trump. His VP debate was mocked TV ads for not even knowing his own running mate.
The VP selection can move the race. The most famous such move was Sarah Palin that jumped lagging John McCain’s campaign up nearly ten points (but only briefly until we found out she’s a lunatic). The Mike Pence VP selection did not move the needle and neither did the Tim Kaine selection. This race is about two powerful, strongly polarizing characteres on the top, both of whom picked VPs that cannot overshadow them. At least Kaine does behave like being on the same side and Hillary doesn’t have to correct the position of the ticket, that the VP is wrong, and our actual position is.. x, which Trump has now done many times including haha, on whether Trump will accept the verdict of 200 million American registered voters on November 8.
But that was a guess of who they’d pick, and on both sides I was wrong. Both did consider my choices but ended elsewhere, Hillary because she decided, Trump because he could not get those to join his ticket. This year the VP doesn’t matter except for the state of Virginia, a big battleground state, which Hillary took out of play with Kaine. Smart play in that way. And idiot Trump has wasted millions in trying to win VA. He’s behind by 8% in the state and has admitted he’s not going to win it by pulling his resources. Hillary pulled TV ads out of Virginia in July, as they were so far ahead.
I also have a mathematical discussion of then-current polling at the top of the article. If you want to re-read the March 2016 Godzilla vs King Kong blog, then skip down to CONVENTIONS where it gets ‘relevant’. I write that the Democratic convention will be unified, that Bernie will endorse, Obama will speak, and Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden etc will all be there to have a big happy tent supporting Hillary. Again, I couldn’t foresee an outside disruption attempt by Wikileaks but aside from that, yes, the most unified Convention in recent history of the Democrats, of any year when they did not have an incumbent to nominate. On the Republican side, I predicted chaos and a divided party where major party leaders would not show up, and many openly endorse Hillary instead. As it happened. I warned that if the party had a 3-way split (as it ended, with Trump, Cruz & Kasich) then the rifts were un-fixable. As they have become too and continue and deepen till today.
I discussed the money race. In March Trump was still spinning his lies that he is self-funding but it was only very recently back then that it became obvious he only was lending his campaign millions, and taking far more in as donations. I speculated that its possible Trump would liquidate some of his assets (sell buildings, etc) to finance a Billion-dollar run for the General election, but the early signs (in March) suggested its more likely Trump will not self-finance and in that case, that Hillary will have a funding advantage. I finished that section writing in March: “In terms of which campaign will actually be better funded, the signs are forming - but not certain - that it will still be Hillary who has more cash this year than richest-man-ever-to-run Trump’s ‘self-funded’ campaign haha. Trump is such a total fraud!”
FREE MEDIA COVERAGE
The first clear issue that has never mattered before, but became a major factor in 2016, was the free media that Trump got in the primary race. It was measured to be worth 2 Billion dollars worth of air-time. He was on TV 30 times more than his nearest Republican rival. And a very big part of Trump’s rise in the Republican race was how he got total access to all networks, and Fox News became almost his private PR channel.
I wrote in March a lot about the free media, pointing out first, that while the Primary races were going on, the difference of Trump vs Hillary in coverage was only 2 to 1, and then I said that once it became the two finalist candidates against each other, a natural balance would emerge where Trump would not get more than 2 to 1 and it would be nearer to 1 to 1 but still probably in Trump’s favor, but only a little. So his big advantage would diminish. As it happened. But then I wrote about the COVERAGE by free media.
Then we suddenly get a different dynamic. For everything dumb and damaging thing that Trump says instinctively, Hillary is asked to comment, and she’ll respond - sensibly like the adult vs the child. But whenever Hillary says something - sensible - and Trump is asked to respond, often we see how ill-prepared and clueless Trump is about most things relating to actual governance. The past many months the journalists in the media have been bewildered by Trump, how to handle his interviews, how he just talks over you and doesn’t answer questions and responds often with clear lies. The media are getting better at it, and learning how to deal with Trump. But currently, they do not go to every rival of Trump to ask for comments (and often when they tried, the rivals said, they don’t want to comment on Trump). That will change as the media learn the game Trump is playing.
This is exactly what happened. The media are getting ever better to know Trump and meanwhile Trump has now retreated to the confines of Fox and hasn’t had a press conference in over two months because he is increasingly afraid of the press. He feels they are mean to him, while they are just doing their jobs and forcing Trump to deal with what all he has recently said. Hillary however, is not afraid to appear on all TV networks and do press interviews and to comment on things Trump says. This is how I predicted this will play out, in the next 9 months to election day:
Trump will be afraid to show up at a media which has a grudge against him and has spent weeks or months honing its ‘follow up’ questions relating to whatever was that last spat that had Trump putting them into the boycott. Its a VERY bad and shortsighted media plan, which Trump can do, because he is Trump, and he thinks he’s smarter than anybody else, so he has overruled his media advisors. It will come back to haunt him because the media audience is so fractured, that the more DIFFERENT media you can get exposed to in the US system, the more you will reach voters who haven’t yet heard your message. So its like Obama, who inspite of how much Fox is against him, keeps going back to Fox. Trump will end up speaking ever more to the small dedicated group of his loyal followers, and that echo chamber, and ignoring the rest of the electorate who will become ever more disgusted by Trump and reject him wholeheartedly.
Trump will speak to an ever more small dedicated group of loyal followers, and in that echo chamber. Yes. And the rest of the electorate will become ever more disgusted by Trump and yes, they are now rejecting him wholeheartedly. This is EXACTLY what happened. And Trump, like at his rallies, he really thinks this is what America wants and that those people reflect the fullness of the US electorate.
On policy issues, I mapped some areas where they agree and where they disagree, but Trump is all over the place, his debates featured literally hundreds of lies, its pretty pointless to even consider Trump on any issue or position. I did plenty of analysis on various elements of where his positions stand, and concluded on a ceiling view:
Nationally he can’t get to 50% support. More than half of the total nation hates him. He is angering and pushing away ever more voters the longer the nomination fight continues, and as Trump makes ever more hateful statements, now for example promising to bring back waterboarding ‘and worse’. He wants the US to commit war crimes, to carpet bomb enemies, to kill the families of the enemies, and so forth. Some who want a viceral purely emotion-driven revenge, will support this. Most are far more intelligent than that, and will say no. And there are eight months of time to argue and debate all this, where those who might be unsure, will have plenty of time to hear from essentially every sensible current and past leader, including most in the military, who say that is foolish and very counterproductive. Trump will push away the middle and strongly energize the left. He has a national election vote ceiling somewhere near 40%. That is not yet fully in view, because his Republican rivals didn’t get serious about attacking Trump until this past weeks. And thats only about half of Trump’s faults, the other half of the attacks will come from the Democrats.
The full list of Trump’s faults is not yet in full view (in March) and half of the attacks will only come from Democrats (ie starting at the Conventions). True. And Trump has a national General Election ceiling of about 40%. His peak was 41.5% in the four-way polling as reported by RCP which was a month ago. He has been coming down ever since the first debate. He fell below 40% after the sex tape two weeks ago. He is now today at 39.4%. How good was my guess in March? The single most relevant number for this election is the Trump vote/polling. He has a solid ceiling he cannot crack. It was approximately 40% and its now coming down from its peak. Will it end at 38% or 35% or where, if you only want to monitor one number in the last two weeks, look at Trump’s national polled support in the 4-way race. He may end up setting a record for worst support ever measured in any year in a Presidential election by one of the two major candidates. He is near that record level now. But I told you in March. There is solid math that gives us this roughly 40% and all of Trump’s behavior in 2015, in the early primaries, up to my blog, and in the seven months since, has only reinforced that level. Trump is not even attempting to grow his support. He is only campaigning to appeal to his loyal supporters. He is essentially ‘preaching to the choir’ in the church. They already believe. You should be preaching to the congregation sitting in the pews.
DEMOGRAHICS MATH
Probably the best section of the March Godzilla-King Kong blog article is the middle, where I do the demographics math. Read it, that is 100% relevant today. Nobody else did that math back then. Since then essentially all who looked at the demographics have concluded that gosh, Trump is headed to a worse drubbing than Romney, simply because Trump’s gender gap is worse than Romney, Trump’s black support is worse than Romney - wait, think about that. Think about that. Romney ran AGAINST A BLACK SITTING PRESIDENT. And now, Trump, running against a white woman, is getting worse black support! - and then the Hispanic gap, worst ever measured. I finished that section with this conclusion:
The math is brutal and the strategists on both sides can see this coming a mile away. The major Republican donors around Koch’s network just quit the Presidential race and Sheldon Adelson didn’t bother to even use his freshly-bought newspaper to try to pick a fave candidate, when Trump had become inevitable - seeing this math, they knew it was a foregone conclusion, Trump cannot win the general election. He cannot. This is why Mitch McConnell has already now said, its ok for Republican Senators to run TV ads against Trump. REPUBLICANS. They know he goes down in flames against Hillary. Its not about his silly Wall or deporting Illegals or the anti-Muslim rhetoric or feuding with the Pope. Its demographics.
And this was visible in March. Note what I then added to the story: “But these are numbers which will be seen EARLY in the race. It is BEFORE we consider the disasterous debates by Trump losing to Hillary on live TV. This is before we see the support from Trump fading away, when various Senators, Members of House, Governors etc running away from Trump, either to hide, or worse, to go and endorse Hillary instead. Many local Republicans will refuse to be seen with Trump to avoid local electorate backlash. That is when the rot really comes in. The loss becomes epic historic gargantuan calamity.”
That is exactly what is happening now. Sitting Republicans have run ads against Trump. Many sitting Republicans have said they endorse Hillary. Paul Ryan right now is featured on Breitbart’s page with the headline “He’s with Her”. Two dozen of Trump’s supporters have UN-endorsed him! That has never happened in the modern era of politics, this late in the race. But I told you in March that this catastrophy was already building, its signs were obvious. It was inevitable, because it was Trump and we had seen enough of what a Trump Campaign would be like.
TRUMP FANTASY MAP
In March we heard of Trump’s ridiculous fantasy map, how he would bring in new voters and the silent majority and how he’d flip Michigan and Pennsylvania and win his home state of New York. I explained in the article that this was utter delusion. And then explained the details and concluded (about white non-college educated older voters):
No, Trump is not going to win this demographic but Hillary will need to defend it and she’ll probably see some erosion in it. Not enough to flip a Michigan or Pennsylvania, those states are so blue to begin with, that Trump cannot flip them. Michigan is 82% white, not white enough. Pennsylvania is 81% white. The funniest argument from Trump is New York State. Yeah, if Trump were to win NY state, he’d have a good chance to win the election. New York votes safely Democratic by more than 20 points. Hillary was New York’s popular Senator. And the state? Is 18% black and 8% Hispanic. No way is Trump going to win this state.
Trump has quit his New York project. He has pulled his TV ads out of Michigan. He is still trying desperately in Pennsylvania which is totally lost but Trump cannot pull resources because if he quits PA, he admits he has lost. But PA is 6.2% for Hillary, a FAR too big gap to make up in 17 days. No, that was silly. But I told you so in March. Trump wasted countless millions in that futile task. If he had marshalled his resources in a SANE way he could have had a Campaign that was at least marginally competitive. What he ended up doing, with Michigan and New York haha, is essentially take massive bundles of cash and just set it on fire. (Incidentally, that hasn’t stopped. Guess where Mike Pence was day before yesterday? He held a campaign event in New Mexico. NM has not been competitive in a decade. It is 8.5% for Hillary and the Democrats haven’t bothered to spend one dime on TV ads in the state and no surrogate has bothered to visit. It is one of the safe Democrat states. But Trump doesn’t listen to professionals, he wastes his money on all sorts of silly gambles that have no chance of paying out. That was time Pence was not campaigning in Colorado, Arizona or Nevada, neigboring states that ARE battleground states)
SARAH PALIN, SQUARED
I discussed the cult of Trump followers, and what drives them and how they eventually will find their way out of the cult, because Trump will abandon them of course in his epic loss. And they will become remarkably bitter. But I also make the point about Trump and his immediate future. I said he is the Sarah Palin 2008 experience but squared. I wrote:
In 2008 Sarah Palin was an instant punchline to any joke. You could not watch a nightly Letterman or Daily Show or any other talk show without some Sarah Palin joke thrown in. She totally lost all credibility during two months into the election. Trump is WORSE than Sarah Palin and has FAR MORE subject matter that is FAR MORE damaging and the echo chamber will run FAR LONGER not only on 24 hour news like in 2008 but now also Twitter, YouTube, Instagram etc. Trump will have no political credibility by the Autumn. Those voters who really do like some aspect of Trump and actually do intend to vote for him, will soon learn to keep their political views secret - because Trump will by then be such a blatant open joke. Remember Sarah Palin in October 2008, you instantly cringed when she was even mentioned. That is Trump’s fate now, only worse. And it has already started (but far FAR worse).
Look now at the brilliant depiction of Trump by Alec Baldwin on Saturday Night Live. Trump is a national joke, three weeks before election day. Most who support him, will not dare to talk about their support except when in the company of others they KNOW are also Trump supporters. This is now, while Trump still attempts to maintain an illusion that he can win. The air is coming out of the tyres. Even Fox’s own polling shows Trump behind by as big a margin as McCain’s loss to Obama. By November 9, Trump will be an unwanted, hated, despised, loser like Sarah Palin but squared. He was not the VP in the shadow of McCain. He was the top of the ticket. His loss will also cost the Senate and the Supreme Court, possibly also the House. The loss will be catastrophic (I say 16% in my last forecast) far far worse than Sarah Palin’s 7% in 2008. Trump will be toxic. I finished my blog of Godzilla vs King Kong with this prediction about this whole season:
When this year’s election massacre will be studied in the future, most will be mystified, in how could the Republicans be this dumb. Wasn’t this obvious to the simplest, most basic elementary student of politics. The blueprint was commissioned, paid for and distributed in 2012, when Romney lost. What is it that the Republican party has to do, and what is it that it absolutely cannot do. Now, in the interim years with the Tea Party, John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Congress and Senate, the Republicans have done the exact opposite. And then to truly underline they know what they are doing, that this is deliberate destruction of chances to win in an election, they nominated the most hateful, most deceitful, most divisive candidate who then made all the things only worse. The 2016 election could have been close with a moderate modern candidate of competence and integrity. Instead they nominated Donald Trump. The man whose name will be synonymous with catastrophic election loss and possibly even the end of the Republican party as we know it.
So yes. This blog. The Communities Dominate blog, usually a tech blog, wrote the two most insightful, most foresightful blogs about the 2016 election. I told you Hillary will win by double-digits even before we knew who her opponent will be. And once we saw it was Trump, I added the parts that this will threaten the very survival of the Republican party and cause long-lasting damage to various demographic segments. My prediction for the race has ranged from a 12% landslide to Hillary, to a 20% landslide. Since we knew it was Trump, I have consistently said Trump will not win more than 40%. My final forecast out this Tuesday said 53% for Hillary, 37% for Trump, 6% for Johnson, 3% for Stein and 1% for McMullin and the others. I did call essentially all of the big issues that matter this year, most of them I called two YEARS ago, and many on issues nobody was even talking about in 2015. If you want to read WHY Trump will ACTUALLY lose by 16% and not the 7% that the current polling shows, read Part 3 of this trilogy. The current forecast.
And if you are in tech, of course you want my current tech forecast for the mobile industry which is here.
If you are sick of numbers and now want to laugh at Trump, my first joke book was launched this week (my 13th book overall) and it is TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve: 1001 Jokes about the Alleged Candidate. See sample free pages here.
Wow, a very nice 3 cuppa. Well done.
16 % with 3 weeks to go, is a bold call.
If Texas goes blue, the long knives business in Houston and Dallas should be brisk.
11 accusers now, so I guess if it gets to 16 total you will be right.
Even Christie is backing off now.
s/
Posted by: steve | October 23, 2016 at 04:07 AM
Tomi
I think you are right in saying that the Republicans do not get it. They still think this elections should have been theirs.
Near-final thoughts on a repulsive presidential campaign
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865665424/Near-final-thoughts-on-a-repulsive-presidential-campaign.html?pg=all
Posted by: Winter | October 23, 2016 at 08:59 AM
I've sort of been wondering that there have been less attempts than I thought at milking off the Deplorables with merchandise superficially linked to Trump's campaign. Like a shop selling T-shirts with Trump slogans to the Deplorables, "$29.99 only to express your opinion!" "Only highest quality for Trump supporters!" Even nastier mind trick would actually be the Democrats doing that through a couple of non-partisan companies :D
Then again, the window of opportunity to do that was probably last month.
Posted by: Mika | October 23, 2016 at 10:07 AM
Tomi, you may want to correct the last sentence of the article "...WHY Trump will ACTUALLY win by 16 %..." I suppose that should've been Clinton?
Posted by: Mika | October 23, 2016 at 10:45 AM
HA! FAIL! Not only did you not predict how many TIMES it would happen, but you did not anticipate even THAT the Dumpster would SNIFF into the microphone at debates! Surrender your Jedi robe immediately.
Tomi:
My monitors, tvs and hair have thus far survived the Campaign of Crazy due to your forecasts for the election. Those forecasts stand upon the foundation of the accuracy of your numerous forecasts and analyses in the mobile market. I don't know how it would be measured or expressed in this case, but consistently hitting near the bullseye must be called "precision", eventually.
There's still room for an unforeseen asteroid impact, but maybe the world will survive the U.S. election again, this time. November 9 can't come soon enough for my nerves.
Posted by: grouch | October 23, 2016 at 11:14 AM
Im confused, I went to RCP polls today and it lists two tied one for trump and one for HRC?
Posted by: Halibut_ter | October 23, 2016 at 04:05 PM
1. Drumpf™ now has a newspaper endorsement: The Sheldon Adelson Review-Journal of Las Vegas. I am sure that the NY Post and Boston Herald will also endorse him.
2. 12, not 11 women.
3. What is up with the IBD polls? No comprendo.
Posted by: Dave Barnes | October 23, 2016 at 06:16 PM
@Dave Barnes
Halibut_ter has already asked the same question in the other thread here
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2016/10/donald-trump-loves-my-joke-book-with-1001-jokes-about-him-calls-it-best-book-ever-better-than-art-of.html
And Tomi has already answered his question in detail. It includes an explanation for the IBD poll.
Posted by: cornelius | October 23, 2016 at 06:43 PM
Why In The World Are Working Class White Women With Children Still Voting Republican?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/16/1583355/-Why-In-The-World-Are-Working-Class-White-Women-With-Children-Still-Voting-Republican
"What I find equally or perhaps more disturbing is, those female members of the senate such as Susan Collins and Kelly Ayotte as well as African-American Senator Tim Scott. And, their partners in crime, female Republican Governors like Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico, who have aided, abetted and given comfort to a Republican Party who, in the words of political historians, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein, “ continues to demonstrate that it is an insurgent force in our politics.”"
Posted by: Winter | October 23, 2016 at 08:12 PM
Even Karl thinks Trump cannot win anymore:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/karl-rove-donald-trump-cant-win_us_580cb4c1e4b000d0b15727dc
Posted by: Winter | October 23, 2016 at 08:29 PM
Southern Women Have Donald Trump Playing Defense In Red States
http://freakoutnation.com/2016/10/southern-women-have-donald-trump-playing-defense-in-red-states/
This seems a strange use of organizational resources in the waning days of the campaign. There’s no reason at all for anyone to stump for Trump in Alabama — certainly not when Donald needs to concentrate everything he has on winning ‘battleground’ states if he’s to have any chance of being president. As the least-likely state in the union to vote for Hillary Clinton, Alabama is no battleground.
Posted by: Winter | October 23, 2016 at 08:41 PM
Here are some numbers:
A Democratic Wave Is Building As Number Of Republicans Likely To Vote Drops By Nearly 20%
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/23/democratic-wave-coming-number-republicans-vote-drops-20.html
"The new ABC News/Washington Post has found that Donald Trump is threatening to depress Republican turnout by nearly 20 points as poll indicators point to a building Democratic wave. "
The nearly 20% drop is constructed as follows:
"The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October."
Based on:
New Polls Show That Clinton Has a Bigger Lead as Election Day Nears
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 08:05 AM
And more numbers and links to illustrate Tomi's arguments:
Latest Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Obama Popularity Soaring Just In Time For Election
According to Gallup, 57 percent of Americans believe the current president is doing a good job.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/22/latest-gallup-tracking-poll-shows-obama-popularity-soaring-time-election.html
Trump Roundly Mocked by Media for His Litigation-Heavy ‘Gettysburg Address’
"Dear American voters, In my first 100 days I will bring lawsuits against those who have criticized me. Best, Donald J Trump"
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/22/trump-roundly-mocked-media-gettysburg-address.html
Hillary Clinton May Have Just Won Arizona Thanks To Trump Surrogate Jan Brewer
Trump surrogate and former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer might have handed the state to Hillary Clinton by proclaiming that Trump will carry the state because Hispanics don't vote.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/21/hillary-clinton-won-arizona-trump-surrogate-jan-brewer.html
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 08:14 AM
And Trump might actually make America Great Again, but in ways he did not anticipate:
"Donald Trump may very well end making America great again by getting far right ideologues like Darrell Issa out of Congress. "
Rep. Darrell Issa Could Lose His Seat As Trump Takes Republican Criminals Down With Him
Donald Trump is accidentally making America great again in a way that he never intended as Republican Rep. Darrell Issa's House seat has been moved into the toss-up category.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/21/rep-darrell-issa-lose-seat-trump-takes-republican-criminals.html
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 08:17 AM
And this is why we do not see more tapes than the feline abuse tape:
TV contracts keep lid on stars' offensive remarks, insiders say: 'Tapes are deleted'
After the leak of Trump’s groping remarks, people in the television industry say stars are protected despite ‘horrifying’ and ‘abusive’ comments
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/oct/23/reality-tv-trump-groping-tape-contracts
Worse than the email scandal: Trump Has Offensive Tapes Deleted, Hidden from Courts
"It took 50 hours of Donald Trump to get one hour of TV after the filth was edited out"
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/10/23/worse-than-the-email-scandal-trump-has-offensive-tapes-delted/
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 08:24 AM
Funny!
Alt Right conspiracy image generator
http://boingboing.net/2016/10/22/alt-right-conspiracy-image-gen.html
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 01:16 PM
Winter:
First image I see at that boingboing link is Trump with the label "Brain Damage". Tomi has an image I sent 'way back which has that label generated by the tv itself.
Posted by: grouch | October 24, 2016 at 07:44 PM
The odds at Betfair for Hillary Clinton to win is still high at 1.21 vs 6 for Trump.
Tomi, do you think playing Hillary for 1.21 is a good valuebet?
You think Hillary will win by a margin of 10 % or more, but in your judgement, how LIKLEY is it that Trump actually could win?
Does Trump still have a 4-5 % chance to win in your opinion?
According to Betfair, the chance is 1/6 for a Trump victory. You dont think so? You dont think this could end with a surprise like the BREXIT?
Is there value in playing Hillary at 1.21?
Posted by: Paul | October 24, 2016 at 07:47 PM
Not only Trump becomes unhinged. This might be contageous:
WATCH: NRA’s “get out the vote” video devolves into a terrifying 6-minute depiction of a “post-freedom America” without Trump
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/24/watch-nras-get-out-the-vote-video-devolves-into-a-terrifying-6-minute-depiction-of-a-post-freedom-america-without-trump/
Posted by: Winter | October 24, 2016 at 08:53 PM
[Is The Telegraph credible?]
Exclusive investigation: Donald Trump faces foreign donor fundraising scandal
Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leading "independent" groups organising television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/24/exclusive-investigation-donald-trump-faces-foreign-donor-fundrai/
Posted by: grouch | October 25, 2016 at 03:12 AM