My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Countdown to the End of Trump: 3 Weeks to Go - 1 more debate left, Hillary up by 7.5% | Main | Donald Trump LOVES my joke book with 1001 jokes about him; calls it best book ever, better than Art of the Deal; better than the Bible »

October 20, 2016

Comments

grouch

Tomi:

Read that Vox article and you'll see that this is far from over. The ripple effects of that orange bastard are going to plague us for at least a generation.

grouch

Winter:

Is there a positive feedback loop going on between Donald and Bannon? The crazy seems to be growing.

Winter

@grouch
"Is there a positive feedback loop going on between Donald and Bannon? The crazy seems to be growing."

This has been discussed before. Trump's opinion is what the last person he spoke to said. And it seems he only speaks with Bannon nowadays.

Winter

About Bannon as the only non-family voice left at Trump Headquarters:

Donald Trump and his advisor Roger Ailes are no longer on speaking terms
https://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/donald-trump-and-roger-ailes-speaking-terms/26368/

Winter

Probably not helpful:

Donald Trump Finally Wins a Newspaper Endorsement – From the KKK
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/21/donald-trump-finally-wins-newspaper-endorsement-kkk.html

Winter

This is a summary of Trump's campaign:

Donald Trump vs. America
He’s no longer running against Hillary Clinton. He’s running against our democracy itself.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/donald_trump_vs_american_democracy.html

Winter

Important planning a way out for the losing side:

How to Build an Exit Ramp for Trump Supporters
https://hbr.org/2016/10/how-to-build-an-exit-ramp-for-trump-supporters

If you want people to change course, you have to create an “exit ramp” for them. This entails creating the space and safety they need to acknowledge and pursue a better way forward. Here’s how you might go about doing that when the situation is emotionally or ideologically charged.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grouch & Winter

On Bannon's role. I think yeah the politically smartest/most competent had left already Chris Christie bailed a while ago, Senator Sessions left, Newt Gingrich seems to have had an argument that kicked him out (or walked out) and Kellyanne Conway was never an equal in that boys' club but now is definitely no more in charge. Roger Ailes left in the troubles with debate prep. So its Grumpiest Old Man, Rudy Giuliani and Trump and Bannon. And I would guess Bannon getting most of Trump's attention. This is all getting far more 'Breitbart propaganda' as the message even compared to previous stages of Trump (so where are we now, Trump 6.0?) and the feuding with the Republican party is a major part of Breitbart and Bannon. He hates Paul Ryan and the traditional leadership of the party. The departure of the mid-level guy, whatever-his-name-was, the one from Manafort's group, who was doing liaison with the GOP, that further severs what bridges may have been left.

So on the one hand, they KNOW they've lost the election. So they need to prepare a good spin on 'it was not the fault of Trump' haha. Try to skapegoat the party and its disloyalty to Trump as much as possible. And claim a rigged system, the media is in bed with Hillary and there are dead people voting and the whole election is a farce.

Then also, try to set up his exit strategy. The TV network has a lot of gossip around it. So what do we see with that? Several media people who were getting onboard with Trump, have moved away from him. I'm thinking Hugh Hewitt and the Morning Joe team specifically. They could have been in talks to join Trump and now with Trump struggling, Trump may be having a hard time with his business plan, and that talent sees how Trump won't pay if he feels some grudge, so if they depart good jobs, they will insist on pretty solid employment contracts with pretty good sign-up bonuses haha, just in case Trump crashes or decides not to pay.

The more Trump deals from a position of weakness, his brand value collapsing, his national polling support collapsing etc, the less he will be able to bargain with on setting up his network. And there are growing boycotts which will scare away many major advertisers who might have been very positive about a Trump TV network idea when first floated very privately in say May or June when Trump was riding high in the polls and looked like he might win the election, or if not, that he'd get to 48% of the national vote anyway.

So Trump who doesn't listen to advice much anyway, and who is allergic to any honest critical appraisal of HIS work/contribution/performance - now has had most who know, and who could have been honest with Trump, long since departed (and several of them, Christie & Newt in particular, have made comments that signal they are preparing the road to be able to say, I was also critical of Trump in public, BEFORE the election). Meanwhile who remain are very prone to vicious attacks and nastiness. Oh and a 'run-the-clock-out' Conway collecting her massive paycheck to do the PR statements to try to spin Trump's latest mistakes, and show up at TV shows to sell pure bullshit.

There was an interesting Tweet about Kellyanne responding to a not-very-nice joke from Hillary at the Al Smith dinner. She seemed very pleased and retweeted it. As if she was happy to be called out by Hillary. The person who Tweeted the comment about this behavior, said that Conway was sending a signal to Trump, that if Trump doesn't pay up, she will bolt, and the Democrats will take her onboard... Interesting view but yeah, in a very hard-nosed New York mind-set where 'hello' follows immediately with 'I will sue you', gosh I do remember that type of really nasty hardnosed negotiation. And that makes sense. She feels the pressure and Trump drops hints that he might stop her paycheck.. She now has leverage and wants to be sure her salary comes in this month haha. She probably can guess that in November the campaign will be bankrupt..

Oh, and yet another wrinkle. A HUGE expense out of the campaign is the commision/sales expense to the fund-raising emails. It may be a money-laundering scam. Some say its way too expensive and a red flag. Trump may have a deal with that company, that they overcharge Trump every month, and then Trump privately splits that money with that company. This way Trump can channel a dozen million dollars out of the campaign - donations from 'supporters' - into his own pocket. And then to pay 2 million dollars as his personal investment donation into the campaign as a small fraction of that, to keep everybody thinking that Trump is honestly investing in this, so it can't be a scam...

Anyway, it will be a mess and yeah, we are gonna see the aftermath that can be really nasty too. The bigger Trump's loss is the worse it will be for him and the less relevant he can be. If its a 16 point loss, then he will be in a far far worse state than say Sarah Palin after 2008. But he is building a cult following and serving it well, many will stay brainwashed for years. Most of all, its a shame for them. They've been conned and they don't know it.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

@Winter
Very nice article, a bit too nice for my taste. I've been preparing my troll comments for Breitbart and Infowars for a while now. I will not give up the pleasure of trolling them after the election day. I will post my troll ideas here after the election and I would like encourage everyone here to go to Breitbart and Infowars and other racist websites and troll hard for a few days. After that, I guess it's OK to follow the advice from your article.

Winter

@cornelius:
Breitbart and Infowars are beyond redemption. Just as anyone who sticks with them after 8 November.

Winter

A nice illustration of what we already know:

Richard Branson Recalls ‘Bizarre’ Lunch With Revenge-Obsessed Trump
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_580a45b4e4b000d0b15658d8

Wayne Borean


I love comics!

http://www.alternet.org/comics/trumps-word-salad

PaulEdward79

Data analysis of the differences between Trump and Clinton supporters on twitter. (Tomi, you should enjoy it being a huge twitter user yourself. :P )

http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2016/we-the-tweeple

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Ok, there it is. Politico runs story that in early voting in several states, there is a surge of female voters. The part of the election that I said would come and would guarantee a double-digit victory for Hillary, that would not be visible in normal polling... That I warned about in 2014 in my first blog about Hillary becoming President, and in 2015 during the early primary race, and in the first official forecast for this pairing of candidates, that I did in March of 2016. And in the months since, with the Conventions and now the debates. Even as polls have counted an even race at times, even momentarily some polls showed a slight Trump lead, I said its a double-digit landslide .. because of the surge in women voters, which would not be visible in normal polling.

That is now happening. And I have not seen articles that deal with this specific female surge aspect until now at Politico (there may have been, but I certainly have not seen any; and I mean articles that separate a woman voter SURGE from the obvious increased gender gap). If the rival had not been Trump, and we had had a more normal sane election season, then the pundits would have gotten to this aspect many months ago. Now it got lost in the daily nonsense of Trumpisms. But one of the biggest reasons Hillary won in 2016 was the SURGE in female voters, if not THE biggest reason. And even if we take out Trump completely, simply a generic Republican male candidate would have lost due to this surge that was destined to show up for the first female President. And that was a disaster the Republicans had prepared years before Trump from 'Binders full of women' to 'transvaginal probes' to Congressional hearings about women where only men were allowed to testify. This is what the GOP built. The surge was there, just waiting for the first female President to be nominated. This election will be an epic landslide.

Time for a brief happy-dance about this blog delivering remarkably valuable foresight, with relevant deep insight, that nobody else talked about. Not back then, not consistently through the election; and here we are. YOU guys KNEW this, haha. You've had this discussion with me, you will not be surprised.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Oh PS

Funny anecdotal story about the election. The Democrats have their Get-Out-The-Vote project fully under way. Its vastly bigger than anything the Republican party can muster to run against it, being underfunded and divided. So a Democrat GOTV worker reported on how some families behave. Came to the door of a known Republican house. The door was opened by the husband. When asked to talk to he wife, the HUSBAND said his wife was voting for Trump and then told the worker to go away. What happened next, was that the WIFE called the worker on the mobile phone and said, actually she was in the house, heard what happened, and wanted to call and say, she'll be voting for Hillary.

There are tons of the stories of the internal tensions, if a family is divided, its invariably that the husband votes for Trump and the wife for Hillary. And its interesting, the Democratic GOTV effort is going to TALK TO WIVES OF REPUBLICANS to discuss the vote for Hillary... How wicked is that? And yes, they leave their materials, they have phone numbers, they run local ads, they end up talking at least once to every voter who is registered, and marking down their vote preference - and if they don't get to talk personally to the wife... haha... the Hillary GOTV person no doubt has the markings on that visit, that 'talked to husband, did not talk to wife' and that WIFE WILL REMAIN A TARGET. They'll try to talk to her again, and try again, in person, via phone, via email, via Facebook, via any means, and if they don't get to talk to her in person, they'll keep targeting this particular house as one that has a plausible Hillary-voter Wife trapped inside haha..

How smart, how incredibly precise, and how revealing. The husband thinks he can bully the story and he can force his wife to vote for Trump and she knows she has the sanctity of the secret ballot where she can have her revenge.

And imagine how powerful the GOTV machine for Hillary is, if it has every single household catalogued so precisely, they know the Republican voters and will still go in and talk to those that are households of married couples to see if the wife (or possibly voting-aged kids) will vote for Hillary instead..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

Even the rallies of The Donald are not the same anymore. They know they are losing, and it shows:

Donald Trump is in a funk: Bitter, hoarse and pondering, 'If I lose. . .'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-is-in-a-funk-bitter-hoarse-and-pondering-if-i-lose/2016/10/21/d944b518-97a3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

grouch

‘The Economist’ Sums Up The U.S. Election With The Perfect Graphic

https://www.good.is/articles/trumps-speaks-for-the-wrong-end-of-the-elephant

Winter

It has become difficult to separate comedy from serious argument:

He's With Her: Inside Paul Ryan's Months-Long Campaign to Elect Hillary Clinton President
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/21/hes-with-her-inside-paul-ryans-months-long-campaign-to-elect-hillary-clinton-president/

Wayne Borean


Tomi,

Have you heard of 30 Songs in 30 Days? Guess what the songs are about...

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/brilliant-new-aimee-mann-song-surprising-reason-trump-may-have-started-his-campaign

Wayne Borean


"Thank you for your financial help, your patriotism, and your extreme gullibility. Suckers like you are why we don’t have to promise anything more specific than Make America Great Again."

https://extranewsfeed.com/in-february-i-subscribed-to-all-the-presidential-candidates-email-lists-d9b10ca77b4d#.pb97f62oy

The comments to this entry are closed.

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati