Countdown to End of Trump: Six Weeks to go, situation on the day after first Debate

The first Debate was yesterday. Now we are at 42 days left to go. Six weeks to go to Election day. Polling average: Hillary ahead by 1.6% (was 1.1% last week, 2.2% two weeks and 3.4% three weeks ago) in RCP average (4-way polls). It does look like we just passed the bottom of Hillary's polling, especially as we anticipated a bounce from the debate. When those undecided are allocated proportionately, the national race is at 1.7% (1.1%, 2.5% and 3.7%). Thats a race now a bit better than W Bush vs Al Gore in 2000 (where Al Gore won more votes but W won the Electoral College and became President).

The actual race is for the Electoral College ie 'the map'. RCP Electoral College Map (no toss-ups) shows 292 (294, 311, 340) EV votes for Hillary, 246 (244, 227 and 198) EV votes for Trump. 270 is needed to win. Since last week Florida flipped back to Hillary but North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada are now for Trump. So now against the last election (Obama-Romney 2012) Trump is up in 5 states (Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa) while Hillary is not up in any.

The TV ad wars have Hillary and her SuperPAC up with TV ads in Arizona, Colorado Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania plus the one congressional district of Nebraska. Hillary's ad buy is about 8 million dollars in those states. Her SuperPAC runs about a little bit less in about the same states. Trump is up in a massive 13 state TV ad buy worth about 14 million dollars from Tuesday to Sunday, in 13 states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine's single district. His SuperPACs have small buys, and the NRA (National Rilfe Association) has 5 million dollars in ads, half of which went nationally and half into 5 states - Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania - battleground states - plus Nevada. A bunch of Trump's purchases are again nutty plays that he is likely to soon abandon. The race currently centers on eight states. They are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa. Everything else is either noise or bonus. So lets look at the RCP polling in those eight states. This is what decides the race:

Florida - Hillary leads by 0.5% (last week Trump led by 0.9%, 0.2%, previous week Hillary led by 3.6%)
North Carolina - Trump leads by 1.4% (last week Hillary led by 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.3%)
Ohio - Trump leads by 2.0 (last week Trump led by 2.0%, two weeks ago Hillary lead of 1.8% last week, and 3.3% week before)
Pennsylvania - Hillary leads by 1.8% (was6.2%, 5.8% and 6.0%)

For the alternate path, we have 4 more states:

Iowa - Trump leads by 5.0% (last week was Trump lead 4.3%) 
Nevada - Trump leads by 2.2% (was Hillary lead 0.2%) 
Colorado - Trump leads by 0.5% (was Hillary lead 3.0%) 
New Hampshire - Hillary leads by 5.4% (was Hillary lead 6.0%) 

So the alternate map for Trump is not looking any easier than winning Pennsylvania but he seems to be trying the Iowa-Nevada-New Hampshire (and Maine 1 district) route. And remember, Hillary is also making a serious play for Arizona and if Hillary can flip AZ, then the above math becomes meangless, even if Trump won Florida, Ohio, NC, Pennsylvania AND Iowa, if Hillary steals Arizona, she becomes President. As a reminder, Obama won all eight of those states in 2008 and won 7 of the 8 (lost NC) in 2012. As of now, Hillary is still with a modest lead in the battlegrounds but she has no 'cushion' (yet) out of the other states she is contesting for, Arizona and Georgia. We have exactly 6 weeks to go.

If you want to see last week's Countdown summary, its here.

My Debate Review is here.

And my full Sept 1 Election Scorecard, it is here.

Campaign Staff. We're starting to see campaign resources catalogues. Not yet a perfect picture but many of the critical states are being reported. In general terms Hillary has about three times the paid staff as the partnership of Trump and the Republican party. I've found 1,480 for Hillary in 7 states including Arizona and Georgia, and 480 corresponding Trump+GOP staff in five of the same states not any in AZ or GA. But I don't yet have the full picture. I'm working on it.. Of the

Senate Race, while we are here. RCP Senate Map (no toss-ups) says 49/51 for Republicans barely holding the Senate. (It was 49/51, 49/51, 50/50). They give pick-ups for Democrats out of Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a pick-up for Republicans out of Nevada, for a net +3 (was +4) Senate Seats to Democrats.

The House Map by RCP is also up now. Currently if the Democrats were to sweep all 15 of the 'toss up' seats for the House as well as of course winning all that RCP projects they are ahead - the Democrats would be 15 seats short of the majority in the House. If we assign the toss-ups exactly evenly, the House would remain in Republican hands by a 22 seat majority.

And for the record. My latest forecast update (Sept 1) says Hillary will end up winning by 18%, get 448 EV votes to Trump's 90. Hillary to win 35 states and the District of Columbia; Trump to win 15 states. National vote distribution 53% Hillary, 35% Trump, 9% Johnson and 3% Stein and the rest. To see more of my current forecast, see the end of the Scorecard.

For those interested in the details of the race, two weeks ago I did an aggregation of the two '50 state' polls with the RCP in-state polling for the same period to give the best statistical view to every state as of August, published anywhere in the open on the internet. (I hope to update that after the month of September is done)

Next major scheduled event in race is the VP debate .

Comments

[cornelius]

Here is Trump's sniff movie. Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wd_ZITiiKs

[Tester]

The user comments for this video are the icing on the cake. Too bad that 'normal' people will never see this stuff... :(

[cornelius]

@Tester
Well, so far the video got almost 40,000 views. If we spread the word, then more people get to see it. Like for example twitter users that have a lot of followers. Do we have such people in the house?

[Paul]

It really looks like Trump has hard times to grasp what he did wrong in the debate, especially regarding minorities and women. He is a racist and he just does not know what minorities like to hear for example. Therefore I think that the next debates will be more or less like the first one, that is Trump trying very hard to look calm and presidential but still being a bully, racist, and tone deaf to minorities and women. This only in case that Trump will show up to the debates!

Anyway, reading the press it looks like the right wing press ranges from Trump loosing the debate and losing votes to having hard time explaining how this debate loss gains him more votes (excluding those articles which are based on those useless internet polls which attract 90% of Trump fans).

[grogxd]

I Muted Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton During the Debate. I Still Knew the Score.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/us/politics/trump-clinton-debate-body-language.html

[Winter]

@Paul
"... the right wing press ranges from Trump loosing the debate and losing votes to having hard time explaining how this debate loss gains him more votes"

Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning while the polls are saying otherwise? At the same time, the Hillary camp is mum about winning. If anything, the Hillary camp is saying they might lose.

This suggests that both camps are affraid their supporters might stay home. Which again would tell us that the Trump camp fears their voters won't show up vecause they do not believe they can win anymore, while the Hillary camp fears their voters do not believe they can lose anymore.

[Winter]

Trump's performance has brought out ALL of his mysogyni over times. And that will be spread out over the country:

Donald Trump's trouble with women -- an incomplete list
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/27/politics/donald-trump-women-problems/

[grouch]

Endorsement: Hillary Clinton is the only choice to move America ahead
Editorial board, The Republic

Since The Arizona Republic began publication in 1890, we have never endorsed a Democrat over a Republican for president. Never. This reflects a deep philosophical appreciation for conservative ideals and Republican principles.

This year is different.

The 2016 Republican candidate is not conservative and he is not qualified.

That’s why, for the first time in our history, The Arizona Republic will support a Democrat for president.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2016/09/27/hillary-clinton-endorsement/91198668/

[paul]

@Winter

> Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning
> while the polls are saying otherwise?

Because it is their job to do that. Also Trump press mostly screams that they are winning the elections but do NOT screams that Trump has won the debate. That is a slight difference.

It really looks like Trump does not even realize that he has a problem with women. That makes it really difficult for him to even start adjusting his position on women. This women problem of Trump and Clinton's strategy on playing women cards is invisible even to many of the political commentators because most of them are men. Even Tomi has almost partially missed it in the very very beginning (when he did the very first debate review). BUT the women were very very fast on detecting it. See, for example, Megyn Kelly who said immediately after the debate that Trump was "sliced and diced" by Hillary.

[Tester]

Reading such an article from a conservative newspaper really, really hurts. I wonder how such a thing my influence voters, especially because Arizona is such a critical state.

Oh, and in other news, we got another troll who just proves again the braindeadness of Trump supporters...

@Winter:

"Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning while the polls are saying otherwise? At the same time, the Hillary camp is mum about winning. If anything, the Hillary camp is saying they might lose."

There's nothing worse than gloating before the election, that has already cost may candidates a victory. The Clinton camp is wise to remain subdued and do business as usual. Let Trump act like the sore loser he is, right now it can only do some harm to him.

As for Trump, he just continues his strategy of being the loudest, most annoying candidate ever. The real question here is, how many of his potential supporters will get their senses together right before giving their vote, because they essentially know that he's nothing more than a pompous gasbag and wouldn't hand control over to him. I think that's the biggest wildcard in this election. Hillary, appearing sane and controlled certainly will have far less voters second-guessing their choice at the last second, for Trump I am not so sure. This may also skew the polls a bit but who knows by how much?

[Stephen Reed]

Tomi,

I expect that you have discarded your dream of a Hillary Clinton landslide that carries the US Senate and House.

I continue to believe that Trump will not only win the general election, but that his coattails will ensure Republican control of the US Senate and House.

Your debate analysis and its polling predictions are a falsifiable hypothesis. Should Trump obtain a sustained lead in the 4-way RCP presidential poll average, then your debate predictions would be obviated, and your analysis of the debate play-by-play would be then suspect.

One tiny bit of evidence in my favor is the USC/LAT Daybreak panel daily tracking poll, which at 3AM ET, September 28, showed a modest bump for Trump. As the reported figures are a 7 day moving average, should the spread continue to increase in favor of Trump, then one could reasonably conclude that the September 26 debate moved a pursuable portion of the panel towards Trump.

--------

I hope that sometime next year we can begin discussing what it would take to manufacture mobile devices and all their component parts here in the USA, when a possible President Trump puts his protectionist trade policies in effect. Would you have any idea how many Chinese workers are employed in the total supply chain for mobile devices exported to the USA?

[Winter]

@Stephen
"I hope that sometime next year we can begin discussing what it would take to manufacture mobile devices and all their component parts here in the USA, when a possible President Trump puts his protectionist trade policies in effect."

Uf Trump wins, I think most of us will have more pressing concerns than the mobile industry. Say, keeping alive?

[grouch]

The Arizona Republic doesn't go far enough. Today's "republicans" are not fiscally conservative and wouldn't recognize a principle if it bit them in the hind-parts. They are fiscally incompetent and irreponsible, wasting millions of taxpayer dollars on political witch-hunts, wasting millions by holding government hostage to score political points with fanatical religious extremists, and racking up record deficits and debts to benefit wealthy donors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Debt_1901-2010.png

http://www.theocracywatch.org/

http://crooksandliars.com/paul-rosenberg/both-sides-do-it-differently-scanda

http://politicsthatwork.com/graphs/income-growth-parties-middle-class

[Winter]

@grouch
"Today's "republicans" are not fiscally conservative and wouldn't recognize a principle if it bit them in the hind-parts."

[RANT]
I think you miss a fundamental point. I have found that the proverb: "People get the government they deserve" is very true. The reason Republican party and politicians are so corrupt is that their voters are that corrupt. They really WANT their representatives to bend and break the rules because they want their representatives to break the rules when it suits their own wishes. They do not care for any principle apart from their own private faith.

So they want the USA to leave NATO, default on debt, and plunge into a crisis because they really do not care what happens to their compatriots or the rest of the world. If you want to look into the mind of the Tea Party activists and fundagelicals, just look to Syria and Iraq. That is the kind of country they would build for themselves. And The Donald is just the candidate to build that country for them.
[/RANT]

[Tester]

@grouch:

That may be true and those people cannot be converted. But remember: Arizona is very tight at the moment so if this can turn even a tiny fraction of potential Trump voters in that state it may be enough.

[grouch]

Hillary Clinton laid a surprisingly intricate trap for Donald Trump, and he blundered into it
Updated by Matthew Yglesias

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/27/13079878/alicia-machado-trap

---

The author writes about the Miss Universe-turned-voter trap, similar to that part of Tomi's post-debate analysis regarding Hillary working to get Hispanic and undecided women voters stirred to action. It's a nicely detailed article about that trap.

Now consider (if you're brave enough to venture into a self-described "snark mob"):

Counterpoint: Trump Lost, But Only Because He Hung Himself From His Own Dick
By Alex Ruthrauff

http://wonkette.com/607005/counterpoint-trump-lost-but-only-because-he-hung-himself-from-his-own-dick

"But she won because Trump blew it so comprehensively that it would have been shocking if it hadn’t been Donald Trump doing the blowing.

"And let’s be honest. The first 20 minutes were not good for her. She sounded too scripted, which contrasted poorly with Trump’s more conversational style, and right out of the gate she took a hammering on trade."

---

Did I watch a different debate? Or have neither of the above authors ever been fishing with light tackle?

The entire debate looked to me like watching a very skilled angler hook, play and land a big 'hog' with tackle made for bluegill.

She baited and teased the Donald (see transcript portions posted in comments to Tomi's "Debate Review" article) to get him stirred up, threw out all that chum in her opening about infrastructure, manufacturing, small business, renewable energy, wealthy fair share, etc., etc. and he hit the lure. She tugged the line every time she spoke to keep him goaded into running and wearing himself out on her line, her bait. When he was ranting word salad and unforced lies, she let him run. When he seemed to calm down a bit, she'd tug a bit and spur him into jumping and running again. Then, right at the end, she dragged his carcase onto the bank, leaving him gaping and floundering and flopping around.

Try going through the transcript or video with that in your head. It'll become a different debate. :)

[grouch]

Winter:

Sadly true. "Behind every sleazy lawyer is a sleazy client." That scales up and down.

Tester:

I certainly hope Arizona flips. Tomi nailed so many things in the smartphone wars that it gives me hope for the predictions for this election. The world doesn't deserve the punishment of a dumpster presidency.

[Tester]

@grouch:

To be perfectly blunt, the USA fully deserve him. But it's the rest of the world that does not. Yet another megalomaniac gaining power could bring the world to the brink of destruction.

If he was just the lone looney in the Republican bin I also wouldn't worry, if both parties united he'd be gone in no time. But as things stand, Trump is just the result of 8 years of utterly irresponsible politics and by now the party is dominated by the same type of insaniacs.

Who knows what this nuthouse collection can do? It's a given that it'll be nothing good. And once the genuine conservatives, who want nothing of this insanity, will realize that their party had been subverted by hostile elements, it'd be too late and we have another Nazi Reich on our hands.

What's scary is that the entire press today is again only about Trump. He gets so much coverage that I fear that the debate's effects will be gone in a few days. It's as if the people only have that one choice and could decide between 'no' and 'yes'. And with such a selection of options 'yes' will always win.

[Winter]

@Tester
"He gets so much coverage that I fear that the debate's effects will be gone in a few days."

I suspect the Clinton campaign thinks they cannot change voters preferences. But they CAN change whether people will go out and vote.

The can make potential Trump voters feel ashamed and disgusted by his behavior and stay home and at the same time they can energize potential Hillary voters to register and go voting. That is how a landslide is made.

And the elaborate trap of the Miss Universe-turned-voter story is perfect for this aim. It also gives us a peek into this extremely sophisticated campaign organization. They predicted that Trump would bite, and bite hook line and sinker, and had all the stories and broadcasts ready. Maybe they had a few others waiting in line. And the Trumpists cannot even claim "a conspiracy". He admitted everything and doubled down on it. He did it all to himself.

But really, this is very sophisticated campaign strategy.

[paul]

New Debate Strategy for Donald Trump: Practice, Practice, Practice

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/donald-trump-debate.html

As expected, Donald's debate prep was a total mess.