Countdown to the End of Trump: 2 Weeks (actually less) to go - just doing the math now...

Sorry about the delay, but this election is done. Still, as of Tuesday it was 2 weeks to the end of Trump. Lets do a quick summary, for the record, of where the race stood on Tuesday. As Trump did not get a knock-out punch in the final debate (actually lost that one too, so he went 0 for 3 in his debates against Hillary) this election is effectively over. Hillary Clinton leads the average of polling by a significant amount, far too much to make up in two weeks left, and she also lead the Electoral College map, in far too many states to flip in the last remaining days. But yeah, lets do the numbers, for the record.

Hillary was up in the RCP average by 5.5%. (That was 7.1% last week, before that 4.8%, 3.7%, 1.6%, 1.1%, 2.2%, 3.4%in RCP average by the 4-way polls of previous weeks). This race currently is about on pace for Obama vs McCain of 2008 type of result.  

The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 333 EV vote (was 322, 340, 322, 292, 294, 311, 340) EV votes for Hillary, 205 (216, 198, 216, 246, 244, 227 and 198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. Since last week Arizona is back to Hillary again. So now compared against the last election (Obama-Romney 2012) Trump is up in 2 states (Iowa, Ohio) while Hillary is up in 2 states (North Carolina, Arizona).

The TV ad wars have Trump trying several hail-Mary gambits of utterly silly spending this late, in states that were never competitive to begin with, and would have needed serious effort for months. He's now up in Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia, all states that are far too far gone to flip at this stage. The top 4 states are in exactly the same sequence by both sides, they agree by TV ad spending that Florida is biggest, then Ohio, then Pennsylvania and then North Carolina. And Hillary is up in 3 of the four by in-state polling averages, and Trump would need to sweep all four to become President. So the latest polling in the four states that decide the race:

Florida - Hillary leads by 0.4% (last week Hillary led by 3.6%, 2.4%, 2.8%, previous weeks Trump led by 0.5%, 0.9%, 0.2%, earlier Hillary led by 3.6%)
North Carolina - Hillary leads by 2.0% (last week Hillary led by 2.7%, 2.6%, 1.8%, Trump by 1.4%, earlier weeks Hillary by 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.3%)
Ohio - Trump leads by 1.0% (last week was 0.7%, then Hillary led by 0.5%, Trump led by 3.8%, 2.0%, 2.0%, previously Hillary led by 1.8%, and 3.3%)
Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 4.8, (was 6.8%, 8.6%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 6.2%, 5.8% and 6.0%)

NOTE - Trump has to win these four states (or have some miracle SERIES of more than one other states to replace any of the above). He has never led in Pennsylvania since we started the count-down. You might make up a point or two, at most three points in three weeks. But there is no way Trump makes up for a 4.8% deficit in Pennsylvania in the remaining 2 weeks. Not enough time. And he doesn't even have the resources to seriously try. And winning PA would not be enough, he would also have to turn deficits in North Carolina and Florida into victories too. This race is over. What makes the math even worse, is that Hillary is now ahead in Arizona by 1.3% which means, even if Trump won ALL FOUR of those states, but Hillary wins AZ, the race is over and Hillary is the new President. 

If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here.

I have published my 'final final' forecast exactly 3 weeks before election day. I predicted Hillary wins by 16%. Full forecast including analysis and reasoning is on the blog of course, and please remember, I called the 2008 election, the 2012 election as well as Trump's exact Primary victory correctly and all three of those within one state of how they finished. Take my forecast seriously, its likely to be very close. My forecast of why Hillary wins by 16% is here.

To see the full race, my big all-numbers blog of the Election Scorecard of 3 October is here.  

Of the Senate Race, RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) has the race again at a 50/50 split (which means Democrats take control as the VP breaks the ties) (It was at 49/51, 48/52, 50/50, 49/51, 49/51, 49/51, 50/50). 

The House Map by RCP is also up now. Currently if the Democrats were to sweep all 15 of the 'toss up' seats for the House as well as of course winning all that RCP projects they are ahead - the Democrats would be 15 seats short of the majority in the House. If we assign the toss-ups exactly evenly, the House would remain in Republican hands by a 22 seat majority.

I will be putting up a 'TV Guide' to election night (the election is on November 8, Tuesday) and that will help you watch the election night coverage to see who is outperforming and underperforming in what states, to see is it going to be a big night for one or the other, or possibly a nail-biter. I am putting finishing touches to that blog now. I hope to have it up on Sunday.

And finally a plug. I just released my joke book. 1001 jokes about Donald Trump. I call it TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve. It runs 253 pages, has actually 1,052 jokes about Trump and 1,434 jokes in total including other, non-Trump jokes like those of other Republicans. I will release one page out of the ebook every day until election day, to give out 10% of the ebook for free. So visit this page even if you just want to see 'the daily jokes' about Trump. If you want to buy the ebook, it only costs $4.99. And yes, here is the page for TRUMP vs The Seventh Steve.

Comments

[Earendil Star]

It will be a memorable night for sure. Tomi, any comments on the potential influence of this new resurfacing of the email server issue by the FBI? Thanks for your insight, as usual.

[Winter]

Not really a surprise:

Comey Letter Backfires As Email Scandal Revival Energizes Hillary Clinton Supporters
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/29/comey-letter-backfires-email-scandal-revival-energizes-hillary-clinton-supporters.html

"Later Mook suggested that the Comey letter is helping the Clinton campaign by adding fuel to their early voting fire. It is likely that the Comey letter will backfire on Republicans and motivate Democrats to get out and support their nominee."

"Hillary Clinton may end up benefiting from Comey’s actions because the FBI Director might have gotten rid of the one thing that could have beaten her.

With one written paragraph, James Comey may have destroyed Democratic complacency."

[Millard Filmore]

Some new information has come to light about Trump's charitable giving.

"If this guy’s pretending to be a billionaire wasn’t such a profitable grift, his adult children would have him under supervised guardianship, because some of these stunts seem distinctly pathological. Kudos to the Washington Post‘s David Fahrenthold for staying focused"

As an example:
"Trump crashed a charity event [uninvited, and bumped a real charity doner] for kids with AIDS, sat on stage, danced the Macarena, left without giving a dime. https://t.co/VsFXTokjdR

— Steven Ginsberg (@stevenjay) October 29, 2016"

https://www.balloon-juice.com/2016/10/29/open-thread-more-of-the-philanthropic-stylings-of-the-gops-presidential-nominee/

[Millard Filmore]

@stuck: who needs laws or trials? that's just the typical government inefficiency. Trump says she is guilty and that's all anyone really needs. So get out there and vote the Trump - Putin ticket!

@Tomi: You are 73 years old? Wow! You are very well preserved. I am envious.

[Millard Filmore]

Gosh! Isn't this special. The FBI does not know what is in the new emails because they do not yet have a warrant that will let them look and see.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141610782

[Winter]

The Trump vs. McMullin battle for Utah spills into the open

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-the-trump-vs-mcmullin-battle-for-utah-1477800901-htmlstory.html

[Winter]

So father, so son&daughter:

Even Trump’s Kids Haven’t Donated to His Campaign
No Ivanka. No Donald Jr. No Rudy, Newt, or Chris Christie. None of Trump’s inner circle invested in his campaign—even as he asked working people for a few bucks.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/27/even-trump-s-kids-haven-t-donated-to-his-campaign.html

"only one of Trump’s children showed up on a list of itemized receipts for the campaign: Eric. On Sept. 7, 2016, Eric Trump appears to have contributed $376.20 listed only as “meeting expense: meals.” It appears that money was later refunded."

[Paul]

You can still play Hillary to win at odds 1.32 at Betfair and at 1.3 on most other betting sites!

Tommy, are these odds the best odds you have seen in your life-time?

[grouch]

[Winter posted a link to this story in another publication earlier]

Iowa Woman Arrested After Voting for Trump Twice Because ‘the Polls Are Rigged’

A Des Moines woman has been arrested and charged with voter fraud after she allegedly voted for Donald Trump a second time out of concern that her first vote for Trump would be counted for Hillary Clinton instead.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/iowa-woman-arrested-after-voting-for-trump-twice.html

[grouch]

Trump booted a black man from his rally and called him a ‘thug.’ Turns out he is a supporter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/trump-booted-a-black-man-from-his-rally-and-called-him-a-thug-turns-out-he-is-a-supporter/

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Well.. Mr Numbers has been at it again.. Please make me stop...

I wrote my Election Night TV Guide blog for you. Now you will know at 7PM already, is it a blowout election for Hillary, or is it a nailbiter that Trump could even win. I map out all the options on how to know well by 7PM and know for sure at 8PM. Yes we will now 8PM which election result is coming

Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Millard

Yeah, I'm pretty proud of that too. Never thought I looked 73 when I looked into the mirror. Also my parents may have been a bit surprised at the hospital in 1960 to find a 17-year-old baby when I was born, but hey, we are young at heart haha.

Or else, I might only be 56yo and still a young whippersnapper

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Oystein]

I think its sisu :)