Final Debate Review: One President vs One Petulant Child

So the last Trump vs Hillary debate is done. It will be remembered as the debate where Trump put himself and his personal acceptance ahead of the opinion of 200 million voters. I think this will damage him more than any other third debate ever, and will bring on a wave of condemnation by Republicans and more un-endorsements. I think he will walk that statement back, soon, and may be forced to Apple-igize or non-apologize for it.

As to the debate, we saw the mellow Trump, on downers. He kept his cool most of the way but started to lose his concentration on not interrupting about half-way in, and did ever more of the interruptions towards the end. On the issues, Trump had worked on several points, delivered a few of those moderately well, in particular keeping to a more-or-less single talking point per response, and developing it, rather than mentioning every right-wing talking point. As it is, he didn't have much to add to what was out there and a few of his attacks had already been fact-checked to be false, so their practical value would now be even less. He still is, a businessman, and his best argumnents were near his business background, on jobs, on trade, on the economy and taxes. He was also doing good Republican talking points on the Supreme Court topic, something significantly more coherent than his previous ramblings. Many Republicans will like the development of his debating skills in those areas and probably all would agree, this was the best debate Trump has delivered. He has taken coaching and it shows. Were it not for the promise to not accept the verdict of American voters but rather substitute his own judgment instead, then he could get close to a tie out of the debate.

Hillary was polished, calm, played safe, needled 'Donald' many times but not very roughly - I loved the Emmys - and worked constantly on her favorables. At every point of the debate she was Presidential. I would think most independents and moderates and undecideds will give the debate to her, she should end up having won the debate. The Democrats will all love of her of course (but not all Republicans will like what they heard from Trump). There were very pointed barbs that probably stung deep, like the one in response to Trump sexual assault defenses, that women know exactly that type of behavior and the excuses. I think the most damaging of the attacks on the issues other than election fraud, was the Putin spying and whether Trump accepts its Russians doing it. The ending statement was just about pitch-perfect, she's clearly had time to prep for this possibility and Trump was totally not prepared for it, so he fumbled around for his talking points and I would guess if we time it, Hillary went 5 or 10 seconds over, and Trump is at least 10 seconds under the 60 seconds they were allocated.

I was expecting a big attack from Hillary on some surprise, and it wasn't there. She did some hits on Trump but on familiar ground, like buying Chinese steel and hiring undocumented workers and not showing taxes, but I was expecting a bombshell. It may be that she had one, but decided (or had pre-calculated it with her team already, which is more likely, now that I think of it) that as Trump declared himself above the decision of American voters, that should be the story of the debate, and let it stand, don't bring any other issues now. Hillary can still use her TV ads and surrogates to run hits if she has other stuff to use. This is probably an impact as big as the 'p*ssygate' tapes, and Hillary made a good, solid rebuke of it in her response. I believe Trump didn't know how big a hole he just dug for himself (as he typically never does understand whenever he does big campaign mistakes). I am certain this will be the issue the Hillary campaign will use to push their narrative after the debate.

We saw a President on stage, a poised, calm, fully prepared and sensible President. And we saw a petulant child, out of his depth, blaming everybody, telling lies, claiming he hadn't said things he's said, arguing with the moderator, and interrupting. I believe many Republicans who voted or said they endorse Trump, felt ashamed by this charade. Hillary played both edges well, pointing out in a planned piece that Trump took an op-ed against Reagan in 1987 (saying same stuff as he now accuses of Obama) and then spontaneously when Trump pulled Bernie in to hit Hillary (rather well this time) Hillary slammed Trump on Bernie with the quote that Bernie calls Trump the most dangerous person ever to run. Haha, don't try that cheap trick against a pro debater. The real polling will probably give this something like a 55/45 or 60/40 level decision, I don't expect a 2 to 1 level drubbing like the first debate, but Hillary won more voter opinions than Trump won. The online polling obviously is bogus, that'll show now that Trump won as every debate always said, as those online polls allow multiple votes and Putin's minions are powering those. Of the horse race polls, which will start to come out around Saturday/Sunday that will have polling done in the next 2 days or so, I expect when we get the first 4 or 5 polls, the race will have moved into Hillary's favor another point or maybe two. It will mostly be undecideds now breaking for Hillary, and not so much lost polling support of Trump. But the erosion of Trump's Republican base voter support will continue, and I believe the enthusiasm of Republican voters will diminish, somewhat, in the aftermath of this debate. They will be getting very demoralized, as Trump had to knock this out of the park, and he didn't even hit the baseball. Trump will now face unprecedented pressure from everybody to acknowledge in public that the voters get to decide who becomes President.

I do feel sorry for Hillary Clinton. She's that talented and prepared, she would have deserved a better Republican than this. Hopefully in 2020 at least the Republicans will nominate someone who is sane and coherent and prepared. This campaign for Hillary has been like trying to play billiards on a cruise ship that is in a vicious storm, constantly scrambling the balls on the billiard table. Still, its now done. We have 20 days left, people are already voting, and Hillary will run away with a landslide election victory. I am curious to see, will she reach neutral popularity in Gallup polling by election day. She just might.


ADDENDUM - After the Tweets

I again re-lived the whole debate via contemporary Twitter feed. I think there were 8 major moments, four on each side. Trump well, he managed to damage himself. He is struggling with the worst Hispanic level of support ever measured, and the debate was in Nevada. So Trump decided to speak Spanish and use the not-nice term 'hombre' It did not strike me, as a Finn, as a particularly onorous term, thinking more of some old Cowboy Western style movie. But plenty of Twitter users were offended. I think its safe to say, the Hispanics noticed.

The sexual assault groping issue went badly as probably could be expected. But that also went even worse for Trump than any sane person would say, in that he said he hasn't done anything wrong, because he even didn't apologize to Melania. Yeah. Good choice of word. Melania is already on videotape saying how Trump apologized. But now that issue - the most damaging tape from Trump's past so far, was given new life and will not help him with women.

Well, then there is of course the fact that Trump is having the worst gender gap ever measured. And how did he end the debate? By calling Hillary a nasty woman. Even a man gets it, that this is not how you win over women voters.

So lets switch gears. There were four moments from Hillary's side that could also be summarized by a single word. I'll start with the moderator slam. Energy. Hillary was so prepped for the Wikileaks quote, knowing they might use the one about her wanting open borders. And Chris Wallace did take the sleazy journalist short-cut (he is a Republican) to try to 'gotcha' Hillary with it. But she was prepped. So her answer, if you finished the sentence, I was talking about energy... OUCH. Yes, an open border not for PEOPLE to come across, but for USA to import and export electricity and natural gas etc between USA, Mexico and Canada, that makes sense (we have that in Europe for example between Finland, Sweden and Norway, selling electricity across the borders). That was just superb prep. And with that, except for the hardest of hard-core Hillary-haters, she took Wikileaks totally out of the picture, for the last 20 days. SMART and effective.

Then there was the word 'thirty'. Hillary loved it when Trump challeged her on not achieving anything in 30 years. A very precise but cutting rebuke, ending with Hillary helping catch Osama Bin Laden while Trump was doing celebrity Apprentice. Ouch. But a very good prepped speech on highlighting her strengths vs Trump's weaknesses.

The Trump bragged about his Hotel in Las Vegas. Hillary fast on her feet, and after Trump had been interrupting for an hour, hit him with 'made with Chinese steel' Bam! The word China stung Trump and will resonate especially in Ohio, Pennsylvania, coal and steel country. 

But Hillary's hardest hit is the word puppet. That was very very smart and devastating. After Trump did a good job of attacking Hillary about how 'weak' she was and how much Putin didn't respect her, for Hillary to hit Trump, yeah, Putin wants Trump as his puppet. That probably would have been the killer line of the debate. Except for one word. I gave 4 from Hillary but only 3 from Trump. The most devastating word, if you summarize the whole debate into single words to describe its main moments.

Its suspense. That Trump said he won't commit to accepting the verdict of the American voters, and he will keep the nation in suspense. I don't think this will be allowed to stand. I do think this will be the final straw for many who were on the edge of their seats, should they stay with Trump or bail. And many opportunists who were on the Trump Train, but seeing it will be a total train-wreck, will now find their 'principled' way out. If he won't respect American voters, I can't endorse him anymore, and they will start to un-endorse him. I would expect a new wave of those un-endorsements now. So eight words to describe the 8 main moments. From Hillary its Energy, China, Nasty and Puppet. From Trump its Hombre, Apologize, Nasty and Suspense. That concludes our election season 2016 debate analysis blogs. Thank you for playing along.

If this debate left you with a really nasty taste in your mouth, a sick feeling in your stomach, and you want to try to wash it out with some laughter. I released my 13th book. Its 1001 Jokes about Donald Trump. Get it while he's still the alleged candidate, and laugh. At this point Laughter is the Best Medicine (I already emailed the Hillary Clinton campaign a shared licence complimentary copy of the book). Its 235 pages long, has 1,450 jokes in total, and only costs $4.99. I am showing 1 free page of jokes every day from now until election day to help promote the ebook, and the first 3 pages of jokes are already up for you to enjoy even if you don't buy the book. So lets laugh at Trump. See it here TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Comments

[Winter]

The best outcome for Hillary would have been stoking the fire of war between Trump and the GOP. Ideally, to the point where Trump calls upon his supporters to not vote for down ticket Republicans.

Could anything be used to stoke that fire. Say, the admission that Trump does not think the voters should decide who becomes president?

[Winter]

Just a quote:

Shortly after the debate wrapped, though, Kellyanne Conway——his campaign manager and clean-up crew—clarified his stance on CNN.
“Donald Trump will accept the results of the election,” she said, “because he will win the election.”

From:
‘I’LL KEEP YOU IN SUSPENSE’
Donald Trump: I Might Not Accept Election Results
Refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power, the GOP nominee floated the possibility at the final presidential debate that the race is ‘rigged’ and he won’t concede if he loses.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/19/donald-trump-pledges-to-deport-bad-hombres-and-praises-obama.html

[grouch]

A local PBS station is airing "Ball of Confusion: The 1968 Election". At some point during this unending election process, I mentioned to my two adult children that I was scared that the Dumpster and his trumpanzees might take us to 1968. Naturally, they were both confused and I tried to explain it. (You had to live through it to understand how horrific that time was). That documentary does a pretty good job of showing the craziness. I don't know if it's available online.

[grouch]

Tomi:

Trump on business? He's gonna do for the country what he did for casinos?

I think Hillary missed an opportunity there as Wallace wanted to rush along.

[grouch]

Winter:

Re: "stoking the fire"

The elections in battleground states are nearly all run by Republicans. Accepting Trump's claim that the election is rigged means all wins by Republicans are illegitimate wins. The GOP probably doesn't like that idea.

That's pretty good stoking. :D

[Winter]

@grouch
I think it was smart of Hillary. Trump knows how to talk business, even if he is pretty bad at doing it. Better to get him on a subject he blunders in.

[Winter]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/clinton-nukes-trumps-remaining-chances/504761/

[grouch]

I have to admit that tv special effects are getting much better. It was actually hard to see the strings attached to Donald.

[grouch]

Hey, another one from The Atlantic. The "Petulant Child" (love the title, Tomi) wants to be a "tin-pot dictator":

The Most Irresponsible Thing Ever Said in a Presidential Debate

"Trump’s refusal to endorse a core principle of American democracy, on stage during a general-election debate with much of the country watching, might be the weirdest, and most disturbing, moment yet in a campaign marked by breathtaking violations of protocol and decorum. Faced with accusations from his critics on both the left and the right that he is a wannabe tin-pot dictator, Trump rose to the occasion, determinedly confirming the attack. It was perhaps the most irresponsible thing ever said during a general-election debate."

http://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2016/10/third-presidential-debate-clinton-trump/504686/

[cornelius]

Just at at his face

http://www.trbimg.com/img-5808567f/turbine/ct-trump-hillary-clinton-nasty-woman-20161019-001/1550/1550x872

He didn't seem to enjoy the evening. This is the face of a sad moron.

[grouch]

cornelius:

That might as well have the caption, "I love Mussolini."

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

First, note that I added an ADDENDUM to the above, if you read the early version. The addendum is at the bottom. A way to summarize the debate in 8 words.

Second. CNN had a real poll. They found 52% say Hillary won, 39% say Trump won. Not bad guess by me, in how I thought it would be judged haha...

(now going back to reading the various reviews and comments)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Cassander Troy]

Trump is not a businessman, he just plays one on TV. That is what he is hiding in his tax returns. Most of the building with his name on them are no longer his. His assets are shrinking, and all the cashflow comes from his brand, the successful businessman that he plays on TV.

[paul]

Obviously, the Trump brand will be totally destroyed after the elections when all the Republicans will be blaming Trump for losing big time (and scamming them for money in the same time).

I am already looking forward to the year 2017 to see how many more of Trump's businesses will go bankrupt.

[grouch]

Tomi:

Re: "suspense" being "devastating"

Donald Trump Confirms At Third Debate He Is A Domestic Insurrectionist

"Whatever reason Trump has, his stance is fitting. Putin is waging a global campaign to discredit the very idea of democracy. Trump has joined his cause. The debate culminated in Trump refusing to pledge that he would accept the outcome of the election – a statement of disloyalty to the American system of government without precedent since 1860, when Southern Democrats vowed to leave the union if the Republican party prevailed."

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/trump-threat-to-american-democracy.html

[Winter]

It is obviously all a Clinton conspiracy

Commentary: There are way too many coincidences in the race for the White House
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-donald-trump-scandals-coincidences-20161019-story.html

Hey, here is a corespondent that deplores the campaign tactics of the Clintons against the Republican nominee. Nothing about the fact that it was ALL his own words that were used against him.

From the same newspaper:
Column: Donald Trump just lost his last chance to turn this election around
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/zorn/ct-trump-hillary-clinton-nasty-woman-debate-20161019-story.html#nt=summary

"In the second debate, Trump rewrote a potentially favorable narrative for himself by interjecting that, if he were president, Clinton would be in jail for the way she mishandled sensitive email when she was secretary of state.
I would call it unbelievable that he made an even more tin-eared assault on American political traditions in the third debate, but nothing is unbelievable when it comes to Donald Trump.
"That’s horrifying," Clinton said as, backstage, her campaign team was no doubt spraining their wrists giving one another emphatic high-fives.
Trump’s last chance to turn his fortunes around vanished in a misguided flurry of opacity, arrogance and vanity.
How fitting. How inevitable. How relieving."

[grouch]

Does anyone happen to have a copy of the Official Rules of Rigging? I lost mine and can't remember if it takes 2 dead cats to equal 1 dead voter or if it's a 1 to 1 ratio.

(I have to dig through the pets because the local cemetary is owned by a Republican. Naturally, all those stiffs will vote GOP).

[grouch]

Gee, thanks Winter. You posted that Chicago Tribune link, knowing full well it would lead to other, more sinister links there. Now I gotta worry about them crazy Canucks!

Commentary: Canadians tell America it's great. How dare they?

"The threat became apparent earlier this week when a Toronto-based creative agency called The Garden launched an unprovoked cyberkindness attack on innocent American internet users.

Using the phrase "Tell America it's great," this shadowy Canuck company encouraged Canadians to get on social media and help cheer up Americans who might be feeling beaten down by the brutal 2016 presidential campaign."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/huppke/ct-canada-america-great-huppke-20161019-story.html

[Reminds me of another time, back in my youth, when a Canadian jumped in to give us a much-needed lift:

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/gordonsinclairtheamericans.htm
]

[grouch]

Oh, background to above:

http://www.tysknews.com/Depts/Our_Culture/americans_story.htm

[Winter]

Another debate coach grades the candidates:

Debate coach: Trump's strategy mistakes too serious to overcome
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/20/opinions/debate-coach-grading-third-presidential-debate/index.html

No surprise here:
Overall grades
Clinton: A-
Trump: F