The Trump Cult Is One Without A Leader. Trump is Only Its Willing Figurehead

The Trump phenomenon will be studied for decades. How could someone come out of nowhere, destroy a powerful field of veterans in politics, take the party's nomination with ease, then go down to lose in one of the biggest election landslides (my current forecast says 18% loss in November, that is based on the situation August 1, before the latest week of more Trumpian madness). But yes, WHY is Trump behaving this way. What is going on. Why is he so bizarre and why are his supporters like they are, etc. Its baffling. So I have a fresh theory. Trump is in front of a cult which he did not create, and he does not lead: he is only their figurehead.

THIS IS NO REAGAN

Most charismatic leaders will have a mission, a view, a message. Think of Bernie Sanders this cycle or of Barack Obama in 2008 or of John McCain the original Truth Express of year 2000 or of Ronald Reagan back in 1980 or of Bill Clinton in 1992. A leader who comes in with a vision, who builds his supporter base. The followers BUY INTO the leader's vision. They come to listen to him (or her) and buy into the story, the vision, the ideas, the plans, the campaign. This is not Donald Trump. Trump parachuted into an existing mob, a cult without a leader. Trump didn't know the cult or what it wanted, but Trump knew a few suitable lines to get their attention - and then Trump, very astute in reading audiences - adjusted HIS message to tune into that cult. This is why on almost every single position Trump has, he has flipped on that position. He was pro choice and is pro life. He was for the Iraq invasion and claims to have been against it. He was for the Libya intervention and now is against it. He was for taxes for the rich, now gives tax breaks to the rich. He was for reasonable gun controls now he is against those. He is like this on almost everything. The only one area where Trump has been consistent in his life is his inherent racism, which he got from his scumbag slumlord dad, Fred Trump, another racist and supporter of the KKK.

So what about this mob? This is a cult created by Fox News and the right wing media. The best test of is someone a Trump supporter is simply this: do you believe Obama was born in Kenya. Most who say yes are Trump supporters. The rest of the nation knows the truth and is not supporting Trump. It is literally the single strongest unifying factor among all Trump supporters and essentially nobody who believes Obama was born in Kenya, supports Hillary Clinton or the others. And obviously the Obama-born-in-Kenya 'birtherism' is a cult conspiracy theory peddled by Fox and the right-wing media, and its most famous proponent is of course Trump, but he didn't invent the idea. He just bought into it (stole it) like anything he does. He's too lazy to come up with anything original.

The majority of Trump's supporters but not all, of course, but the majority - believe a clear lie. They are brainwashed to believe Obama was not born in the USA. That therefore he is illegitimate as the President, that Obama is a usurper and fraud, that Obama is a fraudulent pretend-President. They also believe Obama is a Muslim and therefore at least sympathetic to the evil ISIS that lurks in every village and town, who will behead the Americans and for whom waterboarding is not good enough. This is a brainwashed delusional mis-informed cult. Not ill-informed (not knowing) but mis-informed (deliberately taught to believe a lie). They have also been innoculated against the truth to distrust anyone with college degrees especially anyone in colleges and universities; and to mistrust the 'main stream media' to which ironically, recently many of this cult have added Fox itself haha.

So just to be clear, its propaganda masters are people like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Glen Beck, Laura Ingraham and Bill O'Reilly and right wing online media like Drudge and Breitbart. This gang has built and nurtured the conspiracy nutters and partly just out of hatred of Obama but also with various other right wing talking points, created a large block of brainwashed cultists, who were without a leader. All of these journalists are sensible enough to know Obama was born in the USA and is a Christian, they just didn't want to support that view, because it was good for ratings and bad for Obama, politically, to continue the nonsense. And then all the other nasty conspiracy stuff just flowed well from that. So there is a war on Christmas (a long-standing silly Fox idea) and there is the fear the Gubermt will come and take away your guns, and Obamacare has death panels, and Obama will send the army to invade Texas, and on and on and on. Then really dangerous right-wing nutters like the Bundy family get a favorable voice on Fox and its nutty friends. There was a cult being built and fed lies and they were supported in one sector of the media - and very relevantly - the mainstream media told the truth - which meant to these cultists, the mainstream media are liars. The cult was becoming ever more pure. Brainwashed.

But they had no political leader. Nobody was that crazy to embrace this nutty wing of the edge of Republican voters. We had 17 candidates running this time last year on the Republican party. And none of the 16 before Trump were willing to go there, to claim Obama is a Kenyan that Muslims are the enemy and as a religious group should be banned. Or in close harmony (with Trump's racist heritage) that Mexicans are the enemy and should be expelled and are inherently evil, rapists and murderers. Trump came in on a 'hate the Mexicans' racist position and shocked the world - but he did not build a following around his anti-Mexico view. It was the cult of hating foreigners and non-white non-Christians, the cult built by Fox and its friends, who discovered Trump. Hey, finally someone who 'tells it like it is'. The earliest Trump supporters were true Nazis and White Supremacists and KKK members who felt ignored by both major parties but wanted someone to speak to them. The last Republican to run on a platform that spoke to them was Pat Buchanan. And now they found Trump. And Trump discovered rapid rise in polling among Republican primary voters - because these were truly a silent majority - no recent Republicans had dared to court the racist voters. And that started Trump on his rise.

MAKING IT UP, AS HE GOES ALONG

But Trump didn't join the race in June of 2015 to become President in 2016. He did it for the publicity intending to drop out by December as one of his early supporters has told us who ran an early Trump SuperPAC. Something changed in that dynamic during the Autumn. It was that cult, who found Trump. The various Fox viewers and Rush listeners and Breitbart readers who suddenly found their guy. So they came to the rallies. The rallies grew huge. And Trump didn't know what to say. He had no position, he had barely a team. He has no political views on anything. He had never built a platform. He was woefully ignorant of the very simplest Republican rhetoric and even basic talking points from abortion to the nuclear weapons. But Trump is good at listening. He would hear things his audience would yell at him. And Trump would pick up themes and ideas and then of course, he got much more from his other obsession: Twitter.

On Twitter we have seen what kind of Tweets Trump retweets. He follows the racist white supremacist blogs (because he is a racist, duh). So part of his evolving talking points were the racist white supremacists conspiracy theories; and then part are echoing what his cult was teaching him about what THEY believe. The more Trump repeated those themes, the bigger the audience responses. And again, Trump didn't know where to go with this, because he is a moral vacuum himself. He is politically an empty sheet. On any new issue he fudges around, exploring what might be a good answer. He doesn't know. And then he hears what his people love, and suddenly Trump insists this position is his, and that somehow he supposedly has held that view always.

So one, we know Trump has no personally held view other than a hatred of brown people. And we know Fox created a big delusional cult which was in need of a leader. And in came moral vacuum Trump who tossed out some of his hateful remarks, the cult found Trump, and then said, tell us more, dear leader. Its like the Monty Python movie Life of Brian, where Brian (born on the same day as Jesus Christ but in a manger next door) is suddenly forced to pretend to be The Messiah, and he makes it up, as he goes along. This is EXACTLY how Trump has been. He doesn't know what his cultists want. He throws out various thoughts as samples, and the ones that stick, those become Trump's 'strongly-held views' which he has ALWAYS held. Because his cultists refuse to face facts, Trump can claim anything he wants and his cultists will believe him.

This is an incredibly volatile and dangerous situation.

Trump has no idea himself how to do this, where to go with it, and what his view is or should be. He takes whatever works mostly from his right-wing white supremacists and conspiracy-theory Twitter sources; and the things his mob yells at him in the rallies. Then occasionally, when the GOP is really 'cross' with Trump, he takes a token pair of ideas from the GOP which he then promptly forgets. But Trump has no COMPASS or idea or purpose. He just wants the audience to love him. Which brings us to the dangerous Trumpian cocktail.

GROWTH THROUGH SUBTRACTION

Trump is a narcissist and he has become addicted to the audience adulation. Any sensible politician knows that to win an election (at least in a 2-party system) you have to win 'by addition'. So you get win your party's nomination. That is not all in your party, only the majority. Because of the other party, that means you only something like one quarter or one third of the total voter base of the nation. Now you need to UNIFY your party. That means, you 'abandon' your base, you reach out to the others of your OWN party. To unify the party. This is a major reason for the Convenion. Get the party unified. That is winning by addition. And note, its NORMAL that some of your most hard-core supporters will feel slighted, when you reach out to 'the enemy' within your own party, but that is what I mean by abandoning. You take some of the positions you political rivals in your OWN party had, to try to reach out and get their support. And some of your strongest supporters will feel unhappy about that. but its party of winning by ADDITION.

Now you get to nearly half of the electorate. Your party fully supports you. The other party will not vote for you. So now you have to AGAIN build by ADDITION, you 'abandon' your party and you pursue the middle ground, the Independent voters and the undecided voters. You PIVOT to less extreme and more moderate positions that appeal to moderate voters who are not members of your party but who are not decided to vote for the other party. This is again building by ADDITION. Its not rocket science. This is how every candidate has won in almost every election year. 

Trump hasn't done ANY of that. Trump is trying to win by SUBTRACTION. He started by winning his nomination but he never won the votes of more than 42% of Republican voters by the time Ted Cruz and John Kasich ended their runs. Trump did get many in the party to join him, but instead of using the Convention and the 3 months up to now, to unify the party, Trump divided the party and fought with his REPUBLICAN rivals, like Susana Martinez, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Paul Ryan, Kelly Ayotte, Mitt Romney, the Bush family and John McCain. This does not add to his support. It feed his BASE and it divides and expells REPUBLICANS. Today 20% of Republican voters not only don't vote for Trump, they want Trump to QUIT THE RACE. This is how bad its become.

Then the general election. After the Convention, you PIVOT and try to appeal to undecided and Independent voters in the middle. What has Trump done, he has thrown more and more of his angry right wing racist bigoted vile commentary at his base supporters, which makes them excited and agitated, but it repels moderate and Independent voters. So this is the Khan family controversy for example. Its demanding that his political rival be locked up (or assassinated). This is the stuff that his Nazi KKK core supporters will love but NO sensible candidate would EVER suggest if they want to win moderate voters in the middle, who are not Republicans but MIGHT vote for one. They need to be wooed with sensible, moderate, considerate, upbeat, positive and mild views. Not angry horrible divisive and dangerous rhetoric. Like lets abandon NATO or Russia should be allowed to keep Crimea that Putin annexed, etc. This is again the strategy of SUBTRACTION. Trump is ACTIVELY repelling voters. His performance past two weeks has seen his support fall by 15 points. Its a world-record collapse of support after a Convention. 

If you examine Trump with 'sensible' rational logical view, the only possibilities are that he wants to torpedo his own campaign and end it. That this is deliberate sabotage of his own chances; or else, he is not running a campaign. This is some other typical Trumpian scam like Trump University was not a university, it was a financial scam. Maybe Trump is just stockpiling cash from this victims and will suddenly quit the race and when everybody looks at his books, there is a mysterious disappearance and the money sits in the Cayman Islands in a Trump family account. Thats possible.

HE IS ADDICTED

But if we ignore the rational sensible view, and approach this from ADDICTION. An addict cannot behave rationally, as anyone who has loved someone who smokes or is a drug addict or alcohol addict knows. Reason and logic will not do. They are addicted. The addiction is a disease and they cannot help it. They will get their fix, no matter how stupid that behavior might be to anyone not addicted. Trump is clearly addicted to his mob's adulation. He needs it, he craves it. Trump is lost whenever he speaks to an audience that is not cheering loudly (remember the debates, or just look at how his few Teleprompter speeches went, not counting the Convention speech). Trump is desperately trying to get an audience cheer out of every line he throws. He is addicted.

And from the addiction, we know, Trump will not stay on message, he will not adopt sensible positions. He will always 'fall' to the addiction and resort to feeding red meat to his mob. And that is a dangerous path, because they need stronger dosages too. They need ever redder meat. So earlier they demanded Trump to lock her up. Now he suggested assassination. This is a slippery slope. Trump is not in control because there never was a Trumpian vision to a political future. Trump is still learning what his cult wants, and Trump adjusts to feed it.

If you scan a still-frame of a random audience shot of Trump's rally. Not the people behind him. Those are positioned. I mean the audience at large. Freeze-frame them and count. Out of 20 people 1 is a minority. So its 95% white. And male/female balance? Its 80% men. Trump's rallies are 95% white and 80% men. He's leading a rally of White Supremacist men. But the freaky scary part is, Trump seems to honestly believe, that his rallies reflect America, and that what his rallies want, is what America wants. Trump seems genuinely perplexed, that his polling in many states is down, while his rallies in those same states are euphoric. What happens in reality, is an interesting pattern - the more that state learns about Trump, the more they hate him. When Trump camped in California for three weeks, his polling in California went worse. Now when he was in Pennsylvania for nearly a week, his polling there went far worse. The more people see and hear of Trump, the more they hate what they see. But his RALLIES are rowdy and enthusiastic. They are a cult meeting.

Think of Trump like a political version of a televangelist. The charlatan 'religious' leaders who have their own TV shows who promise the world will end tomorrow, and you will burn in hell, unless you send in $19.99 right now. Call this number, operators are standing by, we accept all credit cards. Trump is in some ways acting like televangelists. But in a bizarre twist, Trump is like a professional, competent Televangelist who is suddenly brought in to lead a religion he knows nothing about. Imagine a Christian preacher suddenly asked to lead a Buddhist prayer session. You don't know ANY of the basics of the religion even. But you accidentially say a few of their core messages and they fall in love with you - hey, this guy gets it. He 'tells it like it is' while the Televangelist is truly clueless and knows nothing of this religion. That is Trump and his cult. They love him imagining Trump is their Messiah, and Trump loves the adoration but doesn't know the words, so he fumbles along and repeats those parts that get the big applause.

And think of Trump's church as one of those horrible cults like the Moonies of Reverend Moon or the Jonestown cult and its mass suicide. These are brainwashed cultists and they would really follow Trump to anything - if you remember in March, for two days, Trump was asking his rally audiences to pledge to Trump PERSONALLY, like Hitler's loyalty pledges. And again, I do not suggest Trump is Hitler but I remind readers, Trump's favorite book he used to keep by his bedside, is the translated speeches of Hitler. So how much is Trump just an admirer of Hitler's words and a white racists himself and might he be a close Nazi by his philosophy, you make that call. But his followers are not rational. They are a brainwashed cult. And differing from other cults, Trump doesn't lead this cult. He is their figurehead who has to contantly ask the guys marching right behind him (what do I say next, what should I do next). He is a mirror of what they want. He si the embodiment of the vile alternate reality invented by Fox and its right wing friends.

NOVEMBER 9 IS JUDGEMENT DAY

How does this play out? Some who were drawn into Trump's cult along the way, will be shocked by something he says, enough to get their 'rude awakening' and be repelled and then quite strongly and rapidly evolve to be totally against everything Trump stands for (he is the most deceitful politician ever to get this far in politics in the USA, which makes it ironic that his supporters still think 'Trump tells it like it is'.). Some others will have an intervention by usually close family members, ie kids and wife of a deluded father/husband etc. That is a TINY fraction of the Trump cult. Most will believe Trump over anything said by anyone and will not abandon their Messiah and will show up to vote for him on November 8. 

Their numbers are not enough (luckily) and Trump will face an epic catastrophic loss of at least 18% and Hillary will be the first woman President. But November 9 will be a horrible day for these Trumpists. Because Trump will have cost the Republicans not only the White House but also the Senate, the House and the Supreme Court. The floor will collapse from conservatives and Republicans. There will be very fierce and wide recriminations and guilt will be assigned. The Republican party will want to blame someone, and they will not accept blame on themselves. The right wing media will want to assign blame and they will not accept it on themselves. They both will conclude that Trump ran a suicidally stupid campaign - the total full fault is with Trump. He will be vilified like nobody has in modern times.

This means that Trump will not be invited to talk shows to defend himself. He will be subject to massive national and international ridicule. He will have no live audiences ever again to scream his name and cheer his vitriol. He will lose his Secret Service detail to give him a big entourage to make him seem important, with the bullet-proof limousines etc. And his campaign will have no more rallies and nothing to do. November 9 will be the roughest 'cold turkey' cure for an addict imaginable. Trump should be on suicide watch from that day, he will be in a very bad place. And none of those who supported him up to November 8, will be there for Trump on November 9. Everybody will gang up against him to blame it all on Trump.

For his cult, it will be rough. Some will never let go. Some - like we see with Sarah Palin's ever shrinking nutter base - will stay true to Trump forever. You can't cure them all. But most will get the message. It will come hard. They will feel incredibly betrayed. They will be bitter. And very many of them will get turned off from politics for a long while. And I would guess - I am not a psychologist or sociologist - that most who will return to politics or voting, will become INCREDIBLY skeptical of the right wing, its media, the Republican party, the conservatives; and totally allergic to ANY lies or ANY distortions of pure facts. They will become obsessive about total facts and truths.

Note that a significant part of the Republican party's voter base of 2016 will be in this state of rude awakening - and many will never again vote for another Republican. Trump will be poisoning much of the future of the party with his run now.

The one silver lining? The gambit of trying to win by being the racists, that will be totally debunked this cycle and we should not see another politician try this for many decades to come.

If you want to read my latest monthly (Aug 1) Election Scorecard with all the ratings & numbers & my updated Forecast it is here.

Comments

[Winter]

And here is how psychopaths do it (narcissists are a lot like psychopaths):

How to spot a psychopath: Expert reveals the traits to look out for in others and how to tell if YOU have the personality disorder
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3379996/How-spot-psychopath-Expert-reveals-traits-look-charm-eccentricity-manipulation.html

[Winter]

@Millard
""all the polls are “skewed” to make it look like he is not winning, in order to discourage his voters, and to also make it look less suspicious when they rig the election to make Clinton win even though Trump will actually get 100% of all the votes.""

An uprising of Trumpists after a lost election will obliterate the GOP.

[Winter]

GOP insiders: Trump can't win
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-votes-gop-insiders-226932
"'Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’' said an Iowa Republican

I think Trump will claim to have seen that video

[Winter]

More defections?

Republicans Urge RNC to Cut Off Donald Trump From Funding: Report
http://patch.com/us/across-america/republicans-urge-rnc-cut-donald-trump-funding-report?google_editors_picks=true&google_editors_picks=true

[Winter]

I think this quote says it all:

"And here’s the ultimate irony. It’s the burnt sienna blowhard the head-loppers want to see in the Oval Office. A Syrian rebel I’ve known for quite a while, and who’s in the trenches fighting both Assad and ISIS, told me the other day, apropos of nothing, that jihadists on the ground pine for a Trump victory in November. Why? I asked. “Because he will destroy America before they will.”"

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/11/trump-s-new-conspiracy-spew-obama-founded-isis.html

When I lay awake at night, I am haunted by the tought that all that stands between Trump and the presidency is a hearth attack.

[grogxd]

So let's say... Hillary dies of a heart attack the days after is not possible for the DNC to change the ballots(let's ignore the existence of Kaine). Would that unfailingly mean that Trump will win?

I could lead to a bizarre situation in which Stein endorses Johnson after some minor agreements to try to avoid a Trump victory.

Obviously McMuffin would give up in his pitiful candidacy too.

I don't know about the numbers of a highly speculative scenario like this but I have the feeling of it being a tight race.

[Wayne Borean]

Phil Robertson will run for President...

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/progressivesecularhumanist/2016/08/duck-dynasty-star-considers-run-for-president-to-fight-secularism/

[Mike]

Isn't that so that name stays on the ballot even if candidate is dead? So then Kaine would become president right away?

[cornelius]

@Mike
Maybe, but then people will in fact vote for Kaine vs Trump. It seems that Kaine is less popular than Trump, so some who would've voted for Clinton, will vote for Trump. And if the election is close, a few percentage points gone the wrong way could tip the balance for Trump.

Meanwhile a bunch of polls came out today and caused NY Times to move Clinton's odds to new heights at 88%. Also 538 has Clinton's chances at 87.5%.

[Mike]

If Trump fanatic would now kill Hillary it is psychologically absolutely improbable that anyone from her current supporters would turn to vote for Trump. In such case if Kaine would loose, it could be only because some of her voters would turn to Stein or Johnson or any other outsider. Which is possible but not probable, some would turn that way, but no so many. Kaine would be absolutely acceptable for 99.99% Hillary voters and would just win.

I would rather be afraid of last moment kgb style "wikileak" from famous emails - something completely disqualifying and 100% false but too late to deny successfully. Wouldn't be the first time russians would use such method. And they have money and "friends" in so many high volume medias that they would have enough power to do that

[Winter]

Here is an explanation that offers a possible solution:

http://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/20431

" These electors, chosen nowadays by state party organizations, meet in each state in the middle of December to cast their votes. No Constitutional provision or federal law requires electors to vote in accordance with the popular vote in their states, but the electors are made eligible to vote by being on the slate provided by the party that won the state's popular vote. "

In the worst case, the electors could simply vote for someone else.

[cornelius]

@Mike
Well you didn't mention the cause of death. I thought we were talking about a heart attack as grogxd mentioned.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi everybody

I have some thoughts but also want to go dig through the various sources I like to read so I'll just do two things off the top of my head. First on Trump.

He's now calling his nonsense 'sarcasm'. Haha. So Obama is the founder of ISIS and Hillary its MVP - no, that was just sarcasm, can't you take a joke? Trump ran that argument multiple times on two days to crowds chanting 'lock her up' etc, and now its 'sarcasm'. Good try Trumpster.

Trump also has admitted for the first time that he is in trouble. He said it in a Trumpian way 'we have a problem' I think is how he said it Thursday-ish, I think it was the religious group meeting he had.

I think Trump has suddenly noticed, he will not win this. His demeanor on Thursday was very different from before, subdued, he seemed nearly catatonic and of course like a cornered wild animal, he is lashing out at every direction starting new fights - like the threat now, that he will not help raise funds for the GOP.

There is a Monday emergency 'not emergency at all' meeting by senior Trump staff and the GOP but Trump won't attend and apparently neither is Manafort (not sure if Manafort is really in charge anymore). And various Republicans now see the end is coming. Mitch McConnell has said they'll likely lose so many Senate seats, he will lose his seat as heading the majority in the Senate.

I was doing a long Twitterflood and just spotted random Tweets occasionally, sensing there is funny weird Trumpian stuff that was happening on Friday, but haven't yet read it. I didn't see big things that might signal a Politico article.

But it MAY be, that just around Wednesday eve-ish, Trump finally figured out he won't win this. And we may see now changes in his 'campaign' that reflect that reality. Certainly the way Trump had his event, made me think he may he having a nervous breakdown.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

So then the other story. Polling. Not the national polls (looking mighty strong for Hillary) but the In-State polling of the battleground states. A fresh series of polls are out, and it now looks like Hillary has won.

So in the latest polling of the battleground states, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania (and already before, New Mexico of course) are at 10 point advantage for Hillary (or very close to that).

Even if Trump wins everything Romney won, plus flips Florida, Ohio, Iowa AND Nevada - he loses. Because Hillary had locked Colorado, then secured Virginia with the Kaine pick, and has built such a strong position in New Hampshire; with Wisconsin and New Mexico not realistically even in play, it was down to that trio that Trump HAS to win - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Hillary has essentially put Pennsylvania out of reach for Trump. The game is now 'essentially' over.

Of course its NOT over, a debate can alter a race dramatically; any outside event could become an 'October Surprise' like a terrorist attack or even nasty email hacks by the KGB via WikiLeaks, or obviously a Hillary heart-attack or whatever; but from the CAMPAIGN point of view. Hillary has already LOCKED the states she needs to get 272 Electoral College votes. Already now. August 13.

She is ALSO AHEAD in all other traditional battleground states, tight leads in Iowa and Ohio, a stronger lead in Florida and Nevada; plus Hillary is ahead in North Carolina and Georgia. She's very close in Arizona, almost tied there. So the race is very VERY very VERY well poised for her already. And yes, 272 EV votes are 'essentially in the bank' haha, barring some act of god or truly massive campaign-tossing external event.

Which also reflects in the Senate and House races. I told you before that if the DEMs are trying to flip the Senate and are -1 Senate Seats by RCP average 'no tossups' stage, at this point in the race, its very solid for them. As it was. Well have a guess where its now. Yes, another Senator is now 'no tossups' going to the DEMs. The Senate would be 50/50 split, which means the Vice President breaks the tie and the Democrats win the votes. As of now, RCP says if the election was today, the Senate flips.

(I am awaiting RCP's House Map)

On Hillary's map-expansion, I saw one story saying they've started the recruiting of staff into two states: yes, Arizona and Georgia. Now lets see if they spend TV ad money there and do Campaign events with Hillary there. If so, that means they really are putting those states into play. The polling is so amazingly good, its astonishing they are not there already

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayne Borean]

As I said earlier, I see a Hillary Total Destruction Wave hitting the Republicans. Trump is a big part of it, but there are other factors like the Libertarians realizing that the majority of Republicans are racist bigots, etc.

[Winter]

This is how Trump responds to losing:

Trump says he will only lose Pennsylvania if there's widespread voter fraud. That's very wrong.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

[Winter]

This is how Trump responds to losing:

Trump says he will only lose Pennsylvania if there's widespread voter fraud. That's very wrong.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

[Winter]

And Trump is making it still harder for the Republicans to regroup after the elections:

Warning of election fraud, Trump sparks fear that his backers may intimidate minority voters
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-vote-fraud-20160812-snap-story.html

[Winter]

An example of a truely Sisyphean task:

RNC looks to expand outreach to African-Americans
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/13/politics/republican-african-american-outreach/

I think the RNC outreach really is a better modern metaphor than rolling the rock uphill.

[Winter]

It is not a cult but the birth of a US racist party on par with the Front National and UKIP.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-trumps-crazy-talk-about-obama-and-isis-matters