Countdown to the End of Trump: 5 Weeks. Hillary up by 4.0% and back to winning 3 of the 4 states that decide the election

The first Debate was a week ago. Its 5 weeks to election day, 35 days from today. Polling average: Hillary ahead by 3.7% right now, based on the average of the first 6 polls out after the debate. (She was at 1.6% last week, then 1.1% two weeks ago, 2.2% three weeks and 3.4% four weeks ago in RCP average by the 4-way polls). Hillary's debate bounce was 2.1 points. There are 5.8% undecided voters by those 6 polls since the debate. If we allocate those voters proportionately, the polls tell us that the national race is at 4.0% today (was 1.7%, 1.1%, 2.5% and 3.7%). Thats a race now nearly as good as how badly Obama beat Romney in 2012 final count and far ahead of where Obama was to Romney in 2012 or Obama was to McCain at this point in the two last elections. 

The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 322 (292, 294, 311, 340) EV votes for Hillary, 216 (246, 244, 227 and 198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. Since last week Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina have flipped back to Hillary. So now against the last election (Obama-Romney 2012) Trump is up in 2 states (Ohio and Iowa) while Hillary is up in 1 (North Carolina).

The TV ad wars have Hillary and her SuperPAC up with TV ads in Arizona, Colorado Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania plus the one congressional district of Nebraska. The total Hillary and partners ad buy is about 19 million dollars in those states. Trump is up with a campaign of 7.5 million dollars supported by 2 million of his partners. So in total ads bought, Hillary outnumbers Trump by 2 to 1. In reality, by actual TV ads seen, Hillary has a larger advantage because she bought most of the ads far in advance at lower rates. Then lets look at the RCP polling in the eight states which decides the race:

Florida - Hillary leads by 2.8% (last week Hillary led by 0.5%, previous week Trump led by 0.9%, 0.2%, before that week Hillary led by 3.6%)
North Carolina - Trump leads by 1.8% (last week Trump led by 1.4%, previous week Hillary led by 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.3%)
Ohio - Trump leads by 3.8 (last week Trump led by 2.0%, two weeks ago Trump 2.0%, previous Hillary lead of 1.8%, and 3.3%)
Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 2.1% (was  1.8%, 6.2%, 5.8% and 6.0%)

NOTE - easiest way for Trump to win is to win all 4 of the above states. If he loses ONE of them (Pennsylvania) then he can also win by collecting some combination of these next four states but needs at least 2: And note, Trump HAS to win 3 of the above, for this alternate map even to work. Currently Trump cannot win the White House even if he won all these four states because he's losing in 3 of the above. So for Trump's alternate path, we have 4 more states:

Iowa - Trump leads by 5.0% (last week was Trump led by 5.0%, previous 4.3%) 
Nevada - Hillary leads by 0.2% (last week Trump led by 2.2%, was Hillary lead 0.2%) 
Colorado - Hillary leads by 1.8% (last week Trump led by 0.5%, was Hillary lead 3.0%) 
New Hampshire - Hillary leads by 6.0% (last week Hillary led by 5.4% was 6.0%) 

So the alternate map for Trump which did look like it was possible, has now fallen out, as too many of the big 4 states are out of Trump's reach. Trump currently has no way to win. Trump would have to flip back Florida, North Carolina and either Pennsylvania; or some combination of Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire. And all polls are now tanking for Trump. This does not mean the end for Trump by these numbers, only that currently he is going in the wrong direction and fast. Please also remember, Hillary is making a serious play for Arizona plus a play for Georgia. If Hillary can flip AZ or GA, then the above math becomes meangless, even if Trump won Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania AND Iowa, if Hillary steals Arizona, she becomes President. Hillary is back at a BIG cushion heading into the last 5 weeks with the wind at her back for the battleground states. 

If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here.

After my first initial debate preview on this blog, I wrote a later, more detailed blog with the blow-by-blow debate analysis which is here. It examines the techniques Hillary used to trap Trump and get him off his game.

And my full Sept 1 Election Scorecard, it is here.

Campaign Staff. We're starting to see campaign resources catalogues. Not yet a perfect picture but many of the critical states are being reported. In general terms Hillary has about three times the paid staff as the partnership of Trump and the Republican party. I've found 1,480 for Hillary in 7 states including Arizona and Georgia, and 480 corresponding Trump+GOP staff in five of the same states not any in AZ or GA. But I don't yet have the full picture. I'm working on it..

Of the Senate Race, while we are here. RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) says 50/50 even split which goes to the Democrats as the VP gets to break ties in the Senate. (It was at 49/51 last week, 49/51, 49/51, 50/50). The new pick-up is North Carolina. They gave previous pick-ups for Democrats out of Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a pick-up for Republicans out of Nevada, for a net +4 (was +3, +3, +4) Senate Seats to Democrats.

The House Map by RCP is also up now. Currently if the Democrats were to sweep all 15 of the 'toss up' seats for the House as well as of course winning all that RCP projects they are ahead - the Democrats would be 15 seats short of the majority in the House. If we assign the toss-ups exactly evenly, the House would remain in Republican hands by a 22 seat majority.

Of my forecast. I am publishing my updated forecast based on the debate and its measured aftermath. That blog coming shortly today. I will update this paragraph with the link (My previous forecast said double-digit victory for Hillary, as of Aug 1)

For those interested in the details of the race, two weeks ago I did an aggregation of the two '50 state' polls with the RCP in-state polling for the same period to give the best statistical view to every state as of August, published anywhere in the open on the internet. (I hope to update that after the month of September is done)

Next major scheduled event in race is the VP debate

Comments

[Hubert Lamontagne]

cow: That drone thing isn't even proven yet. Snopes link (Snopes verdict is 'unproven'):
http://www.snopes.com/julian-assange-drone-strike/