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« Countdown to the End of Trump: 3 Weeks to Go - 1 more debate left, Hillary up by 7.5% | Main | Donald Trump LOVES my joke book with 1001 jokes about him; calls it best book ever, better than Art of the Deal; better than the Bible »

October 20, 2016

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Wayne Borean


And on mobile IOS we have Trump v. Clinton Slots!

SLOTS: TRUMP vs. HILLARY CLINTON Free Pokies by Patriotic Lunatic LLC
https://appsto.re/ca/_CYK0.i

Winter

"Is this what we are teaching our little boys?"

Sexism Is Out In The Open In The 2016 Campaign. That May Have Been Inevitable
http://www.npr.org/2016/10/23/498878356/sexism-is-out-in-the-open-in-the-2016-campaign-that-may-have-been-inevitable

Wayne Borean


Over at Indian Country today, this columnist makes some interesting arguments about Montana, which could also apply to a lot of Red States.

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/10/23/montana-poll-reflects-normal-election-thats-not-case-166178

Millard Filmore

Breaking news: the polls are rigged, even the Wall Street Journal polls! Since Trump says so, it must be true.

...
Trump continued, "They call them dark polls. They are phony polls put out by phony media and I will tell you what. All of us are affected by this stuff and what they do is they try and suppress the vote, this way, people don't go out and vote, but we're winning this race. I really believe we're winning..."

The WSJ has never been considered a phony news organization even after Murdoch bought them. Sure, their editorial pages are horrific, but they skew hard right wing.
...

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/10/donald-trump-wsj-part-rigged-system

Wayne Borean


I've been saying that I expected Tomi's numbers to be on the low end, that this election will see a blow out of Biblical proportions. It might even be Supernova sized.

It all goes back to the demographics of the Religious element.

About 40% of the American population consider themselves to be Evangelicals.

2) About half of Evangelicals support Trump. This half is mostly what are considered 'Complementarians', i.e. women and men have separate roles. Women’s roles are as homemakers only.

3) 54% of Evangelicals are women. It is likely higher than this since women tend to be more religious than men, but I am using the general population percentage, since that choice is defensible.

4) Many Evangelical leaders have ignored the Access Hollywood video, possibly because they have never been grabbed by the pussy.

5) There is also a strong belief in some Evangelical circles that women who are sexually assaulted invited the assault by dressing immodestly.

So let's play with numbers. It appears that Trump's iron ceiling is about 40%. As Tomi has noted he will never score above that.

Evangelicals make up 40% of the population, Assume half of that number or 20% of the population support Trump.

54% of Evangelicals are women, so 27% percent of Trump supporters were Evangelical women at the start of September, which translates to 10.8 percent of the total population.

Some Evangelical women have started to speak out against Trump, including women in the Complimentarian sects. Some of these women are popular, and very well known. They are telling their stories, and the stories of their friends who have experienced Sexual Assault. We have no idea how many women this will peel away from Trump, but even before the Access Hollywood tape Trump's support among women in genera was abysmal.

Note that this might not be reflected in polling. Women in Complimentarian churches are expected to follow their husband's orders. If a pollster calls, they’re likely to toe the party line. In the privacy of the voting booth, many may revolt.

This is where I have to guess. I have no idea how many Evangelical women are saying one thing in public, but intending to do something different in private, so I'm going to show a series of guesses. All are based on pollsters not capturing this shift, which I believe they are not doing to this point at least.

Assumption - all Evangelical women vote Clinton. That boosts Clinton’s support by 10.8%!
Assumption - half of all Evangelical women vote Clinton. This boosts Clinton’s support by 5.4%.
Assumption - a quarter of all Evangelical women vote Clinton (I regard this as the most likely scenario), which boosts Clinton’s support by 2.7%.

For Evangelicals the major wedge issues have been LGBT rights (including Same-Sex marriage) and abortion. Since the Republican party has tried to be the Evangelical Christian Party, until now there has been no way to peel their votes away from the GOP.

But the Sexual Assault issue could damned well do that. I know a number of women who were assaulted. Apparently I’m a safe person to talk to, so I’ve heard some really horrendous stories. It is probable that most Evangelical men have not been hearing these stories. The number of Evangelical women coming forward is going to shock Evangelical men, many of whom believe that sexual assault only happens to atheists with their pussy and tits hanging out of their clothes, and deserve what happens to them because of the way they dress. Hearing that your wife, mother, aunt, daughter, etc. have been assaulted, and knowing that they are prim and proper Evangelical women is going to be earth shattering.

Tomi said 16%. With my numbers we have:

26.8%
21.4%
18.7% - What I think is most likely at this time.

If I am right, and Clinton is 18.7% ahead of Trump, the odds of down ballot races being impacted are very high, and we are certain to see the Senate go Democrat. Anything higher than that is likely to cause the House to go Democrat.

Read the link, and leave your comments. I’m curious to see what everyone else can dig up.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/10/beth-moore-the-christian-women-speaking-out-about-trump-s-bad-news.html

Wayne Borean


As to the Religious nature of the American electorate, most countries have a religious element to politics. This is nothing unusual. What is unusual is how anti-science the American religious groups are. Below is a list of articles which illustrate how the more radical parts of that demographic think.

Pat Robertson is apparently upset that bookies are discounting his pal Donald Trump
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-robertson-has-a-warning-for-the-bookies-in-vegas-bet-against-trump-and-youll-lose-your-shirt/

Alex Jones of InfoWars thinks that a third of World population will die if Trump looses.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/alex-jones-if-trump-loses-a-world-war-will-kill-one-third-of-the-worlds-population/

As per my comment prior about the likely rebellion of Evangelical women, Evangelical leaders appear upset that rank and file Evangelicals aren't so excited about Donald Trump. Maybe this is a way of saying that grabbing women by the pussy is fine in the 21st Century....
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/right-wing-leaders-warn-vote-trump-or-face-a-hillary-clinton-police-state/

A guy who thinks he will be murdered if Hillary Clinton is elected President.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/dave-daubenmire-warns-that-hell-be-murdered-if-hillary-clinton-becomes-president/

Alex Jones again. He claims Hillary Clinton is a demon who smells like rotting meat.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/alex-jones-hillary-clinton-is-a-damn-demon-who-smells-like-rotting-meat/

Another Evangelical leader who is upset that the rank and file is being disobedient.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/tony-perkins-unbiblical-for-christians-to-criticize-trump-backers-if-they-werent-involved-in-the-primaries/

The New World Order just had to be involved.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/oak-initiative-trumps-grab-video-leaked-to-protect-new-world-order-from-gods-alpha-male/

Another scare story. Vote in Trump, or face a Hillary Clinton police state.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/right-wing-leaders-warn-vote-trump-or-face-a-hillary-clinton-police-state/

Christians Should Have Backed Clarence Thomas Even If They Believed Anita Hill
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/gary-bauer-christians-should-have-backed-clarence-thomas-even-if-they-believed-anita-hill/

Phyllis Schlafly may be dead, but her Sons are Carrying Their Mother’s Torch For Trump
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/phyllis-schlaflys-sons-carrying-their-mothers-torch-for-trump/

This is from before the last debate. Michael Savage Urges Trump To Talk About Hillary’s Lesbian Lovers, of which there is no proof of any sort that Hillary Clinton ever had a lesbian lover. But that fits with the anti-LGBT and anti-Democrat biases of this demographic.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/michael-savage-urges-trump-to-talk-about-hillarys-lesbian-lovers/

Stop the WAR ON MEN!
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/jesse-lee-peterson-leads-protest-telling-trump-accusers-to-stop-the-war-on-men/

A guy who says that if he dies, Hillary Clinton did it.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/gordon-klingenschmitt-wants-people-to-know-that-if-he-suddenly-dies-hillary-clinton-probably-did-it/

Another guy who says he'll be murdered if Hillary Clinton becomes President.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/dave-daubenmire-warns-that-hell-be-murdered-if-hillary-clinton-becomes-president/

Donald Trump will be holding a rally at a university founded by Pat Robertson (700 Club)
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/donald-trump-to-court-pat-robertsonagain/

A chap who was praying that God would bring Hillary Clinton down and confuse her mind. He should ask for a refund.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/rick-wiles-im-praying-for-god-to-bring-hillary-clinton-down-and-confuse-her-mind/

And then there is Ann Coulter, who claims that immigrants come from societies where every single level of society is criminal...
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/ann-coulter-immigrants-come-from-cultures-where-every-single-level-of-society-is-criminal/

The WAR on MEN rears its ugly head again.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-buchanan-the-system-is-rigged-against-white-men/

Remember Jim Bakker? He thinks that Obama Sounds Like ‘The Representative For Antichrist’
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/jim-bakker-obama-sounds-like-the-representative-for-antichrist/

Here we've got a guy who thinks that the elites will manufacture a 'lone wolf attack' on Trump. That Trump is part of the elites he ignores.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/michael-snyder-liberal-elites-may-manufacture-lone-wolf-attack-on-trump/

David Barton, a 'Historian' who has no scholastic background in history.
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/how-david-barton-earned-his-doctorate/

I'm sure you get the basic picture. Most of these people seem to be delusional at best. They are trying to peddle fear, and it isn't working, which is causing them to start to panic. By November 8th they should be really desperate.

Winter

About double standards:

If Hillary Clinton Groped Men

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/opinion/sunday/if-hillary-clinton-groped-men.html

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

Great pair of comments and yeah, its a weird part of the electorate (not only in the USA). I always learn, and this political season one of the great things was to see how 'unreligious' the Evangelical voter group is. I was under the illusion that the moment they - the Evangelicals - understood Trump was a serial adulterer and chronic liar, he'd be more unelectable as Rudy Giuliani to that group. Obviously I was wrong and this has been a great lesson. The discussions here in the comments have been enlightening (including your inputs obviously). Also those articles you linked to about the bizarre battle against science, its also mystifying.

What would be an interesting thought experiment is if an Evangelical voter was exposed to anti-Capitalistic ECONOMIC theory. Would they still remain 'Republicans' haha. Jesus Christ was the planet's first socialist, he wanted to share, he wanted the worst and poorest to be taken care of, inspite of them not necessarily 'pulling their weight' in the economy and of course Jesus Christ was also supportive of the government's right to collect taxes. So the Evangelicals are willing to suspend OTHER science from geology onwards, the life of the planet, history carved into stone for millions of years, then why not suspend far less precise theories like those of economics haha... The views of Bernie Sanders's politics are FAR closer to the PHILOSOPHY of the New Testament and Jesus Christ, than those of any other politician currently running on either side of the aisle. Obviously many Evangelicals do believe literally in the Bible and also take literally the Old Testament, haha, so yeah, maybe my argument falls down right there...

But the women of Evangelicals yeah, I think the Exit Polls will show PARTLY that effect, but I would guess that even the Exit Polls will under-count the true Evangelical female voter leakage out from Trump support, because some will be so ashamed of going against their own kind, a kind of betrayal, that they will keep it a very private secret, and not even admit to an Exit poll interviewer right after the vote. I would guess, the actual vote final count, and the Exit Poll final outcome - will quarrel by a few points, ie the Exit Poll could say its a 14% election result, and by the end of the night we see the TV networks reporting its in reality a 15% election result, and when the final tally is reported a few days after the election, its found to have been a 16% election result. And hidden in those last few percent, are exactly the type of voters you Wayne identified, women who will say they will vote for the Republican but end up not voting for Trump anyway, and vote for Hillary instead. And some will be so ashamed or secretive about it, they won't even admit it to the Exit Pollsters.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


@Tomi,

More like those women can't admit it. I have no idea how exit polling is done in the USA, but if the women's husband is beside her she will NOT admit she voted for Demon Hillary.

As to why Evangelicals support Trump...

Abortion and LBGT rights. Demon Hillary is going to destroy American families. Twice divorced, thrice married, twenty-five times accused of sexual assault serial liar Baby Christian Donald Trump won't.

Then there's the First Nations vote!

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/10/23/montana-poll-reflects-normal-election-thats-not-case-166178

twinsdad9901

Amazing. Trump the genius.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/25/trump-cuts-off-fundraising-events-for-republican-party.html

Wayne Borean


Where, oh where has my GOP gone?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/my-former-republican-party-1477353852?tesla=y

Wayne Borean


Did you hear about the guy who threatened the LA Islamic Center? Guess what - his sister used to work for Donald Trump Jr.

http://tonyortega.org/2016/10/26/sister-of-la-scientologist-arrested-for-muslim-threats-was-don-trump-jrs-executive-assistant/

Wayne Borean


The GOP has long had a racist wing, though it was fairly well hidden until this year. Here's an example.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/billings-candidate-accused-of-racist-remarks/article_d57752fe-95c6-5cb7-8133-1a2b84705756.html

Wayne Borean


And someone wrote an article about how men are fairly unaware of who their wives are going to vote for. This was dated Oct. 10, and there has probably been a further swing since then.

http://theweek.com/speedreads/654283/probably-dont-know-who-wife-voting

Tester

Don't you think that the pollsters know about these effects and try to factor them in somehow? These people are professionals and certainly know about how polls may be skewed depending on the environment it's being taken in.

That goes both ways, of course, so in the end it may just even itself out.

As much as there may be a female surge, I think there actually are also some people who would not admit voting for Trump.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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