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« Election Scorecard Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: Aug 1, 2016 (plus my updated forecast) | Main | Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had »

August 11, 2016



Quotes from the above link:

History tells us that for right-wing populist movements to succeed, a number of things need to be in place. For one thing, they need a narrative that mainstream political leaders, and political parties, are guilty of not merely incompetence but betrayal. The most notorious example is the “stab-in-the-back” myth, widely believed in Germany after 1918.


So is this what Trump is up to—diligently seeking to create an enduring America First movement that will eventually supplant the Republican Party? I wouldn’t give him that much credit. He’s precisely the self-centered, shortsighted, and insecure figure he appears to be, and he’s now flailing around for excuses to explain a humiliating defeat in the making. In his interview with CNBC, he said, “If, at the end of ninety days, I’ve fallen short . . . it’s O.K. I go back to a very good way of life.”


Billy West, a voice actor from Futurama, has started to quote Trump through the voice of the dim witted military commander Zapp Brannigan, running a fake campaign with a slogan #MakeAmericaBrannigan. You can probably guess that this was all over internet yesterday. It's not only that these quotes fit perfectly with the character, but additionally, it's probably one of the best and smartest ways to deal with somebody like Trump; they do not like to be laughed at.

It's just that after this mess the Republican party will have a lot of self-reflecting to do to figure out how they could possibly approve Trump for the presidential race, and how "nobody saw this coming".

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So on the worst-run Campaign in history. Trump is down 7% nationally. He is down more at this point in time, by comparision, in two weeks after the last of 2 conventions, than any candidate in the early years of this century (W Bush, John Kerry, John McCain & Mitt Romney). Incidentally, each of the candiates who was ahead 2 weeks after the last convention (Al Gore, W Bush, Obama & Obama) went onto win the popular vote in November (Al Gore lost Presidency but won more votes nationally). And Trump is further behind, with only 88 days left. This is when you need all hands on deck, to be super-focused, to do only really the most important stuff.

So enter Donald J Trump: Political Genius. He is campaigning in Connecticut.

(For those not deeply into the Electoral College math, Connecticut is one of the safest 'blue states' that votes always Democratic, Trump has zero chance of winning in CT. Also its neighboring states are all blue, so its not even some bizarre 'the neighbor state benefits' because Rhode Island, Massachussetts, New York State and New Jersey all are also totally blue states that Trump can't win. This is sheer madness and a total waste of his time).

Some little tidbits. A Trump regional office boss pulled a gun, pointed it at a Trump worker's knee, and threatened to shoot the kneecap off the person's knee. That regional boss has now resigned.

The Trump New Jersey office has shut down. Why did he have one there in the first place?

The Trump campaign staff are said to be suicidal and hoping to leave the team but have nowhere to go. Also many conservatives are saying anyone with Trump 2016 on their CV/resume will not ever land a job in politics.

Trump might be having some trouble recruiting haha. But also, apparently, he pays far above going rates, to try to get some talent to come in. (what 'talent' ??) Campaign staff bitch that Trump isn't doing anything sane and are pointing fingers and laying blame. Thats always a good sign... but I've never heard of this 88 days before Election day

Mitch McConnell says its likely he'll lose his gavel in the Senate, that the GOP will lose Senate seats because of Trump and lose their majority. Paul Ryan won't comment on Trump. Reince Preibus says to ignore all the bad polls and bad press about Trump.

Republicans have resorted to 'unskewing' polls. Online they are circulating a bogus urban legend 'poll of real people'.

Trump still hasn't bought TV ad time and he isn't hiring en masse for a ground game. But get this, Trump says he DOESN'T NEED a ground game. (So what the final poll say Nov 7, actual election result may be DRAMATICALLY better for Hillary, if only one side has a ground game and the other doesn't - this will devastate down-ticket races).

Manafort haha is in the news, he has said his boss is perfectly on focus and everything is going great (I take this to mean that his boss has been behaving particularly bizarrely, even for Trump being Trump).

Now where ARE they focusing now? The 'stolen election' myth they are now setting up. Trump is declaring that we're headed to a rigged election and his victory will be stolen from him. And then yes, he is again wasting effort into this silly idea. Rather than build his volunteer and Get-out-the-vote team, he is now recruiting polling monitors to make sure the voting is not fraudulent. That is up on their website. Once again he is not doing what is necessary, but wasting very valuable resources to futile pointless and not-helping activities. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

So that brings me to 538 blog and an interesting observation by Nate Silver. The focus on the election being rigged - is SUPPRESSING the REPUBLICAN enthusiasm to vote. If they sense this is a stolen election anyway, they won't bother to come to vote.

The trends is now clear in several polls. If a 'Registered Voter' screen is used to a polling result, you get x result. Usually in past years, if 'Likely Voter' screen is used on the same poll, the Republican does a bit better - because Republicans in most years are more loyal voters than Democrats. This year EVEN THAT is now reversed !!!! (gosh, the Gods of elections may have something truly aweful prepared for Hillary, if they intend to balance this out before November gosh, its never EVER EVER been this lopsided on every measurement). So yes, this year, its the Democrats who are more eager to vote, and Republicans are discouraged. What does Trump's latest rhetoric about a stolen election do? IT MAKES IT WORSE for him.

Every bit of news out of the election is either bad news for Trump or good news for Hillary. Its the classic coin-toss joke 'heads I win, tails you lose'.

Again, I hope to see the full funding race (SuperPACs missing) and the ground-game staff, and the TV ad spending and TV interview visibility; plus most importantly a calendar of where the two candidates are spending their time, but this is incredibly and totally unprecedentedly lopsided. EVERYTHING Trump is doing is making things worse. And the resulting news is consistently that more Republicans are saying they will vote for her, etc. And the polls keep tilting into her favor. South Carolina (a very reliable red state) was just polled to be 2 points behind for Hillary.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Nate Silver on 538 blog has modelled a scenario of a Hillary Clinton blow-out with a 16% victory. He is not saying its his forecast, he says they estimate a one in three chance this election has Hillary with a double-digit victory and obviously this extreme case for them is less likely than that. But he did model it, and he points out that usually most campaigns tend to fight 'to a draw' on most things that matter from issues to candidates to ground game, but now Hillary is doing everything right and Trump everything wrong. Its possible that this then turns the election into a rout. His 16% scenario is very close to my 18% prediction and his states won list has 11 states remaining with Trump, almost the same as my 10 state list). Worth reading, because Nate also goes through the intervals, of what if the race becomes more than 6% but less than 16% haha, and which states would flip first. Very good read

And I meanwhile am concerned that my 18% is not counting accurately how large the bloodbath will be, but obviously I do need more data to make my next revision. I will do that at the end of August of course.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

Guns and Knees:

Reince is doing his job, trying to save Trump:

Stolen election:

Millard Filmore

Some Get-Out-The-Vote and Ground-Game information:

"Politico reports: The Trump campaign has asked the RNC to open offices in all 50 states, ... An RNC source said it was a “fool’s errand” and more for Trump’s “ego” and for “bragging” purposes, instead of deft campaign strategy. The source said it was a “personal request” by Trump to have offices in all 50 states."


Others agree with Tomi

Has Donald Trump hit bottom?

(Spoiler, the answer is Not likely)


Once is a mistake, twice is incompetence, thrice is?

Now Trump Spokeswoman Katrina Pierson Is Falsely Blaming Obama For The US Invasion Of Afghanistan

Wayne Borean

Donald Trump's other campaign foe - the Media

Wayne Borean

Inside the failing mission to save Donald Trump from himself



Wonder what is the result of Trump's idiotic war with the media? Check this:

Every single reporter, blogger, anchor, journalist etc. that dares to offer negative comments regarding Trump's nonsense is a traitor. So yes, Tomi, you are a traitor too!



LOL But Tomi isn't even a U.S. citizen. Kinda hard to charge him with treason, doncha think? ROFLMASPIMP



Rational arguments are useless. Tomi remains a traitor regardless of nationality.

Other traitorous thoughts... I've watched one of Trump's recent speeches and the first thing that struck me was that he looked very tired, very low energy. And then I stumbled upon this video that may explain why he looked so tired: lack of sleep.


Today Muslims, tomorrow Latinos, then Jews, until the white paradise is reached.

How the GOP is betraying America



It is totally weird: Trump actually claims Hillary is unfit for president because she sleeps.

Beware Of Women Who Sleep


@cornelius and Wayne

Btw, all (crypto) fascist movements worship ignorance and stupidity.


And about the worship of ignorance:

The Worship of Donald Trump …Ignoramus-in-Chief … and What It Says about America’s Education System


How the democrats could win the house, if absolutely everything works out for the:


As the tea party is made up of fools, I had occasionally wondered why they weren't separated from their money. I don't wknder anymore. They have been fleeced expertly by the GOP well and good.

How We Killed the Tea Party
"Greedy super PACs drained the movement with endless pleas for money to support “conservative” candidates—while instead using the money to enrich themselves. I should know. I worked for one of them."

No wonder they are mad as hell. Obviously theyblame Hillary and Obama.



I'd include Bill in that list as well. Bill, Hillary and Obama have positioned the Democratic Party in the middle of the political spectrum so neatly that they pushed the Republican Party away from the middle. As the Republican Party shrunk (in the moderate area), the Tea Party's importance grew within the party as a whole. Reagan's legacy is gone. So yes, Bill, Hillary and Obama should indeed be blamed for Tea Party's emergence.

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