Countdown to the End of Trump: 3 Weeks to Go - 1 more debate left, Hillary up by 7.5%

We're counting down and now its only 3 weeks to election day, 21 days from today. Polling average: Hillary ahead by 7.1% right now, based on the average of the first 9 polls out after the October Surprise earthquake videotape of 'p*ssygate' that altered the race. (She was at 4.8% last week, was 3.7%, 1.6%, 1.1%, 2.2%, 3.4%in RCP average by the 4-way polls of previous weeks). Hillary is at her highest level she's ever been in the 4-way polls, now averaging 46.2%. Trump has fallen further below 40% and is now at 39.1%. It seems absolutely certain now, that we have indeed passed 'Peak Trump' when he was at 41.5% three weeks ago. The Undecided voter count is shrinking BUT TRUMP IS NOT GAINING. Trump is BLEEDING while the undecided count is shrinking. This is a dead Campaign walking. There are only 5.7% undecided voters. Even if we allocate those voters proportionately (ie give Trump his proportional share), the current polls tell us that the national race is at 7.5% today (was 5.1% 4.0%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 2.5% and 3.7%). Thats a race at this point AHEAD of where Obama beat John McCain on election day of 2008! Furthermore both races 2008 and 2012 showed a race getting tighter one month out, but now for Hillary, the trend is now going in Hillary's favor (was doing that even before the sex tape).  

The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 322 (340, 322, 292, 294, 311, 340) EV votes for Hillary, 216 (198, 216, 246, 244, 227 and 198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. Since last week Ohio have flipped again back to Trump and he popped up again back up to above 200 EV votes but is several STATES behind from any chance of winning to get to 270. So now compared against the last election (Obama-Romney 2012) Trump is up in 2 states (Iowa, Ohio) while Hillary is up in 1 state (North Carolina).

The TV ad wars have Hillary and her SuperPAC spending 20 million dollars. Trump, his SuperPACs and the NRA are spending 12 million. Hillary has gone up in Arizona with a big buy and a small buy also in Missouri, Texas and Indiana. Trump meanwhile is doing what losing campaigns do, he took down his TV ads in Virginia and pulling resources out of that state being hopeless. Lets now look at the individual races in the four states that decide the race:

Florida - Hillary leads by 3.6% (last week Hillary led by 2.4%, 2.8%, previous weeks Trump led by 0.5%, 0.9%, 0.2%, earlier Hillary led by 3.6%)
North Carolina - Hillary leads by 2.7% (last week Hillary led by 2.6%, 1.8%, Trump by 1.4%, earlier weeks Hillary by 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.3%)
Ohio - Trump leads by 0.7 (last week Hillary led by 0.5%, Trump led by 3.8%, 2.0%, 2.0%, previously Hillary led by 1.8%, and 3.3%)
Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 6.8% (was 8.6%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 6.2%, 5.8% and 6.0%)

NOTE - Trump has to win these four states (or have some miracle SERIES of more than one other states to replace any of the above). He has never led in Pennsylvania since we started the count-down. You might make up a point or two, at most three points in three weeks. But there is no way Trump makes up for a 6.8% deficit in Pennsylvania in the remaining 3 weeks. Not enough time. And he doesn't even have the resources to seriously try. And winning PA would not be enough, he would also have to turn deficits in North Carolina and Florida into victories too. This race is over. In terms of sheer math coming up against reality, Pennsylvania broke Trump. He might have had a chance before the first debate, when PA was down to around two points. He can't do it now barring a miracle of another 'October Surprise' that would go against Hillary in a very big way.

If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here.

I just updated my forecast into the 'final' version, 3 weeks before election day. I now predict Hillary wins by 16%. Full forecast including analysis and reasoning is on the blog of course, and please remember, I called the 2008 election, the 2012 election as well as Trump's exact Primary victory correctly and all three of those within one state of how they finished. Take my forecast seriously, its likely to be very close. My forecast of why Hillary wins by 16% is here.

We have one more debate on Wednesday night. If you want to see what I wrote about the previous debate, I did my debate review of the Town Hall debate. Its here. 

To see the full race, my big all-numbers blog of the Election Scorecard of 3 October is here.  

Campaign Staff. We're starting to see campaign resources catalogues. Not yet a perfect picture but many of the critical states are being reported. In general terms Hillary has about three times the paid staff as the partnership of Trump and the Republican party. I've found 1,480 for Hillary in 7 states including Arizona and Georgia, and 480 corresponding Trump+GOP staff in five of the same states not any in AZ or GA. But I don't yet have the full picture. I'm working on it..

Of the Senate Race, RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) has slipped back to a 49/51 split where the Republicans hold a majority at the slimmest lead possible. But the trend is now towards Democrats (It was at 48/52, 50/50, 49/51, 49/51, 49/51, 50/50). The Republicans lost their only pick-up of Nevada. They currently show pick-ups for Democrats out of Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin for a net +3 (was +2, +4, +3, +3, +4) Senate Seats to Democrats. Those races are very close and a likely Democratic wave seems to be buildling, 

The House Map by RCP is also up now. Currently if the Democrats were to sweep all 15 of the 'toss up' seats for the House as well as of course winning all that RCP projects they are ahead - the Democrats would be 15 seats short of the majority in the House. If we assign the toss-ups exactly evenly, the House would remain in Republican hands by a 22 seat majority.

And finally a plug. I just released my joke book. 1001 jokes about Donald Trump. I call it TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve. It runs 253 pages, has actually 1,052 jokes about Trump and 1,454 jokes in total including other, non-Trump jokes like those of other Republicans. I will release one page out of the ebook every day until election day, to give out 10% of the ebook for free. So visit this page even if you just want to see 'the daily jokes' about Trump. If you want to buy the ebook, it only costs $4.99. And yes, here is the page for TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Next major scheduled event in race is the last debate on Wednesday ie tomorrow.

Comments

[paul]

MICHAEL MOORE IN TRUMPLAND

http://www.ifccenter.com/films/michael-moore-in-trumpland/

[grouch]

Miami Herald recommends Patrick Murphy for U.S. Senate

"This newspaper has a long history of supporting U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s electoral campaigns [...]"

"He has fought Obamacare at every step, even though it has brought immeasurable relief to millions who previously had no healthcare. He has joined the Senate majority in the scandalous move to block any consideration of the president’s nominee for a Supreme Court vacancy. He has unilaterally blocked other meritorious presidential nominations for purely political reasons, including confirmation of a judge he himself had once recommended."

[...]

"Mr. Trump’s candidacy is a test of character, and Sen. Rubio is failing that test."

[...]

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article109081832.html

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

And so the end is in sight. Now Priorities USA, Hillary's SuperPAC has made that truly unusual move, it has started to air TV ads that no longer help Hillary win, but rather, focus on helping Democratic Senators to win. This is as of now in two states that are totally safe for Hillary but are battleground states and no doubt Priorities USA had pre-booked TV ad time at lower rates far in advance, expecting to need to spend in these two states. Its Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. They're going after Republican incumbent Senators Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte. This signals several things.

First off, it means, duh, that PA and NH are gone. They are done. Hillary has won the two battleground states that Trump is still fighting for. If Trump were to quit PA, he'd admit defeat in the election but I would guess he is truly minimizing any lingering efforts in New Hampshire at this point to try to concentrate his remaining resources.

Secondly, it means the race is tilting in the Hillary campaign from winning the White House to the down-ticket races. Three WEEKS before election day! Robbie Mook did say about ten days ago, that they can see from their data, that they're winning Florida, North Carolina and Colorado, meaning they've already won the election. Kind of an arrogant thing to say, but they WOULD know this, and barring again, an act of God like a heart attack or terrorist attack, this election is over. And Hillary has won Colorado (and Virginia) and PA and NH, that is obvious. And if Mook says in public that they have won Florida and North Carolina... they may not actually be 'certain' in those states yet, those races will be close, but they must be WELL ahead, and will win them. Not by a point or two either, it will be at least by 3 points. Ie 'outside the margin of error' of most polling.

Next up? Politico says Priorities USA is considering their TV ad strategy for two more states, Nevada and North Carolina - that also have tight races for Senator (not all Senators are up, as their term is 6 years, so every 2 years, one third of Senators have an election). This is one of the wealthiest advertisers in the history of politics - I mean just the SuperPAC alone (which is legally not allowed to coordinate with Hillary's campaign). If they go in with a serious effort - they WILL impact any race. Thats before we consider how powerful their message is, now when tying toxic Trump to any Republicans.

And then consider what we just learned from the Hillary campaign, that they are expanding the map into Missouri, Texas and Indiana. MO and IN have tight Senate races too. So when Hillary sends surrogates, they help energize the local support to that Senator as well. And gosh, if you send Michelle Obama to one of those states, which Democrat politician would NOT want to be seen with the most popular politician alive? Haha. Imagine the power of this game in the last weeks. I do expect that RCP Senate map to get back to 50/50 and then inch towards 52/48 by the last week of polling. How many Senate seats above 52 can the Democrats grab, that is the question.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

On the last debate. Trump is being coached by Chris Christie (or had been, Christie also seems to be distancing himself from this sinking ship, its possible Christie & Trump had a falling out and was tossed out). Lets assume Trump has really worked at it, and builds on the modest level of discipline he had in the second debate.

Hillary wants to work on her positives. Trump will again throw everything he has, from Republican right-wing talking points at Hillary. It will not win voters in the middle, and while it should help energize his base, the big news, including Fox now, saying on many fronts, that this election is a huge loss for Trump - that will start to sink in. The power of Trump to energize his base is now severely diminished and various Republican female, even Evangelical female voters is taking its toll. People have been taking down Trump lawn signs out of disgust with his campaign. Its a clearly sinking ship.

Trump brings in President Obama's half-brother from Kenya as a guest to the debate. And he brings in the mother who spoke at his Convention about whoever it was who died in Benghazi. Benghazi makes sense in some level but that ship had sailed so many moons ago and will not help Trump win anymore. President Obama's half-brother? Its not even like Bill Clinton who at least is Hillary's spouce, but come on Obama's half brother? Trump is so desperately grasping at anything. He is not losing to OBAMA. He is losing to a GIRL. He should be laser-focused on Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. And that move by Obama to call Trump for whining haha, that was a Jedi move. Got very seriously under Trump's skin.

Obama is the second most popular politician in the USA now, behind only Michelle and even ahead of Bill Clinton, far ahead of other past Presidents or other current or past politicians. For Trump to shift any focus from attacking Hillary - an unpopular rival - to Obama, a highly popular sitting President - is just stupid Campaigning (what else is new).

Will these rattle Hillary? Not in the least. But what will SHE do? Her campaign has run oppo research on Trump for at least 14 months when Trump had climbed to the top of the polls in the primary race. She has TONS of money to throw at it, far more than any investigative journalist at any newspaper, and TONS of TIME to do it properly, far more than any TV network could afford. She HAS to have dirt, really nasty powerful sticky dirt on Trump, that is her 'ace in the hole'. When do you want to launch that bomb or bombs? In the LAST DEBATE because you get the biggest audience, because the other side won't get a chance anymore to respond in a further debate and there is so little time left for the other side to try to limit the damage.

Now. Obviously we have the Bossie card, on the Trump side. He could have manufactured some 'revellation' or there COULD be some serious scandal too, that could be a valid attack on Hillary. Its EXTREMELY unlikely that Trump has something that has not come out, that could get Hillary off her game. Its MORE likely that they have just created pure lies and fiction like Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry in 2004. But that type of attack would be difficult to deploy in a debate, if its not based on actual facts and existing videotape etc. So yes, this type of strategy would be available for both sides, but it is far more potent for Hillary.

And on PREP. Hillary will have had her side drill her mercilessly on every vicious attack on every nasty scandal of the past of Clintons, in her debate prep. She's just built that armor to her face, to be able to withstand the forced smile through it all.

But Trump? Do you think he'd ever admit to ANY of his SECRET faults, that are not now in the public domain? And then to PRACTICE those attacks? No way! He would not go through that humiliation, plus fear of giving all that ammunition to his potential adversaries in future disputes when the fired Campaign staffers are not being paid etc...

There should be something juicy, something stronger than the Miss Universe attack she hit Trump with at the end of the first debate. Its likely she had originally wanted something for the second debate but the P*ssygate tape was so damaging to Trump, it didn't make sense to substitute that story with anything else at that time. She must have something that is at least as damaging or more damaging than Miss Universe, and it may even be as damaging as P*ssygate. And she may have more than one of these waiting to be used. And this is the best stage to do it.

Then you have the debate STRATEGY. HOW will she play it? Will she bait and anger Trump all through the 90 minutes to get him off his game and then drop bombs on him? Or will she play nice to the audience at home, and not try to antagonize Trump, and have the bombs prepped just to work even if Trump has been seeming reasonably calm and reasonably collected? If she wanted, she clearly could just burn Trump in this last debate and get him sizzling mad, but that would also come across as Hillary being mean. It will be an interesting thing to watch. I am guessing she and her Campaign and debate prep, have decided to play this again as the only adult in the room, let the little boy rant, deal with it maturely, but not go into the pestering mode. However, I really do expect at least one, very likely two MAJOR bombs out of the debate. So damaging, in normal times they would end a rival's career. This/these are likely THE worst items about Trump that exist, with some evidence already out in the public domain, but conveniently ignored by anyone because there is just so much of it, and nobody made that given connection.

So imagine, a tape where Trump talks about his loan he just got from Putin. And say its done by a foreign newsmedia, many years ago, relating to some real estate deal, and only given in the interview in another country. Now if this tape existed and in that case, you know Hillary's team has it, then set Trump up about his links to Putin. And accuse Trump of all the bizarre love he has of Putin, and how much he takes pro-Russia positions that go against long-standing USA and long-standing Republican party positions - and then push Trump on a point like 'and you borrowed 120 million dollars from Putin'. To which Trump would probably interrupt and say 'WRONG'. Because Hillary knows the tape exists, what she would want out of the debate, is Trump making this type of claim. Then for the debate aftermath to be that clip running against the video their campaign will release, where Trump proudly admits in a TV interview to say Sky News in Britain, about his new loan of 120 million dollars from Putin....

We've been hearing more of the Howard Stern interviews. There are hours and hours of radio interviews of those, mostly obviously about sex, but remember it was on Howard's show that Trump first admitted he was for the Iraq War. So who knows what other bombshells sit in those vaults. It would not be beyond Howard to have given his fave bit to Hillary, and for them to coordinate its release, to now help propel Howard's visibility in the coming days about whatever that scandal was that he happened to have Trump caught on tape. It would not be about grabbing more p*ssy. That issue has now been dealt with. It would need to be something totally different than another sex scandal.

In the big picture, this last debate will not change the race much. It may help boost another point for Hillary at most, even with a big bombshell but it can provide very widely reported news coverage and could invoke an epic emotional reaction from Trump. He knows he is losing this race now, and it is only getting worse. His natural instinct is to deny and blame anyone else. If he can't blame Hillary or stop her from winning, Trump needs other scapegoats, like Bill Clinton, President Obama and of course all his Republican colleagues.

Now a Jedi move for Hillary, is if she could get Trump to turn on Republicans and blast them on TV and refocus Trump's attacks from Hillary to the GOP instead. That would help greatly in the race for Senate and House seats. I would not be surprised if this is in the game plan, but also, as in any debate, the topic, the sequence of answering, and the emotional moment of the debate needs to be right, for something that elaborate and devious. But look for it, if Hillary prods Trump into that kind of direction, and if Trump suddenly takes that bait - it very likely was planned and then Hillary did decide to deploy this method. It will be interesting to watch if she tries this and if it succeeds. But if you remember the first debate, Trump spent 12 self-destructive minutes in the middle of the debate destroying himself with almost any black voters, because he went into that 'stop-and-frisk' trap that Hillary laid. Trump didn't need to go there, and he fell into the trap only towards the end of a question about racism.

Lastly, I think Hillary had a clear plan in the first debate to appeal to two demographic groups, blacks and women. In the second debate she had no focused agenda. I think there are two obvious demographic groups left, out of her constituency that would seem to need their own 'love' out of Hillary at this stage, to show she's on their sides too. Its Hispanics and Youth voters. I would expect Hillary to have now a plan to appeal to those two groups in this last debate to boost their voter turnout as well. Lets see if that happens.

Do I expect an epic melt-down by Trump? No. I think he'll have the discipline to last 90 minutes and Hillary will not make it her mission to get him off-kilter. Is it possible that Trump has a melt-down anyway? Gosh yes. Especially if Hillary launches those planned bombs, then Trump could get into an epic Call Sean Hannity, Call Sean Hannity, Why isn't anybody calling Sean Hannity type of tantrum haha...

Enjoy this debate. Its the last we ever see of Trump in a televised debate and when he is seen again after November 9 in anything on TV, he will be a bitter broken man. This Trump we have laughed at, will not last past November 8.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
"And say its done by a foreign newsmedia, many years ago, relating to some real estate deal, and only given in the interview in another country."

Something like this:

I cannot even get this comment posted. Search Google for:

Donald Trump's Human Trafficking Scandal

[Winter]

thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/05/26/inside-donald-trumps-empire-why-he-wont-run-for-president.html

[Winter]

And especially this one (think of the awkward kissing scene with the little girl in pink):
(search for)
Sex, Human Trafficking, Underage Girls, Donald Trump's Partner, And A Jewish Billionaire

[Winter]

Just looking into this matter gave me a different view on the Republican party and its supporters. Every public figure that endorsed Trump should be permanently removed from the public stage.

Recent furor about Trump&Trafficking:

http://usuncut.news/2016/10/07/trumps-history-of-trafficking-young-girls-may-be-what-ends-his-chance-at-the-white-house/

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/6/1578544/-The-Untold-Story-of-Trump-Model-Management-A-Daily-Kos-Exclusive-Part-1

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/30/the-billionaire-pedophile-who-could-bring-down-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton.html

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Winter

Yes a disgusting story, likely bunch of crimes involved and most definitely nasty, sleazy and abusive. So for those who don't know the story, Trump has a modeling agency (duh, of course he does) that hires 'fashion' models.. from where? He imports them from abroad of course. Lots of potential immigration issues right off the bat. Then he houses them in slumlord conditions of shared apartments for which the agency charges onorous rents, far above going rate. The girls are essentially slaves, they are not allowed to work for anyone else, their pay is deducted for all the various 'services' they get provided including the rent and various model agency fees. And there is gossip its not properly run by agency rules and then yes, underaged girls and yes, then possibly sex trafficking, at the least nude modeling and possibly escort business ie prostitution.

Then, we factor in Trump and his behavior, how he seems to think he has the right because he is rich & powerful to grope and abuse women. Then the 13 year old girl's rape charges now in court. This all stinks to high heaven and its been remarkably NOT discussed apart from very few articles like Winter here links to.

Worst of all for 'truth' and 'openness' is that these girls were imported from abroad, served in near-slavery conditions for a while, and if they didn't 'make it' as models, they were shipped back to their home countries - often OWING money to Trump. They are thus also silenced, shamed, and likely under ridiculous levels of contracts forbidding them of talking to anyone - and quite possibly having the LOCAL Mafia in their home country chasing them for Trump's owed moneys, and turning their lives into living hell..

Its not like this is the first case of model careers used to dupe young pretty girls but it certainly is super-sleazy and very VERY likely with Trump involved, has a bunch of laws being broken and women abused (girls, teenagers, often age 15 or younger)

I'm sure there IS a bombshell story or two in that pile of dirt. Would this be what Hillary runs, am not sure. If I was her campaign, and had a series of ways to attack Trump, I would not make them all about 'women' haha. It was Miss Universe, then last week not because of Hillary but because of the sex tape, it was about sexual abuse. It would seem to me simply thinking 'strategically' on issues and voters that there is enough damage on women, Hillary's campaign could look into other areas like Trump University or his imported labor working in his hotels, or the loans to international banks or his tax returns or whatever, something other than 'again women'. I think Hillary has the women's vote argument so utterly signed-sealed-and-delivered that it wouldn't really be worth kicking that dead horse again haha...

BUT as a STORY, I do hope this abused international girls sex-trafficking story DOES get BIG coverage before election day, that hopefully someone like a NY Times or Washington Post or Newsweek or 60 Minutes has the story being developed and ready to run in the last weeks now.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
Then there still is this "old" story:

Report: Trump Actively Sought Out Illegal Immigrants to Work on Trump Tower
http://www.mediaite.com/print/report-trump-actively-sought-out-illegal-immigrants-to-work-on-trump-tower/

Donald Trump Hotel Accused of Using Illegal Hispanic Construction Workers
“The majority of us are Hispanics, many who came illegally,” one of the workers at the Washington, D.C., Trump International Hotel tells The Washington Post
http://www.thewrap.com/donald-trump-hotel-accused-of-using-illegal-hispanic-construction-workers/

But I am pretty sure Hillary has something ironclad ready that will surprise us all.

[grouch]

Trump likely borrowed his modelling agency business model from Kentucky coal mine operators.

See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixteen_Tons

"I can't afford to die. I owe my soul to the company store."

[Scroll down that article to "Cover Versions". People are always interested in this kind of sordid indentured servitude.]

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Meanwhile on the polling front. The in-State polls have two biggies. Arizona has 4% lead for Hillary. I thought it would be 1% or 2%. Thats pretty monster-sized already. Although may be outlier, lets see if more coming.

Then Utah. Now first poll shows McMullin ahead of both Trump and Hillary. Yeah. If he's up already now in his home state that obviously neither Trump nor Hillary will try too hard to fight for, McMullin will take Utah. Thats even more out from Trump. He's now far past dead. With Utah out, even if Trump flipped Arizona back, held his thin lead in Ohio, flipped Florida and North Carolina, heavy lifts; and somehow by magical voting, achieved the miracle of Pennsylvania.. he'd STILL LOSE...

Yeah. This doesn't need to 'stick a fork in it'. This is so done, you can peel the meat off this carcass with your fingers.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Millard Filmore]

Watching the debate now. Low energy Trump is leaning against his podium. Hillary is standing straight up.

[Millard Filmore]

Debate is done.

- 1) Did Trump really say the Clinton Foundation is a criminal enterprise?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-foundation-criminal-enterprise-debate-230035

- 2) and again with the idiotic sneak attack to retake Mosul.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/788928817033129984

Sure, if you assume:
- there are no spies
- there are no deserters
- the fighters defending Mosul will ignore the tens of thousand army troops deploying around the city ... how many days will that take? and do it in secret?
- the fighters defending Mosul will ignore the dust clouds stirred up by the logistics tail needed to feed, arm, supply, and take care of all those soldiers.

Sure. A surprise attack. What a putz.

[Winter]

First try-out of Trump TV, digital (for now?):

Trump camp holds alternative to 'mainstream media' on Facebook
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/19/trump-camp-holds-alternative-to-mainstream-media-on-facebook.html

[Eduardo M]

@Millard Filmore

Yeah, the idea that there could be a surprise attack on Mosul is completely idiotic. In fact, it took several months of taking surrounding territory back from Isis before Mosul itself could be attacked.

In addition, it wasn't even the US's decision to try to keep it secret, since it is the Iraqi's who attacking. I wish Hillary had explained all this and used it as an example of how ignorant and dangerous Trump is on foreign affairs.

[Pauledward79]

And the crumbling of trump campaign continues and I couldn't be more happier.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13340828/hillary-clinton-debate-trump-won

[Wayne Borean]

I think this is the link someone above was talking about, which mentions the partiers on the Savarona yacht. Friend of mine is a Turk, I showed the stories to her just after the debate ended, and she was aghast.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4048812,00.html