In Tech News: Apple iPhone Quarterly Results Signal Yet Another Year of 15% Flat Market Share

Apple has reported its quarterly sales for July-Oct calendar Quarter ie Q3, they sold 44.5 million iPhones. That is up 10% from Q2, and down 7% from the same quarter a year ago. This fluctuation is normal for Apple it has very strong seasonal variance so to understand Apple, look at its 12 month moving average sales and market share. We also now have 3 quarters reported for the calendar year 2016 and can say with pretty good confidence that the full year sales for Apple will end at around 15% market share, give or take a point. That gives us an interesting pattern. Let me show the past 8 years of Apple iPhone sales but blocking out two of the years:

iPhone Market Share of Smartphones
2009 . . . 14.6%
2010 . . . 15.9%
2011 . . . xx.x
2012 . . . xx.x
2013 . . . 15.5%
2014 . . . 14.9%
2015 . . . 16.1%
2016 . . . 15.0% (est)
Source TomiAhonen Consulting based on Apple and industry data, 26 Oct, 2016
This table may be freely shared

If you look at the above picture, you really need to come to grips, that there is not, and will never be, a global take-over of the smartphone space by Apple's iPhone. It has a VERY steady slice of the market. A healthy, profitable and loyal slice, but it is not growing nor is it shrinking. Apple finds one in seven smartphone owners eager to own their devices, and six in seven smartphone buyers will not buy an iPhone, either they don't want it, or can't afford it. Deal with this reality. 15%. That is not the world

Now, you ask, what were those two blocked out years. Thats when Apple's largest rival - in 2010 more than twice the size of Apple in total smartphones sold globally, yes more than twice as big as Apple AND profitable AND growing - in fact in year 2010, grew MORE than Apple (who was that, Samsung?) no that was Nokia. Yes. In year 2010, Nokia was more than twice as big as Apple. Nokia sold 103.6 million smartphones (last, corrected official Nokia number) while Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones.  Nokia's market share in year 2010 was 34.8% of all smartphones. And Nokia grew MORE than Apple in that year, and Nokia was the second most profitable phone maker on the planet (behind only Apple) and Nokia's revenues, unit sales and even PROFITS were GROWING by the end of that year. But in year 2011, idiot Nokia CEO, worst-CEO-in-Fortune 500 history - Stephen Elop - decided to bankrupt Nokia and suddenly Nokia sales collapsed. By 2013 Nokia's market share was 3.1%. A world-record collapse, literally, of any industry. Never before in any global industry of a Fortune 500 sized company, has a front-running company (ranked number 1) lost 9 out of 10 customers in three years and fallen out of the Top 5.

So in the above chart, years 2011 and 2012 had an anomaly 'windfall profit' for Apple, its sales momentarily on some quarters went over 20% and in annual sales had 19.1% and 19.5% market share those years. But that was not because Apple was somehow taking over the world - although many idiot American analysts told us so - it was because its biggest rival, Nokia was collapsing. And who came to take Nokia's place? Samsung was the 5th largest smartphone maker of 2010, and had 8.0% market share in 2010. When Nokia collapsed, Apple was not able to capitalize, but Samsung was. Samsung shot to become the world's largest smartphone maker and today sells about one in four or one in five smartphones around the world.

I think the 15% level is VERY interesting. Now, if you consider the long-term viability of that number, I want to show you another. The measure of market share among smartphones is a bit of an artificial measure. The consumer globally does buy a 'mobile' and doesn't really care if its 'smart' or dumb, .They will want a camera, color screen, internet, high speed access etc, but they want a mobile. And depending on price, they can even go without those features if its very basic communciation that they need. And there are basic phones that are not smartphones that have cameras, color screens, Facebook (without a separate internet browser) or even a full browser and Java-based apps, so you can load Angry Birds onto the phone. Something like Pokemon Go will need more tech and a proper smartphone but yes, many people still have phones that are less advanced than smartphones. And THAT market share, THAT is an interesting measure. Lets take the same 8 years, and see how Apple has fared in the larger 'mobile phone' market, where smartphones are obviously the top-end market.

iPhone Market Share of All Mobile Phones
2009 . . . . 2.0%
2010 . . . . 3.5%
2011 . . . . 6.0%
2012 . . . . 8.0%
2013 . . . . 8.5%
2014 . . . 10.9%
2015 . . . 12.0%
2016 . . . 12.0% (est)
Source TomiAhonen Consulting based on Apple and industry data, 26 Oct, 2016
This table may be freely shared
 
If you look at the big picture, there was no peak, there was steady growth into a niche, very roundly speaking about 10% of the market (a bit above that, 12% obviously) and now Apple has stabilized there. All that hype of Apple taking over the world is utterly sillly, if you look at THIS table above, and you understand why Samsung who has 20% of the TOTAL phone market, is the clear leader (they still sell modest numbers of dumb phones) and that the Apple premium price strategy is indeed similar to what Porsche or BMW or Mercedes Benz do in cars. Yes, you can have a very profitable business if you sell premium products but obviously you will never become the largest car-maker with that strategy. The largest car-maker will be one who caters to all price points and a vast array of products to suit all tastes, like Toyota, or GM or Volkswagen. Or how Apple will never become a larger (smart)phone maker than Samsung. Now, as Samsung struggles with exploding or slow-burning pants, Apple may well momentarily sell more smartphones this Christmas than Samsung (it will be close) but don't kid yourself into thinking the iPhone - or iOS - can ever take over the world. The correct analogy is the Mac vs the Windows PC world. Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi & Lenovo all on Google Android are to Apple what Dell, HP, Compaq & IBM/Lenovo, all on Windows, were to the Apple Mac in computers.

PS as I told you all that on this blog (for free, consistently on that message, from the day the iPhone launched nine years ago; and this blog still has no ads and no registration but more than 6 million lifetime visits). I've told you that same story, consisently for more than a decade. I said iPhone will grow but only to a large niche. I said the iOS App Store will not change that reality. The iPad will not change that reality. Apple Pay will not change that reality. The Apple Watch will not change that reality. The large-screen phablet-sized iPhones will not change that reality. And the cheaper 'iPhone Nano' models will not change that reality. Apple is niche market player, a large profitable niche but it only sells premium smartphones. The digital world belongs to Android and Google, not Apple and iOS.

That is also what all my Almanacs and my Forecast have told all smart people for years. So yeah. To see what the world of mobile looks like today - all the numbers you could ask for, see the 2016 edition of my TomiAhonen Almanac 2016.

And if you want to read the words of the most accurate forecaster in the world of mobile, my latest Forecast (up to year 2018) is here.

Comments

[Winter]

So it looks as if Apple will end up with ~15% of mobile sales? That is higher than I would have expected.

On the other hand, it also seems that the price pressure on (cheap) Android phones is less than I anticipated. This would depress smartphone sales and decelerate the conversion to smartphones.

What I do not understand is why Android handset do not do not drop in price as fast as before?

[Lullz]

Looking good. Apple is on the way for 15-20% share of the installed base of smartphones by 2020. Also looks like 85-90% of the phones sold by 2020 will be smartphones.

[Juan]

Tomi, I think your article is 100% accurate with a flawed conclusion:

"The digital world belongs to Android and Google, not Apple and iOS."

This is not true and the statement has many issues:

1. For the low end android installed base (60%, 70% I don´t know can only figure, and mean really low end no the Moto G style low end) having android on board means nothing, you properly mention the usage pattern (phone, SMS, facebook and light internet) for those devices...this usage pattern could be easily done by dumb phones. So for this installed base I´m not pretty sure its owners care about "android".

2. Funny thing, dumb phones should license Java but if they don´t use Google Services Android is free to use, so low end android phones are even cheaper than dumb phones looking at the license model.(and if those phones are not using google services...how relevant are they for Google??)

3. Android is a showcase and relevant (in the sense of trend setting) only in the high end spectrum, I don´t have official data but I´m pretty sure that if we talk about really flagship android devices on line with the iPhone we are talking pretty much about the same market share of the iphone (or less)

4. Look for the last Samsung flagship product introduction (S7, S7 Edge, Exploding Note 7), please tell me how many times Samsung executives spoke the word "android" (I have the data for the Note 7 = ZERO mention to Android). This fact tells you what about relevance??

5. Android is a commodity, is necessary and uncomfortable evil for manufactures to compete vs. iPhone/iOS, at the very same time that a company with muscle enough (Samsung?) find an alternative they will move away from Android...ANDROID FAITH IS TO BECOME THE DUMB PHONE OF THE FUTURE. (And/Or a nerdy thing like Linux)

6. Looking back (leaving a moment alone the Market Share Church) and knowing what you know about the Windows history, if you have the opportunity to travel back in time I don´t know...10 years; would you choose to be Dell, Lenovo, HP...or Apple?

7. The most funny thing about Android history is that even Google understood what you are missing:
GOOD HARDWARE (WITH ANDROID DENIAL SYNDROME) + POS HARDWARE WITHOUT GOOGLE SERVICES + A DATA MINING MODEL (NOT APPLICABLE ON THE VERY LOW END) = NOT ENOUGH TO BE RELEVANT

Pixel phones have relevance for Android/Google, and with luck they will have 2% of your beloved market share, the rest of the android universe is white noise.

[cornelius]

Awww, still no ear buds for the iSheep! You can't listen to music, but it just works because it is expensive. Nice.

Apple Says It Needs More Time Before New Ear Buds Are Ready

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/10/26/technology/ap-us-tec-apple-airpods-delayed.html

[Juan]

@ cornelius, do you realize that the real iSheep (Samsung, LG, Google, etc) will take the same path next year, or you don´t?

[cornelius]

@Juan Do you realize that with Android, the customer has CHOICE? With Android the customer decides what's best for him, as opposed to Apple where Tim is telling you what is good for you. And right now listening to music is bad.

[Pekka]

>>Do you realize that with Android, the customer has CHOICE?

No. There is not much choice.
Example1!: There is only big and huge flagship grade phones available. No iPhone SE or even iPhone 7 screen size flagships available (Sony's latest best 4,6" phone is not flagship grade phone anymore).
Example 2: No cameraphones available. Samsung do not make Zoom series anymore nor it offers any upgrades to the old phones. iPhone 7 plus might be the only phone with some optical zoom (fixed 2x) available.

[Jack Rabbit]

@cornelius
"Do you realize that with Android, the customer has CHOICE?"

Yes. If only iPhone users could use any Bluetooth headset from any Android maker or third party cheap vendor instead of Apple-branded ones... Wait - they can.
Well if only iPhone users could use any never-even-heard-of brand cases instead of Apple-branded ones... Wait - they can.
If only Android wear smart watches would support iPhone instead of being forced to use Apple Watch... Wait - they do.
If only iPhone users could use third party lightning-connector accessory chargers instead of Apple-branded ones... Wait - they can.
So... 3.5mm headphone jack? If only iPhone users could find 3rd party lightning-connector headsets where charger can be used at the same time instead of Apple-branded ones... Wait - they can. :D

[cornelius]

@Pekka
Your reply makes no sense so I can't answer that.

@Jack Rabbit
If only the iSheep could be milked for third party stuff instead of getting the headphones included in the price of the phone. Wait- they can be milked!

[E.Casais]

@Pekka

"iPhone 7 plus might be the only phone with some optical zoom (fixed 2x) available."

Wrong.

The Asus Zenfone Zoom ZX550/ZX551 provides 3x optical zoom. With full OIS (contrarily to the iPhone 7).

It is an Android phone. Released in December 2015 --- well before the iPhone 7.

Apple has been at the forefront of mobile innovation in many respects, but when it comes to cameras, it is barely playing catch up.

[Pekka]

>> The Asus Zenfone Zoom ZX550/ZX551 provides 3x optical zoom. With full OIS (contrarily to the iPhone 7).

It has nice camera, but otherwise it is not veery impressive (atom based :(). And it is not available in finland.

[RickO]

Watch out iSheep. BBK (Oppo,Vivo, One Plus) are coming to rain on your parade. I bet Q2 2017 BBK combined will push iPhones out of the Global number 2 position. Oppo, Vivo, Hauwei, Xiaomi, Lenovo and other Chinese brands (and possibly even Nokia and LG) with upper/mid spec phones will dominate 2017 - especially if Samsung loses too much sales momentum with the Note 7 disaster. At least Samsung should be able to recover more quickly but if something similar happened to the smaller Chinese brands that could be devastating for them. One brilliant phone can make a company - one dud phone can almost finish it.

[Huber]

@Juan: "do you realize that the real iSheep (Samsung, LG, Google, etc) will take the same path next year, or you don´t?"

Did you have a look at the flagship phones of these vendors lately?

- LG G5 and V20 have removable batteries, SD card slots and IR blasters (also OIS and an additional wide-angle camera)
- Samsung Galaxy S7 series has SD card slots
- Google never had IR blasters, SD card support or removable batteries, so there is nothing to see here

[Cold Spring]

Yes but you get to choose what you want, and not be locked into what Tim Cook or Jony Ive thinks you need! That's the whole point of Android. Ifanboys simply can't grasp this point! For example, for people who love using stylus with their phone, there is Note series, or even LG stylus series. For people who love huge screen, there is Mi Max with 6.4", or even Huawei Mate with 6.8" screen. For people who need phone with ruggedness and thermal imaging, there is Cat S60. For people who need molecularity, there Moto Z series and LG G5. The list goes on and on. Apple simply has no answer for the huge diversity and options availble in Android world. One other point is that Apple is one company, and iphone/IOS relies 100% on single company. This is a SPOF which Android does not have. For example, Samsung Note 7 debacle was terrible for Samsung, but for Android as whole, it was a non event. Had same battery issue occurred for iphone 7, that would have indeed been a proverbial "meteor strike" on planet of ifanboys! Over the long run, Apple has no hope of competing with Android, and even 10% global market share for iphone is likely too high for Apple to be able to maintain.

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Wayne Brady:

"And if you choose an iPhone... You are by definition choosing to be incompatible with the entire Android ecosystem."

Fixed that for you. :)

My thinking goes like this.

1. Peripherals will come to platform A that platform B will not be able to support.
2. Apps will come to platform A that platform B will not be able to support.
3. Some of these apps and peripherals will affect the choice of which platform you use.

These three are truly uncontroversial statements. It will happen. End of discussion.

We also know that many buyers get the platform with most support and users (why isn't consumers switching in droves to Macs and Linux systems, by many considered "superior", on the PC market for instance?), and that the more users a platform has, the bigger the market for apps, peripherals and eyeballs (ads).

This would lead to suggest that the mobile market will converge to the Android platform over time, since it is bigger. Size and growth drives market share, and when there is no growth there is only size...

But yes, the uneven market share distribution of Apple can explain quite a bit.

[Pekka]

When people are realising security risks of the non updated phone, they may switch to iPhone. iPhone is cheap to own.

Android smartphone from well known manufacturer is typically supported 18 to 24 months. For flagships you may get a bit longer support. iPhone SE costs about 470€ in finland and probably will have about 4 years of software support. If i buy 200€ android phone, which may get one big update (nougat, because it will ship with soon obsolete marshmallow), my yearly cost is higher than with the iPhone SE. If I choose better and more expensive phone difference will be even bigger. Even iPhone 7 is quite affordable, 775€ divided to 5 years is 155€/year. If I will buy android phone which costs more than 250€, it will be more expensive per year than iPhone 7.

[Huber]

@Pekka: "When people are realising security risks of the non updated phone, they may switch to iPhone. iPhone is cheap to own."

I hope you know the difference between Apple's updates and Android's updates.

- Google provides security updates for Android 4.4 and up (if the vendor publishes them is of course another question)
==> You don't need an upgrade to Nougat to get the latest security patches. Kitkat will do

- Then you get the Google Play Services updates (available for Android 2.3 and up)

- And finally the App updates themselves (Chrome, GMAIL, etc.)

This is completely different to Apple's approach (single update for OS updates, security patches and Apps like Safari, iTunes etc.)

Apart from this, the thruth is that most people don't give a damn about updates. They just buy the phone and use it.

_WE_ are talking about this because we're nerds/ enthusiasts. Just ask a few random guys and gals on the street which security level they have. Most of them won't ven know what this is or where they can look to see this.

[Pekka]

>> I hope you know the difference between Apple's updates and Android's updates.

I know. But I have several android phones, for example Galaxy S4A and K zoom. From summer 2013 and summer 2014. Both have not got any OS updates for a long time. Both have serious security flaws. I switched the SIM card from those phones to year 2012 iPhone 5, which runs the latest iOS 10 while it was shipped with iOS 6. galaxy K zoom was shipped with Kitkat and the latest version available is Kitkat. Android is too costly for me. It is way cheaper to use iPhone.

[Juan]

It´s funny how the android taliban speak about choices but clearly miss the point that the iphone is simply another choice, you can choose Nexus/Pixel, you can choose Samsung/LG/Motorola/etc, you can choose Apple...heck even you can choose a Windows Phone...

I cannot understand why for the android taliban if people choice the iPhone is such an offense for them...I don´t care what phone are you using.

My primary phone is an iPhone, however my secondary SIM (family/friends only) is on a 8801 Sirocco that I refuse to let go...may be you as an Android fan (shouting choices) could not understand why I use a 10 years old Nokia dumb phone in place of a $50 Android POS, but for me makes all the sense...choice is about this, using what you like best, choice is not use whatever is available on the Android world.

[Abdul Muis]

@Tomi

Sorry to hijack this Apple news with IDC.

IDC have release the Q3 2016 data
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41882816

Interesting point here is the BBK (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBK_Electronics) which own 4 phone brands (VIVO, OPPO, OnePlus & IMO) is number two if we add VIVO + OPPO (46.5 million phone) vs. Apple 45.5 million phone.

Furthermore, with Apple only have 12.5% market share in Q3 2016, it seems the target of reaching 15% for Apple whole 2016 is very high.