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« Election Scorecard Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: Aug 1, 2016 (plus my updated forecast) | Main | Peak Trump - Manafort No Longer In Charge - Trump Has Removed Only Sane Leader He Had »

August 11, 2016

Comments

Winter

And here is how psychopaths do it (narcissists are a lot like psychopaths):

How to spot a psychopath: Expert reveals the traits to look out for in others and how to tell if YOU have the personality disorder
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3379996/How-spot-psychopath-Expert-reveals-traits-look-charm-eccentricity-manipulation.html

Winter

@Millard
""all the polls are “skewed” to make it look like he is not winning, in order to discourage his voters, and to also make it look less suspicious when they rig the election to make Clinton win even though Trump will actually get 100% of all the votes.""

An uprising of Trumpists after a lost election will obliterate the GOP.

Winter

GOP insiders: Trump can't win
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-votes-gop-insiders-226932
"'Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’' said an Iowa Republican


I think Trump will claim to have seen that video

Winter

More defections?

Republicans Urge RNC to Cut Off Donald Trump From Funding: Report
http://patch.com/us/across-america/republicans-urge-rnc-cut-donald-trump-funding-report?google_editors_picks=true&google_editors_picks=true

Winter

I think this quote says it all:

"And here’s the ultimate irony. It’s the burnt sienna blowhard the head-loppers want to see in the Oval Office. A Syrian rebel I’ve known for quite a while, and who’s in the trenches fighting both Assad and ISIS, told me the other day, apropos of nothing, that jihadists on the ground pine for a Trump victory in November. Why? I asked. “Because he will destroy America before they will.”"

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/11/trump-s-new-conspiracy-spew-obama-founded-isis.html

When I lay awake at night, I am haunted by the tought that all that stands between Trump and the presidency is a hearth attack.

grogxd

So let's say... Hillary dies of a heart attack the days after is not possible for the DNC to change the ballots(let's ignore the existence of Kaine). Would that unfailingly mean that Trump will win?

I could lead to a bizarre situation in which Stein endorses Johnson after some minor agreements to try to avoid a Trump victory.

Obviously McMuffin would give up in his pitiful candidacy too.

I don't know about the numbers of a highly speculative scenario like this but I have the feeling of it being a tight race.

Wayne Borean


Phil Robertson will run for President...

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/progressivesecularhumanist/2016/08/duck-dynasty-star-considers-run-for-president-to-fight-secularism/

Mike

Isn't that so that name stays on the ballot even if candidate is dead? So then Kaine would become president right away?

cornelius

@Mike
Maybe, but then people will in fact vote for Kaine vs Trump. It seems that Kaine is less popular than Trump, so some who would've voted for Clinton, will vote for Trump. And if the election is close, a few percentage points gone the wrong way could tip the balance for Trump.

Meanwhile a bunch of polls came out today and caused NY Times to move Clinton's odds to new heights at 88%. Also 538 has Clinton's chances at 87.5%.

Mike

If Trump fanatic would now kill Hillary it is psychologically absolutely improbable that anyone from her current supporters would turn to vote for Trump. In such case if Kaine would loose, it could be only because some of her voters would turn to Stein or Johnson or any other outsider. Which is possible but not probable, some would turn that way, but no so many. Kaine would be absolutely acceptable for 99.99% Hillary voters and would just win.

I would rather be afraid of last moment kgb style "wikileak" from famous emails - something completely disqualifying and 100% false but too late to deny successfully. Wouldn't be the first time russians would use such method. And they have money and "friends" in so many high volume medias that they would have enough power to do that

Winter

Here is an explanation that offers a possible solution:

http://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/20431

" These electors, chosen nowadays by state party organizations, meet in each state in the middle of December to cast their votes. No Constitutional provision or federal law requires electors to vote in accordance with the popular vote in their states, but the electors are made eligible to vote by being on the slate provided by the party that won the state's popular vote. "

In the worst case, the electors could simply vote for someone else.

cornelius

@Mike
Well you didn't mention the cause of death. I thought we were talking about a heart attack as grogxd mentioned.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

I have some thoughts but also want to go dig through the various sources I like to read so I'll just do two things off the top of my head. First on Trump.

He's now calling his nonsense 'sarcasm'. Haha. So Obama is the founder of ISIS and Hillary its MVP - no, that was just sarcasm, can't you take a joke? Trump ran that argument multiple times on two days to crowds chanting 'lock her up' etc, and now its 'sarcasm'. Good try Trumpster.

Trump also has admitted for the first time that he is in trouble. He said it in a Trumpian way 'we have a problem' I think is how he said it Thursday-ish, I think it was the religious group meeting he had.

I think Trump has suddenly noticed, he will not win this. His demeanor on Thursday was very different from before, subdued, he seemed nearly catatonic and of course like a cornered wild animal, he is lashing out at every direction starting new fights - like the threat now, that he will not help raise funds for the GOP.

There is a Monday emergency 'not emergency at all' meeting by senior Trump staff and the GOP but Trump won't attend and apparently neither is Manafort (not sure if Manafort is really in charge anymore). And various Republicans now see the end is coming. Mitch McConnell has said they'll likely lose so many Senate seats, he will lose his seat as heading the majority in the Senate.

I was doing a long Twitterflood and just spotted random Tweets occasionally, sensing there is funny weird Trumpian stuff that was happening on Friday, but haven't yet read it. I didn't see big things that might signal a Politico article.

But it MAY be, that just around Wednesday eve-ish, Trump finally figured out he won't win this. And we may see now changes in his 'campaign' that reflect that reality. Certainly the way Trump had his event, made me think he may he having a nervous breakdown.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So then the other story. Polling. Not the national polls (looking mighty strong for Hillary) but the In-State polling of the battleground states. A fresh series of polls are out, and it now looks like Hillary has won.

So in the latest polling of the battleground states, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania (and already before, New Mexico of course) are at 10 point advantage for Hillary (or very close to that).

Even if Trump wins everything Romney won, plus flips Florida, Ohio, Iowa AND Nevada - he loses. Because Hillary had locked Colorado, then secured Virginia with the Kaine pick, and has built such a strong position in New Hampshire; with Wisconsin and New Mexico not realistically even in play, it was down to that trio that Trump HAS to win - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Hillary has essentially put Pennsylvania out of reach for Trump. The game is now 'essentially' over.

Of course its NOT over, a debate can alter a race dramatically; any outside event could become an 'October Surprise' like a terrorist attack or even nasty email hacks by the KGB via WikiLeaks, or obviously a Hillary heart-attack or whatever; but from the CAMPAIGN point of view. Hillary has already LOCKED the states she needs to get 272 Electoral College votes. Already now. August 13.

She is ALSO AHEAD in all other traditional battleground states, tight leads in Iowa and Ohio, a stronger lead in Florida and Nevada; plus Hillary is ahead in North Carolina and Georgia. She's very close in Arizona, almost tied there. So the race is very VERY very VERY well poised for her already. And yes, 272 EV votes are 'essentially in the bank' haha, barring some act of god or truly massive campaign-tossing external event.

Which also reflects in the Senate and House races. I told you before that if the DEMs are trying to flip the Senate and are -1 Senate Seats by RCP average 'no tossups' stage, at this point in the race, its very solid for them. As it was. Well have a guess where its now. Yes, another Senator is now 'no tossups' going to the DEMs. The Senate would be 50/50 split, which means the Vice President breaks the tie and the Democrats win the votes. As of now, RCP says if the election was today, the Senate flips.

(I am awaiting RCP's House Map)

On Hillary's map-expansion, I saw one story saying they've started the recruiting of staff into two states: yes, Arizona and Georgia. Now lets see if they spend TV ad money there and do Campaign events with Hillary there. If so, that means they really are putting those states into play. The polling is so amazingly good, its astonishing they are not there already

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


As I said earlier, I see a Hillary Total Destruction Wave hitting the Republicans. Trump is a big part of it, but there are other factors like the Libertarians realizing that the majority of Republicans are racist bigots, etc.

Winter

This is how Trump responds to losing:

Trump says he will only lose Pennsylvania if there's widespread voter fraud. That's very wrong.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

Winter

This is how Trump responds to losing:

Trump says he will only lose Pennsylvania if there's widespread voter fraud. That's very wrong.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

Winter

And Trump is making it still harder for the Republicans to regroup after the elections:

Warning of election fraud, Trump sparks fear that his backers may intimidate minority voters
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-vote-fraud-20160812-snap-story.html

Winter

An example of a truely Sisyphean task:

RNC looks to expand outreach to African-Americans
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/13/politics/republican-african-american-outreach/

I think the RNC outreach really is a better modern metaphor than rolling the rock uphill.

Winter

It is not a cult but the birth of a US racist party on par with the Front National and UKIP.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-trumps-crazy-talk-about-obama-and-isis-matters

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