Final Debate Review: One President vs One Petulant Child

So the last Trump vs Hillary debate is done. It will be remembered as the debate where Trump put himself and his personal acceptance ahead of the opinion of 200 million voters. I think this will damage him more than any other third debate ever, and will bring on a wave of condemnation by Republicans and more un-endorsements. I think he will walk that statement back, soon, and may be forced to Apple-igize or non-apologize for it.

As to the debate, we saw the mellow Trump, on downers. He kept his cool most of the way but started to lose his concentration on not interrupting about half-way in, and did ever more of the interruptions towards the end. On the issues, Trump had worked on several points, delivered a few of those moderately well, in particular keeping to a more-or-less single talking point per response, and developing it, rather than mentioning every right-wing talking point. As it is, he didn't have much to add to what was out there and a few of his attacks had already been fact-checked to be false, so their practical value would now be even less. He still is, a businessman, and his best argumnents were near his business background, on jobs, on trade, on the economy and taxes. He was also doing good Republican talking points on the Supreme Court topic, something significantly more coherent than his previous ramblings. Many Republicans will like the development of his debating skills in those areas and probably all would agree, this was the best debate Trump has delivered. He has taken coaching and it shows. Were it not for the promise to not accept the verdict of American voters but rather substitute his own judgment instead, then he could get close to a tie out of the debate.

Hillary was polished, calm, played safe, needled 'Donald' many times but not very roughly - I loved the Emmys - and worked constantly on her favorables. At every point of the debate she was Presidential. I would think most independents and moderates and undecideds will give the debate to her, she should end up having won the debate. The Democrats will all love of her of course (but not all Republicans will like what they heard from Trump). There were very pointed barbs that probably stung deep, like the one in response to Trump sexual assault defenses, that women know exactly that type of behavior and the excuses. I think the most damaging of the attacks on the issues other than election fraud, was the Putin spying and whether Trump accepts its Russians doing it. The ending statement was just about pitch-perfect, she's clearly had time to prep for this possibility and Trump was totally not prepared for it, so he fumbled around for his talking points and I would guess if we time it, Hillary went 5 or 10 seconds over, and Trump is at least 10 seconds under the 60 seconds they were allocated.

I was expecting a big attack from Hillary on some surprise, and it wasn't there. She did some hits on Trump but on familiar ground, like buying Chinese steel and hiring undocumented workers and not showing taxes, but I was expecting a bombshell. It may be that she had one, but decided (or had pre-calculated it with her team already, which is more likely, now that I think of it) that as Trump declared himself above the decision of American voters, that should be the story of the debate, and let it stand, don't bring any other issues now. Hillary can still use her TV ads and surrogates to run hits if she has other stuff to use. This is probably an impact as big as the 'p*ssygate' tapes, and Hillary made a good, solid rebuke of it in her response. I believe Trump didn't know how big a hole he just dug for himself (as he typically never does understand whenever he does big campaign mistakes). I am certain this will be the issue the Hillary campaign will use to push their narrative after the debate.

We saw a President on stage, a poised, calm, fully prepared and sensible President. And we saw a petulant child, out of his depth, blaming everybody, telling lies, claiming he hadn't said things he's said, arguing with the moderator, and interrupting. I believe many Republicans who voted or said they endorse Trump, felt ashamed by this charade. Hillary played both edges well, pointing out in a planned piece that Trump took an op-ed against Reagan in 1987 (saying same stuff as he now accuses of Obama) and then spontaneously when Trump pulled Bernie in to hit Hillary (rather well this time) Hillary slammed Trump on Bernie with the quote that Bernie calls Trump the most dangerous person ever to run. Haha, don't try that cheap trick against a pro debater. The real polling will probably give this something like a 55/45 or 60/40 level decision, I don't expect a 2 to 1 level drubbing like the first debate, but Hillary won more voter opinions than Trump won. The online polling obviously is bogus, that'll show now that Trump won as every debate always said, as those online polls allow multiple votes and Putin's minions are powering those. Of the horse race polls, which will start to come out around Saturday/Sunday that will have polling done in the next 2 days or so, I expect when we get the first 4 or 5 polls, the race will have moved into Hillary's favor another point or maybe two. It will mostly be undecideds now breaking for Hillary, and not so much lost polling support of Trump. But the erosion of Trump's Republican base voter support will continue, and I believe the enthusiasm of Republican voters will diminish, somewhat, in the aftermath of this debate. They will be getting very demoralized, as Trump had to knock this out of the park, and he didn't even hit the baseball. Trump will now face unprecedented pressure from everybody to acknowledge in public that the voters get to decide who becomes President.

I do feel sorry for Hillary Clinton. She's that talented and prepared, she would have deserved a better Republican than this. Hopefully in 2020 at least the Republicans will nominate someone who is sane and coherent and prepared. This campaign for Hillary has been like trying to play billiards on a cruise ship that is in a vicious storm, constantly scrambling the balls on the billiard table. Still, its now done. We have 20 days left, people are already voting, and Hillary will run away with a landslide election victory. I am curious to see, will she reach neutral popularity in Gallup polling by election day. She just might.


ADDENDUM - After the Tweets

I again re-lived the whole debate via contemporary Twitter feed. I think there were 8 major moments, four on each side. Trump well, he managed to damage himself. He is struggling with the worst Hispanic level of support ever measured, and the debate was in Nevada. So Trump decided to speak Spanish and use the not-nice term 'hombre' It did not strike me, as a Finn, as a particularly onorous term, thinking more of some old Cowboy Western style movie. But plenty of Twitter users were offended. I think its safe to say, the Hispanics noticed.

The sexual assault groping issue went badly as probably could be expected. But that also went even worse for Trump than any sane person would say, in that he said he hasn't done anything wrong, because he even didn't apologize to Melania. Yeah. Good choice of word. Melania is already on videotape saying how Trump apologized. But now that issue - the most damaging tape from Trump's past so far, was given new life and will not help him with women.

Well, then there is of course the fact that Trump is having the worst gender gap ever measured. And how did he end the debate? By calling Hillary a nasty woman. Even a man gets it, that this is not how you win over women voters.

So lets switch gears. There were four moments from Hillary's side that could also be summarized by a single word. I'll start with the moderator slam. Energy. Hillary was so prepped for the Wikileaks quote, knowing they might use the one about her wanting open borders. And Chris Wallace did take the sleazy journalist short-cut (he is a Republican) to try to 'gotcha' Hillary with it. But she was prepped. So her answer, if you finished the sentence, I was talking about energy... OUCH. Yes, an open border not for PEOPLE to come across, but for USA to import and export electricity and natural gas etc between USA, Mexico and Canada, that makes sense (we have that in Europe for example between Finland, Sweden and Norway, selling electricity across the borders). That was just superb prep. And with that, except for the hardest of hard-core Hillary-haters, she took Wikileaks totally out of the picture, for the last 20 days. SMART and effective.

Then there was the word 'thirty'. Hillary loved it when Trump challeged her on not achieving anything in 30 years. A very precise but cutting rebuke, ending with Hillary helping catch Osama Bin Laden while Trump was doing celebrity Apprentice. Ouch. But a very good prepped speech on highlighting her strengths vs Trump's weaknesses.

The Trump bragged about his Hotel in Las Vegas. Hillary fast on her feet, and after Trump had been interrupting for an hour, hit him with 'made with Chinese steel' Bam! The word China stung Trump and will resonate especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, coal and steel country. 

But Hillary's hardest hit is the word puppet. That was very very smart and devastating. After Trump did a good job of attacking Hillary about how 'weak' she was and how much Putin didn't respect her, for Hillary to hit Trump, yeah, Putin wants Trump as his puppet. That probably would have been the killer line of the debate. Except for one word. I gave 4 from Hillary but only 3 from Trump. The most devastating word, if you summarize the whole debate into single words to describe its main moments.

Its suspense. That Trump said he won't commit to accepting the verdict of the American voters, and he will keep the nation in suspense. I don't think this will be allowed to stand. I do think this will be the final straw for many who were on the edge of their seats, should they stay with Trump or bail. And many opportunists who were on the Trump Train, but seeing it will be a total train-wreck, will now find their 'principled' way out. If he won't respect American voters, I can't endorse him anymore, and they will start to un-endorse him. I would expect a new wave of those un-endorsements now. So eight words to describe the 8 main moments. From Hillary its Energy, China, Nasty and Puppet. From Trump its Hombre, Apologize, Nasty and Suspense. That concludes our election season 2016 debate analysis blogs. Thank you for playing along.

If this debate left you with a really nasty taste in your mouth, a sick feeling in your stomach, and you want to try to wash it out with some laughter. I released my 13th book. Its 1001 Jokes about Donald Trump. Get it while he's still the alleged candidate, and laugh. At this point Laughter is the Best Medicine (I already emailed the Hillary Clinton campaign a shared licence complimentary copy of the book). Its 235 pages long, has 1,450 jokes in total, and only costs $4.99. I am showing 1 free page of jokes every day from now until election day to help promote the ebook, and the first 3 pages of jokes are already up for you to enjoy even if you don't buy the book. So lets laugh at Trump. See it here TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Comments

[Winter]

Trump's first answer during the last debate told it all:

Donald Trump lost another debate by making it all about himself
https://www.businessinsider.nl/why-donald-trump-lost-debate-hillary-clinton-2016-10/?international=true&r=US

"What’s important is that, when Donald Trump was asked what he thought the Supreme Court should do with its power, the first thing he decided was important to address was that the justices on the court should be nice to him – and that he had made one of them apologize to him when she wasn’t."

[grouch]

Final debate fact-check: Clinton and Trump's claims reviewed

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/19/third-presidential-debate-fact-check-trump-clinton

[grouch]

While at theguardian...

'She destroyed him': 10 readers on the final presidential debate

"utterly childlike"
"childish"
"ugly insanity"
"chocolate cake or circular saw?"
"vile little man"
"grotesque"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/20/she-destroyed-him-10-readers-on-the-final-presidential-debate

[grouch]

And there are "Nasty Woman" t-shirts already out there.

[sgtrock]

@grouch;

"Pics or it didn't happen." lol

[cornelius]

From 538:
Clinton was the most dominant debater to date

MARGIN IN POST-DEBATE POLLS
DEBATE WINNER...........YEAR....1ST DEBATE....2ND DEBATE....3RD DEBATE....TOTAL
Clinton (vs. Trump).....2016....+35...........+23...........+13...........+71
Obama (vs. McCain)......2008....+13...........+24...........+27...........+64
Clinton (vs. Bush)......1992....+14...........+42...........+0............+56
Kerry (vs. Bush)........2004....+16...........+2............+13...........+31
Romney (vs. Obama)......2012....+42...........-7............-8............+27
Bush (vs. Gore).........2000....-7............+13...........-2............+4

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

[Wayne Borean]

Commentary on the election. Well worth reading.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-fury-and-failure-of-donald-trump-w444943

[cornelius]

@Wayne Borean
The article was nice, a bit too much on the literature side for my taste. But the best thing was the picture of Trump grabbing Liberty by the kitty. That was awesome. Trump, the wannabe dictator, raping the Liberty in multiple ways. Awesome!

[Eduardo M]

Trump says he will wait until after the election to decide if it was legitimate or not. But he has been saying for weeks that the Democrats are going to fraudulently steal millions of ballots, so I think we can be pretty sure that he will claim the election was illegal.

[Millard Filmore]

@Tomi: there is a twitter hash-tag you might like: #TrumpBookReport

"Trump's foreign policy answers sound like a book report from a teenager who hasn't read the book. "Oh, the grapes! They had so much wrath!"
. . . — Antonio French (@AntonioFrench) October 20, 2016"

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/20/1584946/-Fill-your-library-with-these-Donald-Trump-book-reports

[Winter]

From the man who complains about corrupt and lying media:

Did Trump TV Launch Last Night?
http://www.npr.org/2016/10/20/498691090/did-trump-tv-launch-last-night

"All six of the 15-minute segments — total home runs for him," said Cliff Sims. "I think this was really the performance that Donald Trump needed to grab that momentum going toward the election."

His co-host, Boris Epshteyn, agreed: "He prosecuted the case against Hillary Clinton perfectly."

[steve]

For Trump, the press is the drug.
From Nov 10th onward, the 24x7 TV abandonment depression will be very severe even if he launches Trump TV.

Mondale/Dukakis syndrome.
Not being talked about on CNN will drive him nuts.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi cornelius

Great table via 538 on the debates.

Another way to look at it, win/loss record.

Hillary 100% = 3-0
Obama 83% = 5-1
Bill Clinton 83% = 3-1-0 (middle is tie)
W Bush 17% = 1-5

BUT now consider PRIMARY debates too. Just the two top-dogs.

Hillary undefeated world champ 100% = 38-0
Obama.... 15% = 5-29

Haha. Yeah. Hillary has never lost a televised Presidential debate, not even tied one. And she's done more of them than anyone else. She won all 9 against Bernie (no big feat) but yes, she won all 25 against Obama too (the 26h debate that year Hillary also won, but Obama didn't participate in that early debate with half a dozen other rivals)

It will be interesting to see Hillary's first debate in September of 2020 against whoever the Republicans send up against her (she might face two rivals if the GOP splits and the Tea Party nominates its guy, could be Ted Cruz from Tea Party and Marco Rubio from rump-GOP haha). That will be her biggest test, can she still run the unbeaten streak and be as sharp and not come in too confident, like Obama against Romney first debate of 2012.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

sgtrock:

"Pics or it didn't happen."

Here ya go! :D

Donald Trump’s ‘Nasty Woman’ Comments Inspired This T-Shirt Benefiting Planned Parenthood

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/10/trump-inspired-nasty-woman-shirt-funds-planned-parenthood.html

[grouch]

Millard Filmore:

My wife was a teacher for 27 years. Those book reports had her laughing.

This was my favorite:

Eric Wolfson ”No #TrumpBookReport is complete because he can't get past Chapter 11.”

[grouch]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/20/1585091/-The-Trump-Debate-Moment-Which-Destroys-a-Tenet-of-Republican-Philosphy-But-is-Whooshing-by-Everyone

"In short, Donald Trump, as the standard bearer for the Republican Party, just admitted that American businesses will not act in the national interest, just their self-interest, unless regulators force them to do so. He admitted that businesses will not act responsibly unless regulated."

[grouch]

This sounds familiar. Didn't somebody recently say Donald claims anything that doesn't go his way must be rigged?

Trump Claims Fox News’s Chris Wallace Rigged The Debate For Hillary Clinton

"Donald Trump is claiming that the third presidential debate was fixed as he believes that Fox News's Chris Wallace gave Hillary Clinton the questions in advance."

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/20/trump-claims-fox-newss-chris-wallace-rigged-debate-hillary-clinton.html

[grouch]

Trump National Political Director Abandons Imploding Campaign While He Still Can

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/20/trump-national-political-director-jumps-ship.html

[grouch]

The True Story Behind the Dumpster-Fire GIF That Perfectly Sums Up This Election

http://nymag.com/selectall/2016/10/true-story-behind-the-2016-election-dumpster-fire-gif.html

[cornelius]

@grouch
I believe the correct spelling is "drumpfster-fire".