199 Political Polls On The Wall, 199 Political Polls.. - In-State Polling covering Each of 50 States via Aggregating RCP and WaPo and Morning Consult

I have August In-State Polling for All 50 States. I've aggregated the two 50-state polls just out (Washington Post and Morning Consult) plus all concurrent Real Clear Politics listed in-state polls. And I've done the bias corrections and used some judgment (see below) to give the best '50 state' view, better than either WaPo or M.C, alone, or even if you average their result. In fact, my math here is better than even if you go adding those 2 national polls INTO the RCP averages, haha. I believe this is the best public domain aggregated 50 state view anywhere. I will explain why and how, and give you two handy tables that summarize the total race, each of the 50 states. And no, there is no mobile/tech in this blog, my regular mobile/tech readers can skip this. This blog is a math nerd ex market research pro now dealing with 199 individual polls in 50 states..

Some don't care for the long story. So Mr Math Genius and pretty-good-forecaster for the primary season and past 2 Presidential elections, tell us, what did you find. So very briefly. I took either the best numbers that exist for any poll in any state that has been conducted in August or first week of September. If we have better polls than the two fresh '50 state' polls, then I am using the better data, but if not, I use the 50-staters. I consider 'good enough' to be any state to have an average of at least 3 polls done in that state within the past 5 weeks, as reported by Real Clear Polling (RCP). If there are not at least 3 polls in any one state, then I did the best with the data we had. For 12 states we have 3 or more polls (Ohio has 40 polls in the past 5 weeks). For 16 states there is no in-state polling at all so I used the average of the two '50 state polls' that came out this week, Washington Post (WaPo) and Morning Consult (M.C.). For the remaining 22 states there is 1 or 2 in-state polls, in those cases I used an average with the two 50-state polls to create either 3 or 4 polls for that given state, and took that average. Also note DC has no in-state polls and WaPo didn't report it either, so DC is using just the M.C. number directly. I have indicated in the tables below in bolding, which are the 'reliable' numbers that had at least 3 in-state polls, and what states are the 'less reliable' that had this secondary method. I also did some bias corrections but that is discussed in the details below.

To understand what this table tells you. It does NOT tell you where the race is today, 9 September (got to RCP to see that). This is necessarily lagging. BUT this is a CONSISTENT finding of ALL 50 states, and the data here is better than either the WaPo or M.C. survey result alone. This table reports every state as what was the race 'during the month of August' not now - but you get that data for EVERY STATE. If you want to pin a date, its pretty well accurate as of the explicit date of 18 September, 2016, but in reality it covers each state as it stood when you cover the period from 1 August to 7 September. The race on 18 August according to RCP was a 5.8% race in favor of Hillary (its today at 2.4%). This table when calculated out by voter populations is consistent with a 5.2% election result. Thats pretty close to where RCP was. Now, lets go to the results. This is the table you probably want to see. Every state, all 50 states (plus DC), ranked in order of how much Hillary is ahead, down to how much Trump is ahead:


ALL 50 STATE POLLING IN AUGUST, SORTED BY BEST TO WORST STATES FOR CLINTON 
(199 in-state polls and/or 50-state in-state portion aggregated via RCP, WaPo and M.C.)
(States in bold are ones that have 3 or more real in-state polls, unbolded states include the extracted '50 state' poll data)

State . . . . . EV . . . Polls . . Clinton . Trump . Johnson . Stein . . Undec . . Plus/Minus

D.C. . . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0+1 . . . 33.2% . . . . 5.3% . . . 4.9% . . . 5.3% . . 51.3% . . +28.0%

Maryland  . . . 10 . . . 1+2 . . . 52.7% . . . 25.2% . . . 7.6% . . . 3.9% . . 10.6% . . +27.5%

Hawaii  . . . . . . 4 . . . 0+2 . . . 50.5% . . . 23.0% . . . 8.1% . . . 6.3% . . 12.2% . . +27.5%

California  . . . 55 . . . 0+2 . . . 50.2% . . . 26.0% . . . 9.3% . . . 6.0% . . . 8.6% . . +24.2%

Vermont . . . . . 3 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 25.1% . . 10.5% . . . 7.9% . . 10.2% . . +21.2%

Massach . . . . 11 . . . 1+2 . . . 48.3% . . . 29.1% . . . 9.9% . . . 4.0% . . . 8.7% . . +19.3%

New York  . . . 29 . . . 3+0 . . . 50.0% . . . 31.0% . . . 7.7% . . . 4.3% . . . 7.0% . . +19.0%

Illinois  . . . . . . 20 . . . 0+2 . . . 46.5% . . . 28.8% . . 10.3% . . . 4.4% . . 10.1% . . +17.8%

Connecticut . . . 7 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 31.8% . . 10.2% . . . 4.2% . . . 7.4% . . +14.6%

Washington . . 12 . . . 1+2 . . . 42.4% . . . 28.2% . . 10.5% . . . 5.2% . . 13.8% . . +14.3%

Oregon. . . . . . . 7 . . . 1+2 . . . 43.1% . . . 29.2% . . . 9.3% . . . 5.1% . . 13.4% . . +13.9%

Delaware . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 43.7% . . . 31.0% . . 10.2% . . . 4.1% . . 11.1% . . +12.8%

New Jersey  . . 14 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 35.4% . . . 7.3% . . . 2.9% . . . 8.0% . . +11.0%

Rhode Island . . 4 . . . 1+2 . . . 44.3% . . . 33.7% . . 10.1% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.0% . . +10.7%

Virginia  . . . . . 13 . . . 6+0 . . . 45.8% . . . 36.0% . . . 9.6% . . . 3.5% . . . 5.1% . . . +9.8%

Michigan . . . . 16 . . . 5+0 . . . 43.4% . . . 34.8% . . . 7.4% . . . 3.4% . . 11.0% . . . +8.6%

Colorado . . . . . 9 . . . 3+0 . . . 40.0% . . . 31.5% . . 14.3% . . . 5.5% . . . 8.7% . . . +8.5%

New Hamps  . . 4 . . . 3+0 . . . 43.3% . . . 35.0% . . 10.3% . . . 3.7% . . . 7.7% . . . +8.3%

New Mexico . . . 5 . . . 1+2 . . . 38.6% . . . 30.6% . . 18.2% . . . 4.0% . . . 8.6% . . . +8.0%

Pennsylvan . . 20 . . . 9+0 . . . 46.0% . . . 38.3% . . . 7.0% . . . 2.6% . . . 6.1% . . . +7.7%

Maine . . . . . . . . 4 . . . 2+2 . . . 41.2% . . . 33.6% . . 11.3% . . . 5.0% . . . 8.9% . . . +7.6%

Minnesota  . . . 10 . . . 0+2 . . . 40.1% . . . 32.8% . . 12.5% . . . 4.6% . . 10.1% . . . +7.4%

Wisconsin  . . . 10 . . . 2+2 . . . 40.9% . . . 36.2% . . . 9.9% . . . 3.8% . . . 9.3% . . . +4.7%

Ohio  . . . . . . . 18 . . 40+0 . . . 42.1% . . . 37.6% . . . 8.5% . . . 3.3% . . . 8.5% . . . +4.5%

Nevada  . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 41.4% . . . 37.3% . . . 8.0% . . . 4.2% . . . 9.1% . . . +4.1%

Florida  . . . . . 29 . . . 9+0 . . . 43.9% . . . 41.1% . . . 6.2% . . . 2.1% . . . 6.7% . . . +2.8%

North Carol . . 15 . . . 5+0 . . . 43.0% . . . 40.6% . . . 7.6% . . . 2.0% . . . 6.8% . . . +2.4%

Iowa  . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 5+0 . . . 39.0% . . . 38.2% . . . 9.0% . . . 3.0% . . 10.8% . . . +0.8%

Georgia . . . . . 16 . . . 4+0 . . . 40.7% . . . 41.2% . . . 7.8% . . . 1.5% . . . 8.8% . . . -0.5%

Arizona  . . . . . 11 . . . 5+0 . . . 38.3% . . . 40.5% . . . 8.5% . . . 2.0% . . 10.7% . . . -2.2%

Texas . . . . . . . 38 . . . 1+2 . . . 37.7% . . . 40.4% . . . 8.7% . . . 3.0% . . 10.2% . . . -2.6%

South Caro l . . . 9 . . . 2+2 . . . 37.5% . . . 41.6% . . . 7.5% . . . 2.9% . . 10.6% . . . -4.0%

Missouri . . . . . 10 . . . 1+2 . . . 35.9% . . . 42.0% . . 10.7% . . . 4.0% . . . 7.4% . . . -6.1%

Alaska . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 30.1% . . . 37.4% . . 18.3% . . . 4.6% . . . 9.6% . . . -7.3%

Mississippi  . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 38.9% . . . 46.5% . . . 5.0% . . . 1.6% . . . 8.1% . . . -7.6%

Nebraska  . . . . 5 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.0% . . . 40.0% . . 14.1% . . . 4.8% . . . 9.2% . . . -7.9%

Kansas . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 32.8% . . . 42.3% . . 13.1% . . . 3.0% . . . 8.8% . . . -9.5%

Montana . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.3% . . . 41.8% . . 11.8% . . . 4.7% . . . 9.4% . . . -9.5%

Arkansas  . . . . 6 . . . 0+2 . . . 34.2% . . . 44.0% . . 10.1% . . . 3.9% . . . 7.9% . . . -9.8%

Indiana . . . . . 11 . . . 1+2 . . . 33.3% . . . 43.9% . . 11.3% . . . 3.5% . . . 8.1% . . -10.6%

Louisiana . . . . 8 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.7% . . . 44.8% . . . 9.4% . . . 3.2% . . 10.0% . . -12.1%

Utah . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 25.1% . . . 37.4% . . 18.3% . . . 3.1% . . 16.1% . . -12.2%

South Dako  . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 29.2% . . . 41.5% . . 15.8% . . . 3.9% . . . 9.7% . . -12.4%

Kentucky  . . . . 8 . . . 1+2 . . . 33.0% . . . 46.9% . . . 6.8% . . . 3.6% . . . 9.7% . . -13.9%

Tennessee  . . 11 . . . 0+2 . . . 31.4% . . . 47.5% . . . 9.1% . . . 3.0% . . . 9.0% . . -16.1%

North Dako . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 28.4% . . . 45.1% . . 14.2% . . . 3.1% . . . 9.2% . . -16.7%

Idaho  . . . . . . . 4 . . . 1+2 . . . 25.7% . . . 44.0% . . 14.2% . . . 4.2% . . 12.0% . . -18.3%

Alabama . . . . . 9 . . . 0+2 . . . 30.9% . . . 49.8% . . . 7.9% . . . 2.4% . . . 9.0% . . -18.9%

West Virgi . . . . 5 . . . 1+2 . . . 29.0% . . . 48.5% . . 11.1% . . . 3.5% . . . 8.0% . . -19.5%

Oklahoma . . . . 7 . . . 0+2 . . . 26.7% . . . 47.3% . . 12.2% . . . 5.0% . . . 8.8% . . -20.6%

Wyoming  . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 21.5% . . . 51.2% . . 16.0% . . . 2.6% . . . 8.7% . . -29.7%

 

NATIONAL . . 538 . . 199 . . . 41.5% . . . 36.3% . . . 9.3% . . . 3.7% . . . 9.2% . . . +5.2%

Note: Polls colum has first number the actual in-state polls used, the second number is if in-state numbers from '50 state' polls were included
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis based on 122 in-state polls of 4-way race, reported at Real Clear Polling average, of polls covering August or first week of September; plus 77 in-state equivalent polls extracted from the two '50-state polls' by Washington Post/SurveyMonkey and Morning Consult, for a total of 199 in-state polls or equivalent poll extractions. In rough terms about 160,000 individual interviews were part of the the data generating the above table.
The above data may be freely shared


What do we learn? First, that the big stories out of the WaPo and M.C. '50 State' polls were likely somewhat hyping some measurement error in their methodologies. Yes, Texas is not far off, but its far more likely that Texas is still on Trump's side than that Hillary would be ahead of him, as the WaPo 50 state survey found. This methodology puts Texas at a -2.6% rating so nearly 3% for Trump. Thats still great news for Team Hillary but its 4 points off from what the big news story was a few days ago. The other data we have (one real poll and the M.C. rival 50-state poll, do not support the WaPo finding that Texas is now slightly for Hillary - at least not yet). Similarly the Morning Consult finding of North Carolina at 2.4% for Trump is not consistent with the other polls. North Carolina is (was mid August) rather 2.4% for Hillary. So most of those 'awesome' news items for either camp have been .. shot down. Sorry.

BUT this is the best 50 state polling we have anywhere. It corrects for some bias in the two 50-state methodologies (not all) and it uses either the RCP average in those 12 states where we have more data, or else a blend of RCP and the two 50-staters, where at least one in-state poll exists, and for the 16 states with no other polling, we still get an average of the two 50-state surveys, so in every way this is the best 'total picture'. And once again, the timing of this is 18 August, not now. I hope to do another such total survey if WaPo and M.C. do another set of these results at the start of October.

RELEVANCE FOR THE RACE

Mostly we knew this stuff. The 'Battleground' or 'Swing states' are well known. What we get from this, however, is a stark view to how daunting the task is for Trump. Hillary is ahead, everybody agrees with that. But look at Virginia. Trump is spending 2 million dollars of his 9 million TV ad budget this week, in Virginia. But look at VA. Trump is behind by 10 points when there were 3 months to go in the race. Nobody makes up 10 points in any race in 3 months unless the rival collapses somehow. You don't make up 10 points by campaigning and TV ads. And look further at Virginia - the UNDECIDED vote in Virginia is only 5%. They have long since decided. They like Hillary (and her VP pick, Tim Kaine popular ex-Governor and current sitting Senator from VA). Trump is an utter fool for wasting his campaign dollars and his time to try to win Virginia. Now what about Texas? It is not that Hillary is ahead, but that table tells us, that Texas is darned close, in less than 3 points. THAT you can do in 3 months. So the kind of insights we can have from the table are that kind of detail.

DETAIL ON MY FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

So for the nitty-gritty. First off, the two 50 state polls. They looked awesome, didn't they. WaPo with a massive 75,000 interview sample, with states from as low as 700 surveys to as many as 5,500 surveys. And beautiful results. Ok. Then suddenly we also had the Morning Consult rival 50 state survey. That of 18,000 interviews, also during the month of August. So how do they compare? Gosh do they argue with each other. In 24 states (48% of the time) the two found a result that was outside a reasonable margin of error ie more than 3% difference and get this, in 13 states (26% of the time) they are so far off, its more than 6% difference. In Kentucky the two polls were 13% apart! And its not like one prefers the Democrats and the other prefers the Republicans. Actually BOTH polls have a 'house bias' in favor of Trump. WaPo/SurveyMonkey has a 3.5% bias in favor of the Republican and Morning Consult as a 2.6% bias (when we assume that the 35 polls averaged from RCP at the same time are the real accurate measure for this time period).

So then I wanted to see how 'reliable' are they. Is one significantly reliable and the other totally off. So I took those 12 states that had 3 or more in-state polls in the same period, and compared the two 50-state polls to the average of all of the RCP polls for that state covering the same period (those who follow RCP polling, know that they take an average of RECENT polls, and I made sure we had ALL polls in the case of states that had many polls conducted during August). And both WaPo and M.C. had tons of errors. The worst case for WaPo was Colorado where it was off 8.5% from the RCP average of 3 in-state polls. The worst case for M.C. was New Hampshire where MC was off 7.5% against an average of 4 in-state polls. So we know neither of these two was a kind of 'perfect' tool and the other a failing pretender. Both are flawed tools, and they disagree with each other a lot. Ok. So one way to deal with quarreling polls is just to take their average. Which I did. And then tested, did the error get worse or better, and found that yes, the errors tended to cancel each other somewhat and now the worst error was in Pennsylvania but still 5.8%. 

I decided that I'll use both 50-state surveys but that the in-state polls from RCP should supercede these two flawed instruments, if possible. In 16 states (plus DC) there is no in-state polling at all for the month of August or early September. Those are marked in the table with the first poll numbers as 0. In those cases all we can do is to use the average of WaPo and M.C. to get something better than nothing and something we can hope is within say two points of reality in most cases, but can be off by several points.

Then there are plenty of states for which RCP has 1 or 2 polls. In those cases I use a blend, the two 50-state poll findings for that state, averaged into the 1 or 2 polls that RCP has. This gives us a pretty good number for that state and typically already about 1,500 to 2,000 or so surveys conducted. And then the best case is those 12 states for which we have 3 or more polls, they are in bold in the above table, and they we can be pretty sure, those are solid numbers (for mid-to-late August).

Now on the unskewing haha. I did a bit of correction. Because we're not using the 50-state findings in those states where several in-state polls already exist (and the two 50-state polls are less accurate so we'd only make the findings less reliable) I had to calculate out, what % should I assign to correct for the 'house bias' for these two 50-state polls. As we know it was about 3% nationally for both, but we took out one third of the poll result by those 12 states (based on population-weighting obviously). So I calculated the adjusting factor and found that for WaPo the remaining 38 states needed a 1.15% adjustment from Trump to Hillary. In the case of M.C. the corresponding figure was 1.7 also from Trump to Hillary. I didn't bother to calculate such adjustments for Johnson and Stein as they are clearly not going to win any states (now that Johnson decided to Aleppo himself).

But yes. Enjoy! I have here the 'best data' on the 50 state polling, covering 122 actual in-state polls and 77 in-state poll equivalents. The average state has 4 polls and about 3,000 interviews. At a minimum any states has 2 polls and at least 900 interviews (except DC). And the timing is from Aug 1 to Sept 7, if you want to pin a date, use Aug 18 as the date this table was most perfectly aligned to then-measured reality (according to RCP).

I hope to do this again in a month. Lets see if we get the data then. Now, for those who want to see the above in Alphabetical order, here is that version of the same table:

ALL 50 STATE POLLING IN AUGUST, SORTED ALPHABETICALLY BY STATE 
(199 in-state polls and/or 50-state in-state portion aggregated via RCP, WaPo and M.C.)
(States in bold are ones that have 3 or more real in-state polls, unbolded states include the extracted '50 state' poll data)

State . . . . . EV . . . Polls . . Clinton . Trump . Johnson . Stein . . Undec . . Plus/Minus

Alabama . . . . . 9 . . . 0+2 . . . 30.9% . . . 49.8% . . . 7.9% . . . 2.4% . . . 9.0% . . -18.9%

Alaska . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 30.1% . . . 37.4% . . 18.3% . . . 4.6% . . . 9.6% . . . -7.3%

Arizona  . . . . . 11 . . . 5+0 . . . 38.3% . . . 40.5% . . . 8.5% . . . 2.0% . . 10.7% . . . -2.2%

Arkansas  . . . . 6 . . . 0+2 . . . 34.2% . . . 44.0% . . 10.1% . . . 3.9% . . . 7.9% . . . -9.8%

California  . . . 55 . . . 0+2 . . . 50.2% . . . 26.0% . . . 9.3% . . . 6.0% . . . 8.6% . . +24.2%

Colorado . . . . . 9 . . . 3+0 . . . 40.0% . . . 31.5% . . 14.3% . . . 5.5% . . . 8.7% . . . +8.5%

Connecticut . . . 7 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 31.8% . . 10.2% . . . 4.2% . . . 7.4% . . +14.6%

D.C. . . . . . . . . 3 . . . 0+1 . . . 33.2% . . . . 5.3% . . . 4.9% . . . 5.3% . . 51.3% . . +28.0%

Delaware . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 43.7% . . . 31.0% . . 10.2% . . . 4.1% . . 11.1% . . +12.8%

Florida  . . . . . 29 . . . 9+0 . . . 43.9% . . . 41.1% . . . 6.2% . . . 2.1% . . . 6.7% . . . +2.8%

Georgia . . . . . 16 . . . 4+0 . . . 40.7% . . . 41.2% . . . 7.8% . . . 1.5% . . . 8.8% . . . -0.5%

Hawaii  . . . . . . 4 . . . 0+2 . . . 50.5% . . . 23.0% . . . 8.1% . . . 6.3% . . 12.2% . . +27.5%

Idaho  . . . . . . . 4 . . . 1+2 . . . 25.7% . . . 44.0% . . 14.2% . . . 4.2% . . 12.0% . . -18.3%

Illinois  . . . . . . 20 . . . 0+2 . . . 46.5% . . . 28.8% . . 10.3% . . . 4.4% . . 10.1% . . +17.8%

Indiana . . . . . 11 . . . 1+2 . . . 33.3% . . . 43.9% . . 11.3% . . . 3.5% . . . 8.1% . . -10.6%

Iowa  . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 5+0 . . . 39.0% . . . 38.2% . . . 9.0% . . . 3.0% . . 10.8% . . . +0.8%

Kansas . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 32.8% . . . 42.3% . . 13.1% . . . 3.0% . . . 8.8% . . . -9.5%

Kentucky  . . . . 8 . . . 1+2 . . . 33.0% . . . 46.9% . . . 6.8% . . . 3.6% . . . 9.7% . . -13.9%

Louisiana . . . . 8 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.7% . . . 44.8% . . . 9.4% . . . 3.2% . . 10.0% . . -12.1%

Maine . . . . . . . . 4 . . . 2+2 . . . 41.2% . . . 33.6% . . 11.3% . . . 5.0% . . . 8.9% . . . +7.6%

Maryland  . . . 10 . . . 1+2 . . . 52.7% . . . 25.2% . . . 7.6% . . . 3.9% . . 10.6% . . +27.5%

Massach . . . . 11 . . . 1+2 . . . 48.3% . . . 29.1% . . . 9.9% . . . 4.0% . . . 8.7% . . +19.3%

Michigan . . . . 16 . . . 5+0 . . . 43.4% . . . 34.8% . . . 7.4% . . . 3.4% . . 11.0% . . . +8.6%

Minnesota  . . . 10 . . . 0+2 . . . 40.1% . . . 32.8% . . 12.5% . . . 4.6% . . 10.1% . . . +7.4%

Mississippi  . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 38.9% . . . 46.5% . . . 5.0% . . . 1.6% . . . 8.1% . . . -7.6%

Missouri . . . . . 10 . . . 1+2 . . . 35.9% . . . 42.0% . . 10.7% . . . 4.0% . . . 7.4% . . . -6.1%

Montana . . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.3% . . . 41.8% . . 11.8% . . . 4.7% . . . 9.4% . . . -9.5%

Nebraska  . . . . 5 . . . 0+2 . . . 32.0% . . . 40.0% . . 14.1% . . . 4.8% . . . 9.2% . . . -7.9%

Nevada  . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 41.4% . . . 37.3% . . . 8.0% . . . 4.2% . . . 9.1% . . . +4.1%

New Hamps  . . 4 . . . 3+0 . . . 43.3% . . . 35.0% . . 10.3% . . . 3.7% . . . 7.7% . . . +8.3%

New Jersey  . . 14 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 35.4% . . . 7.3% . . . 2.9% . . . 8.0% . . +11.0%

New Mexico . . . 5 . . . 1+2 . . . 38.6% . . . 30.6% . . 18.2% . . . 4.0% . . . 8.6% . . . +8.0%

New York  . . . 29 . . . 3+0 . . . 50.0% . . . 31.0% . . . 7.7% . . . 4.3% . . . 7.0% . . +19.0%

North Carol . . 15 . . . 5+0 . . . 43.0% . . . 40.6% . . . 7.6% . . . 2.0% . . . 6.8% . . . +2.4%

North Dako . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 28.4% . . . 45.1% . . 14.2% . . . 3.1% . . . 9.2% . . -16.7%

Ohio  . . . . . . . 18 . . 40+0 . . . 42.1% . . . 37.6% . . . 8.5% . . . 3.3% . . . 8.5% . . . +4.5%

Oklahoma . . . . 7 . . . 0+2 . . . 26.7% . . . 47.3% . . 12.2% . . . 5.0% . . . 8.8% . . -20.6%

Oregon. . . . . . . 7 . . . 1+2 . . . 43.1% . . . 29.2% . . . 9.3% . . . 5.1% . . 13.4% . . +13.9%

Pennsylvan . . 20 . . . 9+0 . . . 46.0% . . . 38.3% . . . 7.0% . . . 2.6% . . . 6.1% . . . +7.7%

Rhode Island . . 4 . . . 1+2 . . . 44.3% . . . 33.7% . . 10.1% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.0% . . +10.7%

South Caro l . . . 9 . . . 2+2 . . . 37.5% . . . 41.6% . . . 7.5% . . . 2.9% . . 10.6% . . . -4.0%

South Dako  . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 29.2% . . . 41.5% . . 15.8% . . . 3.9% . . . 9.7% . . -12.4%

Tennessee  . . 11 . . . 0+2 . . . 31.4% . . . 47.5% . . . 9.1% . . . 3.0% . . . 9.0% . . -16.1%

Texas . . . . . . . 38 . . . 1+2 . . . 37.7% . . . 40.4% . . . 8.7% . . . 3.0% . . 10.2% . . . -2.6%

Utah . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 1+2 . . . 25.1% . . . 37.4% . . 18.3% . . . 3.1% . . 16.1% . . -12.2%

Vermont . . . . . 3 . . . 1+2 . . . 46.4% . . . 25.1% . . 10.5% . . . 7.9% . . 10.2% . . +21.2%

Virginia  . . . . . 13 . . . 6+0 . . . 45.8% . . . 36.0% . . . 9.6% . . . 3.5% . . . 5.1% . . . +9.8%

Washington . . 12 . . . 1+2 . . . 42.4% . . . 28.2% . . 10.5% . . . 5.2% . . 13.8% . . +14.3%

West Virgi . . . . 5 . . . 1+2 . . . 29.0% . . . 48.5% . . 11.1% . . . 3.5% . . . 8.0% . . -19.5%

Wisconsin  . . . 10 . . . 2+2 . . . 40.9% . . . 36.2% . . . 9.9% . . . 3.8% . . . 9.3% . . . +4.7%

Wyoming  . . . . 3 . . . 0+2 . . . 21.5% . . . 51.2% . . 16.0% . . . 2.6% . . . 8.7% . . -29.7%

NATIONAL . . 538 . . 199 . . . 41.5% . . . 36.3% . . . 9.3% . . . 3.7% . . . 9.2% . . . +5.2%

Note: Polls colum has first number the actual in-state polls used, the second number is if in-state numbers from '50 state' polls were included
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis based on 122 in-state polls of 4-way race, reported at Real Clear Polling average, of polls covering August or first week of September; plus 77 in-state equivalent polls extracted from the two '50-state polls' by Washington Post/SurveyMonkey and Morning Consult, for a total of 199 in-state polls or equivalent poll extractions. In rough terms about 160,000 individual interviews were part of the the data generating the above table.
The above data may be freely shared

PRELIMINARY ELECTION-NIGHT WATCHING TOOL

The above stats also give us an election-night watching tool (and now, before that, a poll-calibration tool). So what do I mean. Its a kind of 'early warning radar' if you will. The states will be called in somewhat seemingly random fashion. Partly because different states close their polling at different hours (sliding from East to West with the time zones as the sun sets) but also a clear easy-win state will be called early, and a tight race that is down to one or two percent or less, will be counted into the wee hours of the morning. (Plus some states are slow in counting).

So if we know in what order we expect the RANKING of the states to be, from most Hillary-favorable to most Trump-favorable, as some states get called, we can the see, is our guy or gal 'picking up surprising states' or 'losing sure states'. Let me post the simplifed version of the first table, so you'll see. I'll then give a few examples of how to use this

 

ALL 50 STATE POLLING IN AUGUST, SORTED BY BEST TO WORST STATES FOR CLINTON 
(199 in-state polls and/or 50-state in-state portion aggregated via RCP, WaPo and M.C.)
(States in bold are ones that have 3 or more real in-state polls, unbolded states include the extracted '50 state' poll data)

State . . . . . EV . . . Clinton . . Trump . . . Plus/Min . . Election Estimator

D.C. . . . . . . . . 3 . . . 33.2% . . . . 5.3% . . +28.0%

Maryland  . . . 10 . . . 52.7% . . . 25.2% . . +27.5% 

Hawaii  . . . . . . 4 . . . 50.5% . . . 23.0% . . +27.5% . . . 22% Trump win

California  . . . 55 . . . 50.2% . . . 26.0% . . +24.2% . . . 19% Trump win

Vermont . . . . . 3 . . . 46.4% . . . 25.1% . . +21.2% . . . 16% Trump win

Massach . . . . 11 . . . 48.3% . . . 29.1% . . +19.3% . . . 14% Trump win

New York  . . . 29 . . . 50.0% . . . 31.0% . . +19.0% . . . 13% Trump win

Illinois  . . . . . . 20 . . . 46.5% . . . 28.8% . . +17.8% . . . 12% Trump win

Connecticut . . . 7 . . . 46.4% . . . 31.8% . . +14.6% . . . . 9% Trump win

Washington . . 12 . . . 42.4% . . . 28.2% . . +14.3%

Oregon. . . . . . . 7 . . . 43.1% . . . 29.2% . . +13.9% . . . . 8% Trump win

Delaware . . . . . 3 . . . 43.7% . . . 31.0% . . +12.8% . . . . 7% Trump win

New Jersey  . . 14 . . . 46.4% . . . 35.4% . . +11.0% . . . . 6% Trump win

Rhode Island  . . 4 . . . 44.3% . . . 33.7% . . +10.7% . . . . 5% Trump win

Virginia . . . . . . 13 . . . 45.8% . . . 36.0% . . . +9.8% . . . . 4% Trump win

Michigan  . . . . 16 . . . 43.4% . . . 34.8% . . . +8.6%

Colorado . . . . . 9 . . . 40.0% . . . 31.5% . . . +8.5% . . . . 3% Trump win

New Hamps  . . 4 . . . 43.3% . . . 35.0% . . . +8.3%

New Mexico . . . 5 . . . 38.6% . . . 30.6% . . . +8.0%

Pennsylvan  . . 20 . . . 46.0% . . . 38.3% . . . +7.7%

Maine . . . . . . . . 4 . . . 41.2% . . . 33.6% . . . +7.6%

Minnesota  . . . 10 . . . 40.1% . . . 32.8% . . . +7.4% . . . . 2% Trump win

Wisconsin  . . . 10 . . . 40.9% . . . 36.2% . . . +4.7% . . . . 1% Hillary win

Ohio . . . . . . . . 18 . . . 42.1% . . . 37.6% . . . +4.5%

Nevada  . . . . . . 6 . . . 41.4% . . . 37.3% . . . +4.1% . . . . 2% Hillary win

Florida . . . . . . 29 . . . 43.9% . . . 41.1% . . . +2.8%

North Carol  . . 15 . . . 43.0% . . . 40.6% . . . +2.4% . . . . 3% Hillary win

Iowa . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 39.0% . . . 38.2% . . . +0.8% . . . . 5% Hillary win

Georgia  . . . . . 16 . . . 40.7% . . . 41.2% . . . -0.5% . . . . 6% Hillary win

Arizona . . . . . . 11 . . . 38.3% . . . 40.5% . . . -2.2% . . . . 7% Hillary win

Texas . . . . . . . 38 . . . 37.7% . . . 40.4% . . . -2.6% . . . . 8% Hillary win

South Carol . . . 9 . . . 37.5% . . . 41.6% . . . -4.0% . . . 10% Hillary win

Missouri . . . . . 10 . . . 35.9% . . . 42.0% . . . -6.1% . . . 12% Hillary win

Alaska . . . . . . . 3 . . . 30.1% . . . 37.4% . . . -7.3%

Mississippi  . . . 6 . . . 38.9% . . . 46.5% . . . -7.6% . . . 13% Hillary win

Nebraska  . . . . 5 . . . 32.0% . . . 40.0% . . . -7.9% . . . 14% Hillary win

Kansas . . . . . . 6 . . . 32.8% . . . 42.3% . . . -9.5% . . . 15% Hillary win

Montana . . . . . 3 . . . 32.3% . . . 41.8% . . . -9.5%

Arkansas  . . . . 6 . . . 34.2% . . . 44.0% . . . -9.8%

Indiana . . . . . 11 . . . 33.3% . . . 43.9% . . -10.6% . . . 16% Hillary win

Louisiana . . . . 8 . . . 32.7% . . . 44.8% . . -12.1% . . . 17% Hillary win

Utah . . . . . . . . 6 . . . 25.1% . . . 37.4% . . -12.2%

South Dako  . . 3 . . . 29.2% . . . 41.5% . . -12.4% . . . 18% Hillary win

Kentucky  . . . . 8 . . . 33.0% . . . 46.9% . . -13.9% . . . 19% Hillary win

Tennessee  . . 11 . . . 31.4% . . . 47.5% . . -16.1% . . . 22% Hillary win

North Dako . . . 3 . . . 28.4% . . . 45.1% . . -16.7% . . . 24% Hillary win

Idaho  . . . . . . . 4 . . . 25.7% . . . 44.0% . . -18.3%

Alabama . . . . . 9 . . . 30.9% . . . 49.8% . . -18.9%

West Virgi . . . . 5 . . . 29.0% . . . 48.5% . . -19.5%

Oklahoma . . . . 7 . . . 26.7% . . . 47.3% . . -20.6%

Wyoming  . . . . 3 . . . 21.5% . . . 51.2% . . -29.7%

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Analysis based on 122 in-state polls of 4-way race, reported at Real Clear Polling average, of polls covering August or first week of September; plus 77 in-state equivalent polls extracted from the two '50-state polls' by Washington Post/SurveyMonkey and Morning Consult, for a total of 199 in-state polls or equivalent poll extractions. In rough terms about 160,000 individual interviews were part of the the data generating the above table.
The above data may be freely shared

 

So now the table makes some sense. If CNN calls say North Carolina for Hillary early in the evening, then essentially every state above NC will go to Hillary as well. The race is somewhere below that. To find where it might be, wait until you get the next call below NC so lets say South Carolina is called for Trump. Now we know the final election result will be between NC and SC and Hillary has won, her national margin will be between 3% (North Carolina) and 10% (South Carolina). Or imagine opposite. Suddenly early in the night they call Pennsylvania for Trump. Now everything below will go to Trump. Trump has now won the election, the question is how high will his margin be (and we await either for more good states for Trump above PA or the first state above that, to go for Hillary which tells us the limit of how bad would her loss be at the most).

This is the EARLY preliminary version of this tool. I will definitely have a more accurate measure before election day if by on other reason, then to update all individual in-state polls that RCP will report. But hopefully WaPo and Morning Consult will also repeat their 50-state polls so we get the full table updated before election day with data closer to the actual election and thus less likely to have error. But yes. If you think the election will be a massive 8% blowout for Hillary, then she could win all the states above the 'Hillary wins 8%' level and the tightest election count would be that state at that point (in this case, Texas). If so, then Texas would be likely counted into the early morning hours, and be decided by less than one percent either way. Like how Florida was last time in 2012 or how Indiana and Missouri were in 2008. And don't worry, I will of course return to this tool also well before election day so you can prepare for your election-night fun... :-)

For those who want to see more numbers, I am doing a weekly count-down of the most critical numbers (polling, TV ads, etc) always on a Tuesday until election day. The first weekly numbers summary from this week Tuesday is here. And I am doing the full race Scorecard monthly (which has all the numbers from fundraising to campaign offices to staffing etc, as well as my ratings of both sides). The Sept 1 Scorecard is here. Meanwhile if you want to read my analysis of what is the Trump Cult and why Trump Isn't its Leader, enjoy this. But if you prefer humor, here is the Trump-to-English Dictionary.

Comments

[Fica]

Carly Fiorina just endorsed Trump. Smart Woman :)

[Winter]

Given the fast Troll response, Tomi must be have good numbers.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Winter

Its the same guy, uses a different name. Obviously I already deleted the first comment. Incidentally, that 'Fica' is also the same guy, uses different names but I see where they all came from. Stupid. Has me on some alert, is almost always the first to troll the blog and I delete the comments, except a few that I keep for .. sentimental reasons haha...

but the numbers are pretty amazing haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Winter]

@Tomi
Every blog has its long term trolls. What amazes me most is the amount of time and effort people are willing to spend on a blog whose subject they hate? Some people seem to be unable to live when some words are written.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Winter

Yeah its an interesting experiment. You've seen a few of our .. ahem .. problem children. At least one keeps coming back, and I think we've kind of modified the behavior a bit, to be less hostile (perhaps 'growing up' a bit) but yeah several have been expelled who then have that urge to keep coming back still and trolling the blog (or me). But you can't please everybody, thats something I learned long ago and not to let it bother me haha. I do what I do out of my passion(s) and the blog (and Twitter) is a wonderful place to hang out with like-minded people, and it also delights me to hear occasionally from others (some only privately, via email or DM on TW) and sometimes meeting a fan in person, who has never commented but remembers blogs written years ago, so clearly has been here for a long time. I see the visitor stats and where the visitors come from so I also know, we have a regular readership even if I haven't posted anything for two weeks haha

And I try to bring good value content on mobile/tech topics where I can think of any. Like now am working on a Pokemon Go related piece. Hoping to post it soon.

But also reading the comments is great. I wish I had the chance to reply to everybody always.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[paul]

The numbers look good!

[Dave Barnes]

When Nate Silver shows Hills winning with 400+, then I will relax.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

Some tidbits. First off, how to waste 600,000 dollars. Thats a nice house. Thats a GARAGE of Aston Martins. New Aston Martins. Thats what Trump wasted in Michigan on TV ads in one week. And to make matters worse, he's now off the air in Michigan. A local politician said, once you go on the air, you stay on the air; once you come off, the state is done. You get nothing by a splash of TV ads. You have to stay on it. Trump went stupidly into Michigan, a state he has no chance of winning and yes, he threw away 8% of total TV ad budget of the week, on a futile attempt. Ok, at least he seems to have noticed - thats a really dumb thing to do.

Hillary hasn't shown one TV ad in Michigan since the primary in March. She knew. And now Trump is out of Michigan. So. Nice waste (as well as a day in Detroit, also wasted).

Hey, talking of days wasted. Mr Political Genius is now headed to.. Maryland. Yes. Check out our 50 state math. A state that is 27% against him. And he wastes an event there! Ok, go ahead Mr Trump. (very clearly Conway is on her way out, this is sheer madness now)

Well, then on polling, Indiana. My model says it should be about an 10% state for Trump. What is the poll out today? 7% for Trump. So Trump is trending worse now (in Indiana) vs what the Aug 18 date suggested Indiana was. This is how we can use the table to also consider incoming new polling data, is it moving toward one candidate or the other.

A bunch of Republican-leaning Quinnipiac Senator polls show modest leads to threatened Republican Senators. I am thinking this may be one of those Q polls that seem to occasionally pop up when they 'need' some boost. Rubio is up on this one for example. But yeah, its going to be a tough race with the Senate flip.

In issues, gosh, Trump gave an interview for Russia Today and he was saying nasty stuff about the USA. What else is new. If Putin makes the slightest move into Ukraine, Trump is going to be so destroyed for his Russia connections. I can't believe that he isn't already.

Hillary has cut a devastating new anti-Trump TV ad and she had a press conference where she got a bunch of nasty hits on Trump.

Obama is back in the game laughing at Trump.

The main Pro-Hillary SuperPAC reported double the revenues vs July, of over 20 million dollars.

Thats most of the big things happening.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[deadonthefloor]

I'd like to know if these polls account for 'millennials', or really those without landline communication.

Seems to me that CNN had a poll where all the millennial data was N/A.

They will be the biggest surprise in this election, because no one can reach them for polling data.

[Millard Filmore]

Interesting information about Trump's charity is floating into public view. The payment to Pam Bondi's re-election fund is well known, but it does not stop there.

"Donald Trump’s charitable foundation gave $100,000 in 2014 to a conservative activist group that was used to help finance a federal lawsuit against New York state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman — the same public official who was suing the real estate mogul for fraud over the operations of Trump University."

[...]

"And both of these political contributions—for Bondi and against Schneiderman—were paid out through a “charitable foundation” where Donald Trump rarely makes personal contributions, but does encourage those who want to do business with him to make a deposit. Which makes it sound very much like Donald Trump managed to combine a classic pay-for-play scheme and money laundering all in one neat package."

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/9/1568385/-The-Trump-Foundation-s-biggest-contribution-wasn-t-charity-it-was-an-attack

[sgtrock]

@Millard;

Check the comments for that Daily Kos story, though. Quoting from one:

==
The IRS will have no objection to Trump’s contributing to the Citizens United Foundation, a 501 c 3 offshoot of Citizens United, dedicated to “education.” You and I may not like the Citizens United Foundation, but it is a legal charity. It was legal for the Trump Foundation to contribute $100,000 to the Citizens United Foundation.

Furthermore, the Citizens United Foundation is separate from Citizens United. The Citizens United Foundation did not sue Schneiderman.

Trump gives us so many avenues of attack. We must not get distracted by charges with no merit, and this one has no merit.
==

[Millard Filmore]

@sgtrock: Right, thanks for that. It is legal from an IRS point of view ... but fodder for a Bribe-Blackmail perspective. Very bad optics (bleah).

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Nate Silver at 538 Blog talks about the differences in the '50 state' polling method vs individual states and some reasons why '50 state' polls may have more error than individual states. A good read for math nerds and explaining why in-state polls likely more accurate than that state's result out of any '50 state' survey.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls/?ex_cid=538twitter

Which seems to suggest my methodology here is kind of the 'best possible measure' we can achieve out of the info available in the public domain haha. Not bad again, for the CDB blog eh? We go slavishly by the numbers, wherever that may lead us... :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

So now we wait for the next set of polls. I'm really curious to see how things move this month.

Nice work Tomi.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Follow-up time. A Hispanic voter weekly tracking poll had Trump support fallen to 11.2% the last week before Mexico & Arizona. Now they are up with their first poll after Arizona. Where did Trump go? He's now at 10.5% for Hispanic vote (Hillary 76.8%, 12.5% pick someone else). So yes, if we remember the GOP Autopsy of Romney in 2012 said that the GOP has to get 40% Hispanic vote in 2016 or they won't win the White House. Trump is now at 10.5%. IF Hispanics are 12% of the voter turnout, that difference (40% vs 10.5%) means 3 POINTS in the national election. Trump as the historically horrid Hispanic candidate, all alone by his racist vitriol is causing a 3% loss in NATIONAL Republican vote. Most of those will also drag down the other races on the same ticket.

What did Arizona accomplish explicitly? Of the VERY few very conservative Hispanics LEFT with Trump, Arizona pushed away ever 1 in 13 Trumpists that were left. That is how toxic he is. And thats how dumb Arizona was. It did not win Trump any more racist white KKK Nazi votes that he had not already locked in.

Where will this impact? Most of all Hispanic South. California won't matter. Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado - are beyond Trump's reach. FLORIDA, the battleground will be lost because of the Hispanic vote. And Texas and Arizona will be in play (Arizona won) because of this stupid behavior by the GOP candidate who read the Autopsy, and decided to do the opposite of what the GOP said has to be done. Smart move. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

Trump and Pence have successfully remade the Republican Party into the Russian Party. Glad I got out when that party was merely insane and stupid.

Trump attacks U.S. foreign policy, political press corps on state-owned Russian television network

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/08/trump-attacks-u-s-foreign-policy-political-press-corps-in-state-owned-russian-television-network/

Pence agrees with Trump: Calls Putin stronger than Obama

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/mike-pence-agrees-trump-putin-227913

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Finally found that last piece I've wanted to find, a website with history of the 2 campaigns for their campaign stops. Not yet perfect but they track all since June and its as I've been pointing out. Tons of bizarre Trump visits in non-battleground states but he also has spent a lot of time in the areas where the race is happening. Hillary very disciplined to campaign where the race is happening, only rarely elsewhere, for some photo op etc. Check out the interactive maps here

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-maps-show-where-clinton-and-trump-are-fighting-the-hardest-2016-08-18

Now onto going forward. Trump next week. 2 more dumb stops one in Maryland (extremely blue state) and the other in Texas (should be safe red state and as Hillary isn't campaigning there, its dumb of Trump to do so).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

No, this is better. This is the source data for the above. Its called 'Party Time' blog and has all public events from both sides.

http://politicalpartytime.org/calendar/20160807/

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[grouch]

Tomi:

I think you may have underestimated the Putin appeal in the Red states. (Still having difficulty equating Republican and Russia, but that's the way the reports indicate now). This may be even more significant than the advertisers' desire to maintain a horse race. The alternate reality propaganda is the strongest I've ever witnessed, going back to Johnson - Goldwater.

Gohmert Goes Full Health Truther In Riff About ‘Mentally Impaired’ Clinton
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/louie-gohmert-values-voter-summit-clinton-mentally-impaired

[grouch]

Grand Old Putin: Donald Trump delivers the Republican Party to the Russian Federation
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/9/1568307/-Grand-Old-Putin-Donald-Trump-delivers-the-Republican-Party-to-the-Russian-Federation

"History will always recall the moment when John F. Kennedy faced aggression by Nikita Khrushchev and declared in no uncertain terms ...

“He has big plans for Russia. He wants to edge out its neighbors so that Russia can dominate oil supplies to all of Europe. … Hats off to the Russians.”

And the deep conviction on human rights that drove Jimmy Carter to tell Leonid Brezhnev ...

“I think our country does plenty of killing also.”
"