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October 12, 2016



Why My East Texas Neighbors are Voting for Trump
It’s not because they’re stupid rednecks.

by Joe R. Lansdale

Most of what Trump is selling shouldn’t convince a distracted 12-year-old, and certainly it’s hard to see how a conniving real estate tycoon represents the average person, but those are the people he has made the greatest inroads with. It certainly isn’t due to his sterling personality. He always seems like the mean little boy whose last fun moment was beating his pet hamster to death with a chair leg.

"Joe R. Lansdale is the author of more than 40 novels and 300 short pieces of fiction and nonfiction. He is Writer in Residence at Stephen F. Austin State University."

Millard Filmore

A poll, hopefully this is new news.


Repeating from the older thread as I expect many will no longer be visiting it:


I know that I read this information somewhere other than from Tomi:

"... but Trump is up to his ears, just the rape lawsuits he's been successfully sued and he's paid to settle, are SIX in his past. Plus a dozen sexual assault lawsuits he's also settled."

Unfortunately, I can't find a single corroborating source. My Google-fu skills are lacking! Can someone point me at a (reputable) source?


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi sgtrock

I know USA Today had a story about part of it, the 20 lawsuits. Its apparently not all sexual assaults, its a range of sexual harassment & sexual discrimination.

On the rapes/settled. I only found two. Are in this story by Fusion, came out at the time of the Convention and now reprinted & updated. There is a third rape allegation but that rape would have taken place in the 1990s, so understandable misunderstanding, a rape that occurred (allegedly occurred) two decades ago - but is only now in court.

I think there is another woman who also is now part of this last case as a second victim or another woman has filed, am not sure.

I do recall seeing/reading an article that talked about 6 settled cases of rape. It may be that the article said 6 cases of rape and sexual assault where only 2 of the actual cases were rapes and the other 4 were other types of sexual assault. I didn't read deeply into the article when I saw it, it was one of those speed-crash-reading/catching up times when I had a cazillion things to cover in a short period of time. But good that you followed up on this. The tally seems to be 2 settled cases where he was accused of rape, with at least one more woman from 20 years ago now suing also for rape then. Other sexual harassment, discrimination and assault type of cases then also are included in those 20.

PS anyone else, if you find others that these 2 articles missed, pls contribute with links.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Haven't seen a link to Warren Buffett's response to Trump mentioning him in the debate...

Some Tax Facts for Donald Trump

Answering a question last night about his $916 million income tax loss carryforward in 1995, Donald Trump stated that “Warren Buffett took a massive deduction.” Mr. Trump says he knows more about taxes than any other human. He has not seen my income tax returns. But I am happy to give him the facts.



Your latest forecast done on October 4 (before the famous Friday when Trump's campaign died and nowadays Paul Ryan is not defending Trump anymore), says that the landslide is 13%. Also you wrote that today that "I now expect the race to end up with a 13% margin for Hillary". Does that mean that even NOW you expect the race to end up with 13% margin for Hillary?

Millard Filmore

"Talk about the wikileaks ..."

Oddly enough there is a comment over at on just this subject, what with wikileaks being supplied by Russia's government. The comment follows the link.

Well, I have to admit, while Russia is not the Soviet Union, the fact that we have a foreign power working in cahoots with one of our major political parties and the essential effect/response from within the GOP itself is essentially MEH, tells me that the GOP is quite possibly irredeemable. Still I find it completely unfathomable that Trump calls for the DCC to be hacked by Russia and guess what, damn if it isn’t! Then those very same hacks are delivered to him while he’s on the campaign trail. Our Media looks at this and is essentially still playing the role of an army of Entertainment Tonight anchors.

It may not matter THIS election, when they’re running the equivalent of a flaming bag of shit in a brown paper bag (of the highest quality shit and in a magnificently constructed bag (from overseas)). I have every bit of faith that Ms. Clinton isn’t overlooking this and you may very well see a quiet parade of folks being brought to trial for this (perhaps as a way to give the media something else to do) while she is busy enacting the remainder of her agenda.


Looks like the sex stuff isn't dying down any time soon:

This can get really interesting if it continues in that fashion.


I javen't yet seen the wikileaks emails. Is anything even remotely in the same ballpark as what Trump has said and done? Telling bankers you will promote trade is not exactly earth shattering news?

Or is it just trying to say anything negstive about Hillary, anything at all?

What am I missing?



I haven't seenthe mails as well, but from what I read it's just the same nonsense as always when it comes to politicians' trustworthiness.

Having to talk nice to some group is part of the business, what else whould you expect them to do in front of Wall Street people? Antagonize them like Trump does is certainly not going to work if you want results. Ultimately it's just the same old Trump game of making a mountain out of a molehill.



Even if there were a way to verify wikileaks dumps, they'd still be "nothingburgers" as they've been called here and elsewhere.

It's another lame attempt to divert and distract from Trump the Dumpster's bragging about sexual assault that he believes he's entitled to because he's superior.

Meanwhile, just plug this into Google: not in my locker room.

There has been enough time for coaches and athletes to vent their repudiation of Dumpster's remarks. My son is a p.e. teacher, has coached high school football for 12 years, was on his college football team, high school football team and a couple other sports before that. His exact words on hearing the Dumpster's were, "Not in my locker room!" Guessing that it would be a common reaction of those who participate in sports, I checked Google. Sho' nuff.

Bragging of sexual assault in every locker room I've seen first-hand would get you ostracized or kicked out, at minimum, and more likely a blanket party. Even during the hormone-crazed teen years, it's all about who has the most girls *chasing*, *following*, *wanting* "you".

The Dumpster's description of entitled taking of another person's right over control of body and intimate contact is disgusting, enfuriating and illustrates a sick mind.

The repukes are all disingenuously pretending it's about the naughty words. This is indefensible.


Trump, the GOP, and the Fall

John Scalzi

But note well: Donald Trump is not a black swan, an unforeseen event erupting upon an unsuspecting Republican Party. He is the end result of conscious and deliberate choices by the GOP, going back decades, to demonize its opponents, to polarize and obstruct, to pursue policies that enfeeble the political weal and to yoke the bigot and the ignorant to their wagon and to drive them by dangling carrots that they only ever intended to feed to the rich. Trump’s road to the candidacy was laid down and paved by the Southern Strategy, by Lee Atwater and Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove, by Fox News and the Tea Party, and by the smirking cynicism of three generations of GOP operatives, who have been fracking the white middle and working classes for years, crushing their fortunes with their social and economic policies, never imagining it would cause an earthquake.


Why we shouldn’t forgive the Republicans who sold their souls

"Of the remarkable things we have learned this election year, the most significant is that the current Republican Party is unfit to lead the country. It has failed the greatest test a political leader or party can face, and failed spectacularly. It has abandoned its principles out of a combination of cowardice and opportunism. It has worked to place in the White House the most dangerous threat to U.S. democracy since the Civil War. And perhaps just as revealing, it has in the process engineered its own suicide. Not only has the party refused to save the country, but also it has proved too helpless, too incompetent and too craven even to save itself."

Wayne Borean

This blogger made an interesting discovery when she was viewing the candidate's donation pages. Trump likes big numbers.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Some notes I just picked up on quick overview of news of the race.

Utah. A local poll (not/yet on RCP) has race tied between Trump and Hillary at 26% each but McMullin is already at 22%. McMullin is a local boy, a Mormon, and a Republican. If he's now within 4 points of Trump, he'll pass Trump easily by election day, because Mormons are the most anti-Trump group among Republicans and Utah is mostly Mormons. Here's the palace intrigue part. If Trump + McMullin = 48% then yes, its possible for Hillary to win with her 26% as long as McMullin split the GOP for example by 25/23. Johnson is taking 16%, that is likely now to decline but not exactly sure which way it will go, except we can be sure Johnson votes will not go to Trump. And there are undecideds of course. But now something like various Republicans endorsing Hillary and the one Utah manned campaign office can do wonders for this weird outpost that will have a genuine 4-way race.

In the Republican Civil War, an online activist by the name of Mike Cernovich (lawyer, wrote a book) who has over 100,000 Twitter followers and is some kind of fringe revolutionary, sounds like a Tea Party type, has written a hostile threatening oppen letter to the GOP demanding the GOP close ranks with Trump or else they (his thugs) will come and intimidate GOP local candidate offices one-by-one. And that they - his mob - are not affiliated with Trump but will now campaign for him - and once the 2018 mid-terms come along, they will campaign for anyone who runs against GOP candidates who were against Trump now. And these hooligans have no love for the GOP and will not mind if they lose in this election as long as they try to get Trump to win. Nice bunch.

BUT it does highlight the 'doomed if you do, but doomed if you don't' aspect of the GOP leadership dilemma. And now Obama is weighing in - haha, perfectly boxing them further in. For some on the fence, if they now move away from Trump, it will seem like Obama was pushing a Republican politician, and they hate Obama of course.

In the House Race, Nancy Pelosi the former Speaker of the House when the Democrats held the House, is now campaigning actively on a mission to retake the House. She floated that idea about two months ago, and at that time most felt it was a fool's errand. No leadership in the Democratic party talked about taking the House before the Convention bounce. But now she does dare to talk about this mission more openly, which I believe means she has seen their internal numbers and thinks they look good. Not necessarily to take the House but good enough that its within reach and worth fighting for. And in that mission, she's also raking in the money. Raised 34 million dollars in the last three months.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul

Yeah, the current official position is that I stand by the Oct 4 forecast as I do not have enough numbers to suggest an alternative. I think its safe to say that the sex tape has caused a collapse of Trump's support and the election is likely to end up worse for Trump (bigger margin for Hillary) but also, that we know Trump supporters are 'irredeemable' haha, they are loyal and nutcase fanatical cultists. It may be that Trump bleeds only about the level that I had forecasted to happen 'in any case' and the damage does not extend deeper than that. Listening to some Trumpsters on TV interviews, boy they are delusional. Facts will not matter to them.

With that, I wrote into the end of the previous discussion thread already but repeating here for you. I do expect the forecast to change and when I have enough numbers to be able to say so, I will. I have done preliminary modeling of the outcome and Trump could end up with something close to 38% of the final vote (similar to my current forecast) or could end up with as low as under 30%. Now, the high end does not necessarily mean a bigger margin for Hillary, if those non-Trump late converts go now to Johnson and stay there.

The biggest single cause for Trump support to fall, is likely the dropping enthusiasm of the Republican voters. I think the GOP 'Civil War' is real but MOST of those who participate in it, are in and around Washington DC, not in the nation at large. There are pockets of areas where the Civil War has local breaches (say in Ohio) but most states, I believe most Republican voters will not take up arms in this Civil War one way or the other. So to some degree its a 'management struggle' for power. It may get far more media attention for being like a storm-in-a-teacup where the media fixate on elected official views, rather than digging into voter views. If the Civil War results in a serious national breach (like in the above comment I talked about that one activist) then Trump would see more damage but its not yet certain.

We also have clear early anecdotal evidence that there is a small 'pendulum swing back' from the sheer shock of the Sex Tape scandal, to more 'I will forgive and forget this' type of reaction to it, over a bit of time. Some who were so hostile against Trump may discover in the next few weeks, they hate/fear Hillary more. That is certainly a large part of Trump's strategy now. Go full negative, go full mud-slinging.

BUT the Democrats have such a strong high-ground, and can see with sane eyes that this is an adult vs a child, the mud-slinging is likely not going to dampen to any meaningful way the Democratic support but then it will again, help drive down Republican enthusiasm and some non-Trump-Cultists will stay home, disgusted and not vote.

Anyway, paul, I believe the forecast will change. I don't have data to even verify that, and don't have enough data to know how much or how little. Its likely the election result will have a larger polling difference than the 13% which I currently have in my calculated forecast. It could get to a 16% or 18% level, similar to what I had in August, or could get even past 20% for Hillary, if Trump continues to burn down his own side and engage in warfare against his side of the political race.

Rest assured I will let you know. And I will be giving my thinking here in the comments as it evolves and what factors we will get coming in, to impact that calculation

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Onto paul's point. We just have the 3rd pollster out with data from after the Sex Tape. So far Rasmussen, Reuters/Ipsos and NBC/WSJ have done a national 4-way poll that is fully or at least partially after the Tape. I took the RCP average from 9 Oct (reflects 8 Oct status) as the situation just before the Tape, and compare the average of those 3 polls:

Before Tape: H 44.6%, T 40.3%, J 6.5%, S 2.0%, with 6.6% undec
After Tape: H 44.3%, T 37.7%, J 7.0%, S 2.0%, with 9.0% undec

So Hillary is flat. Trump lost 2.7% in three days. One in 5 of the Trump-quitters went to Johnson, the other 4 in 5 went to sit in undecided (some may be there only for a while, and RETURN to Trump).

The big issue here is not the split, up from 4.3% to 6.7% while yes, very bad for Trump as people are now voting - but its his support collapse. He is now at under 38% where he has not been since mid August (in the Hillary Clinton Convention bounce aftermath).

The REALLY relevant number for this whole election to follow is Trump's number. Hillary's number is ALWAYS too low because her turn-out-the-vote machine superiority is against all 3 of her rivals so she'll gain where others lose. Don't worry about the race between them. Look at Trump's number. At this point in time, 4 weeks to election day, you have to be ADDING voters, your % has to go up, nearer to 50% (or even above it). That Trump is going in the wrong direction - that was happening BEFORE the Sex Tape - and Trump is now down 3.8 points from his peak !!! That is SS Titanic sinking. Or no, not Titanic, its the SS Costa Concordia, that had the hole in the side of the boat, the Italian Ship whose cowardly Captain abandoned ship before the women and children haha.. Trump has a slow leak that is dooming his campaign, and that leak was there before the Tape. Only the Tape has now caused a new fissure in the ship's hull and more water rushed in.

If you want to watch one number, watch the national Trump % because of the strong sentiment against him (and a 4-way race), that number will not grow significantly from now until Election Day. By far the most of the remainder goes to Hillary, obviously as she gets 48% just for being the Democrat even in a 4-way race.

Now, we do need more data to see is this 37%-38% stable for Trump or is there still leakage from that level. But note, the lower we come towards 30%, the more we expell any remaining semi-sane Trumpsters, and are left with only Deplorables and Cultists. He does have a base of support who will not be swayed by any conceivable arguments up to and including Trump literally shooting someone.

Just remember, whatever is the final 'stable' Trump number, the election-day final result will have him about 1 or 2 points BELOW that number because of Hillary's GOTV advantage. If Trump stabilizes at say 38%, then expect the final Nov 9 count to find Trump with between 36% and 37% of the vote. The final count will be about 1 or 2 points below the 'stabilized' final Trump number.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Oh, gosh. This I thought of a couple of times in the past 24h hours and forgot to mention. But its HUGE. One of worst things to hit SS Trumpitania.

There are two major Republican fund-raisers who demand REFUNDS from Trump on their donations.

One. If this was the public press news, in the immediate aftermath of P*ssygate - that means a STAMPEDE of every other major donor wanting THEIR money back TOO. This is the 'bank run' phenomenon that causes banks to collapse - except those Billionaires and multi-Millionaires who HAVE contributed to Trump - they are no dummies. They move fast and they have clout. And they will demand their money back immediately (most who will not get a penny) and ALL of the 'good will' donations to Trump will now end among the rich donor class. There are some who made the calculation to fund Trump for whatever reasons (being more Deplorables themselves) but that part of the GOP that Manafort managed to bring in, to fund Trump - that now vanished.

And some may get some of their money back. And this explains why Trump TV ad buy is far less than he promised, and why he CANCELLED some of his TV ad buys. He's now running out of money. Trump CAN and will beg for money from his small donors (his victims) but the big money ended. Trump's will be the most cash-starved major Campaign ever in any race. This is a level of the collapse that I had not thought of, but it is YET ANOTHER bulkhead that has now failed.

For example Trump and Pence were supposed to hold a Fund-raiser in New York. Its been cancelled. There is no more big money coming in. Right when you needed it the most, it collapsed.

BTW on the 'other shoe will drop' story or rather drip-drip-drip of continuous pain - a Miss Teen USA now telling the world that Trump was walking in, unannounced into the dressing rooms of teens as young as 15, while they were changing clothes and were thus often naked. PERVERT !!!

What man does that? Other than a pervert. Even if you 'own' the show, what man does that. Walking in on teen girls naked, unannounced, without knocking and asking politely, is everybody dressed, a 65 year old man would like to come in and talk to you girls as you prepare for the next segment of the show...

So I believe this Miss Teen USA story is likely to be in the news today, refueling the sexual morals argument against Trump and his perversions and lust for teens.

If you weren't following the US domestic politics before the US Presidential race, there was a growing outrage among Republicans about the Supreme Court decision about discrimination against gays. One of their favorite scare-arguments that Republicans were repeating everywhere, is that 'sexual predators' as transgender men would go lurk in women's bathrooms to spy on the women.

Now that party nominated a man who REGULARLY walked in on NAKED teen girls to oogle at their bodies. PERVERT !!!

So yeah, I kinda expect this story to be in the news today. I hope it will be enormously huge, and help prolong the pain of Trumpistas, and have his apologists come onto TV to defend a pervert man walking in on naked girls - especially then if any of those Trump apologists have previously said that transgender 'men' might be lurking in women's toilets to see (what can you see in a women's toilet, compared to a Miss Teen USA pageant dressing room haha)

drip drip drip the sexual stories come in about Trump. Not good, I'd say.

His GOP big donor money now in anger and fury. That is yet another fight his tiny-staff, over-stretched, super-stressed Campaign had not planned to be having this close to election day. I can't imagine the existing Trump staff remaining, some must feel the stress is far too great, the stain far too bad, and just depart. Resign. Quit.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


Here is the link

Former Miss Arizona: Trump 'just came strolling right in' on naked contestants


I do not even know what comes after opportunist?

GOP lawmakers twist into Trump-shaped knot

The comments to this entry are closed.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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