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« Countdown to the End of Trump: 3 Weeks to Go - 1 more debate left, Hillary up by 7.5% | Main | Donald Trump LOVES my joke book with 1001 jokes about him; calls it best book ever, better than Art of the Deal; better than the Bible »

October 20, 2016

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grouch

If Hillary decides 4 years is enough (she's earned that), would Michelle Obama step up in 2020? That would be about the time she will be facing an empty nest.

grouch

This thing is getting long:

An Exhaustive List of the Allegations Women Have Made Against Donald Trump

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/10/all-the-women-accusing-trump-of-rape-sexual-assault.html

Millard Filmore

Apparently there is a big dinner with both Hillary and Trump in attendance. From the comments in this link, Donald is losing a few more states with his speaking remarks.

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2016/10/20/alfred-e-smith-memorial-foundation-dinner-live-feed-its-all-good-fun-until/

Winter

For all their woes and faults, the "media" can still make sense of news:

In the debates, Hillary Clinton showed exactly why she should be president
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/its-not-that-trump-lost-the-debates-its-that-clinton-won-them/2016/10/20/23b49c74-96f7-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html

Perhaps most important, she has kept her rhetoric civil and inclusive, in the face of an opponent bent on trashing the norms of democratic discourse. This is no mere style point. It is in a way substantive too, because this election has taken on importance beyond the already-high stakes for national policy; it has turned into a trial of our democratic culture. Certainly, Ms. Clinton has found ways to needle her opponent. But by preparing for the debates, using them to advance rational arguments and refraining from responding in kind to Mr. Trump’s lowest blows, Ms. Clinton has exemplified what’s still good about that culture. In fact, you might say she has reminded people of what’s good about “establishment” politicians — about people who understand that it takes skill to survive and advance their causes in the public square, and who make it their business to polish those skills.

grouch

Millard Filmore:

That was mentioned on Washington Post, but they don't give much info.

The following article has the idiotic reverse chronology format, but contains a tidbit of Trump's September expenditures:

The Latest: Trump, Clinton 1 seat apart at Al Smith dinner

"Trump showered his longtime digital firm Giles-Parscale with more than $20 million in September, nearly as much as it had been paid the entire rest of the campaign."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-latest-twitter-says-most-debate-tweets-were-about-trump/2016/10/20/8108f280-96bb-11e6-9cae-2a3574e296a6_story.html

Hoping Tomi digs up more campaign finance data. I'm really curious about how much Trump's been feeding himself from donations.


grouch

This one's heartbreaking:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/20/1584899/-After-the-debate-a-Utah-woman-stepped-up-to-share-her-late-term-abortion-story-and-it-s-going-viral

grouch

Another dailykos:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/19/1584737/-Chris-Wallace-did-everything-he-could-to-help-Trump-and-still-couldn-t

grouch

Oops. I was wrong; the Washington Post does have some more info on the Al Smith dinner:

Donald Trump just turned a charity dinner into a screed against Hillary Clinton

“Last night, I called Hillary a nasty woman, but this stuff is all relative. After listening to Hillary rattle on and on and on, I don’t think so badly of Rosie O’Donnell anymore.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/20/donald-trump-just-turned-a-charity-dinner-into-a-screed-against-hillary-clinton/

Pauledward79

Interesting take on the debate regarding body language.

http://www.attn.com/stories/12195/media-strategist-joel-silberman-weighs-candidates-body-language-third-presidential

grouch

theguardian's write-up of the Al Smith dinner:

Trump booed for calling Clinton 'corrupt' as bipartisan dinner turns sour

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/21/trump-booed-for-calling-clinton-corrupt-as-bipartisan-dinner-turns-sour

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

I was thinking about Trump and the Al Smith dinner. Its the Catholic charity event a little before the election, where most election years, the Presidential candidates both show up, and do a joke-filled speech, attacking each other, the rich people of the audience and usually also themselves. We did get Trump and Hillary shaking hands which they bizarrely did not do either at the start, nor the end of the third debate. Previously in the second debate, they didn't shake hands in the beginning but did at the end. In the first debate they did as all previous Presidential candidates had done, and shook hands at the beginning and end.

At the Al Smith dinner speech, Trump was booed. Hillary shined. Trump ended a bit morosely and somewhat bitterly in the end (plus he delivered a pretty funny joke, but at the expense of Melania, in attendance, which will not endear him any further with any women, I would think, by making the wife the punching bag when its the custom at this event, that you do SELF-deprecating humor and attack your rival). Hillary by contrast, ended on a very uplifting, quite religious theme to her speech. One that no doubt was also designed to show the contrast for any religious voters, that Hillary is a religious woman who has lived that part of her life too and knows what it means (where Trump clearly does not).

Anyway, the demeanor. Hillary at the debate yesterday, AFTER the debate, very visibly, and again today at the Al Smith dinner, was beaming. She KNOWS she has won the election already. Yes, the Democrats have to be brought out to the polls and she needs a big wave to get the other victories in the Senate and possibly the House, but Hillary has worked to become President for 30 years. She married Bill Clinton and pushed him to become the Governor of Arkansas just so SHE could become President (by making Bill do that first). She knows everything there is to know about US campaigning and politics and knows, she has won this. Plus she has the internal data machine that tells her its been won. Plus she has the most powerful fund-raising machine in history, still churning out several million dollars per day in fresh money, and they can see that Trump's modest fund-raising ability is nearly stalling. Where Hillary expands the investments from her bank account, Trump is cutting down.

Hillary appears like she has this covered, she's won this, this is going all exactly to plan and even ahead of where she expected to be. There is a totally confident winner when we see her.

Then there is Trump. During the debate yesterday he was subdued, that was maybe his drugs, if he took his 'down' pills, and the severe coaching he had received not to be his normal bombastic self. That wore off, he became more ridiculous towards the end with the interruptions etc, but still, he knew he was losing it. The audience laughed at him when he claimed nobody respects women more than him. And we know how much Trump needs the audience and gets confused if an audience turns on him. At the end of the debate, he was angry and bitter and all of his facial expressions and movements and body language yelled out 'I lost this debate'. He KNOWS he lost it. When Hillary went to mingle with the crowd and take selfies and shake hands, Trump first waited on the stage and his family came to rescue him, and then he soon departed. Looking very downcast.

The Trump at the Al Smith dinner did not seem confident anymore. It was like someone had REALLY spanked him and told him to behave, and he put on a forced smile and read his prepared jokes and then tried to smile through Hillary's jokes (She did a good job laughing at Trump's jokes).

The crowd at his event earlier today was significantly smaller than his usual crowds and nowhere near capacity. He had that one ex-Manafort political liaison manager quit on him now (rats escaping sinking ship). He has seen how his hotels are facing mass cancellations and can't sell rooms at half-price even when other hotels are fully booked. His kids no doubt fear that dad's massive empire is imploding and they've poured over those financial figures and he knows, Trump knows this run has cost him dearly, in terms of his other businesses.

At his rally, Trump read that speech where he started off like he was going to accept the election result, and walk back his crazy talk from the debate, but then being the wise-ass that he is, he flipped it into a joke, only if he wins. There was even a version circulated to the press, showing his remarks, that had the alternate paragraph, where Trump ran the same line but saying, he'll accept the election result, if Hillary loses.

I am CERTAIN it was Kellyanne Conway who wrote that paragraph up to Trump's twisted joke in the end. And Trump then 'edited' the text to that morose ending. It may even be, that this silly joke is what prompted that one guy to quit. I am sure the real politicos inside Trump's campaign are despondent over this issue. They understand, their lives are politics, they had a career in politics, and Trump is setting a time bomb for November 9, which may wipe out their political careers (or what they may have had hoped, they might still recover after Trump).

But Trump knows he did wrong. He knows that was a big mistake and he is struggling with the issue, that he has to walk it back somehow, but he is too stubborn to apologize. We heard his daughter say that of course dad will accept the election result. This is what Ivanka said in public. Now they have that fight inside the family, where she is trying to reason with dad and Trump still does this stupid stuff.

John McCain did come out with a sane statement, saying that all who have lost the election have congratulated the winner as 'my President'. It is a proud American tradition and one that is not in any way partisan. It is the very core of being an American.

I do hope that more of this comes now as pressure, I am disgusted at most Republicans who have said nothing about this.

In a practical sense, it won't matter. This election will not be close. The election result will be crystal-clear long before the polls have closed, and the networks will simply not announce that Hillary is the new President until the last polls on the West Coast close, but the running tally of Electoral College votes won will be decided long before that time comes and anyone who can do math, an see the EC vote tally on the screen to see, oh, Hillary has won Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, etc etc, she is clearly the winner...

And the victory is not DEPENDENT on the other side conceding. There is no way the police and military personnel and civil servants would somehow 'defect' and support a coup attempt by Trump. Because he is not in the White House being voted out of office, there is no risk of a 'hostile' transfer of power, it will be from Obama to Hillary anyway. BUT this is a HORRIBLE precedent and a HUGE stain on the US democracy (again, yet another horrible horrible thing to teach future politicians, that this might be acceptable).

Now here is the good part. There is 19 days left. Trump knew he lost yesterday. The way he was at the Al Smith dinner, and the handshake, I think signals that he is starting his own mental journey to the fact, that he has lost this election. There is nothing more they can do. People are already voting. All early voting data say big surge for Democrats, Republican vote is down. All registration data says the Democrats have a big surge and the Republicans do not. The 'silent majority' did not appear for Trump.

And as most polls show the 7 or 8 point race, including Fox's own poll, Trump and his team know, the reality is, they are not going to win. Nobody comes back from 7 points down in 19 days. Not when there is no debate left.

I hope Trump now gets to terms with his failure. I hope he will be forced by Republicans to take back that disqualifying statement that he would not accept the decision of the voters. I am not confident he can do that but there is plenty of time and he may well get to terms with it. The good thing is, that Hillary will be winning by landslide, so most American voters will see it is a clear victory and massive mandate. With that, at least this type of campaigning will be tarnished as a strategy. And the Republicans will have to do a new Autopsy. One which could be just summarized in one sentence. We told you last time what to do.

This will be a good thing for the Republicans to experience but the bad thing is, at least partly, they will not yet learn the full message they have to learn. They will learn that they should not nominate a sexist racist bastard. And they should make sure their next nomination contest actually prepares their candidate to debate Hillary Clinton, and to show tax returns and to be properly vetted not to be a sexual molester and serial fraud. But it will not teach them that they need a MODERATE. The right wing of the party will insist that Trump was 'not pure enough' that he was a wishy-washy flip-flopping ex-Democrat and that the party loses with moderates like John McCain, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump. So they will insist they need a right-wing purist extremist candidate (most likely Ted Cruz). Which means they'll lose by another landslide in 2020... I don't mind that, they do need to go through the full medicine to learn the error of their ways and get back to being a sane moderate sensible adult and facts-oriented political party. That might appear for 2024....

But I am kind of in a melancholy place today. The election is over. I am trying to remain excited and interested in the Senate and House races (gosh, and I will be happy to see Sheriff Arpaio lose his job) but usually every 4 years the Presidential election 3 weeks out before election day, I could barely sleep, I'd be watching the polls and doing my forecast models and recalculate the Electoral College votes etc. This election is done.

And here is a thought. The Trump event was not filled to the max. The Trump Train is now losing its momentum. Trump doesn't have any national high-exposure ways to get it back. Instead the number of women coming forward about sexual abuse keeps growing daily (its now at least 13 with that tennis woman) and the Hillary machine is pushing up its GOTV machine to overdrive mode. When a candidate speaks of a vote being rigged, of a vote being stolen - that does NOT increase turnout it DEPRESSES it. On HIS SIDE. Trump is now punching new holes in his own ship, to make it sink faster. It is plausible that Trump sees a COLLAPSE in REPUBLICAN TURNOUT.

I did not model that to happen. I said Trump's army is loyal to a fault and will not desert him. But they also BELIEVE him. They believe him more than any news outlet. If their guy Trump says, this election is rigged (and most states are controlled by Republicans, this means that Trump accuses REPUBLICAN Governors and state administrations of defrauding voters) that could mean he falls below the 37% vote count. If 10% of his voters now just decide to not show up, its pointless, Hillary has won the election and there is no point in showing up - then he is down to 34% and that means (with the others doing 6%, 3% & 1%) that Hillary is up to 56%. A 22% catastrophic apocalyptic calamity. And yes, then the House is gone, and many local races, Governors etc, will also flip.

Remember, there is a BONUS coming to Hillary above what the last polls will measure, that is because of her unprecedented GOTV advantage and the female voter surge. So if we start to see polls going well into double-digits now, Hillary around 12% now next week, and then last week getting into 14% or 15%, then a 20% election might be in the cards. But even just the 16% that I predicted, means Trump only wins about 10 states and will go down as one of the biggest losers in US Presidential election history. Good.

But yeah. I am feeling a bit like after the Nokia sale news broke and that Elop was removed from being Nokia CEO. Like, now what? I'd been so intensely involved in a news story that consumed me, now what? At least I thought the fun would last until Nov 8 haha...

But I am REALLY REALLY proud of my joke book. Gosh. I never EVER thought I'd have the chance to publish a whole book just of my own original jokes. And to think, I've come up with over 3,500 jokes about Trump and the Republican circus around him, in the past 16 months. I've averaged 7 new jokes daily haha. Gosh. Wow. And you guys here, you were part of it, reading my early blogs about Trumpian sillyness and liking those and then commenting here about the race. If you didn't have this discussion with me, I would never have been able to be that deeply involved in the political matters, just on Twitter. I really appreciate it (oh, and a special treat was that James Bond manuscript. I think at some point I'll go finish that story too).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi pauledward

(Welcome to our little chat club!)

VERY interesting article, thanks! Yes the body language seemed obvious even to the untrained eye like mine (and touches a bit on what I said in the above comment) but that article is by an expert who knew what those body language clues were and could detect when they happened and explain their importance. VERY illuminating article thanks! I hope my 'insider' debate coach analysis of the first debate, the second, detailed one, would also have given to my readers about the methods of rhetoric used in that debate.

Everybody, pls go read, that is an excellent article on the body language of the third debate (and also relates now to their demeanor at the Al Smith dinner).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Tomi:

"It ain't over 'til it's over."


I wonder how much these 3 debates will be studied and used for teaching.

Maybe there's a lesson or two in this, also:

Alex Jones Makes Trump Look Polite in Debate Meltdown

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/alex-joness-debate-meltdown-makes-trump-look-polite.html

grouch

Steve Bell has a twisted mind. I approve his message. :D

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2016/oct/20/steve-bell-on-the-final-us-presidential-debate-cartoon

grouch

2008 is calling us...

Undecided
By David Sedaris

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/10/27/undecided

Winter

Here is someone suggesting that Trump could bet on himself losing the elections:

http://daniel-slack.newsvine.com/_news/2016/10/20/36241087-is-donald-trump-and-his-associates-betting-on-losing

"Throughout this election, many have claimed that Donald Trump did not seem to initially threw his hat into the ring to win. Since Donald Trump is not an idiot, maybe he has more to gain by losing the election? He has been saying that the Election is rigged, maybe he is speaking of himself doing the deed. I do not know, but considering his track record on truth, I doubt he will ever tell."

Winter

Video of Donald Trump trying to vote alongside Billy Bush in 2004 shows how hard it is to commit voter fraud
https://www.businessinsider.nl/donald-trump-video-billy-bush-2004-voter-fraud-2016-10/?international=true&r=US

Trump visits three polling places and still has to fill in an absentee ballot because his registration is not correct.

grouch

Haven't seen a transcript link posted yet, so...

Full transcript: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s final presidential debate

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13336894/third-presidential-debate-live-transcript-clinton-trump

grouch

“All the black and brown people have to leave”: Trump’s scary impact on how kids think

http://www.vox.com/identities/2016/10/20/13319366/donald-trump-racism-bigotry-children-bullying-muslim-mexican-black-immigrant

Winter

Even Fox News is getting quite negative about Trump:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/20/trump-couldnt-resist.html

Trump has been trying to keep his supporters onboard by telling them that what they see with their eyes is not real. He is not losing, but rather the polls are rigged. He is not being accused by multiple women of sexual assault, but rather is a victim of a conspiracy between the Clinton campaign and the press. And, in the most significant reimagining of reality, says that even if he does lose when the election is over it will be because of fraud.

Even if Trump believed in what he has said is “large scale” voter fraud, what would possess him to say in a debate that he might not abide by the results of the election?

It must be hubris.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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