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October 18, 2016



I say 19% landslide for Hillary (that it Tomi's prediction + 3 %)!

Tomi T Ahonen

Thanks paul

and as they say, from your lips to God's ears haha. I wish you are right and I am wrong, because a 19% landslide would flip the House too... We'll see in 3 weeks. I honestly do hope you are right!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Dave Barnes

You have grande cojones.
I look forward to reading your post-election writing.


1. This election is unlike any other. It is very, very polarizing. That means that in general blue states go bluer and red states go redder (with the exception of Arizona and Georgia, mostly due to minorities). For this reason, a landslide victory for Clinton in the popular vote will not necessarily translate into proportional electoral votes. Even a 16% landslide won't flip Texas nor South Carolina. In a normal election they would flip. Not this year.
2. Clinton has already started allocating resources to Congress races. That means that she chose to not run up her numbers in order to get a friendly Congress. This may blunt her momentum. She will still win, but her chances of a landslide are decreasing.
3. We still have one more debate. If Trump performs reasonably well, like during the last debate and he doesn't do anything stupid (that's a big if) and no major event occurs, Clinton's numbers will slowly decline in time. It's only three weeks left, so the decline won't be enough for Trump to have a chance. But Clinton will play cautiously, will try to conserve her lead and won't be aggressive. So her numbers won't stay as high as they are now. Maybe a 16% landslide would occur if the election day was today. But in three weeks her numbers will slightly drop.
4. I think you overestimate the women vote not in terms of split but in terms of volume.

So my forecast at the moment is 7% victory for Clinton. Trump will win Ohio, Arizona and Iowa. Clinton will win North Carolina, Nevada and Florida. Clinton will get 322 electoral votes. The Democratic Party will get the majority in Senate.


Hillary is over prepared and over planned. So, I expect that she still has some October surprises up her sleeves.

She might decide to play it save during the debate. But the campaign could plant stories when needed.



I agree. I think Hillary has several aces up her sleeve, similar to Alicia Machado. She was probably prepared to use them but she chose not to, in order not to overlap the sex tape scandal.

In unrelated news, if you want to get a glimpse of Trump's behavior after the election, check his tweetstorm after the 2012 election.

"We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!"
"More reports of voting machines switching Romney votes to Obama. Pay close attention to the machines, don't let your vote be stolen"
"Lets fight like hell and stop this great and disgusting injustice! The world is laughing at us."
"This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!"


I agree with most of your diagnosis but don't believe the house will go blue till at least 18 and maybe 20. Hard shell R's still hold the gerrymander reins so it will be a slow go till the 20 census


We will see how it really was:

Of Course Michael Moore Has Been Making A Secret Film About Trump This Whole Time


I can't wait to watch all the documentaries of this election. Any documentary would have to be like a whole series with tens of episodes in order to cover every detail of this crazy election.

Tomi T Ahonen


Me too. But you know what? WE here on this blog have had a front-row seat, and we've had a deeper discussion of the full race than most political blogs. Those documentaries, while they will have stuff we'll learn, mostly the secret stuff, but the MAIN story, they will seem to us to be quite shallow and at times misleading - because we've seen the full story here. Its a bit like reading a Nokia or iPhone article haha. We can see immediately that gosh, that writer missed a major piece of the story. I betcha thats how we will feel with those documentaries. Some good tidbits but many things we will feel, that guy didn't catch the proper story haha...

Seriously, of the full race, the stuff we've done here in the comments is one of the best records of the race anywhere, much because of what you guys have brought in from your various vantage points and the links...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Oh PS cornelius

About the documentaries. A few weeks ago Steve Schmidt, the guy who came to rescue John McCain's collapsed campaign got him to recover, win the nomination and then ran it against Obama, he was on some news show, with the woman who worked with him (I forget her name, she's also a frequent pundit). Anyway, they are rarely on the same show but were this time. And they got to talking about their time with McCain. And I had always wondered exactly how accurate was that docudrama 'Game Change' that was about the Sarah Palin gambit for McCain. I think a great political movie, but I wondered how much of it was fictionalized and how much of it was real. They talked about the 'May I call you Joe' part and one of the most memorable items from the movie - that Sarah Palin was unable to remember to call Joe Biden 'Joe Biden'. She would instinctively call him Joe O'Biden. And the debate prep team got very worried because she'd look like the fool obviously. Its Joe Biden, not Joe O'Biden. And she's be told, and she'd be like a lost puppy and a few minutes later she'd again say Joe O'Biden.

So.. it seemed like too goofy to really be true. Well, haha, Steve Schmidt just confirmed that yes that part was true. Sarah Palin had that problem and they were worried she'd mess up in the debate. But nobody prepped her for the idea to then walk onto the stage and ASK Joe, 'Can I call you Joe'. And this in turn then messed up inside Joe Biden's head, what is this mind-game. But now Sarah Palin had all by herself just figured out an easy way out of never having to try to remember to say Joe BIDEN, not Joe O'Biden...

That kind of details - GOSH I want to hear EVERYTHING from inside the Trump Campaign. Can you imagine the infighting and bickering and second-guessing with the Lewandowski - Manafort - Conway / Bannon and possibly the interviewed but not hired replacement to Conway haha... Any sane competent politico inside Trump Team must be suicidal...

Tomi Ahonen :-)


I want someone to write a book about the election in a epic fantasy fashion.


Hmm. You had Bush staying in, missed Kasich's zombie campaign, and of course had the race going on until June 7 when it actually ended at Indiana. On the other side, well, Sanders was never *really* a threat, but it was a race, and it was more than a few states.
So trying to adjust for that leaves me exactly where I was. I think she'll win, and win well. I agree she'll pick up some points vs final polling on ground game. I don't think she'll crack +10, but high singles hopefully.

@cornelius, you're dead wrong. 2012 blue states have on average shifted .5 to Trump; 2012's red states have moved 8.5 to Clinton, and the swingers are 1.9 toward Clinton. It's a flattening plus movement towards Clinton, not polarisation within the pre-existing factions. [ ]



"Seriously, of the full race, the stuff we've done here in the comments is one of the best records of the race anywhere, much because of what you guys have brought in from your various vantage points and the links..."

I heartily agree. This has been the center for me. Without all the links posted here and the analysis of the articles, I'd be mostly in the dark and starving for information.

(Your number crunching and predictions I take mostly on faith, based on your past. My biggest brush with statistics was during a quantitative analysis course in chemistry. We never got very friendly).


How Trump's Casino Bankruptcies Screwed His Workers out of Millions in Retirement Savings
Trump made out like a bandit, but his employees paid the price.

Patrick Caldwell


Nothing the Donald does looks ever the same again:

SEE IT: Donald Trump kisses girl during Wisconsin rally


The elections are rigged, indeed. But we knew that already.

Indiana officials investigating possible voter registration tampering

For Indiana voters who may have been affected by the registration confusion, the secretary of state's office said they may still be eligible to vote on November 8 but can only do so through the county election offices or the state voting website.


Kelly Conway says it like it is:

Trump Campaign Manager Accidentally Calls Barack Obama A ‘Very Popular President’


Trump's future. He might be weeping all the way to the bank (to get new loans?)

Get ready for Donald Trump’s 4th Act

Donald J. Trump’s Television Future
He may lose the election. But how will Trump capitalize on his political celebrity? Here are four possibilities.

Let’s Say Trump Really Does Want a TV Network. Here’s What He’d Have to Do.

The price could be right, but Trump TV isn't likely to happen
A show:
"Most big brand advertisers would avoid it like the plague.
"Advertisers are not interested in paying a premium to reach that audience,

A TV channel
"For the middle to lower tier of cable networks right now, it probably wouldn't take $500 million.
Still, a TV channel is a massive infrastructure with costs that include equipment, studio spaces and employees,

If Trump decides to lean toward digital distribution, he can start his own networks for a fraction of the cost,
"It seems unTrump to go out and spend an enormously huge amount on distribution when he can have digital distribution,

"[Trump] is connecting with a lot of blue-collar conservatives in rural America who are unemployed or minimally employed. How much discretionary income do they have to go out of their way to pay another $10 every month to hear the same message over and over again?"


Trump has some help on social media:

New report shows a third of pro-Trump tweets are generated by bots
(note, a fifth of pro-Hillary tweets are from bots)

[Warning: Scientific Paper]
Bots and Automation over Twitter during the First U.S. Presiden
tial Debate

Bots are social media accounts that automate interaction with other users, and political bots have been particularly active on public policy issues, political crises, and elections. We collected data on bot activity using the major hashtags related to the U.S. Presidential debate. In this brief analysis we find that (1) Twitter traffic on pro-Trump hashtags was roughly double that of the pro-Clinton hashtags, (2) about one third of the pro-Trump twitter traffic was driven by bots and highly automated accounts, compared to one fifth of the pro-Clinton twitter traffic, (3) the significant rise of Twitter traffic around debate time is mostly from real users who generate original tweets using the more neutral hashtags. In short, Twitter is much more actively pro-Trump than pro-Clinton and more of the pro-Trump twitter traffic is driven by bots, but a significant number of (human) users still use Twitter for relatively neutral political expression in critical moments.

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