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« Donald Trump LOVES my joke book with 1001 jokes about him; calls it best book ever, better than Art of the Deal; better than the Bible | Main | In Tech News: Apple iPhone Quarterly Results Signal Yet Another Year of 15% Flat Market Share »

October 23, 2016



Wow, a very nice 3 cuppa. Well done.

16 % with 3 weeks to go, is a bold call.

If Texas goes blue, the long knives business in Houston and Dallas should be brisk.

11 accusers now, so I guess if it gets to 16 total you will be right.

Even Christie is backing off now.



I think you are right in saying that the Republicans do not get it. They still think this elections should have been theirs.

Near-final thoughts on a repulsive presidential campaign


I've sort of been wondering that there have been less attempts than I thought at milking off the Deplorables with merchandise superficially linked to Trump's campaign. Like a shop selling T-shirts with Trump slogans to the Deplorables, "$29.99 only to express your opinion!" "Only highest quality for Trump supporters!" Even nastier mind trick would actually be the Democrats doing that through a couple of non-partisan companies :D

Then again, the window of opportunity to do that was probably last month.


Tomi, you may want to correct the last sentence of the article "...WHY Trump will ACTUALLY win by 16 %..." I suppose that should've been Clinton?


HA! FAIL! Not only did you not predict how many TIMES it would happen, but you did not anticipate even THAT the Dumpster would SNIFF into the microphone at debates! Surrender your Jedi robe immediately.


My monitors, tvs and hair have thus far survived the Campaign of Crazy due to your forecasts for the election. Those forecasts stand upon the foundation of the accuracy of your numerous forecasts and analyses in the mobile market. I don't know how it would be measured or expressed in this case, but consistently hitting near the bullseye must be called "precision", eventually.

There's still room for an unforeseen asteroid impact, but maybe the world will survive the U.S. election again, this time. November 9 can't come soon enough for my nerves.


Im confused, I went to RCP polls today and it lists two tied one for trump and one for HRC?

Dave Barnes

1. Drumpf™ now has a newspaper endorsement: The Sheldon Adelson Review-Journal of Las Vegas. I am sure that the NY Post and Boston Herald will also endorse him.
2. 12, not 11 women.
3. What is up with the IBD polls? No comprendo.


@Dave Barnes
Halibut_ter has already asked the same question in the other thread here
And Tomi has already answered his question in detail. It includes an explanation for the IBD poll.


Why In The World Are Working Class White Women With Children Still Voting Republican?

"What I find equally or perhaps more disturbing is, those female members of the senate such as Susan Collins and Kelly Ayotte as well as African-American Senator Tim Scott. And, their partners in crime, female Republican Governors like Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico, who have aided, abetted and given comfort to a Republican Party who, in the words of political historians, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein, “ continues to demonstrate that it is an insurgent force in our politics.”"


Even Karl thinks Trump cannot win anymore:


Southern Women Have Donald Trump Playing Defense In Red States

This seems a strange use of organizational resources in the waning days of the campaign. There’s no reason at all for anyone to stump for Trump in Alabama — certainly not when Donald needs to concentrate everything he has on winning ‘battleground’ states if he’s to have any chance of being president. As the least-likely state in the union to vote for Hillary Clinton, Alabama is no battleground.


Here are some numbers:

A Democratic Wave Is Building As Number Of Republicans Likely To Vote Drops By Nearly 20%
"The new ABC News/Washington Post has found that Donald Trump is threatening to depress Republican turnout by nearly 20 points as poll indicators point to a building Democratic wave. "

The nearly 20% drop is constructed as follows:
"The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October."

Based on:
New Polls Show That Clinton Has a Bigger Lead as Election Day Nears


And more numbers and links to illustrate Tomi's arguments:

Latest Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Obama Popularity Soaring Just In Time For Election
According to Gallup, 57 percent of Americans believe the current president is doing a good job.

Trump Roundly Mocked by Media for His Litigation-Heavy ‘Gettysburg Address’
"Dear American voters, In my first 100 days I will bring lawsuits against those who have criticized me. Best, Donald J Trump"

Hillary Clinton May Have Just Won Arizona Thanks To Trump Surrogate Jan Brewer
Trump surrogate and former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer might have handed the state to Hillary Clinton by proclaiming that Trump will carry the state because Hispanics don't vote.


And Trump might actually make America Great Again, but in ways he did not anticipate:

"Donald Trump may very well end making America great again by getting far right ideologues like Darrell Issa out of Congress. "

Rep. Darrell Issa Could Lose His Seat As Trump Takes Republican Criminals Down With Him
Donald Trump is accidentally making America great again in a way that he never intended as Republican Rep. Darrell Issa's House seat has been moved into the toss-up category.


And this is why we do not see more tapes than the feline abuse tape:

TV contracts keep lid on stars' offensive remarks, insiders say: 'Tapes are deleted'
After the leak of Trump’s groping remarks, people in the television industry say stars are protected despite ‘horrifying’ and ‘abusive’ comments

Worse than the email scandal: Trump Has Offensive Tapes Deleted, Hidden from Courts
"It took 50 hours of Donald Trump to get one hour of TV after the filth was edited out"



Alt Right conspiracy image generator



First image I see at that boingboing link is Trump with the label "Brain Damage". Tomi has an image I sent 'way back which has that label generated by the tv itself.


The odds at Betfair for Hillary Clinton to win is still high at 1.21 vs 6 for Trump.

Tomi, do you think playing Hillary for 1.21 is a good valuebet?

You think Hillary will win by a margin of 10 % or more, but in your judgement, how LIKLEY is it that Trump actually could win?

Does Trump still have a 4-5 % chance to win in your opinion?

According to Betfair, the chance is 1/6 for a Trump victory. You dont think so? You dont think this could end with a surprise like the BREXIT?

Is there value in playing Hillary at 1.21?


Not only Trump becomes unhinged. This might be contageous:

WATCH: NRA’s “get out the vote” video devolves into a terrifying 6-minute depiction of a “post-freedom America” without Trump


[Is The Telegraph credible?]

Exclusive investigation: Donald Trump faces foreign donor fundraising scandal

Senior figures involved with the Great America PAC, one of the leading "independent" groups organising television advertisements and grassroots support for the Republican nominee, sought to channel $2 million from a Chinese donor into the campaign to elect the billionaire despite laws prohibiting donations from foreigners.

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

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Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

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