Final Debate Review: One President vs One Petulant Child

So the last Trump vs Hillary debate is done. It will be remembered as the debate where Trump put himself and his personal acceptance ahead of the opinion of 200 million voters. I think this will damage him more than any other third debate ever, and will bring on a wave of condemnation by Republicans and more un-endorsements. I think he will walk that statement back, soon, and may be forced to Apple-igize or non-apologize for it.

As to the debate, we saw the mellow Trump, on downers. He kept his cool most of the way but started to lose his concentration on not interrupting about half-way in, and did ever more of the interruptions towards the end. On the issues, Trump had worked on several points, delivered a few of those moderately well, in particular keeping to a more-or-less single talking point per response, and developing it, rather than mentioning every right-wing talking point. As it is, he didn't have much to add to what was out there and a few of his attacks had already been fact-checked to be false, so their practical value would now be even less. He still is, a businessman, and his best argumnents were near his business background, on jobs, on trade, on the economy and taxes. He was also doing good Republican talking points on the Supreme Court topic, something significantly more coherent than his previous ramblings. Many Republicans will like the development of his debating skills in those areas and probably all would agree, this was the best debate Trump has delivered. He has taken coaching and it shows. Were it not for the promise to not accept the verdict of American voters but rather substitute his own judgment instead, then he could get close to a tie out of the debate.

Hillary was polished, calm, played safe, needled 'Donald' many times but not very roughly - I loved the Emmys - and worked constantly on her favorables. At every point of the debate she was Presidential. I would think most independents and moderates and undecideds will give the debate to her, she should end up having won the debate. The Democrats will all love of her of course (but not all Republicans will like what they heard from Trump). There were very pointed barbs that probably stung deep, like the one in response to Trump sexual assault defenses, that women know exactly that type of behavior and the excuses. I think the most damaging of the attacks on the issues other than election fraud, was the Putin spying and whether Trump accepts its Russians doing it. The ending statement was just about pitch-perfect, she's clearly had time to prep for this possibility and Trump was totally not prepared for it, so he fumbled around for his talking points and I would guess if we time it, Hillary went 5 or 10 seconds over, and Trump is at least 10 seconds under the 60 seconds they were allocated.

I was expecting a big attack from Hillary on some surprise, and it wasn't there. She did some hits on Trump but on familiar ground, like buying Chinese steel and hiring undocumented workers and not showing taxes, but I was expecting a bombshell. It may be that she had one, but decided (or had pre-calculated it with her team already, which is more likely, now that I think of it) that as Trump declared himself above the decision of American voters, that should be the story of the debate, and let it stand, don't bring any other issues now. Hillary can still use her TV ads and surrogates to run hits if she has other stuff to use. This is probably an impact as big as the 'p*ssygate' tapes, and Hillary made a good, solid rebuke of it in her response. I believe Trump didn't know how big a hole he just dug for himself (as he typically never does understand whenever he does big campaign mistakes). I am certain this will be the issue the Hillary campaign will use to push their narrative after the debate.

We saw a President on stage, a poised, calm, fully prepared and sensible President. And we saw a petulant child, out of his depth, blaming everybody, telling lies, claiming he hadn't said things he's said, arguing with the moderator, and interrupting. I believe many Republicans who voted or said they endorse Trump, felt ashamed by this charade. Hillary played both edges well, pointing out in a planned piece that Trump took an op-ed against Reagan in 1987 (saying same stuff as he now accuses of Obama) and then spontaneously when Trump pulled Bernie in to hit Hillary (rather well this time) Hillary slammed Trump on Bernie with the quote that Bernie calls Trump the most dangerous person ever to run. Haha, don't try that cheap trick against a pro debater. The real polling will probably give this something like a 55/45 or 60/40 level decision, I don't expect a 2 to 1 level drubbing like the first debate, but Hillary won more voter opinions than Trump won. The online polling obviously is bogus, that'll show now that Trump won as every debate always said, as those online polls allow multiple votes and Putin's minions are powering those. Of the horse race polls, which will start to come out around Saturday/Sunday that will have polling done in the next 2 days or so, I expect when we get the first 4 or 5 polls, the race will have moved into Hillary's favor another point or maybe two. It will mostly be undecideds now breaking for Hillary, and not so much lost polling support of Trump. But the erosion of Trump's Republican base voter support will continue, and I believe the enthusiasm of Republican voters will diminish, somewhat, in the aftermath of this debate. They will be getting very demoralized, as Trump had to knock this out of the park, and he didn't even hit the baseball. Trump will now face unprecedented pressure from everybody to acknowledge in public that the voters get to decide who becomes President.

I do feel sorry for Hillary Clinton. She's that talented and prepared, she would have deserved a better Republican than this. Hopefully in 2020 at least the Republicans will nominate someone who is sane and coherent and prepared. This campaign for Hillary has been like trying to play billiards on a cruise ship that is in a vicious storm, constantly scrambling the balls on the billiard table. Still, its now done. We have 20 days left, people are already voting, and Hillary will run away with a landslide election victory. I am curious to see, will she reach neutral popularity in Gallup polling by election day. She just might.


ADDENDUM - After the Tweets

I again re-lived the whole debate via contemporary Twitter feed. I think there were 8 major moments, four on each side. Trump well, he managed to damage himself. He is struggling with the worst Hispanic level of support ever measured, and the debate was in Nevada. So Trump decided to speak Spanish and use the not-nice term 'hombre' It did not strike me, as a Finn, as a particularly onorous term, thinking more of some old Cowboy Western style movie. But plenty of Twitter users were offended. I think its safe to say, the Hispanics noticed.

The sexual assault groping issue went badly as probably could be expected. But that also went even worse for Trump than any sane person would say, in that he said he hasn't done anything wrong, because he even didn't apologize to Melania. Yeah. Good choice of word. Melania is already on videotape saying how Trump apologized. But now that issue - the most damaging tape from Trump's past so far, was given new life and will not help him with women.

Well, then there is of course the fact that Trump is having the worst gender gap ever measured. And how did he end the debate? By calling Hillary a nasty woman. Even a man gets it, that this is not how you win over women voters.

So lets switch gears. There were four moments from Hillary's side that could also be summarized by a single word. I'll start with the moderator slam. Energy. Hillary was so prepped for the Wikileaks quote, knowing they might use the one about her wanting open borders. And Chris Wallace did take the sleazy journalist short-cut (he is a Republican) to try to 'gotcha' Hillary with it. But she was prepped. So her answer, if you finished the sentence, I was talking about energy... OUCH. Yes, an open border not for PEOPLE to come across, but for USA to import and export electricity and natural gas etc between USA, Mexico and Canada, that makes sense (we have that in Europe for example between Finland, Sweden and Norway, selling electricity across the borders). That was just superb prep. And with that, except for the hardest of hard-core Hillary-haters, she took Wikileaks totally out of the picture, for the last 20 days. SMART and effective.

Then there was the word 'thirty'. Hillary loved it when Trump challeged her on not achieving anything in 30 years. A very precise but cutting rebuke, ending with Hillary helping catch Osama Bin Laden while Trump was doing celebrity Apprentice. Ouch. But a very good prepped speech on highlighting her strengths vs Trump's weaknesses.

The Trump bragged about his Hotel in Las Vegas. Hillary fast on her feet, and after Trump had been interrupting for an hour, hit him with 'made with Chinese steel' Bam! The word China stung Trump and will resonate especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, coal and steel country. 

But Hillary's hardest hit is the word puppet. That was very very smart and devastating. After Trump did a good job of attacking Hillary about how 'weak' she was and how much Putin didn't respect her, for Hillary to hit Trump, yeah, Putin wants Trump as his puppet. That probably would have been the killer line of the debate. Except for one word. I gave 4 from Hillary but only 3 from Trump. The most devastating word, if you summarize the whole debate into single words to describe its main moments.

Its suspense. That Trump said he won't commit to accepting the verdict of the American voters, and he will keep the nation in suspense. I don't think this will be allowed to stand. I do think this will be the final straw for many who were on the edge of their seats, should they stay with Trump or bail. And many opportunists who were on the Trump Train, but seeing it will be a total train-wreck, will now find their 'principled' way out. If he won't respect American voters, I can't endorse him anymore, and they will start to un-endorse him. I would expect a new wave of those un-endorsements now. So eight words to describe the 8 main moments. From Hillary its Energy, China, Nasty and Puppet. From Trump its Hombre, Apologize, Nasty and Suspense. That concludes our election season 2016 debate analysis blogs. Thank you for playing along.

If this debate left you with a really nasty taste in your mouth, a sick feeling in your stomach, and you want to try to wash it out with some laughter. I released my 13th book. Its 1001 Jokes about Donald Trump. Get it while he's still the alleged candidate, and laugh. At this point Laughter is the Best Medicine (I already emailed the Hillary Clinton campaign a shared licence complimentary copy of the book). Its 235 pages long, has 1,450 jokes in total, and only costs $4.99. I am showing 1 free page of jokes every day from now until election day to help promote the ebook, and the first 3 pages of jokes are already up for you to enjoy even if you don't buy the book. So lets laugh at Trump. See it here TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Comments

[Wayne Borean]

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[Winter]

"Is this what we are teaching our little boys?"

Sexism Is Out In The Open In The 2016 Campaign. That May Have Been Inevitable
http://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable

[Wayne Borean]

Over at Indian Country today, this columnist makes some interesting arguments about Montana, which could also apply to a lot of Red States.

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/10/23/montana-poll-reflects-normal-election-thats-not-case-166178

[Millard Filmore]

Breaking news: the polls are rigged, even the Wall Street Journal polls! Since Trump says so, it must be true.

...
Trump continued, "They call them dark polls. They are phony polls put out by phony media and I will tell you what. All of us are affected by this stuff and what they do is they try and suppress the vote, this way, people don't go out and vote, but we're winning this race. I really believe we're winning..."

The WSJ has never been considered a phony news organization even after Murdoch bought them. Sure, their editorial pages are horrific, but they skew hard right wing.
...

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/10/donald-trump-wsj-part-rigged-system

[Wayne Borean]

I've been saying that I expected Tomi's numbers to be on the low end, that this election will see a blow out of Biblical proportions. It might even be Supernova sized.

It all goes back to the demographics of the Religious element.

About 40% of the American population consider themselves to be Evangelicals.

2) About half of Evangelicals support Trump. This half is mostly what are considered 'Complementarians', i.e. women and men have separate roles. Women’s roles are as homemakers only.

3) 54% of Evangelicals are women. It is likely higher than this since women tend to be more religious than men, but I am using the general population percentage, since that choice is defensible.

4) Many Evangelical leaders have ignored the Access Hollywood video, possibly because they have never been grabbed by the pussy.

5) There is also a strong belief in some Evangelical circles that women who are sexually assaulted invited the assault by dressing immodestly.

So let's play with numbers. It appears that Trump's iron ceiling is about 40%. As Tomi has noted he will never score above that.

Evangelicals make up 40% of the population, Assume half of that number or 20% of the population support Trump.

54% of Evangelicals are women, so 27% percent of Trump supporters were Evangelical women at the start of September, which translates to 10.8 percent of the total population.

Some Evangelical women have started to speak out against Trump, including women in the Complimentarian sects. Some of these women are popular, and very well known. They are telling their stories, and the stories of their friends who have experienced Sexual Assault. We have no idea how many women this will peel away from Trump, but even before the Access Hollywood tape Trump's support among women in genera was abysmal.

Note that this might not be reflected in polling. Women in Complimentarian churches are expected to follow their husband's orders. If a pollster calls, they’re likely to toe the party line. In the privacy of the voting booth, many may revolt.

This is where I have to guess. I have no idea how many Evangelical women are saying one thing in public, but intending to do something different in private, so I'm going to show a series of guesses. All are based on pollsters not capturing this shift, which I believe they are not doing to this point at least.

Assumption - all Evangelical women vote Clinton. That boosts Clinton’s support by 10.8%!
Assumption - half of all Evangelical women vote Clinton. This boosts Clinton’s support by 5.4%.
Assumption - a quarter of all Evangelical women vote Clinton (I regard this as the most likely scenario), which boosts Clinton’s support by 2.7%.

For Evangelicals the major wedge issues have been LGBT rights (including Same-Sex marriage) and abortion. Since the Republican party has tried to be the Evangelical Christian Party, until now there has been no way to peel their votes away from the GOP.

But the Sexual Assault issue could damned well do that. I know a number of women who were assaulted. Apparently I’m a safe person to talk to, so I’ve heard some really horrendous stories. It is probable that most Evangelical men have not been hearing these stories. The number of Evangelical women coming forward is going to shock Evangelical men, many of whom believe that sexual assault only happens to atheists with their pussy and tits hanging out of their clothes, and deserve what happens to them because of the way they dress. Hearing that your wife, mother, aunt, daughter, etc. have been assaulted, and knowing that they are prim and proper Evangelical women is going to be earth shattering.

Tomi said 16%. With my numbers we have:

26.8%
21.4%
18.7% - What I think is most likely at this time.

If I am right, and Clinton is 18.7% ahead of Trump, the odds of down ballot races being impacted are very high, and we are certain to see the Senate go Democrat. Anything higher than that is likely to cause the House to go Democrat.

Read the link, and leave your comments. I’m curious to see what everyone else can dig up.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/10/beth-moore-the-christian-women-speaking-out-about-trump-s-bad-news.html

[Wayne Borean]

As to the Religious nature of the American electorate, most countries have a religious element to politics. This is nothing unusual. What is unusual is how anti-science the American religious groups are. Below is a list of articles which illustrate how the more radical parts of that demographic think.

Pat Robertson is apparently upset that bookies are discounting his pal Donald Trump
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-robertson-has-a-warning-for-the-bookies-in-vegas-bet-against-trump-and-youll-lose-your-shirt/

Alex Jones of InfoWars thinks that a third of World population will die if Trump looses.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/alex-jones-if-trump-loses-a-world-war-will-kill-one-third-of-the-worlds-population/

As per my comment prior about the likely rebellion of Evangelical women, Evangelical leaders appear upset that rank and file Evangelicals aren't so excited about Donald Trump. Maybe this is a way of saying that grabbing women by the pussy is fine in the 21st Century....
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/right-wing-leaders-warn-vote-trump-or-face-a-hillary-clinton-police-state/

A guy who thinks he will be murdered if Hillary Clinton is elected President.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/dave-daubenmire-warns-that-hell-be-murdered-if-hillary-clinton-becomes-president/

Alex Jones again. He claims Hillary Clinton is a demon who smells like rotting meat.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/alex-jones-hillary-clinton-is-a-damn-demon-who-smells-like-rotting-meat/

Another Evangelical leader who is upset that the rank and file is being disobedient.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/tony-perkins-unbiblical-for-christians-to-criticize-trump-backers-if-they-werent-involved-in-the-primaries/

The New World Order just had to be involved.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/oak-initiative-trumps-grab-video-leaked-to-protect-new-world-order-from-gods-alpha-male/

Another scare story. Vote in Trump, or face a Hillary Clinton police state.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/right-wing-leaders-warn-vote-trump-or-face-a-hillary-clinton-police-state/

Christians Should Have Backed Clarence Thomas Even If They Believed Anita Hill
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/gary-bauer-christians-should-have-backed-clarence-thomas-even-if-they-believed-anita-hill/

Phyllis Schlafly may be dead, but her Sons are Carrying Their Mother’s Torch For Trump
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/phyllis-schlaflys-sons-carrying-their-mothers-torch-for-trump/

This is from before the last debate. Michael Savage Urges Trump To Talk About Hillary’s Lesbian Lovers, of which there is no proof of any sort that Hillary Clinton ever had a lesbian lover. But that fits with the anti-LGBT and anti-Democrat biases of this demographic.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/michael-savage-urges-trump-to-talk-about-hillarys-lesbian-lovers/

Stop the WAR ON MEN!
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/jesse-lee-peterson-leads-protest-telling-trump-accusers-to-stop-the-war-on-men/

A guy who says that if he dies, Hillary Clinton did it.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/gordon-klingenschmitt-wants-people-to-know-that-if-he-suddenly-dies-hillary-clinton-probably-did-it/

Another guy who says he'll be murdered if Hillary Clinton becomes President.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/dave-daubenmire-warns-that-hell-be-murdered-if-hillary-clinton-becomes-president/

Donald Trump will be holding a rally at a university founded by Pat Robertson (700 Club)
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/donald-trump-to-court-pat-robertsonagain/

A chap who was praying that God would bring Hillary Clinton down and confuse her mind. He should ask for a refund.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/rick-wiles-im-praying-for-god-to-bring-hillary-clinton-down-and-confuse-her-mind/

And then there is Ann Coulter, who claims that immigrants come from societies where every single level of society is criminal...
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/ann-coulter-immigrants-come-from-cultures-where-every-single-level-of-society-is-criminal/

The WAR on MEN rears its ugly head again.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-buchanan-the-system-is-rigged-against-white-men/

Remember Jim Bakker? He thinks that Obama Sounds Like ‘The Representative For Antichrist’
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/jim-bakker-obama-sounds-like-the-representative-for-antichrist/

Here we've got a guy who thinks that the elites will manufacture a 'lone wolf attack' on Trump. That Trump is part of the elites he ignores.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/michael-snyder-liberal-elites-may-manufacture-lone-wolf-attack-on-trump/

David Barton, a 'Historian' who has no scholastic background in history.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/how-david-barton-earned-his-doctorate/

I'm sure you get the basic picture. Most of these people seem to be delusional at best. They are trying to peddle fear, and it isn't working, which is causing them to start to panic. By November 8th they should be really desperate.

[Winter]

About double standards:

If Hillary Clinton Groped Men

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/opinion/sunday/if-hillary-clinton-groped-men.html

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Wayne

Great pair of comments and yeah, its a weird part of the electorate (not only in the USA). I always learn, and this political season one of the great things was to see how 'unreligious' the Evangelical voter group is. I was under the illusion that the moment they - the Evangelicals - understood Trump was a serial adulterer and chronic liar, he'd be more unelectable as Rudy Giuliani to that group. Obviously I was wrong and this has been a great lesson. The discussions here in the comments have been enlightening (including your inputs obviously). Also those articles you linked to about the bizarre battle against science, its also mystifying.

What would be an interesting thought experiment is if an Evangelical voter was exposed to anti-Capitalistic ECONOMIC theory. Would they still remain 'Republicans' haha. Jesus Christ was the planet's first socialist, he wanted to share, he wanted the worst and poorest to be taken care of, inspite of them not necessarily 'pulling their weight' in the economy and of course Jesus Christ was also supportive of the government's right to collect taxes. So the Evangelicals are willing to suspend OTHER science from geology onwards, the life of the planet, history carved into stone for millions of years, then why not suspend far less precise theories like those of economics haha... The views of Bernie Sanders's politics are FAR closer to the PHILOSOPHY of the New Testament and Jesus Christ, than those of any other politician currently running on either side of the aisle. Obviously many Evangelicals do believe literally in the Bible and also take literally the Old Testament, haha, so yeah, maybe my argument falls down right there...

But the women of Evangelicals yeah, I think the Exit Polls will show PARTLY that effect, but I would guess that even the Exit Polls will under-count the true Evangelical female voter leakage out from Trump support, because some will be so ashamed of going against their own kind, a kind of betrayal, that they will keep it a very private secret, and not even admit to an Exit poll interviewer right after the vote. I would guess, the actual vote final count, and the Exit Poll final outcome - will quarrel by a few points, ie the Exit Poll could say its a 14% election result, and by the end of the night we see the TV networks reporting its in reality a 15% election result, and when the final tally is reported a few days after the election, its found to have been a 16% election result. And hidden in those last few percent, are exactly the type of voters you Wayne identified, women who will say they will vote for the Republican but end up not voting for Trump anyway, and vote for Hillary instead. And some will be so ashamed or secretive about it, they won't even admit it to the Exit Pollsters.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

@Tomi,

More like those women can't admit it. I have no idea how exit polling is done in the USA, but if the women's husband is beside her she will NOT admit she voted for Demon Hillary.

As to why Evangelicals support Trump...

Abortion and LBGT rights. Demon Hillary is going to destroy American families. Twice divorced, thrice married, twenty-five times accused of sexual assault serial liar Baby Christian Donald Trump won't.

Then there's the First Nations vote!

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/10/23/montana-poll-reflects-normal-election-thats-not-case-166178

[twinsdad9901]

Amazing. Trump the genius.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/25/trump-cuts-off-fundraising-events-for-republican-party.html

[Wayne Borean]

Where, oh where has my GOP gone?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/my-former-republican-party-1477353852?tesla=y

[Wayne Borean]

Did you hear about the guy who threatened the LA Islamic Center? Guess what - his sister used to work for Donald Trump Jr.

http://tonyortega.org/2016/10/26/sister-of-la-scientologist-arrested-for-muslim-threats-was-don-trump-jrs-executive-assistant/

[Wayne Borean]

The GOP has long had a racist wing, though it was fairly well hidden until this year. Here's an example.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/billings-candidate-accused-of-racist-remarks/article_d57752fe-95c6-5cb7-8133-1a2b84705756.html

[Wayne Borean]

And someone wrote an article about how men are fairly unaware of who their wives are going to vote for. This was dated Oct. 10, and there has probably been a further swing since then.

http://theweek.com/speedreads/654283/probably-dont-know-who-wife-voting

[Tester]

Don't you think that the pollsters know about these effects and try to factor them in somehow? These people are professionals and certainly know about how polls may be skewed depending on the environment it's being taken in.

That goes both ways, of course, so in the end it may just even itself out.

As much as there may be a female surge, I think there actually are also some people who would not admit voting for Trump.