Final Debate Review: One President vs One Petulant Child

So the last Trump vs Hillary debate is done. It will be remembered as the debate where Trump put himself and his personal acceptance ahead of the opinion of 200 million voters. I think this will damage him more than any other third debate ever, and will bring on a wave of condemnation by Republicans and more un-endorsements. I think he will walk that statement back, soon, and may be forced to Apple-igize or non-apologize for it.

As to the debate, we saw the mellow Trump, on downers. He kept his cool most of the way but started to lose his concentration on not interrupting about half-way in, and did ever more of the interruptions towards the end. On the issues, Trump had worked on several points, delivered a few of those moderately well, in particular keeping to a more-or-less single talking point per response, and developing it, rather than mentioning every right-wing talking point. As it is, he didn't have much to add to what was out there and a few of his attacks had already been fact-checked to be false, so their practical value would now be even less. He still is, a businessman, and his best argumnents were near his business background, on jobs, on trade, on the economy and taxes. He was also doing good Republican talking points on the Supreme Court topic, something significantly more coherent than his previous ramblings. Many Republicans will like the development of his debating skills in those areas and probably all would agree, this was the best debate Trump has delivered. He has taken coaching and it shows. Were it not for the promise to not accept the verdict of American voters but rather substitute his own judgment instead, then he could get close to a tie out of the debate.

Hillary was polished, calm, played safe, needled 'Donald' many times but not very roughly - I loved the Emmys - and worked constantly on her favorables. At every point of the debate she was Presidential. I would think most independents and moderates and undecideds will give the debate to her, she should end up having won the debate. The Democrats will all love of her of course (but not all Republicans will like what they heard from Trump). There were very pointed barbs that probably stung deep, like the one in response to Trump sexual assault defenses, that women know exactly that type of behavior and the excuses. I think the most damaging of the attacks on the issues other than election fraud, was the Putin spying and whether Trump accepts its Russians doing it. The ending statement was just about pitch-perfect, she's clearly had time to prep for this possibility and Trump was totally not prepared for it, so he fumbled around for his talking points and I would guess if we time it, Hillary went 5 or 10 seconds over, and Trump is at least 10 seconds under the 60 seconds they were allocated.

I was expecting a big attack from Hillary on some surprise, and it wasn't there. She did some hits on Trump but on familiar ground, like buying Chinese steel and hiring undocumented workers and not showing taxes, but I was expecting a bombshell. It may be that she had one, but decided (or had pre-calculated it with her team already, which is more likely, now that I think of it) that as Trump declared himself above the decision of American voters, that should be the story of the debate, and let it stand, don't bring any other issues now. Hillary can still use her TV ads and surrogates to run hits if she has other stuff to use. This is probably an impact as big as the 'p*ssygate' tapes, and Hillary made a good, solid rebuke of it in her response. I believe Trump didn't know how big a hole he just dug for himself (as he typically never does understand whenever he does big campaign mistakes). I am certain this will be the issue the Hillary campaign will use to push their narrative after the debate.

We saw a President on stage, a poised, calm, fully prepared and sensible President. And we saw a petulant child, out of his depth, blaming everybody, telling lies, claiming he hadn't said things he's said, arguing with the moderator, and interrupting. I believe many Republicans who voted or said they endorse Trump, felt ashamed by this charade. Hillary played both edges well, pointing out in a planned piece that Trump took an op-ed against Reagan in 1987 (saying same stuff as he now accuses of Obama) and then spontaneously when Trump pulled Bernie in to hit Hillary (rather well this time) Hillary slammed Trump on Bernie with the quote that Bernie calls Trump the most dangerous person ever to run. Haha, don't try that cheap trick against a pro debater. The real polling will probably give this something like a 55/45 or 60/40 level decision, I don't expect a 2 to 1 level drubbing like the first debate, but Hillary won more voter opinions than Trump won. The online polling obviously is bogus, that'll show now that Trump won as every debate always said, as those online polls allow multiple votes and Putin's minions are powering those. Of the horse race polls, which will start to come out around Saturday/Sunday that will have polling done in the next 2 days or so, I expect when we get the first 4 or 5 polls, the race will have moved into Hillary's favor another point or maybe two. It will mostly be undecideds now breaking for Hillary, and not so much lost polling support of Trump. But the erosion of Trump's Republican base voter support will continue, and I believe the enthusiasm of Republican voters will diminish, somewhat, in the aftermath of this debate. They will be getting very demoralized, as Trump had to knock this out of the park, and he didn't even hit the baseball. Trump will now face unprecedented pressure from everybody to acknowledge in public that the voters get to decide who becomes President.

I do feel sorry for Hillary Clinton. She's that talented and prepared, she would have deserved a better Republican than this. Hopefully in 2020 at least the Republicans will nominate someone who is sane and coherent and prepared. This campaign for Hillary has been like trying to play billiards on a cruise ship that is in a vicious storm, constantly scrambling the balls on the billiard table. Still, its now done. We have 20 days left, people are already voting, and Hillary will run away with a landslide election victory. I am curious to see, will she reach neutral popularity in Gallup polling by election day. She just might.


ADDENDUM - After the Tweets

I again re-lived the whole debate via contemporary Twitter feed. I think there were 8 major moments, four on each side. Trump well, he managed to damage himself. He is struggling with the worst Hispanic level of support ever measured, and the debate was in Nevada. So Trump decided to speak Spanish and use the not-nice term 'hombre' It did not strike me, as a Finn, as a particularly onorous term, thinking more of some old Cowboy Western style movie. But plenty of Twitter users were offended. I think its safe to say, the Hispanics noticed.

The sexual assault groping issue went badly as probably could be expected. But that also went even worse for Trump than any sane person would say, in that he said he hasn't done anything wrong, because he even didn't apologize to Melania. Yeah. Good choice of word. Melania is already on videotape saying how Trump apologized. But now that issue - the most damaging tape from Trump's past so far, was given new life and will not help him with women.

Well, then there is of course the fact that Trump is having the worst gender gap ever measured. And how did he end the debate? By calling Hillary a nasty woman. Even a man gets it, that this is not how you win over women voters.

So lets switch gears. There were four moments from Hillary's side that could also be summarized by a single word. I'll start with the moderator slam. Energy. Hillary was so prepped for the Wikileaks quote, knowing they might use the one about her wanting open borders. And Chris Wallace did take the sleazy journalist short-cut (he is a Republican) to try to 'gotcha' Hillary with it. But she was prepped. So her answer, if you finished the sentence, I was talking about energy... OUCH. Yes, an open border not for PEOPLE to come across, but for USA to import and export electricity and natural gas etc between USA, Mexico and Canada, that makes sense (we have that in Europe for example between Finland, Sweden and Norway, selling electricity across the borders). That was just superb prep. And with that, except for the hardest of hard-core Hillary-haters, she took Wikileaks totally out of the picture, for the last 20 days. SMART and effective.

Then there was the word 'thirty'. Hillary loved it when Trump challeged her on not achieving anything in 30 years. A very precise but cutting rebuke, ending with Hillary helping catch Osama Bin Laden while Trump was doing celebrity Apprentice. Ouch. But a very good prepped speech on highlighting her strengths vs Trump's weaknesses.

The Trump bragged about his Hotel in Las Vegas. Hillary fast on her feet, and after Trump had been interrupting for an hour, hit him with 'made with Chinese steel' Bam! The word China stung Trump and will resonate especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, coal and steel country. 

But Hillary's hardest hit is the word puppet. That was very very smart and devastating. After Trump did a good job of attacking Hillary about how 'weak' she was and how much Putin didn't respect her, for Hillary to hit Trump, yeah, Putin wants Trump as his puppet. That probably would have been the killer line of the debate. Except for one word. I gave 4 from Hillary but only 3 from Trump. The most devastating word, if you summarize the whole debate into single words to describe its main moments.

Its suspense. That Trump said he won't commit to accepting the verdict of the American voters, and he will keep the nation in suspense. I don't think this will be allowed to stand. I do think this will be the final straw for many who were on the edge of their seats, should they stay with Trump or bail. And many opportunists who were on the Trump Train, but seeing it will be a total train-wreck, will now find their 'principled' way out. If he won't respect American voters, I can't endorse him anymore, and they will start to un-endorse him. I would expect a new wave of those un-endorsements now. So eight words to describe the 8 main moments. From Hillary its Energy, China, Nasty and Puppet. From Trump its Hombre, Apologize, Nasty and Suspense. That concludes our election season 2016 debate analysis blogs. Thank you for playing along.

If this debate left you with a really nasty taste in your mouth, a sick feeling in your stomach, and you want to try to wash it out with some laughter. I released my 13th book. Its 1001 Jokes about Donald Trump. Get it while he's still the alleged candidate, and laugh. At this point Laughter is the Best Medicine (I already emailed the Hillary Clinton campaign a shared licence complimentary copy of the book). Its 235 pages long, has 1,450 jokes in total, and only costs $4.99. I am showing 1 free page of jokes every day from now until election day to help promote the ebook, and the first 3 pages of jokes are already up for you to enjoy even if you don't buy the book. So lets laugh at Trump. See it here TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Comments

[grouch]

Conspicuously missing from Donald Trump's new venture: His name

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-trump-hotels-scion-20161018-story.html

[grouch]

Has this been posted yet?

A Timeline of Donald Trump's Creepiness While He Owned Miss Universe

"Donald Trump was forced to sell the Miss Universe Organization – which also includes sister scholarship programs Miss USA and Miss Teen USA – in 2015 after his incendiary comments about Mexicans drove away broadcasters NBC and Univision. But Trump owned the pageant for nearly two decades, during which time he would have had the opportunity to come into contact with nearly 4,000 beauty queens."

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/timeline-of-trumps-creepiness-while-he-owned-miss-universe-w444634

[grouch]

The lies Trump told this week: voter fraud and the 'rigged' election

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/21/donald-trump-fact-check-rigged-election-voter

[grouch]

Half of Republicans would reject election result if Clinton wins, poll finds

70% of Republicans believe Clinton could only win through fraud
Seven out of 10 Democrats would accept a Trump victory

" Atkeson said the level of concern and mistrust in the system, especially among Republicans, is unprecedented.

“I’ve never seen an election like this. Not in my lifetime. Certainly not in modern history.” The difference, she said, is Trump. “It has to be the candidate effect.”

She worries that the lack of trust is dangerous. It is one thing to not trust government, but quite another to doubt the election process. “Then the entire premise of democracy comes into question,” she said."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/21/republicans-reject-us-election-result-hillary-clinton-win

[grouch]

Trump says countries are turning on US because 'the world hates Obama'

The Republican said America and Barack Obama are globally loathed, citing frosty relations with Rodrigo Duterte, just hours after criticizing the first lady

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/21/donald-trump-michelle-obama-philippines-duterte-clinton

[grouch]

Why was Donald Trump campaigning in Johnstown, Pennsylvania?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/22/why-was-donald-trump-campaigning-in-johnstown-pennsylvania/

[grouch]

Trump Says He Will Have ‘Lots of Options’ for Locking Up Clinton Once in Office

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/trump-i-will-have-lots-of-options-for-locking-up-clinton.html

[Winter]

@grouch
It looks more and more like Trump and the people behind him are planning an armed revolt. I cannot imagine him to want to become a martyr.

Or does he want to do a Jim Jones on his followers?

[Winter]

GOP Senate Ad Acknowledges Clinton Likely to Win
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/latest-trump-set-lay-100-days-agenda-42984614

[Winter]

Making Peace with Trump’s Legion
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/making-peace-with-trumps-revolutionaries

[Wayne Borean]

Ah, one of my fave subjects, Copyright. Trump campaign is sued by artist who took Skittles photo.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trump-campaign-sued-over-donald-trump-jrs-offensive-skittles-tweet

[Winter]

In Gettysburg, Trump talks about Trump, and how vile Trump's enemies are:

In historic Gettysburg, Lincoln spoke of unity; Trump complained of a ‘totally rigged’ system
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/22/in-historic-gettysburg-lincoln-spoke-of-unity-trump-complained-of-a-rigged-system/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

So Trump's Gettysburg Address. Or his Grievances Address. At this point in time, Trump should be very precisely focused on refining his final message, keep it very clear and simple. The main points. Contrast with Hillary and have a positive view of what he'd do.

Instead, he spends part of his speech attacking the women, who he says he'll sue after the election. So if thats the timing, why bother to mention them now? Why waste any effort now on this non-story if it can wait until November 10? Obviously because the only reason is to try to frighten the other women out there, considering whether to also join in the chorus. Its an intimidation tactic. And Trump knows he has lost this election. He's not even trying to win now. So his Gettysburg address is a grievances address.

He also feuds ever more with the news networks and complains of a broken system. Seems to want to threaten news organizations of lawsuits too. And this helps Trump HOW in convincing undecided voters? Wasting more of his scarce time on not focusing on Hillary or promoting his own policies. He did touch on policies more than usual and had a pivot to his Wall, now he wants to borrow the money, pay for the wall, and have Mexico reimburse the USA for that wall. Haha. Yeah.

Now on Trump's ability to focus, he is being trolled from all sides and he keeps taking the bait. Like the First Lady. Why oh why would he ever go there? Michelle Obama is not on the ballot. Neither is her husband. And Michelle Obama is the most popular political person in America today. Why bother? But brilliant trolling by the Democrats, to get FLOTUS out there to draw out responses from Trump and get him to not focus on Hillary.

And one more thought on Gettysburg. His audience! Its shrinking. That was a small room and it wasn't anywhere near full. There is a clear shrinking of his support. There was just earlier this week a pair of events in the same venue in Florida, Trump first, then President Obama. Obama got twice the number of people in the same venue. Even Trump's magic of filling giant rooms is now fading.

Trump does seem to be plotting his revenge. Richard Branson had a remarkably revealing interview where he talked about meeting Trump. Trump invited Branson to Trump Tower and over dinner, Trump only obsessed about 5 people he felt slighted about and promised a lifelong revenge against them all. Trump does behave like the stereotypical Bond villain. So right now, at least part of Trump's mind is on November 9 and the time after his loss, on how he wants to enact his cunning plan to get his revenge against all who betrayed him. I would guess his primary focus will not even be his victor, Hillary, who will however be on that enemies list. His primary focus is very likely a series of Republican 'traitors' and various media celebs that he feels have turned on him or didn't support him. The good part of this plan is, that his business is collapsing, he is likely running out of money, and its VERY likely his Campaign will be bankrupt by November 8, and then he will be toxic like he's never imagined. He won't be able to negotiate a way out, by providing his name for something because all who he owes money to, will HATE his name and want nothing to do with it. And he no doubt believes in his TV venture. I am pretty sure it will collapse if it hasn't collapsed already, but if Trump is labeled America's greatest loser, nobody wants that TV network.

Trump doesn't know how much he will be hated after November 8. When it emerges that he's swindled his supporters out of millions in money (and much of it to have vanished) they will be hounding him and will be bitter.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Weird Al just dropped one fine piece of music:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdBF6h7oH5I

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Did my forecast review blog about that amazing Oct 2014 forecast blog about Hillary's future run for President in 2016, and the related March 2016 blog 'Godzilla vs King Kong' that previewed the actual match-up of Trump vs Hillary. Pretty darned awesome forecast blog articles both. I had forgotten what all was there, and some is hair-raisingly spooky-accurate.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

@PWE,

Damnit, you beat me to it! There's no one like Weird Al.

[Wayne Borean]

Paul Ryan has reason to be afraid. Afraid of Bernie Sanders!

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/21/13358274/paul-ryan-bernie-sanders

[Winter]

@Wayne Borean
I cannot say I would feel any sorry if Paul Ryan would be booted out of any political position. The man seems to be one of the worst enemies of the very people that vote for him.

[Winter]

When the Election Is Over, It Will Not Be Done
Republicans will have to deal with struggling, white, working class families that have bought into the Trump vision.
http://wgw.alternet.org/election-2016/when-election-over-it-will-not-be-done

[Millard Filmore]

here is an ABC news poll:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a12016ElectionTrackingNo1.pdf

50% ... Clinton
38% ... Trump