Countdown to No More Trump: 8 Weeks to Go. Hillary up by 2.5%, Leads in 3 of 4 states that Trump has to capture

So its now 8 weeks left, exactly. Tuesday. To election day. And less than two months left of the Punk Rock star who fronted Donald Trump and the Deplorables in the 1970s (no he didn't, thats a joke blog). 

Polling average: Hillary ahead by 2.2% (was 3.4% last week) in RCP average (4-way polls). It has 6.6% (9.3%) undecided. When those undecided are allocated proportionately, the national race is at 2.5% (3.7%). This is a half-way below where Obama ended in 2012 against Romney and down more than a point from a week ago. If Trump does continue to catch up to Hillary the race could be tied in another 2-3 weeks. That does not seem to me to be likely, as only one poll in 45 has shown Trump ahead, an outlier CNN poll which now is weighing that average towards Trump but many polls recently reported a 2% race.

The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 311 (340) EV votes for Hillary, 227 (198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. The map has just seen a shift of in-state polling for one state, Florida going from Hillary to Trump. The current map is still a clear victory for Hillary and only slightly worse than what Obama won against vs Romney where Hillary picks up North Carolina over what Obama got, but loses both Iowa and Florida in return. Trump is back to over 200 EV votes for the first time in more than two months but Hillary has been at over 300 EV votes for the three full months that RCP has produced its map. 

The TV ad wars have Hillary and her SuperPAC up with TV ads in Arizona, Colorado Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This includes a return by the SuperPAC to Colorado, and an expansion by Hillary to Georgia. Trump has taken down all ads other than four states, the real battleground of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. So the very expensive waste of TV ads in Michigan and Virginia has now ended. He is up with a two million dollar ad buy in those four states. Hillary has 16 million dollars across the 10 states but she has far larger expenditures in the same four battlegrounds. The only four states that both sides 'agree' are the true battleground - ie both sides are willing to spend money to fight for are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the truest sense, those four states will decide the 2016 election (by current count, this situation may change). The only polls that matter now, are those for Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. For President that is. Everything else is either noise or bonus. Including the national polls from now till the end. These four states will decide it.

If Trump wins all four (and doesn't lose any states that Romney won) he wins the race. But Trump has to win all 4. If he loses even one then Hillary becomes President (assuming Hillary can't steal any other states that Romney won, like say Arizona or Georgia). So lets look at the RCP polling in those four states. This is what decides the race:

Florida - Trump leads by 0.2% (last week Hillary lead by 3.6%)

North Carolina - Hillary leads by 0.7% (was 0.3%)

Ohio - Hillary leads by 1.8 (was 3.3%)

Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 5.8% (was 6.0%)

Remember, Trump has to win all four of those states else he cannot become President. At the moment Hillary is ahead in three of them. NC has moved in her favor and isn't as tight as it was, but FL has now dropped (quite a lot) to go just barely into Trump's camp. Note that Florida is swinging, it has gone back and forth since the Conventions four times by RCP average. Its the only state of these four states that is 'swinging'. Ohio has gone in Trump's favor, Pennsylvania is stubbornly flat and beyond reach of Trump. As a reminder, Obama won all four of these states in 2008 and won 3 of the 4 (lost NC) in 2012. As of now, Hillary is relatively safely in the lead in the battlegrounds but she has no 'cushion' (yet) out of the other states she is contesting for, Arizona and Georgia. The play that Trump briefly tried for Michigan has now ended. We still have exactly 8 weeks to go. If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here. And my full Sept 1 Election Scorecard, it is here.

Campaign stops. Trump continues his unorthodox campaigning in many non-battleground states, this week a visit in Maryland and Texas. Hillary's campaign may take a pause on her schedule as she had a minor health incident in New York city and is diagnosed with pnemonia and is receiving medication for it. 

Basket of Deplorables. A possible campaign-altering matter arose at the end of the week with Hillary's use of 'basket of deplorables'. Both sides think this is a winner. Trump has cut its weekly national TV ad out of that theme (where it bizarrely has Hillary in audio calling Trump supporters racists, homophobes, islamaphobes, sexists etc - you'd think they don't want that repeated nationally). The Trump camp and many right wing pundits feel this is Hillary's '47% moment' like Romney who dsparaged much of the electorate. Many on the Democratic side (but not all) feel its a winner, it exposes half of Trump's loyal supporters as bigoted racists etc, and those won't vote for Hillary anyway. As 60% of the nation sees Trump as a racist, it could work in her favor specifically in the middle and with undecided voters. This could go either way. My gut says this will work out for Hillary but the right wing is putting on a full-court press that Hillary is disparaging 'normal' voters. (Note I wrote a joke about a punk rock band Donald Trump and the Deplorables)

Of the Senate Race, while we are here. RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) says 49/51 for Republicans barely holding the Senate. (It was 50/50 last week). They give pick-ups for Democrats out of Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a pick-up for Republicans out of Nevada, for a net +3 (was +4) Senate Seats to Democrats. The state of New Hampshire is the one that slipped back to remaining with the incumbent Republican by current polling. (the RCP House Map is not yet up)

And for the record. My latest forecast update (Sept 1) says Hillary will end up winning by 18%, get 448 EV votes to Trump's 90. Hillary to win 35 states and the District of Columbia; Trump to win 15 states. National vote distribution 53% Hillary, 35% Trump, 9% Johnson and 3% Stein and the rest. To see more of my current forecast, see the end of the Scorecard. 

For those interested in the details of the race, last week I did an aggregation of the two '50 state' polls with the RCP in-state polling for the same period to give the best statistical view to every state as of August, published anywhere in the open on the internet. (I hope to update that after the month of September is done)

Next major scheduled event in race is in two weeks, on Sept 26 when Trump and Hillary will have their first debate, at Hofstra University in New York State. It will be moderated by Lester Holt of NBC News. It will involve 6 topics that will be revealed one week prior to the debate. It starts at 21:00 (9pm) local time NY.

Comments

[grouch]

Polls show many — even most — Trump supporters really are deeply hostile to Muslims and nonwhites

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12882796/trump-supporters-racist-deplorables

"There is really no other way to say this: Polls suggests that, if anything, Clinton’s claim that “half” of Trump supporters are Islamophobic is an underestimate."

[...]

"This complicates Clinton’s claim that up to half of Trump supporters are “xenophobic.” They aren’t in the sense that they don’t seem to mind a French immigrant, even an undocumented one. But many are potentially xenophobic in the sense that they fear Mexican — and perhaps other Latino — immigrants, because of the cultural impact that may have on America."

[...]

"A poll from March and April by Reuters and Ipsos took a close look at this issue. It found that Trump supporters are more likely to say that, compared to white people, black people are viewed by Trump supporters as less intelligent, more lazy, more rude, more violent, and more criminal. About 40 to 50 percent of Trump supporters held at least one of these views, while fewer than 35 percent of Clinton supporters did."

[grouch]

Donnie baby is crying about moderators before the debate even begins:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-no-debate-moderator-228016

[grouch]

As 3,000 People Were Dying, Trump Bragged About How 9/11 Attacks Were Good For Him

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/11/15-years-ago-donald-trump-bragged-building-tallest.html

[grouch]

Another link that bears repeating:

The George W. Bush White House ‘Lost’ 22 Million Emails

http://www.newsweek.com/george-w-bush-white-house-lost-22-million-emails-497373

"For 18 months, Republican strategists, political pundits, reporters and Americans who follow them have been pursuing Hillary Clinton’s personal email habits, and no evidence of a crime has been found. But now they at least have the skills and interest to focus on a much larger and deeper email conspiracy, one involving war, lies, a private server run by the Republican Party and contempt of Congress citations—all of it still unsolved and unpunished.

Clinton’s email habits look positively transparent when compared with the subpoena-dodging, email-hiding, private-server-using George W. Bush administration."

[Winter]

It looks like elected Republicans are preparing their voters to eould have to get rid of democracy altogether if a majority of voters refuse to vote for Republican candidates:

Kentucky governor: Electing Hillary Clinton may eventually lead to violence
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/13/kentucky-governor-electing-hillary-clinton-may-eventually-lead-to-violence/

[grouch]

Winter:

I take no blame for that big-mouth, halfwit governor. My state seems determined to be the dumbest in the country. Educators here used to say, "At least we're not Mississippi." I haven't checked our national ranking for education in over a decade, so we may be 50th by now.

[grouch]

(Tv news this morning was all about Hillary's health. Nothing about Trump's crooked dealings coming to light. Nothing about the 'lost' emails of G.W.).

Linked from the same page Winter posted above:

Trump’s campaign says he’s given ‘tens of millions’ to charity, but offers no details and no proof

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/12/trumps-campaign-says-hes-given-tens-of-millions-to-charity-but-offers-no-details-and-no-proof/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

[grouch]

http://politicsthatwork.com/graphs/income-growth-parties-middle-class

"Each bar shows the average change in the incomes of the bottom 90% of U.S. families when each party has controlled the presidency, controlled both houses of the legislature and when control of the houses of the legislature have been split. The data looks at all years since 1930."

"When Democrats control both houses of the legislature and the presidency simultaneously, the incomes of the bottom 90% of Americans have grown 4.43% per year on average. When Republicans have been in the same situation, the incomes of the bottom 90% of Americans have, on average, fallen by 2.29% per year."

DAMN YOU librul FACTS!

[Millard Filmore]

About that basket of deplorables thing ...

"A friend who was outside the arena [Asheville, North Carolina] posted to Facebook:

The entire rally was a downright terrifying window into the vision of America Trump supporters have. Many responded "fuck yes" when asked "do you support racism", which really threw me off. It isn't just liberal media making it seem like these rallies are angry and hate fueled... It's true."

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/09/deplorables-unmasked-by-bloggersrus.html

[Winter]

"basket of deplorables"

Hillary is savagely criticized for speaking the truth.

[grouch]

Millard Filmore:

That article gives us a view of a kinder, gentler basket of deplorables.

"Outside (per Facebook comments and cell phone photos), a Trump supporter who looked to be in his seventies punched an old lady wearing an oxygen bottle, knocking her to the ground."

[grouch]

There were five phantom donations in the files of Donald Trump’s foundation. Here’s what we know.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/12/there-were-five-phantom-donations-in-the-files-of-donald-trumps-foundation-heres-what-we-know/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

"For another, the Trump Foundation seems to have repeatedly defied the Internal Revenue Service rules that govern nonprofits. It gave a prohibited political gift to help Florida Attorney General Pamela Bondi (R). It appears to have bought items for Trump — including a $12,000 football helmet and a $20,000 portrait of Trump — despite IRS rules against "self-dealing" by charity leaders.

And, in at least five cases, the Trump Foundation may have reported making a donation that didn't seem to exist."

[grouch]

In response to that Claremont Institute "Flight 93 Election" essay...

An Attack on Founding Principles at the Claremont Institute

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/an-attack-on-founding-principles-at-the-claremont-institute/499094/

"So it is worth dwelling on the fact that the metaphor is histrionic, false, and absurd. “We have reached a point where otherwise intelligent people are suggesting that if you don't vote for the narcissistic, power-mad, uncontrollable, spoiled, dangerous, non-conservative, blowhard liar, that democracy is dead,” Ben Howe observed at Red State. “We're being told that it's important to ignore your reservations, ignore your genuine concerns, shut up and vote for a guy you may legitimately be concerned isn't mentally stable or trustworthy with nuclear codes.”"

[Wayne Borean]

An article about Conservativism and the Republican Party.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/conservatives-lost-republican-party-yuval-levin-2016-214228

[Winter]

Statistics rule:

Hillary Clinton’s ‘Invisible Guiding Hand’
Meet the little-known statistician behind the Democratic nominee's most important strategic decisions.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-data-campaign-elan-kriegel-214215

[grouch]

Donald Trump’s surprisingly shady charitable foundation, explained

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12888492/trump-foundation

[Stephen Reed]

Tomi, I believe you understate what is going on with Hillary's health issue.

If I am right, you will be explaining very favorable polls for Trump between now and your next update.

[grouch]

Business as usual with the infotainment calling itself "news".

This Is What Trump Manages to Get Away With While Everyone Obsesses Over Clinton's Pneumonia

http://m.motherjones.com/media/2016/09/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-pneumonia-cnbc-interview

[grouch]

Just in case anybody not part of the Alternate Reality missed the bias...

In NYT's Hillary Clinton Coverage, An Obsession With 'Clouds' And 'Shadows'

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/new-york-times-cloud-shadow-clinton-coverage

"Things are dark and stormy in The New York Times coverage of Hillary Clinton – or maybe The Gray Lady has merely misplaced her thesaurus.

TPM Reader AR wrote in after he noticed that in recent months the go-to metaphors in the Times' Clinton campaign coverage were clouds and shadows."

[grouch]

Obama Critiques Media: Clinton And Trump Aren't Even Comparable

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/obama-clinton-trump-no-equivalence

"During a rally in Philadelphia for Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, President Obama said it's impossible to compare Clinton to Donald Trump in a speech that was critical of media coverage of the presidential election.

"I’m not running this time, but I sure do get frustrated with the way this campaign is covered," he said. "You don't grade the presidency on a curve. This is serious business."